Purified Mafia (Over)

[CrashTextDummie]

/in

[CrashTextDummie]

We should massclaim.

Raise of hands, everyone in favor.

[CrashTextDummie]

Massclaim is a good idea in principle, for the following reasons:

1. It puts the scum collectively at risk and on the spotlight at a point in time when they have no bearings on the game yet.
2. It limits their strategic options by forcing them to commit early.
3. It opens them up to being counterclaimed.
4. It allows for much better synergy between town power roles.
5. It allows for a much better informed D1 lynch.

Plus, this game has added incentive to mass-claim, since every town player knows a role that isn't in the game, the fakeclaiming potential is further diminished, which in turn improves the strength of any powerrole claim.

The play has a singular con, giving scum all the powerroles. I personally don't think it outweighs the pros, since a) competent scum are usually pretty good at hitting power-roles anyway, b) power roles interfering with each other is usually just as hurtful to the town as power roles dying and c) I see power-roles as a crutch that isn't really needed in a town that is scum-hunting well.

Don't just go by the textbook opinion that "massclaim is bad", consider its merits with open eyes.

-------------

Not a fan of the Jackal wagon at all.

vote: GNR

Much better place to start.

[CrashTextDummie]

Picking up a prod. Had a busy week, will post tomorrow.

[CrashTextDummie]

Appologies for showing up so late, I should have announced V/LA.

I have town reads of varying strength on the following players:
- StrangerCoug
- Gooner
- Nikanor
- Tebow
- Nocmen
- Acronach
- Rhinox
- Borkjerkfin

Therefore, I'm fairly confident in narrowing the possible scum down to this group of people:
- Katsuki
- Kdowns
- DTMaster
- Guy_Named_Riggs
- Trevor
- MemphisWill
- drmyshotgun
- BBmolla
- Arugula

I'm willing to elaborate, but I have to read back on something before I do. I should be able to narrow it down even further once I'm done.

--------------

Of the people in my personal lynch pool, BBmolla is the closest to lynch. As I was reading through the game, his Post 428 caught my eye for its soft-claimish undertones. I was therefore somewhat surprised to see him claim VT. He's also one of my stronger scum reads.

vote: BBmolla

L-2

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Before we lynch though, I would like to bring up once again the possibility of mass-claim, which might be an even stronger play today than it would have been yesterday. With one scum down, no power roles dead or outed and only one VT claim by BBmolla the edge it would give the town is even greater and might go into game-breaking territory at this point. I gave my reasons for why it's a beneficial play for town, I expect everyone who's against it to provide reasoning to that effect.

[CrashTextDummie]

Actually,

unvote

While I consider BBmolla a fair lynch, I don't think we should go to night without getting some content out of low-to-zero spots like GNR and MemphisWill.

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Mod: Is MemphisWill getting replaced? He hasn't posted at all in over a week. Also, please update the player list with replacements and provide a vote-count. Thanks.

[CrashTextDummie]

vote: GNR

Pressure vote to pass the time. He's had 4 posts all game, with zero scum-hunting in evidence. He hasn't voiced a single suspicion so far and his last post strikes me as scummy considering.

[CrashTextDummie]

What's to stop scum from claiming a town version of whatever PR they got (e.g. if I were Jackal I'd claim town bus driver). There are some roles that generally only make sense on one side or the other, but that starts to get into 'don't outguess the mod' territory.

Scum being forced to claim is good regardless. If they try to pass their true power off as town, it severely limits their ability to use their role to their advantage. Most power roles are confirmable in some way, meaning they either have to take actions that are beneficial to the town or risk getting caught. If we had gone through with massclaim yesterday, I would have been very suspicious of a bus driver claim, as it's traditionally more of a scum role. And even if he would have been able to slide on the claim, the potential for fucking with the town with the role would have been greatly reduced due to how traceable it is.

No matter what the scum do during massclaim (be it power role fake-claims, true power-role claims or vanilla claims), the town will have the tools to plan optimal use of power-roles to sort out the claims, produce confirmed players and force the scum's hands during night. Don't underestimate the town's advantage in taking control from scum to whatever degree during the night game.

In spite of a scum lynch yesterday, I feel D1 was overall fairly low on information, and D2 hasn't been much better so far with several player slots inactive or doing the bare minimum. Mass claim would go a long way towards helping us make an informed decision today and moving forward.

unvote, vote: Arugula

[CrashTextDummie]

Here's some food for thought:

I believe that a failure to react to a massclaim suggestion is a scum tell. The first time I made the play, I got immediate reactions varying from calling me scum to declining to proposition from 10/16 players, all but one of which were town, the exception being an SK who went on to play a very unorthodox game. One scum didn't acknowledge the play at all, one scum acknowledged it in passing without giving any sort of opinion and one scum made an argument after ignoring the play for a significant amount of time, presumably when he went to look for ingredients to cook up a case on me.

The second time I made the play, I got immediate reactions from 8/11 players,

all

of which were town. The only players who ignored the suggestion completely where the collective scum team. Caveat: mykonian-scum was my neighbor, and he did react in our QT, but refused to put his thoughts on the matter into the game thread even when prompted.

The tell obviously isn't foolproof, as I'm working with a somewhat small sample size, and Jackal771 curbed the trend in this game, but I do think my findings on the matter are statistically significant. I firmly believe that scum

hate

early massclaim and is discomforted by the suggestion, and that a natural reaction, showing curiosity and weighing the merits of the play is a strong town tell.

The reason I've been kind of harping on the matter is twofold: a) I do genuinely believe it is a good play and I regret not pushing it harder in those past games, and b) I felt the way this game has played out so far has left too many player-slots who may have failed to react due to genuine inactivity. Players like BBmolla, Katsuki, Arugula have no excuse: they've been active during all relevant portions of the game and have diligently ignored the proposition in spite of more than one player asking for opinions. I see no pro-town reasons for this behavior, it's a legitimate play that warrants consideration. kdowns also sticks out because he found the time to comment on an irrelevant nugget of game theory amidst his prod-dodges, but not the massclaim suggestion. The rest of the people on my shit-list are an assortment of lurkers, flakers and drop-outs, and therefore hard to judge.

Tebow, it is a mischaracterization of my play to say I haven't scumhunted. I've given a list of suspects and I've voted accordingly. My level of participation is a different matter, and one I'm going to improve by a self-imposed "one post per day at minimum" policy from here on out.

---------------

I'm going to provide some non-massclaim related analysis after a re-read, as I've kind of been skimming the game so far. One thing I can comment on is Katsuki's supposed reaction-fishing fake-softclaim, which I think is entirely devoid of pro-town merit and could most generously be called "stirring the pot". I don't think this kind of play gets any meaningful role-related reactions, and Katsuki has given no indication so far that this was his actual purpose by following up with an analysis of said reactions. I consider the whole affair very fishy.

---------------

Mod: please consider a deadline extension in light of an overbearing need to replace people.

[CrashTextDummie]

Kdown's one non-prod dodge post of the day actually warrants closer inspection, as it makes no logical sense:

Well, I doubt that Katsuki can be a lyncher but I don't think anyone banned a Lyncher role

Please explain your thought process here.

[CrashTextDummie]

For obvious reasons, I think SC is a bad wagon and I'd suggest Arugula, Katsuki or kdowns instead.

[CrashTextDummie]

Trevor, please justify your town read on Arugula and share your thoughts on Katsuki.

And while you're at it, please give your thoughts on massclaiming and explain why you've been ignoring it so far.

[CrashTextDummie]

Tebow, your line of reasoning that "three player were undercontributing out of which CTD could be a real asset to town if he weren't, ergo he's scummy" is fallacious, because I tend to be an asset to the scum when I "wish to be" as well. And my promise to improve participation was less in response to your vote and more in response to repeated prodding by the mod, who I assume is having nightmares about the amount of people he has to replace in this game.

My play hasn't been susbstandard, I'm confident in my town reads and very confident that most if not all the scum can be found in the group of players I've narrowed it down to. It may be unorthodox, but that doesn't make it any less viable than what anyone else is doing in this game. I invite you to check out the two games I've linked, take a peek at who the scum were and skim the first 10 pages of the games.

Then

come back to me and call it a distraction.

[CrashTextDummie]

@CTD: If I were scum, why would I have not continued with the push, then claim that I had a very strong scum read on molla? Give me one motivation I'd have for this as scum (good luck, because there is none).

I generally don't deal with this line of thinking because I'm not in the business of reading minds. Any action could be potentially scum motivated, and if it's just to point out that there is no possible scum motivation to it.

It's much more fruitful to look for town motivation or lack thereof, the latter being the case with your play.

Any thoughts on massclaim? Why did you ignore it as scum in Almost Normal? Why are you ignoring it in this game?

[CrashTextDummie]

I ignored it because it was stupid. In a game where roles are banned, there are probably a lot of vanilla players and a massclaim would out PRs and allow scum to "fit in". If people were actually taking it seriously, I would have voiced my opinion, but I thought it was mainly just to start conversation.

I'm not buying.

You seem to have a strong opinion on the matter. By D2, it should have been pretty obvious that I was

not

just trying to start a conversation and both myself and bork specifically asked for opinions on the matter, so there was nothing stopping you from simply dropping a line in thread to the effect of "massclaim is stupid" if you were town. Instead you latched onto my vote on you and ceased communicating until I got back to you with an explanation.

What you are displaying here is exactly the kind of mindset I'd expect more from scum than from town, and is why i think the tell is so effective. You deliberately ignored the suggestion assuming it would just go away instead of

making

it go away as would fit your stated opinion.

What do you make of Nocmen's support for massclaim yesterday?

this is a dumb post, and I don't think kdowns is gonna answer it, so I'm answer it: obviously because Katsuki has a bandwagon on BBmolla, and kdowns is wondering whether or not Katsuki is actually a Lyncher and that's why he's acting as if he has role information for wanting to lynch BBmolla.

It's bad form to answer questions for others, regardless of how intelligent you think the question is. Particularly when your answer doesn't match the answer given by the guy who was originally asked.

not for obvious reasons. explain please and suggest reasons why we should lynch any of them over GNR or any of the other lurkers, like.. Trevor, though I can't remember if he posted content. Or lynch Fonz for the lulz, c'mon.

I have a town read on StrangerCoug for his uninhibited reaction to the massclaim suggestion.

Glitah, your analysis is awfully short on suspects, to the point where you're voting a nullread. What's up with that?

-------------------

Rhinox, your list of suspects disagrees heavily with mine. Thoughts on Arugula?

------------------

StrangerCoug, Tebow's reason to vote me is outdated and inherently fallacious, which makes your sheeping him particularly spurious. Thoughts on Arugula?

------------------

Glitah has already pointed out how weak and lazy Trevor's last post was and I'd support pressure on him if a wagon on Arugula doesn't take steam. The same goes for kdowns.

[CrashTextDummie]

You are overvaluing your "tell". Not commenting on a suggested idea for massclaim does not mean scum. Commenting on it does not mean town either. It is true there was nothing stopping me from saying "massclaim is stupid" but there wasn't enough motivation for me to do so either. It wasn't really taken seriously.

On what basis are you claiming I am overvaluing the tell? Did you check out the game I linked where it applied to all the scum and none of the town? I'd understand if your argument was that it doesn't apply to you in this case, but you're dismissing it outright for no apparent reason.

Why would town make it go away? If massclaim as detrimental to scum as you say it is, wouldn't scum be more likely to "make" it go away?

You

state that you find it detrimental to town, so it would be consistent for you to argue against it instead of sitting pat.

I didn't really notice it, but I disagree. That doesn't make him scummy, he just supported a bad idea.

I wasn't asking for agreement and I'm not arguing that Nocmen is scummy. I wanted to challenge your stance on the issue and your alleged perception that it wasn't taken seriously. You seem to be of the opinion that no alignment telling information can be gleamed at all from reactions to what I'd say is a pretty damn profound issue, in spite of evidence to the contrary, which from a town perspective I find mind-boggling. Your argument looks entirely self-serving to me.

I also don't like how you are asking specific people for their thoughts on me only. It seems like tunneling. Not only that, you are voting me because I didn't answer your silly massclaim proposition.

You might have noticed that I'm trying to get a wagon going on you. I am asking people for their thoughts on you because you are a topic that is of paramount interest to me right now.

------------------

How is his reasoning inherently fallacious?

His stated reasoning for voting me over other low-contributing players was that "

could be an asset to town if I wished to be", which is a fallacious argument as it's not alignment telling. And even at the time when he placed the vote, I had done more scumhunting than the other players he singled out combined, taking clear stances on all the players in the game.

[CrashTextDummie]

You admitted that there were some screwups with it and not all players who didn't answer were scum.

The tell applies to more people in this game than there is scum left, so naturally there are false positives. But you seemingly didn't consider that, you flat out stated that it doesn't work. That's not the open-minded thinking of a pro-town player. I have demonstrated that it has worked in the past.

Let's take a real life-ish example. We all work in the same office. Someone suggests that we break the windows on our boss' car. I obviously know that the other office workers aren't going to go through with it, so I don't bother saying something. Then, you tell the boss I didn't speak up for the idea of not destroying his car and try to get me fired.
That is what you are doing.

Your analogy is lacking. First of all, what you are describing is a criminal act, analogous to a strong scum move in mafia. It can and has been argued that D1 massclaim is the exact opposite. I got support in this game from Nocmen, a strong player. I got support in Almost Normal from Ellibereth, a strong player. I got support from Glork in our Team Mafia QT, who thought it was a good idea and I just read another Team Mafia QT where another strong player, Regfan, thought it was a good idea. D1 massclaim isn't as cut and dry as you paint it to be, it's an idea worth considering. I didn't just say "hey, let's massclaim!", as per your analogy, I gave specific pro-town reasons to do so. If they don't convince you, I expect a statement to that effect from a pro-town player.

You deliberately ignored serious requests for your opinion by both myself and bork, so your defense that you didn't think it was serious and therefore didn't feel the need to comment simply doesn't hold.

I am not saying that reactions can't be gleamed, but the fact that you are ATTEMPTING TO LYNCH ME FOR NOT SAYING SOMETHING ABOUT A DUMB MASSCLAIM IDEA is ridiculous and stretched.

I initially voted you because at the time you were the most promising wagon out of the people on my scumlist not named BBmolla (Drmyshotgun had more votes but was getting replaced). That I am now pushing for your lynch has a lot more to do with your scummy and self-serving defense.

I did notice that, but the way you are going about it is not town-like. If your case is strong enough, people will follow it.

I do not see the problem in trying to get people to take a decisive stance on a player I think is scum. At all.

---------------

Tebow:

I would expect decent scum, when called out for not scumhunting, to start doing it. He returned to the thread and immediately started posting content immediately after being called out.

At best this is a null argument (decent town have just as much incentive to step it up a notch when called out), at worst it's a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't".

And again, I was repeatedly prodded by the mod, that you happened to vote me just before I got back to the game was largely coincidental.

He wasn't on the Jackal wagon, expressing mild disapproval.

And I have since explained why.

His 'big scumhunting post' at the start of D2 consists of labelling half the game town without reasons, and then voting for the biggest wagon of who was left. [...]

Why it's not fallacious: 'I have done much more scumhunting than the others listed.' He's done more scumhunting than kdowns, who appears to be the VI. Congratulations.

As have I since demonstrated the thinking that went into that post. Every single post I have made in this game has served strong scumhunting purposes, and while your opinion on my play may have been valid at the time you voted me based on the information I had shared, it doesn't hold true anymore at all.

No arguments to try to convince anyone.

It can be a town virtue to sheep instead of trying to lead. I was perfectly content to just vote the biggest viable wagon while I was in the process of evaluating my findings.

My level of contribution has been a function of the time available to me and nothing else. Do something more productive with your vote.

----------------

And you know there are three scum how? This paragraph is so damn scummy and fence-sitting it's unbelievable.

I didn't catch that (the first part). I had already taken issue with his lack of scum-reads. Glitah is an acceptable lynch but Arugula is a better one.

[CrashTextDummie]

Arugula seriously needs to eat rope.

I think he has shown his scum colors in his defense against me and I've pointed out why. Some people disagree, fine. The fact alone that he accuses Rhinox of what he calls "a terrible vote", but tries to blame it on me should be a dead give away.

What is certainly not up for debate is the fact that he

completely seized sum hunting ever since attention has shifted to him

. It began with his outright refusal to contribute unless he got an explanation for my vote on him and it has continued until now. He is completely preoccupied with defending himself and nothing else, lacking any semblance of pro-activeness. And then he goes ahead and makes a post like this:

I agree. We aren't getting anything done today.

Well, no shit. You aren't even voting.

Let's string him up already.

[CrashTextDummie]

Katsuki:

Please explain your vote on Nocmen and answer these questions:

Any thoughts on massclaim? Why did you ignore it as scum in Almost Normal? Why are you ignoring it in this game?

[CrashTextDummie]

That makes no sense. Unless you mean ceased. But learn proper english before you try attacking me next time.

Ad-hom. Nice. English isn't my first language, I appreciate the lesson though.

Oh, and
kdowns
GNR
DTMaster
Acronach
Trevor
Bork
are? No, they aren't. And I still want to lynch Acronach because of my earlier case on him, but I would be fine with a Rhinox lynch as well, simply because he hasn't improved the BabyBlue slot and he ignored my calling out of his vote on him. I haven't stopped scumhunting, I still want Acronach to be lynched.

You are the third most prolific player in the game, you've been active and spending a great amount of time defending yourself. And your excuse for not doing any scumhunting is that people on V/LA, waiting for replacement and prod-dodging aren't doing it either.

Not voting does not mean not getting anything done.

Yes, yes it does. Particularly when combined with a complete lack of scumhunting.

Your post bemoaning our inability to get anything done is the height of hypocrisy.

[CrashTextDummie]

I haven't stopped scumhunting, I still want Acronach to be lynched.

Your last mention of Acronach before that post was on June 25th, one and a half weeks ago, during which you've made almost 20 more or less substantive posts not doing anything to get him or anyone else lynched. You're busted.

[CrashTextDummie]

vote does not need explaining

Yeah, it does.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hey look, Arugula's story is evolving!

From:

I haven't stopped scumhunting, I still want Acronach to be lynched.

To:

It kicked me in the butt though, because now Katsuki was reaction testing and I hadn't scumhunted

Turns out he

did

stop scumhunting, but it was Katsuki's fault.

Arugula, what's your current stance on Katsuki? How do you read his alleged reaction test considering the crippling effect it seems to have had on town activity? Do you generally consider lying a scum-tell?

-----------------

A lurker-lynch at this point is a fail move in my opinion. If a player like kdowns plays like this regardless of his alignment (which I'll take at face value as per Tebow's report), the only thing you can go on is the probability that he drew a scum role, which currently stands at 22.2%, assuming one scumteam comprising 25% of the town at the beginning of the game. Those are not good odds to lynch. Particularly when you there are perfectly strong cases against Arugula and Giitah. Arguments to the effect of "even if he's town, he's not helping" don't hold much sway either when the town is in as good a shape as this one is with one scum and only a VT dead.

-----------------

Kdowns claim is premature and can't be proven, but I'm going to leave it at that.

-----------------

I just took a glance at BBMolla's ISO, and he's had a significant drop in activity ever since attention shifted away from him. His D2 in general has been on the extremely passive side.

[CrashTextDummie]

Arugula, Giitah, BBmolla, Katsuki. At least half of those people are scum. Take your pick.

[CrashTextDummie]

I don't think scum would pull something like Katsuki did.

Why not?

Katsuki's continued refusal to justify his Nocmen vote is noted.

[CrashTextDummie]

You're essentially saying that arugula and giitah are scum then in this post.

Does this mean you don't think BBmolla is scum anymore? What changed?

[CrashTextDummie]

Hurr I would've pushed him to the lynch if I thought he was still scum. That was the initial purpose of the pressure after all.

Yes, and I want to know what changed your mind.

It's obvious what changed it's in my ISO I'm pretty sure.

Your post 630:

PM from dram says you're scum with your vanilla claim.

Your post 650:

God I can't take this anymore there's way too many that are more scummy than molla...

Your post 653:

You were legitimately scummy.

But hey, there's tons of scum to be found amongst those who reacted to the push.

No mention of Molla since then, no indication whatsoever on what changed your mind. Last stance on his aligment was "others are more scummy than [him]".

trololol

read iso

I just checked your ISO and I see Nocmen's 528 as the only source of your suspicion. Is that it?

Thoughts on Giitah please.

[CrashTextDummie]

Oh God. He's starting up another wagon. The "Thoughts on Giitah" gives it away.

And here I thought the line was a symptom of tunneling. You can't keep your thoughts on anything straight.

But I like this wagon, so proceed.

Figures.

[CrashTextDummie]

That's not why he's scummy though.

Do elaborate. All you've accused me of is "playing dumb" because I don't put up with your opaque bullshit.

[CrashTextDummie]

Yes it is. Did I say you weren't tunneling?

Your definition of tunneling does not match mine or anyone else's.

Katsuki has made no mention of Giitah or his predecessor in 33 pages of play, and considering he's become on of the focuses of today, that's an issue. Seeing as you seem to think that Giitah is scum,

you

should have a problem with that. When he goes out of his way to quote my list of 4 suspects to comment on one of them but ignores another, I certainly have a problem with that.

It's only prudent to ask people to take clear stances on persons of interest, particularly when they seem to be willfully ignorant about them. Your commentary on the matter serves no other purpose than to belittle my efforts of getting reads on people, and considering you don't seem to have a scum-read on me, I seriously question why you would want to do that.

Earlier you said it was not town-like to ask such questions. "Not town-like" implies "scum-like", which in itself is a problematic statement to make against a player you don't actually think is scum, but to then turn around and actually cheer the practice on when it's perceived target is a player you agree with is a whole 'nother shade of wrong.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm voting CrashTextDummie, so the answer is obviously yes. CrashTextDummie seems overly preoccupied with massclaiming,[...]

Have you read the last 10ish pages of the game? To say that I am overly preoccupied with massclaiming is a gross misrepresentation of my play. And even if it were true, that's pretty thin reasoning to want someone lynched.

All my vote was doing was gathering dust.

Your current vote has been gathering dust for 6 pages as well. You haven't made any effort to actually get me lynched and all you have for company on me is an unsubstantiated vote from Katsuki.

Step it up, please.

---------------

I'll honor Tebow's request for a concise case against Arugula later tonight. Giitah case should be summarized by Nocmen or Arugula (preferably the latter).

[CrashTextDummie]

Substantiate your accusation that I am preoccupied with massclaiming then. I've made 3 posts exclusively dealing with the suggestion of massclaim vs. 25+ posts of aggressive scumhunting.

[CrashTextDummie]

You suggested massclaiming in your first two content posts of the game, which seems much too early to have a town motivation; [...]

I've explained my reasoning for suggesting massclaim this early. The play is strongest when scum has a minimal amount of information to work with.

the second is also a failure to take into account that they do not know what the town banned, thus leaving a VT claim as the safest actual role claim.

I'm pretty sure I've addressed this as well. Locking scum into a VT claim is a good thing, it places them into a narrowed lynch pool and eliminates any potential for effective scum-gambiting further down the road.

[...]but it should not have taken you that long to do anything decent.

Again, I have made every single post in this game with a clear scum hunting purpose in mind, which has helped me in arriving at strong scum reads.

-------------------

Then, he uses poor reasoning to vote me based on his massclaim proposition.

Your continued insistance that my reasoning for voting you was poor still strikes me as disingenuous, as the only thing you've come up with in response to the fact that the tell has proven to be very accurate in the past is that it's not 100%. That does not devalue the tell.

I'll have more to say on this when I summarize the case on you.

Katsuki then said he proposes massclaim regardless of alignment,[...]

Hint: Katsuki was talking out of his ass. I have never proposed massclaim as scum.

Read on Katsuki: I think Katsuki is town because scum don't have the balls to do the reaction test he did and he isn't going with the flow by voting Nocmen or me, so my townread on him is pretty solid.

See BBmolla's response concerning the first part.

As for the second part, I don't see it as pro-town to place what is at best an unsubstantiated annoyance-vote in a town that is hopelessly scattered and nearing deadline. He's also not "going with the flow" by voting Giitah or Stranger or Shotty/replacement or Molla. That's one hell of a substantive list of wagons more viable than mine that he could have pitched in on.

[CrashTextDummie]

Not to mention the fact that he actually did vote Nocmen before going on a tangent with his vote on me.

[CrashTextDummie]

BBmolla, top three scum reads, please.

[CrashTextDummie]

Good scum players would realize that they might as well be locked into a VT claim in the first place.

Good scum can use a well timed fake-claim to devastating effect. I should know, I've recently won a scummie for one.

Forcing them to claim early takes options away from them, without taking options away from town. The fact that this set-up might give scum added incentive to claim vanilla doesn't change the fact that this is a good thing.

[CrashTextDummie]

EBWOP: Not to mention that claiming vanilla doesn't gain scum anything, it doesn't give them town cred or any other edge. It only serves to limit them.

[CrashTextDummie]

unvote, vote: Giitah

[CrashTextDummie]

Nice. You accuse me of tunneling on you and then you attack me when I move over to a building wagon on a player I have repeatedly and consistently expressed suspicion on. On the last page, you called me a null-scum read, explain why you see this as a bussing attempt.

I am not voting you anymore, therefore I see no need to try to convince anyone to vote you. My case on you is available to anyone who reads my ISO.

I call 4 people out as scum and in the span of 3 pages, 3 of them make bullshit attacks against me. Funny that.

[CrashTextDummie]

No, it's more like "Well, the Arugula lynch isn't happening today. I can do that tomorrow. Now it's bus time."

Again, what makes you think I am bussing when you barely registered me as a scum read ("null-scum") just a page ago.

[CrashTextDummie]

Deadline is in two days.

[CrashTextDummie]

EBWP: Actually three days, considering time zones.

[CrashTextDummie]

Giitah is at L-1 by my count.

[CrashTextDummie]

@CTD, I notice that you have repeatedly said stuff like 'there is a good case against Giitah' and 'There are at least two scum in four people including Giitah' but you have never said why. Should I take it that you agree with something someone else has said? What do YOU think is the single scummiest thing about him?

His big analysis post which was stacked with null and weak town reads, and lacking in scum-reads. I find this problematic in itself, but half his case against Acronach was that he had done a similar post in early D1, which strikes me as hypocritical. And I don't think his subsequent voting behavior matches up with his expressed reads.

It also strikes me that he expressed a willingness to lynch SC, the one person in the game he didn't analyze. As did his desire to lynch a lurker, and what looks to me like double standards in judging different lurkers (he calls several people useless and null for lack of content, but deems some of them "not today's lynch" and others worthy of a lynch for no discernible reason).

[CrashTextDummie]

BBMolla, why are you playing so passively this close to deadline? You've neither spoken up in support nor in opposition to the Giitah wagon, in fact you've never mentioned him at all. Your ISO comes up completely blank on him.

[CrashTextDummie]

mod: when exactly does the deadline hit?

[CrashTextDummie]

also, please prod Giitah (and everyone else who needs it).

[CrashTextDummie]

I still strongly feel that Arugula is scum. He has yet to answer to this and he was noticeably absent the last 3 days before deadline hit.

vote: Arugula

Having said that, I feel the need to reread certain portions of the game in light of new information (the BBmolla wagon, Arugula/Giitah interaction), and there's a couple of people I want to look into (Zdenek in particular).

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As for massclaim: I'm not opposed to it in general, but it's a weaker play than it was yesterday and weaker still than it would have been on D1. Gamestate doesn't dictate it. I agree with Rhinox that ban massclaim cannot happen before role massclaim.

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Advance notice: I will leave for a two week vacation on Sunday, during which I will be V/LA. I have a temporary replacement lined up to keep the mod from having a heart attack.

[CrashTextDummie]

I was preoccupied with vacation preparations and didn't get as much reading done as I would have liked. I'll offer up some parting thoughts in a series of posts, based on a partial reread, memory and stream of thought.

First thing's first:

Arugula, Giitah, BBmolla, Katsuki. At least half of those people are scum. Take your pick.

With Giitah and Katsuki revealed as town, I don't feel very confident in this prediction anymore, mostly because I'm having trouble seeing BBmolla and Arugula as scum. BBmolla very straightforwardly called Arugula town, which would not be out of the realm of possibility if they were scumbuddies, but awfully brazen.

I still believe in the strength of the massclaim tell, but at this point, I don't think it would be wise to base all my reads around it anymore.

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Secondly, everything Arugula says and does screams scum to me, which at this point probably means that I'm suffering from confirmation bias to some extent. Not a reason to change my opinion on him, but a reason not to discuss him any further. My ISO is filled to the brim with reasons why I find him scummy, make use of it.

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Coming up: The Katsuki gambit. If anyone wants me to comment on anything or anyone specific, say so within the next couple of hours.

[CrashTextDummie]

Several people would be a lot easier to read with the information of BBmolla's alignment. For example, if he is town, Acronach's reaction to Katsuki's would stand out to me as scummy:

Kat says she saw BB's role PM,

and people are taking the post seriously

, so I will trust that it isn't a false claim, especially considering BB's (fail) reaction VOTE: BBmolla

The underlined part reads to me like a preemptive shift of blame and it's is the kind of "safe" argument I'd expect to see from scum trying to take advantage from town-on-town gambitting. It wouldn't make much sense if both were scum together though.

If BBmolla flips scum, I'd take a hard look at people who took Katsuki's play at face value (DTMaster, etc.).

Considering his play and his claim, I think it's inevitable that BBmolla has to be lynched at some point. If he's town, I don't see the the scum ever nightkilling him and I certainly wouldn't want him around in endgame. It's probably a good idea to get this over with sooner rather than later.

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Thoughts on Nocmen coming up next.

[CrashTextDummie]

Nocmen has been the target of suspicion on and off, and is currently the second strongest wagon, so I took a peek at his ISO. The most obvious issue I have are his stances on massclaiming:

He gave his opinion on massclaim on three seperate occasions, numbered for your convenience:

1. On D1:

Honestly, I see the advantage in the mass claim for this game. The only way a fake claim can occur is if two scum buddies need to hide a role, so one lies about the claim the other lies about blocking it (or not blocking it).

2. On D2:

It's a timing thing. While i was for the MC yesterday, Day 2 is an even worse time to MC. Either day 1, or late game.

3. On D3:

Arugula, why MC tomorrow and not now? Need another day to plan it out with your scum buddies?

Several problems:
1. I didn't notice it at the time, but in agreeing with the massclaim proposition, he pretty much gave the scum directions on how to successfully navigate it.

2. He radically changed his stance from D1 to D2, when nothing changed about the premiss of the game and nothing happened to weaken the points in favor of massclaim. The only two things that really changed were that the scum lost their busdriver and had a chance to talk things through overnight. Scum in his position had every reason to change their opinion, while I don't see any compelling reason to do so as town. Also, his choice of words sounds off to me: "even worse" than what? The suggestion he agreed with a day before?

3. Today, he attacks Arugula for being reluctant to massclaim before tomorrow, when this perfectly matches his own stance of not wanting to do it before "late game". It's a weak argument to begin with, since massclaim has been a point of discussion every day so far, and there's every reason to believe that scum talked it over at this point.

On the whole, I found his scumhunting effort to be on the shallow side, he has jumped on a lot of miniscule things that aren't all that telling. And his behavior around the Jackal lynch (calling him "scummy as hell", while attacking people for "bad votes" on him) was bothersome.

All that considered, I find him to be a fair wagon in spite of his landing on my town list previously, and I particularly think he should be questions about his evolving stance on massclaim.

[CrashTextDummie]

A note on Gooner:

While I personally find VCA a largely useless scumhunting tool, I've seen it used mostly by town, and in this particular instance it doesn't strike me as the shallow "putting colors on votes to appear helpful" kind. He makes several assumptions I disagree with, but making assumptions is the very basis of VCA. I have a fairly strong town read on him, and I find Rhinox's push against him suspect.

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I looked through StrangerCoug's ISO in the interest of due diligence, since he's another person of interest. He hadn't caught my eye so far and I've had very bad luck reading him in the past, so he was the active player I probably ignored the most.

I don't really see the case that's been brought up against him. The only red flag he raised with me was in his Post 304:

Jackal isn't a standout to me and I'm having a hard time understanding what's so scummy about him in ISO. I'm all ears, though (and CTD is going to look bad if Jackal flips scum).

Establishing links between town players and your scumbuddy before they flip is a standard scum ploy. He didn't follow up this train of thought on D2 in spite of voting me for an extended period of time, which calls into question whether he actually believed what he said.

Not a big point in the grand scheme of things, but it's there.

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A small post on Zdenek coming up and then I'm out of time.

[CrashTextDummie]

Not much I can take away from drmyshotgun's portion of the game. He also appeared to link a player to Jackal-scum on D1, though he later denied that was the case. He was on Jackal pretty much for the duration of D1, which faintly smells of a powerbus.

As for Zdenek, I felt his list of suspects upon replacing in was fairly solid, and he struck a cord with me when he scolded Tebow for answering questions addressed to others. It's a gripe I often have and indicates that he's interested in getting reads on people.

The only problem I have with his play was his shift onto Giitah, specifically this post:

The possible "three mafiosi" slip that Giilah made makes me happy with his lynch. It's not a number of scum that I would have guessed, since 20% is on the low end of number of scum in a game of 20, but it's not impossible, and we could be dealing with an odd setup because of excluded roles. Aside from that the fact that today he's been voting null reads rather than scum reads doesn't read as genuine to me.

The "3 scum" tell was always the weakest available reason to suspect Giitah, and even more so in the case of Zdenek since it apparently disagreed with his own presumptions about the setup. It's somewhat odd to me that he'd go so far as to consider an "odd setup" when from his point of view, occam's razor should have indicated to him that the tell really wasn't a tell.

I'm not opposed to his lynch, but there are a lot more likely candidates around. BBMolla should stop being useless.

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And with that, I bid you all adieu and hand over the reins to petroleumjelly. See you in two weeks.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hi, I'm mostly back. Will get a post in tomorrow at the latest.

Thanks mucho, PJ, for keeping my seat warm!

[CrashTextDummie]

Remember when I told you Dram games had stupidly crazy roles and shit and claiming is silly. YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.

See: Supersaint-Bomb

Scummy post.

I had an issue with LLD's first insistence that massclaiming in Dramonic games was dumb, considering the roles that did claim were very conductive to coordination. And I have an even bigger issue with it now, since massclaim directly lead to two scum being dead. Her reaction to all this reeks of frustration to me.

I only took a cursory glance at StrangerCoug's ISO, specifically his behavior around the Katsuki shenanigans (he ignored it completely), and it makes it somewhat less likely in my mind that BBmolla is scum, which in turn makes it less likely that Arugula is scum.

Investigation results, please.

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I'll be on V/LA until Wednesday. Thanks for your patience.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm back and skimmed what I've missed. A reread is in order.

Gooner needs to claim his result asap.

Vote: LLD

[CrashTextDummie]

I skimmed a bunch of ISO's. Arugula's SC vote looks very much like a bus to me. There is

not a single

alignment related mention of StrangerCoug anywhere to be found in his ISO prior to that vote. He didn't even provide any reasoning, indicating that it was a pure bandwagon vote. There is no evidence of a thought process that lead him to suspect SC.

Tebow has been very consistently anti-SC throughout the game. If this was a bus, it was very solid. I'm not convinced he's town, but he's a low prority.

Zdenek's ISO looks pretty bad on the surface. He defended both TDM/Oversoul and SC based on what felt like flimsy reasoning to me, though it would be somewhat ballsy on his part to stick his neck out for his scumbuddies to this degree. Quality of scumhunting has been rather uninspiring. His predecessor's sudden switch to SC at the beginning of D2 is somewhat of an oddity in hindsight, and something that bothered PJ. Not a bad lynch.

Not much to go on with Chronopie. Predecessor Trevor made a move against SC in a near deadline situation with little reasoning provided (he indicated his willingness to go there a couple days prior, but never mentioned SC before that) and left his vote there until he was replaced. Could have very well been a bus. I agree that little and less has come from Chronopie in terms of scum hunting, and his defense is weak and basically comes down to self-meta. Not a bad lynch either.

I find myself agreeing with Tebow that it seems counter intuitive on LLD's part to be willing to bus one partner but not the one who's actually likely to be lynched. I'm willing to let her go for now.

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Unvote, vote: Arugula

He's the scummiest player present to me. Zdenek and Chronopie are both acceptable deadline lynches to me, and I might support one over the other before that for counter-wagon purposes.

[CrashTextDummie]

After a solid weak of absence, you might want to do something more productive than talk about lynching one of the two most confirmed players in the game.

My vote on you was based in part on a cursory skim an in part on a desire to support the second strongest wagon at the time. If you made the argument before Tebow did (edit: and I see now that you did), I must have missed it.

Please give your read on Arugula and Chronopie.

[CrashTextDummie]

unvote, vote: Chronopie

[CrashTextDummie]

Vote: Zdenek

[CrashTextDummie]

Based on the last few days of play, Tebow looks like the most likely scum out of our lynch pool. LLD is pretty much on the bottom of my priority list, she has a spotless voting record, which from a scum PoV looks like suicide to me considering the situation we're in. BBMolla's persistent Zdenek hate could be a lazy powerbus, but other things (for example, SC's reaction to the Katsuki business) make him somewhat unlikely scum in my view. Arugula also has a decent voting record, but the lack of kill last night could very well be attributed to his inactivity.

Majiffy is off-limits for a lynch in my book. Unless he has some kind of unknown super-power, I don't see how he could avoid getting into an endgame with two confirmed players (YYR and someone else). For as long as he is alive, YYR can't be killed. As inelegant as it would be, I'd go through the entire pool of unconfirmed players before considering him. Besides, his ability can be confirmed by either of our investigative roles and Gooner might shed some light on this when he checks in.

EDIT: Having just looked over his voting/posting-record, I could go for lynching Elmo over one of the claimed VTs. I see zero pro-town indications in his play, which can't be said about any of our other lynch options. His claimed role is also somewhat questionable considering the rest of the (proven) set-up. Unless someone sees a pivotal role for him to play in our plans going forward, he should be seriously considered.

[CrashTextDummie]

Tebow, are you an alt of The Fonz?

[CrashTextDummie]

Tebow = Fonz makes me muss less inclined to lynch him. The scum have made several questionable night-kills that I wouldn't expect to come from a team that includes Fonz and there are instances in his play that feel distinctly town-Fonz to me in retrospect (his early-game attack against me being the first that comes to mind).

To elaborate in a non-joking manner on my earlier Zdenek thought, it seemed strange to have probably THE player most likely to be tracked doing the kill. Seemed to indicate to me the other one might be either absent or a claimed PR who had to take the claimed action. I mean, I suppose it's possible scum knew he was going to die the following day anyway (I was clearly going to be voting Zdenek that day even if he hadn't been caught by night actions, so I think that pretty much guaranteed majority with those who'd already wanted him dead) but that was my initial reaction. It also strikes me as *somewhat* unlikely scum all claimed VT, it's not what I'd have done had I been scum (hence, I'm not scum).

YYR and Rhinox are confirmed beyond reasonable doubt. The only PR-claim that could really screw us over if fake is Gooner's. I think it would be a good idea to scrutinize his play today, so I'm going to work on that. I'll have something up by tomorrow.

[CrashTextDummie]

We should not lynch without some form of indication from the mod that Gooner's spot is active.

[CrashTextDummie]

Dram, please replace Gooner first. Arugula is getting lynched anyway.

[CrashTextDummie]

Quicklynch ftw? I'd like to hear who YYR targetted first at least.

[CrashTextDummie]

I think it's appalling that the game has been allowed to continue over several day/night cycles with Gooner's spot, either a pivotal town PR or the final scum, unfilled. This stopped being a game of mafia a while ago.

[CrashTextDummie]

Gooner doesn't have to be a scum tracker in order to be scum, since all the pertinent information he revealed, specifically Zdenek and YYR both targetting Rhinox that night, was evident to the scum in any case.

One point in favor of Gooner being truthful is the fact that Majiffy initially flipped watcher before the mod corrected himself. Not the most ethical tell in the book, and probably not that reliable considering Dramonic's apparent care-level, but it's there.

I personally don't really care in what order we lynch. The only player besides Gooner and ETA who doesn't appear to be playing anymore is LLD, and we can afford to lynch the lot of them.

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I would much prefer though if the three inactive players were modkilled, since apparently Dramonic isn't interested in getting them replaced anymore (his last post in the replacement thread dates back almost 3 weeks). If that ends the game, all the better.

[CrashTextDummie]

Vote: EtA

[CrashTextDummie]

Thankfully.

[CrashTextDummie]

Lololololol Getting lynched while gone. Lovely

Comment made me legit laugh. You were never really here.

Supersaint/Bomb combo is a bit assholeish, but other than that I don't see a problem with the set up. PJ was against massclaim because the attempted hit on our spot made it clear the scum were completely clueless about who the power roles were. The fact that they repeatedly targeted people who were doc protected also indicates that they just didn't play a very good night game. And none of the scum ever managed to establish themselves as very pro-town during the day.

[CrashTextDummie]

Props to YYR by the way, that was some excellent doccing all around.

[CrashTextDummie]

To be fair, I think I'm a good (ego-inflated) setup designer, but a terrible mod <.<;

You could redeem yourself by posting night actions and QT links. :p