Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Enter Raid

I'm here to raid and play forum mafia, and I'm all out of play

[Tomorrow Corporation]

How does one add a 1-shot to a VT?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Romance is a double voter

VOTE: SirCakez

[Tomorrow Corporation]

tictac is mechanically town; just trust me on this one. I'll elaborate on day 4 so hold me to this.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I am a pacifist so I will be opting to glare very menacingly at suspects to intimidate them into speaking.

Menacing glare at SirCakez

I will remove my vote before the hammer to stop any damages claims.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I'm so sick of this raid. I reflected over all the bloodshed and looting and it just isn't for me. Sorry not sorry.

LEAVE RAID

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I'm sorry, everyone. I gave it some thought and the raid has a lot of benefits I'd overlooked. I've tried to restrain myself but it's simply an offer I can't refuse. Ugh, I'll probably regret this later.

Join Raid

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I'm sorry, everyone. I gave it some thought and the raid has a lot of benefits I'd overlooked. I've tried to restrain myself but it's simply an offer I can't refuse. Ugh, I'll probably regret this later.

Join Raid

TC could you please answer my previous question @ you?

-Qrow

I'm a pretty emotional person, yeah. I let the tide take me wherever it pleases and I don't complain. If I have a problem with someone, I'm telling them upfront and I'm not mincing words. Same goes for if I like someone though, if I like you, you'll know it.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Last post was from Tom, this is Susie speaking now:

I like mastina, she's got style and personality.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I'm a doc so I'm happy to save Romance tonight. I'm also not over the fact that I was disallowed from joining yesterday's RAID.

@mod: Et tu, Brute?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Join Raid

Don't test me and make me regret this decision, it's rare for me to have so much resolve in anything, but I KNOW for a fact that I want to be on this raid.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

How about we save each other so scum can't touch us, Sakura?

Or we could randomly save Romance too so it's risky for them to target any of us.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: SirCakez

Let's get these homies on the road.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

What's up, homies?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I'm a VT. I thought I'd claim doc to try and bait the nightkill and protect Romance from being killed. That obviously very quickly backfired when the Sakura CCed...

But I didn't really think a doc would counterclaim in a large game and so haphazardly, why not wait to see whether I live through the night or retract the claim? Well, what's done is done. The gambit didn't really pay off at all.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I've done nothing and had no investment this game, so I thought the easiest way out while being useful was to try and bait the nightkill.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I don't even know who the nightkill was but I'm assuming it's Sakura. Let's go check!

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Oh, never mind.

Maybe scum thought my claim could've been legit then and opted to kill no one in the sacred triangle? (Tom, Sakura, Romance)

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Biggs Vanilla Eorzean

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Sometimes mech clears and borne of

pure vibes

.

tictac gave off such pure vibes that I wanted to clear him mechanically since faking those vibes would make you some kind of mechanical android killer, and there's no way that pure rabbit could be one.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Biggs Vanilla Eorzean

By my current pet theory, mastina checking h1h2 will not confirm this

Not sure what you mean, but if there's a way to confirm my flavour or Biggseyness, please do. Counting on you, mastina.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Tommorow you've lost the right for jokes until you do something useful like making a Readlist.

Okay, how many players do I have to include in the readslist?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Tomorrow Corporation
Romance
Sakura
Bell
Tomorrow Corporation
mastina

Boom

Does anyone dare disagree with any of those townreads?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Sometimes mech clears and borne of

pure vibes

.

tictac gave off such pure vibes that I wanted to clear him mechanically since faking those vibes would make you some kind of mechanical android killer, and there's no way that pure rabbit could be one.

That ISO is off the charts scummy. Dafuq are you talking about?

~R

When you leave the chart, you sometimes wrap back around to being on the chart.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

i am here
VOTE: Mandelbrot
self-similarity is sus

Natural rvs joke.

speculation about possible scum-motivation/demotivation to get on a raid gonna be more useful

after

we see who joins

Reasonable reasons - town mindset.

I'm a meta guy too

do ya have meta on Elsa? just looking for y/n here
pedit: o u answered by ninja

Amiable questioning, encouraging answers.

rce feels more connected/less abstracted than what i remember from scum him, but i may be tring time/exp there.
still would not be my first choice.

Applying meta, rational thinking.

(I don’t actually agree with Elsa FYI but that seems a little bit braver than I’d expect from scum)

i was misreading this as u saying u tr elsa for bravery, whinch would have been backwards.

Um. I'm pretty sure your "misread" was actually what I meant. Why did it feel backwards to you?

Qrow

scum elsa is very much not timid at all.
if anything i'd expect a lot more of the razzle-dazzle from scum-him
is that not ur exp with him then?

Excellent meta application of townniest degree.

vote is cuz disagreed w pretty much entire short iso, and 419 struck me as scummy-complaint to have.

second:

If at least one member of the hostile factions are in the raid group, the said member will decide whether the raid succeeds or fail.

pedit @qrow

Casual tone, townity.

I specifically said "first step" in quotation marks to indicate I wasn't trying to draw an exact parallel, but making a point that in any other game the elim is the first major decision of the game, but here it's raid entry

okay, that's not even where ur quotation marks are..
it's so easily checked, i dont even think u intentionally being deceptive, but I also don't think there was a pause for an introspection and a memory between the accusation and the response. it's like u on some weird autopilot.
the earlier thing was me thinking Raven not being aware of gamestart may be a towntell, and i do still think that, but oh man

Towning.

VOTE: Romance
literally nobody townreads this person

i tr that person, tho i haven't done a re-eval for a while.
also the disengage seems in line with how she was in sign-up thread.

@qrow: sure

Considering evaluations, townity.

There's not much pushback against TC or Mom votes.

It's possible that's because they're being bussed or their team is avoiding associatives in case of flip.

Idk.

I'll be reading the game closer starting on Friday.

- House

Yeah, that’s definitely concerning.

~R

there's kinda a lot of what could be cw attempts for a wagon that's existed for a rl-day. (mom)
dwle(mandelb,AA), AA(dwle,QR,mastina), wheme(thought there was someone trying this, but now i cant find it), QR(Cakes), Cakes(QR)
and defend-via-nullread from Elsa (twice)

townt townt twon

i suppose so, i was thinking in terms of current comp.
I don't really trust you with it, if that is what you are asking.
pedit: @ Qrow

Accusations to the face, no fear city.

hokay raven, here's the case on you.

day 1:
gamma: is familiar of elsas meta yet his day1 posting about elsa gives easy townpoints for stuff that is fully NAI for elsa (bravery, multiball spec). partner-read or attempt to pocket, currently leanin former.
raven: lied about doing an ISO on AA (described process is not how the site works)
day2:
gamma: was ok
raven: huge reaction to me saying I don't trust them doesn't match them insisting they didn't care if they were on the raid or not. said they wanted contributing slots on the raid, but was fully OK with Tomorrow being included, so I'm calling bull. admittedly I dunno what is the scum motivation to be on the raid given, that buddy already on it.
all of her focus on my read on her("what is tictacs threat-level?") and others reads on me("is he mislynchable?"), none of her focus on whether or not I was town ("

should

i be pushing tictac"), given that 2 slots were claiming info-that-makes-me-town, so its super not rocket-science that I in fact am.

TOWN

People taking tomorrowfoo seriously either silly or malicious.

stand by this, and that track kinda wasted.
i don't mind him claiming tho.

Villaging.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Fine, Elsa. I can tell you're not gonna let this go.

Mastina - succeeded first raid and good progressions through her readlists
Bell - hyper and full of desire to find scum
Romance - obvtown and cop guilty
Sakura - doc and pure CC

[Tomorrow Corporation]

TC could qualify as a doc-like to a very loose extent if they are Kan-E-Senna. She is the leader of Gridania, and functionally a White Mage.
Tic Tac and H1/H2 could possibly be Rauhbahn (or Nanamo) and Merlwyb, the Eorzean Alliance leaders of Ul'Dah and Limsa Lominsa respectively.

^i'm in this set

Hi!!!

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: RealCheeks

These two have some real cheek to be posting the way they have been.

I'm obvtown, Elsa. My play makes no sense as scum and I'd also be playing more seriously as scum. I'd have posted around 23 walls and attached a couple of PowerPoint presentations by now.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Gonna be real, I didn't know the benefit of the raid when I was putting myself on. I thought it'd be a nice little outing, like going for a nice little picnic where anything could happen. Maybe it'd give me new powers and I could stop being a VT?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Well excuse us for not knowing which alt you are TC.

Wow, you're excused. This is my main.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Well excuse us for not knowing which alt you are TC.

Wow, you're excused. This is my main.

Then how would we know you care? Why would you say you'd be serious as scum when this is your ONLY game on site? When we got nothing to compare it to?

VOTE: Elsa

I lied tbh and also think your seriousness and reactions are very scummy tbh. You seem way more annoyed than is fitting for your jokey character.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

tbh tbh?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

So you vote the one guy you know you have a chance to counter wagon? Fun. Voting me for trying to take the game seriously? Also fun.

I know nothing of the gamestate, I don't know who else is generally being seen as scummy outside of me.

I've watched all the reactions to my entrance and posts, and I dislike yours the most. Now, is there bias because you're the most vocal about me still being scum... probably, but you're not conceding any points. You're like a toddler who doesn't wanna let go of his miselim rattle because it felt do comfortable and assured.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Does what?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

The gig's up, Elsa. You've gotten away with this tomfoolery for far too long and it's time to die. One does not simply frame lazy play as

scum

play, unless they are scum.

It is written, so it shall be, as it is.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Why is Elsa town?

Dunno.

Your assessment of scum is probably better than mine based on my 20min of enlightenment, so I'll follow you if you gun for someone else.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

That's true, but the scum playing lazy are also usually miserable and you can

feel

that from their posts of seriousness and misery.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

The gig's up, Elsa. You've gotten away with this tomfoolery for far too long and it's time to die. One does not simply frame lazy play as

scum

play, unless they are scum.

It is written, so it shall be, as it is.

... Who even are you?

I'm Bambi... actually kinda hurt you don't recognise me.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

It's okay, Elsa, I'll forgive you in time.

Should I want to be on this raid? It sounds juicy.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Let's just vote for scum and win this for the homies?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Elsa is so scum, as if he actually believes in his 'Tom is inactive scum and Mastina is using the Corporation to endgame with them'

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I caught you which is pretty good.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Yeah.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Join Raid

I call dibs on all the loot.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: QR
the push on me yesterday was whack.
I'm scummy for expressing a conflicted read on them day1, also i hard tr'd them day1 and conveniently flipped on that day2 to accomplish ???
I blocked them from trading places with Elsa yet the mechanism by which I accomplished that feat is super unclear.
(also I'm scummy for ignoring romances quilty when romance asked us to ignore it)
it all hashes out to throwing spagetti at a wall and seeing what sticks.
eg starting from a need to scumread me and looking for reasons to.
(same thing with AA eod1. I now think gamma slipped their motives on 1411)

Here's a theory about what happened day2:
Elsa is not a fall-guy-scum. Elsa is a carry-scum. Him being caught in poe was very bad for the scumteam, but he could not out because then there's nooo scumz in the raid and romance gets a strongwilled result.
Enter bears-plan, and suddenly theres a way to get someone besides Elsa to be the fall-guy. maybe someone better positioned so they get some miseets out of it too. So that's why Raven was so hyped to get raiding.
they actually did intend to use the plan to switch places w elsa, and that is why that is the framing they keep using.
only things got cut short by AA and TC, soo i'm thinking those slots are associative probtown.

also
VOTE: Raid

Looks solid to me, bunny. I want half the cred for this flip.

VOTE: Qrow and Raven

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: Toogeloo

Hang on, isn't this obvscum?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: Toogeloo

Hang on, isn't this obvscum?

Why are you trying so hard this game?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Gotcha.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Nothing about that interaction is unfakeable or nonoptimal for scum.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

How could you tell?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Smart thinking.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: Leave Raid

Although, this is a noble act of towniness... when remaining on could've granted some good will or opportunity to fail the raid.

UNVOTE: Toogeloo

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: ArcAngel9

Vote first, read player later.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Are you Oka or Fire?

Didnt they say they were a kokichi alt.

Nee-heehee~

[Tomorrow Corporation]

RealCheeks is probably town throwing a tantrum but sometimes you need to put down daffy ducks.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I'll protect everyone with my major healing word tonight, so don't worry about dying.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

ArcAngel9, what are your thoughts on Spiffeh?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Wait, do I want to be in the raid? I've always dreamed of being a 1-shot VT though...

[Tomorrow Corporation]

As you all wish. I shall be the commander of the raid and will claim 90% of the loot. Your wages will be fair though and I also offer overtime pay at only slightly reduced rates.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

As you all wish. I shall be the commander of the raid and will claim 90% of the loot. Your wages will be fair though and I also offer overtime pay at only slightly reduced rates.

AHA I caught you. Am I town, tomorrow corporation >:3

I can't just give out reads for free, otherwise this game would be over too quickly.

In this case I will accept your payment. You are decent chances town, now please transfer me ¥210,000 to the allocated account:

Tomorrow Corporation Incorporated Limited
14-19-61
81631983

[Tomorrow Corporation]

ArcAngel9 provides good entertainment value so it'll be sad to see her go...

[Tomorrow Corporation]

It's possible she might be replicating the aggressive defense strategy on basing her reads entirely on how people read her but I wouldn't be surprised at all if she's town.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I was talking to TC.

I find her genuinely hilarious, nothing wrong with that.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: Savethedragons

I'm making a stand, this dragon's tyranny has gone on for long enough.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Well, well, well.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Am I needed on the raid? I can play as a tank and soak up most of the damage.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I cant imagine how much more inactive id be if i rolled scum

I’m gonna stay caught up today

I like tomorrow corp or real cheeks today I should probably reread some pages but really doubt I will

Anyways, VOTE: Whemestar

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Yeah, rereading the Dragon and Wheme I much rather prefer Wheme. Fits the bored and apathetic scum archetype much better.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Yo.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: RealCheeks

I might sheep this.

She was also defending Mystic Bears.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

How many scum are left? 1 or 2?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Can't locktown everyone not on the raid then, a shame.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Hang on a minute, Bell

only

has 370 posts??? Pitiful for a town Bell.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Sakura Hana
Mandelbrot
Mystic Bears
Bell
Qrow and Raven
Dwlee99
mastina

Should probably aim for the scum here actually.

Bell or Qrow....

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Oh, I see.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Don't actually answer that, it was a joke.

Is anyone going to answer me on the "TC was obviously joking, but not obviously enough for Sakura or Bell to realize they were joking and TC themselves said tey weren't doing much and were explicitely gambiting and not joking and hoping for time and space from the doctor to get night killed"

Likewise, I still need an answer on the "why would scum even claim doc out of the blue like that?" I guess the argument being made is that they wouldn't and they were obviously joking. But then we end up where we;re at with the gambit admission contradicting that.

Point being is that while we don't have to kill TC for misgambiting if they're town, or scumming it up if they're scum.

I would prefer the arguments being made in support of them actually reflect TC's own reality rather than your own.

Quality posting, you should've just said this to pocket me earlier, Bell.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

What's the PoE, Panda?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Your PoE.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

1: TC (still doubt the weird posts but can compromise)
2: Bell (least townie of the rest)
3: Tictac
4: Dwlee
5: Cheeks

We have the guaranteed scum in these last 3 as well.

Cheeks I'm leaning town again for their outburst against Romance who was essentially an IC at the time.

Dwlee........................ moving on.

I meme townread tictac this entire game because his avatar is cute but I have no thoughts other than his post count is low.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Elsa's gonna include at least 1 scum in his sus list.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Okay so now people want TC cool and theres a soft guilty i am a god at this game

VOTE: tc

On a more serious note here are my current thoughts

Mastinas posts make 0 sense.
TC is scum.
Tictac is town
I townread Toog but I have paranoia that hes scum
Mandelbrot I TR. At least the house side.
Sakura town
Romance town
Elsa probably scum

IDK whos left tbh but theres my readlist any questions for me. Also sorry toog but I dont really care for being on this raid unless Im needed because we think scum is on it.

My reads are pretty similar to most people so that’s nice

Not getting Romances or Mastinas townread on TC I thought the slot has been scum.

Elsa and cheeks are both viable votes for me

I don’t think I’ll be voting Bell it’s a good sheep read me thinks.

Kind of surprised that everyone was saying that Bell had this creature style meta that led everyone to townread him D1 and now he's suddenly into a bunch of people's PoE.

BIG TRUE

townposts by wheme

like zero effort to get cred from elsa yeet or push elsewhere really, he just kinda hanged out being good with things.
big mood on "i am a god" when there was than soft guilty on CT

give him a little bit of time to catch up at least.

But wait does scum really defend a lost scum friend right at the death... strange.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

We have the guaranteed scum in these last 3 as well.

No?

TC I don't think that's a guaranteed scum lol.
~C

Elsa's a classic busser. He and I go way back to the good old irc chat mafia days.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Why Mystic Bears is Scum

:

1:

Mechanical Speculation

(with a side of POE)

Mandelbrot's proven by role; they're not the scum strongman OR the scum roleblocker. With a third non-RB/Strongman scum role flip, this means they're flatout conftown. No "could be the scum role, in

theory

". They're just outright conftown.
Even if you happen to doubt my role-logic (you shouldn't, because it's literally occam's razor), there's plenty of play-based evidence. Titus lived in spite of having essentially claimed in the PT is one proof of Mandelbrot not being scum; the other is the scum's lack of good fakeclaims also gives credence to the slot being town.
And when you add together the role AND the play, there's fairly compelling reasons to be town both by play and by role.

Toogeloo is, by play, very damn strongly town. The scum wouldn't have botched their flavor claims with Toogeloo as scum almost assuredly, but even had they, Toogeloo's been instrumental in the death of scum in a way that makes Toogeloo just town here.

Bell is, by meta, essentially hard-cleared as town as this isn't Bell as scum.
Qrow and Raven are just as cleared as town for the same reason: Nancy can fake several parts of her towngame but I just don't think she's capable of doing what she's done this game as scum. Plus, Gamma Emerald looks rather town, playing more like I'd expect Gamma-town to in contrast to Gamma-scum.

Which leaves us with:
RealCheeks (RCEnigma + CheekyTeeky)
Save The Dragons
dwlee99
tictac
Mystic Bears (Noraa + Flea the Magician)
Tomorrow Corporation

6 players, to contain the strongman and the roleblocker.

D2 (strong-willed) Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
6. Romance
   
7. tictac
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The scum roleblocker basically cannot be among these names, because if the scum roleblocker were among these names, there was no need to make the raid fail in the first place, and in fact, making it fail would be incredibly detrimental. Which means that the roleblocker cannot* be Dwlee99, tictac, or Tomorrow Corporation.
(*Granted, this is where the 25% on STD not being scum comes from; if Elsa made the raid fail in spite of how detrimental doing so was to the scum, Dwlee, tictac, and Tomorrow Corporation would all theoretically be possible to be scum.)

So the possibilities for the scum roleblocker are:
{Save the Dragons, RealCheeks, Mystic Bears}.
Per the town players being town by play, and the raid poe theory, that means one of those three MUST* be the scum roleblocker.
(*see above)

Then we get to Sakura's theory,

D1 (+1 shot) Final Raid Group

1. Momrangal
   
   
2. Romance
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo
   
9. Bell

One of the players in this raid should be the strongman, as Sakura Hana's theory was that scum used a strongman shot on Mirio N1 and Titus N3 (the latter proven because Titus was bulletproof at the time and could not have died to anything BUT a strongman).
Given the names we know the alignment of in the above, that leaves the

theoretical

possibilities as:
{Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, RealCheeks, Toogeloo, Bell}.

It's not Mandelbrot per the reasons I gave above, of Mandelbrot being conftown by both role AND play.
It's not Toogeloo per the reasons I gave above, of Toogeloo being instrumental in the town's victories thusfar.
It's not Bell per this being Bell's town meta.

Which means the strongman, if Sakura Hana's theory is correct, is precisely within {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks}; yes, this means that the strongman pool is identical to the scum roleblocker pool, just missing from it StD.

Initially, I thought that meant there was a decent chance that per the implications given, {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks} would be our precise scumteam.

However, then I did some extra digging. I'll cover that below, though, after I lay out more of the reasons why Mystic Bears is scum here.

2:

As Scum as Scum Interactions Get

Mystic Bears never voted ANY of {STD, RealCheeks, WhemeStar} yesterday. They defended both WhemeStar AND Elsa Jay. And it gets worse.
Mystic Bears has literally defended

all three

flipped scum.
On D1, I point you to this defense of SirCakez by Mystic Bears, followed by THIS defense of SirCakez made by Mystic Bears, followed by a THIRD defense of SirCakez made by Mystic Bears, with this fourth glorious borderline-TMI of a defense of Cakez by Mystic Bears.

Mystic Bears defended WhemeStar as early back as here, and while in the interim was always posting that Wheme was in the poe (see below for why that in of itself is a damning read progression), never voted Wheme, until eventually, for no reason, doubled down on WhemeStar being town when WhemeStar began to be threatened.

It's not as visible with a control-F of 'wheme', but the slot defended WhemeStar all of D5, too, which y'all should remember.

It gets juicier.

Here we get to Mystic Bears defending Elsa Jay. Mystic Bear's defense of Elsa Jay continues here. Mystic Bears continues to defend Elsa Jay here. And Mystic Bears actually backs that Elsa Jay defense up even. But you don't get stronger defense of scum than this in Mystic Bear's defense of Elsa Jay. But there's more; here's another Mystic Bears defense of Elsa Jay...
...Which also is a post that shows why the defense of WhemeStar is so scum-indicative--look at the treatment of WhemeStar when Elsa Jay was threatened and WhemeStar was under no threat, compared to the treatment of WhemeStar when WhemeStar was under threat (shown above) because we already eliminated Elsa Jay by that point. Here is another hard-defense of Elsa Jay from Mystic Bears that ALSO shows the treatment of WhemeStar before WhemeStar was under pressure (willingness to eliminate him), in contrast to how they treated him AFTER he was at risk of being eliminated (suddenly, inexplicably for no apparent reason, he's suddenly town, in a reversal of the prior read).

And more than that? Mystic Bears has also been voting for the

counterwagons

to the flipped scum. On D5, Mystic Bears didn't vote, but on D4, Mystic Bears voted AA9 instead of WhemeStar.
They also voted Mandelbrot instead of either STD or RealCheeks.
They voted Tomorrow Corporation instead of Elsa Jay.

This post basically feels like a confession, of being scum with both Elsa and Wheme. You might think "Noraa wouldn't do that", but actually, Noraa as scum can and has done precisely this before, admitting to being scum with scum in a way that frames it as being pseudo-sarcastic-eyerolley.

Which is a good segue into my next point:

3:

Noraa is in her scum meta.

This isn't one that I really have evidence to show as it's just the kind of thing that if you know, you know. If you are familiar with Noraa's scum meta, you should know that this is it.

4:

Bonus: SirCakez

I want you to take a good, long look at this post. Go ahead and TRY to tell me it's not SirCakez TMI-distancing/bussing the slot. (I'll cover more on SirCakez below.)

Given all of this.

Even if it weren't for the role POE. Even if you discarded all reads, all reasons for those roles.

I'd vote Mystic Bears just on merit of them being scum.

So whoever is their scum partner, I think they're just scum right now.

Why Save the Dragons is the Most Likely Scum Partner

:

1:

Why I think RealCheeks is town

RealCheeks is the opposite of Mystic Bears--whereas Mystic Bears defended all three scum, throughout RealCheeks's iso, RealCheeks has consistently pushed all three scum. Not just distancing, either--voting scum, even on days when scum wasn't eliminated, even when there were other viable town options to vote.

I will admit; RealCheeks did hard-locked Mystic Bears as town early and often. I'm a bit too lazy to get all the links there.
However, critically, unlike STD who had that read remain the same (see below for that)...by here, RealCheeks has started to sus out Mystic Bears. Which continued here.
While the read then goes back and forth with it being townish, they slide Mystic Bears back to maybe scum here. And have shown continuous willingness to vote there, even stating "go ahead and eliminate us, but after you do, immediately flip Mystic Bears".

If they're scum they basically for the entire game bussed their entire team. While it's not IMPOSSIBLE, bussing literally ALL FOUR partners seems incredibly improbable, and that's why I think RealCheeks is just town here, in spite of the strongman/rb poe being what it is.

2:

The 'secret' scum breadcrumb strat?

STD and Mystic Bears have breadcrumbed being a mystical town PR in basically the same exact way. I was too lazy to do the links to this, but both of them claimed PRs vaguely in a mystical fashion suggesting that they are some sort of town power role that absolutely shouldn't be forced to claim early.

Given how badly SirCakez and Elsa Jay botched their claims, this seems like a deliberate strategy to avoid claiming for as long as possible to make their claims be as good as they possibly can be.

3:

Defense of Scum

STD did defend Wheme back here. Admittedly STD voted Wheme yesterday, but STD had no mention of Cakez pre-guilty and defended Elsa the entire game. (I was too lazy to grab all the Elsa Jay defense links but y'all should remember this as Elsa Jay as town was one of STD's most insistent reads.)

If we take for a given that Mystic Bears is going to flip scum though (I realize this is speculative but seems pretty damn certain),
STD did defend Mystic Bears here.
STD was also defending Mystic Bears here.
This is an explanation of STD's defense of Mystic Bears.
STD called Flea (half of Mystic Bears) town early too.
And STD explained the townread on Mystic Bears here.
There's a mention of Mystic Bears being town here from STD too.
And there was another Mystic Bears-town here from STD.

So STD defended both Elsa hard and Mystic Bears hard. (Admittedly, this loses validity if MB doesn't flip scum but given how sure I am on MB being scum...)

All in all, STD has defended 1 of the flipped scum hardcore, 1 of the flipped scum softly, has zero mentions of the third flipped scum, and has hard-defended a suspected fourth scum.

In contrast, RealCheeks has attacked all three of the flipped scum, not just distancing but actively voting and strongly advocating for their deaths, while also having what appears to be a real actual organic read progression on the suspected fourth scum going from town to scum to town to scum in a way that isn't buddy-indicative to me.

4:

Bonus SirCakez

We've got the good ol' SirCakez bussing/distancing strat for evidence of this. STD was a last-minute addition to his scumreads. I called it out at the time as thinking STD-SirCakez there was scum-scum theater and I agree with past-me's reasons.

Notably, while Mystic Bears was absent from that later scum pool (thus was not SirCakez'd), I would like to again point out this earlier post I feel is damning.

So, uhhh...yeah. I legit think it might just be Mystic Bears + STD.

VOTE: Mystic Bears

You could've just hacked into my account and voted for me.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: Join Raid

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Excellent pagetopping tactics, tictac.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I'm three for three in killing scum; can you trust me on one more, please?

I'm four for four nyeh heh heh~

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Scum's in here:

[Dragon, Dwlee, Qrow and Raven, tictac]

Let's play a connect 4 tournament to settle this once and for all.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

That's what you think. GuyInFreezer, I've held them back for long enough... it's finally time to reveal your main.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Sometimes mech clears and borne of

pure vibes

.

tictac gave off such pure vibes that I wanted to clear him mechanically since faking those vibes would make you some kind of mechanical android killer, and there's no way that pure rabbit could be one.

That ISO is off the charts scummy. Dafuq are you talking about?

~R

You still think so, Dafuq?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

VOTE: QR
the push on me yesterday was whack.
I'm scummy for expressing a conflicted read on them day1, also i hard tr'd them day1 and conveniently flipped on that day2 to accomplish ???
I blocked them from trading places with Elsa yet the mechanism by which I accomplished that feat is super unclear.
(also I'm scummy for ignoring romances quilty when romance asked us to ignore it)
it all hashes out to throwing spagetti at a wall and seeing what sticks.
eg starting from a need to scumread me and looking for reasons to.
(same thing with AA eod1. I now think gamma slipped their motives on 1411)

Here's a theory about what happened day2:
Elsa is not a fall-guy-scum. Elsa is a carry-scum. Him being caught in poe was very bad for the scumteam, but he could not out because then there's nooo scumz in the raid and romance gets a strongwilled result.
Enter bears-plan, and suddenly theres a way to get someone besides Elsa to be the fall-guy. maybe someone better positioned so they get some miseets out of it too. So that's why Raven was so hyped to get raiding.
they actually did intend to use the plan to switch places w elsa, and that is why that is the framing they keep using.
only things got cut short by AA and TC, soo i'm thinking those slots are associative probtown.

also
VOTE: Raid

And you, my dear bunny; do you still feel this way?

I'm reading back on your 1v1 with the Raven and Qrow and I'm not exactly getting TvT powerpoint slides.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

jesus christ

the egg on all your faces

Omelette actually, thank you very much.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Dragon or tictac/Qrow and Raven. Dwlee is excused from the room.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

What makes me doubt the easy Dragon solve is the way he's playing right now. Active but not posting anything of effort or real substance that will get people to townread him, there's no attempt there to look towny. I feel if he was Smaug he'd either give up and post less or actually try and post something to change our minds.

Also:

jesus christ

the egg on all your faces

I'm going to make that post my signature when I flip town

Good posts.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

tictac, remind me of who tracked me that night which clears me?

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Respect, Totus.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

You sure on voting the Dragon? I prefer Qrow and Raven but will defer to your flavour knowledge grand wisdom.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

I am become death, destroyer of crow.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

It is not the mountain we conquer, but ourselves.

VOTE: Qrow and Raven

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Sometimes the wheel turns slowly, but it turns.

[Tomorrow Corporation]

The four building blocks of the universe are fire, water, gravel and tictac.