It means anything is possible but the basis of decisions should be probabilities, not possibilities.In post 3370, Reality Check wrote:what does this even meanIn post 3010, Shoshin wrote:Anything is possible. It's also irrelevant to making good decisions.In post 3005, Reality Check wrote:Btw I think Shoshin could be gambiting specifically because it's entirely possible she's a full doctor, we don't actually have any proof that she is a bodyguard.
Labyrinth Mafia (Endgame)
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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I'm going to make a final case on Random and then I'm done. You guys do whatever you want after that, I'm too frustrated with what people are saying at this point to keep playing this.
The case on Creature:
On D1, he defends Creature while refusing to townread Creature (see e.g. D2 where he says he never townread Creature). When pressure builds on both Creature and Renais, he votes Renais over Creature. When Nancy expresses paranoia about TPF at end of D1, as the lynch appears to be heading towards Creature, Random switches his vote to TPF, preventing a lynch on Creature and all but assuring a no lynch. In short, Random effectively stopped any possibility of lynching Creature on D1. This is about as strong of an associative connection to Creature as you could have on D1.
On D2, when the worst questioned Random's behavior re: Creature, Random says he didn't vote Creature because Creature was "playing to his scum meta." This is scummy because that's the sort of observation that leads townies to scumread a player, not to defend them. Random's logic - that he didn't vote for Creature because scum Creature wouldn't play to his scum meta - is convoluted beyond belief and suggests that Random's behavior re: Creature has nothing to do with a genuine read on Creature and instead is about pushing a scum agenda (i.e. defending a partner, and/or securing a no lynch).
On D2, Random votes Nico at a point where it's already pretty clear that Nico's probably town, and then there's a sequence of unnatural hostility/aggression towards Nico, based entirely on Nico's playstyle rather than anything alignment indicative. The hostility is fake.
After D2, he's been actively lurking. He's not making any effort to move things in a pro-town direction.
His role isn't town or scum by itself, but there's evidence that he lied about how he used the role, which is scummy.
The nightkills pointed to Random. Nico voted Random on D2 and thought Random was scummier than Creature. Shepard expressed a strong scumread on Random on D2 in my Masquerade PM with him, and he listed Random as the scummiest player in the game after Angel on D3 (Angel flipped town, meaning his next scumread was Random). According to Shepard in our PM, Random is playing to his scum meta.
Finally, in terms of plausible teams, Random could be scum with any of the other players who could be scum here. Lynching him has been very difficult. Chick says he's scummy but not her top choice for lynch. Wisdom says he's scummy but wants to lynch Chick and/or me over Random. Wheme says he's scummy but wants to vote someone else. Reality votes him but then votes off him quickly. the worst suggested he was scummy on D2 when he pressured Random about the no lynch, but then magically starts townreading him later in the game, suggesting a plausible connection.
In short, everyone has distanced themselves from Random at some point in the game yet nobody actually wants to see him lynched. So, yeah, plausible connection with anyone else who could be scum in this game.-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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I voted for Angel at the end because the lynch was inevitable and I wanted to move on. I'm not even that upset about Angel's lynching, what actually upset me is the fact that you keep saying it was a good lynch when it obviously wasn't. Mislynching should be a cue to reevaluate, not a cue to keep doing what you're doing. That's what bothers me about how you've responded to the lynch.In post 3434, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:One thing that I don’t get is why she voted for Angel and is so angry at both CS and me for Angel lynch. If she really felt it was a bad lynch, then why did she go along with it?
She says if she was a doc, she would have saved him but for someone who claims to be this upset about a mislynch, she seems quite relieved about his death.
Also, why didn’t she use her NA on Sajj? He was adamantly opposed to Angel lynch. or Wheme? I initially thought her reaction was villagery but for her to be this upset about a lynching that she participated in makes no sense.
She is also aware of how anti-town Angel was, it’s not like we lynched Nico or even GIF. I could understand her being upset if either one of them had been mislynched because Nico - self-evident - GIF - sketchy but 0 threat to town but she’s not mad at Sajj for shooting GIF but CS and me are somehow evil people for wanting to eliminate a highly toxic player from the game. Why?
I'm not relieved about Shep's death. I didn't want to die in his place. There's a big difference between the two.
Yes, I'm aware that Angel wasn't playing pro-town. I also strongly opposte policy lynching of any kind. You said you did too, except that's not what your actions or reasoning shows.
I never said you or Shep are "evil people." Again, you keep taking this personally even though I keep telling you it's not. I want you rethinking the game, specifically Random. That's all.-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shep isn't a good townie. I know who Shep's main is, I've played with him before, and we've talked in PM about how we play the game and our strengths and weaknesses. He's bad as town, good as scum. And he admits this openly.In post 3436, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
All of the contradictions are pinging me. She trashes CS for being bad at finding scum OOH then keeps referencing his reads on Random as a basis for her to tunnel him.In post 3435, Wisdom wrote:because shes scum maybe?
I would think if she really wanted random lynched, she would have absolutely saved the one player who was not only scumreading him but had the best chance of persuading others to lynch him, since she has pretty much positioned herself as a broken record about him.
*tin foil* theory: Shoshin is w/w with random?
I reference him re: Random to point out that I'm not alone in suspectnig Random - two other townies also did, Nico and Shep - but I'm the one who caught Random and explained why he's scum to Shep - Shep just agreed, in part because he trusts my scumhunting skills.
Yeah, I get that you keep saying I would have saved Shep. I didn't. I chose not to. Get over it.
Would you have died in place of Angel if Angel was confirmed town? I'm guessing not, since you keep saying her play was anti-town. Just because someone is confirmed town doesn't mean it's worth dying in their place.-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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My question is in reference to this. Why can't it be Random?
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Good analysis. Well done, Nancy!In post 3467, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
If random is scum here, why wouldn’t he lie?In post 3453, Wisdom wrote:besides why the hell would random send a message to nico
And why would he lie about doing it
Doesnt make any sense
He hasn’t confirmed it yet and I don’t like how you’re giving him an out based on you assuming the mod derped. We don’t know that and either do you.
Your defense of random is kind of pinging me because it’s too over the top.
He may still be town but I don’t like how you’re automatically assuming a mod derp. Until RC tells me otherwise, I believing there wasn’t one.-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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We spoke in the PM, we townread each other, he trusted me so he claimed his role to me, and I eventually claimed mine to him because we got into a discussion about how he wanted to use his role on Nico but needed Nico to live, and I let him know that I was a bodyguard and I'd be on Nico that night.In post 3471, Scioness Sajj wrote:Sho, why did you claim your protective to CShep?-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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The fact that nobody has claimed a communicative targeting Nico means that scum is lying. And that means one of two things: either scum didn't expect Reality's result, which in turn suggests that Reality/Wheme are town, or both Reality/Wheme are scum making a gambit.
I doubt they're scum because their result sort of cleared me, so overall they're probably town.-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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That's circular.In post 3495, Wisdom wrote:
because its you and chickIn post 3492, Shoshin wrote:That's fine, Wisdom. Why can't Random be scum?
No matter how many times you repeat youre achieving nothing
You just said it's me and Chick because it can't be Random, and it can't be Random because it's me and Chick.
Again, why can't Random be scum?-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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So, are you willing to lynch Random?In post 3503, Scioness Sajj wrote:What I am trying to say is that I'm more confident in scum in {chick, random} than in chick/shoshin
What're your thoughts on Wisdom?-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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In post 3538, Scioness Sajj wrote:if we lynch chick on red flip i shoot sho, on green i shoot random
same if we lynch sho.This sequence feels like Random doesn't want to die when I inevitably flip town.
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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What's the difference between your town and scum game?In post 3557, Wisdom wrote:check literally any town game of mine then try again-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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You think he's town here?In post 3587, Scioness Sajj wrote:In post 3543, Shoshin wrote:Hey Sajj, why not lynch Random?
I'd be fine with random, too.In post 3544, Shoshin wrote:Or Wisdom?
I don't really see reasons to lynch wisdom.-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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What's the harm in letting me prove it?In post 3604, Wisdom wrote:You cannot prove shit-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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What the fuck?In post 3610, Reality Check wrote:This game is solved.
I'm town
Wisdom is obvtown
Random is obvtown
I strongly believe the townread on the worst is sheepable.
That leaves three slots. Either there is two scum left and it doesn't matter which order, or there is three and it still doesn't matter.
Wisdom is obvtown?
Random is obvtown?
Are you serious?-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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By dying in place of the nightkill.In post 3619, Scioness Sajj wrote:
how do you think you will prove it?In post 3605, Shoshin wrote:
What's the harm in letting me prove it?In post 3604, Wisdom wrote:You cannot prove shit-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Scumread who? Sajj? No, I strongly townread Sajj.In post 3626, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
You shaded me for daring to sort out Sajj because I can’t read “honesty”; now you you’re suddenly scumreading her?In post 3609, Shoshin wrote:There's literally no harm in letting me prove the role.-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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I didn't even shade you at any point in this game. WtF? I'm at a loss here. Like, you keep misinterpreting my posts in the weirdest ways.In post 3626, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
You shaded me for daring to sort out Sajj because I can’t read “honesty”; now you you’re suddenly scumreading her?In post 3609, Shoshin wrote:There's literally no harm in letting me prove the role.-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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I protect Nancy because that's who I thought scum might kill.
I thought scum would leave Sajj alive to kill me.
I thought Reality would be left alive to mislynch me in the event Sajj failed.
I think Wheme, Random, Wisdom, all would be left alive because they're a potential mislynch, and I wasn't sure either of them were town.
I'm not protecting the worst because I'm not convinced he's town.
So that leaves Nancy as likely nightkill.-
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Shoshin Jack of All Trades
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