Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Yes, I don't think the miller claim conversation is going to get anywhere.In post 124, Alchemist21 wrote:VOTE: Ankamius
I know the "do little until later" is kind of your thing, but I would think by now you'd have at least commented on something worthwhile. So got any thoughts to share?
But really, I'm waiting on something specific before I start analyzing things. I want to test something.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Nope, it's unrelated to my votes.In post 133, Alchemist21 wrote:
Was the Wilky vote part of what you're testing?In post 127, Ankamius wrote:
Yes, I don't think the miller claim conversation is going to get anywhere.In post 124, Alchemist21 wrote:VOTE: Ankamius
I know the "do little until later" is kind of your thing, but I would think by now you'd have at least commented on something worthwhile. So got any thoughts to share?
But really, I'm waiting on something specific before I start analyzing things. I want to test something.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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MariaR + Ouroboros I have a hard time seeing as scum this game.
The {Wraith, Nero Cain, hebichan, Impossibear} set are close enough together in read strength that they might as well be right on top of each other.
Dunnstral + davesaz are slots that I either can't really read or have conflicting thoughts on, but I see as more likely town than not.
REALMEN + Ventriloquist are the null line.
verylazy + Wilky are slots I've had stronger scumreads on, but they've improved over time.
Everything below those two slots I can easily see being scum this game.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Also, ETL, just as a quick note because this is directly relevant to me: how do you generally get your reads? I remember you being a fairly strong player but I want to get an idea as to why our general thoughts have been polar opposites this game.
I still lean townish on the overall analysis, but I want to get this sorted out sooner rather than later since it would do a lot to prevent me from gaining paranoia on your slot later in the game.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Why do I need to explain them?In post 451, Alchemist21 wrote:In post 418, Ankamius wrote:Kaede Akamatsu
MariaR
Ouroboros
Wraith
Nero Cain
hebichan
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle)
Dunnstral
davesaz
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
Ventriloquist
verylazy
Wilky
Alchemist21
Tchill12
Ramcius
ManWithNoName
UNVOTE: Ventriloquist
VOTE: ManWithNoName
This is pretty underwhelming. You could have explained at least some of these reads. I wasn't expecting too much but for all I can tell this could be a list that was just RNG'd.In post 419, Ankamius wrote:MariaR + Ouroboros I have a hard time seeing as scum this game.
The {Wraith, Nero Cain, hebichan, Impossibear} set are close enough together in read strength that they might as well be right on top of each other.
Dunnstral + davesaz are slots that I either can't really read or have conflicting thoughts on, but I see as more likely town than not.
REALMEN + Ventriloquist are the null line.
verylazy + Wilky are slots I've had stronger scumreads on, but they've improved over time.
Everything below those two slots I can easily see being scum this game.
VOTE: Ankamius-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Hebi, who specifically are you referring to here?In post 430, hebichan wrote:I'm not scum reading manwithnoname that hard right now, he seems to be scumhunting, which I don't think many scum players try to play up this early day one.
I dunno, I feel vent more at the moment, but you could case him if you like. I could probably be swayed.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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here you goIn post 458, Alchemist21 wrote:@AnkI remember you having it in your sig where someone said you're the only person they knew who could do nothing all game then solve it out of nowhere, but I didn't think it was so literal.
At the very least I want an explanation for why you're voting who you're voting.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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I'm actually not willing to go into every single read I have here right now, but I'm open to discussing specific ones if you have a preference.In post 503, Impossibear wrote:Happy Scumday Ank!While I appreciate the long-overdue attempt at content, there wasn't actually much "content" there, tbh. I'm gonna need more explanation on those reads, not just how strong they are.
Reference PostIn post 503, Impossibear wrote:
I've actually posted about this in mafia discussion, but basically I prefer to townhunt first as scumreads take much longer for me to develop. The other reason is because being able to work together with your town reads makes for a very strong town that is tough to breakup outside of straight killing the members of the townblock, and can spell doom for the scumteam.In post 420, Ankamius wrote:Also, ETL, just as a quick note because this is directly relevant to me: how do you generally get your reads? I remember you being a fairly strong player but I want to get an idea as to why our general thoughts have been polar opposites this game.
Which thoughts in particular are we "polar opposites" on? Let's talk about them.
Early Alchemist Posts: A big source of my scumread on Alchemist came from these posts, actually. I'm not liking the way he came out onto the miller point so fast after the game started; I especially do not like his answer to Ghost regarding davesaz' play since I don't remember him ever being particularly active or a big player in the game he's in; him specifically focusing on him not being scum pings in light of that. I really didn't like #21 either.
Early Kaede+MariaR Interactions: Opposite reaction here too; this is where my MariaR townread started, specifically #35; something about the early miller talks feels way off and I liked the attempt to push discussion away from that.
Alchemist #63: This is a big one; Alchemist hit a huge scumvibe with this post, although primarily combined with his #55 (which I independently found scummy). Alchemist hasn't felt genuine in these posts at all, I've been getting posturing vibes off these posts if anything.
Ouroboros #71: This is the beginning of the Ouroboros townread for me; this happens alotthroughout the game so far, but there's been a lot of instances where I have a reaction to a specific post and see an RC post detailing that exact same thought 1/3 down the page. In this particular instance, RC misspoke; he was referring to the multitude of people having him claim first after the second miller claim, and the post RC is referring to looks like a huge backpedal, like he's realizing he just fucked up.
What the shit is this...: This is a playstyle quirk I use; it has a very specific purpose that pays off very well when I get the reaction I want from it. It mostly didn't this game, sadly. There's another subpoint in here that achieves the same thing, but I don't want to reveal exactly what it is because then it won't work anymore.
Post 101 VC: Up to this point, of the four people on the wagon that aren't me, one is conftown and the other two are the people I have strong townreads on. As an aside, I wasn't scumreading Wilky at that time.
Post 163: I 100% agreed with RC here. The votes weren't necessarily there, but MWWN's trajectory onto the wagon, Ramcius' one-liner shading the claim, and davesaz suddenly hopping on all within a very short window raised some eyebrows with me too.
Overall, I think the issue you're having with RC is the same one I'm having with you; I think the analysis looks townish because I don't really see any scum motivation from it... but I don't understand the points you're making themselves.
Post 171: I agree with this assessment, all I can really add is that I think all of Ramcius' posts around this spot look really bad.
MariaR 259: I agree here too, but I actually think it's just her falling into the Nero-is-wrong-therefore-scum trap. I can't follow like 80% of what Nero posts in every game we play and I've probably fallen into that same trap before. I've mostly learned to read him through other ways but I'm suspecting MariaR doesn't have a whole lot of experience with him.
Post 266: I think this entire exchange between the two has been pretty pointless. I don't see why Nero's posting there is any more sensical than MariaR's, honestly.
Post 301: One of the instances where I disagreed with RC; I've generally agreed with his scumreads and not his townreads this game.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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My playstyle is really difficult to explain, but I'll try my best.In post 512, Impossibear wrote:And how exactly do you play the game?? You asked me about my process, I think it's only fair you discuss yours.
If I can generally grasp what scum is trying to do pretty easily, then I try to pair people's actions against that and see who most consistently matches it.
If I am seeing scum influence throughout the game but can't piece it together very well, then I do the same, but it's a lot more jagged and my reads usually shift around a lot.
If I can't tell what scum are doing at all (or there's so much noise that it's completely hidden), then I'm probably either deathtunneling random slots or lurking for weeks on end.
I don't want to go into too much more detail; I have a lot of tricks I use to help brute force people to give me more of the above, but they're the types of things that become a lot more difficult to use once they're directly known.
Generally though, I withhold information because it's a lot easier to fit actions into a narrative if you know what the narrative is. I've found that I tend to get the lynches I want much more often when I dance around the perimeter of my reads and prod at it; I don't usually make cases or go into scumreads too often outside of gut or similar because generally that's all I have; anything more than that just gives them more possibilities to find an out.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Lemme put all of Alchemist's early posts here before I go into it:In post 735, Impossibear wrote:Ok, while I go through the rest of these, here's the first bit:
Ok, so, my impression of Alchemist's first vote was RVS-ish. He'll have to confirm that or not. The fact that he moved it to Ouroboros pretty quickly tells me he wasn't that committed to it in the first place, especially after thinking about it for a bit, which it looks like given the explanation in 9.In post 667, Ankamius wrote: Early Alchemist Posts: A big source of my scumread on Alchemist came from these posts, actually. I'm not liking the way he came out onto the miller point so fast after the game started; I especially do not like his answer to Ghost regarding davesaz' play since I don't remember him ever being particularly active or a big player in the game he's in; him specifically focusing on him not being scum pings in light of that. I really didn't like #21 either.
Regarding the bit about Dave being active or not, I'm confused because Alchemist's response says that Davedoesn'tpost as much. Did I miss something there?
What didn't you like about 21?
Spoiler:
A lot of my issue with these posts is that a lot of what he posts doesn't look really necessary.
My issue with Alchemist's posts here is that I don't understand why he would need to post what he has.
I didn't actually catch onto this until I read #18, but I found it really weird that he is putting in the extra effort to explain why he doesn't believe the miller claim is scum.
In #9, he makes a show out of explaining that dave is unlikely to make this kind of play as scum; the extent he goes to is unnecessary for how early it is.
#14 reinforces that; he did get blowback from Ouroboros about that exact same reason, but otherwise he is going to an unusual level of detail in explaining this read when it hasn't come up in any way by any other slot so far.
#18, again, reinforces that. Ghost asked if dave is a low-key player as both town and scum, and alchemist answers that question... right before once again justifying the reason he doesn't think davesaz would do it as scum.
It's a total dissonance from #21, where he's already compromising on having to remove the slot after literallyoneperson brought up the idea.
It's most likely not super indicative unless one of them flips scum, but the way alchemist goes about this looks really posturey. #21 is independently scummy outside of it, though.-
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I know you didn't specifically ask for my opinion on it, but I scumread #55 mainly because of the tone shift compared to the davesaz claim. It read like he was completely thrown off by this second miller claim, which is reinforced by #63 where it feels like he's trying to look at it from square one again. It looks like he was prepared for a miller claim by davesaz, but wasn't expecting two.In post 750, Impossibear wrote:
Jingle is actually in agreement with you on that, and since my first post on the interaction, I have her as pretty null. I like your point about trying to push discussion elsewhere. I do think if both millers are town, scum would benefit greatly from using it to justify votes/lynch options.In post 667, Ankamius wrote: Early Kaede+MariaR Interactions: Opposite reaction here too; this is where my MariaR townread started, specifically #35; something about the early miller talks feels way off and I liked the attempt to push discussion away from that.
I think 55 is pretty null... Talk to me about what pinged you on 63. Is it just the speculation re: scum miller or is there something else?Ank wrote:Alchemist #63: This is a big one; Alchemist hit a huge scumvibe with this post, although primarily combined with his #55 (which I independently found scummy). Alchemist hasn't felt genuine in these posts at all, I've been getting posturing vibes off these posts if anything.
ETL-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Can you substantiate this for me?In post 761, Ouroboros wrote:I understand what you're seeing here and I want to gutread Alchemist scum but meta very strongly indicates that this is his townplay.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Oh while you're here and I'm reminded;In post 833, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:I dunno, still gut feel is that there's something weird in your read trajectories...
If i could with certainty say that means you're scum I'd have voted you by now.
If you are who I think you are, it's strange you haven't interacted with me at all (unless the anonymity is the reason why). Are you willing to discuss reads at all?-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Huh. I reached this point in the game again and I don't have that feeling anymore.In post 652, Ankamius wrote:Hey Ghost, while you're here:
I'm hard-townreading your slot due to RC, but why do the posts inyourhalf of the hydra feel so weird to me? Is there something about your combined play that I'm missing or am I sensing playstyle clashes?
That's probably an indication that my overall read has shifted and I need to flesh out where that places everyone again.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Serious question: Do you have prior experience playing with me?
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Ankamius Survivor
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Serious question: Why me specifically?In post 688, Alchemist21 wrote:
For me, I've seen scum trying to directly engage with the person scumreading them and try to discredit the validity of the read or try to reason their way out of it. My memory might be a bit hazy example that came to my mind reading Vent's posts was SerraPaladin's posts in the 2016 Team Trap Mafia where he said the player who was scumreading them was doing it for reasons other than the content of their posts. I know Vent's not making that same exact argument but the nature of their defense feels like it comes from that same kind of mindset.In post 512, Impossibear wrote:Ok, maybe. I could see this line of reasoning. I personally didn't get that when I read his ISO. I'll re-review I guess. I'm trying to figure out why people are so gung ho about this wagon. Like, is it something you'd need to look really deeply to find? Because.. nothing stood out to me the way it apparently is for you and Ouro.
Wrt to my Ank vote, I've seen more content from them as both alignments tbh. It's been a while since I've played with them iirc, but how they're approaching this game doesn't sit right with me and the lack of any explanations makes it harder to actually solidify the read. I'll admit it's a read subject to change but if I have to strongarm some content from them I will.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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I've been very cold towards your demands because of not only my initial read on you, but parts of your engagement on me reads manipulative.In post 695, Alchemist21 wrote:See this is the kind of post I've been wanting. It also looks like you only refused my demands for content because you're scumreading me since you're willing to give them to Impossibear in your Town reads. Anyway, more like these please.
VOTE: Ventriloquist
This post in particular is very difficult to quantify in any sense, regardless of context from your other posts or not. It factors into my other question from you, but why did you completely drop this after spending so much of your time and effort trying to brute force info out of me?-
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Kaede AkamatsuIn post 418, Ankamius wrote:Kaede Akamatsu
MariaR
Ouroboros
Wraith
Nero Cain
hebichan
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle)
Dunnstral
davesaz
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
Ventriloquist
verylazy
Wilky
Alchemist21
Tchill12
Ramcius
ManWithNoName
MariaR
Nero Cain
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle)
Ouroboros
hebichan
Ramcius
Wilky
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
verylazy
Wraith
Dunnstral
davesaz
Alchemist21
ManWithNoName
Ventriloquist
Tchill12
I think this is roughly where I'm at now; I'd kind of like to hammer more of these into place since this game has gotten really hard to read over the past ten or so pages.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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I think day 1 scumlynches are a net negative for town unless they're way ahead of where they're supposed to be relative to the amount of information they have.
This is not that type of situation at all because this Vent-push has drowned out 80% of the game. Even if Vent does flip scum, where does that get us, exactly? Limited information based on associations towards that slot and very little else directly, and less indirect information because this push was brute forced through.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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I misread the question, but it still applies. One very loud voice and a lot of quiet or moderate voices is a very weak town, yes.In post 922, Ramcius wrote:
So, you think this town is easy to abuse for scum?In post 921, Ankamius wrote:Do I need to show you examples of when I abused an early scumflip to my advantage as scum?
Trust me, that's not even close to a weird statement for me to make.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Oh, really.In post 927, Ramcius wrote:
What you suggesting then? Flip someone else? Who have enough associations and is scummy enough for it?In post 923, Ankamius wrote:I think day 1 scumlynches are a net negative for town unless they're way ahead of where they're supposed to be relative to the amount of information they have.
This is not that type of situation at all because this Vent-push has drowned out 80% of the game. Even if Vent does flip scum, where does that get us, exactly? Limited information based on associations towards that slot and very little else directly, and less indirect information because this push was brute forced through.
I see you complaining how bad Vent scumflip would be, but i don't see you doing something substantial to change it, do you really need RC permission to push someone else?
Also, little known fact, but you there are other methods to find scums than just rely on postflip associations
In post 834, Ankamius wrote:
Oh while you're here and I'm reminded;In post 833, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:I dunno, still gut feel is that there's something weird in your read trajectories...
If i could with certainty say that means you're scum I'd have voted you by now.
If you are who I think you are, it's strange you haven't interacted with me at all (unless the anonymity is the reason why). Are you willing to discuss reads at all?In post 835, Ankamius wrote:
Huh. I reached this point in the game again and I don't have that feeling anymore.In post 652, Ankamius wrote:Hey Ghost, while you're here:
I'm hard-townreading your slot due to RC, but why do the posts inyourhalf of the hydra feel so weird to me? Is there something about your combined play that I'm missing or am I sensing playstyle clashes?
That's probably an indication that my overall read has shifted and I need to flesh out where that places everyone again.In post 838, Ankamius wrote:
Serious question: Why me specifically?In post 688, Alchemist21 wrote:
For me, I've seen scum trying to directly engage with the person scumreading them and try to discredit the validity of the read or try to reason their way out of it. My memory might be a bit hazy example that came to my mind reading Vent's posts was SerraPaladin's posts in the 2016 Team Trap Mafia where he said the player who was scumreading them was doing it for reasons other than the content of their posts. I know Vent's not making that same exact argument but the nature of their defense feels like it comes from that same kind of mindset.In post 512, Impossibear wrote:Ok, maybe. I could see this line of reasoning. I personally didn't get that when I read his ISO. I'll re-review I guess. I'm trying to figure out why people are so gung ho about this wagon. Like, is it something you'd need to look really deeply to find? Because.. nothing stood out to me the way it apparently is for you and Ouro.
Wrt to my Ank vote, I've seen more content from them as both alignments tbh. It's been a while since I've played with them iirc, but how they're approaching this game doesn't sit right with me and the lack of any explanations makes it harder to actually solidify the read. I'll admit it's a read subject to change but if I have to strongarm some content from them I will.
Yes, I've done nothing substantial to change itIn post 841, Ankamius wrote:
Kaede AkamatsuIn post 418, Ankamius wrote:Kaede Akamatsu
MariaR
Ouroboros
Wraith
Nero Cain
hebichan
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle)
Dunnstral
davesaz
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
Ventriloquist
verylazy
Wilky
Alchemist21
Tchill12
Ramcius
ManWithNoName
MariaR
Nero Cain
Impossibear (EspeciallyTheLies + Jingle)
Ouroboros
hebichan
Ramcius
Wilky
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE
verylazy
Wraith
Dunnstral
davesaz
Alchemist21
ManWithNoName
Ventriloquist
Tchill12
I think this is roughly where I'm at now; I'd kind of like to hammer more of these into place since this game has gotten really hard to read over the past ten or so pages.because I don't have strong enough reads, which I've beentryingto change. That's been the entire point of my play up to this point and I'm getting really annoyed that I'm having to sift through 2-3 pages of just the same Vent stuff every time I want to catch up and try to reach my own conclusions. Most of it is useless to me and despite the fact that I independently think Ventriloquist is scum, his flip either way is not going to shift anything or give me a better idea of what we're working with.
I've already hit the point where I almost just want to vote Ventriloquist now just so we can get to a day phase where this push isn't a distraction anymore.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ok
Yeah I'm prod dodging the rest of the day
Have fun-
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Ankamius Survivor
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That really worked out pretty well, didn't it.In post 947, wilky wrote:I mean, despite the fact i've been scumreading ram most of the day I also agree with what he has said on the situation. That being that ank is trying to dispel a wagon on vent whilst also trying to cover tracks when his buddy flips scum.
UNVOTE: ManWithNoName
VOTE: Ventriloquist-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Also ETL basically said the same thing I did in different words.In post 950, Impossibear wrote:worst wagon ever. what analysis can even be done with no counterwagon? completely scum motivated. actually starting to think ouroboros might be scum the way this day went down.
really really.. just gross.
ETL
This wagon is never going to help town regardless of flip.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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I didn't immediately assume scum because I'm already strongly town reading your slot and I am well aware that I scumread certain playstyles regardless of alignment.In post 1013, Ouroboros wrote:
curious why you don't immediately assume that's because she's scum and go off on me for that.In post 1011, Ankamius wrote:RC, any idea why Ghost felt weird to me for a while?
I've never actually played with her before so I don't know her style myself.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.