Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Ventriloquist]

Just catching up, I'll post shortly.

[Ventriloquist]

Is it not possible Tchill has a jester role of some sort? Not suggesting an insta win but I don't see how his claim could be helpful to town otherwise.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

[Ventriloquist]

I also have reasons that I can't share for thinking Tchills claim is a lot likelier than people think: that said I don't think the Tchill wagon is really gaining momentum as much as scum are all voting there to distract from caught scum Wilky.

Dave voted for Tchill, are you suggesting both miller claims are from scum, or was this just an overarching comment?

[Ventriloquist]

VOTE: Ramcius

agree, that's good wagon

I don't understand why a townie (moreover, anyone) would vote for themselves - seems like you saw a wagon forming and then panicked to try and loosen the noose around your neck. Also, why change your vote to Wilky seemingly just because Ouroboros called you out for it? Please explain your logic.

VOTE: Ramcius

[Ventriloquist]

Ventriloquist also extraordinarily scummy opener

Care to elaborate?

[Ventriloquist]

Ventriloquist also extraordinarily scummy opener
Ramcius pretty scummy

:shrug:

scumreading too many people, I guess I'll just hope that the outrageously scummy ones are in fact scum

ima check if what I'm seeing here is incompatible with Ramcius's town meta because if it isn't I might vote Ventrlioquist

Apologies hydra slip

Uh it's a bunch of things

the way you talk to ramcius
the way you go from Tchill's claim has no scum motivation -> jester as opposed to some sort of scum
the innate waffling, the way you feel like you're making a show of demanding input as opposed to any real throught process

Ramcius has not explained their reasoning, just randomly changed their votes because they were being pressured. MWNN has also been pretty fickle with their votes but I'd rather pressure Ramcius rather than let them ignore this and hope the wagon moves to someone else.

The Tchill point was just an observation that no one had raised up to now - is it not worthy of consideration?

As for legitimate thought process, I opened this thread to see 200 plus posts, I haven't had time to go in depth to the same level as yourself. My guess is that you're reading almost everyone as scum to try and stimulate discussion/get a reaction but I don't know how you usually play.

[Ventriloquist]

Why would you assume that I'm reading everyone as scum for reaction purposes as opposed to thinking that I'm scum or thinking that I'm town who is just going full blown harakiri mode on everyone.

Worthy of consideration, sure or not sure, but it's a strange thing to bring up and it says a lot about your thought processes.

I'd be willing to give you the benefit of the doubt on the scum read because scum will likely target the that stimulate discussion, no? I don't foresee many mafia-aligned having the guts to do this straight out of the gate.

[Ventriloquist]

I'm trying to check the game daily when I have time but taking more of a backseat because I don't have time to write throughout the day. I didn't see the game taking off at this speed and it's easy for a hydra account to criticise a lone account for lesser activity.

Ouroboros' attempt to create pressure with very minimal reasoning is not really giving me much to work with, although I can't say I'm surprised that you want to pull apart a new player's behaviour. It unnerves me because you say you are keeping cards close to your chest whilst simultaneously defending a player that has given us no reason to believe they are town at all, Tchill.

My only other scum reads so far were on Ramacius & MWNN, as both were very fickle and kept changing their votes without offering any good reason for doing so. This to me suggests an uneasyness when under pressure in the former case and a desire to please the supposedly protown mascot, Ouroboros in the latter.

I also don't see how different my activity is from players that also havent had time to add much substance yet, like Hebichan & REALMEN. I will add my reads to the discussion as and when I sense them, until that point any probing on my part will look forced.

[Ventriloquist]

@Ouroboros, you were suspicious of my thought process on Tchill (by suggesting he could be jester, i.e. misconstued to suggest we shouldn't vote for him ) yet you're not scumreading Tchill, a bit of an alignment disconnect don't you think?

[Ventriloquist]

At no point in this game have I said anything about your activity levels, though I do suppose you may be intentionally scum lurking. I mean you're lurking, that's not why you're scum.

Ouroboros' attempt to create pressure with very minimal reasoning is not really giving me much to work with, although I can't say I'm surprised that you want to pull apart a new player's behaviour. It unnerves me because you say you are keeping cards close to your chest whilst simultaneously defending a player that has given us no reason to believe they are town at all, Tchill.

You're correct I'm not giving you much to work with, but I assure you that's nothing to do with you. I have several strong reads for who your buddies are and want to see what they do before it becomes 100% clear that you're going to be the lynch today. As a result I am holding off on several of the stronger points that I want to make.

You're also playing the newb card and implying that I'm pushing you because you're new, which is blatantly untrue.

'defending a player who has given us no reason to believe they are town at all' is how scum describe their scumreads, not town.

My only other scum reads so far were on Ramacius & MWNN, as both were very fickle and kept changing their votes without offering any good reason for doing so. This to me suggests an uneasyness when under pressure in the former case and a desire to please the supposedly protown mascot, Ouroboros in the latter.

Interestingly, MWNN was willing to vote most of the people that I voted but he waffled then made an excuse for not voting you: what do you think that shows?

also don't see how different my activity is from players that also havent had time to add much substance yet, like Hebichan & REALMEN. I will add my reads to the discussion as and when I sense them, until that point any probing on my part will look forced.

It will 'look' forced or it will 'be' forced? You're again making this an activity issue when it clearly isn't.

@Ouroboros, you were suspicious of my thought process on Tchill (by suggesting he could be jester, i.e. misconstued to suggest we shouldn't vote for him ) yet you're not scumreading Tchill, a bit of an alignment disconnect don't you think?

Not in the slightest: 'this person is acting weird and scummy -> I think they are jester' is an extremely scummy thought process.
Typical newbplay is to assume anything weird or different is weird or different because it's scum, but you seem to already know that he's not weird or scummy because scum: why?
You are also trying to convince ME that I am scum and that is extremely scummy too: look at the phrasing of this.

If the thing that bothers you about me is other player activity, then why don't you address them? You say it's too soon to reveal your other suspects whilst also accusing MWNN in your next point.

I don't think it's unjustified to say you're pushing me because you're not familiar with me, by being alarmist your trying to see how I react to pressure.

You've stated that you're definitely going to be N1 kill, like you're trying to double bluff and insure yourself should you remain alive on day 2. This doesn't strike me as transparent behaviour - all these 'cards against your chest' remarks are not indictive of a good townie, regardless of your alignment and it's much easier for people to get on board with you as trustworthy when you aren't claiming to hide so much in the next breath.

You've pulled me up on my lack of definites, I can understand this at least. To this I can only say I don't like to accuse outright unless I have a strong lead, just because I have less conviction in my analysis it doesn't invalidate it. I'm also not trying to convince anyone that your scum, just that you've honed in on me and can't see anything but what you want to at this stage.

I will try and post some more tomorrow but I have a job interview to prepare for so don't count on it. Thursday evening I should be around more and will try to contribute to discussion actively rather than spending the whole time defending myself.

[Ventriloquist]

My only other scum reads so far were on Ramacius & MWNN, as both were very fickle and kept changing their votes without offering any good reason for doing so. This to me suggests an uneasyness when under pressure in the former case and a desire to please the supposedly protown mascot, Ouroboros in the latter.

Huh? What vote changing you talk about? Open my ISO and tell me what vote changing i've done? I voted Maria in RvS, i voted Wilky, then selfvoted as a joke, that's about it. I just feel like you try get easy lynch and don't like my wagon dissolving

You changed your vote to wilky because Ouroboros called you out for it, you then changed your vote to yourself. It's convenient that it's suddenly a joke that you self voted now, even though others picked up on how awkward it was.

[Ventriloquist]

At no point in this game have I said anything about your activity levels, though I do suppose you may be intentionally scum lurking. I mean you're lurking, that's not why you're scum.

Ouroboros' attempt to create pressure with very minimal reasoning is not really giving me much to work with, although I can't say I'm surprised that you want to pull apart a new player's behaviour. It unnerves me because you say you are keeping cards close to your chest whilst simultaneously defending a player that has given us no reason to believe they are town at all, Tchill.

You're correct I'm not giving you much to work with, but I assure you that's nothing to do with you. I have several strong reads for who your buddies are and want to see what they do before it becomes 100% clear that you're going to be the lynch today. As a result I am holding off on several of the stronger points that I want to make.

You're also playing the newb card and implying that I'm pushing you because you're new, which is blatantly untrue.

'defending a player who has given us no reason to believe they are town at all' is how scum describe their scumreads, not town.

My only other scum reads so far were on Ramacius & MWNN, as both were very fickle and kept changing their votes without offering any good reason for doing so. This to me suggests an uneasyness when under pressure in the former case and a desire to please the supposedly protown mascot, Ouroboros in the latter.

Interestingly, MWNN was willing to vote most of the people that I voted but he waffled then made an excuse for not voting you: what do you think that shows?

also don't see how different my activity is from players that also havent had time to add much substance yet, like Hebichan & REALMEN. I will add my reads to the discussion as and when I sense them, until that point any probing on my part will look forced.

It will 'look' forced or it will 'be' forced? You're again making this an activity issue when it clearly isn't.

@Ouroboros, you were suspicious of my thought process on Tchill (by suggesting he could be jester, i.e. misconstued to suggest we shouldn't vote for him ) yet you're not scumreading Tchill, a bit of an alignment disconnect don't you think?

Not in the slightest: 'this person is acting weird and scummy -> I think they are jester' is an extremely scummy thought process.
Typical newbplay is to assume anything weird or different is weird or different because it's scum, but you seem to already know that he's not weird or scummy because scum: why?
You are also trying to convince ME that I am scum and that is extremely scummy too: look at the phrasing of this.

If the thing that bothers you about me is other player activity, then why don't you address them? You say it's too soon to reveal your other suspects whilst also accusing MWNN in your next point.

I don't think it's unjustified to say you're pushing me because you're not familiar with me, by being alarmist your trying to see how I react to pressure.

You've stated that you're definitely going to be N1 kill, like you're trying to double bluff and insure yourself should you remain alive on day 2. This doesn't strike me as transparent behaviour - all these 'cards against your chest' remarks are not indictive of a good townie, regardless of your alignment and it's much easier for people to get on board with you as trustworthy when you aren't claiming to hide so much in the next breath.

You've pulled me up on my lack of definites, I can understand this at least. To this I can only say I don't like to accuse outright unless I have a strong lead, just because I have less conviction in my analysis it doesn't invalidate it. I'm also not trying to convince anyone that your scum, just that you've honed in on me and can't see anything but what you want to at this stage.

I will try and post some more tomorrow but I have a job interview to prepare for so don't count on it. Thursday evening I should be around more and will try to contribute to discussion actively rather than spending the whole time defending myself.

1) This is a scum defense in general and I say that on a comprehensive view.
2) What do you mean double bluff and insure myself? I am going to be dead N1. That's just facts. No reason Kaede needed to IC herself but when she did that I was guaranteed dead.
3) I called you out very little on your lack of definites. I could call you up for literally never scumhunting for sure but that's barely even a part of my post.



Also just in general: has anyone noticed that so, so many people have expressed scumreads on Ventriloquist then failed to follow up on them with a vote?

Ok forgive me if I'm being dense but how does the Kaede reveal guarantee your dead?

By calling me up on lack of definites im referring to the way I word things. I'd rather make an observation and suggest possibilities rather than say someone is guaranteed scum, I don't think being alarmist helps.

Very few people had scum reads on me until you started to put me on a pedestal. Most of the scumreads you mention are a result of me not knowing how to react to your posts because, according to your own assessment it is the people around me that are giving me away rather than myself. And I don't even know who is people are.

[Ventriloquist]

Okay so I'm locking in here

Ventriloquist is lockscum
Impossibear is lockscum
MWNN is probably scum

VOTE: Ventriloquist

You're literally like a broken record - how rudimentary is this logic? Impossibear doesn't agree with you so Impossibear must be scum? In what world would a mafia aligned player defend another mafia aligned player so damn hard, knowing that they would both go down together?

MWNN has not given substantial reasons for any of his votes, he has simply changed it several times and given some vague reasoning which never really materialises - once more he always changes his vote back to whatever Ouroboros is going with, despite voting elsewhere briefly (to create the illusion of actually having his own voice) - Given the way in which MWNN and REALMEN instantly rallied around you, it wouldn't surprise me if you're all scum together. Ouroboros 'probably' reading MWNN makes perfect sense here, making it seem like MWNN is on his radar as a bad guy (thus distancing himself) yet never putting him at the top, therefore not having to consider lynching him.

Taking the saying of the best defense is a good offense to a whole new level.

[Ventriloquist]

Oh, so it's gonna be one of those games

AKA, literally every game I'm in

You're reading me as scum but you think this whole don't lynch me because I always get lynched card isn't dubious?

[Ventriloquist]

ETL you have displayed absolutely zero respect for my reads earlier, my scumread on Ventriloquist or my own ability to look into the wagon.
If you don't understand why I am scumreading the slot then you certainly shouldn't be saying shit about me being oblivious to the development of the wagon.
I echo the same general ideas that Alchemist had about the way they talk to me being extremely scum leaning but I have very specific ideas here as opposed to Alchemist's vague idea.

Also in defense of Ventriloquist, you've cited MWNN and RMOJ as your reasons for opposing the wagon development.
This doesn't pan out well because although they are voting, neither of their votes are particularly enthusiastic in a way that signifies that they couldn't be scum bussing.

RealMenOnlyJungle has several times after he joined the wagon tried to be like HEY LETS WAGON VERYLAZY INSTEAD.
MWNN took a lot of prompting and comments about his likeliness of being aligned with Ventriloquist before he decided to vote there and hasn't specifically pushed it himself.

Your engagement with me has also been fundamentally monodirectional: rather than trying to understand why my read is what it is you've gotten mad at me for not sharing your reads and been like HEY YOU SHOULD BE READING THIS INSTEAD. I'm not going to claim to be perfect town. But when you make a list of people who can read you and then say that you're a better scum player it makes me extremely skeptical of your ability to fairly judge how good you are: there is literally no one on this site who can claim that they can read me among several people who have told me they've read every single game I've played, and I have one of the largest bodies of work of anyone on this site.

I'm not townreading lazy worth shit: it's completely null. I simply think that the wagon on them is highly liable to be a scum counterwagon.

When bad town starts running the game, it becomes clear that we have already lost.

Don't fail to make any mental effort to appreciate why I'm scumreading a slot then call me bad town for faiing to scumread it, assuming you're town.

Never, ever, ever fail to lynch this slot tomorrow if (when) Ventriloquist flips scum. Don't cop them, don't investigate them, don't discuss with them, just quicklynch them.

It isn't fair to say ETL showed no respect for your reads earlier - fact of the matter is they went through all the posts on page 16 and ultimately decided they didn't agree with your reads - Impossibear still took the time to hear you out at least. Meanwhile, you've ignored the vast majority of Impossibear's posts - posts which actually analyse a huge quantity of players posts. Nice try discrediting the reads since she disagreed with you though, I guess you like to manipulate facts.

MWNN was never being scumread by anyone else as my teammate, only you - when in actuality the close connection you've had with each other - MWNN voting in a similar way to you, and you keeping MWNN at just enough arm's distance to avoid suspicion, actually reads as you two working together from where I'm reading. MWNN did not want to vote for me but eventually came around to the idea...almost as if it was inevitable hey - and his reasoning was because 'I'm not a leader' wow, just wow.

You can already see Ouroboros rubbing their hands with this quote - 'When bad town starts running the game, it becomes clear that we have already lost'

[Ventriloquist]

I backed off on Ventriloquist because I regretted actually showing that scumread because I wanted to see how he'd develop without me doing anything.

I later decided I was sure enough that he was scum and I just went for it.

My initial posts had some vague reads, sure (an idea about Tchill, genuinely my first week on this forum - I assumed it was credible to consider the jester role) and what I said about Wilky didn't bring anything new to the table I'll admit - but given that I hadn't said anything up to that point and the thread was already blowing up I obviously had to show my face, and in the absence of having any significant reads I just said some general observations because I thought it was more productive than, hey, I don't know, jumping onto a voting bandwagon with no reasoning. On top of that, I did vote for Ramcius and a gave strong reasoning for doing so.

Meanwhile you chose to take advantage of my lack of experience and turn it into a 'scumread' - then popped some joke, palming it off as a 'meme' when it didn't go your way. As soon as the pressure came off and I'd left the forum you got back onto my wagon, knowing I wasn't around to defend myself.

[Ventriloquist]

Yeah I could get on board with a Vent wagon too

Is it not possible Tchill has a jester role of some sort? Not suggesting an insta win but I don't see how his claim could be helpful to town otherwise.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

Very suspicious post

Almost forgot, might as well elaborate on why I find this post very suspicious, because why not

He uses some rather

absurd

leaps in logic in two separate cases to paint a narrative picture about these two players, deliberately ignoring Occam's Razor in favor of stirring up WIFOM.

What is more likely? That TChill is running a Jester gambit? Or that TChill is fakeclaiming? TChill's was by far the least believable claim so far, and the most awkward (considering Kaede is mod-confirmed). By bringing up some a longshot possiblity, Vent is indirectly mounting a soft defense of TChill.

Simultaneously, he attempts to cast suspicion on Wilky with a similarly absurd leap. What's more likely? That Wilky is claiming Miller truthfully in a game run by a mod who apparently has a habit of these kinds of setup quirks? Or that Wilky is deliberately playing off mod meta to mount a roundabout fakeclaim gambit, with a claim that is by its nature instantly considered suspect by default?

I don't like that whatsoever. And after we get the VC I might consider switching my vote right now.

Maybe fakeclaiming is more likely, but that doesn't mean I wasn't trying to help. Either way, I acknowledged that his claim was not believable WHICH IS WHY I suggested joker in the first place, why else make yourself so lynchable? But if you were game for a Tchill lynch and the jester possibility really is so absurd, then why aren't you voting for them instead?

I never made a strong claim against Wilky, but it was odd how he said it wouldn't be far-fetched to have another game with 2 millers when this moderator has done it before. It's like he'd done his research, found the link then knew it was credible because it isn't the first time. I wasn't saying this was the case but it wasn't inaccurate to discuss.

[Ventriloquist]

so you vote town because you're not 'man' enough to cope with resistance on lynching scum?

fuck off. jingle was clearly wrong about you. and i'm the one who said you had no skill. i see i was right. go away.

fuck off both of you. idiots.

towns these days are garbage. i don't know why i bother with discussion.

wait didn't someone just say this is what you do as scum

And last but not least, play nice people - we are all here to have fun, are we not?

I've had my say so, up to you guys now.

Also, VOTE: MWNN - my nomination, if Ouroboros truly does think he is 'probably' scum then he can prove it.

[Ventriloquist]

Also final and pretty damning point against Ventriloquist: why did he wait so long and post all of his major points at once?
Answer: because he posted simplified versions in scum thread and waited for his teammates to be able to review them and improve them.

'Simplified versions' - pfft, I can write for myself, thanks. You've done me a favour lynching me anyway, playing a longer game with you would be insufferable.

[Ventriloquist]

Also final and pretty damning point against Ventriloquist: why did he wait so long and post all of his major points at once?
Answer: because he posted simplified versions in scum thread and waited for his teammates to be able to review them and improve them.

Going by timestamps, this is pretty believable. All those posts were made between 3:23 to 3:25 EST.

After reading through 11 pages, there were lots of quotes I wanted to reply to. The easiest way of doing this for me was to open the post in a new tab for each - add a response to each - then when I had written everything I wanted I posted them all together in unison from different tabs. Posting them all just as I see them would be a nightmare for me, as people would be replying to my posts before I'd even gotten up to date with the thread and I wouldn't be able to reply to them fast enough. When a lynch wagon is mounted on me and every other post has my name in it, I think it's justifiable that I would want to prepare a response to them all.

[Ventriloquist]

I mean when I naturally quote things as I read, it makes sense to have a time difference as I'm reading, the posts do seem pre-planned.

I mean I honestly don't see how opening several tabs to reply to each one properly is so scummy. Last time I tried to multiquote it didn't work out as I wanted it to. Lack of knowledge of forum tools if you know of a better way do tell (for future reference).