Trouble in The Cougar's Den (Game over!)

[Heartless]

Spiffeh, I already have to deal with Anti being a doofus. Please don't pile on.

[Heartless]

I disagree. I think it's a Serial Killer.

[Heartless]

the jk+bomb+2nd kill+whatever protective spiffeh's been softclaiming all game do not bode well for rr

neither does the fact that the one time they bothered to get off their asses was to lynch town.

[Heartless]

hold on, let me get the pm

[Heartless]

Oversoul, you are the jack of clubs, a bomb. You used to be called the knave of clubs, and a knave you are—you're making absolute sure you're not going down without a fight! Feisty little one!

You do not have a special ability that you can use at will; however, if you die for any reason other than a self-hammer or a modkill, so does the person or do the people immediately responsible for your death. That is, if you are lynched, both you and the person that casts the deciding vote to lynch you die. If you are targeted for a kill by one or more players, all people that submitted them (whose actions are not stopped) will also be killed.

You win when all threats to the deck have been eliminated from the game.

Please PM me back acknowledging that you understand and confirm your role. The thread is here and you're in a day start.

YOUR HAND
Image

nightkill or lynch

[Heartless]

firebringer... you are an enigma...

your posts are scummy. but you alibi yourself very well in the vca.

[Heartless]

And if you are so sure, why no vote or even direct question(s) for us?

becuz we're scumz and i'm... uh... contradicting myself.

what are you even implying? you're the last person to be criticizing when i vote, esp. considering i'm in a hydra.

[Heartless]

Oh look, here you are again throwing shade on someone. But no questions for firebringer, nor a vote. It's almost like you are suggesting various people who might be scum and waiting to see if someone else will take the lead. What's up with that? You have come across as pretty strong and not scummy most of the game, but this day start feels super wrong from you.

OH JEEZ ONLY SCUM WANT TO MAYBE TAKE THINGS SLOW RIGHT NOW

[Heartless]

seriously, my style has been to thought vomit all game and just now you have an issue with it?

[Heartless]

that's my playstyle. so... the number of fucks i give about the "problem" you have with it is... zero.

here's a question for you: where were you when the lickety vs ank wagon stuff was going down yesterday?

[Heartless]

not yesterday. day 3.

[Heartless]

wait a second... is this cerb or drixx?

[Heartless]

Setup spec won me a game here soooooo yes it is a valid argument.

It doesn't make sense for all three of jailkeeper bomb and bp exist.

a thought i just had...

a strongman + a ninja COULD balance out all the town pr's that flipped w/ the bp being town

[Heartless]

NO I DEMAND ANSWER RIGHT NOW

[Heartless]

of course tomorrow's ok...

[Heartless]

Weird observation: Pisskop has been speculating that the 2nd kill was an SK all game, but then calls it a good vig kill at day start. Heartless, meanwhile, has been calling it a Vig but then changes his mind at day start and says it's a Serial Killer.

Antihero's been calling it a vigilante based on the abstract notion of the kills "making sense" as vig kills and mod meta.

My question

now

is: Who is this vig? If you cross-reference the kills to in-thread reads, the "vigilante" is nobody.

[Heartless]

Oh look, here you are again throwing shade on someone. But no questions for firebringer, nor a vote. It's almost like you are suggesting various people who might be scum and waiting to see if someone else will take the lead. What's up with that? You have come across as pretty strong and not scummy most of the game, but this day start feels super wrong from you.

Anti's not voting because he's waiting for

me

to take the lead.

I'm not ready to default to a Reasonably Rational lynch myself. Firebringer did momentarily abandon the Ankamius wagon for the Lickety wagon on Day 3. What has me more worried is how his hard line Vedith defense just kind of went away for no reason. The only thing about a Firebringer theory is that he would've had to have done an awful lot of bussing this game. From what I recall, he was on all three scum lynches. I also recall that TWIE pushed for the Lickety counterwagon. He made a comment that Lickety would be a superior lynch to Ank or something to that effect. I'm relying on memory here and will have to fact check myself.

[Heartless]

Fb why are you insulted by that lol

BECAUSE I WAS TOLD TO SHEEP HIM BY HIM

THEN HE FUCKING CALLS ME FUCKING SCUM FOR IT

ITS THE MOST SHIT FOR SHIT REASONS TO CALL ME SCUM

It's actually TTH, and please chill the fuck out because I'm not being insulting. I was also not talking about yesterday, when Anti was asking to sheep you, but this:

I am sick of jumping in and off wagons!!!
VOTE: Ankamius
I want LQ and Vedith dead.

Hey scum, do me favor if neither of those two are one of your own, please kill them.

Best of regards and your frenemy,
Firebringer

This happened on Day 3. Up until this point, you were

not

wanting Vedith dead and then in this post you suddenly do. I'm going to look in the intervening posts to see if there's an obvious reason why, but if you'd like to point it out for me that would be helpful.

[Heartless]

Firebringer did momentarily abandon the Ankamius wagon for the Lickety wagon on Day 3. What has me more worried is how his hard line Vedith defense just kind of went away for no reason.

Are you god damn serious?

Fuck you Heartless likely Anti Hero.

So fuck done with this game.

disproportionate. (and i'm ok w/ your bile but if you start talking to tth like this, we might have a few problems champ.)

why do you think you should be above suspicion here? surely i'm not the first one to call you scum ever in any game so why is it particularly bothersome to you here?

is it because you've voted all the scumwagons and i should townread you for that? because you haven't done that.
is it because i've been particularly harsh towards you compared to everyone else here? i don't think i have been.

seriously, how am i bothering you? that's not a rhetorical question.

[Heartless]

Looking at the alive list, I kind of think it just has to be Spiffeh.

...and...?

[Heartless]

The way I see it, we should be looking for a scum who has been among those running the town

what's the basis for this, drixx?

[Heartless]

like... if we were on the tail end of a bunch of mislynches i think that would make sense but you think that after 3 scum lynches over 4 days?

how?

[Heartless]

was the mastin kill you?

that was the one throwing tth for a loop, but i think most of your kills were utility kills and not necessarily shots at scumreads

[Heartless]

readswise, i'm in the same place as spiffeh.

i'm townreading ceph still.
i'm townreading spiffeh still.
twie's claim was pretty expected for me. tth hasn't liked the places he's been all game (like kthnx didn't) but i think this was a case of wrong place, wrong time. town there.
i'm still townreading pisskop too.

i'm not voting until i talk to tth, but i would vote either reasonably rational or firebringer.

[Heartless]

I don't really believe that it's RR, though.

any particular reason for this ceph?

[Heartless]

The anger at you is real, I don't seriously like you keep coming back to me and calling me scum for stuff you told me to do.

if you read what tth wrote, you'll see she didn't do that.

[Heartless]

another question for reasonably rational now that i'm looking at day 1 again:

you were pushing firebringer on day 1, but after day 1 ended you dropped that push but you didn't change the read nor did you give any reasons for why you stopped the push. anything you want to say about that?

[Heartless]

a recent thing he's done is that is was a pretty integral part of that ank wagon. he would've had a really good out with lickety as scum but he didn't take it and he stuck with that ank wagon.

2 kills+ a bomb floating around and you think 2 protectives is unreasonable?

[Heartless]

w/ 2 kills+ a bomb floating around i also don't think 2 protectives would be unreasonable at all.

you do?

[Heartless]

i already said that in my last post......

my brain fell out

[Heartless]

I'm not protective lol

brilliant troll 10/10

[Heartless]

One of the few things I did get to ask Drixx about was this question, because I was a bit confused about it too when you brought it up. He's been suspicious of the people "running the town", as he puts it, for quite some time, since they seem to keep living when it would normally be optimal for scum to kill them. There are two reasons for this conclusion:

1) The fact that we know we are town, and said town bloc has been consistently pushing for us to be lynched when it's unlikely scum would want to attempt to kill us any other way. That leads to the suspicion that some of the motivation behind those pushes isn't pro-town.
2) As I said above, the simple paranoia of the strong voices remaining alive. Simply because the town as a whole has been lynching scum, doesn't mean that the group of people leading the town doesn't include any scum. It's entirely possible they simply were planning on running a bus heavy game to secure the end game(unlikely) or that they just were forced into that position because of the poor play of their teammates(more likely).

1) ok NOW you need to start naming names. we have yet to vote you and the rest of the "town core" contingent that HAS been pushing you (minus ceph) have since flipped town (i'm thinking about peregrine, matt, maxous).
2) bussing in a game with an outside killer is crazy suboptimal. the "poor play" argument could apply to monkeyman and performer, but i don't think that holds for ankamius at all. you had lickety here practically begging to be mislynched and there were also viable outs in vedith and dave. you also had a small number of people actually townreading ank. so uhhhh... no not that either. got anything else, drixx?

[Heartless]

yeah.

i think matt and ceph both asked for a mastin vig.

thats why i clarified that ika and mastin where shot by the same person.

you were townreading matt at the time?

[Heartless]

Not really. I've just been reading their posts all game and have gotten to the point where they feel like town who just keep being so, so wrong, all the time. I also want to believe in a bulletproof in the setup.

How do you justify either of these arguments?
As they've pointed out themselves, they made a case for MonkeyMan and voted him. For the other scum lynches, they weren't much of an entity. What are you referring to that they've been "so, so wrong" about?
Also, why would you believe the bulletproof claim over a hypothetical Spiffeh protective claim?

And

, even if if you believe it, what makes you think the bulletproof claim is town?

[Heartless]

i definitely think pisskop is town

hey ceph, plz refresh me on this

[Heartless]

Heartless, I would honestly need to look at D3 again to make sure I remember what happened correctly, it was the day we were following the game the least, as you've noted...but if I recall correctly the swing monent where the momentum turned away from LQ amd towards Ank came from the unvote you called Ank out on...given his flip, that unvote was objectively bad, since he implied he had suspicions about the composition of the wagon, without having previously expressed suspicion about those slots and without being able to back up his stance. I might be wrong, but I don't think there was really much of a way for him to save himself or have someone save him in that spot...

You are so full of crap.

If it was really that obvious to you, you would have said something at the time and you didn't. Your argument is also contradicted by the fact that the tail end of the wagon was worn down into begrudgingly joining.

and it should be super obvious(since you narrowed those possibilities down yourself) which member of said town bloc we are and have been most suspicious of.

It might just be the only person we actually spent more than a sentence asking questions of this morning.

Oh, of course it's obvious to intelligent people like you and me. But Antihero's a little slow, I think you'll have to spell it out for him.

[Heartless]

Your argument is that Ankamius was likely a bus job given that his unvote was "objectively bad" and there wasn't "really much of a way for him to save himself or have someone save him in that spot." The purpose of the discussion in the first place was to examine the argument that "town leaders are scum" which is propped up by "all the scum lynches were so bad they would have gotten caught anyway." I think

that's

crap because there

were

doubters of the Ankamius wagon who were perfectly willing to give Ank a pass on what you called "objectively bad." The reason the wagon even happened to begin with was a pretty hefty amount of badgering and the failure of the Lickety wagon.

[Heartless]

I isoed MM. Bus.

vote: MM

this is a fun post

twie's the only one still alive who didn't vote monkeyman

anything else?

[Heartless]

This is a prod dogde. But I also wanted to bring you guys some pie.
So enjoy:

Spoiler: Delicious

if i said i might see a few exculpatory things in your iso, would you post more?

[Heartless]

Now on to the crux of what you're calling crap. You seem to be laboring under the mistaken impression that I feel Ank was *supposed* to be bussed. I don't think that's the case at all. I think Ank screwed up at a pivotal moment, and got momentum shifted onto himself, and since in the world I live in, there is a SK, not a vig(this is an aside, but, LQ, as the obvious counterwagon to Ank, who was revealed to be a PR, should not have come anywhere close to consideration for a vig to shoot at. A vig is trying to shoot scum, and shooting LQ almost guaranteed you'd hit town in my opinion.), it seems perfectly reasonable that their partner would realize they had to be on that lynch and not fight against it to have a shot at winning the game.

the momentum GOT shifted?
like momentum is some unnamed, mysterious force outside of the realm of the playerlist?
ankamius didn't pay proper tribute. he angered the ~MOMENTUM~ gods so they smote him in their fury.

the narrative still makes no sense and "town leaders are scum" still sounds like a canned platitude to back a nonsensical push.

[Heartless]

performer and MM tying nooses around their own necks for the entire game.

oh really?

guess performer had you two fooled then, eh?

[Heartless]

if i said i might see a few exculpatory things in your iso, would you post more?

Heartless, you decided like three game days ago I was scum.
I am kinda done trying to convince you otherwise that I am not.

Rather just watch you mislynch me.

We're massclaiming. Please claim and then popcorn.

[Heartless]

twie's already claimed vig.
we're the only ones left and we're vt.

[Heartless]

i'm going off the assumption twie is vig. i've STILL got the mod meta and lickety makes a lot of sense as a vig kill and no sense as an sk kill.

1 jk
1 watcher
1 bomb
2 masons
1 vig

x VT

1 mafia goon
1 mafia ninja
1 mafia vanilla cop

[Heartless]

VOTE: reasonably rational

yeah... a bp would be on the scum side of all that.

[Heartless]

ok, so here's how sc does stuff. it's this old-school, game design paradigm from the late 2000's. he either stacks both sides and gives them counteracting things OR concentrates the power (as opposed to watering down the town powers to where he can keep the scum team fairly vanilla OR spreading out the town power over a bunch of people). in other words, you're not going to see sc use x-shot modifiers or fancy mechanics that often.

you've got the confirmables (the masons, the bomb, the vig, to a lesser extent the jk) and how do you balance for that?

the scum vanilla cop

you've got the incredibly op town investigative in the watcher and how do you balance for that?

the scum ninja

you've got a TON of killing potential in the vig and bomb and how do you balance that?

a scum bp

[Heartless]

yeah... whatever it is i can guarantee you sc didn't leave the scum team defenseless against a bomb and a vig/sk/whatever you want to call it.

[Heartless]

pisskop went quiet....

[Heartless]

why are fire and spiffeh your two?

[Heartless]

you think twie is an sk?

[Heartless]

you were one of the ones we had to drag onto the ank wagon kicking and screaming.

now you're defending rr for weird reasons.

the whole "oh i just want to advance the game" thing gets kinda' thin as the scum numbers start dwindling and i'd like to know the reason for it.

[Heartless]

"waaaaaaah waaaaaaaaah doubtcasting blah blah blah"

there i made your awful post for you

now, a more helpful thing:
1) reasons for why firebringer is scum
2) reasons for why spiffeh is scum
3) reasons for why rr is town

[Heartless]

ceph, same for you.

if you have something redemptive from rr, out with it.

[Heartless]

lol

ok srsly, do you think twie is an sk?

[Heartless]

from my knowledge of sc and from all the kills, i would heavily bet against twie being an sk.

lickety also makes perfect sense as a vig kill. he was uncooperative and just said really scummy things that distracted from actually lynching scum. as an sk going into late game, twie as an sk would have every incentive to keep lickety around and no incentive to get rid of him.

and vig is one of sc's signature roles. even in a game w/ TWO scumteams AND an sk, sc STILL put in a compulsive vigilante.

[Heartless]

alright, case study on sc.

over ALL 12 large themes sc has done.
(this is including the one with a semi-open all lovers mechanic that really should be excluded, so think of it as out of 11)

town vigilante in 9 of them (not counting one of them that had a mechanic that granted a vigilante kill, 100 boxes)
sk in 6 of them (4 of them with a town vig, counting 100 boxes it would be 5)
scum bp in 3 of them (3 of them with a town vig, 1 of them with an sk)
town bp in 1 of them (0 of them with a town vig, 1 of them with an sk)

[Heartless]

take away message

excluding the one with the lover mechanics
and excluding this one bastard game in 2008 or something (scwn I)

there's a vig in EVERY sc game
even the 100 box mechanic, which made everyone vanilla and gave ppl power roles based on opening boxes. guess what one of the boxes was... yep, a vig kill.

EVEN IN THE CASE OF A SERIAL KILLER there's almost always a coexisting vig.

given this data and given the kills, i'm very comfortable assuming twie is in fact a vig.

extrapolating the alignment of the bp is a trickier task. but in my opinion as a game designer (i'm pretty experienced in this as my modding resume is quite lengthy), i think it makes more sense for a bp to be scum in this situation.

[Heartless]

the ONLY weakness in my setup spec is if scum have a strongman, which admittedly would be pretty clever (the idea being that scum have to pick and choose their immunities)

but that's more what i would expect out of a hito game. not out of sc. it would also still leave the killing element wildly unchecked, which is a loose end i just don't think sc would leave hanging.

[Heartless]

the saaaaaaaaaasssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

rr's partner is either fire or ceph, i could see either

[Heartless]

alright moment of truth

[Heartless]

if rr flips scum i don't mind twie taking a shot

[Heartless]

...and that's probably going to be better WITH a firebringer flip. which, honestly, is who's going to be on the lynching block anyway.

[Heartless]

awesome. thanks for confirming the 5 man scumteam for us.

[Heartless]

well... the kill that kind of doesn't add up is actually mastin which is what tth has been worried about so that's kind of in the back of my head.

twie explained that though so eh

[Heartless]

i mean... i would be THAT surprised if it's gg but that would be awfully town sided

[Heartless]

if there is a 5th groupscum, what you're doing right now is optimal play.

[Heartless]

VOTE: twie

[Heartless]

youre willing to bet the game on twie not being an sk? im not.

[Heartless]

out of spiffeh, pisskop, you the townread im least certain of is actually you

[Heartless]

I think it's a lot more likely that TWIE is a serial killer than any of you are scum.

Spiffeh's been ahead of us on the two recent critical scum lynches and the target of Ank's smear campaign. pisskop rolled pretty easily on RR. I guess if I had to pick the

least

town out of everyone it would be pisskop.

[Heartless]

There's really not much of a point in doing that other than making everyone likely wait until tomorrow afternoon to see the flip, depending on if Spiffeh beats StrangerCoug back here tonight.

[Heartless]

You probably

just

missed StrangerCoug.