Consulmaker II: the Pyrrhic War - Game over.

[The Fonz]

Hey guys, it's past midnight here, but I'm going to give you half an hour and then post what I've got after that.

[The Fonz]

Here's my as-we-go thoughts about the first fifth of the game.

Yah, it took me a lot longer than I thought.

So Jack's consulmaker, good to have a decent scumhunter as confirmed town, even though I expect he won't last long.

Primate's ideas about tribunes are basically on the mark. Ideally, I think what you want is players who are opinionated. Those likely to agonise over the decision if town.

Jack upsets me with his criticism of AV Mafia.

Sorry, wtf, a consulmaker counterclaim? So one of them lying, and I can surmise from the first post that it's Jack. I'm going to assume this is uncontroversial, someone let me know if there's any reason not to invoke Lynch All Liars here, though I can't say I can imagine what it would be. - - - Jack.

chesskid, as a newer player and self-described VI, might be excused the self-trib vote. Lowell is not, unless he's completely failed to improve at all in the time since I last played with him (I can't remember when this was, but it was at least a year ago). Guys, the trib vote is a useful source of information. Self-voting negates this, and is also pointless (since Tasky/Nate is in this game, he'll understand the Kantian argument on this). - Lowell

I think they are both probably town, and more that we try to figure out which one of the two is actually the consulmaker we help the scum. A gambit was run for cover, let's use it whilst we still have some ambiguity there.

This is both utter bullshit, and also what I would expect from Primate as town. In my first ever game as scum, Primate was town and fakeclaimed cop to open, so I'm not surprised he's soft on this, but I would like to know what possible protown benefit there is here? I mean, I know Jack's unconventional, but seriously. Probably still + primate though, for consistency with previously-stated beliefs.

I really see no reason why we should not execute one of {Jack, ribwich}. As none of them took their claim back, it is clear that one of them has to be scum.
Since lynching the consulmaker is in no way worse than lynching a VT, we basically have a 50% chance of hitting scum without any drawback. you will never get such a high

a priori

(that is, without relying on scum/town-tells) percentage elsewhere.

You see, it's decent analysis like this in your previous games that made me so convinced your 'I'm a moron' thing in txt was an act. Yes, I'm still bitter. + Nate

Sens' stance makes sense. Wait a day.

I just think it's such a stupid scum play that it has to be town poorly planned town gambit.

That works equally well in reverse. It's such stupid town play that it makes more sense to be a scum gambit, relying on people making this exact argument. Or the GF gambit.

Primate thinking its a gambit is indeed par for the course. Unless I'm misremembering, he fakeclaimed CopGuilty D1 of the first Mini Normal I modded, just for reactions.

Same game I remembered. + Sens for townish use of meta.

In my defense that actually worked out ok and there was only post between me saying it and explicitly saying I was lying. That said, it was still a bad play in the MS environment, and I wouldn't do it again.

It worked out ok if you discount the fact that the premature townie claim it elicited from undo allowed us to identify you for sure as the doc by the third night.

Tonight, if Jack is Consulmaker, he makes ribwhich and someone he thinks is Town the Consuls. If ribwhich is Consulmaker, he targets Jack and someone he thinks is Town. D3, we execute whoever of Jack/ribwhich turns up as Consul tomorrow.

Baaaaad move. THough probably alignment-neutral (good plans tend to be town indicators, but bad ones are neutral, since scum won't knowingly propose plans they know are obviously flawed).

Best-case scenario, the other Consul is Town and we force the Scum to lynch on our terms, or else No Lynch.

If Jack's scum, in that scenario he probably forces through a no-lynch regardless, forcing town to wait a day.

Primate's modification however is a good plan, + Pri.

Just throwing this out there, but we have a limited supply of Roman Citizens, presumably. We can't afford to let the Scum know who the Consulmaker is, if and when the current one dies.

Disagree. There's a limited number of Senators, but if the scum want to kill their way through the VTs to try and get rid of all of them, while leaving the PRs intact, be my f'in guest.

chesskid so far has only been dropping bad player tells, but this of course means he hasn't actually done anything protown either.

98 is much better, however.

102: Rudeness is townish. + Chess


110 is superficially appealing, but reduces the amount of info available to town. The tribunal vote is the one thing the democracy directly chooses. Small - rabies/feysal.

What sens said.

ANYWHO, if the liars wont admit to lying then scum be in there. (The why I dont understand, but).

There's scum in there anyway, but if you're willing to assume a stupid town gambit, why wouldn't you assume a willingness to run with it?

Nate's plan is good, + Nate.

Oh God, a Tasky OMGUS argument. I can see where this is going to go.


Rabies 130: Where did chesskid say it was a scumtell?

136 is a massive + Nate. Mind you, if he can fake an MD post, he can fake this.

Uh yeah, in case we needed any more, Jack 147 is scummy. For one primate didn't say anything about whether it was 'genuine' and secondly, trying to start arguments is pretty obviously protown.

LOL Mert (aka me) 154 is just bizarre.

Primate's been really about as townie as you can be at this point, but the constant self-deprecating shtick makes me wary. As if he's trying to downplay expectations about the quality of his own scumhunting.

[The Fonz]

Nate, if you don't mind, I see your questions but I'll get completely caught up before I answer them.

[The Fonz]

Up to the end of page 15

________________________________________________________

Prozac 176- null at present, but likely to swing one way or another depending on if he actually

uses

this meta.

case three, Jack and ribwich are both town. I am not going to consider this case because in this case one of them is a complete idiot. the only possible way this could be, is if the mod had forced one townie to claim consulmaker. (mod, is there anything bastardly in this game?)

Sensible position, so long as you stick to it. However, I dislike the assertion that the tribune vote is essentially random. It isn't in general, and it certainly wasn't at the point the vote was made.

180: Yeah, Lowell really hasn't improved at all. Mildly interesting that he's still alive right now, actually, as when he's like this he's often lynchbait.

181 is interesting, because the normal reaction to claim-counterclaim is that the counterclaimant is far more likely to be genuine, and Sens hasn't actually given any reason why he believes otherwise.

Ok, 186 is just a headfuck.

Following from the above, a deliberately obtuse Sens is, I recall, one likely to be scum. If you don't act with lynching scum as your primary motivation, less info arises. - Sens.

+ Primate for pointing this out concisely and without hyperbole.


Prozac is not really proactive here. Also, I note that no-one has actually supplied his requested meta, and he's done nothing about it. -Prozac

214 is good, similar reasoning to my own for finding chess townish. + SpyreX

221 is good. Tentative + Sens.

225: Noting scum for tribunal advocacy. Lot of wifom there, but it probably works out to a -.

+ To Nate for not playing Powerrox' BS semantic games. - To powerrox for same, and the earlier lurking.

236: Yeah, of course you're bad at mafia Primate. Totally. No sarcasm here.

I think Sens is seriously underestimating the pain-in-the-assness of wifom resulting from a reprieved scum here.

273: Noting this as it's the first time I actually agree with Jack.

275: Meh, if I'm ever consuled, I'm not vetoing a guy the majority want dead unless I have a very strong town read. In games with governors, people are generally agreed that they should rarely use their power. What's different here?

287: Yeah, go Sens. Be even more of the immature child than he is. - Sens

Yeah, nice pejorative, Sens. Chesskid's style is annoying-noob, but he's clearly trying to scumhunt. His previous list contained some decent reasons (as well as a ton of hyperbole). That doesn't spell VI, stop using buzzwords to try to numb the town to what you're doing here.

307: Yeah, it's also not really that likely to be coming from scum. Get over yourself.

310: Yeah, no it's not. A bit of early-game trolling to elicit reactions never hurt anyone.

HEY CHESSKID, WAY TO LET THE WORLD KNOW YOU'RE NOT THE VIG, MORON.

324 (Scot): Is he an idiot or is he a scum? I'm confused.

Hmmm. I see chesskid's point, the 'I'm not the only one' argument can usually be scummy. But what Sens looks to me like he's doing is pointing out a logical inconsistency in the arguments of those attacking him. If any of the other consul/trib players wanted to lift the pressure on chesskid, they could have done so immediately. That they didn't indicates they didn't want to.

330: It's actually slap in the face level apparent to me that chesskid has actually scumhunted.

Hint: HE THINKS YOU'RE SCUM

- Sens

341: Sens, who criticised whom first?

348: where do we see any omgus? Uh, how about your repeated attempts to kill Chesskid for attacking you?

Katsuki 359: After the fishythefish debacle, I have absolutely no desire to let anyone get away with this kind of shit again. It is not acceptable to not post for 15 pages, then post to say you're not gonna post some more. - - Kat.

367: Yeah, Powerrox is scum. Low content and opportunistic. - - Powerrox.

[The Fonz]

LOL I should really keep the first post open when I readthrough to check that the obvscum I've just pointed out isn't dead town and I'm completely wasting my time.

[The Fonz]

Just five more pages unfortunately, to end p20.

Not really feeling SpyreX's procession of 'Here's an uncharitably phrased interpretation of each of Scot's actions in order.' Scot feels pretty town to me here tbh, and I've seen him as both before.

Yeah, in 379 Jack kinda states two notscummy things Scot has done, and tries to imply he's scum. Calling out lurkers isn't scummy unless it's the only thing you do (which would make you a scummy activelurking hypocrite).

Sens' own confrontational behavior would be townish, if it didn't remind me so much of him in that newbie game where he was scum.

This is about pulling a dick move like trying to get an execution started at the soonest possible time. It was the weekend after Thanksgiving, so there was a good chance a lot of people weren't going to get a chance to see it (notice how activity has been pretty low from the majority lately?)

This is a good point, hard to pick up the timings of things from just reading through the thread, but putting the order in at a time when people are specifically unlikely to be online is sneaky.

Games in which active posters are replaced? The Lowells of the world are kings!!!!

I will catch up in a bit.

My policy lynch spidey sense is tingling. Well, it would be were it not going off overtime already re: Jack.

Likely on the idiot side of that line, since he also hasn't read enough of the thread to realize that I was not trying to have chesskid executed the first time.

This is dishonest. - Sens Kinda like putting someone to L-1 for 'pressure.' You clearly did intend to lynch him at some point while the first execution was pending, what with the veto and all.

I would like Parama to elaborate on the Nate/lining up lynches thing, since I don't see it.

Um, so I forgot about this game.

Can anyone sum up what happened during the voting stage? I remember jack and I think ribwich claiming consulmaker?

In short, does not want to read through chesskid stuff.

SO MUCH NOOBSCUMMINESS... SO LITTLE PAINFUL DEATH. *SIGH*

When you see a modpost saying that "chesskid has been replaced for spamming", one can guess what happened, considering I've played my share of games with him.

Only that post was a few pages ago by the time he said this.

<3 Ribwich, more pressure is applied less dangerously by threatening execution and looking serious, rather than putting in one that's begging the veto. The only way that doesn't get vetoed is the threat of it being missed/Nate getting hit by unexpected V/LA etc.

So Kat is keeping up with the first post, and has time to ISO the mod, but not contributing? I see lurkerscum making excuses.

That's different - just because he's not going to execute you doesn't mean he doesn't suspect you.

However, actually thinking about the game for even a second would indicate that Ribwich was obviously the truthful one. That -Sens.

Partly what Parama said. Partly I realized that you've been much more scummy than Jack.

Really? REALLY?

First of all, you're right. I wouldn't vote you if I wasn't comfortable in having you executed.

Second of all, stop talking about yourself like you're confirmed Consulmaker. There's a higher chance you're Scum than anyone else other than Jack. And if we're going to gamble, it's going to be on you. If we mess up and hit JackTown, we lost a very good consulmaker. If we mess up and hit ribTown, we gain a competent consulmaker.

SCUM. OH SO SCUM.

What about Jack's play in this actual game makes you think he's a competent consulmaker? Also, why are you ignoring the 'counterclaimant is usually the truthteller' thing? And what actually is bad about Rib's play, apart from that he doesn't like yours? At least chesskid was annoying, there's absolutely no good reason for the Ribhate. The only town rationale I can remotely think of here is that Sens is completely letting his emotions and omgus instinct overtake him. But he's better than that.

You do realize that as soon as you (even if you're telling the truth) get executed, another confirmed Town pops up, right?

Which totally makes executing someone who can confirm his town-ness the right move. Yah. It would still be a mislynch.

Abrasive != scummy.

Tell that to Sens re: Chesskid. I've seen abrasive Sensscum, he's a combative player. I'm not aware of a town Sens ever completely taking leave of his senses as he'd have to be doing here.

Except that by explicitly stating this, you are now actively trying to look more pro-town.

This gives me...slight... pause given Reck's confscumness.

472: LOL go spyreX. Not sure it's alignment relevant, but it's spot-on quality of game wise.

Hmmm. Sens' execution order on Kat. On the one hand, it kinda looks like pandering to inHim and the largeish Katwagon, having not really expressed much, if any, suspicion that way beforehand. On the other hand, it

really

doesn't look like a bus, which considering Kat and Sens are my nos 2 and 3 (behind Jack, who needs to be policy lynched ASAP) it means I'm pretty sure I'm wrong on one or other.

Woo, Lowell with an actual opinion.

I frankly don't give a damn about their reasons. Reasons are nothing but a way to hedge their bets. I just want a letter.

This is awesome from a gametheory perspective. Kinda makes me wish you were town.

[The Fonz]

You were talking about Sens, and stating that Sens could suspect Ribwich and not actually want to execute him. However, that would make the pseudovote even more of a waste of space than it was already.

Sens made clear that he did like the idea of dead Ribwich. Mmmm.... BBQ rib. The fact that there wasn't anything remotely approaching a logical reason to actually want Ribwich is dead means I have a big problem with Sens' play in that passage.

[The Fonz]

Right, I haven't got time to do several pages more reading, but I have a short window, so I might as well answer Nate's questions.

why do I get town points for a "decent analysis" which turned out to be completely wrong, while SensFan made a post that "makes sense" and turned out to be the right play at the time (even if he is wrong right now) and doesn't get a +?

Because Sens talks a lot about theory in general, and the point he made was pretty much obvious. Also, I've just seen you pull fake-VI as scum. The fact that you're not doing that inclines me favorably towards you.

excuse my ignorance, what do you mean by GF gambit?

The GF gambit, or Kaleidoscope gambit, is where a player holding an investigation-immune scum role (GF or SK) does something obviously massively antitown, scummy or gambitty on day one in order to draw the investigation which will 'confirm' him. I've seen it a couple of times.

chesskid so far has only been dropping bad player tells, but this of course means he hasn't actually done anything protown either.

do you have something specific you would attribute more to a bad player than to scum?

It's more that I don't see anything scummy at all. He appeared to be making an effort to spark discussion, poking at people, and so on, and that's generally townish. His posts however had the feel of the poor player.

What I liked about post 98: simply that 'Why vote for an obviously poor player/habitual lurker' is a good scumhunting question.

110 is superficially appealing, but reduces the amount of info available to town. The tribunal vote is the one thing the democracy directly chooses. Small - rabies/feysal.

if he is scum, do you think he proposed something you called anti-town on purpose?
doesn't this - (minus) contradict your previous statement about alignment-neutral "bad plans"?

Yes, it does really, which is why I made clear 'Small minus.' This just felt, on a gut level, as if it

might

be a sneaky attempt to push

LOL Mert (aka me) 154 is just bizarre.

would you have found this post scummy if it weren't your predecessor?

Weird question, because it's kinda hard to separate my reaction to it from the fact that I never saw it from a perspective other than knowing it's from a town player. Clearly, I don't agree with it. I guess I would probably have found it odd/a little scummy on first glance, and maybe even tried to put a little pressure there, but I think I'd fairly quickly come to the conclusion that rampant paranoia when faced with weird gambitting is, if anything, townish.

A question, who do you think is more likely scum: Parama or scotmany?

I've got both as pretty town, and I'm not sure splitting hairs between them at this juncture is helpful. Though bear in mind I've not gotten to a point in my read where Parama is really into the swing of things yet.

[The Fonz]

Sorry, I left my sentence unfinished re: Rabies. Just felt it

might

be an attempt to push something scummy under a cover of reasonable-sounding argument whilst hiding the scummy aspect.

[The Fonz]

To the end of Day One

More 'I haven't read, and yet I know broadly what's going on' stuff from Kat, plus a premature claim. Oh goody.

And I'll make sure it's vetoed.

This was regarding Reck's threat to execute Dramonic. Was this caused by a townread on Dram, a scumread on Reck, both or something else?

It takes about 2 seconds to read that sens is the one executing me.

It's more the 'Sensfan of all people' stuff. To post that, you'd have to know that something had happened with Sens which might make people disregard his opinions. Sorry, 'opinions.'

ribwich 521 is dumb, because the Senator PM includes the word townie. Of course, rib didn't get that pm so it's marginally justifiable, but still.

I don't like, at all, how Feysal's intro post is to talk some more about an already-settled game theory issue rather than give preliminary scum/town reads based on whatever he's got. - Feysal

Yeah, I'd totally have been baying for Powerrox' blood if I were in the game at this point. If I weren't baying for Kat's. Man.

535 (Feysal): I don't get why lynching someone for lurking is automatically a mislynch or indeed a bad thing at all, but at least Feysal's taken a stand, which makes me feel better about him. + Feysal It occurs to me that scum in this situation would probably bus terrible-looking team-mate, so it's unlikely Feysal/Kat are both scum: either Feysal is sincere, or he's distancing himself from a mislynch that he thinks is probably going to go through anyway.

539: Feysal is a VI apologist. Annoying, but worth knowing.

546 by rib reminds me that, even if you are unwilling to lynch Jack for his gambit, he's a lurker. Another -Jack

Lowell pops in with another post completely unrelated to who's scum.

554: Unsure. It makes no sense for the scum to kill a consulmaker unless he's glorkesque, so you're weighing the information gained from a wagon on a conftown versus the utter waste of time spent on the wagon and the possibility that we might have to rush-execute someone at the end of a day. Incidentally, this relates to why your calling for a riblynch was scummy. The purpose of conftown is to avoid a mislynch. If the c-maker power transfers to someone who would otherwise have been lynched, great, but it might transfer to an obvtown.

559: Aaand you're still doing it.

Note Jack advocating for Powerrox over Kat.

Granted, these could be interpreted as slips, but I've seen Katsuki do worse and still be town. I'd like to think that if we had less lurking from so many players and more talking, we could find something stronger to go on. There is a kind of opportunism at work here. Since most of the players are lurking, the scum can blend in with the town lurkers. With everyone tired of the long day and the inactivity, all the scum has to do is wait for someone to slip up, most likely town, and let that someone be mislynched. Katsuki would be perfect for this.

Now this confuses the hell out of me, because your premise seems to be that when town lurk, scum will do so. I agree with this. However, the implication is both that lurking is bad, and that scum are likely to be doing it. 'Seen far worse and been town' is kinda OKish, but the logic of your argument seems to favour lurkerlynching, so why is Katsuki so bad?

Ah, I see that you come over kinda resigned after that.

Point about contradiction between Sens' stated aims and his actions is a good one and looks like real scumhunting.

Hmmm and now Jack's trying to dissuade Feysal's townread on Kat. Despite the fact that he ostensibly prefers Power. Not sure what to make of this.

Nate's save of Kat and attack on Parama is... unnnh. I've got like a million mutually contradictory possibilities going through my head.

586: Parama, is this a 'too blatant to be scum' argument?

What pro-scum reason would there be for lying about being consulmaker?

Lots.

[The Fonz]

Day Two analysis

I apologise I missed the last day, I totally forgot I was in this game.

- Prozac for obvious reasons.

It really doesn't matter today, since I'm pretty sure Jack is the lynch regardless, but I think we should think about whether we want a claimed Consulmaker as Tribune. Seems like that's putting an awful lot of power in one person's hands to dictate the lynch.

You mean, puts a lot of power in the hands of someone you spent half of yesterday attacking for no good reason, amirite?

Sens' theory opinions here feel incredibly convenient.

Yeah the picks could've been better (scot as consul? Really???)

I'm really, really not seeing anything scummy about Scot. This is kinda baffling.

Noting Reck's use of the 'too scummy to be scum' defence of Jack.

OK guys, I'll give you credit, at least it took 646 posts for someone to come out with the dumbass jester speculation.

657: Hey SpyreX, can you elaborate on this? Why do you think chamber was NKed?

Primate: I assume by 'run cover' you mean try to draw the NK and protect the real one? What is the value of that in this setup?

I seriously hope no-one gets taken in by this pile of scummy self-justifying blather.

Watch and learn:
Jacktown claims consulmaker to cover for the real consulmaker and try to attract a kill as a VT.
Ribwichtown the idiot ccs because he is unable to process this simple thought process and ruins the entire point of Jack's claim.

HATE.

Town should nearly always CC when someone claims their role, because it's so overwhelmingly likely the player is scum. It's been proven over and over that faking power as VT is horrible play, and Jack is not such a dumbass as to not be aware of this- quite the opposite in fact. Also, if ribwich did not cc, and later got run up, he's kinda in the shit, isn't he?

Nate case is charitably regarded as an exercise in massive confirmation bias, and less so as bullshit.

Thank God chesskid was obvtown.

right now I think Jack is nully, but I think he did a really bad move if he really was town.

Nothing's really changed from when you said 'If he's lying, he's scum,' apart from that he's actually been caught lying. - Nate

705: What was that with Sens saying he wouldn't accept 'I woulda vetoed, but...' arguments yesterday?

The predictable rounding on Nate for OMGUS appears to be happening.

Prozac 719 is waffly.

724 is stupid: If Jack needs to die at some point, it is absolutely better that it happens sooner rather than later.

Looks like I'll have to ISO read both dramonic and reckoner next. On my first read, I had a slight town feel from dramonic and mostly neutral on reckoner.

How to remarkably hedge your bets on bussing scum.

Katsuki position, I continue to admire the bravery of it whilst being annoyed at the stupidity. Feysal, given your apparent opinion on Kat, can you name any specific thing she could have done that would have made you see her as scum?

741/4: I hate any argument predicated on whether or not it should have been obvious X was joking. See: Lost Boys mafia.

Faking a post restriction is scummy, since it can allow you to get away with less content. However, this is not a fake post restriction, it's more like minineko's trademark 'meow' at the end of every post.

Lowell hedges on Jack and again says nothing about who else might be scum.

763 (Spyre) nails it.

It's not that Jack shouldn't die; it's that using Jack's non-death as an excuse to do nothing is anti-town.

Yeah, because it's only antitown to do nothing if you've got an exc... oh, wait.

There is also the fact that we have no explanation why scum would make such a move.

OK. READ FUCKING CAREFULLY.

1) Scum are informed, town are not. Therefore, they may well be some wrinkle scum are aware of and I'm not.
2) If not CCed, Jack is able to benefit from additional influence, and freedom from attack entirely. This removes the 'do we bus' quandary from his buddies.
3) If he

is

counterclaimed, this causes town to waste an absolute ton of time discussing how to resolve the consulmaker issue, during which time they are not scumhunting.
4) Offering himself up as an early bus to his team-mates, and handing out a couple of mislynches because there's always going to be SOMEONE who bites on the wifom.
5) The usual benefit of outing as many town roles as possible as early as possible.
6) The Kaleidoscope gambit.

Sens; so scummy early on, yet so right right now.

[The Fonz]

I'm surprised dramonic was scum. Bussing that hard is a bad strategy when you might get made consul and have to follow through.[/quote]

If you were town, you'd see the possibility that Dram wasn't expecting to have his bluff called because he was expecting an easy execution of you.

Hi. It's about time I dropped by, and we have a new player too. First to make some replies.

Hi guys. I mostly ignored D1, but read D2.

...

People who strike me as scum:
Feysal
SpyreX
scotmany12 (this one's shakier than the others)

Shame about SpyreX being a consul today, IMO. Can't say I really like either of those choices.

Nathaniel gets buddy-buddy points for vetoing my slot's execution (three times, yay!)

If you're awarding Nathanael town points for vetoing your slot's execution, and you have me in your scum list, there is clearly something wrong. Right there... you said you ignored most of day one. I replaced in at the end of the day, and had some words to say about Katsuki's impending lynch. I suggest you read it, and all of day one for that matter.

Hmmmm. I get a vibe of 'Hey dumb noob, pay attention to how I buddied your predecessor!' here.

Ehhhh, caught up to my own entry.

^I am not thinking he is town BECAUSE of it. I just said we should judge him ON EVERYTHING ELSE, i.e. maybe he is town DESPITE the gambit or scum DESPITE the gambit.

Take away the gambit (as if you can take away the most significant thing someone's done) and I find Jack's been markedly less proactive and effective than I've seen in the past. But the fakeclaim is absolutely scummy.


So, overall thoughts:

Jack needs to die. Lynch All Liars still applies.

Sens and Magua are the next scummiest in isolation, but I really don't see them as buddies, so at least one is probably town in spite of their play. Also don't see [Feysal^Magua].

Prozac and Lowell are scummy looking undercontributors, and I'm not willing to give a meta pass on this. I think there's a real danger of town turning in on itself based on different outlooks and letting scum lurk through. If there's a Leon Belmont replacement, he'll have to prove his worth pretty quickly too.

Parama has done a couple of dodgy things, and if it were just him I'd have him as a secondary suspect, but it isn't, and chesskid was obvtown. (Town convinced Sens is scum trying to goad SF into killing him, and making SF look scummier, makes sense: scum begging for death doesn't really. Extension of rudeness is protown).

[The Fonz]

ribwich 521 is dumb, because the Senator PM includes the word townie. Of course, rib didn't get that pm so it's marginally justifiable, but still.

would you see rib's post as scummy if he wasn't confirmed town?

Again, same caveat as with my predecessor, but no, that's why I called it dumb rather than scummy.

[The Fonz]

Sens, you're not voting tribune. Can you support a Scot or Fonz tribwagon?

[The Fonz]

(In case anyone is unclear on that, my no1 priority for tribune is someone who will not veto Jack).

[The Fonz]

1) Scum are informed, town are not. Therefore, they may well be some wrinkle scum are aware of and I'm not.

this is extremely unlikely, considering that this isn't a bastard game and ribwich has been outed for 2,5 days now without anything bad happening.
also, it wouldn't match with the overall mechanic.

In the original consulmaker, the SK was completely screwed by a GF mechanic he hadn't anticipated.

2) If not CCed, Jack is able to benefit from additional influence, and freedom from attack entirely. This removes the 'do we bus' quandary from his buddies.

not true. the real consulmaker can choose to CC as soon as he sees that Jack is trying to abuse his power. besides, scum will never hope for this, because it is obvious they will be counterclaimed.

You're acting like it would be obvious Jack was abusing it. Not everyone is Sens.

3) If he

is

counterclaimed, this causes town to waste an absolute ton of time discussing how to resolve the consulmaker issue, during which time they are not scumhunting.

I grant you that scum has a small advantage here. but even while discussing the consulmaker issue a lot of reactions, stances can be made. especially day one, when most of the posts are spam, having something (even if only marginally connected with scumhunting) to discuss on is almost as good as out-of-the-blue-scumhunting. so this holds little value to scum if you consider this correctly

I just disagree. Time spent discussing plans and suchlike is rarely productive: see Spyre's 'Just fucking pick one and get on with it' diatribe.

4) Offering himself up as an early bus to his team-mates,

this point is stupid: first, a bus like that would give almost no towncred to a scum bussing. if the plan was to bus Jack, not having him attract the attention with a fakeclaim first would have made the town-cred reward much bigger for the bussing scum. second, planned bussing this early is rarely a good play for scum. sometimes scum have to bus or think it is strategically good if the buddy they are bussing is weak or in risks to get into a tight spot anyway. it is however better to avoid bussing if possible. No scumteam, imo, would go into day 1 with the plan to bus one of their members.

Several games' worth of experience beg to differ.

and handing out a couple of mislynches because there's always going to be SOMEONE who bites on the wifom.

this also makes no sense. how do you think attracting the attention to a scummember makes it easier to mislynch someone? if someone is a weak target, correct strategy for scum would be to go after them right away, instead of a) risking a scum and b) shifting away focus from the designated target.

Scumbuddies, because they know what the flip will be, are able to position themselves to look town as a result of it. Town, being uninformed, will likely see at least a couple of members act in such a way as to make themselves look hella scummy.

5) The usual benefit of outing as many town roles as possible as early as possible.

what value does 5) have for scum?

OMG, you are kidding me, right?

6) The Kaleidoscope gambit.

I think this is highly unlikely too. yes, it is a possibility but a) it risks one of the strongest teammembers (a GF), b) it is very very rare. I think this possibility can be disregarded.

The strength of the GF is in his investigation immunity. This gambit plays to that strength. Also, rare, but no so much that it can be disregarded.

so, we have seem almost all of your points don't bring any significant advantage to scum, and this extremely small advantages still have to be weighted up against the likely possibility of being lynched on the spot or a day later.

Except that it's NOT THAT LIKELY at all, because SOMEONE ALWAYS, ALWAYS MAKES THIS KIND OF ARGUMENT YOU ARE TRYING RIGHT NOW. Look at the situation I'm in right now with trying to push Jackscum. Does this really look that easy to you?

Sens; so scummy early on, yet so right right now.

do you still think Sens is scum? would you be comfortable with his lynch? Would you actively try to achieve it?

Read the damn post. It's more than clear where I stand on Sens: if Jack weren't here, I'd be torn between Sens and Magua. I wouldn't veto either, but I'm not entirely sure which I'd actively push.

[The Fonz]

Vote: The Fonz

And Tasky, before you start, it's quite clear who I'd be voting if I weren't voting myself, and I'm more viable than him.

Preview edit: Not really. People who try to pull the kind of shit Jack's doing are so overwhelmingly often scum, AND I have a scum read on him even absent the gambit, and Sens has a history of supporting LAL so would likely get caught if he didn't, whether or not Jack is his buddy.

[The Fonz]

ok, how about we lynch Jack as soon as there is any evidence scum have any advantage from knowing the consulmaker?[/quote]

So we lynch Jack when town gets the informed minority's information?

.

don't misrep me. abused = do anything ribwich thinks is scum-motivated. don't forget that Jack can't use his "confirmedness" at all, since he knows there is someone out there who can bust it any moment.[/quote]

I'm not misrepping you. How is it going to be clear early on what is and isn't scum-motivated?

Several games' worth of experience beg to differ.

this feels like plain appeal to authority to me. might EXPLAINING your stance instead of just arguing your superiority?

How exactly am I going to argue against your assertion that you don't see scum doing it other than to point out that I've actually seen scum do it really quite often? Heck, you saw Reck and Dram come out the gate with a big bus IN THIS GAME.

Isn't this true for EVERY situation in mafia? isn't this what the whole game is all about?

When it's a scum engineered situation, it's easier for them to manipulate it than if it's one that's come about as a surprise to them because a town player did something unexpected.

a) how is such a gambit supposed to out any powerrole besides the consulmaker? b) how is outing the consulmaker any good to scum considering your stance I quoted?

It's not necessarily designed to out any OTHER roles. But knowing whether the cmaker is malleable to your ends is useful, and every single outed town role helps narrow down the power role candidates.

just because something is possible, it doesn't mean it is probable. this is quite a common logial fallacy.

Tell me where I actually used that fallacy you're accusing me of? It's happened before, it would perfectly explain Jack's behaviour, therefore it has to be considered.

Well, it is likely. don't forget Jack owes his life to ribwich's action, which was absolutely not likely in any way. ribwich's action was quite a surprise to everybody and this shows that the

likely

outcome of yesterday should have been a Jack-lynch.

Really? Because every time scum pulls something like this, there always seems to be a large bloc who take your line. I don't think it was in any way unlikely a priori that one of them got into one of the four positions that could veto his death.

Also, please don't forget the extremely unlikely scumconnection Jack-dram-xreckx

How unlikely, exactly? We already saw Dram is bushappy.

@Scot: I understand that, but I feel I have to defend MY stance, too. Just because Nate isn't a swing voter doesn't mean there aren't any.

[The Fonz]

LOL just noticed that excepting Ribwich himself, Nate is the LEAST SCUMMY person on the rib tribwagon.

Basically, it all boils down to this. People who lie about their roles absolutely do not get the benefit of the doubt, ever.

SpyreX, if you oppose a Jack lynch, why do you support me for trib?

[The Fonz]

Woooah, Woah.

I don't 'oppose' a Jack lynch. I'm talkin about it. I'll kill him without hesistation.

You really, really don't think he's scum with dram and reck but you'll kill him anyway?

[The Fonz]

Nate, frankly I can't be bothered getting bogged down in this. He lied about his role; scum do this. Arguing minutiae is just going to get me frustrated for no good reason.

I would like to know, however, where I said that outing the consulmaker is valueless for scum. I said KILLING the consulmaker is bad for scum, unless the consulmaker is a very good scumhunter (hence my thought that Jack would die early when I initially thought he was CM: Jack is a very good scumhunter when he wants to be, ie isn't scum like here). Knowing the consulmaker could be useful to scum precisely so they don't waste a kill on him. Also, why should I assume that scum value the information in exactly the same way I do?

[The Fonz]

Hmm now that I'm rethinking... there's probably 2 scum left, maaaaaybe 3 but it's less likely, so the scum probably aren't voting together on the tribune wagon.
So Jack probably isn't scum since Nathanael is.

4 scum out of 21? Very unlikely considering the first two flipped goons. Five is more likely, gets you closer to the usual 25%.

[The Fonz]

Thought someone said 21 earlier. My bad for not checking something very easily verified. I'd still lean five (especially if there's an SK), but your argument is more convincing than I first thought. If it's two groups, it's almost certainly 3-3, I would have thought.

[The Fonz]

Hey Nate, could you explain your suspicion of Porochaz?

Parama, six scum in competing groups in a 19p is absolutely not unbalanced. After all, 8-2-2 is more townfriendly than 9-3. I can dig out multiple twofold games to prove this if you wish.

[The Fonz]

There are at least four players I'd sooner see dead then Nate at this point.

[The Fonz]

Glad you're not consul then.

No, but unless someone makes a good case why Nate, who is making arguments, asserting positions, risking unpopularity, and generally looking like he might be scumhunting, is scummier than all of the following:

1) Jack
2) Magua
3) Sens
4) Lowell
5) Prozac

You can guess what I'm going to do.

[The Fonz]

Sens, basically:

Your D1 play was hugely scummy, and your 'Look how willing I am to do controversial things! I must be town!' act felt forced. If you look at what I've actually said, it's less that you look better- there's nothing really solid to redeem you that I've seen- I just happen to agree with your game theory stances on Jack. But you're smart enough to know that you can't completely diverge from your meta as scum. Day two really didn't throw up that much of much interest apart from showing where everyone stood on Lynch All Liars, and it's not like, other than the Jack situation, you've done any scumhunting that's really wowed me.

On the other hand, there's also the factor that I really don't see Sens/Magua, so my individual scumread on at least one of you has to be wrong. Bearing that in mind, there's no reason not to work with you on those issues where the positions you are taking seem to me to be townfriendly, regardless of whether they're genuine or simply convenient.

[The Fonz]

Prozac case

Thanks. I agree, by and large. It's just that I saw him in your little scumlist, and couldn't actually remember you particularly trying to make a case on him, which set my distancing sensor off.

[The Fonz]

It's the combination of our little back and forth in that newbie game a while back, and the fact that you said earlier in this thread that you loved policy lynching or suchlike. Also, I read a recent game of yours where you advocated LACM, and that's a much more... controversial meta stand than LAL. So when I saw you pushing a LAL lynch, it seemed in character.

[The Fonz]

Lynch All Claimed Millers. IIRC, you're pretty much the only one who agrees with me on it.

[The Fonz]

I had a recollection of you saying the best thing was for them to claim D1 and then be lynched anyway. Or have I got you mixed up with someone else?

[The Fonz]

On the other hand, there's also the factor that I really don't see Sens/Magua, so my individual scumread on at least one of you has to be wrong. Bearing that in mind, there's no reason not to work with you on those issues where the positions you are taking seem to me to be townfriendly, regardless of whether they're genuine or simply convenient.

could you please explain on what basis you don't believe in a Sens/Magua scum connection? I suppose it is related to the Katsuki execution, but do you have specific posts that make you think it couldn't have been bussing?

Given the timing and nature of Sens' execution post- there was a growing clamour for Kat's lynch, though not yet a majority. Sens, who'd made this big fucking deal about how he was his own man, turned around and put in the execution, even though he hadn't really expressed much suspicion in that direction. This was very scummy, but it looks a lot more like a scum going for a cheap mislynch than a bus. Kat wasn't the only lurker, and Sens had laid the groundwork to defy the will of the town if it were in his interests.

Also, what do you think on the Sens-Jack connection? ignoring individual scummyness how likely do you see them being scum together?

The push for the lynch makes it ever so slightly less likely they're together, but not by much. If Jack has more than one living scumbuddy, I would probably expect one to be anti-jack and one pro-jack. If Sens isn't the consistent policy lyncher I thought he was, then maybe that affects this... a little.

As for the Dram/Jack/Reck thing, consider the likelihood Dram simply wasn't expecting to be made consul. Maybe he'd hoped to sit there in his little staged fight, and by that token avoid really commenting on much of the game. Then he gets empowered. He's basically got no choice BUT to execute one of Jack and Reck, because if he goes with someone other than a) the overwhelming town consensus choice or b) the player he's been attacking all day for really flimsy reasons, he's basically outing himself as scum, because there's no way he can pull that off. He was backed into a corner, basically.

Heck, if he's scum with Reck and without Jack, it probably makes more sense to go straight for the Recksecution, because it almost certainly gets vetoed, and then let the town have its Jack lynch.

[The Fonz]

Sens, I've found the game in question: Scummers Mafia Greatest Bash. SpyreX claimed miller, and you immediately voted him.

The quote that stuck in my mind was this one:

To be clear, if Spy really is a Miller, claiming was 100% correct.
He still needs to go. It's just way too convinient a claim for Scum to be able to dodge Cops all game long.

[The Fonz]

Mag, you say that mafia wouldn't fakeclaim like Jack did if there were a second faction. Well, uh, looking really weird and gambitty is sometimes tried by town PRs trying to avoid NKs- I can remember Glork doing this- why not a scum or SK trying to avoid crosskills?

The important point here is for all these scenarios you're trying to point up as absurd and detrimental to the scum in question's win condition, doing what he did as town is at least as detrimental, with minimal upside.

I have to say though, that I REALLY don't think a second scumgroup is that likely with this flavor. I still think the most likely thing is that there's one scumgroup and he's in it.

[The Fonz]

Question for you: So you've got a fairly long list of people you think aren't scum. Who do you think is scum?

My top suspect is Parama, and I don't much like Porochaz either. I wrote something of a case on Parama earlier, and while I have none on Porochaz yet, I will be taking a closer look at his posts soon. There is SensFan also, I need to think over my stance on him,

and Lowell the lurker.

Now this is kinda amusing to me, because Lowell is infamous on the site for his meta of lurking and uselessness, much more so than Katsuki (can you post one of the games where she was 'much worse' btw?) So you've given your own personal acquaintance VI a pass and then gone straight for the one you don't know.

It's kinda my impression that once someone manages to get him or herself put into the box labelled 'VI' or 'Lurker' people will let them get away with almost anything. That said, my memory may be playing me up, but I have the impression that lowell is EVEN WORSE than usual here. His ability to go a long time without posting, then pop up immediately Jack suggests his lynch without anyone having time to post in between indicates that he's been reading the thread and is doing this deliberately.

I find that players who manage to lurk through and not get called on it tend to be more likely scum, since scum has ample ammo to get them wagoned if they so wish. And that fits Lowell to a T... right up to this page. Hmmm.

[The Fonz]

check out Stars Aligned III and look for El Goosuki. They were a hydra of Ellibereth, DrippingGoofball and Katsuki.

You know who DrippingGoofball is, right? I don't think a hydra involving DGB is valid meta for anything. When you were talking about Katsuki being herself, and that she'd done far worse as town, I was under the impression that you had at least one, and probably more, completed games with her as town in which she did absolutely nothing useful.

Sens: don't you think if Lowell made more effort to be useful and find scum than is customary for him, that would make him more likely to be town?

Also, do you see Feysal more as misguided town, defending a scumbuddy, or buddying up to a poor town player?

[The Fonz]

^

Which must be noted, IS NOT TYPICAL OF JACKTOWN AT ALL.

[The Fonz]

OK, I just did a quick meta of a couple of old Kat town games. Her posting is incredibly fluffy, but she tends at least to take firm positions on who's scum and use her vote to back them up. She was also at one point called stupid and newbish

by Furcolow

which I quite enjoyed.

[The Fonz]

If you have no completed games, then you have no meta.

FYI, DrippingGoofball is known for being, essentially, insane. I can't really speculate about that hydra though, cause it's an ongoing game and those are not acceptable sources of meta.

[The Fonz]

Though ribwich, I've got at least three or four like this. Sens isn't making it up.

Also, it was one ONGOING game, in a hydra, therefore no value whatsoever. 'I've seen her do much worse before and be town' seems to me to be categorically untrue.

[The Fonz]

Here's an old Lowell game.

[The Fonz]

This is a good example of him playing like this.

This is one where he was slightly better, but still displayed a lot of the tendencies he has here.

[The Fonz]

If you have no completed games, then you have no meta.

I don't, not in the sense that I'd had opportunity to compare Katsuki's town play to her scum play. I have witnessed her uselessness in two games though, and this gave me some idea of what sort of player she was (Nathanael mentioned the other game earlier).

If neither is completed, neither are admissible.

FYI, DrippingGoofball is known for being, essentially, insane. I can't really speculate about that hydra though, cause it's an ongoing game and those are not acceptable sources of meta.

I see. I don't have any completed games though, so I'm using what I've got, even if they're ongoing games and only useful to myself

No. Making reference to ongoing games in other games, MD, or anywhere else for that matter, is against site rules.

[The Fonz]

You see, Feysal, I can't engage with your comments, discuss whether those games are valid representations, talk about how much of the hydra I actually think was Kat, the difference in circumstances between here and the other games or any of the other forms of meta analysis and discussion that are needed to put meta into context without breaking the rules myself.

[The Fonz]

To quote Lowell from an old game:

Here's why the vote on me is dumb. Can I meta me a moment?

Sometimes (particularly early) I don't post as much as others, so even when I'm obvtown (this game) it's popular to say "well, I'd better say how I think lowell is scum for not contributing, since certainly everyone else will!" Then I end up getting lynched even though no one really thinks I'm scum ever, they just think they should think I'm scum. Got it?

In particular I tend to draw scumfire for this reason. Scum want to lead the charge in pointing out my scumminess just to prove how OMGtown they are. Townies usually have the sense to follow their actual convictions and not the percieved convictions of others.

See, my suspicion of Lowell here is largely founded on the fact that

this hasn't happened.

Just about everyone has seemed perfectly happy to let Lowell get away with his usual schtick right up until now. One of the better ways to read minimal-content types is to see how others act towards them, and there's no indication of people trying to scapegoat Lowell for his undercontribution here.

[The Fonz]

Right, but you could have done that without making reference to ongoings, and meta comments which were imo misleading... I just feel like Kat is town, etc.

[The Fonz]

Spyre: are you seriously acting like it is in the slightest bit unclear who I think should be killed today?

[The Fonz]

I want you to execute Jack. I also want you to do it straight away, so that we don't waste another day talking about Jack and then see it vetoed and find ourselves scrambling to find another lynch acceptable to everyone with veto power with deadline pressing. If Primate or Ribwich feels strongly enough that Jack is town that they're willing to veto it, then doing so quickly frees us up to discuss other options.

On that note, where IS Primate?

@Lowell: If you want Jack dead, why did you vote for ribwich as tribune, given that his major accomplishment so far has been vetoing Jack?

[The Fonz]

Waive my right to veto the above.

[The Fonz]

LOL at Jack trying to make out that the Rexecution had ANYTHING to do with him.

[The Fonz]

I think the problem is more NOT dead that night, actually.

Look, Jack might be town. Nothing really surprises me in this game. But I can't see any decent town motivation for his gambit nor his lurking, and in the absence of discernible town motivation, I assume scum. Not to mention, even if he's town, do you really want this distraction to drag on any longer and Jack continue to dominate discussion for another day?

[The Fonz]

Lining up the lynches is such a BS argument. It's almost as bad as 'Too defensive.'

[The Fonz]

Ah. Well Magua, I obviously agree that Sens' push on ribwich is scummy, but it ain't 'lining up the lynches' at all. Lining up lynches isn't a real scumtell, but suggesting a lynch of a guy that no town player in their right mind would want dead that day is.

@Fonz: Primate and Parama both repeatedly say that they think both ribwich and Jack are town. Do you think that they're wrong? What information do you expect to get if Jack flips town?

1) Yes. 2) Kind of depends on whether Primate chooses to veto, doesn't it? I'd rather talk about what we know after the flips... y'know, after the flips.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Scotmany12

Hey Nate, you might want to explain why, despite repeatedly stating in bold that the roleclaim was null, you consistently had him as town, or one of the townier players in the game, even though he wasn't really doing anything else that looked townish. Also, why when his lurking was pointed out to you, you moved him from 'town' to 'null' despite the fact that the implication was that lurking was scummy, and the roleclaim was supposedly null. I mean, one null thing and one scummy thing should be leaning scum, shouldn't it?

[The Fonz]

Rib, flips should affect reads, and if you're going to continue to push the exact same case as yesterday without even acknowledging that the target of your ire pushed relentlessly for a scum lynch, that's a bad thing. It's one thing to think that Sens was bussing- it's another to completely ignore any evidence that might suggest town.

[The Fonz]

Ah yes, my bad. I'd forgotten how OTT you were about the 'Dram couldn't have been bussing' thing.

However, that raises a new issue of its own- how come you seemed to think it so drastically unlikely that Dram was bussing Jack, but are happy enough to assume that Sens was?

[The Fonz]

Fonz and Sens, since you guys know Lowell's meta fairly well, is this still a null tell for him? That was pretty bad to be that clueless about the game.

Unsure. He's useless nearly all the time, but when town there can sometimes be occasional flashes of usefulness. Irrelevant really, since the policy-lyncher-in-chief is consul today, though.

[The Fonz]

And I've basically told him he's dead if he doesn't? Not really.

[The Fonz]

Sens is still town.

The sheer volume of muttering and no bite on lowell makes me think he's town as well and scum can't decide if its worth taking a real bite.

What do you mean by the word 'bite' here?

[The Fonz]

That you'd veto Parama is kinda irrelevant, because I'm not executing him today. I've still not seen anything that overrides the strong town read I got off chesskid.

Primate, if you were consul today, who would you kill?

[The Fonz]

What do you mean by the word 'bite' here?

There's too many people toying with the idea and not enough pitchforks ready for blood.

Does 'I'm absolutely going to execute him if he doesn't shape up' not count as a pitchfork? Also notice how after the whole game going by, basically, without the usual scum tying to scapegoat Lowell stuff happening, Lowell still tries to turn around today and use that as his defence. All I can say is if Jack was trying to get Lowell lynched, he wasn't trying very hard. People who Jack wants to lynch normally get lynched.

[The Fonz]

@Fonz: You seem up on the meta. What's the current general attitude towards trying to lynch lurkers? Is bringing it up seen as a scumtell that some scum may want to avoid?

Shades of grey. Certainly the phrase 'policy lynch' seems to have become almost akin to 'witchcraft.' So whenever you try to get a lurker lynched, someone will usually cry policy and attack you over it. The prevailing attitude seems to be that lurking is only scummy if it's out of character. I've heard the precise explanation 'I'm not suspicious of him because he always does it, if a normally active player lurked it'd be a different question,' many times.

[The Fonz]

I don't think TownLowell would care, is I guess what I'm saying.

Hey now!! You want your participation or not? Don't make me go back to lurking. I'll do it, too!

It's your funeral. And no, I will not be buying the particular wifom of 'Fonz said he'd kill Lowell if he didn't contribute, but Lowell didn't contribute, so he must not care about his own life and therefore be town.'

[The Fonz]

Lowell. You have 24 hours.

[The Fonz]

Towns which let people who aren't contributing anything and may not even be paying attention live to endgame lose.

[The Fonz]

Execute: Lowell

[The Fonz]

1047- fonz says lowell is scum b/c people haven't attacked him [-, play better!]

Lowell. You made the argument that when you are town, everyone acts like they have to suspect you, and scum in particular try to get you lynched. This simply hadn't happened. You were allowed to get away with lurking with remarkably little suspicion thrown on you. Please explain what is wrong with this analysis.

[The Fonz]

So, some interesting stuff here. I'd probably have preferred a Scot consulate to a Magua one. The Sens pick makes sense, since I probably wouldn't have wanted him dead today, but I'm still far from convinced he's town.

Tbh, I can see things both ways on nearly everyone here. Parama's *still* my top town pick, probably, since I still think chesskid's play makes more sense as town than scum, but that's probably my one really solid read. Scot still looks somewhat town, and I could probably use another day to get a read on Shanba, and Magua's consul. So the lynches I'd most support today are probably Spyre, Feysal, Nate, not in any particular order. I'll be focussing my scrutiny there.

Hey SpyreX, you classified Scot as a lurker yesterday. Were you talking about at that point in the game only, or do you think he has been lurky overall?

[The Fonz]

Add on 'Does his damnest to undermine the credibility of anyone who isn't mod-confirmed Town' to the list of reasons why Nathanael is probably Scum.

You know what? Nate kind of has a point, although he's made in in kind of a scummy way (for instance, how about making an actual argument for why Rib is/was a better choice rather than vaguely saying 'You shouldn't trust Fonz so much')? First everyone voted for ribwich 'because he's confirmed town' without thinking about it, now everyone's voting for me. It's as if no-one is willing to say or do anything remotely controversial with regard to the Tribune vote that might make them stand out. Which is bad, because the trib vote is the one thing that everyone votes on. If people were each voting for someone they thought was a) town and b) in genuine danger of lynch, then we'd have more to go on. On day three, I deliberately tried to frame the discussion as 'Vote for someone other than Ribwich if you want Jack dead' for a reason.

I mean, seriously. I name SpyreX and a guy he has as a town read and wanted as consul as people I want dead today, and he still votes for me. Feysal is on my 'shortlist for wanting dead today' and he votes for me. Shanba doesn't like the idea of a Nate lynch and he votes for... well here's a clue, it wasn't Pat Buchanan.

[The Fonz]

Nate, what is your actual read on Scot?

[The Fonz]

Maybe I'm missing something, Feysal, but why it is in the Town's best interests to decide now on someone that will be immune from being lynched today?

Maybe I'm missing something, Sens, but someone is going to get the immunity. It's in the town's best interests to have an argument about it, and that means not giving it to someone who's not going to need it anyway. Let's say this Scot wagon gets close to or above mine. Then, if you or Magua wants to retain the option to execute Scot, you've got to argue the case for him being scummy enough to merit serious execution consideration. People who think Scot should be immune will present counterarguments as to why Scot is townish enough to merit being spared. Hey Presto, we've got an actual argument about how likely someone is to be scum with people forced to take positions.

[The Fonz]

The Nathanael thing just doesn't FEEL right at this point. Like there are people who are suspicious of him for the whole VETO/EXECUTE thing day 1: in particular someone (sensfan I think) mentioned he found this scummy because it was taking away time from people talking by pushing the execution closer to deadline, which is the most bizarre and dumb thing ever.

Because I submitted an execution on Kat with something like a week left, I think. Then he delayed it a couple times, with the excuse that he was just giving more people time to talk before the Kat lynch. And then with like 3 days left, he pulled someone out of the blue and submitted an execution on them for really weak reasons, leaving everyone with a day to figure out if they like that lynch or not. That's very very scummy shit.

That's actually an excellent point, and probably could have done with being made earlier. Repeatedly vetoing for 'more time' then putting in new, little-discucsed target, forcing you/the tribs/the town to either go along with it, or veto and then have to come up with an even more rushed lynch, is legitimately scummy. (Of course, it's also worth pointing out that town wouldn't have been under such time pressure had you not spent the first few days trying to execute a guy because he was mean to you).

[The Fonz]

Fonz and Sens - Does that mean you would be looking at Magua as the last mafia member if Nath flips scum? If not, why do you think Nath bothered to delay and eventually prevent the Kat lync? If yes, would you still look at Nath the same way if somehow Magua died before him and flipped town?

I would be looking at Magua for scum anyway, because he's part of that group whose actions seem to fit a scum hypothesis just fine, but not because of that. Buddy one noobish townie, kill off another seems fine for a scum's day of consulship.

@Nate: It didn't get vetoed, but note the actual argument in the post you were responding to: the last-minute execution was scummy because they either had to let it go, or submit a veto and an even more last-minute execution. And me having a scummy read on someone and scum killing them off aren't exactly mutually exclusive, are they? It's not so much the target as the timing.

[The Fonz]

Sens, I don't get how you keep asserting 'Fonz thinks I'm scum.' I certainly ain't sure you're town, but you're not my top suspect, and I'd say it's probably marginally more likely you're town. Remember the start of today when I said I was glad you were consul because I was not sure how to read you?

I don't like how self-consciously you seem to keep playing the 'Look how town I am because I act all provocative and don't care' card. But there are scummy things and townish-looking things on pretty much every player in the game. Which I need to make a summary of sometime when it isn't my birthday and my parents aren't gonna be here to visit me any moment.

[The Fonz]

Right, some rebuttals to some rebuttals.

You said there were three scum reasons for Nathanael to delay. One, so he could look town for delaying the execution of a townie to allow more discussion. Problem is, this did not make him look townier at all, and you're completely ignoring the fact that if delaying an execution was a towntell the scum would want to emulate, then it would be something the town would do.

Acting to 'look town' rather than 'help town' is one of the most reliable scumtells. 'More discussion' is one of the most common things scum push for to 'look town.' If he's town, he either wanted to execute Kat or he didn't. When I ask for delays (for example say please don't hammer yet) it's because there's a specific question I want answered TODAY, a specific person I want on the record, or a specific issue I want resolved. The glib 'more discussion' just looks like posturing.

You've completely neglected the explanation that Nathanael just wanted more time for discussion.

This is a pet peeve of mine. Not finding the town explanation particularly plausible is not neglecting it. He could have done that. The scum explanation makes at least as much sense as the town one, though, because as previously stated, buddy one townie and kill another is a pretty good day's work for a scum consul.

Your second reason was that Nathanael would get to keep a useless lurker alive instead of someone posting, and the player he ended up executing was another useless lurker.

I wouldn't say he was useless- he looked more opportunistic- but I take the broader point that Powerrox was an understandable player for town to attack.

The third point about executing at deadline to minimize time for discussion is just stupid, when that did not even happen. The execution happened two days before deadline, after the discussion had dried up, and when many people had agreed with executing powerrox93.

Is it not possible people just went along with it because deadline was nearing, though? I just feel like it's more in town's interests for Nate to take a firm position on Kat earlier than he did. Either go along with it, or make clear it's not going to happen at a point when there's time for a full discussion of other candidates. The ONLY thing Nate really achieved by vetoing and resubmitting was pushing things closer to deadline.

You call Nathanael's stance on Jack asinine, and in retrospect he admittedly was wrong. You did not know that at the time though, and for all I know Nathanael made a townie mistake. I find it hard to imagine that scum would defend their partner like this, they should have known to cut their losses and allow Jack to die.

And this is my key reason for thinking Nate is one of my top scum candidates. His flip on Jack made no sense. It was repeatedly explained that in the position Dram was actually in, he couldn't do anything but go for either the player everyone else wanted dead or the player he himself had been attacking full-on the whole of the previous day.

Nate, if scum, was probably working on the basis that Dram executing scum would make Dram look town for a good few days. In that scenario, Nate probably figures, because Dramonic's got so much towncred, we can afford to bus Jack. Then Dram dies overnight, and all of a sudden the numbers game looks pretty bad for the scum.

Nate needs to hit reverse PDQ, and the only thing he's got to hang his hat on is 'scum wouldn't double bus.' Nate knows this is a poor reason, but knows from experience if he makes a bad argument and really sticks with it obstinately in the face of all possible evidence then people will assume he's just stubborn town.

The alternative is that he actually bought the 'scum won't double bus' theory, and while I've seen townies believe stranger things, it's still pretty unlikely in my eyes.

As for you, Feysal, I find it very hard to take you seriously when you're basically arguing that defending scum at a scumvenient point is a towntell. And I don't really see what's superscummy about Parama apart from, maybe, that he was calling your slot scum from the moment he entered. The scummiest thing I can find is the defence of Jack, but then, he's not alone in that, is he?

[The Fonz]

Explain the Shanba read if you would.

[The Fonz]

The VT thing isn't anything. Just like it wasn't when ribwich made the same observation on day one.

Feysal's point about Nate getting people to state whether they are for or against a Kat lynch is a pretty good one. Though of course it only applies to the first veto and resubmission.

@Magua, assume I veto Nate and you get online before Sens. Who would you execute?

@Nate: Not a recent game I'm afraid (in fact, I went looking for it and couldn't find it, which means it was likely lost in the crash of 2008- very little from 2007 survives) which means it's even older than I'd remembered it being (I thought it was 2009 or something). It was something that really stuck in my memory though, kinda like Kublai Khan's miller gambit or the setup of Space Monkey Mafia. The way the first thing he said in the QT night one was 'OK guys, that should have pretty much guaranteed I get investigated.' I've seen lesser examples in a few games where I've had access to the scum QT (such as backup modding)- where scum take the position that they want the cop to investigate the GF, and indeed on certain occasions even leave him alive specifically so he investigates the godfather. And of course, you will remember how useful Vi getting investigated as Godfather was in our just-finished game.

I will make two points. One, I'm writing an MD article on gambits at the moment, so it was kind of fresh in my mind. Secondly, people who make 'Fonz knows too much' arguments on the basis of me pointing out the various reasons for disbelieving someone who's already a proven liar can burn in hell. Did you look at that Jack game he linked where he fakeclaimed as town? When Jack gambits as town, there's usually a very specific objective he has in mind. The supposed 'payoff' he announced from his gambit here was nebulous and wifomy.

[The Fonz]

What's giving me pause here is it really looks like Magua might be trying to lurk through today and let Sensfan take the heat for a town execution, which obviously gives me pause on Nate, but would also give me pause on SpyreX because I really don't think he was scum with Katsuki. I do not support a Parama execution under any circumstances today, so that would mean if I did veto Nate, I'd probably end up on you, and that brings us full circle because if I had a straight choice between you and Nate, I'd want Nate dead- with the VT claim at least partly factoring into that. I suppose Shanba would be a decent execution, but I don't know if either consul has any interest in that.

[The Fonz]

Here it begins. Jack suggests making scummy-VI players into Consuls, and chesskid3 is there to ask for Consulship, claiming to be scummy-VI.

I don't think this is an associational tell at all. Scum would want dumbass town consuls. The reason he suggests these players is 'to get a better read on them' - ie, so he can scapegoat them when they execute town.

@mod:find a replacement for chesskid (or me)

Here we have Jack expressing his displeasure with chesskid3, during his fight with SensFan. Of course, he could simply be posing, since it would be townish to be angry about spamming the thread. But, threatening to replace out is rather extreme to be posing.

Yeah, so it says Jack found chesskid unbearable irritating. Big so what?

Chesskid and Sens are town. That's not a good thing though

Again Sens, I understand your frustration at Chesskid3's incredible usefulness, but even though he's a twat he's still town. Bad, annoying, frustrating town, but he is. You're town too, do the right thing and off someone who has actual odds at being scum.

Because scum never, ever buddy up to bad town to get them onside. Dram saying Sens is town is actually more interesting there.

Heck, a cop could investigate him and if he gets a guilty I'd call him most likely insane.

Five times. Five times dramonic calls chesskid3 or Parama town. Does this look like scum defending a partner to anyone else? To me it does. And as if that were not enough...

No, it very much does not. Parama exagerrated with 'never' but it's pretty rare for scum to call their partners obvtown unless they look obvtown in general.

Whee, dramonic's reads in 224 are mostly mine backwards! He's probably town

This has got to be one of the silliest reasons I've ever seen for giving someone a town read. After this, when dramonic and reckoner have their distancing fight on page 21, Parama is in the middle of it, taking dramonic's side.

Right. Do you think taking one side or other in a distancing fight is a good thing for scum to do? The more people paying attention to it, the more chance of one of the distancers actually dying.

And then, the best part:

Ribwichtown the idiot ccs because he is unable to process this simple thought process and ruins the entire point of Jack's claim.

Yeah, and Nate's totally innocent in that regard.

That Nath doesn't even try and consider this option FROM HIS POSITION shows that he's aiming towards the dichotomy and is scum trying to set up two mislynches based on claims alone. Even a 3rd grader has enough of the brain to come up with the solution, "Oooh they could both be town right? right? Riiiight?"

Parama was defending Jack with his theory of both Consulmaker claimants being town, even after Jack had been caught lying. His explanation for why they would both be town is horrible. And what do you know?

Not exactly a shining example of rational town though, agreed. But it really feels like you're making out like defending Jack is scummy when it suits you, and not when it's not. Parama looks more sincere in his defence of Jack (thought the gambit itself was townish) than Nate (did a 180 when things started to look dicey for scum). You argue that it would have been 'more convenient' for scum to bus Jack on day three. This really feels like an argument built on a house of cards. You're using it to defend Nate, but don't apply the same standard to Parama- arguing that Nate isn't scum because scum would have bussed, but Parama is scum because he defended Jack.

All of this feels circumstantial, and the town explanation feels as likely or more than the scum motivation you posited. For someone who's claiming Sens decided Nate was scum then looks at every action through that prism, you seem to be doing a lot of it yourself here. And chesskid's actions still make much more sense from a town than a scum POV.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Ribwich

Sens' argument from yesterday makes some sense. Gonna re-read spyre for connections.

[The Fonz]

And that's that, I guess. Fonz, were you aware you were hammering rib?

No, actually. That said, I don't particularly regret it. We're down to few enough players that your argument from yesterday holds greater weight.

Fonz, I thought you had a fairly strong town read on Parama. Why would you want someone that wants him dead to be tribune?

1) I wasn't particularly aware of you hating on Parama? Nate and Feysal, sure. You?
2) Feysal/Nate flips obviously make me less sure on Parama, though I'm still leaning town.
3) See above: with only a pool of five lynchables, I don't think it's a good idea to completely rule anyone else out.

Incidentally, after yesterday I have a pretty strong town read on Sens. I'd like to see a Magua or Shanba lynch today.

[The Fonz]

Rib, I think it's mostly been a case of that I've been ignoring you, since you can't be scum but you don't strike me as a brilliant scumhunter. I just kinda scanned the thread today, got in my vote, then went off to start reading. I think I'd probably vote you anyway though, since I believe in my ability to convince Scot.

Do answer me this though. Do you really expect a scum player to deliberately antagonise a town tribune the way chesskid did to Sens? I still think it makes more sense as a town player with a genuine scumread on sens and a trollish way of scumhunting. Obv at this point, we can pretty much bury the bus possibility.

[The Fonz]

Magua is MUCH scummier than Sens, Scot. Just look at yesterday. Look at which consul stuck his neck out for a Nate lynch, look at which one just kinda sat back and didn't do much and just let it happen.

[The Fonz]

The SpyreX point is a good one, though. It really didn't look like bussing at the time.

[The Fonz]

Obvious strawman is obvious.

[The Fonz]

^

Interesting point. Note that, however, he did execute Jack, and his suspicion shifted to Nate after that.

[The Fonz]

I'm confused. Surely what Sens said had a lot to do with wifom?

[The Fonz]

You basically accused Parama of defending himself with wifom by going

'OH LOOK IM SO TOWNIETOWNTOWN THAT ILL SUPPORT MY OWN LYNCH TODAY'

.

That's 'talking about wifom' in my book.

[The Fonz]

Uh, what? Sens, why have you got a bee in your bonnet here? I'm not disagreeing with you. Saying someone is using wifom is definitely talking about wifom, and therefore 'has something to do with wifom.'

[The Fonz]

Right, and pointing out WIFOM 'has something to do with wifom.' Having something to do with wifom isn't the same as BEING wifom. Like if I made a post accusing you of, say, lurking. It would have something to do with lurking. Sheesh.

[The Fonz]

No, Parama was calling Sens' arguments cheesy.

[The Fonz]

Scot, the point of having time is to make the most informed lynch we can. If there's something you need to do that, ask for it. Otherwise, get executing. 'Not rushing' isn't a good thing if the only thing not rushing does is give us more time to sit around twiddling our thumbs.

[The Fonz]

Scot, the point of having time is to make the most informed lynch we can. If there's something you need to do that, ask for it. Otherwise, get executing. 'Not rushing' isn't a good thing if the only thing not rushing does is give us more time to sit around twiddling our thumbs.

I'm still waiting for Ribwich to give me his case on Parama. You also aren't very active in helping me make an informed lynch.

I'm sorry, what do you expect me to do? All three of my top three suspects died between yesterday and today. With absolutely everyone else, there are things that point both ways. I wish I did have a strong, unambiguous belief about who's scum, but pretty much anyone being scum requires me to throw out something I saw as town- except possibly Shanba, but then, Shanba's probably given me less positive reason to suspect him as well. Either SpyreX was bussing somewhere I wouldn't expect him to, or Sens was (and it's worth noting that Jack probably doesn't die without Sens- and I really don't see how Sens can possibly be the scummier of the two consuls yesterday), or Chesskid was acting in a way I wouldn't expect from a scum facing a town consul.

[The Fonz]

Oh, and I agree with Magua, protecting the Vig today is important. Therefore, no massclaim- though if the vig were forced to claim, or died at night or whatever, I would want massclaim immediately, order set by whoever's consulmaker.

[The Fonz]

Yes UT, more information is always good, therefore why doesn't the vig claim immediately?[/sarcasm]

You're not the only one who can strawman. You want to pick who dies by getting people to commit to a lynch in advance. Guess what? It doesn't work like that. Your power is indirect for a reason, otherwise this would turn into 'suck up to Tripod Day.' And while that might make a great gay porn movie, it's a pretty pisspoor way to run a mafia game. IF I'm consuled tomorrow or any other damn day, I'll execute whoever I think is more likely to be scum. I'm not going out of my way to help the scum WIFOM us. (Fonz says he'd kill Magua! Now he's dead! Magua must be scum! NO WAI SCUM R TOTALLY TRYING 2 FRAME MAGUA!" etc).

For the record, use your damn veto.

[The Fonz]

Yes, quite easily. Disagrees with me about strategy =/= is scum.

[The Fonz]

Note again Scot's observation of you: everyone who disagrees is either scum (Magua) or you come up with some patronising reason why their opinion can be discounted (he's new, he's trolling, he's a VI, he's stupid, he's only just joined the game so doesn't understand etc). I don't actually think this is a scumtell on your part, but it does piss me off.

[The Fonz]

In about four hours' time, Shanba will have gone 72 hours without posting. For the third time today. In Fonzmod games, that's automatic replacement.

[The Fonz]

Sens, seriously though. The whole 'I'm right and anyone who disagrees with me is an idiot' schtick is incredibly annoying. Feysal's defence of Nate was actually pretty good, it probably would have swayed me had I been town. Sure, sometimes people attack you with really retarded arguments, and I'm not the best at keeping my cool in that scenario either... but you seemed to do it all. the. time. in this game.

The other obv thing I did differently is not point out the fact that all the active players looked like they were tunnelling on each other while Shanba's slot went five days without really contributing. I normally policy lynch players like that. I'm not sure I'd have sided with Sens over Magua on saying who we'd execute either. I'm legitimately conflicted about that issue, I can see both sides from a town POV.

Pretty much every scum kill was power role hunting. We didn't really make much effort to manipulate the town or anything, in fact almost the opposite. We really didn't want to take the Feysal mislynch off the table AND remove that source of pressure on Sens, but he made most sense as vig. (We'd rolecopped Scot). The Sens lynch, obviously, just fell into our laps, not only did neither of us support it, but I actively opposed it. (The Sens/Magua consul point stands. Magua, you played an OK game but you really could have been more active in engaging with the arguments surrounding Nate).

[The Fonz]

Although Feysal, Primate is a good and level-headed scumhunter, and he thought you were scum, so it's not like that's completely irrational either.

[The Fonz]

It's simple guys. No one in the town played well. We lucked out with three obvious scum.

I was a pretty bad consol the last day. I tunneled on sens (really did think he was scum). I don't remember when, but something seemed off about fonz on that last. I just never followed up on it. My faults guys.

That reminds me, if and when the guys let us post the qt... I was actually, to a certain extent,

trying

to look scummy to avoid the seemingly-inevitable 'Why isn't Fonz dead yet?' speculation. I'd fully admit to somewhat coasting that day.

What I take issue with is Parama calling me legitimately scummy without ever making a single legitimate point why.

And the definition of 'legitimate' here is of course... yours.

[The Fonz]

Scum quicktopic.

Funny how I offered to rep into two games (this and Seinfeld) because I had a few days before Simpsons started, and ended up getting scum and living to the end in both.

[The Fonz]

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention... great to get the win and all, but in a way I'm disappointed we didn't actually get to use all the '3rd century BC Romans' research we did.

[The Fonz]

Jack, I don't know if you're interested in taking advice from me, but the big thing that stood out for me here with your gambit was... well, when you were town, the gambit seemed to be geared toward a specific end (getting someone in particular lynched). Here, the 'fruits' of the gambit seemed really vague and nebulous from a town perspective.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, seeing as you're around, I'll be interested to know if in your opinion, the lynch of Lowell was the right thing for the town do and a convienent situation for you to do something internally consistent with your own beliefs or something that you felt happy pulling off against a town you feel should have objected. I had my ups and downs this game, but the decision to support a lynch of lowell was easily the one I am most unsure as to whether it was the right decision.

Well, bear in mind there were two scum consuls that day. So it was always going to be a town lynch, I just went with the least controversial one.

Honestly, I think it was the right town move. No-one in the game actually came up with a reason to think Lowell town. With a player who's essentially not playing, the case against them is always going to be pretty much the same, so you're better off lynching them early.

[The Fonz]

Parama, seriously though, why did you suspect Rabies? Your entry post calls him scum, but doesn't comment on anything he actually did.