Gameshow Mafia (Reroll): Game Over

[chennisden]

NF do you want to know why i and RC rando pushed you at daystart

[chennisden]

everything i said mechanically was completely true and i hard pushed it because i trusted town to throw it. titus coalition 2 frustrated me so much i started genuinely pushing against it, until i remember this is good for me

[chennisden]

oh btw i take the blame for the 8ball lol

[chennisden]

You said he should be dead but he had protect but you did well with the call. We didn’t lose because of you. TD shouldn’t have hammered before Overkill11 had a chance to post. Why tf didn’t you guys wait? And as for Ok:

dont blame td just because he is here to vlame

[chennisden]

so did dead all know i was scum by the end?

yes basically

[chennisden]

only after mariar submitted

[chennisden]

apparently fuscosco spoilered it anyway

Not spoilered. Just gave too many hints where if town cared they could find scum.

Fortunately it didnt go that way

[chennisden]

i mean, just by the nature of the fact that I wasn't trying to seem like town to anyone who wasn't alive in the game.

yeah that was why

[chennisden]

deadchat was dead there was no consensus

[chennisden]

and i wasnt gonna ask. so

[chennisden]

np

i would say im decent. esp considering i went to the trouble of spewing rc town

but man. i got carried

[chennisden]

Pls no. My scumbud has an emergency.

[chennisden]

it wouldve been turned over to all of dead if they cared no matter what

ur allowed to just prepare beforehand

[chennisden]

exactly what dann said.

[chennisden]

rc you might not know this but you have played in more games with me than anyone.

[chennisden]

lol

[chennisden]

idk

its too hard to lose as town

ive played terribly so many times and we still won.

[chennisden]

what if i play one game as notachennisdenalt and win. then i am mafia god

if i spec then itll be even easier

[chennisden]

skygazer might get me mislynched though

[chennisden]

Choosing between Chemist or Creature was a short term loss but long term lined up lots of needed mislynches

[chennisden]

Let them have their own gameshow of powers

agreed

[chennisden]

idk it shouldve been obvious that at worst this is literally just vanilla mountanious which aint scumsided

[chennisden]

The strongest town probably, 1of4 was never used wahh

pick 1/4 first duh.

[chennisden]

bef did u forget who scum was.

[chennisden]

deeeep

[chennisden]

idk people errantly locktowned me, until it literally became impossible to call me town.

[chennisden]

I Claim Cop. Let's NL until I get a guilty.

I am a Very Interesting Gunner, VIG for short,

[chennisden]

lol

[chennisden]

That was BnL but yeah that was completely not a mechanical error.

[chennisden]

Coalition is completely overpowered.

We were not gonna gamble on arena. Also gave RC credit he used to win. Town knew ONE OF them were scum. Win the 1v1? Creature dies next day.

Vanilla mountanious is NOT scum sided 4 scum of 17 players. There are papers on arxiv which prove that mountanious assuming lynches and nightkill every night is fair when around sqrt n of all players are scum. You guys just expect town to fail whenever possible which isn't really true and besides shouldn't be compensated for.

[chennisden]

This is what the town does.

"oh chemist is town

time to kill creature!"

how is that arena ever a misplay?

[chennisden]

"I don't think there was anything wrong keeping the IC alive" is something I strongly disagree with. I've seen town get handed so many free wins based off of mechanics rather than play and I hate it

IMO aa soonas the IC is outted we need a way to kill them.

[chennisden]

Coalition gives a SHIT TON of info.

[chennisden]

Chennis, because there was nothing saying that they couldn't both be scum. And even after Creature flips scum, the math still dictates that Chemist has to die.

And if you want to argue that Dance proved it, which it didn't because scum should usually pair scum together in my opinion, then the misplay was leaving two Dance partners as Veto leftovers.

We look completely scummy if we push Chemist AFTER Creature THEN he flips town.

[chennisden]

Dance was supposed to give us late game credit.

[chennisden]

There are papers on arxiv which prove that mountanious assuming lynches and nightkill every night is fair when around sqrt n of all players are scum.

In theory (EV wise), yes; in practice, townsided I think.

Yup, Town > EV usually. So no way its scumsided

[chennisden]

Nah I think towns are really strong

We have Opens where the gamestate is something scum always shouldve won and town ends up winning. From a replace or smth.

[chennisden]

Honestly no clue Auro

[chennisden]

BOON!

[chennisden]

tbh i think fusco forced us to bus hjm in the end

[chennisden]

anyway

the idea shouldnt be that the powers are, well, more powerful than lynch. just make them the sameish power and you're fine.

[chennisden]

in particular keep out the stuff without drawbacks please.

like coalition

[chennisden]

creature hasnt been a free read for a while and when he rolls scum people get stomped because people still think he is.

in mini 2077 we wouldve stomped if it hadnt been for our best friend RAS

[chennisden]

ankamius!!

[chennisden]

there were no consensus TRs except like

NF and Sky later

the third consensus was, well, scum so.

[chennisden]

gg ank

[chennisden]

sorry fir rolling scum so many times

[chennisden]

sky was an obv NK and something we werent gonna try to get.

it was to the point where in the scum PT i posted a sky NK before EoD

[chennisden]

i think that wouldve won

and id like to say i wouldnt oppose titus coalbecause lol it helped me so much but i geniunely fought it

[chennisden]

we also lose a night WHEN (not if) it backfires and creature dies

[chennisden]

13:4 is veeeeery close to 50 percent. its over EV wise.

the recursion is UGLY

[chennisden]

Towns really shouldn't be relying on mechanics to win the game when there is any possibility of scum having someone who can competently manipulate setups like this, it's almost always better to use mechanics to supplement day play when you have the ability to and I've seen scum win through mechanical play far more often than town unless the setup itself is hilariously broken in a way where scum just can't deal with it at all.

that's the primary example that I think town would've been far better off this game, I really think the coalition -> veto -> coalition play that ended up happening was a horrific mess that basically threw away town's chance of correcting their reads.

but the setup is hilariously broken

[chennisden]

heres a question

whens the last time anyone complained about a setup being scumsided

[chennisden]

double 1 of 4 is really just. necessary.

[chennisden]

assuming random play and random lynches. INCLUDING THE IC. and excluding shitty powers and assuming no repick (so mountanious)

the EV is literally what 89%?

this isnt random play or random lynching. there also is an IC. so

[chennisden]

(empirically via test cases, not calculated)

[chennisden]

13:4 is veeeeery close to 50 percent. its over EV wise.

the recursion is UGLY

I'm very confused how you got this? I have a simulator that puts it at like...around 20%. The EV Project doesn't list games that big, but the mountainous setups it does list also have EVs that are wildly lower than what you're getting.

theres an arxiv paper ill link if i find

[chennisden]

found it

google

mafia game expected value

should be by erlin yao.

[chennisden]

alright so lets try this

i actually think the ev isnt hard to find.

lets just pretend that the game keeps going after mafia all dies. this is okay because we define winning as:

when theres 3 people and the last guy gets lynched. there are TWO PEOPLE left. if BOTH OF THEM ARE TOWN, TOWN WINS

[chennisden]

ill talk about this tmrw need to sleep.

[chennisden]

I was prepared to fight it out, but I stopped caring and replaced

[chennisden]

gg moon! you played very well, we just got people to stop listening to you.

[chennisden]

pensive

[chennisden]

It was

[chennisden]

Though I disagree with the methods RC used. He has a point.g

[chennisden]

Ok

But Titus plays wrong in the same way consistently game after game

If your play is unpredictably bad, it's hard to suggest change

When you make the same mistakes for 6 years it's a lot easier

Fair

Idk what to really suggest though, she plays the way she does because of how her brain is wired

No. Just no.

[chennisden]

I mean is that technically true of everyone? Yes.

But we're capable of changing our playstyles neurotypical or not and I don't appreciate it being used as a crutch or other people using it as a crutch to justify certain plays.

[chennisden]

Its good.

No it's not that easy especially when it's been ingrained. I just do think that if all your townreads disagree with you, you're probably wrong. Esp with mechanical stuff.

[chennisden]

Titus you did fine lategame.

[chennisden]

Everything I said mechanics wise was completely honest and completely correct

[chennisden]

Dance is free info right when we need it.

The reason it got you nothing was because scum was in control during Dance. We controlled your progressions, the lynch, whatever

[chennisden]

We got zero useable info from dance and lost Oka.

No, you couldve got info. We just didnt let you.

[chennisden]

And seeing who doesnt let you get info is info anyways so.

[chennisden]

taly im not scum, thats mean

[chennisden]

yay im situationally useful

same

[chennisden]

guys roast my gameplay here

I can't believe you played, smh

[chennisden]

It was miserable fighting these coalitions. Even though I was scum I was so mad

[chennisden]

and i wasnt even townlol

[chennisden]

Based on 7970 Taly isnt engaging his scumreads. So he is scum.

Vote: Taly

[chennisden]

Why in Town's name are we protecting RC over NF and chenn?

-TL

Something I think is understated

I hard pocketed TL until they had no choice but to SR me. I think it kept me alive for long enough

[chennisden]

Meh I didnt pocket NF on purpose really

Just kept doing it when it worked

I wanted to pocket TD because "no way scum pockets lynchbait"

it was lynchbait but not lynchbait enough where i could pocket them to keep me alive until mechanically impossible

[chennisden]

i think playing scum, its ok if everyone knows you're scum. if you pocket the right people you dont die anyways

[chennisden]

The biggest thing you couldve reasonably done to win was request for Ok to be replaced.

[chennisden]

Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading

[chennisden]

hi my middle name is caughtscum

[chennisden]

scum epeens

[chennisden]

lol

[chennisden]

no tos plez

[chennisden]

Are you saying that problem is equivalent to something like, "Pick two random from 11+4 and find the probability of both being town"? That would be wrong. I haven't seen any easy reduction yet.

Not quite as scum always kills town

But scum always kills the highest ranked players so just rank them

[chennisden]

Lynch

- Okay

1of4

- Should be disabled if there's only one scum left

8-ball

- Okay, but maybe make it easier for town to hit the 8ball?

Arena

- Okay

Call a Friend

- Can only call one player and if that player doesn't give anything no message will be displayed

Coalition

- Allow scum to nightkill

Dance

- After dance, undo dance pairs and allow scum to kill

Popcorn

- Okay

Protect

- Okay I guess

Quiz

- Have no idea tbh

Rank

- Okay

Reveal

- Okay

Treestump

- Okay

Vengeful

- Should allow scum to nightkill if town is the one to venge

Veto

- idk

Also thought about a mafia 1-shot repicker

Lol Quiz is fine. Although you could catch scum at the cost of 5 towns

[chennisden]

3 towns

Wait Quiz is lowkey OP and Ive been telling you that all along. Its a weaker Reveal and Protect put together. You should always guess town

[chennisden]

It drags out deepwolves or confirms leaders as town

Like, that is lowkey OP if we quizzed NF.

[chennisden]

I shut up about it because it was that good for town.

[chennisden]

Oh wait scum chooses.

Still.

[chennisden]

Your intentions are defined by how things went because they never would've gone well

[chennisden]

go iso bnl

i think we released maf pt too

[chennisden]

i thought we already all agreed to release it

[chennisden]

i tried saying "releasio" in the pt

and it didnt work

[chennisden]

releasio worked ! !

[chennisden]

Dudee

I had to complain about this setup somewhere

[chennisden]

Lol

[chennisden]

scum should be given x-number of sabotages or something for agency purposes

like 5+ sabotages, they can submit as many as they want and if they guess what power is selected by town tomorrow it becomes a super shitty and disastrous version of the power

so none of the mechanical power->power->power bs

I so agree with you Oka

If town telegraphs what they're gonna do well screw town

[chennisden]

Btw it maybe should be a private vote by PM and scum collectively have X votes ig