Gameshow Mafia (Reroll): Game Over

[chennisden]

sky was an obv NK and something we werent gonna try to get.

it was to the point where in the scum PT i posted a sky NK before EoD

[Ankamius]

there were no consensus TRs except like

NF and Sky later

the third consensus was, well, scum so.

the problem is

at that point in the game, a lot of the general reads were that the players outside of the coalition were the predominant scumreads

my entire thought process was that since we know we're wrong, we need to start figuring out which of these scumreads are actually town so we can start figuring out WHICH townreads are wrong

it's a lot easier to fix reads when you start flipping people who aren't the alignment you thought they were rather than flipping people who were correct reads

[chennisden]

i think that wouldve won

and id like to say i wouldnt oppose titus coalbecause lol it helped me so much but i geniunely fought it

[callforjudgement]

This is what the town does.

"oh chemist is town

time to kill creature!"

how is that arena ever a misplay?

You gain a Night in that scenario. (And weren't you complaining about the lack of scum-directed kills?)

Re: coalition discussion, I have a suspicion that the first coalition may actually have been negative utility the way it played out. Coalitions that large give very little information (e.g. Titus's plan of "let's split the playerlist so that there's 2 scum in 1 half and 1 scum in the other half" gave no useful information all game, but even a more focused plan where the second coalition was almost the same as the first wouldn't have helped much). However, town tried to use the information for much more than it was actually worth, something that probably hurt town more than the actual information from the coalition helped.

[callforjudgement]

FWIW, although I never had a hard scumread on RC, one of the main things making me suspicious of RC's alignment was that he wasn't fighting Titus's plan hard enough.

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm irritated I never got to mislynch ankamius and Eddie cane

I was looking forward to those



Yes, the first coalition was actively anti-town because we abused it to make it so. That's good scum play. Even when it cornered creature deepwolf we still had a deeper wolf etc

[RadiantCowbells]

Btw

I chose to reveal isolate and kill Titus as opposed to pocketing her and making her lose lylo for town because I didn't really want to make her even more of the reason that town lost.

[Something_Smart]

Vanilla mountanious is NOT scum sided 4 scum of 17 players. There are papers on arxiv which prove that mountanious assuming lynches and nightkill every night is fair when around sqrt n of all players are scum. You guys just expect town to fail whenever possible which isn't really true and besides shouldn't be compensated for.

The thing is, this ignores the fact that not all players are equal. When scum can kill off the strongest townies N1-2-3, the remaining town players are by definition below average, even if the town was of average strength to start.

Also, I'd be really surprised if the EV for 13:4 mountainous was above, like, 40%. You can add significant power to 40% and have it still be balanced.

[RadiantCowbells]

I wasn't saying what I was saying to her because I was mad or because I wanted to manipulate her. Someone really needs to get it through to her.

[Ankamius]

Towns really shouldn't be relying on mechanics to win the game when there is any possibility of scum having someone who can competently manipulate setups like this, it's almost always better to use mechanics to supplement day play when you have the ability to and I've seen scum win through mechanical play far more often than town unless the setup itself is hilariously broken in a way where scum just can't deal with it at all.

that's the primary example that I think town would've been far better off this game, I really think the coalition -> veto -> coalition play that ended up happening was a horrific mess that basically threw away town's chance of correcting their reads.

[RadiantCowbells]

The thing is, this ignores the fact that not all players are equal. When scum can kill off the strongest townies N1-2-3, the remaining town players are by definition below average, even if the town was of average strength to start.

But we couldn't in this game

We had to burn 2 nightkills on clears and we had 2 more nightkills so I needed to be the third towniest player to win while dodging double coalition and 1 of 4 cornering me

It took a very precisely laid out path to endgame

[chennisden]

we also lose a night WHEN (not if) it backfires and creature dies

[RadiantCowbells]

I mean. I was technically the second towniest player

I don't think anyone lynches NF over me but I stayed the towniest non NF unconfirmed player for almost all of the game

[chennisden]

13:4 is veeeeery close to 50 percent. its over EV wise.

the recursion is UGLY

[chennisden]

Towns really shouldn't be relying on mechanics to win the game when there is any possibility of scum having someone who can competently manipulate setups like this, it's almost always better to use mechanics to supplement day play when you have the ability to and I've seen scum win through mechanical play far more often than town unless the setup itself is hilariously broken in a way where scum just can't deal with it at all.

that's the primary example that I think town would've been far better off this game, I really think the coalition -> veto -> coalition play that ended up happening was a horrific mess that basically threw away town's chance of correcting their reads.

but the setup is hilariously broken

[RadiantCowbells]

Just remember that in this game

Only two nightkills sliced off of the top of the town pile

12 mechanics were used to remove people from the bottom of the town pile and the 13th/14th got cleared.

That's how you should look at balance btw. Look at mechanics that remove or clear townread players versus scumread ones.

[chennisden]

heres a question

whens the last time anyone complained about a setup being scumsided

[chennisden]

double 1 of 4 is really just. necessary.

[chennisden]

assuming random play and random lynches. INCLUDING THE IC. and excluding shitty powers and assuming no repick (so mountanious)

the EV is literally what 89%?

this isnt random play or random lynching. there also is an IC. so

[Ether]

13:4 is veeeeery close to 50 percent. its over EV wise.

the recursion is UGLY

I'm very confused how you got this? I have a simulator that puts it at like...around 20%. The EV Project doesn't list games that big, but the mountainous setups it does list also have EVs that are wildly lower than what you're getting.

[chennisden]

(empirically via test cases, not calculated)

[Something_Smart]

The thing is, this ignores the fact that not all players are equal. When scum can kill off the strongest townies N1-2-3, the remaining town players are by definition below average, even if the town was of average strength to start.

But we couldn't in this game

We had to burn 2 nightkills on clears and we had 2 more nightkills so I needed to be the third towniest player to win while dodging double coalition and 1 of 4 cornering me

It took a very precisely laid out path to endgame

No I know, I'm just telling chennis why I think the powers should be better on average than Lynch.

Also my quick simulation, assuming random lynches, puts town's EV for 13:4 mountainous at 15%, so I'm curious what assumptions those papers are making to conclude that it's balanced.

[chennisden]

13:4 is veeeeery close to 50 percent. its over EV wise.

the recursion is UGLY

I'm very confused how you got this? I have a simulator that puts it at like...around 20%. The EV Project doesn't list games that big, but the mountainous setups it does list also have EVs that are wildly lower than what you're getting.

theres an arxiv paper ill link if i find

[RadiantCowbells]

I can't easily calculate EV for this game because it's really hard to calculate

But I really really don't think scum wins this a lot

If anyone disagrees they're welcome to do a guilty child rerun of the game

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I don't disagree with you RC. Veto and Reveal/Rank combo were the killers in my eyes.

How do you think the setup can be improved to be more balanced? That's what the postgame discussion should focus on, rather than pointing fingers and feeding egos.