The Wire Season 1 Mafia: Baltimore Police and Omar Victory!

[zMuffinMan]

No, I was just complimenting your awareness, you seem to keep track of these things very well, where all this talk of you being scum came from I do not know.

ty. I don't know either, tbh

[zMuffinMan]

lol

slandaar

fwiw if i were scum, antihero wouldn't exactly be a high priority kill in this player list and antihero's ability to read me pales in comparison to people who actually know my play well enough to have a well-above-average proven ability to read me in past games (like vezok or mastin)

but sure whatever. you're trying to use vca and nka which is stuff that ignores play altogether, so there's nothing i can say about it except "nuh uh" because i know it's wrong

[zMuffinMan]

One I feel had to be made either because he was right on a lot of things or based on Meta with little knowledge of the game because on play here he was a nice easy mislynch.

I think likely it was a combination of the two.

... right

so you think i made a kill on anti having not read the game but still knowing his reads? or are you suggesting the kill had nothing to do with me, and still trying to link it to me?

As we know, on N2, it was very likely that Mastin was indeed shot by the mafia via Pant's vig kill so this really is not helping you.

ya i forgot about that, and i guess that makes what i said slightly less valid, although i maintain anti would not have been a high priority kill in this playerlist by any means. if anything, and anyone who knows even the first thing about how i play as scum will know this to be true, if i were scum and knew pants was a town vig, i'd have both redirected him and killed him

Muffin's posting today has no real direction, he is doing pretty much nothing except defending himself and making witty comments.

*shrug*

(a) not getting lynched here is number one priority when the alternative (assuming your claim is actually true) is getting lynched and (assuming two scum left) most likely going to 5p lylo. and (b) i've been playing marathon games for most of the weekend and not really doing shit in games. sue me.

i get it. you have this massive hardon for me. but im not brandon, and if you *actually* wanted to help town you'd do more than go on and on about how i must be scum because derpity derp derp, anything i say is automatically scummy! $100 says if i had put in effort to figure out the game instead of playing marathon games, you'd be calling me scum for trying hard or something

/more witty comments

[zMuffinMan]

@AD

also want the wording on his miller thingy

[zMuffinMan]

Otherwise ill take a guess that maybe scum had their own cop to identify the traitor.

also not sure why you're so adamant about there being a cop in the game when you've been around long enough to know that sometimes millers are red herrings and if you're town, it doesn't necessarily imply there's a cop in the game

it looks like you're trying really hard to stress this whole miller thing

[zMuffinMan]

also i don't really think MC is scum here. at least this isn't how desp usually plays as scum

but that leaves me with a scum pool of like AD and... i dunno, xisiq maybe?

i'll prob spend today going over isos and making sure of reads i guess

[zMuffinMan]

do i not have a vote?

fixed

[zMuffinMan]

I'm not and he's probably not.

I don't really think MC is scum either.

That leaves a pool of you and BBm.

awesome

i'm not scum, though, and you apparently don't even think bb is scum, either

You have an effective clear on me. Further more we said that scum has a likely rolecop so scum ninja is out. (Well actually I suspect joat here with a shot of ninja rolecop and strongman). But also if that aint enough we know adrien was blocked n5 instead of you mastin the only other claimed non vt. So no ninja kill then.

What im getting at is being effectively cleared

that entirely depends on what the scum power is here

and since i'm highly doubting there's a full roleblocker + redirector in the game with town power as limited as it is, there's likely a limitation on the roleblocker and whatever the restriction is (whether x-shot or x-night or part of a JOAT role or something else), i'm doubting they used it N4 if mastin wasn't blocked

also think it's likely scum not interfering with or killing mastin means scum weren't really afraid of him

(also kinda funny that you're trying to clear yourself here in the same way i tried to clear myself in gif's game)

[zMuffinMan]

yeah i keep forgetting about the redirect

also thinking about the setup

the only real investigative power for town is the watcher/tracker combo, so if scum don't have a ninja, i'd be surprised

[zMuffinMan]

anyway

isos and stuff prob after lunch today when i have time

[zMuffinMan]

.....

If AD had retracted his miller claim, he'd basically be autolynched

Not like he has a choice but to keep it up if he's scum

[zMuffinMan]

I think he legitimately thought there was a cop in the game (or at least that it was a likelihood)

But anyone who thinks about the flavour of the game for like two seconds would realise a town cop in this setup makes absolutely no sense whatsoever

I think if he were actually a miller his first thought would be "lol red herring" since he seems to be at least a bit familiar with the flavour (familiar enough to know how little sense it makes)

So yes, I think poorly thought-out gambit (with maybe a little poorly thought-out setup spec) is the most likely scenario here

[zMuffinMan]

it runs the other way with a fair amount for why he could be town

i'll eventually get around to doing ISOs myself but remind me to ask you about this

[zMuffinMan]

. . . . .

i'm not saying roles have to 100% fit flavour, i'm saying a cop in a game where (literally) cops are scum makes absolutely no sense and if i received a miller role PM in this game the first thing i would think is lol-i-doubt-there's-even-a-cop

what i wouldn't do is assume cop in spite of all evidence to the contrary even later in the game (to the point of going, "oh, uh, shit, maybe there's a scum cop?")

also i'm going back over your ISO atm looking at your crumbs and the first place i can find you crumbing it was very late in D2 after everyone had posted (not D1, because hey, not everyone had posted then)

[zMuffinMan]

who am i scum with, AD?

[zMuffinMan]

(don't say "bb or MC" i want to know who you think is scum)

[zMuffinMan]

there's so little interaction with anyone still alive in AD's ISO

if AD is scum then MC is prob town (and vice versa)

that's about as much as i garnered from reading it

(also the only thing i could see in there about skot is the hammer)

[zMuffinMan]

I'm against lynching Dan. There is zero scum motivation for persisting in a Miller claim now that there is obviously no cop. He'd be far better served claiming VT as scum.

also thinking this could be scum reluctant to bus here

[zMuffinMan]

awesome!

[zMuffinMan]

maybe?

[zMuffinMan]

xisiq isnt cleared, though. he actually makes the most sense as scum with you from what ive read

[zMuffinMan]

But I'm voting to get a vote down that expresses my current intent off of my present thoughts.

ill prob go over mc iso later today

do you actually think ad is more likely town than despfish?

[zMuffinMan]

i don't really think this is desp's scum game, mastin

also pretty sure AD is scum

Vote: ActionDan

[zMuffinMan]

I am lazy

[zMuffinMan]

Spoiler: @mastin

btw mastin, since you're walling and all, i'm just going to ramble on a bit and hopefully relate it to my thoughts on this game in some way

for the past... month or so, i guess, but mostly for the past week, i've just had a complete lack of motivation for doing anything even slightly mafia-related. i come onto the site thinking, "OK, today is the day i do stuff in games i'm in!" and then open the game threads and just feel the energy draining out of me. i don't know what exactly it is, because it's not like the playerlists are making it unfun and i just, in general, don't sign up to games i don't think will be fun in some way, but i'm feeling really, really burnt out lately. i just don't really give a shit about posting in mafia games. i think part of it, arrogant as it may sound, is that i'm not finding it as challenging as i used to. i don't struggle to avoid being lynched, if i want my scum reads lynched i will get them lynched, and in general i'm more accurate than not and i'm about as decent as any other player when it comes to finding scum, so i can't really recall any games where my reads have been so far off base that i felt i was playing badly.

i mean, in recent memory (since returning from hiatus last year) i've been lynched twice, i think? once as town in a mylo situation where nacho and i were bumping heads due to faulty speculation and not really considering all the evidence properly, and once as scum where i was intentionally playing like a lurksack in an attempt to emulate certain aspects of my town play to fuck with meta players, which eventually backfired when i misstepped. apart from that, town or scum, i've had no real difficulty avoiding being lynched. the closest i ever came to being lynched was that paranoia game that you killed me N1, but even then i successfully derailed the wagon on myself onto a scum player, and my reads were decent (including calling greyice for third party, though he wasn't _exactly_ a lyncher, he was just third party temporarily helping scum). i also think the issue is further compacted when i play with certain players; e.g. when i play with you and i'm town, i find it hard to keep up motivation levels because i know you'll eventually town read me regardless of your alignment which brings out a lot of bad habits in my play. i am the type of person who will procrastinate with stuff if i think i can get away with it, and i am the type of person to get lazy if i have no immediate goal to work towards. and when the goal of being town enough that i'm not going to be lynched has been achieved, i tend to lose focus in games and not give as much of a shit, i think.

another part of it is that the way i've been approaching games lately has been deviating more and more from how i used to play the game, or at least that's what i think. not so much in playstyle, i guess (though i think my playstyle has had some minor and major changes in the past... year or so) but more with how i find scum. i dunno what it is, but i feel i used to be a lot more accurate in getting reads based on reading into motivations and thinking about stuff like that and i don't do that as much anymore. or at least i've noticed times where i look back at things that happened in a game and try to think about where i went wrong in certain reads and why i didn't see motivations for certain actions that, in hindsight, should have been really obvious. i've been reading over games a bit today and yesterday. some of my past games, some games i'm not in, some games that are ongoing. i was reading a newbie game where thor gave some endgame commentary with advice on how someone could have changed their play in the game to potentially turn what was a loss into a win. and the advice was basically, in simple terms, try to figure out who truly believes what they're saying. and this is something that i kinda try to do but don't really do as much anymore. which sucks because i kinda wanna get back to my roots and return to the style of scum hunting i used to employ. and this couple with my bad habit of slacking off when i think i can get away with it is making me feel a bit apathetic towards mafia lately. or at least this is as best an explanation for my current slump in motivation as i can think of.

anyway, how that all relates to here and this game is i've essentially decided to think about this game in simple terms. i am looking over stuff that's happened in this game and thinking about it in the most basic of basic ways: who looks like they believe what they're saying?

and so i'm looking back at certain things that despfish has said and thinking about it in this way and i don't really see them a scum. the vezok push, which i think i talked about at some point earlier in the game, is one of the primary things i'm thinking about here because i don't think that looked like scum ISOing a player and looking for holes in the claim (in the first place, what scum actually does that if they know a claim to be legitimate?) - i think that was a case of despfish truly believing they were on to something there. i'm looking at other stuff they're saying to, from simple stuff like "lol at anyone who thinks there's a chance i'm scum" and variants of this, which i know are not beyond the realm of possibility for scum players (and i know desp is probably capable of writing statements like that as scum) but the way it's coming across in this game looks like someone who believes what they're writing. comments about his flavour and how it relates to this game (including the avon VT stuff and the wallace traitor stuff) also look like they come from someone who really believes what they're writing. and there was one other thing i wanted to mention here but i forgot in the midst of writing this rambling.

on the other hand, you have AD, with his miller claim, which came from suggesting there was a cop in the setup multiple times and while i think initially he might have believed that the setup would have a cop (or investigative role similar to the cop, like a gunsmith), i don't really believe he believes what he's been writing about it. especially to the point of suggesting a town miller was put in as a counter for a scum cop. what i think was happening in this game is AD was crumbing miller because it was win/win for him. either there is a cop and he can point back to all those crumbs if he ever got investigated (crumbs that only started

after

everyone had posted late D2, because not everyone had posted by the end of D1) or there isn't one and no loss, he can just claim miller (and because site meta as it is now is something along the lines of "millers are town!" this works well for someone going for this angle). i also think his play in general comes across as someone who doesn't really believe anything he's writing. his pushes this game have had a lack of conviction. the only scum lynch he pushed this game was a traitor that it's unlikely the scum team knew was a traitor. he had minimal interactions with skot (essentially never mentioning him until the hammer on him after the watcher stuff + claim). after skot, it was basically "titus and/or muffin scum" and it doesn't really look like he actually cares about figuring anything out here. (also, looking back at the way he hammered titus is reminding me of the way he hammered aronis in kotor in that it felt really rushed)

so i'm kinda interested in what you actually think makes MC more likely scum than AD because i'm not really seeing it

also we have a little under the week until the deadline and i wanna hash things out with you sooner rather than later because i'm guessing you probably won't live to see tomorrow regardless of the outcome of today's lynch and this game is a graveyard at the moment

[zMuffinMan]

you haven't acknowledged BBm's existence. Or any further thoughts about pairing me up with Xisi which would require explaining why you don't believe Xisi's role

i haven't talked about bbMolla (or xisiq) but i did the same exercise with them as well

but i don't think bbMolla is scum and since he's not really a lynch option today over you or MC, it's not exactly important to write an extraneous town case on him right now. and i don't really see myself being able to get xisiq lynched except after you're lynched because i think there are associations with you that make sense as scum-scum interactions (and associations with others that don't) but there's speculation that his role makes him likely town and he's not really a lynch option today

as for xisiq's role, i know it makes sense in this setup (from a purely objective point of view, i am not really sure how this setup was meant to be balanced though especially given slandaar's role so it's hard to really tell how much sense it makes in terms of balance) and could very well be a town role here. but based on play, he makes a lot more sense as scum with you than MC or bbMolla

Which indirectly couples with muffin's assumption that as a miller I should realize that there isn't a cop in the setup because flavor. ...

this is a part of it, but not what i was referring to here

even if we accept that you thought a cop was in the setup, the way you were trying to push it against all evidence to the contrary felt really strained and forced

the suggestion of a "scum cop" to find the traitor is an example here, but pretty much every mention of cop in your ISO when it became increasingly clear there wasn't a cop in the game felt forced (e.g. 1920 and 1925 scream fake)

I might be more sympathetic to him if muffin were to unequivocally admit that the above is in fact the case

well, yeah, i kind of am putting all my eggs in one basket here

and i guess if i'm wrong then it significantly increases the chance i'll be lynched in lylo

but i don't really think i'm wrong here

and also the same could be said if anyone gets lynched. for example, up until just recently where you've been kinda suggesting i could be town (and it looks like you're setting up for a potential move to the MC wagon), if i'd been lynched and you're actually town, you'd be in the same situation

so, uh... this kind of a, "well, duh?" statement

[zMuffinMan]

My continuing on the Salamence wagon is because I think claiming scum is garbage, and if he had lived and made it to endgame, I'd be seeing shit threads about "Claim scum! Good play! See here!"

side note: salamence is always a good lynch, don't let anyone ever tell you otherwise

[zMuffinMan]

Still, it's not apparent to me when you say "against all evidence to the contrary" what you are talking about.

claims

[zMuffinMan]

also common sense, since if there was still a cop in the game at that point, they'd have claimed their results (either as a result of being limited in some way such that they didn't have any investigations left and could safely claim or because by that stage of the game they should have had enough useful results to poe the game if they hadn't caught any scum)

[zMuffinMan]

The difference between me and you is that come lylo, if I flip town, your house of cards basically falls down, and you'll be left with no scumreads at all

right

that's part of why i don't think i'm wrong here, though. i don't think i'm misreading the game so badly that this is going to actually be an issue here

(and im pretty sure the use of "if" rather than something like "when" here was an unintentional mindset slip)

[zMuffinMan]

that was desp yes

[zMuffinMan]

genuine

that and the delving into vezok's ISO to look for inconsistencies

[zMuffinMan]

prod dodge. post after sleep

[zMuffinMan]

when I think of Desp, I think of his town self as doing stuff even if he's not seen as looking good for doing it, and his scum self as looking good, but not actually ending up doing much

i associate town-desp with not giving as much of a shit and scum-desp with trying too hard to look town because he cares about his image - in that respect, he's somewhat similar to me in terms of playstyle

Just give me some time to think things over some more, and look at stuff.

btw, deadline is approximate 48 hours from now, just fyi

[zMuffinMan]

off topic, but

You know what fixes it?

Meetups.

america is probably easier for meetups than australia, though, tbh

it's a 90min plane trip (or like a 10-12 hour drive) between any of the major cities on the east coast of australia, and for anyone living in perth, it's about the distance from east-west coast USA to any other major city in australia. plus there's like 10 australian players all up.

[zMuffinMan]

Dan scum with Messiah town is your opinion.
But there should be two scum. Can you give your guess to the second with a short explanation why?

i think xisiq is most likely scum with AD. purely via interactions. they've both had inexplicable town reads on each other for basically the entire game (well prior to any of the claim stuff happening) and AD's interactions with desp and bbMolla don't look like scum-scum interactions. i know xisiq's role makes sense as town here, but i don't think anyone else makes sense as scum with AD

I figured if I was in 3 way LYLO with Muffin and all three seemed town, Muffin would be scum

probably a good rule of thumb, tbh (even though i don't think i'd ever put myself in a situation where i'm in a lylo with 2 town-looking players)

how about we don't let it reach a lylo and then you don't have to worry about that!

[zMuffinMan]

I strongly believe Dan is not scum and I won't vote him

see stuff like this has been happening between xisiq and AD all game, and i don't think i can remember there ever being an explanation for the mutual town reads they've shared on each other for the entire game

[zMuffinMan]

oh right

he has scum meta with you!

well, fuck

it all makes sense now

[zMuffinMan]

was your town read on him based on him calling you town for meta

[zMuffinMan]

is that 12:30pm as in roughly 17 hours from now?

[zMuffinMan]

im just going to assume that's your awful attempt at post-hammer wifom

[zMuffinMan]

Been wrong forever

i loled at this

[zMuffinMan]

i'm pretty sure AD is flipping scum so whatever

[zMuffinMan]

youre cute

[zMuffinMan]

Hi your big suspicion was titus

look fucktard

on the off chance you're not scum trolling

i got a read incorrect

wow

i know that's never happened to anyone else in the history of ever

ive been right on most of the other flips

if you do flip town, i wont even feel bad. i'll probably piss all over your grave, too. i hope the dead QT has spoilers so you can see how fucking awful your read on me actually is

[zMuffinMan]

if you're town, then i messed up on like two lynches this game. you and titus. contrary to popular belief, i'm not infallible. i sometimes get reads wrong

what piece did you give? you've literally done nothing this day phase. or this game. like. nothing. at all. you haven't even given stances on most players prior to today (it looked like you were trying to minimise interactions as much as possible similar to how skot was playing) and your play today has been "durr muffin is scum" which is fucking stupid if you're town. i don't even think you did any reading or considered the possibility i'm town or anything

[zMuffinMan]

If you want to I can but like I gave my piece and you rejected it and tbh it should have been a lot more compelling.

like i don't even know what this means

[zMuffinMan]

I hatbor no illwill

and i know you secretly hate me for that rap battle. i know. even if you never say so, i know. it keeps you up at night. i know

[zMuffinMan]

i was just joking.

and i don't recall you ever "throwing me a bone" or anything like that - you literally been tunneling on me for the entire day, to the extent where you've done little outside of calling me scum. how the fuck am i meant to interpret that? that on top of your entire play this game looks like purely scum-motivated behaviour

[zMuffinMan]

: |

[zMuffinMan]

im town

[zMuffinMan]

ftr the only two people in this game who *actually* have a good record at reading me (vezok and mastin) were both calling me town

ill prob read stuff later today or over the weekend

[zMuffinMan]

telling of what? you did the same thing in pieguy game

[zMuffinMan]

i was referring to desp quickvoting in both lylo scenarios in pieguy game

[zMuffinMan]

mm. in order for adrien to be scum, he either had to have planned out a bus entirely for town cred (and he doesn't really seem the type of player capable of doing that) or someone told him to do it

[zMuffinMan]

interesting

[zMuffinMan]

Vote: Messiah Complex

[zMuffinMan]

:<

[zMuffinMan]

no

[zMuffinMan]

holy shit it's a ghost

[zMuffinMan]

http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/98WaRBdpBXB

[zMuffinMan]

I figured if I was in 3 way LYLO with Muffin and all three seemed town, Muffin would be scum

i loled at this and then made a : [ face