Mafia 17: The Old Pond - Game over!

[Werebear]

Werebear confirming,
but wonders how one drowns stones.
Bad Leonidas.

So... we're frogs trying to find rocks to drown. The hungry crane is dead, but the horny male doc frog(s) are still around.

Have I summed the game up enough? I'll have to read back through and see if anything sticks out.

[Werebear]

Read the thread have I.
posts tangled like a cat's yarn -
I should be working.

Well, I've read the thread (sorry the first haiku line sounded like Yoda) and three people stand out. Unfortunately, they're also three of the biggest contributors.

DP came out boldly and accused someone of lurking who wasn't, but he supposedly recounted, then retracted.

massive seems like he's throwing the town curveballs, sidetracking and distracting. He's much more suspicious than DP in my eyes.

But most of all, the thing that concerns me is mathcam. When I'm scum, and I find myself in a bandwagon that isn't against scum, I have pulled out before the lynch, all of a sudden "feeling that the accused is innocent". This keeps my name off the list of players who lynched the townie, so when analysis is done, I look better for not having lynched them. Mathcam acknowledged that what he did would have been suspicious if he were mafia himself... which doesn't alleviate my fears. And I know the accused wasn't lynched, but if I were in the situation mathcam was in, I wouldn't have revoted to tip the scales at that point either.

While still worrying about massive, I'm going to

Vote: Mathcam

...now, back to creating reports concerning grade 4 and 8 math and english scores...

[Werebear]

and I see I'm a slow poster, massive hadn't posted that when I started typing.

[Werebear]

I was kinda wondering if Corsato was lurking too, but here he is. And the scum part was just a theory, mathcam.

[Werebear]

I also believe in voting for lurkers, but if Diotima is indeed MIA, then what happens is we get 2 votes away from the lynch, and then wait for a replacement. I'm going to wait to see what happens with the mod-poke of Diotima before casting my lot in.

I think I've advertised my suspicions enough of mathcam, but they're not enough to go on, so

Unvote: mathcam

for the time being. That doesn't mean I won't revote him if need be.

[Werebear]

Well, I did have massive on my list right below mathcam. Unless someone has a better target, I'll vote massive later today.

[Werebear]

You know what? I'm willing to off a quiet one. Leonidas, is Diotima being replaced? If not,

Vote: Diotima

. I hate lurkers, (yes, I know I've fit that description more than once myself, thank you), and massive just isn't coming off as scummy as he seemed to before. If we're going to lose someone, at least let it be a quiet one.

[Werebear]

that last sentence should have read "lose someone

randomly

. You always notice between hitting send and when the screen clears.

[Werebear]

Unvote: ben

. No sense starting off on the wrong foot, especially when we have TRUE lurkers among us.

Code: Select all

Untrod Tripod    - 1/31 entire last post - "Maybe I just don't have anything to say"
Kerplunk         - 2/18
Saberkitty       - 2/18
Flying Dutchman  - 2/22
Macros           - 2/22

Everyone else posted yesterday or today. Of the lurkers, SK posted in the Vacation thread, everyone else AFAIK has been active in other threads. Given that, and UT's last post,

Vote : Untrod Tripod

[Werebear]

*agrees with Dragon Phoenix* I've seen plenty of players "miscount" and post a "bah scene" (Abbreviated BS?) pretending that they thought they were lynched. I don't think I've done it yet, but someday I'll aspire to it. *grin* Of course, I'm a replacement, so though I've read the posts before I arrived, I may have missed some things.

[Werebear]

I hope those weren't spelling exams, Macros.

[Werebear]

this is exciting.

[Werebear]

...and it's another fine position we find ourselves in. I have no idea if UT is mafia, seeing as he hasn't said much at all... but I'm leaning towards voting UT to keep things cleaner. If a replacement comes in, we either unvote and start searching again, or pester the poor sod who's coming in a sucky position, townie or mafia.

So I'm considering voting, hoping UT was a lurking mafia. Any thoughts on this?

[Werebear]

I didn't believe in a copless game, DP, until I ran one.

Vote: UT

let's roll the dice.

[Werebear]

There was another replacement lined up! ME!

[Werebear]

Nanook, there are only four different roles in this game.

TOWNIES (female frogs)
MAFIA (stones)
DOCS (male frogs)
SERIAL KILLER (crane, dead)

...so EVERYONE is going to claim "female frog". Docs, mafia, townies. I don't consider anyone's claim helpful at all.

[Werebear]

after you do that, massive, you can visit this site. *laugh*

And, big_kahunia, this game has no cops... so I would be very surprised if the number of mafia was more than 3.

[Werebear]

This is getting silly. I still have the same suspicions, and don't know how they can be alleviated. But for now,

Unvote: massive

. I'm going to wait and hope the posts increase, or if a deadline is imposed I'm reinstating the massive vote and hoping we get a mafia this time after.

[Werebear]

Whoa, massive... talk about putting words in my mouth.

So you're saying you're OK with lynching me if a deadline comes along, even though you know think I'm innocent, in the hopes that you will get a Mafia tomorrow?

First, I'm going to assume you meant the word "think" and not the word "know", you put both there. No, I don't think you're innocent. My first line was that I still have the same suspicions. You were one of them, remember? From when I first replaced? *shakes head* Of course, I don't know you're guilty either.

[Werebear]

All right, All right, pick on the poor mindless bear.

Unvote: everyone.

I really thought once Nanook replaced UT, I switched my vote to massive. I think I'll sit back and see what everyone else digs up for a bit, maybe I'll re-read the thread.

[Werebear]

*holds head in paws* How are we supposed to play this way?

[Werebear]

Vote: FD

. If he's replaced, we have to start all over. I'm hoping mathcam is onto something.

[Werebear]

This post is kind of a summary, don't jump on me for restating the obvious.

Personally, that death scene screams "Doc protected stone, stones killed doc". Unfortunately, SK never posted who she trusted, or didn't trust, so we can't go by her votes or posts.

The scene was also explicit that there are three stones, which is believable by the game setup. Assuming this is the case, the town can only lynch two more townies and still be safe... the third "townie" lynch means a mafia win.

I'm kind of afraid to go after lurkers at this point. Even with the knowledge that SaberKitty is almost always a lurker, I would have happily led a bandwagon against her.

[Werebear]

Did you know that if you type a message in "quick reply" and pause to find all the posts by a user, it posts your message? SaberKitty has a mere 11 posts this whole game, which is what I wanted to say after "I would have happily led a bandwagon against her".

[Werebear]

Interesting, mathcam. I'll think about DP a little more myself... but who I'd really like to hear from is Dasquian, my target for the moment. Jan, Feb, posted, no problem. March, posted twice. the 8th and the 21st. That's being awfully quiet. Dasquian, any thoughts?

[Werebear]

That's a valid argument if there was only one stone left, massive... but there's three. You're absolutely right, I doubt SK protected you, but to use that as proof of townieship is way too far a reach.

[Werebear]

I went to sleep last night at 2am, and got up for the day at 5:55am. My post still looks understandable to me, but then I'm not exactly in a position to judge right now.

[Werebear]

All right, it appears we're at a standstill. Maybe it's just the weekend, but no one is sticking their neck out, so I might as well post and ponder.

Dasquian, just because someone is replaced doesn't mean they're scot-free. I hate to say this, but "because you're already there" is just as good a reason to grill someone as any other in this game. We're being judged purely on our reaction, like DP's when he got a few votes, and yours after you were voted. And I'm still worrying about DP, first "I'll read the thread", then "I'm a female frog, nothing more, nothing less" (what I call a *shrug*). And then there's Dasquian, who responded to someone voting him with "But... look at Nanook!". *sigh*

Unless there's someone seriously flying under the radar, or someone who is more suspicious, we're going to have to decide between DP and Dasquian.

[Werebear]

I actually would have been surprised if I didn't get a vote for that post, since I stuck my neck out when everyone else was being quiet. However, at this point you're annoying me, DP, for two reasons.

First, if you're going to quote me, please quote the whole thing, not just the half of it that makes me look bad.

Second, the reason I gave for you being suspicious was "your reaction to votes", which seems to me like a fairly good reason for being suspicious of someone.

Third, the reason I posted it as "a choice between DP and Dasquian" is because you two are on the hotseat. Of course there are other choices, including myself. But you two are the ones the town is looking at. As I said before, if someone can come up with something suspicious about someone else, (yes, including Nanook, your only suspicion of him is that he voted you) I will think about it.

[Werebear]

Wow. Talk about lurkers. Now that's somthing I'd consider going after...

[Werebear]

It seems the last few pages have been nothing but sniping. I'm going to follow instinct, and

Vote: bigben

. His sounds like a stall tactic, hoping people will forget his disappearance.

[Werebear]

That's what I get for not checking the vacation thread.

Unvote: bigbenwd

with apologies.

[Werebear]

Hey! Someone else posted!!! amazing. Where is everyone???

[Werebear]

Post 444, Kerplunk observed Darkblade both lurking, and bandwagon jumping.
Post 446, 447, 448, mathcam, DP, and massive agreed with Kerplunk, respectively.

[Werebear]

You tagline seems especially fitting....

[Werebear]

*twiddles Dasquian's ears* Anyone know what happened to Leonidas? Or anyone have an email for him?

[Werebear]

Maybe he meant WB, for Werebear?

One thing interesting I learned by hosting a copless game (mini77), the reason people call the third or fourth to vote on a bandwagon the "scum spot"... is because - at least in the game I ran - quite often it was actually scum in one of those two spots. I really should go back and see what % of the time scum were 3rd (or 4th) on a bandwagon. I was surprised that no one brought it up in my game, they would have nailed scum if they'd done it at least once. Does anyone think this is worth pursuing, or am I going to be pelted with rotten fruit for even suggesting it?

[Werebear]

Feh, I didn't realize everyone was waiting for me. I went back, here's how the scum votes were placed in Mountainous Mafia (77, also a copless mafia)

d1, town lynched, 6 to lynch, scum votes were 2 and 3
d2, town lynched, 5 to lynch, scum votes were 3 and 4
d3, scum lynched, 4 to lynch, no scum votes
d4, town lynched, 3 to lynch, scum vote was 1
d5, town lynched, 2 to lynch, scum vote was 2 (of course)

Of course, we don't have a day where we've lynched scum, but it might be interesting to go back and see who voted where in this game. Of course, I say this without remembering where I voted previously, or the player I replaced. *laugh* I do think the pattern of votes is interesting...

[Werebear]

OK. Just because this is intriguing me, I went through the four biggest bandwagons (one from each day). This is the results.

day 1 -

(no lynch, Untrod Tripod bandwagon)

Corsato, Macros, No Idea, massive, Wacky, mathcam, Tam
day 2 -

(Yggdrasil)

- Darkblade, Mathcam, DP, Flying Dutchman, Dasquian, Kerplunk, Corsato, Macros
day 3 -

(Flying Dutchman)

mathcam, Dragon Phoenix, bigbenwd, NanookTheWolf, Darkblade, Werebear, big_kahunia, Corsato
day 4 -

(darkblade)

Quiller, Kerplunk, Nanook, mathcam, Corsato, bigben

Here's the 2,3,4 vote count listing (

green text = dead town

)

DP - 2,3
nanook - 3,4
mathcam - 2,4
Macros - 2
kerplunk - 2
No Idea(Werebear) - 3
bigbenWD - 3

Massive - 4
FlyingDutchman - 4

Isn't it kind of strange that everyone who voted 2nd or 3rd is still alive? Well, here's the numbers, do with them what you will, I'm going to try and go back and look at these voters and see if any more patterns show.

[Werebear]

It will be interesting after the game, to see who on that list was scum, and who wasn't. You'll notice I didn't use them as my primary basis for voting either.

One thing I noticed reading back, DP's posts previously are REALLY smooth. But I can't tell the difference between smooth DP townie and smooth DP scum. I'm not really getting scum vibes from him, which makes me all the more nervous. *laugh*

[Werebear]

A major suspect? I agreed that using those lists as a sole reason to start a bandwagon was iffy... and you'll notice I didn't vote based on it.

However, I think I can

Vote: Dragon Phoenix

based on his attack of me for posting a few ideas, as well as his posts right along. And I know I'm going to be flamed for it too.

[Werebear]

That's an interesting approach, but it's one I wouldn't consider. When I'm scum, I always make sure to vote my cronies at some point in the game. If I were on the outside looking for scummates for Werebear, I'd look at people he voted once then ignored or unvoted after the tides turned. Even DP would agree with me on that one.

[Werebear]

I'm sorry, I should have said "There were no bandwagons on scum that led to lynching".

And that's an impressive table, but I'd rely on vote position before "who voted for whom". Based on that table, Kerplunk is mafia with Dasquian, me, DP, bigben, big_kahuna and Nanook.

[Werebear]

Any prominent lurkers nowadays?

[Werebear]

Bring enough insight for everyone. OK, I'll stick my neck out with a new plan.

How about everyone re-read the whole thread today or tomorrow... and everyone come up with a few people that they consider the scummiest. Maybe if we all glance over the thread with a fresh eye, something will turn up. And if everyone does it, there's more of a chance of the town not being led by the mafia. Maybe we can come up with an insight that matches up with one of our methods.

[Werebear]

I've been having troubles logging on... my work internet has been 95% dead, and I've been here 12 hour days, so all my games have been suffering, as I'm sure most of you have noticed.

One thing I'd like to note, though - once the subject of "who didn't vote for whom" comes up, there's no way to win. If Big_Kahuna and Corsato (for example) all of a sudden vote for each other, then they're obviously scum voting each other to take themselves off the list. If they don't vote each other, then they're obviously scum trying to keep themselves alive. *shakes head*

[Werebear]

Well, most of the time, if I don't post for a few days, usually at least one or two games notice and bandwagon me.

As to re-reading the thread, I can't help but think that DP has been playing us. He deftly avoided a bandwagon, and has been just on enough to poke and prod the town in his direction. I said he seemed suspicious, without even voting him, and then immediately I became public enemy #1 in his book. At this point, I'd be almost willing to bet he's mafia.

[Werebear]

This game is four months old. Happy four-month-birthday, game!

[Werebear]

I'd kind of like to know myself, mathcam... first, why the switch, and second, why the terseness. No rhyme or reason given. Curiouser and Curioser.

[Werebear]

This is getting more confusing by the minute. But I'm going to stick with my decision... I'm hoping DP is switching bandwagons to try and throw suspicion around. I'm getting more and more the idea that one of the two of them is scum.

[Werebear]

big_kahunia... please.

No one was saying anything, so I decided to follow up on a message I posted about scum being in the "scum spot" in bandwagons in my mini game.

I went through and reread two mafias (the mini, and this one). Since day 1 there was no lynch, I used the bandwagon that would have resulted in a lynch. The one big bandwagon of day 1. The one that everyone thought was a lynch, until a miscount was called after the victim posted "oh well, I'm dead, I'm a female frog", thereby securing his spot as a highly potential townie.

When I first posted that none of these bandwagons had lynched scum, it was brought to my attention that the bandwagon day 1 didn't result in a lynch at all. That is why I corrected my statement. And I'll tell you one more thing... if I'd known that all my hard work would result in me being harassed, I would have said screw it and not done any of it, and let the town drag on. I didn't post a vote because I was waiting for feedback.

Now... when I first came into this game, one of my top 3 suspects was mathcam. He allayed my suspicions for the most part, but at this point, he still looks suspicious (as I've said above). DP is still highly suspicious as well, I'm not backing down on him, and Corsato after these last few posts isn't looking to shiny either. They're now my top 3 as well, and all but Corsato I can back my suspicions up to my entry point. And after all that, I'm still going to stick with DP. I don't know why, he just rings scum bells for me

[Werebear]

Corsato... what the hell else do you think we're going on right now?! People are getting 'gut feelings' about me because I tried to think of a way to pinpoint people. It's definitely not too late to lynch based on that, that's all we have to go on here.

I still think DP and Mathcam are the top two, with Corsato running third. And as soon as I say that, I start worrying about 'the quieter ones'...

[Werebear]

Agreed, DP, until the end he was one that didn't register on the scum scale for me. We're at the same situation as yesterday, two more lynches of townies and we lose. I'm going to try to re-read at work today as well, and put my paranoia factor on hold.

[Werebear]

Bigben, if DP or mathcam were scum, I would expect them to vote fellow scum at one point or another in the game. It's what I'd do. I wouldn't say i *HAPPILY* lynch fellow scum, but I know it's smart in a game to be on a lynching bandwagon if it's scum. I would expect of all the players here, DP and mathcam know that as well.

[Werebear]

Oh, one more thing, I'm going to be gone Friday until Monday. To the bahamas. On a cruise. Poor me. I'll take pictures for all of you, though.

[Werebear]

Thanks, bigben. I can't wait until tomorrow.

Are we the only ones posting any more? It's a good thing we're not going after lurkers. [/sarcasm]

[Werebear]

Looks like I haven't missed much. I read hard, and didn't come up with anything, but skimmed, and big_kahunia's posting of a list looks like something someone would do to make an appearance without acutally doing anything. So I'm going to abandon prior arguments and

Vote: Big_Kahunia

until I decide to backpedal again like DP accuses me of. Of course, that's what everyone's doing, including DP...

[Werebear]

Everyone seems scummy except Nanook.

I'm kidding, of course, Dasquian makes a few good observations in the latter part of his post. I'm going to post my thoughts on a few of those...

About point "a" (regarding bigben and mathcam), I wouldn't think that mafia would be doing what they're doing. bigbenwd (if town) is going on yesterday's instincts regarding mathcam, and matcham's votes would be the more suspicious of the two in my book, being the "follower".

Regarding point "c" (Myself and DP), it seems like there has been a lot of friction between myself, DP, and mathcam. At this point, I'd bet money that either DP or mathcam is mafia, and that the other mafia is one of bigben, big_k, dasquian, Nanook. I don't think DP *and* mathcam are mafia together, but I can't shake the feeling that one is. We three have been too "at each other's throats" to not have one scum in the group.

At the moment, I'm keeping my vote to see what happens.

[Werebear]

er, amendment about point "a",

I wouldn't think that two mafia would be doing what they're doing.

I'm not saying I don't think they're scummy separately.

[Werebear]

Right now I'm positive, absolutely positive that either DP or mathcam is scum. And whoever it is, they're leaving myself and the other one alive to point fingers at today, on what might be the last day. I've toyed with the idea that they're both scum, and they're doing this just to drive me nuts, but from their posts, I really really don't think they're working together. I can't decide who looks innocent, which sucks, because I'm sure one is. Maybe I'll read back through and see what turns up. I can't today, work is out of control, but I will soon.

[Werebear]

I was just wondering if everyone's feeling how I'm feeling about where the scum is at this point. We've hinted at it, but I feel there is one mafia in each of the following sets:

[DP, Mathcam, Werebear]
[Bigben, Dasquian]

Why would I say this? Because there's a difference between not being buddies with your scummate, and attacking them outright. I think mathcam, DP, and I have been attacking each other enough that everyone would agree that there's probably not more than one mafia among us. Now, I don't think BigBen and Dasquian are mafia together either, though if they are, big fat kudos to them.

Now, the question remains... which set should we work on first? This is my toughest part, because both Bigben and Dasquian look about equally innocent to me, and DP and mathcam look equally scummy. But the whole reason behind this post is to see if I'm on the same wavelength as everyone else.

[Werebear]

OK, maybe if I reread thinking "Dasquian and BigBen", a lightbulb will go on.

[Werebear]

Mathcam - you're bringing No Idea's lurking at this point in time? No Idea was indeed lurking. That's why I replaced them. To associate me with No Idea's lurking is one of the silliest things I've read in a mafia. That was either desperation on your part, or really really not thinking.

[Werebear]

Well, it looks like *I* didn't read it well enough. Um, Mathcam, please, just ignore that. I didn't get much sleep last night.

[Werebear]

I thought we were waiting for bigbenwd to get replaced. I'm completely split between DP and mathcam. Of the posts on this page, though, I do have to agree with DP, mathcam's post looks manipulative. If it weren't for DP's posts, I'd say mathcam and DP were in it together.

I would agree to go with mathcam on the votes.

[Werebear]

I'm really goign to throw a monkey wrench into things. The more I read, the more I'm convinced that DP really is innocent. Or maybe I'm reading into things way too much. But either way, I'm convinced mathcam is mafia.

Vote: Mathcam

[Werebear]

I'd just like to say a few things.

1) Any frog that can't tell the difference between another frog and a ROCK is going to fall victim to Darwin anyways.
2) The garden was designed for contemplation, not the annoying croaking of frogs in heat.
3) Rocks are good feng shui. Frogs are not.
4) The owners of the garden say rocks good, frogs bad. The bad side is the mafia. So, in this game, there were actually three town, and 15 mafia. Yay, we townies won!
5) The frogs deserve to lose, because the rocks worked

DAY AND NIGHT

to get rid of the frogs, while the lazy-ass frogs only worked during the day.

[Werebear]

Leonidas isn't kidding when he says it's a pleasure to mod a copless game. DP, imagine a game with only one night choice (in this game, it started out 3, but still).

Yay, Corsato, Dasquian, we won!!!

[Werebear]

First of all, Corsato was not a deliberate sacrifice, but we realized he was probably going down. This last day, I tried to focus on us three, as I thought Dasquian would lose between him and BigBen.

Why didn't I follow the vote for you, DP?

First, I was afraid people would turn on me before Dasquian voted. Nothing is more suspicious than someone leaping on a bandwagon last day. "DP votes, Werebear votes, DP unvotes, discussion follows..."

Second, it was a win-win situation. What I was doing was giving the town two choices, neither of which were scum. I knew

you

would at least, to save your own hide, giving Dasquain plenty of time to add the third.

By the way, it was deliberate to leave you and mathcam alive until the end. Paranoia is fun, isn't it? The night we killed Kerplunk, I wavered so much between him and DP... I felt sure DP had my number. At the very least, I thought it would be nice for you two to actually survive to the end of a game as townies. Most of the time the mafia bump you guys off early.

By the way, did I thank you for lynching mathcam yet, DP?

[Werebear]

The crane had the potential to be useful. If the town had bandwagoned the crane, and the crane had come forth, the crane could have been a vigilante-type role, trying to kill whomever the town said. If they failed, of course, the next day's lynch was easy. (Reminds me of the water test for witches... ) Of course, whether the town could TRUST the crane is another story.