The Wire Season 1 Mafia: Baltimore Police and Omar Victory!

[mastin2]

mastin can me and you solve this game? I'd actually like to win. Shoot questions at me and stuff. Anyone else is welcome to join us obv.

Planning on it. However, I need to extend my V/LA to Tuesday, since I agreed to work Monday morning, which'll eat up my day, there. That'll still leave me a theoretical five days (a practical three days) to work my magic. (Well, with luck, anyway.)

[BBmolla]

Okay, sounds like a plan

I know I sound hypocritical, I'm just kind of in a spot where I don't know and I need someone to show me the obvious shit. Like where AD claims scum or what have you.

[BBmolla]

I do think MC is best lynch today

[ActionDan]

Post

Been in a lull

Muffin not going for me makes me think he's town, but that might just be my ego

I think it makes him lazy. Like saying hed go through mc isos then declares mc is town at the same time voting me.

[zMuffinMan]

I am lazy

[ToastyToast]

Vote Count #24

BBmolla

ActionDan

--Messiah Complex, zMuffinMan (L-2)

Messiah Complex

--mastin2 (L-3)

zMuffinMan

--Action Dan (L-3)

Xisiqomelir

mastin2

TheAdrienC

Not Voting: BBmolla, Xisiqomelir, theAdrienC

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch! Day phase ends on September 14th, 12:30 PST

[zMuffinMan]

Spoiler: @mastin

btw mastin, since you're walling and all, i'm just going to ramble on a bit and hopefully relate it to my thoughts on this game in some way

for the past... month or so, i guess, but mostly for the past week, i've just had a complete lack of motivation for doing anything even slightly mafia-related. i come onto the site thinking, "OK, today is the day i do stuff in games i'm in!" and then open the game threads and just feel the energy draining out of me. i don't know what exactly it is, because it's not like the playerlists are making it unfun and i just, in general, don't sign up to games i don't think will be fun in some way, but i'm feeling really, really burnt out lately. i just don't really give a shit about posting in mafia games. i think part of it, arrogant as it may sound, is that i'm not finding it as challenging as i used to. i don't struggle to avoid being lynched, if i want my scum reads lynched i will get them lynched, and in general i'm more accurate than not and i'm about as decent as any other player when it comes to finding scum, so i can't really recall any games where my reads have been so far off base that i felt i was playing badly.

i mean, in recent memory (since returning from hiatus last year) i've been lynched twice, i think? once as town in a mylo situation where nacho and i were bumping heads due to faulty speculation and not really considering all the evidence properly, and once as scum where i was intentionally playing like a lurksack in an attempt to emulate certain aspects of my town play to fuck with meta players, which eventually backfired when i misstepped. apart from that, town or scum, i've had no real difficulty avoiding being lynched. the closest i ever came to being lynched was that paranoia game that you killed me N1, but even then i successfully derailed the wagon on myself onto a scum player, and my reads were decent (including calling greyice for third party, though he wasn't _exactly_ a lyncher, he was just third party temporarily helping scum). i also think the issue is further compacted when i play with certain players; e.g. when i play with you and i'm town, i find it hard to keep up motivation levels because i know you'll eventually town read me regardless of your alignment which brings out a lot of bad habits in my play. i am the type of person who will procrastinate with stuff if i think i can get away with it, and i am the type of person to get lazy if i have no immediate goal to work towards. and when the goal of being town enough that i'm not going to be lynched has been achieved, i tend to lose focus in games and not give as much of a shit, i think.

another part of it is that the way i've been approaching games lately has been deviating more and more from how i used to play the game, or at least that's what i think. not so much in playstyle, i guess (though i think my playstyle has had some minor and major changes in the past... year or so) but more with how i find scum. i dunno what it is, but i feel i used to be a lot more accurate in getting reads based on reading into motivations and thinking about stuff like that and i don't do that as much anymore. or at least i've noticed times where i look back at things that happened in a game and try to think about where i went wrong in certain reads and why i didn't see motivations for certain actions that, in hindsight, should have been really obvious. i've been reading over games a bit today and yesterday. some of my past games, some games i'm not in, some games that are ongoing. i was reading a newbie game where thor gave some endgame commentary with advice on how someone could have changed their play in the game to potentially turn what was a loss into a win. and the advice was basically, in simple terms, try to figure out who truly believes what they're saying. and this is something that i kinda try to do but don't really do as much anymore. which sucks because i kinda wanna get back to my roots and return to the style of scum hunting i used to employ. and this couple with my bad habit of slacking off when i think i can get away with it is making me feel a bit apathetic towards mafia lately. or at least this is as best an explanation for my current slump in motivation as i can think of.

anyway, how that all relates to here and this game is i've essentially decided to think about this game in simple terms. i am looking over stuff that's happened in this game and thinking about it in the most basic of basic ways: who looks like they believe what they're saying?

and so i'm looking back at certain things that despfish has said and thinking about it in this way and i don't really see them a scum. the vezok push, which i think i talked about at some point earlier in the game, is one of the primary things i'm thinking about here because i don't think that looked like scum ISOing a player and looking for holes in the claim (in the first place, what scum actually does that if they know a claim to be legitimate?) - i think that was a case of despfish truly believing they were on to something there. i'm looking at other stuff they're saying to, from simple stuff like "lol at anyone who thinks there's a chance i'm scum" and variants of this, which i know are not beyond the realm of possibility for scum players (and i know desp is probably capable of writing statements like that as scum) but the way it's coming across in this game looks like someone who believes what they're writing. comments about his flavour and how it relates to this game (including the avon VT stuff and the wallace traitor stuff) also look like they come from someone who really believes what they're writing. and there was one other thing i wanted to mention here but i forgot in the midst of writing this rambling.

on the other hand, you have AD, with his miller claim, which came from suggesting there was a cop in the setup multiple times and while i think initially he might have believed that the setup would have a cop (or investigative role similar to the cop, like a gunsmith), i don't really believe he believes what he's been writing about it. especially to the point of suggesting a town miller was put in as a counter for a scum cop. what i think was happening in this game is AD was crumbing miller because it was win/win for him. either there is a cop and he can point back to all those crumbs if he ever got investigated (crumbs that only started

after

everyone had posted late D2, because not everyone had posted by the end of D1) or there isn't one and no loss, he can just claim miller (and because site meta as it is now is something along the lines of "millers are town!" this works well for someone going for this angle). i also think his play in general comes across as someone who doesn't really believe anything he's writing. his pushes this game have had a lack of conviction. the only scum lynch he pushed this game was a traitor that it's unlikely the scum team knew was a traitor. he had minimal interactions with skot (essentially never mentioning him until the hammer on him after the watcher stuff + claim). after skot, it was basically "titus and/or muffin scum" and it doesn't really look like he actually cares about figuring anything out here. (also, looking back at the way he hammered titus is reminding me of the way he hammered aronis in kotor in that it felt really rushed)

so i'm kinda interested in what you actually think makes MC more likely scum than AD because i'm not really seeing it

also we have a little under the week until the deadline and i wanna hash things out with you sooner rather than later because i'm guessing you probably won't live to see tomorrow regardless of the outcome of today's lynch and this game is a graveyard at the moment

[ActionDan]

and there was one other thing i wanted to mention here but i forgot in the midst of writing this rambling.

Just taking a stab in the dark here but I bet it's the fact that you haven't acknowledged BBm's existence. Or any further thoughts about pairing me up with Xisi which would require explaining why you don't believe Xisi's role, if you are determined to ignore that BBm is in the game and need a 2nd scum.

[ActionDan]

^ Spoiler alert: Very much taken out of context.

Muffin's case = Dan doesn't believe what he's saying. Which indirectly couples with muffin's assumption that as a miller I should realize that there isn't a cop in the setup because flavor. ...

Ofc he's right I don't have interaction with most anyone, also didn't do that much past D1 either, but it's hardly that case that these would push me into scum territory over other candidates (cough-BBM-cough). I this "MC is town" is a supplement for that much broader discussion.

[ActionDan]

Ofc muffin could be town fighting with scraps to survive the lynch today and is just praying I'll flip scum and everything will be ok, self-justifying to himself that MC looks town and therefore It's likely I'm scum, even though the scepter of BBm's and MC's (and [throwing a bone here] Xis's) silence looms over the thread. <--- Unfortunately for Muffin in the event of my town flip (which I'm sure will be oh-so-shocking and oops-I-guess-night-actions-and-role-speculation-were-strong-indicators-of-this-result) he'll have no backup plan, no direction, and no way to save himself from a lynch.

^ I might be more sympathetic to him if muffin were to unequivocally admit that the above is in fact the case

[BBmolla]

AD let's talk

Why do you think I'm scum

[ActionDan]

Never said that.

yet.

Because to me it's either you or desp (unless it's both). And I do think Desp is leaning town independent of all other considerations. For you, I don't think you've done too much more than lurk from memory (glass houses I know). But I do remember you knowingly continuing with the Salamance wagon despite your obvious misgivings. I also remember you commenting on the Mod making his mistake because Bookitty was scum and he replaced one scum for another, which, at the time I thought was pretty towny, no matter if the theory was right/wrong... At the same time, I feel you openly stating that is a good case to base a theory of my own about you and muffin not being scum together.

Which presents me with a problem. In that I find MC townish (though less so than Muffin and for less than Muffin gives him credit for) but I really do think you and Muffin aren't scum together. Something has to give (unless its Xisi, which I doubt very much so).

But anyway that's where I am. I would rather lynch Muffin than you atm, but logic dictates that MC is an optimal lynch.

[BBmolla]

My continuing on the Salamence wagon is because I think claiming scum is garbage, and if he had lived and made it to endgame, I'd be seeing shit threads about "Claim scum! Good play! See here!"

It's no effect at first. But slowly, you start to see more and more people claim scum. "Not a big deal" the common player thinks "People do that every once in a while I guess."

But then it occurs more and more. Two player per game are claiming scum. Then three. Then ten. Then literally all players claim scum as soon as possible, and if you don't you must be scum who is trying to be too serious.

The site meta devolves into this shitfest of people claiming scum because they don't want to be called scum for not claiming scum.

And it all would have happened because of us letting Salamence off the hook.

I didn't push the Salamence lynch to lynch scum. I pushed the Salamence lynch to save mafiascum.

[BBmolla]

Seriously though, I'm not scum, you're overlooking something.

Unless you are scum.

If I claim scum will you not lynch me? Should I try the Salamence method?

[ActionDan]

If I'm overlooking something, it would be overlooking that MC is actually straight up scum, which is indeed possible. Circumstances suggest it's the case. (You might want to help out here and give your own read)

[BBmolla]

Well what do you think of MC suggesting the Doc theory?

[ActionDan]

where/which?

The one in which pants is redirected to Mastin whom Vez saved making Mastin town. The suggestion makes perfect sense and provides more than enough evidence Mastin is town, but is not actually hard to figure out. Eventually, this point of "where did Pants vig shot go?" would have been surmised following SKOTs flip.

[zMuffinMan]

you haven't acknowledged BBm's existence. Or any further thoughts about pairing me up with Xisi which would require explaining why you don't believe Xisi's role

i haven't talked about bbMolla (or xisiq) but i did the same exercise with them as well

but i don't think bbMolla is scum and since he's not really a lynch option today over you or MC, it's not exactly important to write an extraneous town case on him right now. and i don't really see myself being able to get xisiq lynched except after you're lynched because i think there are associations with you that make sense as scum-scum interactions (and associations with others that don't) but there's speculation that his role makes him likely town and he's not really a lynch option today

as for xisiq's role, i know it makes sense in this setup (from a purely objective point of view, i am not really sure how this setup was meant to be balanced though especially given slandaar's role so it's hard to really tell how much sense it makes in terms of balance) and could very well be a town role here. but based on play, he makes a lot more sense as scum with you than MC or bbMolla

Which indirectly couples with muffin's assumption that as a miller I should realize that there isn't a cop in the setup because flavor. ...

this is a part of it, but not what i was referring to here

even if we accept that you thought a cop was in the setup, the way you were trying to push it against all evidence to the contrary felt really strained and forced

the suggestion of a "scum cop" to find the traitor is an example here, but pretty much every mention of cop in your ISO when it became increasingly clear there wasn't a cop in the game felt forced (e.g. 1920 and 1925 scream fake)

I might be more sympathetic to him if muffin were to unequivocally admit that the above is in fact the case

well, yeah, i kind of am putting all my eggs in one basket here

and i guess if i'm wrong then it significantly increases the chance i'll be lynched in lylo

but i don't really think i'm wrong here

and also the same could be said if anyone gets lynched. for example, up until just recently where you've been kinda suggesting i could be town (and it looks like you're setting up for a potential move to the MC wagon), if i'd been lynched and you're actually town, you'd be in the same situation

so, uh... this kind of a, "well, duh?" statement

[zMuffinMan]

My continuing on the Salamence wagon is because I think claiming scum is garbage, and if he had lived and made it to endgame, I'd be seeing shit threads about "Claim scum! Good play! See here!"

side note: salamence is always a good lynch, don't let anyone ever tell you otherwise

[ActionDan]

this is a part of it, but not what i was referring to here.

even if we accept that you thought a cop was in the setup, the way you were trying to push it against all evidence to the contrary felt really strained and forced. the suggestion of a "scum cop" to find the traitor is an example here, but pretty much every mention of cop in your ISO when it became increasingly clear there wasn't a cop in the game felt forced (e.g. 1920 and 1925 scream fake)

I dunno about you, but when you are expecting a cop to be in the game for 4 days running you don't auto shutdown that idea. I retained some hope there was. Still, it's not apparent to me when you say "against all evidence to the contrary" what you are talking about. The evidence of there not being a cop was a cop not claiming when we mass claimed. Only at that point did I relent, producing comments such as 1920 and 1925... and only 1925 has the remotest pushback on their not being a cop which your entire scumread of me is based upon: that is, apparent fakeness in which I continue to think there is a cop in the game.

The difference between me and you is that come lylo, if I flip town, your house of cards basically falls down, and you'll be left with no scumreads at all. Hell, it basically seems to have already done that when titus was lynched.

And you say "I don't really think I'll wrong here". When there is every indication you very much could be. You are, it seems, running imaginary scenarios and always end up with BBm town, and MC town. And me flipping scum with Xisi in tow. That's incredibly narrow thinking.

[zMuffinMan]

Still, it's not apparent to me when you say "against all evidence to the contrary" what you are talking about.

claims

[zMuffinMan]

also common sense, since if there was still a cop in the game at that point, they'd have claimed their results (either as a result of being limited in some way such that they didn't have any investigations left and could safely claim or because by that stage of the game they should have had enough useful results to poe the game if they hadn't caught any scum)

[zMuffinMan]

The difference between me and you is that come lylo, if I flip town, your house of cards basically falls down, and you'll be left with no scumreads at all

right

that's part of why i don't think i'm wrong here, though. i don't think i'm misreading the game so badly that this is going to actually be an issue here

(and im pretty sure the use of "if" rather than something like "when" here was an unintentional mindset slip)

[BBmolla]

where/which?

The one in which pants is redirected to Mastin whom Vez saved making Mastin town. The suggestion makes perfect sense and provides more than enough evidence Mastin is town, but is not actually hard to figure out. Eventually, this point of "where did Pants vig shot go?" would have been surmised following SKOTs flip.

The one that lead to the vezok lynch

Or was that not desp

Who suggested that it was absurd for vezok to protect someone he thought was scum?

[zMuffinMan]

that was desp yes