Situation Room [Game Over!]

[Bingle]

The breaking strategy oka got from me is probably breaking, yes. It’s also incredibly unfun and I’d rather not use it. I also don’t townread oka for suggesting it because I am in the game and the strategy was not hard to find.

I would like to do two slight optimizations: 1 the consensus towniest player is the hammerer. 2 players who are likely to be eliminated be off wagon.

[Bingle]

hmm but bingle who cares if u are in this game, i was citing the great jingle who has absolutely no relation to this... bingle creature

he brings the cool and the muscle

I also have a very powerful internal clock.

[Bingle]

Strong tr on Dan floor based mostly on an assumption that may not be true, btw.

[Bingle]

dan fl oor

Maybe the real betrayal was the friends we made along the way.

[Bingle]

The lengthy deliberation about optimal strategies and going back and forth between various angles. Scum can setupspec for sure but it's harder to fake the enthusiasm Oka was showing when he was jotting down all of his thoughts on the setup

What do you think?

Would town be excited to play “Let’s sheep a townread for a literal 2 months”?

[Bingle]

Im interested in ur bingle take yuri

not explaining yet

want the bingle himself to turn up

I mean... I've been checking in every so often.

Bingles going to be like why and i want to speed up this interaction u know

Nah, don't really care. Yuri is probably town rn.

[Bingle]

bingle town for not tryharding

Ah shit, I've been caught for the wrong reasons.

[Bingle]

VOTE: STD

[Bingle]

Don't ask people to trust you in a game of mafia.

FakeGod is my favorite person who asked me to make this account. Please trust me on this.

Also pockety towards Bingle,

You might want to look at my signature.

[Bingle]

Would Not Lim:

Yuri, Cupcake, Dann, Solo

Hasn't Summoned Guy Fieri Yet:

OkaPoka

Would Lim:

STD, Hypothermia

[Bingle]

something more like this

You had the worst Gamma vote and I wanted to see what happened if I presented an alternative to that wagon with no reasoning attached.

I chose you because it felt like you were actively avoiding the meat of the hypo/gamma interactions to put an RVS vote down, even though there was a bunch of AI shit going on you could interact with.

FG is right that it is objectively best from the standpoint of the individual to wagon park all day, but that stifles scumhunting and is therefore bad for town.

[Bingle]

i actually like hypothermia's vote on gamma. gamma's vote against the gimmick feels a little forced

did you disagree/not like this

I didn't like that it came in a separate post to the vote. I also didn't like you ignoring both GL's analysis and the Hypo/Dann back and forth about that.

I also don't think that GE is liable to fake frustration as scum when his frustration is an inherently NAI characteristic and I'm pretty sure he knows that, so...

[Bingle]

Hasn't Summoned Guy Fieri Yet:

OkaPoka

WHAT?

This is completely unrelated to the game:

Oka quoted a bunch of smashmouth in TM as a crumb thing and I'm poking fun about that. (The lead singer for smashmouth looks just like Guy Fierri.) Mostly because there are people tr-ing him for being happy and he has never not done that ime.

[Bingle]

Don’t ask what vibing means

Is that that thing with the trombone, a bowl of jello and three and a a half yards of furniture grade mahogany?

[Bingle]

Does this mean i get venged first

Probably not. Also your plan sucks.

[Bingle]

The biggest danger we face is the potential for scum to control multiple hoods and wreck us out of no where. Putting a bunch of LHF into a hood means we probably eliminate mostly from that hood and the number of people in the hood goes down quickly, resulting in a hood that is liable to be easily turned into a scum majority.

Furthermore, separating out all of the scummy people into one group makes it really hard for not scummy people to interact with and read them, so your utr vig is largely blindshooting. It also doesn’t address that your utr pool being infiltrated is extra dangerous given they are liable to be a point of contact with another thread with minimal oversight on what they say.

You are correct that we don’t want to have a sixth hood.

[Bingle]

(For the record, I’m probably not going to try to force an optimal neighborhood strat because herding votes is bad at the best of times, but we should probably let D1 play out mostly normally, as normal play will likely generate the most trustworthy reads. I’ll explain D2 onwards when we’re close enough to hammer for it to matter.)

[Bingle]

General idea is that we have one utr group that controls the lims and all other hoods should not kill unless one hood breaks loose in which case every hood has permission to lay waste to the rebel group. The utr group is hopefully also in other hoods to communicate stuff. Also potentially let neighborhoods kill within

The risk isn’t them breaking the plan prematurely. The risk is them making it to autowin. Also, your utr group is playing a game of telephone with potentially compromised links who are outright manipulating data.

Your plan is precisely the kind of plan I’d want town to use as scum because it lets me focus on manipulating a comparatively small batch of players.

[Bingle]

That’s better

VOTE: bingle

maybe bingle really is scum

actually

VOTE: GL

Im interested in ur bingle take yuri

not explaining yet

want the bingle himself to turn up

This sequence.

[Bingle]

the mechanical talk will continue until people understand the very existence of a 6th neighborhood is bad

THE BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES!

The plan is roughly this:

We play D1 like a normal game of mafia, because the familiarity of a normal game of mafia will generate the best reads. When we get close to EoD (E-2ish) we have all of the scummiest people on wagon unvote and all of the towniest people off wagon pile on to hammer. D2 we eliminate off wagon with slightly less than half overlap, still favoring towny names on wagon. D3 we decide if we want to put in the effort to spiderweb communications. Rinse and repeat. If somehow there is a 6th pool likely on D5 (or a lack of overlap viable for Pool 5) we decide those names we want to purge in the first round of shooting before we hammer D5.

Alternative plans:

The one you mistakenly tried to copy, in which one person is the solo voter for 5 days. A variant on that in which one person is the solo voter for 5 days and then self votes. I'm not interested in pursuing either of those strategies due to both a lack of fun and it taking 60 days.

[Bingle]

legitimately there is one world where a 6th neighborhood is passable which is we all agree to a list that we will follow to eliminate straight down from

This is the worst possible world, I think.

6th neighborhood should either be purged before it can shoot or literally everyone.

[Bingle]

What do you think about what happened when you presented an alternative to the Gamma wagon with no reasoning attached?

I think that STD reacted poorly, Dann had a concerning vote, and you had a pretty townish response in trying to suss out my motivations, particularly when I ignored your interrogation and you didn't let it drop or immediately use it as a method of shading/discrediting me.

[Bingle]

I don't really have paranoia wrt hypo here. I'm unsure if this is a very good sign, or a moderately bad one.

[Bingle]

@bingle what's your read on dann?

I'm cautiously treating him as town but there have been pings. I would be okay with him being on wagon D1 regardless.

[Bingle]

Granting myself unlimited word count for read lists

Town:

Gamma
UNOwen
Bell
Qoobee
Oka
Save Dragons

Town?:

Yuri
Dusa
Dannflor
Guiltylion
Cupcake Butterfly

Scum?:

FakeGod
Bingle

Scum:

DGB
Hypothermia
Lavar

Garbage tier list, tbh.

[Bingle]

BTW, Yuri:

bingle, this sounds a lot like bullshit

how is one hood getting turned into scum maj likely to lead to scum controlling multiple hoods

like, scum gaining control of one hood is almost functionally equivalent to scum getting a NK but if presumably the plan on the hoods is going to be to have multiple channels of communication redundancy around so that one or two people don't have a monopoly on inter-hood communications, and if a scum-controlled hood started using their kill on strongly TR players it wouldn't be hard to work out which is was and to vig the shit out of that hood with the other ones

however, also, mechanics is fucking boring and it's beyond depressing that despite like a 2 day break off it's still being discussed

Subject: [SETUP] Situation Room

Normally I'd agree with you, but I think the endgame parity is a strong scumsiding factor.

Basically, if Neighborhood 1 is 3 scum and 4 town to begin with and Neighborhood 2 is 4 scum and 4 town and neighborhood 3 is 2 scum and 4 town, Scum can manipulate Neighborhood 1 into killing someone who is town in Neighborhoods 2 and three. Scum now have the majority in Neighborhood 2, and can kill someone who is town in Neighborhoods 1 and 3. Scum now have three sequential kills and can mitigate overlap into other hoods to be able to work to parity faster.

I'm not 100% sure there isn't an opposite balancing mechanic (neighborhoods becoming conftown via the game not ending) but it seems more likely for the scum one to matter, particularly with the incentive town has to distrust any townies who are in multiple hoods. It definitely seems like the kind of setup where limming a scum early could easily snowball into an inevitable town win, but the odds of 5 living scum on D6 aren't unreasonable (13%) and both 4 and 5 large scumteams seem virtually unbeatable in endgame. This is even without considering the venge aspect of the scumteams.

It's a good thing however that my mechanics talk boils down to: we should play this like a game of mafia until the end of day 1, though, because that'll make it easier for you not to get bored.

[Bingle]

like what is that example, what is the refrance

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wor ... Only_Knows

so "conquer" in other word means "court"
Got it.

The main character is a giant dweeb he does not court, he conquers and captures.

Is there any point at all to this?

[Bingle]

Yes, I’m explaining the joke. This means I’m not funny.

I'm fairly certain explaining the joke makes it funnier, just like repeating it. I'm more passive aggressively pointing out that like half of Gamma's contributions to the thread have been "Please explain this reference" and I don't think that makes him readable and would like more AI content from him.

[Bingle]

add solo to TRs with a question mark actually

?

Did you look at his reads list?

[Bingle]

Granting myself unlimited word count for read lists

Town:

Gamma

UNOwen
Bell
Qoobee

Oka

Save Dragons

Town?:

Yuri
Dusa

Dannflor

Guiltylion

Cupcake Butterfly

Scum?:

FakeGod
Bingle

Scum:

DGB
Hypothermia
Lavar

He's also naked voting Dann and Dann had not posted between the publication of that naked vote and the publication of these reads.

[Bingle]

Granting myself unlimited word count for read lists

Town:

Gamma

UNOwen
Bell
Qoobee

Oka

Save Dragons

Town?:

Yuri
Dusa

Dannflor

Guiltylion

Cupcake Butterfly

Scum?:

FakeGod
Bingle

Scum:

DGB
Hypothermia
Lavar

He's also naked voting Dann and Dann had not posted between the publication of that naked vote and the publication of these reads.

okay what's the problem with the boded, but yeah that vote doesn't make sense
still think outside of that he's towny

Having you and Oka as strong town is at best premature. Oka has done little outside of mechplay and even that was largely sheeping me in the setup thread poorly. TR-ing Oka for having fun is bonkers, because that game where Oka put the lyrics to Smashmouth into the thread because he was busy having fun was a scum Oka game. A scum Oka game where a bunch of people (cough*Dann*cough) townread Oka for having fun D1. STD is actually scummy.

Dannflor being where he is is wonky for the reasons I literally just pointed out, and solo choosing to publish this list severely undercut any solving potential his own vote carried. GL has posted 13 times and disappeared for the majority of the active portion of the game.

DGB and Lavar are the textbook definitions of LHF here, (DGB is just off a hiatus and comes across as scummy to anyone who hasn't spent years playing with it which is 95% of this playerlist and Lavar is just a chronic lurker) and Hypo is the scumread he's been most strongly suspecting (at least as far as I can tell through the stilted ass self PR) but is someone he's not pursuing because she's scary.

[Bingle]

bingle is that solo read real?

The read that his readslist is trash? Yes.

If you're asking if I'm confident he's scum, the answer is no, but I want to hear his response.

[Bingle]

I've played in games he's modded
he could have formed an opinion of my personality through that

I wouldn't take anything FG does in a mafia game as a personal attack. He's here to argue and work out the puzzle or manipulate people into being unable to do so. Interpersonal connections are largely incidental. Playing mafia with FG and hanging out in sitechat with FG are night and day comparisons.

[Bingle]

I’m just surprised you would think his vote on me is weird

I don't think his vote on you is weird. I think his publishing a readslist unprompted to cut his vote on you off at the knees is weird.

[Bingle]

there a reason you didn't explain why the TR on me was premature? Everything else got rationalized

Did I not?

Oh. He's been townreading you since long before you started being active and solvey. His reasoning was basically "Gamma has emotions."

[Bingle]

why is it not weird?

Paranoia votes on Dann come around about as frequently as paranoia votes on me, they're not really all that AI. Although... actually now that I think about it it is a little odd that he's fine with voting Dann for paranoia and avoiding pushing a hypo-scumread at the same time.

[Bingle]

You know how you get into a fight with a player and every time you return to thread, that's all you see?

yeah... unfortunately i do

FITE ME, BIRD!

But seriously, I don't want you to take my dismissal of your plan as a "I didn't read this and consider it".

What I am suggesting is this:

Today we are making a hood with 9 people. 1 person will be deaded. That leaves 7 people as not in hoods. Tomorrow we will be making a hood with either 8 or 9 people based on whether we hit scum today. It's not going to be particularly hard to prevent a 6th hood from forming, even if we shoot for a large amount of overlap in the hoods, and especially if we just leash the first vig shots to be anyone in the 6th hood. Your plan is very reliant on accurate reads D1, which I think is a bad approach to take, especially when you add in the difficulty of vote herding. If we can ensure that today's hood is mostly people who are going to remain in the game long term (hence replacing scummy on wagon votes with townread players once the elim is decided) then we have a central hood of ~9 voices and satellite hoods containing the remaining players. (5 town controlled eliminations means this is between 3 and 7 players assuming scum doesn't selfhammer or out themselves qh-ing today.)

I'm actively avoiding talking about how we want to approach future hoods because that will taint the process of scumhunting today, when we have the freedom of playing this like a normal game of mafia and generating mostly normal reads, which everyone in the lobby will be able to do compared to the mechanically inclined people who can set up long term goals.

PEdit: I just came back to my computer, but I wrote this hours ago and am not sure I hit submit. I'm going to hit submit now and if it's a multipost y'all can deal with it.

[Bingle]

i missed a lot is there stuff that's not about mechanics because i don't really care about the mechanics

Weird read list from Solo, GE started putting down good content, I still don't really like yours, generic paranoia wrt Dann, etc. Basically the only mech stuff has been me and oka's back and forth.

[Bingle]

I mean… sure.

Oka’s attempt at solving mechanically originally was full on NAI. I don’t think there’s an intention to manipulate town into an abusable scum route there (although I do think scum could abuse that strategy). I think oka defending his plan and actively seeking out my opinion on it when it was inspired by me in part is plus town, but only very slightly. I think oka playing mediator for gamma/FG is NAI or scummy depending contextually on flips. I actually find myself more likely to be the hood guy in the middle as scum when a fight is T/T because I know it’s not theater and I don’t have paranoia about whether I’m being manipulated. I do think that oka attempting to scumhunt in addition to the mech stuff is strongly town indicative, as it would be very easy here to lean hard into a combination of fluff and mechtalk to generate townreads.

I largely agree that gamma has shown town, although more from the scumhunting he’s done recently than the FG interactions. I think at most the FG interactions imply not S/S, with the sole exception of Gamma trying to restart the initial interrogation when talked down instead of simply dropping the conversation altogether.

I’ve been largely focused on finding fake townreads because faking townreads to manipulate a utr scum into okas hood is the basic counterplay to okas proposed plan and it looked like at least some measure of the population was accepting that that was what would actually happen today.

The question you asked about yourself isn’t the one I think you wanted answered, so I’ll answer both. I’m defaulting to treating you like town because I think you have the strongest reads in the lobby as town. I do currently tr you because you’re giving off the same vibes as when we were talking about aris game in TM, although I do have paranoia that that is different to how you acted in both your team mafia game and aliensitter. Regardless my plan is to give you the space to work and reevaluate if it gets to that point.

I’m interested in what has changed wrt STD and what your take is on Solo. I’m also interested in seeing where your Hypo push leads, but am uninterested in joining you atm.

[Bingle]

Also I don’t think he’s figured out who I am and that makes me think a pocket on me would be substantially lower priority for him than normal

I’m pretty sure you’re neither of the players for whom pocketing is a higher priority for scum me than town me.

I can confirm that I don’t know who you are, but that’s possibly because I haven’t really tried to figure it out. If I had to guess I’d say green Mario based on hypo interactions.

[Bingle]

Eh. If anything I’ve been specifically disinterested in mechtalk.

I could see why you think I’m being less than solvey from the outside, but that’s pretty par for the course for my style of solving. What do you make of my conclusions in my response to dann?

[Bingle]

I don't actually know how my read strength is perceived by bingle

I mean... There's a reason that you were literally the first name that came up when Pine and I started building the team.

You're not always right, but you're right more often than you're wrong in my experience. You're good at expressing your reasoning and I can generally follow along pretty well with your logic. You're also really good at working and communicating as part of a team and can hold your own as scum in a tough position if you have people standing behind you to help.

That was our team criteria, and you were the first person to match it when we talked.

Also, I'm kinda sad now that the discord disappeared. I didn't even realize it had.

[Bingle]

I'm waiting to see where his push on Solo in particular goes

Me too!

[Bingle]

how come DGB gets to be LHF but i'm just scummy

You've said you're low hanging fruit, but my limited experience with you doesn't really enforce that belief. You were fine in Naughts and you were endgame town in Defcon. I do have the experience to know that DGB tends not to be listened to by people who've joined the site since about 2016.

[Bingle]

Dann, your dream better not be a prophecy.

This setup is inherently anti VCA, although the plan of play through most of D1 as a normal game of mafia does mitigate that slightly.

[Bingle]

STD largely has the same people.

I've been poking people without using my vote for a while. Not entirely sure who else is still on the STD wagon.

It's mostly played out though, yeah.

[Bingle]

STD tell me about your Gamma read, specifically wrt the last 10ish pages.

[Bingle]

I'm curious. What's people's Solo read?

Check my ISO. I raised a bunch of points (particularly about the reads list) and he hasn't responded yet.

[Bingle]

Almost50 replaces Solo.

Hm. Are you a scum Monkey?

[Bingle]

Can somebody catch me up? I had the misfortune of losing my landline internet access so I AM using the phone and I suck at it

We're playing a functionally mountainous game for D1 until we decide who we want to lim, at which point I will make a token attempt at herding votes and fail miserably. Titus hasn't realized the setup is literally anti VCA yet, and we're all waiting on tenterhooks for the realization to strike and her infinite sadness to become palpable. ProtoYou posted a bizarre reads list and disappeared off the face of the earth when questioned about it. There's been significantly less than normal dancing around "Maybe Bingle scum" and someone made the unironic argument that my being disengaged was a towntell so I was leaning into that to see if anyone accused me of leaning into that which no one has. Also, there's this weird push on Yuri that you should look into to see if I'm just pocketed there.

[Bingle]

I think I'd better claim though: I am an Ascetic Miller PGO Commuter. Anyone dare to CC this is 100% scum.

I'm an Ascetic Miller PGO Commuter sympathizer. As long as someone in the game is an Ascetic Miller PGO Commuter, I too am an Ascetic Miller PGO Commuter.

[Bingle]

something more like this

You had the worst Gamma vote and I wanted to see what happened if I presented an alternative to that wagon with no reasoning attached.

I chose you because it felt like you were actively avoiding the meat of the hypo/gamma interactions to put an RVS vote down, even though there was a bunch of AI shit going on you could interact with.

FG is right that it is objectively best from the standpoint of the individual to wagon park all day, but that stifles scumhunting and is therefore bad for town.

STD 'case'.

STD largely has the same people.

I've been poking people without using my vote for a while. Not entirely sure who else is still on the STD wagon.

It's mostly played out though, yeah.

The point where I admit that my vote is kinda just sitting there for no reason.

Not sure why anyone else is still pushing that.

[Bingle]

VOTE: Butterfly

I don't think I know a single thing you believe strongly. Why is your ISO so empty?

[Bingle]

I just realized that the Shin Godzilla picture is now the top of this page and am very proud of that.

[Bingle]

Iirc she moonlogics less as scum but it’s not universal?

There's more nuance than this, but generally speaking Titus as scum cares more about whether her reasons are convincing ime.

[Bingle]

You're doing a good job of being scum if you are Bingle.

Pffft. I'm doing a good job of being scum regardless of whether I'm scum.

[Bingle]

@mod

butterfly is due a prod.

Also worth noting, qoobee is vla for literally the rest of D1 and didn’t do much while here and Turin has basically checked out of the game.

[Bingle]

I choose: The gamestate.

Talk at length about what you think the general state of the thread means. If you must have a name to talk about to kick off your reading, Yuri makes sense as a cw to you, but a wall about a single player is really not what we need right now.

[Bingle]

I would murder:

FG
GuiltyLion
CB
Lavar

right now if any of them were L-1.

Is there anyone who is townreading any of these slots?


Seriously, I've done fuckall this game and I'm still the top 50% of content. I'm

only beating the mod by 4 posts

and yet I'm one of the higher content slots.

With that said, CB's "I need help to get into a 40 page game that's been open for a week" doesn't jive with me as coming from town who has played with more than half the list, so my vote remains there atm. I'm townreading everyone who has posted more content than me with the exception of the Solo50 slot, and of those I'm weakest on Dusa. I think STD is probably town. Titus gets a day to get her sealegs and I didn't dislike hypo's input while she was here and DGB seems to be pushing things that make sense.

UNO, what are your thoughts? You're poking but are you actually getting anything from your pokes?

[Bingle]

Once CB flips scum I feel like Dusa should be flipped next

Gamma, this feels... overly confident

@Dannflor: unpack this for me?

[Bingle]

@Bingle: Am I correct in assuming Scum would want to be on every elimination and more so on the earlier ones, so they can influence the earlier NKs more? (If someone doesn't get my talk; nevermind. Bingle can still understand my monkey noises somehow)

Wanting to be on wagon is actually NAI, but yes. It's true of both factions.

[Bingle]

I feel like Dusa may be trying to deflect attention from actual scum with this maneuver

If Dann or whoever needs a "unique" or "new" reason for me to sheep here, this comment especially strikes me as disingenuous bullshit. Townies say who the "actual scum" is when they sincerely believe this. From context we assume it's Cupcake, but the point is this thought process and sentence in particular feels fake and reactive and manufactured

I find myself truly torn between liking this content and hating the way in which it is expressed.

[Bingle]

I think you should change your expectations of me. I've never digressed my level of familiarity or strength in reading the various people I've hinted at playing with. Plus, this alt is almost MEANT for finding a new playstyle and tone for myself, so I'm not thinking about Mafia the same way I did when I played often on my main.

And I don't think meta is usually reliable, and even if I did have a meta rulebook for anyone with high accuracy, it borders on violating site rules in extreme cases.

It doesn't ring as sincere for you or others to place a high expectation of my readability because that makes it easy for town and scum alike to assess my alignment on the ability to read the game, not my behavior.

I neither know nor care who your main is.

The point, as it were, is that this game is extremely content light for a large and anyone who has played with as many people on the PL as you say you have should know that, which makes me doubt the sincerity of your "Oh shit, 40 pages in a week!" post. Trying to couch that as a meta read seems disingenuous at best. I do need to reed the rest of your content though.

[Bingle]

this is purely a reads list and not an evaluation of character

some things have changed since last time I expressed reads on certain people, so I'll type up a more thorough text to go with this later but for now, AMA

Can I have one where it's an evaluation of character?

I think the tree deserves to be higher and would be interested on your impressions of Yuri, tbh. Also I'm assuming the glitched out box is T3.

[Bingle]

Bingle! Vote Gamma! You can do this! You can see the obvious!

I want a response from Dann first and I'm pretty sure I had another thing to answer.

[Bingle]

Specifically, I want Dann to unpack the conclusions he got from 1150, the rest of my questions can wait if he's pressed on time.

[Bingle]

Yeah, I just saw the earlier yuri comment about the "not every vote needs a reason" and with that context it's a lot less gross/performative.

[Bingle]

STD town came as a result of my poking him. His response was to poke back in a way that would easily allow for him to slip into an easily dismissed OMGUS tunnel on me and then he continued poking elsewhere which I think is solidly town minded. I also think his reads list is actively not consensus-y and I don't really see an agenda there.

[Bingle]

That is a very interesting VC, tbh.

[Bingle]

I don't think I want T3 or GL on this, but I'm not truly opposed to their presence. Bell shouldn't be the hammer vote, he should be prior because he's one of the more trustworthy names and there's a risk of Gamma scum selfing here. I'd also be fine with Titus/Uno. I am of course completely happy being on wagon.

Basically, tomorrow we're going to want to vote someone off who wasn't in our 9 from today. Assuming worst case of Gamma town, we get another 9p hood tomorrow with 15 names total. That's a guaranteed overlap of three names, which should be the towniest 3 people from this wagon. If we have someone off wagon who is a never makes XLO read we can up the overlap farther.

Assuming worst case scenario of Gamma scum, he'll shoot an on wagon town voice and manage the self vote qh. That gives us a 7p neighborhood with 14 names total and an 8 person tomorrow. We should be looking for a similar 3 name overlap I think, with the scummiest players all off wagon to hopefully be solved via elimination.

[Bingle]

I'm not townreading A50, and that's actually a pretty big thing. Definitely could be that he just hasn't had an opportunity to show me his town monkey intestines yet, but I don't want him on wagon without a read on him.

[Bingle]

Huh, kinda expected to die here.

I have no real desire to wade into the meat of any of this tonight.

[Bingle]

Oh, cool, a proto VC. That should help me jump back into the game. Thanks nsg!

[Bingle]

Neighborhood 1: Dusa, Dannflor, DGB, GL, STD, OkaPoka, T3, Yuri, FG

Leftovers: Bingle, Almost50, UNOwen, Titus, CB, LavarManos, Bell

We should definitely be solving in not the Neighborhood.

VOTE: CB

[Bingle]

More because solving outside of the neighborhood gives us a larger overlap in the pools, but sure, that's another benefit.

[Bingle]

Yuri, what exactly excited you about the setup that you're not being allowed to explore?

[Bingle]

I mean, I don’t even know where to begin with all the leaps of logic and assumptions inherent in that approach. But I’ll leave it alone and see if anything interesting happens.

?

It is inherently better to solve outside of the neighborhood first because those people who are outside of the neighborhood cannot be sorted inside of the neighborhood. The only inherent assumptions are that we want to have large amounts of neighborhood overlap and that there is scum outside of the first neighborhood.

[Bingle]

Those extenuating circumstances are?

[Bingle]

Spoiler:

VOTE: cupcake butterfly
got townpings from Fenrir in some posts I saw quoted by A50, and I want in on CB's game so I'm moving there

1118 uses ellipses and a question mark! It ices Cupcake out before asking him a question! This undermines the question! The question is performative!

A human who was good writing this post might write "...?" and nothing else! It looks like Gamma Emerald wrote his human response but then by wrote wanted to add a dutiful due diligence and question about something he had fully decided was stupid because he is supposed to be investigating if he's good!

This is absolutely correct

But what about it makes me scum?

It looks like the people who posted since Gamma Emerald's last spree are Cupcake Butterfly and Almost50!
I think that spree is so bad that people who did not vote him for it are likely to also be bad!

This post itself looks haphazardly written in a way that doesn’t flow naturally
The logical way to write this is “I think Gamma’s last string of posts was bad, these people are suspect for not thinking the same thing”
I feel like Dusa may be trying to deflect attention from actual scum with this maneuver

This is an inorganic progression on a slot from a single reading! Hephaestus made this! Gamma Emerald got help from Hephaestus and pretended otherwise!

Is Hephaestus representative of anyone in this game?
Also I don’t particularly feel like my progression is as bad as you make it out to be, the second post was made more out of a place of questioning Bingle vs. defending CB

Once CB flips scum I feel like Dusa should be flipped next

I really don't think this is very townspewy, tbh.

[Bingle]

kinda expected to die here.

really? why?

I was probably more universally tr than Dann and the person whose NA plan we ended up following. I'm also a major stepping stone to overcome when mislimming A50 lategame (See: Dann talking about how he'd sheep my A50 read if I had one to the point that my lack of TR there made him stop TR-ing A50) and A50 scum wouldn't be particularly excited about leaving me alive. Okascum would want me dead as the only other strong mechspeak voice ITT.

The simplest answer to "Why Dann over Bingle" is that scum wanted to shrink Neighborhood 1, which could have a couple of interesting interpretations (scum is trying to get a majority in N1 or N1 is very full of town) or that Dann's reads were more threatening than mine. Of course, all this presumes I'm town, but :le sigh:.

As far as not letting you play with neighborhoods, we're following my plan atm, which largely is to ensure that everyone hoods up and we have as much overlap as possible while killing off scummy slots that aren't in any neighborhoods yet. I don't see how that conflicts in any way with your desire to solve with overlapping hoods and the whether we vig in each pool thing is a discussion that happens on D5, so shouldn't influence your play at this point anyway.

[Bingle]

it's possible to brute force strong advantage just through mechanics then that becomes less necessary and it becomes a case of "sheep the winning strategy"

This bit merits it's own response.

I functionally vetoed the 'breaking strategy' that minimizes dayplay on D1. You really don't have to worry about that. Mechanically, we're mildly incentivized to look at off wagon slots first, but it's still all dayplay.

[Bingle]

yuri is either in my mind, town who is playing in such a way that i consider playing against win condition. now you might not consider it playing against wincon, but i consider playing actively in a way that you consider to be -EV, not playing to wincon. im not accusing yuri of breaking site rules i want to make that clear. i just believe that yuri is lowering the bar for the game in such a way that if he's town, there is literally nothing stopping scum from thinking they need to at least play protown and having that being a consideration for scum leads to a whole different experience.

This is a wholly uncompelling case, oka. If I'm missing a larger piece of the puzzle feel free to let me know.

First of all, you're overstating the mechanical advantage that Yuri is avoiding. Second, the actual reason is a policy one, and one that applies to me more than Yuri, given that I actively worked against the have a two month buffer where all decisions are functionally made by one player plan. I don't think that "I don't want to force wagon comp" is a particularly scummy take, especially when compared to actions like FG's (which actively prevented the manipulation of wagon comp).

@Titus: Feel free to pursue a Yuri wagon. Just because I want the spotlight outside of the neighborhood doesn't mean we can't also solve inside of it.

[Bingle]

I think Gamma trying to skeevy his way onto CB wagon in D1 indicates CB town.

Now I think Fakegod is town if Dusa is town because I would not expect a mafia to make this post after Dusa said the opposite opinion.

This sounds remarkably true even though there's zero evidence statistical or otherwise. It's like it has a high truthiness value.

+1

[Bingle]

@Bingle, My main reason to pursue a wagon must remain true for me to do so. I don't need your permission to pursue it. I need the facts to pursue it. That requires verifying.

I'm not opposed to the other wagons either unless something shifted in since my mental health post. I am easing my way back in.

I think you misunderstood. I was supporting your Yuri push as a good place to look at content and using that to point out my preference to solve outside of the hood is not a hard "We should never eliminate in Neighborhood 1 today" but rather a "I think it is slightly better if we eliminate outside of Neighborhood 1 today".

Also just because you don't need my permission doesn't mean I can't give it. If/when you get a chance I'd like to hear your thoughts on likely wagon comp before the discussion of controlling the votes happened.

[Bingle]

sorry i was unconscious what was going on

25 years of my life and still I'm trying to get up that great big hill of hope

[Bingle]

THATS WHERE HE-MAN MEME CAME FROM?

LMFAO

[Bingle]

I think I'm missing something on the he-man thing tbh

Oka asked what was going on while communing with Cthulhu, so I quoted the 4 Non Blondes song "What's Going On" which is the song that led to that meme of He-Man screaming Heya over and over.

[Bingle]

bingle did you know that yuri feels doubtful on dusa's alignment?

I didn't but I'd be curious as to what the reasoning is.

[Bingle]

I'll look at this again but I think that gamma was already broadly under suspicion that lingered from FG interactions, no? idk this does overlap with the bit of the game I didn't really read, but my impression was that gamma never really got cleared and so I don't think that pressuring him at that point (esp after the wagon had died down) is strongly anti-partner

The GE/FG bit was largely ignored by everyone that wasn't GE/FG, afaik. I certainly didn't think it was AI.

[Bingle]

Eh. Looks to me like Yuri is approaching infiltrated neighborhoods the same way I do, tbh.

[Bingle]

This push and the reaction GE had to it are the reason GE was limmed, yuri, if that helps with context.

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Oh,

lovely

.

Maybe

threatening to fade my existence will be the motivation I need to participate.

I'll confirm that I have no solid scumreads because I've read less than the first 20 pages of the game, even less with critical thought. Larges are not

my kink

what I thought I could keep up with.

To make this fun, I'd love to invite my opportunistic wagoners to a game!

The Wheel of Speech!

Here's how the game works...

Everybody on this wheel is assigned a number between 1 and 5 in clockwise order: Bingle as number 1, FakeGod, DrippingGoofball, Dannflor, and then Almost50 as number 5.

I will pick a number between 1 and 5 arbitrarily (you'll have to take my word for it, I don't know how to do the random number thingamajig in the forum text.) The person who's number I picked has several options:

1. Pick a person in the playerlist for me to personally ISO

and give tons of feedback on.

2. Force me to answer any question you have through a diagram

involving my reads, thoughts on the gamestate, or a reaction to YOUR commentary on anything. (Yes, the diagram may still have words attached.)

3. Pass...

You forgo your turn of participation, and I will continue to the next number I draw.

4. Deflect...

This is functionally like Pass, but you MUST choose ANOTHER player on the Wheel for them to enact their turn. If someone deflects to you though, you can still choose to pass.

You only get

ONE

turn until you're eliminated from the Wheel. So make sure you know what you want to do!

Yes, new players can still join the Wheel by

VOTING

me

BEFOR

E I get to the

LAST

player on the wheel. You will be counted into the wheel the following time at which I bring up the wheel again.

But Cupcake Butterfly! THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU? I want to do MORE than one thing on my turn!

What if I wanted Cupcake to ISO MULTIPLE players at once?
What if I wanted Cupcake to answer MULTIPLE questions with a diagram?
What if I wanted Deflect to another player on Wheel AND force that crooked MF Cupcake to spew?

There is an

EASY

way to do so!
Just guess who my

MAIN

account is!! Any guess of who my main is will do!
You

ALL

have a good chance to figure out my main account! After all... I've played with 10 of you before

THAT I KNOW OF

... over half of which with multiple games.

I'm not a stranger.

Here's An Example How This Game Works With ALL Mechanics In Play

Cupcake:

Number 3.

DrippingGoofball:

PASS.

Cupcake:

Number 1

Bingle:

Deflect! Dannflor!

Dannflor:

I hate all of you. 1. ISO OkaPoka.

Cupcake:

*ISOs OkaPoka and gives a very in-depth read.*

OkaPoka:

I hate you, Cupcake.

OkaPoka Votes Cupcake Butterfly For Elimination... Since Numbers 1, 3, and 4 have already been used, the current numbers are: OkaPoka at 1. FakeGod at 2. Almost50 at 5.

Cupcake:

Number 5!

Almost50:

I think you are Zoraster! Number 2... Give me a diagram about x and y.

Cupcake:

GIRL, I WISH. OK, here's my poor artistic ability in full public detail.... Now, number 2!

FakeGod:

Deflect.

OkaPoka:

DAMN IT, FAKEGOD. OK, I think you're NANCY. ISO Gamma Emerald and Bell.

Cupcake:

*ISOs Gamma Emerald and Bell.*

Bell and Gamma Emerald vote Cupcake bringing to L-1, Cupcake is lolhammered. Game over... both due to lim, and because Bell, Gamma Emerald, and random person who voted Cupcake after last player on wheel was picked.

This is all VERY confusing so I can reiterate the rules once again!

But, here we go!

NUMBER ONE: BINGLE, YOU'RE UP!

...?
What's the end goal of this? What made you think/want to do this?

With that said, CB's "I need help to get into a 40 page game that's been open for a week" doesn't jive with me as coming from town who has played with more than half the list, so my vote remains there atm.

Why?
I feel like I've have plenty of times where as town, I've been behind where I really should have been in terms of foothold in the game. I kinda think one game that ended recently functions as a solid example.

VOTE: cupcake butterfly
got townpings from Fenrir in some posts I saw quoted by A50, and I want in on CB's game so I'm moving there

This is an inorganic progression on a slot from a single reading! Hephaestus made this! Gamma Emerald got help from Hephaestus and pretended otherwise!

With that said, CB's "I need help to get into a 40 page game that's been open for a week" doesn't jive with me as coming from town who has played with more than half the list, so my vote remains there atm.

Why?
I feel like I've have plenty of times where as town, I've been behind where I really should have been in terms of foothold in the game. I kinda think one game that ended recently functions as a solid example.

I missed a post! This one goes in the middle! I'm sorry! I mess up so much... I'll work late today!

The posts are also individually bad! 1120 is overly generalized about the concept of falling behind in a game, without applying it to Cupcake's arc! It reeks of already knowing whether Butterfly is bad, skipping to the end on whether the rule itself is good! There is no analysis of whether the the factor that made Gamma Emerald footholdless is present this game! There is only analysis of whether Cupcake's alignment is the same this game!
Ahhh!!
I feel like I feel something stronger than I can put into words! I'm such a bad communicator!!
It really feels like Gamma Emerald read Cupcake's role PM then wrote this post!

1118 uses ellipses and a question mark! It ices Cupcake out before asking him a question! This undermines the question! The question is performative!

A human who was good writing this post might write "...?" and nothing else! It looks like Gamma Emerald wrote his human response but then by wrote wanted to add a dutiful due diligence and question about something he had fully decided was stupid because he is supposed to be investigating if he's good!

1123 is as dirty as Cerberus's bed!
It ruins charitable readings of 1120 where Gamma Emerald just likes Cupcake or something!
It's also a strange way to unvote SaveTheDragons!

[Bingle]

a50 is one of the few slots id move to conditioned on bingle's read

He hasn't towntold yet, if that's the question. I'm not sold that he's scum, but it's definitely a possibility.

[Bingle]

As scum or town?

Both, but the scum motivation is largely because I think it's +town. I might be reading into his motivations, though.

[Bingle]

Personally, I'm far more concerned with the idea that DGB is posting in the neighborhood and not here than that Yuri is attempting to hunt in both.

As far as potential town motivations for Yuri expressing a pocket scumread in the Neighborhood and not the main thread, imagine that I had come up with a sudden scumread on Dusa and started hardpushing it. As town, it wouldn't really have made sense to pivot there. I'd know that Dusa was an unlikely elimination based on behavior yesterday and that pursuing that read probably wasn't going to gain traction. As scum, I'd probably know that there was more support for the push coming in the form of people in the hood, and would be more likely to commit to that read.

Obviously I can't make the judgment call of whether Yuri was trying to shop for support or reaction test the rest of the thread or even pocket people by pretending to reaction test without seeing the posts in question, but as long as the scumhunting isn't being done exclusively in the hood I have no problem with people outing specific information only in the hood. And I fully admit that as scum I pull that same kind of thing to make people think that I'm town reaction testing by feeding scum information in the hood, because of course I do. Hoods are a WIFOM game and townreads generated inside of them are incredibly unlikely to be useful. The town use of hoods is to pay attention to the flow of information out of them.

[Bingle]

I would just like to point out that this whole back and forth supports my position of wanting to solve outside of the first neighborhood.

I'm probably gonna wait a bit for the cupcake to come back.

[Bingle]

I think you have rather underdeveloped thoughts about Gamma and Dannflor's relationship if you didn't see Dannflor as one of the top tier murder options! It makes me worry about you! I would not let you pick my Duo Boons!

?

That post wasn't a "Dann wasn't a reasonable NK". That post was a response to someone asking why I thought I might be a priority nightkill.

[Bingle]

Eh. Looks to me like Yuri is approaching infiltrated neighborhoods the same way I do, tbh.

I've been having town reads on almost everyone but Bingle is scum.

I don't have doubts that Yuri is town, if I wasn't in the game, I would suspect he's my alt

I hate to see my town reads at each other's throats.

Weird post, care to elaborate?

[Bingle]

That thought is so silly! Mafia only get 3 murders all game!

Mafia get a maximum of four venges before the setup change, and that's kind of my point.

I'm potentially very dangerous as endgame town, was being sheeped on mechtalk by literally the entire thread (even Oka was sheeping me in another thread when he started), was a fairly universal townread based solely on my own contributions, and scum don't have the guarantee of being able to kill annoying town voices before they can speak their mind later. I don't think "I'm a fairly likely elimination" is at all a reach there.

[Bingle]

I'd still like to hear your reasoning, DGB.

[Bingle]

Solo also had a pretty bizarre readslist right before flaking and A50 hasn't done anything particularly towny.

I'm not really in a hurry to end the day but it's a fine push.

[Bingle]

@Titus: A50's reasoning on Gamma.

Spoiler:

I am unlikely to join the fast-growing Gamma wagon. I don't see anything scummy in their posts and I dislike the speed in which it got from 0 to 5 votes

VOTE: Gamma bamma

Make that 6 votes on Gamma in what? 12 hours?

It was NOT the largest wagon, Dann. There were at least THREE "larger wagons" at the time of the first vote, and at least 2 at the time of 2nd, 3rd & 4th votes. It was even tied with the other 2 at the time of the 5th. Your argument only applies to Bell's vote specifically

[Bingle]

FG, did you ever explain what about Gamma's CB progression looked non partner-y?

[Bingle]

I know Bingle has said before that he respects my towngame, so I don't think he would want to risk putting himself at odds with me or starting a push he wouldn't be able to follow through on when he would know that my coasting early this game was solely due to an ongoing game that was going to wrap up soon.

This makes a lot more sense to me than what I thought you were saying, tbh. I thought previously you were arguing that I wouldn't think it was possible you were town because of that game and the fact you were playing differently when I knew you were going to be low impact regardless of your alignment because of that game. The clarification makes me feel better about you.

[Bingle]

bingle, would you be voting a50 right now if cupcake got deleted?

No. I want to look at monkey’s reaction to the wagon on him, and that’s regardless of the cb wagon. I want to hear dgb say my name some more. I also feel like there are probably people I’m forgetting about that deserve poking.

[Bingle]

How come LurksackManos is sliding by?

I only have the one vote, and CB hasn't shown up or been replaced yet.

Why has your love for saying my name cooled?

It doesn't look like monkey is going to obvtown, but I'm vaguely okay with his townreads list for now. Monkey, if town, you should not self vote. Town wants live people on wagon.

[Bingle]

As for my TRs, add Titus to the list of Bingle, Oka, STD, GL, DGB, Yuri & Bell (although Yuri is now a considerably weaker TR than the rest)

Which names here do you disagree with?

[Bingle]

I firmly believe that Gamma's 1123 and leading up to it came from scum trying to give bs reasons to push a town (CB).

Okay, let's talk about this.

I think that the lead up to 1123 looks more like a soft defense of CB than a reason to push him. Similarly, the actual vote has the biggest escape hatch I've ever seen attached to it. GE doesn't start pushing CB as scum until 1144 and that's as a weak attempt to tie Dusa's alignment to CB. Given the Dusa/CB interactions, I'm inclined to think this is more likely scum trying to get a mislim out of losing a partner. It could be a throwaway to deflect suspicion from himself with both town, but I think that's unlikely given the OMGUS nature of the read.

I don't see this as a particular commitment or push to get CB to lim. Is there a reason you do, or do you think CB is spewed town because GE wasn't really trying to get the elimination there?

[Bingle]

Also, why would we not use the 8 neighborhood to kill folk? Did I miss a conversation?

This is potentially a scumslip, even though I'm like 90% sure it's not actually a scumslip, btw. I just want to mark this to come back if Bell flips scum in the endgame.

[Bingle]

bingle's defending him like a mad man

I'm really not.

I'm poking elsewhere, but monkey hasn't towntold or indicated a likeliness to towntell in the near future, and I'm okay with the lim. I'm more delaying for the sake of other reads.

[Bingle]

Yeah, that's town monkey. I'm now officially against the monkey elimination.

[Bingle]

Also, A50, the point of eliminating outside of N1 is to keep the numbers of players in the neighborhoods as high as possible, both for purposes of overlap and preventing scum majorities. Having someone self hammer runs counter to both of those goals.

[Bingle]

So, what are you saying? Do you want me on the CB wagon??

Yes. I want everyone who is not currently in a neighborhood and is not the defacto lim for tomorrow on the final wagon for the day. I've been pretty upfront about that.

[Bingle]

Leftovers: Bingle, Almost50, UNOwen, Titus, CB, LavarManos, Bell

I would like the D2 Neighborhood to be Bingle, A50, UNO, Titus, Bell and 3 people from N1 if we were to eliminate right now. My three would be Dusa, Oka, Yuri, mostly because I think Oka/Yuri is p much never S/S.

[Bingle]

VOTE: LavarManos

We keep forgetting about this lurksack.

I might not have outright stated it but I implied pretty heavily that that’s where I’m leaning for tomorrow. I don’t see a world where LM isn’t one of the 5 at this point.

[Bingle]

Yes. I want everyone who is not currently in a neighborhood and is not the defacto lim for tomorrow on the final wagon for the day. I've been pretty upfront about that.

Why not have a consistent group of universal townreads on all of the wagon?

Why do you want every player to be in neighborhood 1 or 2?

Feel free to educate me if I'm understanding something wrong here.

If we have one group of UTR that make us every wagon, we win if it’s an easy lobby and lose if we’re wrong at the beginning.

If we have every player in a hood at the end of D2 (with the exception of players who were always going to die) we can use the rest of the neighborhoods to establish more or less regular hunting and communication, allowing us to continue forming reads and solving after the split.

Basically, the world in which we CAN build a UTR hood we’ve already won the game and so it’s better to focus on worlds where the game isn’t easy as fuck.

[Bingle]

I want uno to hammer here.

[Bingle]

Remember when people thought I was scum? Pepperidge farm remembers.

[Bingle]

The wagon today should ideally be the seven towniest people with a roughly even number from each neighborhood, FWIW

[Bingle]

also can I ask someone to volunteer to be the Designated Leaker for this new hood as I'm suddenly struck with FOMO

Sure. Nero absolutely refuses to share his reads.

[Bingle]

idk why but i thought dgb was dismantling cb wagon

I don’t think DGB was dismantling anything D2. It was pretty willing to murder death kill CB D1 though.

[Bingle]

Almost50 - ask bingle

Solid town.

[Bingle]

I don’t think DGB was dismantling anything D2. It was pretty willing to murder death kill CB D1 though.

1976 is where she dismantled it.

That led to my subsequent unvote and destruction of the A50 wagon.

I think this is a case of hindsight bias, tbh. You know that DGB's post influenced you to unvote, and thus you attribute the intention of getting you to unvote to the post. I don't see 1976 as a particularly strong defense. I'm not really too worried about that at the moment though.

[Bingle]

a scumflip wouldn't but if he's town it's good to know Sooner rather than Later is what I'm saying

The apparent inevitability of the flip is exactly why we should start the day looking for better options, imo.

[Bingle]

seeing a red cb didn't change my opinions on the game much fwiw

I think it lends context to the wagons D1 at the very least. There are things we can go back and look at knowing that CB/GE was a S/S dueling pair of wagons.

[Bingle]

More context good for when we need it but seeing the flip did not make me go oooooh this means this then

Eh. CB flipping red makes me feel better about GL. Dusa town is pretty much solidified imo. I also think it means STD is town pretty solidly: If Yuri town, STD swung to a partner instead of town in a position where two partners were being wagoned and if Yuri scum that means EVERY D1 wagon was townled on scum, meaning both that scum never had any pushes of their own AND that they were just kind of okay with them being the only people under suspicion. I also think it should cool paranoia about me, but your mileage may vary.

[Bingle]

Meta > wagon analysis, especialy in a setup like this.

Hey I have an idea since you believe in meta and I'm lazy.

Can you metadive LavarManos?

My meta on LM is that he replaces in and gets vigged before I have to bother reading him.

[Bingle]

Bingle
Dusa
Almost50
GuiltyLion

Save The Dragons
UNOwen
FakeGod
OkaPoka
Yuri Gagarin

Titus
DrippingGoofball
T3
LavarManos

Reads in sections of Town, Probably town?, I guess scum. Tell me where I'm wrong.

If we're in the world where scum didn't have any pushes on town D1 I think that cuts out all of FG/Oka/Titus/DGB/Dusa/Uno/GL from being the final member (all of them were in a position to lead a wagon for significant portions of D1). So in the case I'm wrong on STD/Yuri being a S/S pair my PoE shrinks to mostly people who are already in a likely to be limmed position anyway.

I will admit that Yuri having disappeared again is concerning.

[Bingle]

ill go back to lavarmanos i am indifferent between the toe-may-toes and the toh-mah-toes

But real talk: how do you feel about tomatillos?

[Bingle]

also can I ask someone to volunteer to be the Designated Leaker for this new hood as I'm suddenly struck with FOMO

Sure. Nero absolutely refuses to share his reads.

An update: Nero still won’t share his reads and we now have 4 people who have made ego posts.

[Bingle]

I looked at the archives in LavarManos's bedroom! I found a game where he was much more chatty!

However!

LavarManos was evil!!!!!

Lynx?

[Bingle]

We played in the Haunted Mansion game.

Why are you assuming that’s the game Dusa saw?

[Bingle]

Dusa is clearly attempting to use some kind of cheat code. What game did you read that LM was active in?

VOTE: Lavar

[Bingle]

The wagon today should ideally be the seven towniest people with a roughly even number from each neighborhood, FWIW

This is true. I'm not going to attempt to force it through, because attempting to force it through is the surest way of killing WIM for town.

[Bingle]

UNVOTE:

Hm.

[Bingle]

Subject: Newbie 2052 | The End

Hello, everyone.

Welcome to Newbie 2052. I am your host, Sirius9121.

The game is in

Day 1

.

Moderated by Sirius9121, backed up by Pookythemagicalbear

Players

Lunar Martian
marcistar
Cook
lenora
shadowslug
HypoSoc
Battle Mage (SE)
YyottaCat (SE)
Not_Mafia (SE)

A · next to their name means they have not confirmed. An asterisk means they have received a prod.

Spoiler: Votecounter Settings

Living Players

LavarManos (replaces lenora)
shadowslug
HypoSoc
Battle Mage

Dead Players

Lunar Martian
YyottaCat
Cook
Not_Mafia
marcistar

Links

Day 1: Post #4
Day 2: Post #300
Day 3: Post #460
Day 4: Post #529

Deadline

2021-02-22 09:41:00 8.00

Dusa, did you read this game?

[Bingle]

Also, did you read any town lm games?

[Bingle]

Haunt the mansion!

I looked at the archives in LavarManos's bedroom! I found a game where he was much more chatty!

However!

LavarManos was evil!!!!!

We played in the Haunted Mansion game.

I might be A50 levels of tinfoiling here, but I think this means there’s at least one, possibly two scum in LM/Dusa.

First of all, Dusa apparently went to a game a 8 months ago to look for scum meta of lavar when he had a completed scum game that’s like two weeks old. Second of all, LM somehow knew that this was the game that Dusa had looked at despite the other option being, as noted, two weeks old.

[Bingle]

Thoughts?

[Bingle]

Subject: Mini Theme 2164: Betrayal Mafia I (Game over!)

P

LAYER

L

IST:

01. Gamma Emerald*;*
02. SirCakez
03. GeorgeBailey*
04. CreativeMod1*
05.

clidd

Albert B. Rampage

Flavor Leaf
06.

Pine**;**

Chara

LavarManos
07. Bingle
08.

Nosferatu**

DKKoba
09.

DoctorPepper*

I Keep Siteflaking
10.

PenguinPower*

the worst
11. Fun and Games*
12.

Ydrasse

Noraa

Tsunami Slayer
13.

beeboy*;*

JohnnyFarrar

Note: no obvious Dusa involvement to explain the assumption.

[Bingle]

well Bingle my boy that certainlys looks prety bad but are people who are wrong more likely to be scum

but I did a quick read thru that LavarManos game you linked (newbie 2052) and holy moly they seem like an actual real person in that game

I’m not saying that anyone is wrong. Having reread both games, I think LM does tend to try hard more as scum.

The issue I take is that Dusa offered vague meta that matched a game that just ended, lm assumed she was describing a game from last year, wouldn’t answer when asked why, and then Dusa was like: “yup, talking about the game from last year!”

I have not completed the meta effort of looking to see if lm also try hards more as town as of right now, but I definitely want thoughts about this interaction. (Not votes though)

[Bingle]

I agree that lm was probably referring to me when he used we. My question is why he assumed that Dusa was referring to that game, given that contextually it was a direct response to me asking for the game that Dusa had meta’d.

[Bingle]

I mean... that's kind of the point of it being a tinfoil theory.

It's a bunch of odd but not unexplainable little things, and all of them share a possible explanation of it being a manufactured read. I think it's probably for the best to leave it until Dusa/LM have responded though, to avoid pointing out reasonable explanations if they're not the case and my theory is right.

FWIW, I think the meta read isn't particularly reliable regardless as this is LM's first large game.

[Bingle]

I don't scumread Lavar but at this point he's just dead weight.
Is there enough time for a Yuri wagon?

We have 8 days.

I don't think a Yuri wagon actually has the support to go through, although feel free to case him.

[Bingle]

I could easily see scum Oka here.

[Bingle]

I don't want anyone to vote before LM and Dusa respond to me.

[Bingle]

Actually, just Dusa at this point.

[Bingle]

T3 12
Dusa 12
Yuri Gagarin 123
FakeGod 13
GuiltyLion 13
DrippingGoofball 13
OkaPoka 1
Save The Dragons 1
Almost50 2
UNOwen 23
Bingle 2
Titus 2
LavarManos

Roughly speaking if LM were the lim here we'd want 2/3 of Me/Titus/A50 to join.

[Bingle]

Bingle if you could releash the neighborhood today from the start, what would you be looking at?

I wouldn't.

[Bingle]

VOTE: LM

[Bingle]

The wagon today should ideally be the seven towniest people with a roughly even number from each neighborhood, FWIW

This is true. I'm not going to attempt to force it through, because attempting to force it through is the

surest way of killing WIM for town.

then why make this post?

[Bingle]

bingle, im asking a pure hypothetical on who you would have in the neighborhood if you were an imaginary dictator

If I was an imaginary dictator and could make all of the neighborhoods with my information, this neighborhood is probably pretty close to optimal. If all of the towniest people by consensus are town, then we already win the game and we can go home. If they're not, we should be scumhunting, not arguing over wagon placement. The important part of the neighborhoods is keeping a line of communication between all of them. So it's important that the overlap of 1/2, 1/3 and 2/3 not all be scum. It empirically isn't.

I hammered to prevent STD from doing so.

Cut off by thread lock.

[Bingle]

@Mod: Do scum who are shot in the neighborhood phase get a venge kill?

Yes.

That's....

Massively more scumsided than I thought it was. I probably wouldn't have signed up for this had I realized that.

[Bingle]

how was that not evident bingle, nsg literally modelled this off as vengeful mafia lmfao

Start at 40% EV. Add two massively scumsided mechanics. Expect playable game. What?

[Bingle]

how was that not evident bingle, nsg literally modelled this off as vengeful mafia lmfao

Yes. nsg changed a setup that was roughly balanced in practice and scumsided in theory. She added: Town not being able to communicate easily after D5 and Scum being able to achieve majority without actually achieving majority.

She expected the EV to stay the same. What part of that sounds like I should have assumed she didn't also add a townsiding factor, particularly given the setup had the phrasing of eliminate for the first half and killed for the second half and scum vengefuls killed by vigs explicitly don't get a venge shot?

I didn't even think that bore clarification in the setup page and I STILL THOUGHT THE SCUM NOT NEEDING TO REACH MAJORITY TO WIN THE GAME WAS LIKELY MORE SCUMSIDED THAN THE ORIGINAL SETUP.

[Bingle]

Subject: [SETUP] Situation Room

From the November-December Challenge

Situation Room

5 Vengeful Mafia

12 Vanilla Townies

• Begins Nightless.
  
• When a player is eliminated, the entirety of their wagon is added to a new neighborhood. This neighborhood will remain open until the end of the following day.
  
• After 5 eliminations, the game thread is locked. All players not already in any neighborhoods are added to one.
  
• From there, each neighborhood is opened again and gains a kill, decided by majority vote within the neighborhood.
  
• The game continues with kills decided within the neighborhoods (sequentially, from the earliest neighborhood to the latest) until one faction has achieved victory.

EV for Vengeful Mafia 5:12 is 38.44%, which I think that this should resemble pretty closely.

It probably makes sense to transition to blitz-esque deadlines once the neighborhood kills start happening.

I'm making this thread because I think this might be the next large theme I run, and to maybe get some feedback before doing that.

[Bingle]

I STILL THOUGHT THE SCUM NOT NEEDING TO REACH MAJORITY TO WIN THE GAME

where does it say this

I discussed it in the Setup thread. Scum with a majority in N1 can kill a player in N2, giving a scum majority in N2. Then Scum can kill a player in N3 from N2. Cascading kill control means they don't need majority overall, they just need enough sequential kills to make their win inevitable. Additionally, if they still have venges, town can't interfere with this process by killing scum out of the majority neighborhoods, because scum just uses that vengeful to regain whatever parities they need.

[Bingle]

After 5

eliminations

, the game thread is locked. All players not already in any neighborhoods are added to one.
From there, each neighborhood is opened again and gains a

kill

, decided by majority vote within the neighborhood.
The game continues with

kills

decided within the neighborhoods (sequentially, from the earliest neighborhood to the latest) until one faction has achieved victory.

@Oka: Nope. It's not clear from the OP, which I did actually read. Notice, there are 5

eliminations

and then

kills

. The scum role PM Yuri just linked specifies

eliminations

.

Gonna stop harping on this because it's really unfair to nsg to have this conversation here where she explicitly can't join in, but that's awful parsing on your part.

[Bingle]

Begins

Nightless.

Implies literally the exact opposite, and also dayvigs aren't eliminations. Eliminations are specifically the majority choice mechanic by which players are voted out.

GL, I think Titus' thing is only a reliable slip if Oka is scum. I don't think anyone else would have realized the massive scumsiding mechanic AND has shown that they knew the setup had continued venging post Phase 1.

[Bingle]

Theoretically others can be included as well but if you know bell, you know he had to go

I mean... I don't really know Bell. I just trusted cabd on that in unwnd's game and it worked out okay.

[Bingle]

@FG:

Subject: Yggdrasil - Stratum FINAL -

Bell - For {Bell_Alignment} get {postcount}. If {postcount}>50/Day -->Town; else-->Scum

[Bingle]

Well if you are going to lim me thats a fine reason. Nothing would make me happier than getting limmed for being a genius xd

The only reason I have to suspect you atm is you leaning into mechspeak over scumhunting. I can see a world in which you are scum, but you are by no means a strong scumread.

[Bingle]

T3 12
Dusa 12
Yuri Gagarin 123
FakeGod 13
GuiltyLion 13
DrippingGoofball 13
OkaPoka 1
Save The Dragons 1
Almost50 2
UNOwen 23
Bingle 23
Titus 23

Roughly speaking if LM were the lim here we'd want 2/3 of Me/Titus/A50 to join.

To further the spiderweb, the wagon should be A50, STD, Oka. Dusa, GL, Me, and either Titus or Uno would be my preferred additions. Yuri should not be on another wagon if town because he's already a parity weak point.

[Bingle]

Mod: Do scum win if they reach majority in any hood or do they win if they reach majority overall?

Majority overall. It’s just that if they reach majority in one or two hoods it likely becomes trivial for them to outaction town and win due to the “nothing can prevent this” clause

[Bingle]

I'm like

90% sure that he means that if someone (aka me) were to be in every hood, then that person getting midlim'd could lead to scum gaining majority in one hood but because I'd simultaneously not be in the one after that either, if they then shot town int he following hood they might gain majority there, and so on and so forth until GG

More or less.

Let’s say there’s 2/4 scum in neighborhood 3 and 2/6 scum in neighborhood 4. Killing the overlap gives control over N3 and almost control over N4 meaning scum have to convince exactly one townie in N4 that they’re right to have consecutive kills.

It also removes potential for watching where kills are going to try and guess the hoods scum are attempting to prioritize.

[Bingle]

VOTE: Yuri
How tf have we let this obvscum survive.

What’s the teal deer on the case again?

[Bingle]

I think T3 townflip would actually firm up my Yuri townread fairly well. I could see them as maybe S/S committed to a hardbus, but I don't think Yuri approaches T3 town the way he has as scum.

Dusa/Lavar interactions couldn't have been S/S, so that tinfoil is dead and I'm back to hardtowning Dusa.

GL is very solidly town. I don't think he maintains this level of solvey activity in the light of thread lurk as scum when he could just let the game rot. This really feels like his energy from XLO of the game he mentioned, just toned down and while I think he's fully capable of pulling that off in the short term the long term is another case entirely.

Monkey tunnel on his solve is consistent with town him read. His treatment of me and overall thread energy reinforces that belief.



Uno/Oka were townreads a while ago, but both have softened considerably. Uno has had a distinct drop in the early days energy. Basically like GL if GL hadn't continued his behavior. Oka leaning into the mech instead of investigating on the last couple of days has been . I'd like to hear him propose a lim that isn't T3.

DGB is low impact per usual. I dislike it's take on the T3 situation of the waffly takes on P90 and the T3 is town because Qoobee -> Maybe T3 is scum -> T3 is TSTBS. I also dislike the in depth criticism of the Uno hammer and ignoring the FakeGod hammer while calling it town. I'm also vaguely interested in DGB's conclusion of FG town based on the back of FG voting exclusively scum D1 and never voting cupcake D2, despite spending a large portion of the day sheeping me there the day before.

FG's townread of DGB is also something I want explained, because I just don't see it. Honestly, I think the towniest thing DGB has posted is the "I would be doing exactly this behavior if LM is town and I am scum" post, and that's not worth a "THIS IS UBERTOWN FOREVER" by any stretch. Still though, the fact that Gamma reached out again after their fight played out made me think their fight was genuine and not theater, and I'm not sure that that fight happens if they're talking in a PT.

Titus is concerning to me. I don't really expect to see a lack of paranoia from town her regarding anyone and I've never once gotten the impression that she's considered that I might be scum. I'm not sure if she's genuinely just been agreeing with the things I've said or if it's a manipulation effort. I'm not really interested in pushing here atm given that she's probably the person putting the most effort into finding scum after GL.

T3/STD I have no strong feelings about. They might as well not be playing the game for all the impressions they've left on me.

[Bingle]

I don't believe Titus would be posting the way she did if she knew scum venges lasted into the second phase of the game, and I think if she were scum she would have figured that information out already from scheming with buddies in the mafia PT.

I think the first portion is accurate. I think the second portion is only accurate if her scumbuddies knew that phase two continued with venges, which I think is a flawed assumption, given, you know, me not knowing that. I DO think it spews Titus/Oka as not S/S. Is there anyone else you'd say you'd be comfortable saying knew for sure that's how it worked before the mod confirmation happened?

[Bingle]

All I remember from Titus is her complaining she hasn't caught up yet

Titus wants to lim Yuri because she thinks day one was three scumwagons based on VCA and the scum not attempting to swing the vote to him. She was the most active in Room 2 by far with like 4 game relevant posts. I think Uno and I each had two without double checking, and two of the people in the hood never posted.

[Bingle]

Titus' case or my interpretation of it?

[Bingle]

@T3

VOTE: Yuri
How tf have we let this obvscum survive.

What’s the teal deer on the case again?

Could someone unvote so no lolhammers?

[Bingle]

T3 12
Dusa 124
Yuri Gagarin 1234
FakeGod 13
GuiltyLion 13
DrippingGoofball 134
OkaPoka 1
Save The Dragons 14
Almost50 24
UNOwen 23
Bingle 23
Titus 234

Roughly speaking if LM were the lim here we'd want 2/3 of Me/Titus/A50 to join.

To further the spiderweb, the wagon should be A50, STD, Oka. Dusa, GL, Me, and either Titus or Uno would be my preferred additions. Yuri should not be on another wagon if town because he's already a parity weak point.

Oka holds the hammer, as far as I’m concerned.

[Bingle]

Is the premise that I'm faking the annoyance, leaning into the annoyance for a mechanical advantage (Like I did in Fogport) or that the annoyance itself is AI?

[Bingle]

Is anything not possible for scum Bingle?

It is. I don't think the annoyance is AI, I'm just interested in why you think it is.

Also, I've reached enlightenment. There is no scum Bingle, only Bingle with a red mason PM and a shared vig.

[Bingle]

I just thought it reminded me of Forport Bingle.

So... The annoyance is genuine.

ngl, I'm having trouble imagining a motivation for scum FG to make a case this weak on me. I think I'm comfortable adding FG to my locktown tier.

[Bingle]

Bingle can you help with this point in particular if you feel inclined?

I'm... not entirely sure what you're asking for here?

Yuri as town is a large priority miselim from a scum PoV. Yuri as scum is in a good position neighborhood wise. I don't think either of these points are a reason to eliminate or avoid eliminating Yuri.

[Bingle]

To put this in my ISO:

Neighborhood 1

Dusa
Yuri
FG
GL
DGB
STD

Neighborhood 2

Dusa
Yuri
A50
UNOwen
Bingle
Titus

Neighborhood 3

Yuri
FG
GL
DGB
UNOwen
Bingle
Titus

Neighborhood 4

A50
Yuri
Titus
STD
GL
Dusa

[Bingle]

OkaPoka's death makes me suspicious of Bingle! Bingle said that OkaPoka could be bad!

Something about the pattern rubs me the wrong way!

Bingle is the type of player who likes to control people's loudness.. I think calling someone bad without reasons, has a way of making that person less important! Killing someone makes them extremely unimportant!

What views in particular do you think scum wanted silenced?

[Bingle]

Heightened suspicion on FakeGod for his vanity wagon on Bingle

Really? I think exactly the opposite. I think it was fairly obvious gamestate wise that a push on me was going no where, so FG pushing specifically me as an alternative to scum tells me it wasn't an effort to save T3.

[Bingle]

So, let's have it out about Yuri. Why do you feel he's town?

Is this an open question or are you specifically interested in DGB's reasons?

[Bingle]

:/

DGB, you're misrepping Bell's reads hard. He wanted me and FG on wagon and his second to last post was about solidifying a townread on me.

[Bingle]

@Titus:

Not_Cupcake

(4): Bingle, FakeGod, AlmostSolo,

Gamma Emerald

Yuri Gagarin (4):

Bell

,

OkaPoka

, UNOwen, HypoTitus

Gamma Emerald

(4): Dusa,

Dannflor

, DrippingGoofball, GuiltyLion
GuiltyLion (2): Yuri Gagarin, Save The Dragons
Not Voting (3):

Not_Cupcake

,

LavarManos

,

TQoobee3

I don't think all 5 scum were inactive at the time of this. If Yuri flips red, that means the only attempted switch to a town wagon on D1 was GL, but there was no real pressure on LM for being lurkscum at that time. GL was the wagon GE was pushing prior to his unvote, but if Yuri is scum he avoided that to unvote into doing nothing.

Further, the case on Yuri is largely that he's been reluctant to go along with Oka's optimizations, and loudly so. It's a bold scum strategy that I don't think is particularly likely. I also don't think the Yuri/T3 interactions read as partner-y (T3 casually calling Yuri scummy and then Yuri focusing on the why so hard instead of just letting the distancing go isn't a move I expect from S/S.) I can link posts if you want, but I don't think it should be necessary.

As an aside, looking through T3's ISO I don't think Titus is scum given T3's scumslip argument and in thread assertion that this is a bus friendly setup (it isn't).

[Bingle]

Monkeys solve is Dusa/yuri.

I think the oka kill was because oka wasn’t seen as a viable mislim, but I will agree that yuri being scum would make it make more sense.

[Bingle]

I tr both of them based on play, but they’re not lock town I guess. My never lim pile is monkey fg gl you in roughly that order.

Did you look at T3’s yuri push?

[Bingle]

I could be down to clown on an uno wagon. I should look at possible partners and we should come up with a designated F3 before EOD though.

[Bingle]

@Bingle, why a designated F3? Even if we could agree on one, wouldn't scum just blow up people in the final 3?

Scum has unilateral control over one more kill, barring town fucking up massively. If we can successfully locktown 3 town players we should be able to avoid a scum majority hood and force autowin.

Additionally, today is the last day of easy communication. Even though we have multiple players who can communicate with every other player, going into phase 2 with some idea of how we're going to approach it. It's also worth noting that deadlines are far shorter post transition.

[Bingle]

Am I wrong?

The scum busses to have a NK.

They have a designated player to carry out the long game. This player might be widely townread.

This is exactly the wrong strategy to have as scum this game. The scumsidedness of the setup is HEAVILY mitigated by early scum eliminations. First of all, the more scum there are when we switch to neighborhood elims the more likely scum is to be able to setup a cascading kill control scenario. Secondly, the NKs being made later in the game make the early eliminations lower information eliminations and thus more likely to be on town. As the setup exists, there is very little benefit to taking the shots early as opposed to late.

Wanting to bus early is maybe a viable strat if scum isn't getting the venges later, but the overwhelming force of having a potential of 5 voices in each hood makes that a lesser concern than just having a bunch of towny voices. Bussing isn't impossible in this setup, but being bus happy is not a particularly good idea.

[Bingle]

VOTE: Titus for now

Tell me more.

[Bingle]

Yuri Gagarin (5): Bell, OkaPoka, GuiltyLion, UNOwen, HypoTitus
Save The Dragons (4): Bingle,

TQoobee3

,

Gamma Emerald

, Dusa
GuiltyLion (3): Yuri Gagarin, Dannflor, Save The Dragons
Dannflor (1): AlmostSolo
LavarManos (1): DrippingGoofball
Not Voting (3): Not_Cupcake, LavarManos, FakeGod

@anyone townreading STD: why? Is it purely on the back of this?

[Bingle]

I want readslists from all of STD/UNO/Yuri/Dusa.

[Bingle]

are you scumreading me bingle? why?

It’s more that I’m not townreading you and a bunch of people are. You’ve been incredibly absent and I think it’s weird that people are locktowning you.

Why are you scumreading me?

[Bingle]

I think there is one scum in Yuri/Uno. They might both be town, but they're not S/S. I also don't think Yuri is scum with STD given that one of the two committing to the bus on GE and the other sticking to the vanity wagon is weird optics even past the clumping of scum votes. Technically, FG/Yuri could be S/S given the defenses from FG, but I really do think Gamma spewed FG town here. Titus/Yuri and A50/Yuri are both hilarious to me. I don't think GL cases Yuri right now if they're partners. GL is already probably capable of endgaming alone, he doesn't need to do that. DGB could be scum with Yuri, as could Dusa. I imagine I'm probably a pretty likely Yuri teammate from an external viewpoint, but I also think I'm pretty obvtown here.

That leaves two potential partners for Yuri scum FMPOV. Thoughts?

[Bingle]

Does Bingle bus all of his team and go for solo reverse sweep?

It's not the way I prefer to play because it leaves me open to "Why isn't Bingle dead" paranoia. I'm capable of it if necessary, as I showed in Fogport.

[Bingle]

Huh. Didn't realize it'd been that long.

[Bingle]

@Titus

yuri is town
a50 is town
gl is town
dusa i think is town
unown i think is town
fakegod is ???
dgb could be scum
bingle could be scum
titus could be scum

I want readslists from all of STD/UNO/Yuri/Dusa.

I posted my reads earlier, but here they are again:

Town:
GuiltyLion
FakeGod
Titus ?
Bingle ??
StD ???????

Scum:
Almost50 ??????
Dusa ??????
DGB ????
Yuri ??

Dusa has dropped into the suspect pool since my last post, GuiltyLion has lost his question marks. Yuri is most suspicious of the suspicious folks.

FakeGod 1000 Darkness
GuiltyLion 725 Darkness
Bingle 550 Darkness
Titus 500 Darkness
Almost50 400 Darkness
Yuri 300 Darkness
DGB 250 Darkness
STD 150 Darkness
Unowen 100 Darkness

[Bingle]

Yuri greenflip means we should go for UNOwen and/or A50.

Why A50?

[Bingle]

Players are stingy with their votes.

Ok.

VOTE: Dusa

[Bingle]

I think there is one scum in Yuri/Uno. They might both be town, but they're not S/S. I also don't think Yuri is scum with STD given that one of the two committing to the bus on GE and the other sticking to the vanity wagon is weird optics even past the clumping of scum votes. Technically, FG/Yuri could be S/S given the defenses from FG, but I really do think Gamma spewed FG town here. Titus/Yuri and A50/Yuri are both hilarious to me. I don't think GL cases Yuri right now if they're partners. GL is already probably capable of endgaming alone, he doesn't need to do that. DGB could be scum with Yuri, as could Dusa. I imagine I'm probably a pretty likely Yuri teammate from an external viewpoint, but I also think I'm pretty obvtown here.

That leaves two potential partners for Yuri scum FMPOV. Thoughts?

I’d like specifically DGB and Dusa to comment on this. Do you think there are other likely Yuri partners?

[Bingle]

If we're using the full length of this day we should be more active and more "inquisitive". Otherwise we're all just procrastinating, aren't we?

I’m waiting specifically for Yuri’s reads. I should also team analysis the rest of the pack, but that sounds like hard work.

[Bingle]

I do not want to guess at Yuri's partners until I know he is bad!

The only association I would be surprised by is GuiltyLion! Otherwise it is just people I don't think could be partnered with Yuri because they are good!

Why should I look for Yuri partners?

Because if there is no one who can be scum with Yuri that makes Yuri town.

[Bingle]

why are you waiting for Yuri reads?

this seems like a very valid question

Does it?

I asked for readslists from all the inactive players, and DGB didn’t really seem to care. Why is my actually wanting the things I ask for more notable than my wanting them in the first place? Further, what are your reads?