Purified Mafia (Over)

[Tebow]

C-c-c-c-confirm!

[Tebow]

Sure, but only if you can explain exactly why this is pro-town.

Vote: Borkjerfkin

Are you incapable of making up your own mind on whether or not it is pro-town?

[Tebow]

I don't understand my role! Please send help!....
/confirm

Kdowns is town. He probably has a PR he doesn't understand. VT and mafia roles are easy to comprehend.

Why did you think it beneficial to town to share publicly the fact that he 'probably has a PR?'

Pre-edit:

bork was pretty obviously asking CTD to explain his reasoning, and Tebow misrepresented that to make bork look scummy.

P-Edit: Arugula, no. Just no.

I didn't misrepresent a thing. Borf could quite easily have thought about the merits and drawbacks of massclaim himself and given his opinion, instead he asks CTD to do the intellectual legwork for him.

Another Pre-edit: Please stop ninjaing me so I can post!

[Tebow]

Well, maybe I shouldn't have pointed it out, but I wanted to give reasoning for my town read on him.

To follow up BabyBlue's line of questioning, why do you think he made that post? I mean, if you don't understand your role, surely the person to ask is the mod in a PM? What benefit does saying it to everyone have for town? It doesn't lead to you getting help, and as you yourself have demonstrated it could lead to outing yourself as a PR. It looks more likely to be an attempt to draw attention to his newbishness/lack of competence in order to get himself dismissed as 'just bad town' than to actually work out what his role does.

In fact,

Unvote, Vote: kdowns

[Tebow]

I don't really know why he made that post. Maybe kdowns can clear that up.

Well, which do you find more plausible? The explanation you seemed to initially assume or the alternative I just posited?

[Tebow]

LOL PR fishing much?

VOTE: CrashTextDummie

Bad vote, try again.

[Tebow]

I don't think CrashTextDummie was joking. I can think of a few things that might explain it, but none of them are funny.

[Tebow]

Withholding judgment on Tebow vs. CrashTextDummie for right now, but I think them crossbussing this early in the game is absurd.

You mean Borkjerfkin?

[Tebow]

My word, post explosion. Reading now.

[Tebow]

So fucking scummy. Instead of offering an opinion on what SC says, Tebow simply corrects him.
Why isn't this guy dead yet?

I was momentarily confused, since I hadn't attacked CTD. I wanted clarification. In any case, the point itself is about what I may or may not have done if I were scum with Bork, so there's no useful thing I can say about what may or may not happen in an untrue counterfactual.

[Tebow]

This post reads scummy to me. I don't like the verbage used

and is OMGUS to boot.

This is clear case padding. You think I'd OMGUS a completely random vote? You think I was scum who saw a threat because someone voted me because Tim Tebow isn't going to get many pro bowl votes? Come off it. A player who voted me completely at random also happened to do something scummy in the same post.

That is a stretch and a half of imagination you have there. Either that or you have misguided expectation of people that do not exist in mafia.

There are a lot of ways to react to the massclaim proposition. Someone with town motives, I'd expect them to support or reject the suggestion on the basis of whether they thought it helped the town. Perhaps even go 'LOL' if they thought it was particularly obviously antitown. A scum player may be afraid of giving a 'wrong' answer, so ask for more explanation, which would give the added bonus of allowing them to hold off giving their reaction until more other people did.

[Tebow]

Now, role reveals. This was brough up early in the game and I think that there is more merit to the idea of a day 1 role reveal than normal. Everyone knows one role that is not in the game and if the scum fake-claim that role then we have one caught scum.

However, overall, I would think that a role reveal is more useful later in the game and it gives the scum targets on Day 1. Which is a bad thing. Definitely something to discuss though.

I see cognitive dissonance here. If there is one role per person that can't be claimed, aren't scum precisely more likely to claim it if they don't know what those roles are than if they do? Also the 'something to discuss' part moderately pings my scumdar, since 'calling for discussion' rather than 'pushing an angle' is a look-like-content act.

___
W/R/T Baby, I feel like the objections being raised to her play are correct, but self-defeating, since I would have expected her to come over all self-pitying under attack regardless of alignment. I would advocate just leaving her be for a RL day or two to see how she behaves when the conversation doesn't revolve largely around her.

[Tebow]

Ohhhhh Tebow. You could at least try to look interested in scumhunting, instead of simply defending yourself against a few accusations made a handful of pages ago.

As you see from the 'post explosion, catching up' post, I read from page three, which was where we were when I was last online. There were posts directed to me, I responded directly to them as I came to them. After that, I read through the rest of the game, and decided not to go post by post for the sake of avoiding the wall, and instead just giving my opinion on the major issue as I saw it at the time, namely the whole BabyBlue thing, and on the most recent thing that struck me as troubling, namely Gooner. The Jackal wagon strikes me as one of those derpy Day 1 wagons built on very little (oh shock, Katsuki's on it) that gets far too high far too fast. I'm fully expecting it to fall apart. I mean I understand the wagon - what he says appears contradictory - but I'm getting an 'expressed himself carelessly' vibe rather than a scum vibe atm. I still need to look at those on it, but y'know, you don't have to do everything in one catchup post, even if you have the time which I didn't.

I hadn't actually noticed that kdowns had posted at all. Certainly, he said little of consequence. Gave a predictable excuse (one that someone else had already offered him, let me go look who that was) for his first post, and moaned about people suspecting him. (Particularly dislike the misrep accusation... if someone's opinion is that your vote was opportunistic, just because you don't think it so doesn't make it a misrepresentation or a lie).

Considering you voted me initially for my scumhunting of borkjerfkin, your accusation that I'm not actually scumhunting is adorable. Especially since I'm voting for kdowns who genuinely hasn't done any scumhunting.

Gooner's response to my point looks like empty theory. I'm seeing a fair bit of 'helpful' rather than analytical play from Gooner. 261 and 2 are examples of this, too.

This is clear case padding. You think I'd OMGUS a completely random vote? You think I was scum who saw a threat because someone voted me because Tim Tebow isn't going to get many pro bowl votes?

He voted you, you voted him thus it's OMGUS. I'm assuming the second question is a joke.

Yes, but the important thing here is, I voted him for a reason that had nothing whatsoever to do with his vote on me. The definition of OMGUS isn't voting someone who's voting you, it's voting someone BECAUSE they voted you. So my second question wasn't a joke - for my vote to be OMGUS, your answer to the second question would have to be yes, and clearly it can't be because that's utterly ridiculous. So what you've done here is to append a scummy-sounding descriptor that doesn't actually apply to make your very weak attack sound better.

[Tebow]

@Bork, fair enough, my bad. Still think misrepresent is used too often when 'Was wrong about' is the more likely explanation.

[Tebow]

OK, so I wrote quite a lot overnight, since I'm not in any other games and was kinda bored. I'm gonna break it up into a few manageable chunks, also about a quarter of it was about FarFluff so I'm going to excise that unless anyone really wants to see it (my conclusion was basically that there was a ton that I was uncomfortable with, but one particular thing that didn't make any sense for scum). So coming later is my explanation of my thought process on Jackal and analysis of those on the wagon, but I'll go first with looking at those of us off because I think that's where we need to look first.

Right off the bat, BabyBlue was banned for being the alt of some notorious troll from a year ago, so on this particular occasion I'm happy enough to grant the replacement a pretty much clean slate.

Guy_Named_Riggs has done literally nothing. Other people already picked up on the random vote thing so I won't dwell there, but I did some meta research and he is much more proactive as town here but broadly similar to this here. There's an issue with games where the endings and thus his alignment was lost in the crash, but I skimmed a couple of them, and comments along the lines of 'We're only a few pages in, how can we have any idea who's scum' are fairly common. There's one specific thing he did in one game that I really want to know about, though.

@G_N_R:

What was your alignment and role in Artemis Fowl mafia?

Nocmen appears to be scumhunting, asks questions, pushes people. Soft town read, not interested in lynching today, though the one thing that looks a bit iffy to me is that he does a lot of asking about other people's thoughts on Jackal but doesn't give many of his own: only real comment I can find is when he says he kind of likes the Jackal wagon because it's talking about something other than Babyblue and Farfluff's argument. He also kinda implies that there may be several opportunistic votes on the wagon at one point. I could see this as a buddy keeping his options open.

kdowns: Low content poster, no comment on Jackal, seems excessively concerned with things said about him, accuses Arugula of misrep for what appears to have been an honest mistake to me. Meta analysis suggests possible VI, but I have no positive reason to think him town whatsoever.

Acronach's initial vote for borkjerfkin is ridiculous (Bork wasn't squirming, it was obvious he meant 'reaction fishing' not rolefishing) though not necessarily scummy. He makes a list of all the players with most people as null, which I find questionable, especially as he lists Jackal as 'mostly null' but soft defends him by suggesting the wagon might have grown up too quickly.

And his whole 'scarecrow' argument which he uses twice is ludicrous, by his given definition -- 'Interpreting something differently to how it was intended.' People aren't psychic, they don't know what others intended to say, and scum players intend to say things they'll flat out deny if asked. I mean, the implication is that if two people interpret a given post differently, one has to be scummy for it. Given that he interpreted Bork's 'reaction fishing' post completely differently to how I think it is obvious it was meant, he comes across as a complete hypocrite. Scummy.

CTD's game theory talk is consistent with how he proposed a massclaim D1 in another just-finished game I found. But it's basically all he talked about. GNR vote is defensible, though not original, would like him to expand on why he was 'not a fan' of the Jackal wagon without naming names as to specific votes he was uncomfortable with. Not a terrible lynch, wouldn't be my first call.

SC - I don't like his Arugula vote. As I will expand on when I talk about Arugula specifically, I think scum who spot PR slips are more likely to keep shtum and NK the guy than point it out to everyone. His 'Well it might be a coded message to NK him' justification (73) is a huge reach. This feels like a vote designed to punish something antitown, but I note that he also claims to hate policy lynches.

55-57-61-69 are all pretty much empty theory talk. He also seems to do a lot of semantic nitpicking, and spends the second half of the day pushing BabyBlue, before claiming at the end of the day he would have voted for Jackal if he hadn't already been asked. When specifically asked for his thoughts on Jackal, he says neutral leaning town without any elaboration. Well, if he thought that, then why wasn't he trying to convince anyone to get off the Jackal wagon? His attack on BabyBlue feels both scummy (he doesn't appear to realize that 'The two people who are attacking me are scum together!' is raw, self-centered noobtell rather than scumtell) and half-assed (he doesn't really look like he's trying to persuade anyone else to me - there's no 'People, vote for Baby, look how scummy this is' kind of appeals). Oh, and he tries to underhandedly imply that Nikanor is aware that there is only one scumgroup (340). So yeah, he's a good lynch. Some postcount padding, some attacks where I think he should know better, and lacking the courage of his supposed convictions.

I'd be happy with either SC or Acronach today. I'm gonna take a shower, then post about the Jackal wagon.

[Tebow]

+ DrMy could well be a bus. His vote kinda looks parked. He voted early, presumably to do with the backing off point which is a good but comparatively minor point, and then didn't make any effort to rally people to the wagon. I could see the scenario when he planned to distance early, then Jackal got scummier so he never had the chance to hop off. That said, his interactions with Baby feel town (I like to ask newbies who are acting as if the world revolves around them who is scum in order to get more useful content from them).

+

@DrMy

: Why did you specifically feel GNR was scum WITH JACKAL? I agree that random vote on page seven is scummy (Woulda mentioned it in my catchup but it had been more than sufficiently covered already) but why did you think it specifically linked him to Jackal?

+ DTM's initial backing off point was good, and he then made some effort to convince other people. Not completely impossible, but I'd be quite surprised if this is a bus.

+ Nikanor's probably not scum, just a tone thing. Everything he posts is either calling someone scum or asking someone else to vote for someone he's called scum. He appears somewhat tunnelled, but there's worse things you can be than that.

+ Katsuki's playing exactly according to meta, which is accordingly mostly null, though I question whether he'd be AS reckless with a scumbuddy as he would with a player of unknown alignment. Gonna do a bit more meta research here.

+ No major complaints about Borf, really, my early concern that he was trying to see which way the wind would blow is contradicted by his swift and decisive reaction to the Jackal contradiction.

+ Trevor - well when I saw his name on the wagon list, I thought 'Who's that?' Not really a good sign. Low poster, but to be fair, some strong stances - 'Jackal's iso is shit,' 'Acronach is fake scumhunting,' etc. I also tend to agree with him on Acronach.

+ MemphisWill too little to go on.

+ BBMolla looks like he's genuinely scumhunting. Was also willing to admit to policy lynching, which is a town sign.

+ Gooner I've said plenty about. It all stands. At the same time, he did do quite a bit of 'rallying' people toward, and arguing for, this wagon. I don't have a great feeling about him, but I don't want him dead with any urgency.

+ Aragula appears to be poking at people, etc, probably can't give town cred for being this late, but he doesn't feel like scum to me anyway. I think when scum spot a possible PR slip, they don't flag it up for everyone to see, they just wait and NK appropriately.

[Tebow]

Just noticed I posted the link to the game where Riggs was proactive twice. The one where he kinda derps around is newbie 1162.

[Tebow]

-no, people aren't psychic, but most people aren't morons. Most people can tell that "explain reasoning for massclaim request" means "answer question so i can get a read" and not even anything close to "do my thinking for me"(refer to pages 1 and 2). seriously, learn to use brain.

And I would say most people can tell that 'It's not scummy because he was fishing' obviously means reaction fishing and not role fishing. Seriously, learn to use brain.

People Read This

-Kat says she saw BB's role PM, and people are taking the post seriously, so I will trust that it isn't a false claim, especially considering BB's (fail) reaction VOTE: BBmolla
-DRM, your sheep attempt is for shit, seriously,

FOS

-I am extremely busy, and I have minor concern about weather or not I will have time to read everything. For now, I'm going

V/LA

, but I will promise some kind of a post on either Sunday or Monday

FAIL.

[Tebow]

+ Katsuki's playing exactly according to meta, which is accordingly mostly null, though I question whether he'd be AS reckless with a scumbuddy as he would with a player of unknown alignment. Gonna do a bit more meta research here.

If you're saying what I think you're saying, I play "reckless" regardless of alignment?

I've not finished researching you... you are reputed to be a notorious quicklyncher. I'm not sure if you're willing to bus with the same kind of devil-may-care attitude with which you push lynches through as town.

+ BBMolla looks like he's genuinely scumhunting. Was also willing to admit to policy lynching, which is a town sign.

LOOKS LIKE "genuinely scumhunting" =/= town.
Plus there are reasons as to why he's scum.

How confident are you that these 'reasons' are valid?

[Tebow]

Why should antitown behavior be encouraged anyway?

It shouldn't, but there's a contradiction between voting someone to punish antitown behavior and hating policy lynching.

Show me the bolded.

Here. Also, I have no idea why I wrote 'already been asked' when I meant to say 'already been hammered.' Musta got distracted or something.

A lot of my focus had been on BabyBlue. It also makes little sense to push people off a weak town read of mine

If a lot of your focus was on babyblue, and you thought she was scum, the town thing to do is to try to convince people she's a better wagon than Jackal.

And if I'm not persuasive, then I'm not persuasive. I cannot control anybody else.

My problem is that you didn't actually appear to be TRYING to persuade anyone.

How is it underhanded? There is no way town is going to know the number of teams on Day 1.

Because he didn't say 'Scum can't scumhunt in this game because there's only one team.' He said scum can't scumhunt. In general. You're being lawyerly. You're trying to allege some kind of bizarre scum thought process by which he went out of his way to convey inside information, when what he was really saying is 'You're scum,' and it ain't any more complicated than that. If someone said they were afraid of NK, and someone said 'You shouldn't be, you're scum' would you try to imply that's a slip? Also, you didn't come out and say it, you phrased it in quite a weaselly way imho.

[Tebow]

I only have one vote.

That's not even close to the point, which is that your claimed statements are contradictory and don't speak to a town thought process.

I tried by showing how BabyBlue was scummy. It didn't work.

You 'tried' by arguing with BabyBlue, which was only going to achieve fueling her persecution complex. You weren't going to convince HER she was scum. I didn't ever see you reaching out to someone else, asking them

For Nikanor to assume that scum can't scumhunt even in a multiball is clearly foolish. Yes, being misleading is part of the scum objective, but when there are two scumteams or a scumteam and a good chance of a serial killer, there is legitimate hunting for scum to do.

Yes, it's foolish, but WHY IS IT SCUMMY? And how do you know he's doing that, rather than using hyperbole? Do you think his thought process was more of the 'Tebow is claiming to scumhunt but as scum I know there is only one scum group therefore scum can't possibly scumhunt so I am going to tell everyone there is only one scumgroup in order to try to paint him as scum' or do you think it was more like 'LOL scum pretending to scumhunt?'

If someone said they were afraid of NK, and someone said 'You shouldn't be, you're scum' would you try to imply that's a slip?

No; that would mean I think he outed his buddy, which is asking for a site ban. I'm also more than experienced enough for people to know that people often say "you're scum" when they're not confirmed scum, just the accuser's educated guess.

You'd assume he was OUTING HIS BUDDY before you assumed he was being hyperbolic? And then you turn around and contradict that by stating it's 'Just his educated guess.' Well, no _____ Sherlock. Town players say 'You're scum' all the time without actually knowing for sure.

I'm heading off early today and won't be back until the middle of Sunday. V/LA.

[Tebow]

EBWOP:

You 'tried' by arguing with BabyBlue, which was only going to achieve fueling her persecution complex. You weren't going to convince HER she was scum. I didn't ever see you reaching out to someone else, asking them

to vote for BB, or saying 'Don't you think this BB post is scummy because of XYZ, or saying 'Guys I see where you're coming from with Jackal, but baby is scummier and here's why?

This is what people are confident they have scum in their sights do, they try to reach out to potential supporters. You appeared to be more concerned with justifying your own vote than swinging anyone else's.

Vote: StrangerCoug

[Tebow]

Coug, wow, be more scum. Will explain later, posting on cell - my V/LA is gonna last until lunchtime est on Monday.

[Tebow]

Coug, wow, be more scum. Will explain later, posting on cell - my V/LA is gonna last until lunchtime est on Monday.

Right. Before I start I should note I'm not going to respond to Coug's latest point-by-point, except to say that I don't agree with a single point of it, because I'm pretty sure a point-for-point response is going to lead to a point-by-point response which will lead to a quote war. Oh, and the 'Not trying to convince anyone' bit might just be a horribly ineffectual playstyle (I'm willing to bet Coug is the kind of guy who's on one-man wagons a lot).

But guys, JUST LOOK at #524.

He HoSes the biggest wagon (supporting it without voting) with some really weak reasons - 'Didn't really push' the Jackal lynch, hasn't voted today - which look as if they've been concocted for the sole reason of not appearing to sheep. But that's not even the scummy part.

The scummy part is the 'I'm waiting for DrMy/replacement to redeem himself.' YOU CAN'T REDEEM HAVING A SCUM ROLE PM. If he was really convinced DrMy was scum, why would he indicate willingness to unvote as soon as the replacement 'redeemed' his actions, presumably meaning by posting a decent amount and offering some arguments? At best, he's voting to express disapproval of DrMy's playstyle. (But apparently he hates policy lynching). It's certainly not the act of someone who thinks he's got scum in his sights. Notice that despite the fact that he was apparently convinced BabyBlue was scum, he's also not paid any attention to Rhinox today.

[Tebow]

Re: Arugula pointing out that Katsuki was hinting power, I kinda think that was a dumb town thing to do rather than a scum thing. It would have been better if he'd just blatantly sheeped and taken the heat that came with it, but hey ho. I had a similar difficulty with trying to ascertain whether Kats was actually hinting power or acting like he might have in order to make people sheep what is just a gut feeling or something, hence this post:

+ BBMolla looks like he's genuinely scumhunting. Was also willing to admit to policy lynching, which is a town sign.

LOOKS LIKE "genuinely scumhunting" =/= town.
Plus there are reasons as to why he's scum.

How confident are you that these 'reasons' are valid?

Had Kats responded with 'very' I was prepared to sheep, but he either missed or ignored the question.

The thing to do now is not to make Katsuki claim. It's to make BBMolla claim, and then Katsuki can say whether he is still confident BB is scum. The advantage of this is that it doesn't allow him, if scum, to tailor his fakeclaim to whatever Kats might have - imagine Kats claims gunsmith and BBMolla then claims something that would have a gun. By the same token, if BBM's town and DOES have a specific role that might cause a false positive, then doing so uninformed makes it easier to have confidence in the claim.

So, despite Coug's scumminess,

Unvote, vote: BBMolla

I make this

Lynch minus three,

so no 'accidental' hammers please.

[Tebow]

There's a difference between a hardclaim, and a claim of 'I am/am not sure he's scum' though. If Katsuki has something, we don't need to out HOW he knows, but I don't believe what I've seen in thread is enough to lynch BB on. Nor do we want to give Kats wiggle room if he is scum leading a town lynch on a vague hint.

[Tebow]

I've decided on my vote for the day.

VOTE: StrangerCoug

He voted for people but he did not push their respective bandwagons. He did not try to get them lynched and has not pursued his previous lines of reasoning. This is scummy behaviour.

Agreed on the second, I'm starting to think the former might be an unpersuasive playstyle. When you're scum and pushing a counterwagon to your buddy, it doesn't make much sense to be deliberately ineffectual in doing so.

As for your point about the Katsuki sheep, well what do you expect town players to do if they are convinced someone is hinting info role but don't want to draw scum's attention to the fact? I'd expect them to behave exactly as Nikanor is.

And just so we're clear, Katsuki hasn't said he doesn't have role info, he's said he isn't a cop. His pronouncements are sufficiently vague that I still can't tell if he's hinting at some other role or not. He needs to come out and say outright whether or not he is sure BBMolla is scum.

BBMolla's reaction seems weird, too calm for a townie being wagoned on bullshit.

[Tebow]

I want Katsuki to hardclaim now, especially if he has a guilty on BBmolla.

Why? Scum does not need to know what Katsuki is right now.

Don't you think that if Katsuki really claimed to have a PR, that he has a huge damn target already on him?

Scum can tell pretty well whether Kats is a PR based on whether BBM is one of them or not. Town really needs to be told.

[Tebow]

By the way, borkjerfskin, why do you find me scummy?

(This is my favorite butchering of my name to date, btw.)
I thought you acted way too defensively when Nocmen attacked you with zero pressure.

Ooh, too defensive, that gets you enhanced scrutiny the rest of the way.

Why is it defensive to ask someone to explain why someone called his vote bad? 'Bad vote' isn't necessarily an attack. If Nocmen had some reason to think that BBM was unlikely scum, what's wrong with wanting him to share it? Never mind to resolve the issue of whether he's calling the vote scummy or merely suggesting that Gooner was barking up the wrong tree.

Feel like we're in a holding pattern, waiting for Katsuki to stop being coy with us.

[Tebow]

Is this not the 'offending post?'

Then point out how it's a bad vote. Point out what is wrong with my logic. Point out how this usage of bad logic makes me scum.

Because, yes, obviously, I read it.

It looks to me more like a player who wants people to give reasons he can analyze than someone who... well, your argument is so terrible that I can't even fathom out which scum thought process you are alleging. He was scum and saw someone, he thought, attack him, and he asked the 'attacker' to give his reasons because [?]

What is [?] What is the reason why scum, in particular, would want to know why someone was attacking him?

[Tebow]

Why's this suddenly a good lynch when you've seriously not even mentioned him the entire game?

Just because I haven't mentioned him doesn't mean I haven't been reading his posts. So far he's just been playing like the usual StrangerCoug, which is enough for a vote imo.

Can you clarify your meaning? Is the 'usual StrangerCoug' incredibly antitown to the extent that he needs to be policy lynched, is he scummy for sticking too strictly to his meta, or has he simply not given you any particular reason to think him town while other players have?

[Tebow]

Is it just me or does it feel like only about four people are actually playing?

[Tebow]

Because it's totally impossible for you to scumhunt until he does that?

[Tebow]

Because it's totally impossible for you to scumhunt until he does that?

No, I am comfortable with my vote on BB, at least until Katsuki clears it up.

We undoubtedly need an unambiguous resolution of the Kats/BB issue. But if everyone just stops until that happens, it's not going to be good for town. If Kats comes out and says 'Oh shucks guys, I don't have role info, he's just REALLY SCUMMY' then where do you go next?

[Tebow]

Still not really digging SC lynch.

Arugula, Katsuki clarified, it wasn't role related.

No he didn't. He said 'I'm not claiming anything but BBMOLLA SCUM."

Which could easily be read as 'I am certain that BBM is scum but I'm not claiming anything else.' Basically he's trying this cutesy ambiguous garbage, when he needs to answer a straight yes or no to 'Do you know for sure BBM is scum?"

Also, if not SC then WHOM?

[Tebow]

Right, we got the quote from Kats that has to be a direct lie if Bbm is town. We know he's not leaving wriggle room. Now let's lynch BBMolla.

[Tebow]

Giitah, vote BBMolla then you can read overnight.

Another point of note: kdowns has talked about literally nothing apart from the criticism of him and empty game theory. Zero scumhunting.

[Tebow]

He has said clearly and unambiguously that you are scum. It's laughable to think that 'PM from dramonic says you're scum' means anything but a claim of role information. The fact that you're not even considering that he might be scum firms up my resolve. That complete lack of omgus instinct isn't normal for town.

[Tebow]

unvote

What. On. Earth. I. Don't. Even.

[Tebow]

Molla, have you personally seen Katsuki pull a derp gambit like this before?

(And btw, it was fail. Not the reaction test itself, but dragging it out for over a week when it seemed like half the game was waiting to see if he was serious).

[Tebow]

@Nikanor

can you elaborate on your reasons for being comfortable lynching GNR but not kdowns?

I'm kind of loathe to lynch anyone who's really been contributing seriously to the discussion (and yes, full of ridiculous arguments as he is, that includes SC. I kinda feel like he might end up being a defaulty kinda lynch, because he's the scummiest of six or so people who are actually playing the game, but that doesn't actually mean he's scum relative to the whole game). Of course, I don't actually want to lynch people who've requested replacement and left the game (drmyshotgun/Acronach) without giving the chance to claim either. DTMaster also claimed a short-term V/LA a week ago, but hasn't returned and probably needs replacing as well.

GNR hasn't been posting for the last week because he's been V/LA. He's scummy, so he needs to pick it up when he gets back. Someone proposed a lurkpurge rule in MD recently. He suggested the criterion for people it could be used on to be 'fewer posts than the mod.' The following players have more posts than the mod: Arugula, BBMolla, Bork, Gooner, Katsuki, Nikanor, StrangerCoug, Tebow. So less than half the game have been more prolific than our mod, and Nik, Kats and Gooner only barely. (The Babyblue/Rhinox slot is obviously over, though entirely on BabyBlue posts, and Rhinox has been outposted 12-4 by Dram since he replaced in).

So, I would suggest we concentrate our attention on the set of people who've been here the whole time, haven't requested replacement or gone V/LA, and posted fewer times than the mod. That set is CrashTextDummie, Trevor, and kdowns.

[Tebow]

Because their slots not having contributed anything appears not to be a deliberate tactic, and there's the possibility we get better reads on them when the replacements are up to speed. Meanwhile, kdowns has posted two straight prod dodges with nothing else in them.

Rhinox' start is undoubtedly poor, but I lean towards BabyBlue being town, because even for someone as self-obsessed as she, she seemed to have literally no interest in talking about Jackal, and that kinda gives me the impression that she was solely interested in herself game-wise (ie didn't have partners). Not that strong a read, but I'd rather lynch one of the three named today.

CTD in particular, actually. I just took a look at Team Mafia where he played. He proposed a massclaim, stating that his reasons were due to that particular format being especially conducive to massclaim.

He's hardly talked about anything other than massclaim here. I could see him talking about a theory issue he's pushed before as town, and hide behind it in order to lurk and do no actual scumhunting. If you look at his ISO as town there, he pushes massclaim early, but does move onto scumhunting with real vigor later on. Here? Nada.

Vote: CrashTextDummie

[Tebow]

CTD, call it a mischaracterization (I'm grateful to you for avoiding that other similar word) but just compare the two ISOs. My recollection of you is that you have talked about exclusively about massclaim, and not taken a strong position on anyone. Of the three players that have been in all along and undercontributing, you are the one who could be a real asset to town if you wished to be. You were not up until the point when I voted you. Responding to slight pressure with a promise to improve is better than not acknowledging how your play has been substandard, but it doesn't make you town.

[Tebow]

*talked almost exclusively about massclaim. (Which I believe is a distraction, and at best would lead to people throwing their theory opinions at one another).

[Tebow]

The more I hear Tebow talk about CrashTextDummie talk about nothing about massclaim, the more I want to sheep him.

Defecate or get off the pot.

[Tebow]

It absolutely is alignment telling and it's not in any way fallacious. I'll explain more when I have time tomorrow morning.

[Tebow]

Right. CTD.

Why my case isn't outdated: He actually behaved in the scummy ways listed. I would expect decent scum, when called out for not scumhunting, to start doing it. He returned to the thread and immediately started posting content immediately after being called out. (And even if I'm wrong here, I'm delighted with my initial vote simply because it has forced him to start contributing). He wasn't on the Jackal wagon, expressing mild disapproval. His 'big scumhunting post' at the start of D2 consists of labelling half the game town without reasons, and then voting for the biggest wagon of who was left. Nothing on why BBMolla was scummier than, say, Arugula. Yes, he's been better lately, but scrutiny tends to draw people out.

Why it's not fallacious: 'I have done much more scumhunting than the others listed.' He's done more scumhunting than kdowns, who appears to be the VI. Congratulations. The fact is he's a veteran player, and meta analysis has shown him doing strong scumhunting in prior games. Yes, he talked about massclaim in Team Mafia, but the ratio of stuff talking about scumhunting to stuff talking about massclaim is seriously skewed here compared with there. Checkout #590. Five pages into day two, three paragraphs about massclaim and a vote with no reasoning supplied. No arguments to try to convince anyone.

[Tebow]

OK, first reply to CTD:

At best this is a null argument (decent town have just as much incentive to step it up a notch when called out), at worst it's a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't".

Well yeah, of course it's a null argument. My suspicion of you isn't increased by your starting to post a lot better after being called out, it just isn't reduced because it's the logical thing to do as scum. My reasons for suspecting you come from before that.

And again, I was repeatedly prodded by the mod, that you happened to vote me just before I got back to the game was largely coincidental.

And this can't be proven either way. It may be true, but it would be an awfully big coincidence that you just so happen to return immediately you get pressured. That said, looking over again causes me to notice that although your reaction was the very next post, it was two hours later, which makes your argument somewhat more believable.

He wasn't on the Jackal wagon, expressing mild disapproval.

And I have since explained why.

You want a cookie? Offering an explanation doesn't make the suspicious action go away. I've got an explanation for why I was off the wagon too, I'd bet everyone has. If they don't, it's probably more a competence thing than an alignment thing.

That said,

Unvote: CrashTextDummie

because he's actually playing now, so we may be able to read him off later actions so long as he doesn't resume lurking, and I'd rather at this point get rid of one of the two more useless lurkers.

kdowns has posted in SEVENTEEN different other threads since he last posted here, including /inning to Forum 62 Mafia and confirming a pre-in for another game. Meta like this suggests that kdowns is a complete VI and that his play is normal for him. Does anyone know of any tells he has?

[Tebow]

I still want to lynch Acronach because of my earlier case on him, but I would be fine with a Rhinox lynch as well, simply because he hasn't improved the BabyBlue slot and he ignored my calling out of his vote on him.

Are you sufficiently sure that Acronach is scum to be willing to lynch him without a claim, since he's requested replacement?

Rhinox isn't a good lynch today. He looked a little suspect early on, but he's been scumhunting pretty hard from #688 onwards.

I also went back and re-read Jackal, and that makes me feel a lot better about CTD, since it reminded me that Jackal's vote for CTD looked 'opportunistic' rather than 'bus' to me.

Basically, the argument that's compelling for lurkerlynching is that if we want more time to try to get reads on the replacements, and we don't want to lynch the people who are active and making arguments etc, that only leaves the lurkers. I'm really not convinced in any way that the scummy-looking things SC has done are actually any scummier than repeated prod-dodges, and I think additional time is going to be more useful in reading the SCs of this world than the kds. Broadly speaking, effort is the biggest towntell. It may be hard to tell the actual scum from the numerous people who haven't got time or whatever, but the fact is, when there's this much lurking there's little incentive for scum not to, simply because the pool of potential lurkers is so large. The reason I've had so much difficulty picking between Trevor and kdowns is that both of them are always like this according to my meta research. Problem is, that doesn't mean they're not scum.

So hey, let's roll. If nothing else, this should make the promised 're-read' hurry up.

Vote: kdowns

We also need to talk more about day one, which admittedly is difficult because half of those who looked scummy flaked, but the is-he-isn't-he situation with Katsuki basically cut off any attempt to analyze D1 because people were waiting to see if he was serious.

[Tebow]

I'm not sure if this was intentional, but since the original question was directed at Gooner, I'd just like to ask that you not answer questions directed at other people. It makes trying to read people based on their responses much harder when it's possible that they are being fed answers.

I didn't recall who it was originally aimed at, but the case needed to be made anyway because

I

want to lynch lurkers, and if you don't try to convince people it doesn't happen (Hi, StrangerCoug). I'm not going to hold back on making my case because someone else asked someone else to make a similar case, we need to get wagoning. So that's why we should lynch a lurker. If anyone feels that a specific non-lurker is sufficiently likely to be scum to make it a much better lynch, let's hear it.

[Tebow]

The possible "three mafiosi" slip that Giilah made makes me happy with his lynch. It's not a number of scum that I would have guessed, since 20% is on the low end of number of scum in a game of 20, but it's not impossible, and we could be dealing with an odd setup because of excluded roles. Aside from that the fact that today he's been voting null reads rather than scum reads doesn't read as genuine to me.

Oh, and I don't tend to buy 'slips' in general, but I agree that four mafia total would be unlikely. I'd expect four each group in a twofold game, but there was only one kill, so if there's only one tonight we can likely rule this out. Basically, we might well be able to rule out it being a slip when we have worked out more of the setup, so I'd suggest only pushing him today if you'd be happy lynching him without the 'slip.'

[Tebow]

Those are not good odds to lynch. Particularly when you there are perfectly strong cases against Arugula and Giitah. Arguments to the effect of "even if he's town, he's not helping" don't hold much sway either when the town is in as good a shape as this one is with one scum and only a VT dead.

Actually, no one ever said 'Even if he's town, he's not helping much.' My problem was that he'd never give us any reason to think him town. I'm fine with the claim though, Nurse is a very unusual scum claim to make especially when under hardly any pressure, and it likely means the scum will have to choose between shooting a VI and leaving a power role alive (which could be crucial if we get an investigative role claim later in the game). kdowns did say 'The doctor' rather than 'a doctor' implying that there definitely is one, and that's a pretty risky thing to claim since you would have thought before we started that someone would ban doc. In the absence of someone claiming a ban, I don't want to lynch him, ever.

unvote

That said, I just don't get a feeling of scum off of Giitah or Arugula either. I'm open to being convinced if someone explains to me in nice short words why either is obvscum. I'm leaning Trevor because he is both a lurker and one of those who were on the Jackal wagon without really expending much effort pushing it. (Contrast DTMaster, who has the look of a town player who doesn't have much time but is trying to be as focused as possible in what time he has).

[Tebow]

@Mod

, can you update the first post with asterisks for all those who have requested replacement? There's been so many it's hard to keep track. Also, Nikanor has not posted in a week.

[Tebow]

But what would be the point? It'd be much simpler say, driving the wagon to lynch for one. Considering I've totally faked cop claims as both alignments before...

Well, yes, but that doesn't mean you'd survive doing it. There are plenty of people who'd lynch you regardless. Me, for one. Whereas by doing it but pulling out, you get a significant amount of 'scum wouldn't be so reckless' cred, and you also managed to kill discussion for a full week. I mean, I'm not going to assume it's scummy, because it does appear to be your style, but it's important to remember that 'Playing like he normally does' =/= town.

[Tebow]

Giitah

(fairly certain he's slipped twice now? One where he confirmed that he slipped? I don't know why this lynch hasn't happened)

I see exactly what you're saying, but it's not a slip. Clearly, it's Giitah saying he made a 'slip' that made him look like scum, rather than a slip that gave away that he WAS scum, because literally no-one is that stupid. Misapplied the terminology, rather than gave away his alignment.

That said, I don't exactly hate this wagon, and there's little time to do anything else. So

announce intent to hammer

, Giitah claim please.

[Tebow]

I don't need to try and narrow down the scumteam just yet, there are three scum. Besides, I don't believe in calling the scumteam when it's obvious there are still a lot of them in play. Instead, I'll choose to narrow down the list of suspects and possible lynchs, and from there I'll choose who I want to kill.

Normally, I would consider not answering this, but seeing as I major scumslip'd earlier and I don't think getting myself lynched would be helpful to the Town...
I'm voting for Arugula (null read) for pressure's sake, since he's the one I'm currently scumhunting right now. doh.

Rhinox, here is the original 'slip' and the post where Giitah calls it a slip. I don't really see it, but MemphisWill looked like one of the likely bussers on the Jackal wagon. Nocmen lays out his case against Giitah here, basically accusing him of fencesitting and cognitive dissonance with regard to his reads.

@CTD, I notice that you have repeatedly said stuff like 'there is a good case against Giitah' and 'There are at least two scum in four people including Giitah' but you have never said

why

. Should I take it that you agree with something someone else has said? What do YOU think is the single scummiest thing about him?

[Tebow]

OK, that's a much better version of the case than I've seen to date.

[Tebow]

ISO me. If you can't see it then say something.

Zdenek. Make a case then. Or better, a two-line summary of one since there are too many walls already.

[Tebow]

The lack of a counterwagon, imo, speaks more to the inability of the town to even find one wagon that more than two people would accept. If you look back three days, then there was a rainbow votecount. Once Giitah got to four, it seems like everyone basically piled on to avoid no-lynch. I agree that basically unanimous lynching is bad, but I'm not sure what we can do. Zdenek is V/LA, you'd have to get the entire Giitah wagon to agree on, and move to, another candidate, and I don't think you can do that in *at most* fourteen hours.

Look at those off the wagon:

DTMaster requested replacement, Nikanor just returned after being absent for a full week, Trevor requested replacement, kdowns may be the worst habitual lurker of all time, GNR's requested replacement, Giitah himself (not proposing an alternative candidate) and I've expressed a willingness to hammer. There's probably only Rhinox and latterly Nik in the game who haven't seemed resigned to this lynch.

And the thing is, I think the actual case is OK, plus if Giitah lives, he's going to be that 'Scummy looking claimed VT' who won't get nightkilled so we'll probably have to do this all again later. The problem is that we've had to cram essentially the whole day into three RL days, I don't think there's much better we can do here. I'll give Giitah a few hours to post any scumhunting he might want to do, assuming he actually wants to change the habits he's shown since he replaced in, but I think he has to die.

@Mod, the last VC had Coug and Arugula voting for two people. Also, can we PLEASE have a time for deadline?

[Tebow]

Yeah, that makes sense. Assuming he knows.

[Tebow]

It is a plain lie to say that I think you have done nothing scummy.

[Tebow]

Specifically: I don't think there are many players scummier than you in the game, and I don't think it's possible to get a wagon on any of them before deadline.

[Tebow]

If I die overnight, please someone force BBMolla to actually make a case on someone.

[Tebow]

You wished you pushed harder for my lynch, but are voting for SC?

That doesn't strike me as surprising or contradictory in the slightest.

[Tebow]

But first things, how does everyone feel about a mass ban claim? I don't know if this came up earlier (I think only mass claim did) but this would decrease the potential for mafia fakeclaiming/gambits in my opinion

Massclaiming bans shouldn't be too problematic.

I really can't see the benefit, tbh, and think it would likely increase the potential for mafia fakeclaims.

[Tebow]

Also, we should probably do an actual massclaim tomorrow.

[Tebow]

Also, we should probably do an actual massclaim tomorrow.

Please don't start this again. Are you serious or not? I don't want to be called scum for ignoring this dumb idea.

Please explain why you think waiting longer than day four for massclaim is optimal.

[Tebow]

And I am still opposed to massclaim. Scum will just claim vanilla and the PRs will be outed.

Right. But what's the point of massclaiming at all? Because it allows us to narrow things down.

On day one, scum have plenty of time to kill off all the power roles before it gets anywhere near LyLo. Admittedly, the disastrous consequences of Day One Massclaim would have been severely mitigated by the dead busdriver, but it would still have been a negative EV move. They get to take out the most dangerous town roles before they've achieved ANYTHING.

By day four, information roles will have three results (or non-results) each. I moderately prefer day four to day three, because I think the mass information dump is more useful when roles have three nights' worth of stuff to dump in thread than two. By the time night four rolls around, you're starting to see the calculus change significantly in terms of the risk/reward of further delay - each result probably has diminishing marginal value, while the chance of someone dying with a lot of important stuff known to them but unclaimed goes up over time.

Plus, it allows us to start eliminating possibilities/getting people to check in on each other with more than one lynch to go before lylo - which I think is useful.

Also, note that we have a claimed backup doc who didn't die overnight. That means that we're going to get at least one more night of every non-protective PR at the least, and that's assuming that either kdowns is killed or the doc is outed today. And if there isn't a doc, which calls kdowns' claim into question, then we won't find that out until massclaim.

Too early massclaims are disastrous. Too late are pointless, or in lylo often directly counterproductive. Mid-game is the time for it.

@BBMolla: Please present your Zdenek case, like I asked you to yesterday.

[Tebow]

BTW, I agree that Gooner's analysis is a house of cards, I'm not sure how I feel about its effect on alignment. Gut is suspicious, head says that amount of effort is probtown, even if the results aren't. Prob need to meta his usual scumhunting style.

[Tebow]

OK, I meta'd Gooner. He has two completed games, one of each alignment. The biggest difference I saw between the two is that in the scum game, his posts were in general a lot longer, and he did a lot more talking about game theory, whereas as town his posts were shorter with simpler arguments and more focus on scumhunting.

[Tebow]

@Gooner: I'm torn. Your day one play more resembled your town play, today your massive theory-heavy VCA and your last post have me leaning the other way. Ironically, I'm now much more comfortable with the exact parts of your game I first suspected. I'm kinda lost here (BBpalooza day one followed by a day two that was just destroyed by replacements and the week-long reaction test) but I don't

think

I'd want to wagon you today myself, but I can't be bothered to fight against it either.

[Tebow]

Hey, forgot this game existed. Post after sleeping.

Far too many of these kind of posts in this game.

[Tebow]

Vote: StrangerCoug

Same pattern as with Baby day one. Oversoul's a known derpy player, going after him in addition to BB makes this look like a pattern of going for low-hanging fruit. And yeah, so what? He finds a lot of people suspect. This game has had a lot of antitownness.

[Tebow]

To be fair, before you criticise everyone in the game, it has to be remembered that BabyBlue's megaspam made it difficult for anyone who fell even the least bit behind to catch back up.

[Tebow]

Really huge. He's clearly saying 'I know it's impossible for every one of these people to be scum' not 'I know there aren't any scum in these people.' No-one would be dumb enough to say 'I know none of these ten people are scum, but I want them all dead anyway.' I mean, even Giitah's ones that looked like obvious slips weren't. How likely do you think that one is?

[Tebow]

NO. YOU. TELL. US. WHY. YOU. ARE. VOTING. HIM!

[Tebow]

^
|

This is really derp but I don't think it's scummy.

[Tebow]

So... coug throws out another FOS because he disapproves of a player's playstyle? Color me unsurprised.

[Tebow]

You missed me, jelly.

He didn't 'miss' anyone, he commented where he had something new or useful to say. He gave reads on like six players out of fifteen. I much prefer that to the likes of this.

I totally disagree that it's the right town thing to do to ask a player who doesn't give a read on you to provide it, and that doing otherwise is scummy. If anything, being overly concerned about the read on your own slot is scummy imho.

I'd agree with PJ that BBMolla is annoying, but I don't so much see scum there anymore. The whole fake case thing makes perfect sense as a town thought process given what he was saying before it. And I'm getting a 'standing on principle' vibe off him.

[Tebow]

I'm not sure. Day one I thought I saw someone who was trying to scumhunt and poke at things. I didn't really see a great case until you entered. What you say sounds persuasive, but I'm trying to figure out if you're right or just have good rhetorical ability, and it's taking me a little while.

I will say that I don't think I buy the 'setting out for scum how to beat massclaim' argument (I don't think his original position on massclaim actually makes any sense) but do think that 'Day two is a uniquely bad point at which to massclaim' seems like a really WEIRD theory position, one which would require some explaining. Early or late but not middle is the exact opposite of my own position. I intend to meta-mine this to see if he's expressed this kind of opinion before as town, if he has I think it likely null. If not, then I suppose this could be a reaction to knowing that without a bus driver scum were in a tough spot.

[Tebow]

OK, so I dug up two Nocmen games where someone proposed early day one massclaim. One where he simply said no and didn't elaborate. The other:

I understand the benefits of a mass claim, but not in D1 when there is no other information to back them up or prove someone wrong.

Also, hf, at my possible contradictory statements - I was referring to not being sold with the claim on D1, but stating in later days with more evidence, I will be okay with a mass claim

This is kinda old meta (he's been away for a while) but seems to make a 'D1, but not later' position seem insincere.

Unvote, vote: Nocmen

[Tebow]

Well I suppose we'll have to disagree then. I think it's very town to keep other players from getting lazy and skirting through a game without attempting to get reads on

all

the other players. Not less than half.

False dichotomy. You can be trying to get reads on everyone, but only have/express firm reads on a subset at a given point in time. IE, I think it's a waste of time talking about how multiple players are null.

[Tebow]

Right. Massclaim. Now.

Anyone have a problem with Arugula then popcorn?

[Tebow]

The idea was to get everyone, or a majority, to agree before we started. And for you to nominate the next claimant. There can be problems if the claims start before everyone has commented, because you sometimes find substantial numbers disagreeing and you don't want the claim to be stopped after one or two have outed themselves, because that's the worst of all worlds.

[Tebow]

Imho, the no-kill makes a massclaim better, since we may be able to work out what caused it, leading to either a confirmed townie or confirmed scum. It's day four, and we haven't seen a dead doc, and we have a claimed nurse. That means we should get at least two more days out of the best PR.

[Tebow]

I'm with a mass claim today. In retrospect I still feel that it was a mistake not to claim on Day 1. Oh well.... hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Claiming D1 with a scum bus driver would have been a disaster. We can't assume, had there been a massclaim, we would have lynched Jackal. You can make the argument for D2, but only VTs have died since then. So in so far as waiting for D4 was a gamble, it was a gamble town won.

I'm just wondering if a full mc is best, or just roles, keeping bans out of it, in an attempt to catch a lie?

Roles and night actions. Bans once all role and action claims are in. Ban claim order doesn't matter.

[Tebow]

I don't actually expect it to achieve anything either (as opposed to simply asking people to claim any bans on things that were actually claimed). But I don't see the harm. The important thing with the bans is to realize they're unimportant and not waste a lot of time talking about them.

[Tebow]

I'll claim this evening once a few more people have posted, ie we have a quorum in support of massclaim.

Feel free to go with 'LOLscumstalling' (as opposed to 'lolhypocrite' which I'm sure would have come out had I claimed immediately).

[Tebow]

Is this popcorn claiming or town preference claiming?

Tebow, why are you trying to proactively stifle a discussion that was very likely not going to come up given the play of today? Overly defensive.

Sorry, I'm unclear as to what you're accusing me of.

Which

discussion would you be accusing me of trying to stifle, and how?

[Tebow]

And popcorn.

[Tebow]

Hmmmmm. OK. Well as far as I was concerned, I felt like Arugula was (and may have been trying to) put me in a position where either I had to delay (and get accused of stalling) or claim immediately (and get accused of hypocrisy given that I had earlier advocated waiting for more people to check in). So it's more like, well, I'm damned if I do and I'm damned if I don't, and I wanted to point that out.

[Tebow]

Well, I said before that I wanted to get more people to comment before anyone else claimed. You can't be surprised I don't change my position because it's me who's up.

[Tebow]

Right, VT.

Popcorn to LadyLambdaDelta.

[Tebow]

I figured the other guy was kdowns, who hasn't posted in ten days.

[Tebow]

Also, Tebow, way to popcorn to a lurker on an already incredibly slow-moving game.

I popcorned to a new replacement (And deliberately so). How was I supposed to know she'd need prodding immediately on entry?

Also, the lurkers have to claim sometime. If we just have all the actives claim then hang around waiting for the lurkers, we still have to wait for the lurkers.

[Tebow]

She's posted elsewhere on site today anyway.

[Tebow]

And incidentally, it was more like 36 hours, and the thread opened on a Sunday, and she's posted elsewhere ten minutes before I popcorned to her. No reason to believe she wouldn't have been able to post later on last night at all.

[Tebow]

I'm not doing jack SHIT until I read this entire game. Sorry, you're just gonna have to wait.

OH HECK NO.

I popcorned to LLD SPECIFICALLY because I wanted her to claim before she'd read the thread because that wouldn't be an issue for town (just look at your role pm) but would make life more difficult for scum.

And no Nik, she doesn't get to opt out of the popcorn process just because you happen to have a town read. I'm not picking anyone else to go next. LLD needs to go next, and she needs to do so immediately. If she won't, she needs to be put to L-1 to force her to.

Also, commenting during a massclaim is antitown. So Gooner absolutely should wait.

[Tebow]

Vote: LLD

The above is not a claim. And Lady L seems perfectly willing to do *something* ie bicker with Gooner, but not to claim even though it's her turn. There's no town reason to be holding up the massclaim like this.

[Tebow]

Irrelevant. Town has decided to massclaim. If you're town all you're doing

And there's a ton of scum motive. You both curtail discussion (less time between the end of the massclaim and deadline) and you give yourself more opportunity to work out what the most beneficial fakeclaim would be/who might be a power role you can get to claim next.

You're not a newbie. You know that when town is massclaiming, you participate when it's your turn. You know that making the massclaim last longer hurts town. You know that stopping massclaim after a couple of people have outed their roles is the worst of all worlds.

Now, claim or die.

[Tebow]

Sure, it totally sucks having the massclaim dragged out like this. We're going to have another day two.

But we absolutely cannot, on principle, allow someone to get out of massclaiming when the town is because they don't feel like it. This is a very antitown bluff, and it needs to be called.

[Tebow]

Popcorn onwards. And spare us the stupid little hissy fit.

[Tebow]

Also, LLD and CTD should totally hang out.

[Tebow]

You're bad at this.

We'll see. Unless dramonic games involve ABSOLUTELY NO information roles, or heck otherwise confirmable power roles, then I don't see why 'It's a dramonic game' is such a big deal.

With a nurse claim (and it's a nurse claim stating 'THE' doctor, not 'a' doctor) it's either going to be two days after today before the scum can off the best PR, or we have confirmed scum. Plus, we get the night results. It's just not worth risking that for the potential of one more day's results when we risk having the roles not claim and die overnight.

As for your roleblocker example. That's fine. Then we lynch the guy the RB blocked, and find out in fact it was a doc protect that stopped the kill. Genius.

Also, I don't see why you think it would have been dumb of your predecessor not to ban a scum role when he wouldn't know which side he'd be on.

[Tebow]

-

And dram-mod games have a meta for loving odd roles, and the banning mechanic has taken out the obvious. Not to mention a meta for messing with player's heads.

Not that that would stop me playing one.

That would be a good reason not to try to outguess the mod, but the point of massclaiming now isn't to outguess the mod (in fact avoiding OGM in lylo is one of the advantages of doing it a day or two early) it's to get role information out there.

[Tebow]

Unvote

Because there's an outside possibility of something really dumb happening. Gooner given his avatar is presumably in a European timezone so is unlikely to post until the morning.

[Tebow]

Everywhere except Asia. I'm talkin US/Euro timezones here as I think that's where the vast majority are.

[Tebow]

Nope. Just pointing out that it probably isn't going to be worth hanging around the site all night waiting for him to post.

[Tebow]

I make these players as still having to claim:

StrangerCoug, Nikanor, PJ/CTD, Chronopie, YYR

Let's see if we can finish the claims today?

[Tebow]

*In addition to the already-popcorned Majiffy.

[Tebow]

It was Coug or LLD for me.

[Tebow]

A reminder: kdowns said THE doctor. Hammering this home because if there isn't one, either kdowns is lying, or Dram is lying to his players (does he have any history of that kind of bastardry?)

There are certain interesting permutations of these claims that I will discuss once all claims are in.

Arugula looks like he's mudslinging. But Arugula always looks like that.

[Tebow]

A reminder: kdowns said THE doctor.

Careful. We can't assume that is the role PM wording and we can't ask kdowns to comfirm if it is without modkills.

We can't ask kdowns anything, he's being replaced.

But I think you're being far too cautious. The point of the rule is to stop people quoting strings of words in order to confirm themselves to people who have similarly formatted PMs. Clarifying whether your PM uses a definite or indefinite article to refer to the existence of another role seems to be the exact sort of thing that you should be OK to do. It's no more egregious than clarifying whether your PM says 'Day' or 'Night' or stating whether a tracker PM tells you you'll find out if your target takes an action, or find out whether she takes any action.

[Tebow]

Right. Let's get the bans out ASAP then get on with it.

I banned neighbors (didn't want to deal with the inherent 'would the mod include a scum neighbor' wifom).

[Tebow]

My slot banned roleblockers

All roleblockers?

[Tebow]

o my thoughts are the following:

Doctor-Watcher is broken (Can cover each other until Lylo). Even more so with BG and nurse. But so would be bus driver-scum watcher (Can switch any claimed PR with random player, and also watch said random player, therefore both catching any protective roles targeting the claimed PR AND render that protection ineffective). So if Gooner is scum, he has to be outright lying, and that doesn't seem that likely.

The way to handle SS is to hammer it in endgame if it makes it that far. Unlikely to be a scum role, could be a fakeclaim (can't be proven) but Nik's brashness makes me think this is unlikely. Scum would not want it alive in LyLo.

Likewise, bodyguard is a darn risky scum claim... the 'Why is this guy still alive' factor. (BG is a role which really benefits from massclaim, incidentally). IMHO it was a mistake to protect at all without any PR claims, and should have really been on kdowns... but I can't really blame anyone for not protecting kdowns.

The tracker claim, really doesn't say anything to me in terms of alignment. Common scum role, and scumvenient actions... a corpse and a 'Derp forgot.' That said I didn't massively suspect Rhinox beforehand.

I was actually theorizing the doctor might be scum given how much else we had, but the successful protect suggests otherwise. YYR does need to tell us who Borkjerfkin protected, though.

Scum Nurse is completely possible but a scum nurse would still have to protect the obvious target, so can live for now. There is definitely a distinct possibility that kdowns is scum having survived two days as the only outed PR though. Then again, he's kdowns.

It'll be interesting to see the rest of the bans. If everyone is truthful here, I'm almost certain there's a ninja unless someone wants to claim to have banned it.

Pretty sure there's scum in the obvious suspects (Arugula, Coug, Zdenek). Think I wanna lynch Coug first. He seems to keep wriggling off the hook.

IMHO night action wise, BG should DEFINITELY cover the tracker, everyone else should be allowed a free hand. Doc and watcher get to play 'Do ya feel lucky punk, well do ya?' with the scum with respect to one another.

[Tebow]

And when I say tracker, I mean watcher. Herp derp.

[Tebow]

And when I say Borf, I mean Acronach. Double Derp.

[Tebow]

BTW, I don't like the idea of directing everyone. Firstly, we get another lynch with a successful doc protect, and there's no chance of that if we direct the doc. Secondly, we can read the PRs based on what they claim to have done. There also may WELL be some kinda weird scum interference role if there's not a ninja. I think too detailed a plan leaves us prone to something unforeseen. We need to protect the watcher with SOMETHING, and in the short run it's better that that be the BG, but other than that, we leave a free hand. Gets a bit more complicated tomorrow, but we can cross that bridge when we come to it.

[Tebow]

The problem with your 'Direct them so that they confirm each other' thing is that you basically destroy any chance the town has not only of getting a missed kill, but catching scum with investigative roles. I think it's much more likely if there's scum there, they've claimed their actual role rather than outright lied, so the value in 'confirming' role but not alignment is limited. Certainly, none of the choices you've listed are indefensible, but I'd rather ensure the best info role (Watcher) lives and then let the rest do what they think best.

[Tebow]

I think most of the people I was particularly suspicious of claimed VT anyway.

Also, if there IS a ninja, that person almost certainly claimed VT.

[Tebow]

Not really any point in claiming bans after massclaim.

Some benefit specifically regarding scum-specific roles that were banned.

PR wise, the doc and the Bodyguard are clearly legit. Scum claiming bodyguard is suicidal. I really don't think it's you either. One or two in the remaining three?

[Tebow]

Good point. Let's just lynch the scummiest player.

Vote: Coug

[Tebow]

Gooner can watch who he wants. But he has to answer for his decision.

[Tebow]

Tebow, assuming that you read this post – which I take as a given since you posted later in the sign-up, why would you ban Neighborhoods when you already knew CrashTextDummie was going to ban them for you?

Why on earth would you assume that? No, I didn't read that post.

[Tebow]

For the record, I just checked, I had already submitted my neighbor ban nine days before CTD made that post.

[Tebow]

No thoughts regarding who scum is?

[Tebow]

You guys realize that it would've taken LLD literally two minutes to look through both of her predecessors' isos for claims, right?

The point wasn't that she could go see her predecessors' posts. She would have known her predecessors hadn't claimed from the very fact she was being asked to participate in massclaim. The point was that if she was scum, knowledge of the gamestate would be useful in helping her decide whether it was better to claim her actual power (if she had one) or VT. And there's scum benefit in doing even more harm to already low town morale by slowing down the game even more.

More to the point though, Coug. Let's look at his suspicions:

1. Arugula does something silly and antitown. Coug votes him without thinking about whether it would actually make sense for scum to draw attention to a potential town PR slip rather than just quietly kill them at night.
2. Babyblue. Biggest VI ever, incredibly annoying, very easy to point out how what she is doing is 'wrong.' No real argument for why spamming up the thread, annoying everyone and drawing tons of attention makes sense as a deliberate scumtactic. Attacking her seems guaranteed to raise noise/signal ratio.
3. Semantic nitpick of borkjerfkin based on interpreting 'fishing' as 'rolefishing' not 'reaction fishing.'
4. Vote to express disapproval of self-declared sheeping from Drmy.
5. Blatant sheep of me.
6. BBMolla vote. Nothing really wrong here.
7. Late hop onto Giitah townwagon: "Not here to stop a wagon on a scum read."
8. Jumps onto the Nocmen wagon late. Doesn't actually make any arguments, a handful of rhetorical questions.
9. Sheeps PJ and also expresses trendy LLD dislike.

I'm struggling to find the words to accurately sum up the scumminess of his play, but it basically boils down to this: Everytime someone does something derpy, or outlandish, or draws attention to him or herself, he's there to point out how that was 'Not the right play.' He doesn't seem to have any interest in probing into people's motives. He's jumped on pretty much all the flavor of the month type cases, whatever was popular at a given time. He nitpicks and sheeps, and I just don't see a person trying to find scum there.

[Tebow]

Not a fan of that kind of attitude, YYR. Coug vs Zdenek is a tough call, and an important one. I don't want the virtually-confirmed players going 'Meh, lynch both.'

[Tebow]

Nope. Towns just tend to lose when they're all like 'Let's just lynch everyone who's got any kind of wagon.'

[Tebow]

Oh yeah, and

@PJ

: I really think you're barking up the wrong tree with Nikanor. Faking SS makes much more sense for a scum who's under immediate pressure. The tradeoff of less likely to be lynched now for certain to be lynched at end game is a bad one for scum who aren't staring down the barrel. Plus, this game is at evens. Which means if we don't get a successful protect before the doc dies, we can lynch Nikanor and not cost ourselves a lynch by getting the top suspect to do the hammering. I don't see how 'He has fakeclaimed X as town before' leads to the conclusion he's likely to be fakeclaiming it as scum here. Also, it's completely possible that Dram would have gone with Venge-T but it was banned so went for a similar role that wasn't. Or that he put in a slightly different role to what he normally uses to punish OGM.

[Tebow]

Unexpected LA. Phone posts only til further notice.

[Tebow]

Or you could actually scumhunt.

[Tebow]

The quotes seem to make it self explanatory, no?

[Tebow]

Hyperbole isn't scummy. Ever played with Fate?

I do think the LLD thing is off base. I think she's frustrating and resistant to logic, but I'm getting stubborn townie who can't admit she was wrong.

More interested in Chronopie I think. Coug's last ditch attack on him coulda been distancing.

[Tebow]

Should have full access restored tomorrow. Will do full catchup then. Will say for now that Aru defending the most

criticized

player while jumping the actual biggest wagon pings the scumdar.

[Tebow]

Right. I'm back. I have no desire to engage with LLD's 'Hyperbole is in general scummy' argument, since it's that silly and she's shown herself to be incredibly stubborn, and it's a game theory matter anyway. I think hyperbole is a legitimately useful tool for town to exert extra pressure on someone. Though DRAM HAS REALLY INCLUDED SUCH COMPLICATED AND IMPOSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND ROLES IN THIS GAME LIKE.... Doctor? Still, annoying town.

BBMolla's town. It's the cockiness. And hammering a scum player while insisting he thinks he's town. Which means our little vanilla club apart from me is Zdenek, Arugula, Rhinox... and Chronopie (CTD excluded due to the doc protect).

Coug's

last ditch argument was that my slots ban of

sane

cop didn't make sense in accordance with the rules.
<snip>
imo, it was an attempt to divert attention from himself, onto a mislynch for rules reasons, instead of having to put together a paper-thin case.

Here's the thing. I don't think it was an actual attempt to get him lynched at all. I think this argument is SO terrible and pushed with such little conviction ("Chronopie is my top suspect because of what Petroleumjelly said," "It's hard enough when your case has virtually no takers") that it really doesn't look to me like Coug wanted him dead.

The Zdenek case isn't terrible, I had drmy as one of the most likely bussers on the wagon, and I don't think Coug went the whole game without distancing any partners. But I think CPie is more likely - he has produced 'helpful' posts like lists of who claimed what, but no scumhunting at all has come from that direction. Contrast Zdenek, who came into the game and immediately declared a couple of firm town reads, which can be dangerous for scum.

Vote: Chronopie

Does anyone have a strong read on Arugula either way they would like to share? I'm having trouble getting my head around him.

[Tebow]

Just noted that Coug did in fact distance Oversoul. Hmmmm.

[Tebow]

So, Zdenek lynch through sheer inertia when this day drags out til deadline and he's the only one with any kind of wagon?

[Tebow]

Hoping that a bit of VCA might stimulate conversation:

3. Gooner
4. Kdowns Elmo TeH AzN
6. Tebow
10. Guy_Named_RiggsMykonian Lady Lambdadelta
11. Acronach Majiffy
12. CrashTextDummie/PetroleumJelly
13. Trevor InflatablePie Chronopie
14. BabyBlue Rhinox
16. drmyshotgun Zdenek
18. BorkJerkfin YYR
19. BBmolla
20. Arugula

Those living on Jackal:

drmyshotgun (Zdenek), borkjerfkin (YYR), trevor (Chronopie), BBMolla, Gooner, Arugula

Those living off Jackal:

CTD, BabyBlue (Rhinox) Kdowns (Elmo), Myself, Acronach (Majiffy) GNR (LLD)

Oversoul was on the wagon, Coug off it.

Those living on Coug:

Me, YYR, Arugula, Majiffy, Rhinox, BBmolla

Those living off Coug:

Zdenek, LLD, CTD, Gooner, Elmo, Chronopie

Those living on both:

YYR, BBMolla, Arugula

Those off both:

CTD, LLD, Zdenek, Elmo.


Things I get: Arugula has been on every single lynch (as well as being on the leading wagon right now). I'm leaning towards this being merely vote incontinence, since he indiscriminately wagons both town and scum.

Zdenek and LLD's slots have been off both scum lynches.

It is really hard to keep track of who replaced whom with so many replacements, including multiply-replaced slots.

BBMolla jumped really late on both scum wagons, which kinda makes me distrust my town read on him (And, much as LLD gets on my nerves, the sudden switch from 'Oversoul is town and Coug scum because Coug is making a bad case on him' to 'Coug is town needs to die anyway' DOES need explaining given that we know both were scum).

Elmo is really hard to read on account of both holders of the slot being effectively absent when all the big things went down.

[Tebow]

Yes, Majiffy popping in daily to say that LLD is scum and Arugula popping in and saying she's town are totally helping matters here.

Guys. Please. Can SOMEONE who is not me take a look at Chrono?

[Tebow]

My bad.

[Tebow]

Also, Tebow, what case against me were you referring to?

You're making it sound like I agree in total with one player or other's arguments against you.

I more meant 'The case' as in 'The totality of reasons to suspect Zdenek.' Which include Drmyshotgun showing almost no interest in scumhunting, his vote of Jackal looking more like a bus than anyone else's whose slot is still alive, you saying you thought Coug was town, using the incredibly flawed 'scumslip' argument to justify suspicion of Giitah, suspecting LLD and BBMolla (who are dislikeable players and therefore easy to stir up resentment of them) without giving any real reason why their not being on Coug is scummier than, say, your not being on Coug. It feels to me like you decided you wanted LLD dead, then retroactively came up with reasons.

Basically, I just don't think LLD is scum. She's that one player who's doing what I call 'Waving the antitown flag' IE appearing to be deliberately unhelpful and obstructive, which isn't a very smart thing for scum to do. Scum tend to go out of their way a bit more to avoid making enemies. It was necessary to vote her initially to stop her being antitown and stalling the game, but to basically ignore the variety of interactions across the game as the whole and focus in on one particular bit of glaring antitownness and the fact she's now voting you.

@Majiffy: I won't even consider voting LLD as long as Chrono is alive.

[Tebow]

Who is 'You' in that sentence?

[Tebow]

Well that's patently untrue.

[Tebow]

Both because I don't have you down as particularly scummy and other people do.

I would however like you to answer the questions I asked you.

[Tebow]

The sudden switch from 'Oversoul is town and Coug scum because Coug is making a bad case on him' to 'Coug is town needs to die anyway' DOES need explaining given that we know both were scum.

[Tebow]

Reread.

I read. I don't understand why you made that switch. Please explain it. This is why you're dislikeable. You make things difficult and frustrating when there's absolutely no need.

@Majiffy: I won't even consider voting LLD as long as Chrono is alive.

I don't understand the reason why you believe Chrono is scum. If it's lurking, so is every other player in this game. If you think he's scum because SC made a last minute push on him, that's hardly enough to condemn him. I wouldn't be sad to see him go, but there are better lynches.

Like Zdenek.

No, not every other player in the game is lurking. Zdenek, for instance, noticeably isn't. Even if everyone else were lurking, that wouldn't make scum less likely to lurk. It is partly because Coug made a last-minute 'push' that looked like distancing rather than an actual attempt to get him lynched. It's mostly because he's doing zero scumhunting. Contrast with posts like these, that make it look like Zdenek may be interested in finding scum:

Tebow - Jackal folded under the mild pressure of Tebow telling him that his vote was bad. Scum does that to appease town, not scum.

The strongest point against Arugula is that he didn't comment on the mass-claim idea, while seemingly having pretty strong feeling against it. The fact that scum lost their busdriver yesterday could account for Arugula's change of heart, and it's enough to make me not opposed to this lynch.

regarding LLD:
In post 1149, Nikanor wrote:
Nah, she's town. Someone else can claim.


What changed?

Zdenek actually pushed pretty hard for the Nocmen lynch day two/three. Plus Coug went after Drmyshotgun comparatively hard at a point when it might actually have led to a wagon.

Chronopie has simply not shown anything resembling town motive all game. Seriously, at least look at his ISO. Throw in the Coug connection, and he's a better lynch than Zdenek. LLD is an outright bad lynch - I can't see for the life of me why Scum-LLD would kill Nikanor, or soft-defend the buddy actually under pressure while attacking a buddy who wasn't - so she'd be committed to bussing, but in the way likely to give the least possible towncred. Behaving like that was likely to lead to Coug getting lynched anyway, and then LLD being unable to push any more town lynches until Oversoul was dead.

Pre-Edit: No. I've made it clear Zden > LLD, but there's a death spiral of inertia here - people aren't posting and making arguments, therefore just sitting on Zdenek and LLD, therefore time flows by towards deadline, then people make the 'Only Zdenek and LLD are viable' argument. If anyone wants to try to argue that CPie is town, go ahead, but I struggle to see how that's even possible. And it seems like people are ignoring him simply because other people are ignoring him.

[Tebow]

BTW: I struggle to see how

making an argument for

Chronopie is possible. I don't struggle to see how it's possible he's town, because town do sometimes show no town motive whatsoever.

[Tebow]

BTW: I struggle to see how

making an argument for

Chronopie is possible. I don't struggle to see how it's possible he's town, because town do sometimes show no town motive whatsoever.

*glares*

Why is it that as soon as the wagon you've been calling for starts getting some votes you throw out the "here's my out when chrono flips town" post and make me doubt you all over again?

*GLARES BACK*

Yeah, why on Earth would someone clarify something if they realized something they said could be read ambiguously as saying something they definitely didn't mean?

I'm not saying I'm certain Chrono is scum. That's an important distinction. He's still the best wagon.

[Tebow]

No. Strawman. Is anyone here saying they are sure that their top suspect is scum?

[Tebow]

I mean, come on, if I hadn't phrased it clumsily in the first place, and written 'I don't see how an argument for Chronopie's townieness can exist' would you have called that an 'out?' Why the heck would it then be an 'out' for me to make clear that's what I was saying all along?

Pre-Edit: No, I'm saying a case

for Chrono being town

can't be made.

[Tebow]

"I don't see how an argument for Chronopie's townieness can exist" is very unambiguously saying you're certain he's scum.

It was an out when you said you can see how he's town. Which is also a direct contradiction to your sentence immediately before wherein we are led to believe, according to you, that it was in reference that you are... certain he's scum.


wat.

No. "I don't see how an argument that he is town can be made" is very unambiguously saying exactly that, which is not at all the same thing as 'I'm certain he's scum.'

There is no positive reason to find him town. For instance, my positive reason for thinking Rhinox is town is the way Coug went after BabyBlue. No argument for kdowns/Elmo being town can be made either (outside of 'I believe the claim'), because they've done nothing townish (in their case, they've done literally nothing). That doesn't mean they're definitely scum, it means I can't come up with a positive reason to argue for them being town. 'I'm certain he's scum' = I have no doubt whatsoever that the scum case on him cannot possibly be wrong. "I can't see how you can make an argument for him being town" means that the only possible defence is that the evidence for him being scum isn't conclusive, rather than there being evidence pointing the other way.

I don't understand your last sentence at all.

[Tebow]

If an argument for someone's being town cannot be seen to be made, it is implied that you do not believe that person is able to be town. If it is implied that you do not believe the person is able to be town, it is only semantically different but relatively identical to the claim of being certain someone is scum.

Your first statement essentially means "I'm certain he's scum". The second sentence essentially means "But he might be town". Contradictory. And you may disagree on what your "I don't see how an argument that he is town can be made" means, but let's be honest here; it means you're certain he's scum.

No. That's twisting of words. "You cannot make an argument in favor of him being town" is not at all the same thing as "You cannot make an argument

against

him being scum." The former relies on presenting evidence of his townie-ness, which I believe cannot be done. The latter relies on questioning the strength of the evidence against him, which is possible.

For instance, my next door neighbor may or may not have a drug problem. I cannot make an argument that he does, because I have no evidence pointing in that direction. That does not mean that he DEFINITELY DOES NOT HAVE A DRUG PROBLEM.

Let's put this in perspective; is there a case against Chrono?

Yes, he's my top scumread by some distance.

If yes: Can this case be seen from a town perspective?

Yes. I am town and I see it.

If no: Then you're certain he's scum.
If yes: Then you have no case. Vote LLD or Zdenek.

No. That's a complete non-sequitur. You're arguing 'There's a case against him, and it can be seen from a town perspective, therefore you have no case.'

[Tebow]

Being sure or not isn't really the point. People are wrong all the time, being wrong doesn't automatically make people scum. Your clarification isn't needed at all from a town perspective.

Being as clear as possible in what you're saying isn't need from a town perspective? WHAT?

[Tebow]

Also, Rhinox, your argument relies on the premise that if I were scum, I'd look worse as scum if I said I was sure he was scum than if I didn't: I don't see how that makes any sense - he's clearly my top suspect and I'm clearly the primary driver of his wagon either way. I haven't ever seen expressing extra confidence in the wagon you're pushing to be a liability in terms of survival for either alignment.

[Tebow]

If no: Then you're certain he's scum.
If yes: Then you have no case. Vote LLD or Zdenek.

No. That's a complete non-sequitur. You're arguing 'There's a case against him, and it can be seen from a town perspective, therefore you have no case.'

That's not a non-sequitur. The point of a case is "this is why person x is scum". If these reasons can be shown to have a town perspective, then they aren't reasons why person x is scum. They're null at best. No case.

No. You argued that if there is a case against him and town can see this case, then there is no case against him.

Also your metaphor is ass backwards and doesn't fit properly. And it relies on an appeal to ignorance.

Completely wrong and illogical. My analogy is completely valid. If there is no evidence for something, you cannot create an argument that it is true. That doesn't mean you can't argue against someone who's saying it's definitely untrue. Consider the difference between 'There is no evidence of foul play in this death' and 'We can rule out foul play in this death.'

[Tebow]

Those aren't mutually exclusive. Posting without doing anything to help town is scummy. Looking for people who seem to lack town motive /prioritize survival over scumhunting is the main way I scumhunt.

It is partly because Coug made a last-minute 'push' that looked like distancing rather than an actual attempt to get him lynched. It's mostly because he's doing zero scumhunting.

[Tebow]

I mean, seriously, just look at This post. Look at how much IIoA there is there. Look how there's no actual opinions on anything.

[Tebow]

No. The point of the game is to lynch scum. This wagon has somewhat reinvigorated discussion anyway. And Chrono now has as many votes as LLD, so there's no reason why I should be the one to give up on what I think is the optimal lynch.

Just popping out, will read Majiffy's latest later.

[Tebow]

No. You argued that if there is a case against him and town can see this case, then there is no case against him.

You're either intentionally misrepping me or you were dropped on your head as a child, because this is just wrong.

I'm saying that if the case against him can be seen as actions coming from town, then there is no case. "As seen from a town perspective" = HIS ACTIONS can be seen from a town perspective.

Yes, but 'Can be seen from a town perspective' DOES NOT mean 'Can be seen to be coming from a town player' it means 'Can be seen BY a player who is town.' 'From an X perspective' is a description of the viewer, not the viewed. If you'd said 'Can be seen to be COMING FROM a player WITH a town perspective," fine, but you didn't. You're accusing me of misrepresenting you because the actual words you used mean something completely different to what you think you said.

In any case, what you meant to say is scarcely better, because it implies that something is only a scumtell if town couldn't possibly have said it. Laughably wrong. Something is a scumtell if scum do it with higher regularity than town (It doesn't even require the majority of people doing it to be scum). Town players do things that I think make no sense and would actually constitute not playing to their win condition all the time (See: Internet Stranger refusing to claim when put at L-1 and threatened with hammer while holding an investigative role in the recent mini 1351).

When we're looking at a sweeping majority of more town players than scum players you have to start off with the assumption that x player is town and build a case for that person being scum, not saying "well this person hasn't been particularly town so lolmustbescum", that's either laziness or dumbassery. All your metaphors must necessarily start with the assumption of drug use / foul play because there is no evidence (as there is with a sweeping majority of town players as known by 2 scum flips already) to the contrary.

No. You don't start from the assumption they're town, you start from the assumption that they might be either. Townish actions and interactions push the player towards the town end of the spectrum, scummy ones push them towards the scum end. Chronopie has some things pushing with moderate strength toward the scum end, and nothing pushing toward the town end, therefore he's on the scum side of the scale. He's not the whole way over, though, hence 'Not sure he's scum.' But no-one's further towards scum, hence he needs to die.

VOTE: Chrono
I'm more concerned with getting flips and Tebow to stop tunneling than I am with PL'ing a person I don't care for.

It's not a PL, and I've not been tunneled (and it's ironic coming from you since you HAVE been tunneled on LLD, as has Zdenek. And Gooner on Arugula. And YYR and LLD on Zdenek). Having a top suspect and trying to get them lynched =/= tunneling. I've talked about the merits of wagons on both of the top two.

[Tebow]

You're so off base it would be hilarious were it not so sad. The idiocy is actually making my head hurt.

The reason it's a 'tell' is because someone holding a scum role is more likely to do it than someone holding a town role. Let's say, for the sake of argument, quickhammers.

To expand on how laughably wrong YOU are:

Say half of all scum will quickhammer given the chance.
20% of all town do the same thing.

Because there are roughly three times as many town as scum in games, in absolutely numbers more of the people who do it will be town than scum. But it would clearly be a scumtell, because it's correlated much more highly with being scum than being town. If you lynched someone based solely on that tell, you'd have a much better chance of hitting scum than lynching randomly.

If the level of reliability you are talking about were the bar, pretty much nothing would fall under the category of 'scumtells.' The only tell I've ever seen that even gets maybe 70% of the people doing it being scum is the Amished tell.

As for your dice example, one it has nothing to do with what we're talking about. We know that scum exist in the game. They exist in a finite, but not tiny, number. Any given player has a much higher than zero chance of being scum - it's more like the pulling socks out of a drawer with nine red and three blue socks. Two, the prevalence of scum in games isn't 10%, it's roughly a quarter. The baseline isn't 100% town, 100% - whatever the proportion of scum is. You start off with the mindset that any given player is

probably

town, like I said, town actions give town reads, scum actions give scum reads. And if I was ever 60% sure someone was scum, I'd happily lynch them no questions asked.

TL/DR You fail logic forever.

[Tebow]

RE: TownMajority
You're doing the statistics wrong. You need to start with the total number of quickhammers, then divide them up based on town or scum.

Soooo... enjoy your stupidity I suppose.

Stupidity and extreme arrogance? Man, you were blessed.

I'm not doing it wrong. You are. Let me lay this out for the hard of thinking:

THE PURPOSE OF SCUMTELLS IS THAT SOMEONE WHO DOES THEM IS MORE LIKELY SCUM. IF THE PROPORTION OF PEOPLE DOING THE ACT WHO ARE SCUM IS HIGHER THAN THE PROPORTION OF SCUM IN GENERAL, THEN IT'S A SCUMTELL.

Imagine 100 quickhammers. If 45 are by scum, it's a strong scumtell.
-----

RE:Dice

And we know that the 10th side of the dice exists as well. And they do exist in a finite and tiny number. We have 12 players remaining, with 1 MAYBE 2 scum remaining. If 1, then that means the odds of any random player being scum is actually even less than my dice example.

Yes, we know the 10th side exists. But it is perfectly possible to roll the die ten times and never roll a ten. There definitely are scum in this game. The default position is everyone is probably town but might be scum, not everyone is town. The implication of your argument is that town begins with no particular reason to believe

anyone

is scum, but town begins not believing but knowing there are scum there. Town at the start is indifferent to who dies so long as it isn't them, not believing that no-one should die.

Any given player does not have a higher chance than zero being scum; roles have been distributed and do not switch around randomly during the game.

I don't know what on Earth this has to do with anything. I'm talking about from a town player's perspective (OH LOOK I ACTUALLY USED THAT WORD RIGHT. MAYBE YOU MIGHT WANNA TRY THAT?) I'm clearly not arguing that the roles change during a game, that's another ludicrous strawman that bears no resemblence to my actual argument. From the perspective of a town player, every other player is equally likely to be the scum at the start. Some do town things or make claims from which you can conclude they're less likely than random chance to be a member of the scumgroup. Some do scummy things, and that makes them more likely. Doing scummy things doesn't change your role: it gives the observer better information to work with in figuring out what your role might be.

You're basically arguing that when I turn over a card, it doesn't have a probability of being an ace because in fact it's either an ace or not. From the perspective of the uninformed observer, it is absolutely rational to think in terms of the number of cards and aces in the deck.

Three; roughly a quarter at start. I'm talking about our current situation.

TL;DR You're a fucking moron.

And I'm talking in general game theoretical terms, since we're arguing what makes a scumtell IN GENERAL.

TL/DR You make SlySly look like a paragon of intelligence and good faith argument.

[Tebow]

This stupid argument is leading nowhere. Tebow, who exactly do you want dead today?

Really? REALLY? Are you honestly telling me that isn't abundantly clear?

[Tebow]

By the way, I'm going to be on Vacation for a week from Friday. I may get online at a cafe or something at some point, but don't count on it.

I may need the whole week to get all the Majiffy rage out of my system. Moron douchebag.

[Tebow]

@CTD: Arugula's vote on Giitah followed a similar pattern I think. A late vote with no justification having hardly mentioned Giitah before that. I think that's just Arugula. I have a really hard time getting a read on him here, since he was uberscummy in the recent mini 1351 as town.

I'm too tired right now to respond to the stuff that's sapping my will to live.

[Tebow]

Right. Last post before Vacation. May be able to phone post to vote while on vacation, but don't count on it (I'm not expecting to have signal most of the time).

I've only got time to address one of Majiffy and Chrono, and much as I'd like to offer yet another demonstration of how majiffy talks with the opposite end to the rest of us, it's Chrono who I think is scum.

Chrono's defense:

a) That coug was trying to avoid his lynch by instead directing attention onto me.

As I said, I just don't see this being the case. Coug's case was so flimsy, and he himself so firmly in the firing line, that I really don't think Coug thought his Chronopie attack had any chance of working. Indeed saying Chrono was his top suspect based on ridiculous reasons while being 'OK with' LLD hate to me says distance partner while hoping to end up on a 'compromise' town lynch.

Plus, Coug has attacked pretty much everyone who's under consideration for lynch, except Arugula. He went after drmyshotgun (now Zdenek) pretty hard to open day two, then there's above LLD suspicion which looks like scum trying to sheep onto a popular wagon without associating himself with it too much. Plus he was also critical of Oversoul. So unless we want to go for Arugula, pretty much everyone can play the 'But Coug attacked me!' card.

Then you're barking up the wrong tree. Because I don't mind if I'm lynched.

When accused of prioritizing survival over scumhunting, he goes with arguing that survival is unimportant to him (utterly meaningless and unprovable assertion), not that finding scum is important.

I'm often accused of IIoA

But that's the way I operate. I point out facts, not formulate wild mass guessing followed by insistent, baseless pushing. I'm not an emotionally driven player, nor a hypothesis driven player.

Which is to say if I push someone, it's for a damn good reason. Failing to push a specific case just means I have reservations.

And failing to push any specific case at all indicates you're not trying to find scum. Chrono has not offered one thing that even resembles an opinion about who scum might be. It's not like he's asking questions and trying to get better reasons for suspicion either. Not one thing Chronopie has done all game has shown any intent to figure out who the scum is.

d) I'm often accused of apathy.

Perhaps unsurprisingly (see above), apathy is actually a towntell for me.

What are your scumtells then? I'm serious BTW. People often claim 'X is a towntell' for themselves. How would you be playing differently if you were scum? Are you saying you only even pretend to be interested in helping town when you're scum? Can you prove this? This is before I even get into claiming that you're playing normally when you're not even trying to help the town's win condition grinds my gears.

And yes, Chronopie's play makes sense for scum. It's a lurkish town with poor morale. Scum has no reason to want to jolt it into life. The LLD/Zdenek feud was consuming enough of the day that it was a perfectly reasonable thing to do, should both be town, to just let the day be defined by a combination of apathy and townfight. If either is scum, obviously he's less likely to be, both because of the obvious calculus of there not being many scum left, and because letting it come down to an either/or where one is scum is poor scum play. Both Zdenek and LLD have done things that make me think "Well, that wouldn't be a particularly smart thing for scum to do" or 'That looks like someone trying to help the town.' No on both for Chrono.

Chrono>Zdenek>Arugula (not a terrible lynch because he's that one guy who's always scummy, but I have no particular reason to think he's any scummier than normal) > LLD (She's not scum).

[Tebow]

Just got back. Obvlynch is obv.

[Tebow]

Just got back. Obvlynch is obv.

Then why aren't you voting?

Because quicklynching without reading is bad. I just skimmed the last page, and wasn't sure if Rhinox had claimed his result, or if everyone had checked in. Since the lynch is obvious, town is in no way harmed by me coming back and reading the end of yesterday and reading today carefully (not to mention reminding myself of who is whom and who has said what) before I commit to a vote.

But go on, try to insinuate things about an action which has no possible scum motive.

[Tebow]

I find it hilarious that you think I'm insinuating that you're scum. I want this day over because we're not having the same stupid arguments we had yesterday over an obvious scum lynch.

Why bring it up if it's not relevant to scumhunting? It's not an unreasonable way to behave when returning from a week of no access whatsoever. There's no rush.

This game is so frustrating even when it's going well.

[Tebow]

Yeah, you're Godlike, LLD.

[Tebow]

Rhinox, Gooner, and CTD are all town from my own protections. Pretty sure Elmo just towntold. Arugula siteflaked (last visited on the 21st of August), so he couldn't send the kill. BBmolla may have megabussed, but it seems doubtful. That leaves Tebow, Majiffy, and LLD as the only real candidates. It seems pretty straightforward at this point.

Lynch from Tebow, Majiffy, and LLD. Have Rhinox track from the two remaining. Gooner watch Rhinox. I WIFOM protect. Majiffy protect me. Scum can't kill Rhinox without being exposed by Gooner. Rhinox gives result. Lynch one of the two remaining suspects depending on tracker result. Also assuming 5 scum.

LLD simply isn't scum, YYR. I'd like to know what you think this great towntell of Elmo's is as well. I'd lynch either of Elmo and Arugula over Majiffy on play, and Majiffy over LLD. I see your point about Majiffy and the kills - I would in fact have thought the smartest move for scum would have been to shoot the bodyguard directly if he were town. But then, nothing I've seen in this game suggests particularly smart scum to me.

[Tebow]

CTD - yes. Which is this alt blown, but oh well. I'd altslipped in WiHIII, but that was lost to this crash so I got a couple more games out of it. Was trying out a more chilled playstyle and a few things. Imagining myself as being Tim Tebow actually kinda helped in terms of not losing my rag with people (I did find it funny when LLD started trying to dismiss me on account of inexperience though).

Given that Elmo also went a week and a half without posting prior to picking up his prod today, I'm not sure what we can read into Arugula's absence. If Dram didn't notice seven days of no posts at the end of a day, I'm not sure why a night of being scum would make a difference.

The fact that Zdenek attempted to do the scumkill is interesting, because you'd think he's the one player in the entire

My defense in so far as there needs to be one is that there are votes on me is that I've spent the entire game arguing forcefully and regularly to lynch the people I think are scum and to push the theory positions I believe will benefit the town. (To be honest, I can't get too worked up about dying because we should have the game in hand anyway, having to deal with Majiffy is sapping my will to live, and I am moving house soon so will have a phone access-only V/LA coming up). I'm feeling pretty burned out atm. But not trying at all is against my win condition, and I HATE that, plus every time I've been in a game and someone's come up with an 'Auto-win' town plan that begins 'Well first we lynch Fonz' then the town has ended up losing. Maybe I'll feel differently when I'm not just so shattered, idk. I do think YYR's plan is probably a recipe for disaster.

[Tebow]

The fact that Zdenek attempted to do the scumkill is interesting, because you'd think he's the one player in the entire

Was there more to this sentence or did you just

It was more that I

[Tebow]

To elaborate in a non-joking manner on my earlier Zdenek thought, it seemed strange to have probably THE player most likely to be tracked doing the kill. Seemed to indicate to me the other one might be either absent or a claimed PR who had to take the claimed action. I mean, I suppose it's possible scum knew he was going to die the following day anyway (I was clearly going to be voting Zdenek that day even if he hadn't been caught by night actions, so I think that pretty much guaranteed majority with those who'd already wanted him dead) but that was my initial reaction. It also strikes me as *somewhat* unlikely scum all claimed VT, it's not what I'd have done had I been scum (hence, I'm not scum).

(Also, we've had three missed investigation results, and it's pissing me off. We could have confirmed another player or two had they been pre-submitted. Seriously, how hard is it to know you're going V/LA and pre-submit?)

[Tebow]

Just suggest that BBMolla might be scum. That should get him to come running pronto.

[Tebow]

YYR and Rhinox are confirmed beyond reasonable doubt. The only PR-claim that could really screw us over if fake is Gooner's. I think it would be a good idea to scrutinize his play today, so I'm going to work on that. I'll have something up by tomorrow.

Majiffy and Elmo. Majiffy and Elmo. Much more so Elmo, actually - Majiffy at least took a risk of being tracked/watched. It's not his fault the tracker and watcher have repeatedly failed to submit actions.

[Tebow]

I've half a mind to dispute YYR's characterization of the Chronopie wagon (He had long, detailed posts which completely lacked scumhunting intent, which is one of the best signs of scum there is) and go on a rant about how towns have a tendency to pick on people who phrase things poorly in their attempt to find scum over obvscum who show no town motive whatsoever, but I agree with his characterization of the game state as it is now, so it can drop.

LLD just isn't scum. Rhinox, CTD, YYR are basically confirmed. Gooner busted a scumbag with his night action, so doesn't get lynched before endgame if he's still around then. LLD just doesn't make that much sense as scum. I'd agree with YYR that if not for his claim, Majiffy would be the lynch today. (For the love of God, Rhinox, track Majiffy tonight). But the claim exists, so that leaves BBMolla, Arugula, and Elmo. I need to re-read BBMolla the last couple of days to see if I agree with YYR's stance, I've always felt uneasy with him. ETA is basically a non-player, I can kinda conceive of Dramonic having 'tons of protective roles and little else' as the concept for the town's power, though.

So probably Arugula, pending the re-read of Molla.

[Tebow]

If this game goes to endgame, I'll be very disappointed.

BTW, phone posting only from Sunday for an unknown period (I'm moving house).

[Tebow]

Indefinite V/LA (Phone posts only) from tomorrow.

I should be able to finish the game like this tbh, but bear in mind the length of my responses will be limited.

[Tebow]

I would hammer but heeding CTD's request.

[Tebow]

No need for a claim. I'll hammer once ctd's issue is sorted.

[Tebow]

So we're basically sitting around waiting for either deadline, a Gooner post, or a Gooner replacement, right?

[Tebow]

Vote: Arugula

Latest i could leave it.

[Tebow]

vote: arugula

BOLD TAGS, Y U NO WORK?

[Tebow]

Anything need saying before I hammer?

[Tebow]

I can see Majiffy not caring enough to send in an action.

But if power roles can't be bothered to submit night actions even when I told the tracker to follow them the previous day, I can't see why I should care enough to tie myself in WIFOM knots. I just want this game over with.

Vote: Majiffy

[Tebow]

And the evidence for you being town is?

You've been suspicious all game and IT'S NOT THAT HARD TO SUBMIT A NIGHT ACTION. Since, you know, if you're town doing so could confirm you and failure to do so could make you look for all the world like scum.

[Tebow]

I don't really care how it ends, tbh, I just don't want to play any more, but you look for all the world like scum to me. If it's essentially an auto-win as you claim, why do you care?

[Tebow]

God damnit, this fucking game is still going.

No kills in like forever. So scum is either inactive, or deliberately no-killing. No-killing for fear of PRs seems to make little sense, given that the claimed watcher is obviously inactive.

So we're likely looking at a claimed PR or an inactive. DO NOT JUST GO 'HERP DERP ALL THE PRs ARE CONFIRMED, LET'S LYNCH TEBOW AND LLD.'

[Tebow]

I'd rather lynch Elmo before Gooner. Gooner there is still the issue of why he would have outed his last buddy when already in a precarious position. Whereas Elmo could basically just be doing the bare minimum to not be accused of playing directly against his win condition.

[Tebow]

Vote: Elmo teh Azn

[Tebow]

I'm down with quicklynches. I think the only reason I've stuck this out was town victory seemed imminent and I wanted the reward for all the effort i'd put in, not to throw it away.

[Tebow]

Do we not even have enough actives to get a lynch off?

[Tebow]

Not so. Town does need a significant advantage in terms of power to make 25% scum balanced. Town had watcher/tracker, bodyguard, doctor, bomb. Scum had an incredibly powerful role in the bus driver to fuck with night actions. It's not the town's problem that specific role got lynched Day One. Nor that you didn't manage to out a single town power role before night four. As it happens I'm not a fan of the role that was both supersaint or bomb, because I think killing the killer as a result of BOTH a lynch and an NK gets rid of a significant portion of the skill element. Scum should have the option with pretty much every town player to EITHER kill them or get them lynched. But tbh, the only player that was done in by investigation was Zd, who was going to be lynched that day anyway.

I pretty much guarantee that, had the BD lived to day three, the town players would have been bitching postgame.
Dead QT?

[Tebow]

To be fair, if you weren't lynched while 'gone' you'd never get lynched, because you were never 'here.'

[Tebow]

I can haz QT?

[Tebow]

Convenient claim, avoid OGM, etc. To be fair, kdowns would probably have been lynched Day Two had he not had a PR to claim.

(And this game shows why you DO have to lynch the kdowns of this world, even if they are 'just playing normally.')