Lynch the Wolves (Game Over)

[Ankamius]

It means Math is scum only if Creature is scum. Otherwise why would scum bother recruiting rather than just killing the town in their hood and having the extra kill to themselves.

[Ankamius]

I'm saying it's really weird for Math to play the way he did if he was scum with Gamma or Brian

He was leading the neighborhood, so he could have swung it over to a kill. A hidden neighborhood that requires two scum kills to get rid of and provides a second kill a night is insane. Yet Math didn't go for that despite him very damn well being capable of thinking of it.

So why would he go this route instead.

[Ankamius]

That's a reason why if we want to lynch in the neighborhood, we should be looking at everyone else within it, because if there is scum in there, it's unlikely to be him.

[Ankamius]

No, town actually is functioning pretty well together

The problem is that the town's collective reads suck.

[Ankamius]

Also 3446 is creepily similar to mastina's posting style, it's freaking me out

[Ankamius]

I think the game state doesn't need a mass claim, mainly.

There's plenty here to work with

[Ankamius]

Wow this gamestate needs some work

Why are we recruiting Nos again, that sounds like a horrible idea

[Ankamius]

Can we not jump off another cliff

[Ankamius]

No we are not lynching Math

[Ankamius]

It's probable that we have scum in the hood and Math is the least likely to be it

We can figure this shit out later, can it for today and let's find the scum outside of the neighborhood

It can't be that difficult since the list of suspects is actually pretty low

[Ankamius]

muffin can still die

Hi, should I suicide bomb there?

Sure, but is there any reason for that over the unresolved Titus/Math thing or Ank?

Are you serious

[Ankamius]

I think this might be too late

sigh

[Ankamius]

Yeah I agree

[Ankamius]

Should I start spamming why lynching Math is a bad idea and why we should be looking at the background slots for scum today instead

Because I feel like nobody even read that part (except for scum, but scum want the Math lynch so they don't give a shit)

[Ankamius]

Should I start spamming why lynching Math is a bad idea and why we should be looking at the background slots for scum today instead

Because I feel like nobody even read that part (except for scum, but scum want the Math lynch so they don't give a shit)

A reasonable discussion is fine O.o?

To me

Math has been a wagon multiple days
Scum in the hood is highly likely
Math is yelly which is how he gets when anti-town and makes him impossible to sort.

There's likely scum in the neighborhood outside of math via gamestate
The only scum that would make any sense with Math in the neighborhood is Creature unless you think Math would play the way he did instead of trying to immediately try to take over the neighborhood for an extra kill that requires lynching two scum to get rid of
Therefore, Math is the least likely scum in the neighborhood via gamestate

[Ankamius]

The neighborhood started with Math+Gamma+Brian slots

If Math + (Gamma+Brian), then why would they recruit and heavily crumb the existence of the neighborhood instead of keeping quiet and taking out the town in the neighborhood. It makes a bit more sense for Gamma+Brian since Math was the one that was crumbing and outed the neighborhood, but I'm a bit iffy on that too.

It's Creature that muddies things.

[Ankamius]

Do you understand why scum would want to keep the existence of a neighborhood they can get a second kill nightly in that also requires lynching two scum to get rid of secret

[Ankamius]

I'm town
Vecna is probably town
Oath is probably telling the truth
Hebichan can float on her claim for another day or two.
My general read of the game is that scum are mostly hanging back and letting town implode, which is supported by the projectmatt+Theta townflips. That means I'm not interested in Mathblade and Titus today.

So my PoI pool is this:

2. HeWhoSwims

7. Nosferatu
8. ArcAngel9
9. Creature
10. zMuffinMan
14. Gamma Emerald
18. Brian Skies

[Ankamius]

why would scum need to recruit a third scum to the neighborhood

just kill the town

[Ankamius]

I am not aware of third party not confirmed being a thing. I think you or Gamma said this game was wolves/humans. If Oath is a third party, he can be scum without being Math aligned.

One of each "race" makes sense for the hood as well. That makes sense on why Math attacks your slot for not killing Oath. Math wanted a crosskill.

What are you even talking about?

Where is this second wolfkill flavor?

This game is called LYNCH THE WOLVES! And this is almost certainly not multiball.

If it's not multiball, how can Oath exist?

did you read the part of day one where we talked about the weird town win condition

the conclusion of that was there was probably non-human town out there

[Ankamius]

are you assuming I'm suggesting scum would use the neighborhood kill on the town neighbor

[Ankamius]

Titus did you read 3403

[Ankamius]

oh wow I'm a survivor now

[Ankamius]

my title changed to survivor

I really have become a jaded old lady

wow

[Ankamius]

Pardon me for thinking it had literally anything to do with this game.

don't mind me

I'm bitter that I ever play mafia anymore

[Ankamius]

well

that post just happened

[Ankamius]

exploding on muffin is a good idea

I want to look into Nosferatu next

[Ankamius]

If he doesn't, then we just lynch him

[Ankamius]

Should I start spamming why lynching Math is a bad idea and why we should be looking at the background slots for scum today instead

Because I feel like nobody even read that part (except for scum, but scum want the Math lynch so they don't give a shit)

A reasonable discussion is fine O.o?

To me

Math has been a wagon multiple days
Scum in the hood is highly likely
Math is yelly which is how he gets when anti-town and makes him impossible to sort.

There's likely scum in the neighborhood outside of math via gamestate
The only scum that would make any sense with Math in the neighborhood is Creature unless you think Math would play the way he did instead of trying to immediately try to take over the neighborhood for an extra kill that requires lynching two scum to get rid of
Therefore, Math is the least likely scum in the neighborhood via gamestate

[Ankamius]

Vecna, three wolves outside the neighborhood just means that:

1. Nosferatu + zMuffinMan + ArcAngel9 have high scum equity immediately
2. Hebichan has a higher likelihood of a false inno (which honestly wouldn't surprise me, a traitor would make sense in this setup)
3. Oath has a bit higher chance of being a liar

[Ankamius]

the "therefore..." doesnt follow from that, ankamius

how

[Ankamius]

Welp

I guess I'm going to have to pull the proficiency card for not lynching Math today then

[Ankamius]

why are we recruiting nos

[Ankamius]

nos is cleared?

[Ankamius]

I think I'm just going to float for another couple of days so we can resolve things that I don't think need to be resolved in the meantime

[Ankamius]

I doubt that

It's entirely possible there are scum without PT access, though.

[Ankamius]

am I needed for anything

[Ankamius]

ok how many stacks of papers do you need sorted

[Ankamius]

Remind me to do iso stuff

[Ankamius]

Oh have we decided on which distraction to lynch yet

[Ankamius]

Oh have we decided on which distraction to lynch yet

[Ankamius]

oh baby give me all the scumreads

[Ankamius]

I'm not convinced town can win anymore tbh

[Ankamius]

not as likely as brian to be the scum in {gamma/brian/creature}

[Ankamius]

I'm town
Vecna is probably town
Oath is probably telling the truth
Hebichan can float on her claim for another day or two.
My general read of the game is that scum are mostly hanging back and letting town implode, which is supported by the projectmatt+Theta townflips. That means I'm not interested in Mathblade and Titus today.

So my PoI pool is this:

2. HeWhoSwims

7. Nosferatu
8. ArcAngel9
9. Creature
10. zMuffinMan
14. Gamma Emerald
18. Brian Skies

this is still roughly where I'm at
I just haven't really cared enough to push further on this since it's a waste of time with everyone so hellbent on wasting a probably key lynch on slots that won't actually help us

[Ankamius]

That l was the reasoning I used to try to force people off him

That wasn't the reason itself, no

[Ankamius]

Titus don't you always see math as scum

[Ankamius]

Like, I don't really know how to approach this game.

I think that lynching Oath is a waste of time and would be catastrophic to town
I think that Math is a wasteful lynch

But how do I get that shit across between all the yelling

[Ankamius]

Like, there's a chess theory that whenever there is tension on the board, it is often to your advantage to maintain that tension until your opponent is forced to dispel it

We have a ton of gamestate tension in this game and I think that if we go about trying to resolve all of it, all we will do is make micro level progress while scum take out everybody that can piece town together afterwards

These lynches achieve nothing other than resolving fleeting dichotomies/trichotomies that don't do anything to sort the rest of the game.

My deductions are that most of the scum are outside of where town is focusing and that is where it has been for most of the game.

The way that Luna Nova got lynched supports it.
Projectmatt was a contentious slot that was consistently scumread, yet it was town.
Theta was a consistent scumread. Town.

Yet the playerlist hasnt learned not to fall into the same trap again and again and it's only going to result in a town loss if we don't wake up from it.

Stop thinking in terms of roles and look at the big picture.

Projectmatt was widely scumread.
TheGoldenParadox, iirc, was pretty widely scumread.
Theta Alpine was widely scumread. All three were town.

Now?

Most of the playerlist is split on Oath and Mathblade is widely scumread. There's no strong defense of Math, similarly to the other slots that I mentioned before.

This shit is so obvious yet either town has already gone so far down the rabbit hole or scum have been stirring shit up way too hard for people to actually scum hunt instead of pissing the game away on setup nonsense that doesn't matter.

[Ankamius]

This setup was clearly designed to be a huge mess to try to sift through as a scum hunting tool.

So stop using it as one.

[Ankamius]

Now are we going to try to actually win the game or are we going to waste what might be our last chance to not have a really embarrassing loss.

[Ankamius]

Speaking of which, I could see a Vecna/Muffin/Brian scumteam with maybe a traitor somewhere

[Ankamius]

Substitute Nos/AA9 if I'm wrong on just one read

But gun to my head, those three slots are the most slimy feeling ones across the game right now.

[Ankamius]

Titus if I had a strong defense of him, he wouldn't be endlessly in contention still

[Ankamius]

The problem is that I think lynching Math is really bad for the gamestate regardless of his flip

We simply don't have time for it anymore

[Ankamius]

The subs are the empty not here slots, Titus.

[Ankamius]

Titus I don't give a shit about lylo right now, I care a lot more about keeping town from fucking imploding today

[Ankamius]

But honestly?

Muffin is just going to go the sarcastic route
Vecna is going to write an essay about my predecessor and other setup stuff that's irrelevant
And Brian is going to continue shading my alignment

Everyone else won't care

I genuinely think it's too late

[Ankamius]

If I am alive come tomorrow, I will reassess the gamestate like I always do

I'm honestly not really sure, but me dying tonight should be a wake up call to the town that's left if it happens

[Ankamius]

Not really sure who would die tonight*

[Ankamius]

I'm going to sleep too

Good night Titus

[Ankamius]

Last thing

I am independently town reading Mathblade.

Call it a soul read, but I really really don't see scum in his play and with how the game has progressed, his day one play strongly suggests town to me.

[Ankamius]

no.

[Ankamius]

no to oath-scum

[Ankamius]

I think Oath is telling the truth as a secondary town that wins with the primary town.

[Ankamius]

Right now town but I'll reassess later

[Ankamius]

no to oath-scum

So yes to math town. ok

Last thing

I am independently town reading Mathblade.

Call it a soul read, but I really really don't see scum in his play and with how the game has progressed, his day one play strongly suggests town to me.

[Ankamius]

Anyway it looks like I missed a bunch of posts somehow but I can't go back and reread right now since it's time to go to work.

So I'll get to it later.

[Ankamius]

I think I'm kind of understanding the setup?

[Ankamius]

I'm not really sure what wolves would have though, or whether they would have a PT or not.

[Ankamius]

I'm not really sure if I should out it though, especially since it's a weird theory.

Question though : is the neighborhood attached to a specific person?

[Ankamius]

Ugh... I don't know where that fits in then

It doesn't really fit my theory

Oh well

[Ankamius]

I think vampires are probably our strongest PRs like I speculated in day one

[Ankamius]

That is looking somewhat reasonable actually

Both PRs that dropped had roles that add people to neighborhoods
Another public neighborhood is already known

And... Every known PR is PT related except for Muffin

[Ankamius]

Unless I forgot a claim somewhere?

[Ankamius]

So it is entirely possible that scum are immune to the checks or just don't have a PT

[Ankamius]

Hi Tora

[Ankamius]

Aw

[Ankamius]

Damn you

[Ankamius]

A Vecna scumflip would be massive tbh

[Ankamius]

Him immediately trying to force through a massclaim right after I had just started trying to pick apart the game was really scummy.
There's still the abrupt day ending day one that was called for by Vecna too right after Math and I started engaging about the game.

[Ankamius]

Not to mention he tried to rolefish me several times

The problem is, why am I still alive if I was seen as that level of a threat (unless somehow I was protected night 2?)

[Ankamius]

Scum trying to kill hebi is a red flag that it's viewed as a threat; I don't see why she needs to die night two otherwise.

[Ankamius]

We don't, afaik there's no info on who scum tried to kill (if any) right now

[Ankamius]

I think I was looking for the wrong things when I looked at my past games with Vecna earlier in the day... I'll have to recheck.

[Ankamius]

Is it that hot in there

[Ankamius]

Yeah, but even bad players can hit a bullseye if they throw enough darts.

Also, Creature claimed Suicide Bomber on Muffin.

If town are so bad that their reads are almost all terrible, then scum don't need to do more than sheep

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Brian Skies

[Ankamius]

That's a statement as much as a vote

[Ankamius]

Jesus Christ

Can we not just start this shit with only three people weighing in on it

Also would probably have had a massclaim if not for this.

Vote: Brian Skies

[Ankamius]

Here's another fun tidbit that relates to my point:

Oath claimed a lynchbaity role on day two.

[Ankamius]

(tl;dr it means that oath is telling the truth and is not scum)

[Ankamius]

Hey guys!
Apologies for the shitty modding, but that should be changing once I sort out the replacements!

We have the necessary number of players offering to replace into the slots that need replacements, it's just a matter of me doing my number/fact/policy-checking to confirm which players should be receiving which slots' roles.

Flavor?

Flavor will be placed here if mastina has the capacity to give it. No promises!

Votecount 2-22 (62) Simple

Theta Alpine - 5 (hebichan, zMuffinMan, Nosferatu, projectmatt, ArcAngel9)

MathBlade - 2 (NicoRobin, RadiantCowbells)

projectmatt - 2 (MathBlade, Gamma Emerald)
Keychain - 1 (HeWhoSwims)
NicoRobin - 1 (Theta Alpine)
Gamma Emerald - 1 (Keychain)
hebichan - 1 (Ankamius)
zMuffinMan - 1 (Creature)

Not Voting - 1 (Vecna)

Mod Notes

• mastina, the moderator, is V/LA over weekends.
  
• Seeking a Keychain replacement.
  
• Seeking a RadiantCowbells replacement.
  
• projectmatt is V/LA for a few days.
  
• NicoRobin failed to produce content in the time allotted, and will be replaced.
  
• mastina will generate a more advanced votecount if she has the capacity to give it. No promises!

<<< Oath replaces Keychain effective immediately.
Titus replaces RadiantCowbells effective immediately. >>>

this is like obvtown status

[Ankamius]

V/LA until 7/30

No guarantees I'll be coherent enough to make headway in this game, I'll have to destroy my sleep schedule the next couple of days to make my work schedule work.

[Ankamius]

"There's no flavor indicating multiple sources killed Theta"

Meanwhile, the flavor indicates the vig and the neighborhood killed Theta.

[Ankamius]

Well you're wrong muffin

I'm a better lurker than both

[Ankamius]

just need cupcake in this game to make this an all-star competition

It still wouldn't even be a contest though

[Ankamius]

I'm just mad

[Ankamius]

I don't even remember what I'm mad about anymore

I'm just mad

[Ankamius]

Wait didn't I have some case or other to pick apart

I kinda remember that

[Ankamius]

I think town is fucked in general sooooo

[Ankamius]

Like any universe where Oath is considered a valid lynch is a town loss universe

[Ankamius]

How much time do we have

[Ankamius]

I will do some reading tonight, I have a theory and if I'm right, it will confirm some scum

[Ankamius]

Are you going to hard push a lynch on some random person now that I claimed that Vecna

You've been the one pushing for random shit when I try to get engaged into the game

[Ankamius]

Don't get too excited, it's the type of confirmed that's Ank-type, aka correct but not sheepable because nobody thinks the way I do

[Ankamius]

Just like Oath being confirmed to be truth claiming

[Ankamius]

Here's another fun tidbit that relates to my point:

Oath claimed a lynchbaity role on day two.

(tl;dr it means that oath is telling the truth and is not scum)

Hey guys!
Apologies for the shitty modding, but that should be changing once I sort out the replacements!

We have the necessary number of players offering to replace into the slots that need replacements, it's just a matter of me doing my number/fact/policy-checking to confirm which players should be receiving which slots' roles.

Flavor?

Flavor will be placed here if mastina has the capacity to give it. No promises!

Votecount 2-22 (62) Simple

Theta Alpine - 5 (hebichan, zMuffinMan, Nosferatu, projectmatt, ArcAngel9)

MathBlade - 2 (NicoRobin, RadiantCowbells)

projectmatt - 2 (MathBlade, Gamma Emerald)
Keychain - 1 (HeWhoSwims)
NicoRobin - 1 (Theta Alpine)
Gamma Emerald - 1 (Keychain)
hebichan - 1 (Ankamius)
zMuffinMan - 1 (Creature)

Not Voting - 1 (Vecna)

Mod Notes

• mastina, the moderator, is V/LA over weekends.
  
• Seeking a Keychain replacement.
  
• Seeking a RadiantCowbells replacement.
  
• projectmatt is V/LA for a few days.
  
• NicoRobin failed to produce content in the time allotted, and will be replaced.
  
• mastina will generate a more advanced votecount if she has the capacity to give it. No promises!

<<< Oath replaces Keychain effective immediately.
Titus replaces RadiantCowbells effective immediately. >>>

this is like obvtown status

[Ankamius]

VOTE: mathblade

my curiosity is peaked. time for a mathblade lynch. give the masses what they want n all that

Wow

I even openly called it out and he did it anyway

[Ankamius]

Nah I l don't think that's true anymore.

I'll get to my stuff shortly here.

[Ankamius]

Also Math

Oath is not mafia, stop

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Titus

[Ankamius]

Vecna is a partner of Titus

[Ankamius]

Vecna is probably the traitor

[Ankamius]

I'm actually like 98% certain Vecna is scum, but lynching him is not useful to us today because of that

We need groupscum.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Brian Skies

Brian Skies needs to die now. He specifically vetoed Oath AND RC vigs to put it on Theta who flipped green.

And Oath let’s not do this again please. For fuck’s sake we determined the cases on me were shit yesterday from RC.

It’s either Oath and Skies as scum Skies and RC or RC and Oath

Those three slots all need death

At work.

Can we have confirmation that Brian Skies specifically argued against a kill on both the Oath and RC slots?

Because if that's true, then he's also scum.

[Ankamius]

Almost50

Ankamius

Luna Nova

projectmatt

TheGoldenParadox

Theta Alpine

Oath

Brian Skies

Titus

Vecna

Creature - Most Likely Scum (out of this list anyways)
HeWhoSwims - Wildcard, but not likely scum
Gamma Emerald - Potentially Scum
hebichan - Unlikely scum
MathBlade - Unlikely scum
Nosferatu - Not Scum
Toranaga - Wildcard
zMuffinMan - Unlikely Scum

[Ankamius]

not following how that makes brian scum

why does brian-scum give a shit about oath (who you think is town)?

Counter question: What do you think scum are planning to do about Oath

[Ankamius]

also vecna is lit. not a wolf so unless you're going to try to argue that he's like a traitor-godfather or something, don't see where you're going with this

What's the double clear on him? I know he was investigated as not having a PT but I'm lost as to the other one

[Ankamius]

Oh seer clear

It's entirely possible, yes

[Ankamius]

I think I have to go back over the beginning of day two and see how RC's gambit fits into this, but this is where I'm at right now.

[Ankamius]

Eh

The gambit and the stuff surrounding it seems neutral, actually.

[Ankamius]

Counter question: What do you think scum are planning to do about Oath

i dunno but having the neighbourhood shoot her prob wouldve been a good idea!

theta was technically lynchbait going into the night phase

taking out the vampire who's claiming she's 1-shot bp and leaving lynchbait around wouldve been something id have considered rather than opposing it

thus im not really following the logic

I think scum specifically want Oath lynched.

[Ankamius]

(hint: that's also one of the reasons I think Brian is scum for those stances)

[Ankamius]

(hint: the other being that the other slot he argued against is his scumpartner)

[Ankamius]

Can we have confirmation that Brian Skies specifically argued against a kill on both the Oath and RC slots?

I argued against the Oath lynch. I guess one could argue that I argued against the RC kill, although I mostly just pushed for a Theta lynch.

Also, whatever angle you're trying to push with the <Brian, Vecna, Titus> scumteam is hilariously bad, but I can't say that it's unexpected coming from

you

. If you think Muffin is unlikely scum, then your Vecna scumread makes no sense at all since the idea of a wolf being immune to not one, but TWO 'prob-not-wolf' roles, according to you, is unlikely and just feels like a made up read.

Oh don't worry, I'll refine my reads down as flips happen.

I strongly believe my view of the gamestate is either dead on or only mildly incorrect, though.

[Ankamius]

I don't know what you classify "Unlikely Scum" as but ok

[Ankamius]

(hint: I think there's more than one vampire)

[Ankamius]

Cool

So you understand why I would say "Unlikely Scum" rather than "Likely Town" then?

[Ankamius]

Keep arguing nonsense Brian

[Ankamius]

You just gave me the answer, Brian

This isn't hard

[Ankamius]

Then start thinking about what scum want to do.

If it doesn't smack you in the face why Oath claiming what he did is a mind numbingly dumb mafia play after that, then I don't know what to tell you.

[Ankamius]

Good point, I forgot my vote was still on Titus.

UNVOTE: Titus
VOTE: Brian Skies

[Ankamius]

Then start thinking about what scum want to do.

If it doesn't smack you in the face why Oath claiming what he did is a mind numbingly dumb mafia play after that, then I don't know what to tell you.

If you've been reading my posts, you wouldn't be saying this to me.

Then you should see why that vote count strongly indicates Oath is town?

[Ankamius]

You're already halfway there, yes the Theta wagon is a big part of it

What else is there

[Ankamius]

Lol

[Ankamius]

Can we lynch Brian now

thanks

[Ankamius]

jesus christ

[Ankamius]

Hey guys!
Apologies for the shitty modding, but that should be changing once I sort out the replacements!

We have the necessary number of players offering to replace into the slots that need replacements, it's just a matter of me doing my number/fact/policy-checking to confirm which players should be receiving which slots' roles.

Flavor?

Flavor will be placed here if mastina has the capacity to give it. No promises!

Votecount 2-22 (62) Simple

Theta Alpine

- 5 (hebichan, zMuffinMan, Nosferatu,

projectmatt

, ArcAngel9)

MathBlade - 2 (NicoRobin, RadiantCowbells)

projectmatt

- 2 (MathBlade, Gamma Emerald)
Keychain - 1 (HeWhoSwims)
NicoRobin - 1 (Theta Alpine)
Gamma Emerald - 1 (Keychain)
hebichan - 1 (Ankamius)
zMuffinMan - 1 (Creature)

Not Voting - 1 (Vecna)

Mod Notes

• mastina, the moderator, is V/LA over weekends.
  
• Seeking a Keychain replacement.
  
• Seeking a RadiantCowbells replacement.
  
• projectmatt is V/LA for a few days.
  
• NicoRobin failed to produce content in the time allotted, and will be replaced.
  
• mastina will generate a more advanced votecount if she has the capacity to give it. No promises!

<<< Oath replaces Keychain effective immediately.
Titus replaces RadiantCowbells effective immediately. >>>

this is like obvtown status

does this make it more obvious

[Ankamius]

Hey guys!
Apologies for the shitty modding, but that should be changing once I sort out the replacements!

We have the necessary number of players offering to replace into the slots that need replacements, it's just a matter of me doing my number/fact/policy-checking to confirm which players should be receiving which slots' roles.

Flavor?

Flavor will be placed here if mastina has the capacity to give it. No promises!

Votecount 2-22 (62) Simple

Theta Alpine

- 5 (hebichan, zMuffinMan, Nosferatu,

projectmatt

, ArcAngel9)

MathBlade - 2 (

NicoRobin

,

RadiantCowbells

)

projectmatt

- 2 (MathBlade, Gamma Emerald)
Keychain - 1 (HeWhoSwims)
NicoRobin - 1 (Theta Alpine)
Gamma Emerald - 1 (Keychain)
hebichan - 1 (Ankamius)
zMuffinMan - 1 (Creature)

Not Voting - 1 (

Vecna

)

Mod Notes

• mastina, the moderator, is V/LA over weekends.
  
• Seeking a Keychain replacement.
  
• Seeking a RadiantCowbells replacement.
  
• projectmatt is V/LA for a few days.
  
• NicoRobin failed to produce content in the time allotted, and will be replaced.
  
• mastina will generate a more advanced votecount if she has the capacity to give it. No promises!

<<< Oath replaces Keychain effective immediately.
Titus replaces RadiantCowbells effective immediately. >>>

this is like obvtown status

does this make it more obvious

[Ankamius]

read between the lines

[Ankamius]

that's pretty close to what the game looked like when Oath claimed and tried to get themselves lynched

is that enough to give it away yet

[Ankamius]

I'm going to step back and let town connect the dots together

bye

[Ankamius]

congratulations, you figured it out

it's in a lower scope than how I'm seeing it but that's close enough

[Ankamius]

think about it hard enough and it will come to you

[Ankamius]

No, you're just an awful.

You literally quotes a VC and Oath replacing in, and just assumed people would be like 'ah, yes, Oath is probably town' despite

Oath having ZERO equity in the gamestate at that point

.

lol

[Ankamius]

here's one last hint for you: mathblade is town

[Ankamius]

plug in the townreads I indicated

think about what that indicates

and what Oath replacing in right afterwards indicates

and what everyone's response to Oath's claim indicates

and what everyone's continued response to that slot indicates

[Ankamius]

oooooooooooOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooo

[Ankamius]

ok scum

[Ankamius]

what does keychain have to do with anything

[Ankamius]

no

two of the three top wagons are confirmed town
the rest of the town is dispersed across a bunch of different vanity wagons

what need do scum have to shake things up with a scum suicide play

[Ankamius]

I independently think mathblade is town but ehhhhhhhhhhhhh

even if he's scum, that doesn't really disprove anything since like 90% of the pressure on him was from radiantcowbells who got force replaced at the same time

[Ankamius]

aka who is the vig

[Ankamius]

I'm not entirely married to that solve

it's more a "this is the most likely scenario" thing

Brian is scum though

[Ankamius]

Reciting your claim

[Ankamius]

I'm probably wrong about Titus + Brian being partners

But this snap defense of Brian by Vecna is hilarious.

[Ankamius]

CHOO CHOO

BRIAN WAGON AHOY

CHOO CHOO

[Ankamius]

Consider it tomorrow, Oath. We will have nightkill flips to consider too.

Right now it's time to flip scum-Brian.

[Ankamius]

I see

Independently of alignments, I'm sorry if I caused the game to be unfun for you

[Ankamius]

it's ok I don't think you are scum

[Ankamius]

but if you are scum I'm never going to trust you again in a game

[Ankamius]

Hi Lady

ISO me for a good chunk of the reasons you are being wagoned and let me know if you have questions

[Ankamius]

this gamestate is a train wreck

[Ankamius]

Tor hi

This gamestate is a train wreck

[Ankamius]

Oath where are your thoughts at right now

[Ankamius]

The gamestate is... complex.

I'll give you a summary soonish

[Ankamius]

Tor hi

This gamestate is a train wreck

why are you voting brian and what's your lynchpool?

okay

Almost50 is flipped Jailkeeper, he could add people to his jailkeeper PT
Luna Nova was a vanilla neighborizer

Hebichan is a claimed PT Checker, basically just checks to see if the target has a PT or not (personal ones like the one I always have don't count, we already checked). HeWhoSwims and Vecna are claimed 'clears' (no PT)
zMuffinMan is a claimed 2-shot Seer who has innocent results on the late Theta Alpine (I think?) and Vecna
Mathblade, Gamma Emerald, and Brian Skies-slot started in a neighborhood that has a combined action of either recruiting another member or killing someone. They recruited Creature Night 1 and killed Theta Alpine Night 2.
Oath is a claimed third party that... idk, the role makes my head hurt. The claim is very early in her ISO so it shouldn't be hard to find.
Titus is some kind of tracker
There's an unclaimed vig (that Titus apparently knows the identity of)

There's a bunch of claimed VTs but I don't remember all of them offhand

[Ankamius]

BTW I'd like to point out

Brian Skies is the fourth person to replace out of his slot

[Ankamius]

Scum
MathBlade
Creature
Titus
Nos

Possibly one of Brian/You (ankamius)

Brian Skies + Mathblade + Creature doesn't make any sense

[Ankamius]

I'd normally agree with you Tora, but there's a lot of evidence that suggests that it's a legitimate claim.

Plus... well, I argued with Brian for like 3 pages on why it's legit even without all of the outside evidence, just by how it was played out and when.

[Ankamius]

that would make even less sense

[Ankamius]

because why would a scumteam with two members in a neighborhood with one town add a third scummate night one instead of getting right to killing

[Ankamius]

Why are we lynching Brian when there's muffin and Titus and OATH WHO ISNT TOWN AND TRIED TO DRAIN HEBI

For real

Thoughts on having a rolestopper claim because if there isn't one I want Oath even deader

are you town or are you just wanting town to lose

[Ankamius]

Zzzzzzzz

[Ankamius]

Will everyone stop clamoring for Oath lynch if I town case her

[Ankamius]

Oath did you ever go into why you drained hebichan?

[Ankamius]

Can you quote it for me please?

[Ankamius]

Okay here's an Oath town case

1. No sane scum wants to derail a gamestate that has multiple town competing for the chopping block, which is exactly what Oath would've had to do for the claim to be scum.
2. Scum don't, on top of that, try to derail multiple town wagons onto a scum, themselves
3. After failing to get themselves lynched, scum don't completely stop trying to get themselves lynched while also claiming an action that is going to get heavily scrutinized
4. Upon that action failing, scum would claim a target that is protown for them to target instead of claiming the most suspicious slot to target.

This is such a dumb scum play on so many levels. Now what happens if you look at it from a protown perspective?

1. Town 3p replaced in and saw that their role was going to cause confusion to the town while it was alive, so they tried to get it lynched in order to keep the role from becoming a distraction and potentially confscummed falsely later.
2. Town are less afraid to claim commonly thought of as dumb targets because they are less concerned with looking town than scum are.
3. There are actually strong protown reasons to suggest that the drain on hebichan isn't a bad idea (it saves the action usage if the slot dies for one)

Which makes more sense

[Ankamius]

Why are we lynching Brian when there's muffin and Titus and OATH WHO ISNT TOWN AND TRIED TO DRAIN HEBI

For real

Thoughts on having a rolestopper claim because if there isn't one I want Oath even deader

Like this case is nonsense

The action failed

why claim the action on hebi if it failed

[Ankamius]

If it failed, it was 99% a scum action that caused it

[Ankamius]

(plus its almost always better to not get into that situation in the first place rather than rely on arguments like that)

[Ankamius]

Not doing a scummy thing is generally better than going for 'too scummy to be scum'

And the role fishing thing is nonsense

[Ankamius]

here you go tora

Okay here's an Oath town case

1. No sane scum wants to derail a gamestate that has multiple town competing for the chopping block, which is exactly what Oath would've had to do for the claim to be scum.
2. Scum don't, on top of that, try to derail multiple town wagons onto a scum, themselves
3. After failing to get themselves lynched, scum don't completely stop trying to get themselves lynched while also claiming an action that is going to get heavily scrutinized
4. Upon that action failing, scum would claim a target that is protown for them to target instead of claiming the most suspicious slot to target.

This is such a dumb scum play on so many levels. Now what happens if you look at it from a protown perspective?

1. Town 3p replaced in and saw that their role was going to cause confusion to the town while it was alive, so they tried to get it lynched in order to keep the role from becoming a distraction and potentially confscummed falsely later.
2. Town are less afraid to claim commonly thought of as dumb targets because they are less concerned with looking town than scum are.
3. There are actually strong protown reasons to suggest that the drain on hebichan isn't a bad idea (it saves the action usage if the slot dies for one)

Which makes more sense

[Ankamius]

idfk

why do we do anything this game

[Ankamius]

I feel like I'm strapped onto train tracks and I see a train in the distance coming to run me over

Except it is a mile away and it's moving at like one foot an hour

[Ankamius]

I kinda want to just say fuck it and lynch mathblade just so we don't have to deal with that tomorrow

But it won't achieve anything towards fixing the gamestate and its probably going to result in a town flip

I want to lynch Oath just so people can stop pushing that as a slot that might flip scum, but that seems like the fastest way to just lose outright

Titus I'm the most comfortable about, yet there's no concentrated push there and I kind of want to keep her alive today since she's effectively leashed, we can deal with her tomorrow if we have to

The Brian wagon somehow managed to feel like it grew way too easily to be on a scum lynch yet also the momentum died so fast that it's hard to believe it was on a town slot

That and half the slots don't actually care at all what's going on anymore because this is just a stalemate that nobody really wants to solve

This gamestate is basically impossible

[Ankamius]

Rolestopper of some kind I would guess

[Ankamius]

tonight will be an information goldmine I think

[Ankamius]

how many slots this game AREN'T hiding behind a mathblade scumread or an oath scumread

[Ankamius]

I guess

[Ankamius]

It's not exactly hard with all the primary consensus scumreads flipping town Vecna

It's also not hard to scumhunt since you can find 3p

[Ankamius]

PT cop and seer

[Ankamius]

I just don't really care anymore vecna

[Ankamius]

I think it doesn't really matter anymore anyways since this will probably end up doing more harm than not after tonight.

I don't actually have a PR at all, I went along with the speculation about it to try to draw a nightkill since the "kill because lolank" effect doesn't seem to exist anymore. I am human though

[Ankamius]

I really doubt muffin would claim something that obvscums him immediately

Same issue as with Oath, does scum really claim that shit

[Ankamius]

It's even dumber if he's some kind of survivor

[Ankamius]

Why is it hard to believe both are in the game

[Ankamius]

Like the reason I don't put much stock in Vecna being double cleared despite believing both claims are probably true is because of how the setup is set up

It's probable that there is a traitor via Hebi

It's possible that there is a mafia-aligned via Muffin and can be implied via Oath

Why can't we have those two put together, it's a mindfuck I can see mastina pulling

[Ankamius]

The neighborhood lynches at night Tora

Look at the kill flavors