Transformers Mafia - Dinobots STRONGEST!

[Fundamental Theorem]

>double posting
>actually posting at all

creature already locktown

sick hot meta reads

Nah, it is too early for locktowning him.

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hmm

why are there 5 players at the bottom of the player list that aren't alphebatized with the rest of us?

I just assumed this was due to a lazy moderator.....

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

PL rc for fun* and profit**

Why are we already policy lynching people?

since i only have a slight bit of experience with 5 other players in this game (namely unrealseal, creature, the worst, radiantcowbells, and gamma emerald) is there anybody here who is known to have a particularly strong scum game that i should know about?

I know for a fact that RadiantCowbells has a notoriously good scumgame....

omg Stungun I'm guessing we don't talk about that one marathon right

you were hard to gather support against, unfortunately :-/
at the very least though that doublevote power was the bomb. thanks ircher (who i think i saw was in this game) for making such fantastic game setups!

also played a game where creature was scum, so i might have a little intel there —> we’ll see

Most people are familiar with Creature's scum game. The issue lies in people mistaking town!Creature for being scum by judging them too early.

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Radiant Horseballs has the worst scum game ever Fundamental Theorem

FTFY

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So, who should I vote.... Maybe I should vote Fire for continuing to get my name wrong....

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So, who should I vote.... Maybe I should vote Fire for continuing to get my name wrong....

whatever you say Fundamental Theorem

I'm heavily inclined to go duel someone right now.... It poses no real detriment to the town as voting for neither candidate is an option.

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For fun of course!

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@mod does voting for neither in a duel also end the day

also I have objections to that statement RC but i would rather not let past quarrels get in the way

especially when new quarrels will likely arise anyways kek

I would imagine not....

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In that case....................

Nah, not quite......

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That's wrong. Everyone else would be lynched except us.

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BAD FIRE.

VOTE: Fire

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Fire, you need to die!

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I have an ability related to the duel mechanic, but since Fire jumped the gun, we can't use it to town's benefit....... (I totally would've dueled Fire otherwise....)

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Why would we do that @Creature?

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Like, that's a great way to ensure town loses.

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Seriously, can we just turbolynch Firebringer?

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Nah.......

If you were smart, you could've dueled me. Then when you lost..........

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I am not...........................................................

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also I hate how he posts at sanic speeds like jesus christ

Who me? I'm a fast typer!

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i don't know your role, for all I know you could have some Scrap/Energon ability that lets you cop 3 players at once that also bulletproofs you.

i also believe it is possible for players to be better at night actions than day play

also ircher is really pinging me right now with that last vote it's too bad I can't fucking vote him.

How am I pinging you?

Also, you can vote me by voting Neither.
Pedit: There is none. Firebringer didn't like 123456789.

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If you look at the duel mechanic in the game that Spy posted it looks like parties just refers to the players in the duel. Also you have to vote for the player you want to win.

Ah, I get it now..... Neither is still strange.... You would think it would be equivalent to a no lynch, but I guess not.

Pedit: Yeah, we need to turbolynch him so the next day comes and I can duel someone!

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I agree.

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Simple. Let me duel tomorrow. Then we can chainlynch players.

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Oh, and nights are instantaneous which I personally think is awesome.

Pedit: Like, if we are fast enough, we may make it where scum can't get a kill in!

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It is really in town's interest right now to try to get a speedlynch off due to the instantaneous night thing.

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Simple. Let me duel tomorrow. Then we can chainlynch players.

stop announcing to scum that you should be night killed.

They aren't going to be night-killing me.

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Like, everyone probably has some ability of some sort.

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It's both!

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But seriously, if you want to kill me, you will have your chance the next day phase (or if scum kills me, but they aren't.)

Pedit: Yeah it does -- The duel ends if a category gets majority. And the duel mechanic by itself does not allow more lynches.

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So who are we speedlynching? I'm leaning towards Fire, but I'm not against lynching Katsuki.

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Firebringer, are you serious?

Pedit: It's unlikely scum noticed.

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Like, instantaneous nights like it works in this game are not at all common.

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Probably one. If we can have multiple, that would be great though!

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But scum would have to realize that instantaneous nights are a thing, and I don't think pre-game was long enough for them to notice.

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Yes, it would be.

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Eh, this is a kind of thing I could see scum!Fire doing.

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Fire prob isn't suicidal enough to duel this early as scum but I'm also prob going to vote no winner b/c fuck him literally to death for dueling this early

Only read to pg7 but I'm out for a while

Voting for no winner means that both of them end up lynched. It really should be called both.

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@skygazer it is memey and that's why Katsuki needs to win

I don't want these random duels to become a thing

I mean they probably will become a thing just to spite me but whatever

They will be alas.

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Garmr, vote someone.

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Okay, done!

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VOTE: Katsuki
We better quicklynch though. If a lynch hasn't happened by noon EDT tomorrow, I'm gonna be upset.

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If Firebringer duels tomorrow, he will be auto-lynched, mark my words.

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Don't worry, we aren't losing much from a short day.

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Okay, Fire can role claim.

But honestly, I don't want to wait for Katsuki to roleclaim.

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(It will take too long.)

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Katsuki (5) - UnrealSeal, Stungun0404, Creature, Fundamental Theorem, Garmr
Firebringer (0) (???)

That's what I have for the votes following the start of the duel.

Pedit: Oh yeah.... Whoops!

VOTE: Firebringer

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Go ahead!
Pedit: Hmmm... Okay, it's not that unlikely.

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Like, if we do it before 6:00 AM EDT tomorrow, I think we have a decent chance at it.

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In all likelihood, the winner of the duel will be night killed.

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Fun tomorrow and more!

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We should decide on a player we want eliminated tomorrow.
Pedit: So many pedits.... ANOTHER ONE!

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Katsuki (2) - UnrealSeal, Toogeloo
Firebringer (5) - Creature, Fundamental Theorem, Skygazer, Stungun0404, Rb, Garmr

Is what I got for duel votes.

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Can we kill players voting the loser of the duel?

I seriously do want us to decide on a good duel candidate or two for the next day.

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Yeah, Fire beat me to it, and I'm pretty annoyed with him about it now...

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So, Toogeloo is scum @Creature?

Pedit: Spiffeh, there is a reason to quicklynch if we pull it off really fast.

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Also, where did the worst go? He was here like immediately before the duel.

Pedit: Pretty much.

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Yes, iit's a really good idea!

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Shush!!!!

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Fun comes tomorrow if and only if Fire doesn't randomly duel someone off the bat tomorrow.

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town has already lost

not if we ignore the people with awful ideas

there is still hope

Ignore the people with "awful ideas" and town will lose.

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I mean, I would prefer to be rid of him tomorrow, but most people prefer the opposite.

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My main goal right now is to try to get us to pull off a quicklynch while it can still be beneficial.

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I mean, I would prefer to be rid of him today, but most people prefer the opposite.

Edit By Way Of Post

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pbbbbpbtpbptbptpbptpbpbt

ok idk what i'm doing yet but apparently 5 ppl think killing kat wo posting is a good idea......? that doesn't even sound right to me but whtvr

but i'm out for tonight

see ya'll tomorrow

pedit: 6........?

nah this means i want kat to _not_ die

Because ya'll are scumbuddies?

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Fun comes tomorrow if and only if Fire doesn't randomly duel someone off the bat tomorrow.

I feel like anyone who engages in consistent dueling would be doing so only to prevent other players from getting abilities. How confident are people in their scum hunting that they'd be able to win a 28 player game without abilities? I'd probably vote against a repeat dueler unless it were closer to endgame.

Good, please do.

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@garmr do you even know if Katsuki is awake at this time of day

you are literally voting for someone who random duels people who haven't posted over someone who could potentially be actually useful

I have history with fire bringer and tbh I don't think his scum, while katsuki on the hand is a 50/50. If kat flips scum I'm lynching you.

how do you reason it's 50/50?

if you assume there's a lot of scum, say 8/28, and if you were town you'd remove yourself from the equation. so you'd have an 8/27 chance of hitting scum - 71% chance you hit town assuming we have a LOT of scum (almost 30% of players)

you're not that new buddy

Where in the world are you getting 8 scum from?

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So, toogeloo is scum.... Got it.....

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Apparently, both Fire and Katsuki can vote.....

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@Spyrex:

Subject: Transformers Mafia - Day 1

let’s remember: we’re voting for the person who wins this duel, not the person that is being lynched.

Oh woops

VOTE: Firebringer

Ohhhhhh
UNVOTE: katsuki

VOTE: Firebringer

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VOTE: Katsuki

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And yes, I'm aware I've basically just told everyone that I have an E or S ability.

I'm pretty sure we all do.

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For the record, I think I'm dueling Toogeloo tomorrow, and if anyone beats me to it, I'm autolynching them.

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It seems a reasonable assumption to make. Just by the nature of the game.

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That doesn't really answer the question though. Is there a lynch too? Like after the duel? Is there any point to not dueling every day? Can we do multiple duels in a day and then a lynch.

I'm guessing I'm just confused about the difference or why someone should be autolynched if they duel me.

No, but some roles may interact with the duel mechanic.

Also, tbh, I'm still scumreading Toogeloo.

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Fine with me. Besides, you're one of my scumreads. (Alongside UnrealSeal and Toogeloo.)

Pedit: Nope, it's happening.

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VOTE: Neither
Two lynches is definitely +Town EV.

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Don’t worry Fire!

I’ll be sure to gladiate Unreal tomorrow.
Pedit: Not sure about RC but agree on Rb.

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Is winning really the most important thing to you Radiant?

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Garmr, 2 lynched even on Town is still +Town EV.

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Fire game threw when he did the duel in the first place.

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report me then.

Nah.

Pedit: Please vote neither.

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(I’m just annoyed that Fire pre-emotes me in dueling someone.)

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Unreal, like the rest of mafia, not everything is black and white.

Fire didn’t actually game-throw.

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Don’t worry Fire!

I’ll be sure to gladiate Unreal tomorrow.
Pedit: Not sure about RC but agree on Rb.

like a couple pages ago you were saying i was scum

what changed?

I honestly don’t know why I said that. I still think you are scum.

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if either aren't lynched today my first post tomorrow is a duel on whoever lived regardless of the other's flip.

I changed my mind. I'm hitching a ride on the injustice train.

Ride or die Cupcake!

VOTE: Katsuki

sketchy as hell.

I agree with this.

if either aren't lynched today my first post tomorrow is a duel on whoever lived regardless of the other's flip.

No.

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Lets make day 2 a duel free day.

As good of an idea that may seem, it is not going to happen.

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Gammagooey is also voting NEITHER but the votecounter isn't picking up his name because the first letter of his name isn't capitalized in the OP.
When Spy gets here we'll fix it.

(We have to get the capitalization correct too? That's a bit restrictive....)

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hmm

why are there 5 players at the bottom of the player list that aren't alphebatized with the rest of us?

I just assumed this was due to a lazy moderator.....

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

PL rc for fun* and profit**

Why are we already policy lynching people?

since i only have a slight bit of experience with 5 other players in this game (namely unrealseal, creature, the worst, radiantcowbells, and gamma emerald) is there anybody here who is known to have a particularly strong scum game that i should know about?

I know for a fact that RadiantCowbells has a notoriously good scumgame....

omg Stungun I'm guessing we don't talk about that one marathon right

you were hard to gather support against, unfortunately :-/
at the very least though that doublevote power was the bomb. thanks ircher (who i think i saw was in this game) for making such fantastic game setups!

also played a game where creature was scum, so i might have a little intel there —> we’ll see

Most people are familiar with Creature's scum game. The issue lies in people mistaking town!Creature for being scum by judging them too early.

Scum

VOTE: fundemental theorum

Do us all a favor and put some reasoning with your reads. (Also, you have a lot of catchup to do.)

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539: post that upholds my theory of toog town. again, this level of theory he's spewing is hard for scum to fake.

It really isn't.

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MariaR gets duelled by me tomorrow if both flips are town btw

Let me do it.

[Fundamental Theorem]

One of you falls dead, cored through.

DrippingGoofball,

Laserbeak, Decepticon Mini-Cassette Reconnaissance

has been killed

Duel Continues.

waste of a kill.

Decepticons are scum.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Page 1:

1. 14 by Skygazer --> Claims miller -->

(Not definite if this was serious, but I will go with it isn't.)

2. 18 by UnrealSeal --> Locktowning Creature based on two posts -->

This is a really bad post as that is not at all what Creature's meta is. Being active at the very beginning of the game is fairly meaningless for Creature (in terms of alignment).

Page 2:

1. 29 by Skygazer --> Wonders why 5 players are listed at the bottom that haven't been alphabetized -->

(As I mentioned earlier, I think this was just a case of the moderator being lazy.)

Page 3:

1. 64 by Stungun0404 --> Has experience with Creature's scum game -->

(Just noting that this statement really isn't very useful as practically everyone is familiar with Creature's meta to some extent. Some people do get it wrong though.)

Page 4:

1. 79 by Brian Skies --> Asks us to ignore his vote on Creature because he did it to be aggravating -->

I don't know about the rest of you, but this post sends off alarm bells for me.

Page 5:

1. 100 by Stungun0404 --> Setup speccing about the number of scum -->

We have a term for these kinds of posts: IIoA.

2. 120 by DrippingGoofball --> "stungun is town" -->

Why? I don't get that impression from their posts so far.

Page 6:

1. 144 by Firebringer --> Duels Katsuki -->

I am more annoyed with this because Firebringer beat me to it versus the duel itself. Aside from that, it really has very little bearing on Firebringer's alignment as I can see him doing this easily as either alignment.

Page 7:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 8:

1. 176 by UnrealSeal --> Scumreads me (in a way) for asking for a quick lynch -->

That's not really good reasoning at all. I honestly think you can find something better in the first few pages than that tbqh.

Page 9:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 10:

1. 242 by Firebringer --> Refuses to role claim -->

I have to wonder... Why?

Page 11:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 12:

1. 281 by UnrealSeal --> "you are literally voting for someone who random duels people who haven't posted over someone who could potentially be actually useful" -->

Why are you white-knighting Katsuki at this point? Sure, I could get not being in favor of having Fire win, but this indicates to me that you know Katsuki's alignment.

Page 13:

1. 303 by rb --> Asks Garmr about why he says Katsuki is 50/50, and presumes that there is 8 scum in this game -->

I'm really curious as to where 8 scum comes from because as the number of scum increases, scum's power increases drastically.

2. 322 by Toogeloo --> States that they just told everyone they have an E and/or S ability -->

I'm really curious as to why Toogeloo felt a need to make this post. I guess scum may have caught it (or maybe not), but I don't think most people would immediately make the connection that Toogeloo's question indicated they had one of those abilities.

Page 14:

1. 330 by Toogeloo --> "Like, can we still vote for a lynch, and the duel is just a mob day lynch?" -->

What kind of question is this?

2. 336 by Creature --> States that Toogeloo is town -->

What caused your read to change?

Page 15:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 16:

1. 377 by MariaR --> "I have no reason to lynch Kat." -->

And? You don't really have a reason to lynch Firebringer either, except maybe for starting the duel (but Fire would do that as either alignment). Unless you are confident one of the two is town, double-lynching is definitely +EV for town because it reduces the number of kills that mafia get to decide.

Page 17:

1. 402 by UnrealSeal --> "Katsuki didn't even post until now and with her recent claim will be relatively easy to sort after the duel." -->

The fact that people believe Katsuki's cop claim is really, really alarming.

2. 403 by Katsuki --> Says there are many people who would duel him at the start, but Firebringer would not be one of them -->

What makes you think that?

Page 18:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 19:

1. 469 by UnrealSeal --> Says they are not interested in sorting -->

And this helps town by ____________________?

Page 20:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 21:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 22:

1. 540 by Skygazer --> "omg Toog is town?" -->

HOW?

Page 23:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 24:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 25:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 26:

1. 647 by Porkens --> Quotes my 107, calls me scum, and votes me -->

What about that post makes me scum, so much so that you want to vote me?

Page 27:

Nothing really of interest.

Page 28:

1. 675 by MariaR --> Says that Katsuki making AtE posts doesn't make them scum -->

Okay, but how are they town?

Page 29:

Nothing really of interest (except that dayvig!).

[Fundamental Theorem]

One of you falls dead, cored through.

DrippingGoofball,

Laserbeak, Decepticon Mini-Cassette Reconnaissance

has been killed

Duel Continues.

waste of a kill.

Decepticons are scum.

Umm... Nevermind this; I misread the win condition.

[Fundamental Theorem]

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Fundamental Theorem (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
Creature (+61%) : He is engaged in the game, and he really feels like town in general.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)
Antihero (+15%) : I like 280 (from an alignment-determining standpoint.)

Porkens (-25%) : I don't like how they spend a bunch of their first few posts just quoting stuff and calling it scum, but that may just be a playstyle issue. Also, how does my 107 make me scum???

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
RadiantCowbells (+55%) : I am leaning towards town based on their posts in general. I especially like their argument for voting neither.

Skygazer (+46%) : They left a pretty good early impression. That said, I'm not sure what to think about 476 and 480. 488 seems bad, but I'm actually kinda inclined to lean towards town for that particular post. 527 is just bad as it tries to assign motivation to the ordering when said motivation likely doesn't exist.

Firebringer (+45%) : To be honest, I think their posts are on the town-side of things, but I'm definitely not confident they are town. 238 really strikes me as a town post. 422 is also good.

Spiffeh (+38%) : Eh, they seem town for the time being.

Garmr (+35%) : Their posts in general have been pretty good.

Brian Skies (-31%) : I really dislike their 79 where they ask us to ignore a vote of theirs because it was simply done to be aggravating. 471 really pings, but I'm not sure why.

Katsuki (-35%) : Their continued AtE really doesn't make me want to townread them in any way.

rb (-39%) : Their posts in general just ping me.

MariaR (-45%) : I really dislike 377. While I don't want to resurrect that argument, MariaR's behavior on page 18 or so pinged me as well. The fact that MariaR in 675 says Katsuki's behavior is not scum-indicative doesn't really say much about Katsuki's alignment. In particular, with the way MariaR is defending Katsuki, I would think they would (as town) point out how Katsuki is town this game, not how they aren't necessarily scum.

Stungun0404 (-48%) : There seems to be quite a few IIoA posts in this ISO. For instance, 64 (about being familiar with Creature's meta) and 100 (setup spec about the number of scum) are examples of IIoA. I also have a serious issue with their reads in 611. And I dislike 620 as well...

Toogeloo (-53%) : Their posts in general strike a scum!chord to me. The thing that seems to stick out about their posts is that they seem to be LAMIST in nature. For instance, 322 has that LAMIST feel. 330 has that feel as well.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)
UnrealSeal (-61%) : I have many issues with this ISO. For instance, 18 is an objectively bad post and feels like scum!Seal trying to pocket and/or buddy Creature. (This is regardless of the fact that it was an exaggeration.) 31 pings me as well. I don't really like 176 because saying someone pings due to asking for a speedlynch sounds much more like a policy reason than a legitimate scumping. Apparently, it doesn't take long for their pings to turn into a full-fledged scumread in 192, but that doesn't mean the reasoning really got any better. Their defense of Katsuki in posts like 281 strikes me as being too forceful/aggressive. 302 is really bad when you consider other posts they have made (like 281). Then we also have posts like 467 (bad logic; get the feeling that Unreal is purposely trying to paint this a certain way) and 469 (where they admit they aren't interested in sorting...)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Fundamental Theorem]

just noticed a crucial error in my earlier post to ft, so ebwop

539: post that upholds my theory of toog town. again, this level of theory he's spewing is hard for scum to fake.

It really isn't.

it's not so much that one post as it is the consistency of the type of theory he has been spewing that is difficult to maintain, and in his early posts his consistency in what i would label "pro-town/solving the game" type of theory is typically

not

an easy facade for scum to maintain--it involves a lot of concentration and energy towards one game. it is very hard to consistently look like you are "pro-town/solving the game" with respect to the very workings of a game (and that's because the way it's set up; as scum already has an advantage here typically anyway). in my opinion, it's much much harder to fake; and i have several games of scumhunting to my experience where this has worked to find townplayers successfully. no, it's not resolutely against attack, but if he keeps it up i'd hard defend him as town. consistency is the key

I like 99.99999% disagree with this post.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Everyone vote neither, please and thank you.

We are unnecessarily stalling at this point.

[Fundamental Theorem]

UNOFFICIAL VOTECOUNT:

neither (12): Gammagooey, RadiantCowbells, Firebringer, rb, UnrealSeal, Fundamental Theorem, the worst, Skygazer, Gamma Emerald, Porkens, Papa Zito, Creature
Katsuki (5): MariaR, Katsuki, Brian Skies, BlueBloodedToffee, Fate
Firebringer (5): stungun0404, Toogeloo, Spiffeh, Antihero, Garmr

Not Voting (6): Vecna, Princess Celestia, Lady Lambdadelta, dramonic, neither, Prof Fridays

With 27 alive, it takes 14 to lynch.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I don't like FT (very lightly) townreading me when they have more bad to point out than good.

It's harder to point out good stuff than bad stuff, plus I put in more faith to my earlier impressions than later impressions.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Then you should check out his Porkens read.

??? I don't see the connection?

[Fundamental Theorem]

Then you should check out his Porkens read.

Nevermind on this. The list is just poorly organized.

(That's why you should read the second spoiler. And it really isn't poorly organized --> Townreads at the top, followed by null and neutral reads, and ending with scumreads on the bottom.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

Yeah, they should be. I make it clear why I differentiate between the two in the list.

[Fundamental Theorem]

As I stated, a lot gut!scum!pings. It may be in part due to a bias of disagreeing with their reads though.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Their ISO in general.

[Fundamental Theorem]

If there were specific posts, I'd probably point them out. Gut reads are a lot harder to explain, especially when they are consistent (rather than pertaining to individual posts.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

how are you so sure they're both town

@Skygazer (Minor point, but still something to consider.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

Gonna go ahead and say this:

If I win a duel, the day will not end.

With that said, we can chainlynch people today.

[Fundamental Theorem]

VOTE: MariaR

[Fundamental Theorem]

I thought there was more support for MariaR. (Plus Fire’s final read.)
VOTE: UnrealSeal

[Fundamental Theorem]

We have 7 days. That means we can get potentially 3 or 4 lynched off today. The main thing is to determine who we are lynching.

[Fundamental Theorem]

What about UnrealSeal tho?

[Fundamental Theorem]

Gonna go ahead and say this:

If I win a duel, the day will not end.

With that said, we can chainlynch people today.

[Fundamental Theorem]

We have (expired on 2018-07-22 15:17:14) to decide, as a group, who I’m dueling.

[Fundamental Theorem]

No guarantees on that, but I’ll think about it.

[Fundamental Theorem]

We have (expired on 2018-07-22 15:17:14) to decide, as a group, who I’m dueling.

Duel me?

Why? If you are Town, you do not want to duel me because mechanical, it benefits town for me to win.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Only lambdelta hasn’t posted. Everyone else has.

Pedit: My role because allows us to get multiple lynched in, but the only way for it to increase Town EV is if they have a chance of actually falling on scum. If you are Town and I am, there is no point for me to duel you from your standpoint.

Pedit2: Good point.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Again, if you are Town, you don’t want to duel me (and I wouldn’t want to duel you in that case).

[Fundamental Theorem]

From your point of view, you should be confirmed Town.
Furthermore, let’s assume (regardless of its true) that you currently townread me.

Tell me how dueling you benefits town from your POV given the above assumptions.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Oh, I should probably specify. I think Gammagooey is maf, thoughts?

Why?

They haven’t done much at all if I remember correctly.

[Fundamental Theorem]

To be clear, my “duel does not end the day” ability is a passive energon ability, and I clarified Day 1 (during which Fire pre-empted me) that if I did energon the first time (I.e.: without Energon beforehand), my ability would still activate.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I’m going to sleep.

Remember, if anyone duels before me, they deserve to be autolynched.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I bet Antihero rolled scum this game

DUEL ME SCRUB

DUEL ANTIHERO

Oh hi scum! Please auto-lynch this (i.e.: vote for antihero or neither).

VOTE: Antihero

[Fundamental Theorem]

You are firm irch town ya?

Let’s be real: if I were scum, it would be much more likely that I would’ve started a duel by this point. That aside, you haven’t explained why you suspect me in any way.

Pedit: Neither works too I guess; lemme finish reading the thread.

[Fundamental Theorem]

There is no such thing as a free lunch. You are fooling yourself.

I dueld antihero.

Spiffy, i hear your ask.

TINSTAAFL is totally irrelevant here.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I did, and I bet on my ability to convince you that it's preferable to let me eat antihero than losing your goldenboy

If you truly wanted scrap from Antihero so bad, you could’ve at least waited until after I did my duel and used my ability before you fueled. There would probably still be people who hated you for it, but at the very least, you would have a chance of winning this duel.

[Fundamental Theorem]

The bottom line is that no scum player would random duel today after all the shit Firebringer got for it last Day

While it was an extremely suboptimal move for Porkens to have done this as town, the fact that they keep soft claiming some role needing scrap makes it pretty obvious that they had some PURPOSE for the move as town.

The fact that UnrealSeal is painting scum motivation into this move is pretty ridiculous and sketchy af

I thought scrap abilities were hidden?

[Fundamental Theorem]

If people are going to keep voting in favor of killing the obvious town player I'm probably just gonna stop posting and pray that I get night killed

It would be one thing if Porkens did this and Anti was contributing in a way I expect town!him to be contributing, but Anti has done next to nothing and Porkens has basically claimed a power role and again, would DEFINITELY not have dueled in this manner as scum.

Spiffeh, aside from the audacity of the duel, why do you think Porkens is town here?

[Fundamental Theorem]

Examining the motivations for dueling seems like it leads you invariably toward a town read on Porkens.

But isn’t that a WIFOM argument?

[Fundamental Theorem]

LLD why can't it be a town role?

I think it did sound like a 3rd party claim: he said he needed it before someone else got it. That sounds like a 3rd party win condition to me.

[Fundamental Theorem]

LLD why can't it be a town role?

I think it did sound like a 3rd party claim: he said he needed it before someone else got it. That sounds like a 3rd party win condition to me.

(He said there is competition from <redacted>)

[Fundamental Theorem]

If people are going to keep voting in favor of killing the obvious town player I'm probably just gonna stop posting and pray that I get night killed

It would be one thing if Porkens did this and Anti was contributing in a way I expect town!him to be contributing, but Anti has done next to nothing and Porkens has basically claimed a power role and again, would DEFINITELY not have dueled in this manner as scum.

Spiffeh, aside from the audacity of the duel, why do you think Porkens is town here?

(Unless someone gives a good answer to this, I think voting Neither is the way to go because tbqh, I don’t townread Antihero, but I don’t townread Porkens either and think the fact that he fueled to be a bit too WIFOM-y for my tastes.)
VOTE: neither

[Fundamental Theorem]

OK, i’m townreading Lady Lambdadelta, to be upheld in the instance that this is positively confirmed to not be a scum vs. scum duel —> which i very highly doubt would be the case this early on when thinking about it. just like the last vote, would be extremely risky for scum to duel scum this early i think. the only motive i could foresee is if it gives them a power that seriously advances their wincon.

purely on a gameplay level, porkens does not seem like town to me at this moment —> i think he’s scum. reason is i don’t feel town reaches for the duel this early in the day phase after seeing the result of the last duel, even if they’re relatively inattentive. porkens can’t claim to being inattentive though, given that he was still responding to posts in what was basically the rvs area of this thread (posts 1-150) when he pulled the duel card out, yet he supposedly “knows” he can duel now? and apparently he voted neither dueler to win the last duel. so why is he suddenly wanting to win this duel, but he was against either winning the last duel. like, really?

Everyone is forgetting a crucial point: this game is almost guaranteed to be multi ball or have an SK at least. Neither Fate nor Radiant really sound like vig kills to me.

That means scum may duel scum without realizing it. (It’s still unlikely, but the probability is definitely >0.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

@fundamental theorem: i understand rc as being a scum kill, i agree on that matter. however, what leads you to believe that fate was a scum kill choice? is fate a good townplayer?

At the very least, I know they have quite the reputation on the site, and I honestly don't see why a vigilante would kill Fate. There are better vig targets than that.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Okay, let's think about the duel mechanic's EV then.

Let's assume that this game is multiball (which may not be a reasonable), and there are 4 scum on each team. We also have 5 dead town players so far out of a total of 28 players.

That means we are looking at 15-4-4 right now.

The probability that a town player duels scum is thus equal to (8 / 22) ~ 0.3636.
The probability that a player is town is equal to 15 / 23 ~ 0.6522.
Thus, the probability that a player is town AND that they dueled scum is (8 / 22) * (15 / 23) ~ 0.2372.

The probability that a scum A player duels a scum B player is (4 / 19) ~ 0.2105.
The probability that a player is scum A is equal to 4 / 23 ~ 0.1739.
Thus, the probability that a player is scum A AND that they dueled scum B is (4 / 19) * (4 / 23) ~ 0.0366. (This is also the probability that a player is scum B AND that they dueled scum A if they chose randomly.)

What's the probability that both are scum? It is simply 2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19) ~ 0.0732.
What's the probability that both are town? It is simply (15 / 23) * (14 / 22) ~ 0.4150.
What's the probability that exactly one is scum? It is simply 1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19)) ~ 0.5118.

What's the probability at least one is scum? It is simply 1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) ~ 0.5850.
-----
If town never votes for neither, what's the EV for town today? Let's say there is a 50% chance that we let Porkens win and a 50% chance that we let Antihero win (for EV purposes).

It does not matter because they are both scum : 2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19) ~ 0.0732.
It does not matter because they are both town : (15 / 23) * (14 / 22) ~ 0.4150.
We select town if one is scum and one is town : (1 / 2) * (1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19))) ~ 0.2559.
We select scum if one is scum and one is town : (1 / 2) * (1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19))) ~ 0.2559.

Probability that we select a town winner : ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) + ((1 / 2) * (1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19)))) ~ 0.6709.
Probability that we select a scum winner : (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19)) + ((1 / 2) * (1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) - (2 * (4 / 23) * (4 / 19)))) ~ 0.4882.
-----
If we always vote for neither, the probability we kill scum today is the same as the probability that at least one is scum: 1 - ((15 / 23) * (14 / 22)) ~ 0.5850.
-----
Interpret this as you will.

[Fundamental Theorem]

(Like, if I was a vig that was going to shoot a lurker, I'd be shooting someone like Vecna, Prof Fridays, or Princess Celestia who have no idea about their skill and who have been useless so far in the game.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

re 1168

literally marry me post-game
this is what I've been trying to say

I would like to note that I left it at an "Interpret it as you will" for multiple reasons: 1) I'm assuming this multiball (though it's semi-reasonable) 2) I'm assuming there are 4 scum on each team (which may not be reasonable... I wouldn't know) 3) Doing "Neither" does have the disadvantage of having a very high probability of lynching at least one town which one has to factor in as well.

[Fundamental Theorem]

in that case neither vote seems obvious right?

what agenda are you playing to with this current push? i think lld’s case is a pretty damn good reason not to choose “neither”. it’s also a quite simple way scum can avoid choosing sides - so if you had to choose, which of the two players would you prefer survives?

Simple solution to the lack of accountability issue --> Force them to express their reads on the two players (regardless of what they vote).

[Fundamental Theorem]

There's really no reason to be talking about multiball right now.

so

but probably multiball so.... not really?

the multiball thing tho

also there seems to be a good chance of multiball

If it turns out we are actually in multiball - this guy, right here.

lol speculating whether it's multiball or not

Both of these posts are sketchy imo though I'm kinda inclined to give Creature a pass here.

[Fundamental Theorem]

it’s completely possible there’s a town day or night vig, one single scum team, and some sk’s/indie roles. why conclude multiball?

1) We already had a day vigilante fire (which we'll assume is scum because again, that wasn't really a town shot) 2) Radiant makes zero sense as a vigilante shot, and everyone here should know that. Given Fate's reputation on this site, they make very little sense as a vigilante shot as well, especially among the older players in this list. 3) Just by the sheer number of players in this game, it's pretty likely that the game is multiball and/or there is a SK (though I kinda consider both to be around the same thing.) 4) I'm not really familiar with Transformers, but I'm pretty sure from a flavor standpoint that it's likely this game's multiball or has a Serial Killer.

Thus, it's not an unreasonable assumption to make.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Duckling, tbqh, you haven't convinced me that you are town this game.

[Fundamental Theorem]

HELLO

HI

THIS IS PROFESSOR LLD

TODAY, WE'RE GOING TO PLAY A GAME.

THE GAME IS

"WHY IS VOTING NEITHER ANTI-TOWN?"

WELL IT'S SIMPLE.

DO YOU THINK, IN THIS GAMESTATE, SCUM DUELED THEIR OWN TEAM?

NO.

SO WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IF YOU VOTE NIETHER IS "AFTER I SAW 2 KILLS N1 AND ONE KILL DAY 1, AND WE HAVE 5 DEAD TOWNIES, I'M OK WITH ONE TOWNIE DYING"

INSTEAD OF

I DON'T KNOW

READING EITHER ONE.

AND IF THEY'RE BOTH TOWN, PICK SOMEONE BASED ON FUCKING USEFULNESS.

KILLING THEM BOTH IS BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.

ALSO, 2 KILLS LAST NIGHT, SO LET'S EVEN ASSUME BEST CASE SCENARIO.

SCUM/SERIAL KILLER DUELED OTHER POTENTIAL SCUM TEAM/SERIAL KILLER.

ODDS OF THAT VERY LOW SINCE SCUM PROBABLY WON'T BE CASUALLY DUELING, AND IF THEY ARE AS A GAMBIT IT WON'T BE ON SCUM MOST OF THE TIME.

SO ENOUHG LAZY VOTING PICK ONE.

You have to consider the converse as well--the probability of lynching scum. This post only really addresses the probability of lynching town, which tbf, is higher when we pick neither versus when we go with one and lynch them.

The only thing that I think may be clearly better about choosing someone over neither (besides the accountability issue which I already kinda addressed) is that scum should be more inclined to shoot the winner of the duel since I'm willing to think that a good number of abilities require Energon to use (and there are also the hidden scrap abilities as well!) That's good in a way because 1) if we have two anti-town killers, they may end up shooting the same target (which should be a good thing) and 2) it helps protects other valuable town players

[Fundamental Theorem]

i thought i wass a mafia traitor but i misread my role pm :> dontchu worry about that

ok talk to me about my initial reads, are any of those glaringly incorrect or do you strongly disagree?

Elaborate on how you misread your role pm.

[Fundamental Theorem]

point being?

I'm saying I'm not giving you a pass simply because I agree with you and that if you are town, you need to do a better job of showing it.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Okay, that's believable.

[Fundamental Theorem]

HELLO

HI

THIS IS PROFESSOR LLD

TODAY, WE'RE GOING TO PLAY A GAME.

THE GAME IS

"WHY IS VOTING NEITHER ANTI-TOWN?"

WELL IT'S SIMPLE.

DO YOU THINK, IN THIS GAMESTATE, SCUM DUELED THEIR OWN TEAM?

NO.

SO WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IF YOU VOTE NIETHER IS "AFTER I SAW 2 KILLS N1 AND ONE KILL DAY 1, AND WE HAVE 5 DEAD TOWNIES, I'M OK WITH ONE TOWNIE DYING"

INSTEAD OF

I DON'T KNOW

READING EITHER ONE.

AND IF THEY'RE BOTH TOWN, PICK SOMEONE BASED ON FUCKING USEFULNESS.

KILLING THEM BOTH IS BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.

ALSO, 2 KILLS LAST NIGHT, SO LET'S EVEN ASSUME BEST CASE SCENARIO.

SCUM/SERIAL KILLER DUELED OTHER POTENTIAL SCUM TEAM/SERIAL KILLER.

ODDS OF THAT VERY LOW SINCE SCUM PROBABLY WON'T BE CASUALLY DUELING, AND IF THEY ARE AS A GAMBIT IT WON'T BE ON SCUM MOST OF THE TIME.

SO ENOUHG LAZY VOTING PICK ONE.

You have to consider the converse as well--the probability of killing scum--with the duel mechanic. This post only really addresses the probability of killing town, which tbf, is higher when we pick neither versus when we go with one and lynch them.

The only thing that I think may be clearly better about choosing someone over neither (besides the accountability issue which I already kinda addressed) is that scum should be more inclined to shoot the winner of the duel since I'm willing to think that a good number of abilities require Energon to use (and there are also the hidden scrap abilities as well!) That's good in a way because 1) if we have two anti-town killers, they may end up shooting the same target (which should be a good thing) and 2) it helps protects other valuable town players

EBWOP for clarity.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I literally thought I was a mafia traitor until last night sooooo anyone who's townreading me probably needs to do a quick hard reset

is this a scumclaim? i was already starting to think you might be scum, so official

FoS

on the worst.

@ft, you have some interesting points, however i felt you went to an exhausting level of detail for your calculations as if you’d bet everything in this game that this game is multiball —> which again concerns me. it’s totally possible we have a multiball setup, it’s just i have not reached that conclusion myself.

is there a possibility that one single scum team killed dgb day 1 and killed rc night 1, but someone who is relatively inexperienced with fate vigged him n1?

There is a chance that Fate was vigged, just an extremely low one imo.

People who I am almost certain would not vig Fate:
Antihero
Fundamental Theorem (because I wouldn't do it in this game as I already stated---much better vig targets imo)
Lady Lambdadelta
Papa Zito
Spiffeh
Rb (I'm sure they've played with Fate before)

People who I am very confident would not vig Fate (based on join date):
BlueBloodedToffee
Brian Skies
Creature
Gammagooey
Garmr
MariaR
Porkens
Princess Celestia (Seems like an alt imo--if not, I would be wrong about this.)
Prof Fridays
Toogeloo
Dramonic

People who might vig Fate (based on join date):
Gamma Emerald (???)
Skygazer
UnrealSeal
Vecna (???)
Stungun0404
the worst (They haven't really played a lot until recently I believe (as in about a year or so ago))

[Fundamental Theorem]

how do you figure that's a scumclaim?0

well, i have an idea of your gameplay, having overseen a scum game of yours and played in a marathon game where you were scum, and i think this is something you’d pull as it seems within your scumrange to make a statement like that. you have a tendency to make statements as scum from my memory that intend to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes precisely like the one you made there, so i can only assume you might be scum

Yeah, except this really does seem a genuine mistake.

(In particular, I misread the win condition as originally meaning Decepticons were scum.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

If people are going to keep voting in favor of killing the obvious town player I'm probably just gonna stop posting and pray that I get night killed

It would be one thing if Porkens did this and Anti was contributing in a way I expect town!him to be contributing, but Anti has done next to nothing and Porkens has basically claimed a power role and again, would DEFINITELY not have dueled in this manner as scum.

Spiffeh, aside from the audacity of the duel, why do you think Porkens is town here?

(Spiffeh still needs to answer this.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

@UnrealSeal I don't see why you're not really considering the possibility that they are dumb!town?

I'd also think that Ircher would have one of Porkens' scum buddies in mind to duel if Porkens were to sacrifice himself in order to prevent Ircher's ability from activating. Who do you think that would be?

I feel like you're reaching to paint Porkens' move in a scummy light and ignoring the easier conclusion to draw: that they are town, weren't really paying attention, and just wanted to use the role that they've been hinting at

I have considered that possibility which is why I originally voted Neither.

But combined with Porkens refusing to role claim, I think the possibility he's scum is also really good.

in my mind both players are scummy but I know that they can't both be scum (unless theres a Traitor or it's scum v. sk which I doubt) so I'm really weighing up who I has the higher chance to flip scum and that's Porkens

but the real answer is I refuse to live in a reality where any one town player is this stupid

WHAT

SOMEONE READ THIS AND TELL ME IF THIS MAKES ZERO SENSE LIKE I THOUGHT

(Eh, this comes pretty close to zero sense imo. I would think that a great degree of rewording or clarifying would help out a lot here.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

^ fair enough. but the worst can be pretty hard to nab when he is scum, because it’s one thing being convinced he’s scum, but it’s another deal getting him lynched as scum. i learned that the hard way in my marathon game with him, where i was a doublevoter (surely, you remember this ircher, as you were the mod)! his play in the scum game of his i overseen just happened to further my stance about him being a pretty good scumplayer. he can make almost anything look genuine as scum

but i’ll digress on him for now. i really have not seen his townplay.


and also ft, your theory also assumes someone didn’t genuinely find fate scummy.

(That's why I'm not giving the worst a free pass here.)

As for the theory, I find it really hard to believe someone would vig Fate for any reason besides policy-shoots on lurkers. Fate didn't really post much at all, and someone would have to really explain to me why they thought Fate's posts were scummy enough to deserve to be vigged.

[Fundamental Theorem]

im at work for the next 5 days and im working like 11 hour days

can someone just tell me who to vote, and next day phase can we not fucking duel in the first 24hrs

ive barely read and i dont have any real opinion on antihero/porkens beyond theyve both barely posted and i dont care which one lives, and i dont see myself having time in the near future to figure that out, so ill defer to a townread on this one

Antihero or neither. I really don't care, but some other people do.

As for tomorrow, UnrealSeal needs rope. Their D1 ISO wasn't good imo, and their D2 ISO is zero improvement from Day 1.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I'm gonna be going off of mostly memory for probably the entire game b/c it's pretty much already too big to go back and find shit I want to bring up easily

So I remember several people mentioning a scumread on UnrealSeal - why? he's not ULTRA-TOWN but seems like he's being pretty transparent with how he's feeling about the game and that feels pretty good to me

I'd agree that Antihero's posting doesn't feel great yet

Something to note is that it seems like we've got a lot of repeating roles from Dynasty Warriors, but some of the alignments are going to be shuffled around - MariaR's "I just win when someone duels me" ability was from a 3rd party multi-lyncher, Fundamental's was mine (town), there was a dayvig (though Vi-town's was public that game), and there was a scum role that redirected all actions including duels away from them that would HAVE to be lynched normally instead of using the duel mechanic. That last one is reeeal important to remember in case it's on scum/3rd party again.

I'm not super thrilled with Fundamental's posts aside from his readslist but I also don't think he should die today so shrugs. I do want him to get a claim from whoever he's seriously considering dueling before the duel starts though.

Last thing is I don't remember if I mentioned this earlier but Skygazer feels really town for how she went about claiming

Is it just me, or does this post have give off scum!vibes?

[Fundamental Theorem]

Examining the motivations for dueling seems like it leads you invariably toward a town read on Porkens.

But isn’t that a WIFOM argument?

Not a true WIFOM, no (a true WIFOM being 50/50). You could say it's 70/30 WIFOM in favor of town. I mean, many arguments are WIFOM with varying probabilities. In this case we're dealing with more than just two men and two glasses of wine.

I'd say it's more like 60/40 WIFOM in favor of town (at best and just based on the probability being greater that someone is town than scum) which I don't consider high enough odds to not be in favor of just policy-lynching Porkens.

[Fundamental Theorem]

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Fundamental Theorem (100%) : Role PM

DrippingGoofball (100%) : Laserbeak, Decepticon Mini-Cassette Reconnaissance (Shot day 1).

Firebringer (100%) : Onslaught, Combaticon Strategist (Lost duel day 1).

Katsuki (100%) : Dirge, Seeker Doppleganger (Lost duel day 1).

Fate (100%) : Swindle, Combaticon Profiteer (Killed night 1).

RadiantCowbells (100%) : Bombshell, Insecticon Neutralizer (Killed night 1).

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
Creature (+61%) : He is engaged in the game, and he really feels like town in general.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)
Antihero (+15%) : I like 280 (from an alignment-determining standpoint.)

Dramonic (+5%) : Haven't really done much this game, but I agree with their Seal scumread (as in the scumread itself, not the reasons which weren't really given except an associative tell.)

The Worst (+3%) : I can believe they originally thought they were a mafia traitor at first, but I'm not 100% convinced this is town yet.

Gamma Emerald (+2%) : The 180 in 1079 is pretty bad imo, but the rest of the ISO seems pretty nullish/semi-decent.

Papa Zito (-15%) : I don't really like 1099, and I find 1147 a little suspicious, but I'm not convinced either is alignment-indicative.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
Skygazer (+49%) : They left a pretty good early impression. That said, I'm not sure what to think about 476 and 480. 488 seems bad, but I'm actually kinda inclined to lean towards town for that particular post. 527 is just bad as it tries to assign motivation to the ordering when said motivation likely doesn't exist. I did like their posts at the start of day 2.

Lady Lambdadelta (+44%) : Despite being completely absent day 1, I've liked their contributions for day 2 in terms of their alignment. For instance, 1007 registers as a town post to me (though I know that Lambdadelta is known for using a great degree of AtE.) 1020 and 1050 have a town!vibe as well.

Spiffeh (+40%) : Eh, they seem town for the time being. I'm inclined to townread them somewhat for their argument that Porkens is town because scum wouldn't duel, even if I don't really agree with the logic 100%.

Garmr (+35%) : Their posts in general have been pretty good.

Brian Skies (-31%) : I really dislike their 79 where they ask us to ignore a vote of theirs because it was simply done to be aggravating. 471 really pings, but I'm not sure why. Their comment in 1082 (and a similar comment or two later on) also didn't really sound like town. There was also the fact that they were really pressing to be a sacrifice in a duel with me at the start of day 2--it's odd to say the least, but makes me lean towards town (with respects to that). I'm still getting an overall scum-feel here.

rb (-35%) : Their posts in general just ping me, though it may just be me disagreeing with their initial reads (and then tunneling them to an extent).

Porkens (-38%) : I don't like how they spend a bunch of their first few posts just quoting stuff and calling it scum, but that may just be a playstyle issue. Also, how does my 107 make me scum? I'm also really annoyed by the sheer anti-town nature of their duel day 2, but I'm not naive enough to assume it *must* come from scum.

Stungun0404 (-43%) : There seems to be quite a few IIoA posts in this ISO. For instance, 64 (about being familiar with Creature's meta) and 100 (setup spec about the number of scum) are examples of IIoA. I also have a serious issue with their reads in 611. And I dislike 620 as well... (Their day 2 posts seem a bit better, but meh...)

MariaR (-44%) : I really dislike 377. While I don't want to resurrect that argument, MariaR's behavior on page 18 or so pinged me as well. The fact that MariaR in 675 says Katsuki's behavior is not scum-indicative doesn't really say much about Katsuki's alignment. In particular, with the way MariaR is defending Katsuki, I would think they would (as town) point out how Katsuki is town this game, not how they aren't necessarily scum. Their day 2 posts don't really seem that much better.

Prof Fridays (-45%) : 1039 really rubs me the wrong way. 1059 does as well--I think it's the apathetic feel to the comment that gives me scum!feels. 1076 really sounds like scum that *knows* Porkens is town.

Toogeloo (-47%) : Their posts in general strike a scum!chord to me. The thing that seems to stick out about their posts is that they seem to be LAMIST in nature. For instance, 322 has that LAMIST feel. 330 has that feel as well. (Note: While nothing has really changed my mind about this slot, the confidence rating dropped significantly because I think I may have been biasing myself too much against them.)

Gammagooey (-49%) : Their day 1 contributions were minimal. 960 feels off in a way. I'm also not sure what to think about the continued reference to Dynasty Warriors, but I have to admit, I'd probably lean towards town on that aspect. 1001 gives scum!vibes as well. 1012 is objectively bad play. I also don't see what about Porken's claim makes Gammagooey 180 in 1089.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)
UnrealSeal (-70%) : I have many issues with this ISO. For instance, 18 is an objectively bad post and feels like scum!Seal trying to pocket and/or buddy Creature. (This is regardless of the fact that it was an exaggeration.) 31 pings me as well. I don't really like 176 because saying someone pings due to asking for a speedlynch sounds much more like a policy reason than a legitimate scumping. Apparently, it doesn't take long for their pings to turn into a full-fledged scumread in 192, but that doesn't mean the reasoning really got any better. Their defense of Katsuki in posts like 281 strikes me as being too forceful/aggressive. 302 is really bad when you consider other posts they have made (like 281). Then we also have posts like 467 (bad logic; get the feeling that Unreal is purposely trying to paint this a certain way) and 469 (where they admit they aren't interested in sorting...) As far as day 2 goes, their ISO really hasn't improved that much. Lady Lamdadelta brought up some decent points against them.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player.

Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

(Updated reads--a good portion is the same from my previous reads, but I did update a large portion of it as well.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

Vecna needs to be.vigged.

Also:
VOTE: Antihero

[Fundamental Theorem]

Im gonna be low activity here for a bit longer - have two other games going on and still have a ton to catch up on but little time atm.

That’s not low activity. That’s zero activity.

[Fundamental Theorem]

words

Is it just me, or does this post have give off scum!vibes?

do you want a response to this or do you not really give a fuck?

it'd mostly be a bit on why I'm a little paranoid of you for your early play and then an explanation on why I keep bringing up Dynasty Warriors so damn much, so if you don't really care about either of those I'm not gonna waste both of our times and clutter up the thread even more

Not from you, but yes for everyone else.

[Fundamental Theorem]

ok, let’s put these responses side-by-side and see if i can derive anything from them.

@mariar, where do you stand regarding garmr at the moment and why?

Pretty strong tr I like his posting and I can see his thoughts a buddy of mine like just read his tone and thought should be obv imo

@garmr, where do you stand regarding mariar at the moment and why?

She's as town as DGB was and I thought that since day 1 she just looks scummy to the average player.

well, i’m not quite sure either of these responses gave me the intel i wanted regarding an ai train-of-thought from either of them, BUT i feel comfortable concluding they are definitely not scum partners if one happens to flip scum as little to nothing in their iso before this was about each other, and both read somewhat genuine.

I don’t really follow what your goal here was to begin with.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I literally thought I was a mafia traitor until last night sooooo anyone who's townreading me probably needs to do a quick hard reset

is this a scumclaim? i was already starting to think you might be scum, so official

FoS

on the worst.

@ft, you have some interesting points, however i felt you went to an exhausting level of detail for your calculations as if you’d bet everything in this game that this game is multiball —> which again concerns me. it’s totally possible we have a multiball setup, it’s just i have not reached that conclusion myself.

is there a possibility that one single scum team killed dgb day 1 and killed rc night 1, but someone who is relatively inexperienced with fate vigged him n1?

There is a chance that Fate was vigged, just an extremely low one imo.

People who I am almost certain would not vig Fate:
Antihero
Fundamental Theorem (because I wouldn't do it in this game as I already stated---much better vig targets imo)
Lady Lambdadelta
Papa Zito
Spiffeh
Rb (I'm sure they've played with Fate before)

People who I am very confident would not vig Fate (based on join date):
BlueBloodedToffee
Brian Skies
Creature
Gammagooey
Garmr
MariaR
Porkens
Princess Celestia (Seems like an alt imo--if not, I would be wrong about this.)
Prof Fridays
Toogeloo
Dramonic

People who might vig Fate (based on join date):
Gamma Emerald (???)
Skygazer
UnrealSeal
Vecna (???)
Stungun0404
the worst (They haven't really played a lot until recently I believe (as in about a year or so ago))

what if it's mulktiball tho

That’s what I’m trying to show....

[Fundamental Theorem]

@ft, why is creature your biggest townread when he himself has only given 1 townread/townlean in this game? and it’s on toog - who’s closer to your scumread zone. does that concern you at all?

Short Answer: Meta
Longer Answer: He seems interested and engaged in this game which is consistent with his meta.

[Fundamental Theorem]

@Mod: Can you prod Princess Celestia?

[Fundamental Theorem]

As we all watched the bloodbath, a single blast was heard.

Princess Celestia -

Snarl, Dinobot Warrior

was obliterated

Looking for a replacement for BBT

@Spyrex, was this a modkill or something else?

(The BaM ruleset is kinda strange with regards to activity and replacements and whatnot.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

I will say that the droves of people saying they cant play because they cant vote is...disturbing

I agree.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I think scum (Porkens) are trying to take advantage of the Fire v Katsuki duel results from yesterday.

"Surely scum wouldn't be so brazen as to initiate this duel so early after seeing the result of the last one."

I don't agree, at all, but sure, I can see how some of you mistakenly believe this has to be the case again.

purely on a gameplay level, porkens does not seem like town to me at this moment —> i think he’s scum. reason is i don’t feel town reaches for the duel this early in the day phase after seeing the result of the last duel, even if they’re relatively inattentive.

porkens can’t claim to being inattentive though, given that he was still responding to posts in what was basically the rvs area of this thread (posts 1-150) when he pulled the duel card out, yet he supposedly “knows” he can duel now?

and apparently he voted neither dueler to win the last duel. so why is he suddenly wanting to win this duel, but he was against either winning the last duel. like, really?

^Porkens has NO EXCUSE for completely ignoring FT's request for dueling first.

FT also said his role could help town get a second flip today, which COULD HAVE helped balance the power between town and scum today after our fiesta yesterday.

So clearly, there can be scum motivation here since Porkens could have been trying to neuter or hamper FT's role. Especially since we didn't know who FT would have dueled yet (and I'm sure Porkens was a possible candidate just based on FT's and others' reads and he probably

knew

this).

His target was also someone who barely had a chance to post and others were also expressing some suspicion on. So if Anti is town, then this was an opportunistic jump to ride that sentiment and win duel he thought he could win.

I don't think anything Porken's has done is townish at all, and the only thing that even remotely resembles a reason for people thinking he's town is his partial claim which is probably bs anyway. "I really need scrap." Who doesn't?

For the record, UnrealSeal was my most likely target for the duel, but I was trying to give people time to give their thoughts out.

[Fundamental Theorem]

As far as Porken knowing there wasn't currently a duel, I think that is possible without being fully caught up: simply look at the game's title. (Notably, it states when a duel is in progress and not.)

That said, one really should bother reading the thread first rather than make day 2 a repeat of day 1.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I agree 'too dumb to be scum' is generally a bad argument but i think porkens tone and aggression are town

its a huuuuuuge leap to think that this duel by him is scum engineering to take advantage of a situation by pulling a duel like this, when 5 town died in one phase - what motive does scum have for doing this random shit?

its just more likely to come from town, and i think porkens has Town Swag™

WIFOM.

[Fundamental Theorem]

theres really nothing there that can convince me that this is an elaborate scum ruse as opposed to Porkens is town. brash and stupid, but town

Scum can do brash stuff as well.

[Fundamental Theorem]

If porkens flips town we are chainlynching antihero and vigging brian skiss

I thought Porkens had more votes at the moment?

[Fundamental Theorem]

Rb, why do you actually townread Porkens?

[Fundamental Theorem]

And I still hard town read Porkens so yeah

Why? (Aside from the fact he dueled.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

town entrance, town gusto

i think it'd be rly hard to fake this as scum for porkens

(I'll take this as a gutread I guess. I don't agree with it tthough at all.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

I have to agree Antihero isn’t doing much either. I still don’t really get a town!vibe from Porkens ISO though. (And the fact I also want him gone for policy reasons as well doesn’t help his case.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

Like, aside from the audacity of the duel, I need a specific reason why they are town, preferably referencing a post or two from Porkens ISO. I don’t give much stock to the duel argument because I consider it to be heavily WIFOM-based.

[Fundamental Theorem]

Also, I have to admit—Creature had me fooled there to an extent. It definitely says something about being *careful* with your meta reads.