Tarot uPick II - GAME OVER

[Kamigami]

I have no idea what you're saying then.

[Kamigami]

"Let's lynch vedith" was because vedith lynch was strictly superior to bacde at that moment.

[Kamigami]

5339 was FG, but he's correct about that too.

[Kamigami]

Why is PN town?

If that's addressed at us, Bert's play seems town, Gaiden's revealing that he's the eavesdropper to us fairly early on seems town, and I doubt Anen enabled a scum role that had no real scum utility.

[Kamigami]

I would highly recommend you consult nacho, syryana.

[Kamigami]

VOTE: plotinus

[Kamigami]

Kami, Fluff, PN, WoF.
You are the chosen.

Turkey day prod-dodge, but we appear to have the same suspicions.

[Kamigami]

Zelink's opinions mean just about nothing at this stage. zmuff is a great player, but we have 3 scumflips that he didn't have access to in his analyses.

How about some macro-level analysis, plot. What do you think the scum were doing at the various stages of the game? What do you think they were doing with BRantz? Is there anything interesting about during Day 2 and 3 that jumps out at you?

[Kamigami]

Aj the epic was doing a lot of scumhunting early on, more so than most people, and he had a higher signal to noise ratio than other slots.

Can you run me through the reasoning for AJ-town independent of being a miller?

We rolecopped him because I believed him to be scum, so I'm curious how you came to such a differing conclusion.

[Kamigami]

I do think scum is vedith + somebody in the townbloc so I've been trying to pay attention to how people interact with muki when they post but they post so infrequently that I'm not getting much out of it. Perhaps it'll be easier once vedith subs in.

What is your opinion of the Vedith + Wisdom double-iso between posts 2000 and 2350?

[Kamigami]

I do think scum is vedith + somebody in the townbloc so I've been trying to pay attention to how people interact with muki when they post but they post so infrequently that I'm not getting much out of it. Perhaps it'll be easier once vedith subs in.

What is your opinion of the Vedith + Wisdom double-iso between posts 2000 and 2350?

My first thought was bussing but that's probably just the tunnel talking; it does seem less likely towards the end. I will try to think about this more verbosely soon. I'm pretty distracted right now. I was spectating a recent scumgame of Vedith's; i should reread that ISO to remind myself how he treated his buddy there.

What's the part that looks like bussing?

[Kamigami]

What's the part that looks like bussing?

The early part. 2021 through 2087, especially 2034 onwards. 2209 looks like trying to tie zelink to vedith. But it looks progressively less so over the passage you had me read and then not at all towards the end.

Wisdom knew he was on a clock. Once the lovers thing came out, it wouldn't be long before people start wondering why Wis/Farside weren't getting NKed, and wisdom hadn't really laid plans for survival (such as claiming some negative utility). He also seemed pretty ok with his own death given that he voted farside and didn't back out. He isn't going to be tying people together in a manner that likely clears them once he's dead, instead he'd be doing his best to dissociate himself from his partners.

[Kamigami]

VOTE: Plot

Fine, but you had better be right this time.

I'm glad there are no other real cop shots.

[Kamigami]

is that a 'you're scummy ceph'

if it is, then sorry, but i just don't really care anymore

It is, but there's about 0% chance of a GF, so whatever.

Btw, can you still send messages, or was that limited?

[Kamigami]

shoot me a line, plz.

[Kamigami]

What makes you think plot will flip town?

[Kamigami]

I've forgotten, what was your opinion on PN, AJ?

[Kamigami]

Good, he was townreading people he had no reason to townread, and scumreading people who were scummy but town.

[Kamigami]

I guess snuggling up to the dead thread in case any of them were Restless Spirits didn't work out so well. Maybe next time.

O, this was a scumclaim. Yay.

I think the dead-rule was for Bacde, for fear that dead players would PM him upon death before learning that he could still talk with the living.

[Kamigami]

I forgot about this twilight thing.

Did you already get my message ceph?

I just realized something, and am more sure that I am right.

[Kamigami]

Being able to both act and kill is more the norm than the exception these days.

[Kamigami]

The bacde jail was meaningless, there was no chance whatsoever of bacde having performed a kill, and I'm surprised they decided to make that play.

I don't really fluff is scum, and keep in mind that he gave us a rolecop shot AND let us use it. If plot flips with a role that's clearly scum (and I think he will), it's even more unlikely he'd have done so as scum.

[Kamigami]

really think*

[Kamigami]

I wish Anen had claimed post 1 and just given the town free double lynches until scum were forced to kill him.

I wish Klingoncelt had just vigged the village idiots, or just claim vig and ask the town who to shoot and give town free kills until scum were forced to kill her.

We are in a game that should have ended with town winning awhile ago, and that depresses me.

I'm glad that Kagami was playing Day 7, because in that Day, my frustration and anger burned brighter than thousand suns.

[Kamigami]

AJ, tell me who the last scum is.

[Kamigami]

I want you to state your role and actions once more, updated to current.

[Kamigami]

Please calculate the mathematical probability of every one of your wagers failing so far and report back.

[Kamigami]

oh lol

AJ scumclaimed

[Kamigami]

6.561%

.9*.9*.9*.9*.5*.8*.5*.5 (percent of failure)

I rolled for the sane shot for a while but wanted to try and confirm it.

Vote: AJ

First of all, there's only been 7 Nights.

Second of all, you said you've been trying for watcher in your 5578, not mod message.

[Kamigami]

No.

However, my roles except for N2 have all been over 50 and

I've been trying for watcher

.

It's pretty clear that you've been trying ONLY for watcher in your post here.

[Kamigami]

N6 tried mod chance 50%
N7 tried mod chance 50%

There is no town-motivated explanation possible for trying to go for the mod message in N6 and N7.

[Kamigami]

This is FakeGod, not Kagami.

I basically skipped over everything AJ posted in the water thread, so no, I don't remember.

I will grudgingly go and check it out if you really want me to, but I might get brain aneurysm from reading that neighborhood and may not return.

[Kamigami]

Vedith is unlikely to chime in as he's not really caught up
And Fluff might not be here for days judging by the day 7 "I'll be here soon" things and if they are any indication!

You are not fully utilizing your resources.

Just ask ffery to tell them to haul their asses in here this instant.

[Kamigami]

N1 tried cop chance 10%
N2 tried cop chance 10%
N3 tried watcher chance 20%
N4 tried mod message chance 50% (I think I signified this in the water topic toor )
N5 tried cop chance 10%
N6 tried mod chance 50%
N7 tried mod chance 50%

AJ, order here is different than the one you had in 6448.

Are you even serious?

[Kamigami]

I was naming it off the top of my head the first time. You wanted a percentage so I went to try and calc it. I didn't really think there was anything important to it outside of your disbelief of "Oh well how the fuck haven't you rolled anything yet"

Explain your ever changing story, and also explain why the hell you wasted your actions on worthless mod messages on N6 and N7?

[Kamigami]

Yep just a few posts after that

You're talking about his post 612 I presume.

I think he's just saying that he rolled under 50 once in those three nights.

[Kamigami]

I simply wanted to prove that my role existed at that point.

And pray tell me, what exactly was the point of that?

[Kamigami]

Unvote

[Kamigami]

Sigh.

Vote: Vedith

[Kamigami]

You're probably flipping town, Vedith.

I thought your play got a lot better after early game.

ns is also town. Scum ns would never just allow Nacho stump to go through like that. There are a dozen different and trivially easy ways scum_ns could have manipulated his inventions behind the scene, but he didn't.

Also, I don't actually think AJ is scum. I have a rolecop inno on him, and I'm not going to lose faith in ffery.

I'm pretty sure GaidenBert is the last scum.

[Kamigami]

no bert

scum kills AJ tonight because AJ can just straight up win the game with his 10% cop or 20% watcher tomorrow

if AJ is scum, we yell angrily at ffery in postgame after we lose

[Kamigami]

dude your role is garbage

[Kamigami]

So, Kamigami, if y'all are "pretty sure I'm the last scum" then why are you voting Vedith who you have as probably flipping town based on play? Doesn't compute.

You already answered this question yourself in 6509, but I can answer it for you again.

"I'm going to trust nacho because he's nacho
And because it's true that Vedith could be scum governor and possibly force a no lynch tomorrow if today's lynch is wrong"

And yes, I've never been wrong in LyLo in my entire time on this site, save for one game vs nacho.

Kagami thinks it's vedith, and if he flips town, you.

I think it's you, and if you flip town, vedith. But it makes no sense to lynch you first then vedith second, so.

[Kamigami]

ffery, prod ns please

[Kamigami]

Don't use your power, Vedith.

If you use your power, town loses a mislynch.

Better to die and confirm your alignment if you're town.

[Kamigami]

Vote: No Lynch

[Kamigami]

I see I've been beaten to the thread. I get control tomorrow >.>

[Kamigami]

UNVOTE:

I'm hoping ferry requires a proper majority for NL, though we are going to no lynch.

[Kamigami]

Many do. It's a standard method of preventing degenerate Day phases in cases where achieving a lynch is impossible.

[Kamigami]

k, VOTE: No Lynch

[Kamigami]

Ffery:

Do you have happily ever after rules?

2 days and nights, provided the lacks of death are intentional.

What if the town has reason to believe there exists a purpose to the Night phase (i.e. they aren't just playing chicken with the scumteam)?

[Kamigami]

new plan.

UNVOTE:

Vote: No Lynch for One Million Night/Day Cycles or until someone dies (and no "Happily Ever After").

[Kamigami]

And those night/day cycles are resolved in the same two RL day period. If scum wants to No Kill one million times, they can do so and we'll discuss Happily Ever After on Day 1,000,010.

[Kamigami]

Ask nacho, syry.

[Kamigami]

No, PN. A million times. Don't be dumb.

[Kamigami]

I'm not interested in offering scum an out that they don't deserve because of some scum-sided rule that didn't exist at the beginning of the game.

If there's no difference, then you're indifferent. Vote with us.

[Kamigami]

That makes no sense. There is never a point where us voting no lynch = happily ever after.

Ferry has explicitly stated she will give scum a happily ever after if they choose to take it.

[Kamigami]

yes it does. You're forgetting something.

[Kamigami]

If AJ is town, he will be able to roll for sane cop a million times while sending messages to after each success.

Scum must kill. They don't get a choice.

[Kamigami]

AJ's night action will be as follows:

Hi ffery!

I shall be a busy bee these million nights.

I will roll for sane cop shots and use them on Perpetual Nonsense, Fluff Central, and Kamigami in that order until I get a guilty.

I will then roll for mod messages and send them to all the non-scum telling them my result.

I will then roll sane cop for everyone else just to be sure, and inform everyone via mod message if I get anything odd.

Please tell me what my results are as of night 500,000 so I can make a new plan if there are irregularities.

[Kamigami]

That makes no sense, and is straight-up mod interventionism.

A "happily ever after" position is one in which it is in both teams' interests to continue No lynch/No killing, and thus the game would last forever if both sides play optimally.

That is not the case in this game.

We win if scum decides to keep No Killing forever, or at the very least get a 50/50. The only motivation scum has to not kill is entirely derived from the offer of a "happily ever after" that did not exist until the beginning of this game day and is entirely against the interests of the town.

[Kamigami]

I've offered a solution for the practical problem, which is that it would take many day/night cycles to resolve the issue.

There's no justification for ffery not taking it if scum chooses to No Kill.

[Kamigami]

Send it to night.

I'll discuss this with ferry and whomever else is relevant during the down time.

[Kamigami]

whoever*

[Kamigami]

If we no lynch, will there be a happily ever after if scum no kills?

[Kamigami]

I would like to know.

[Kamigami]

The situation as we understand it is that AJ was holding a Sane Cop shot yesterday, after having failed many times prior.

In these circumstances, ffery posted 6559, in which she can't think of a reason for happily ever after not to be the resolution, even when she knows there's an active Cop running around who clearly makes Day 9 very different from Day 8 in the absence of kills.

[Kamigami]

I'm unsure where I should stand on my faith in ferry here.

Does ferry put a ridiculous percentage role with a 20% chance to be extremely powerful on a given night and is otherwise useless, or does ferry make a scum miller?

Did ferry have a very irregular understanding of Happily Ever After, or is it the correct one, though only from the omniscient standpoint?

[Kamigami]

Imo, the crime of a including scum miller with multiple rolecops is less egregious than the percentage role, and one that we know ferry/bork was exposed to.

Why does fluff give us tincture when pretty much every scum seemed to think it was a good idea to fake-claim?

[Kamigami]

AJ could have just killed Fluff and won outright.
But that goes for all of you if you made a given certain decisive night kill before this no lynch stuff happened

This is kagami, not FakeGod. The idea that you were certain to be lynched is nonsense.

[Kamigami]

Though in a sense, you are correct. FG asked me to vote you immediately on day-start during Night 7.

[Kamigami]

FG was lying though, I was telling him to lynch AJ >.>

[Kamigami]

He really looks like he was holding a cop shot yesterday. Maybe ffery just didn't care about HEA because she knew it would be irrelevant.

[Kamigami]

I think AJ fakes a guilty on you rather than an inno. Or better yet, an inno on fluff.

[Kamigami]

AJ also doesn't point out that ns is active if he plans to inno you. He would want it to look like the no kills are because of absence.

[Kamigami]

I'm probably voting fluff. Going to review more thoroughly once I have the chance.

[Kamigami]

When would we have died?

[Kamigami]

What were the restrictions on your abilities?

[Kamigami]

How did the stumpy fluid work, OT? Did simply having it make you invincible or did you have to consume it on the night you died?

[Kamigami]

Why do you think there were No Kills, bert?

[Kamigami]

I think the following people are town-
OT
Kamigami
Luna
Bert
Vedith
Ika Zaru
Aneneneneneneininienenen
Klingon
Tammy
prohawk
WoF

Maybe pie but I'm not sure who to put her in place of.

This was why I liked you guys even before the role info came out. I agreed on most points, and we now know you were right on all of them.

[Kamigami]

Why did you give the tincture to us instead of someone like OT?

[Kamigami]

pisskop discredited the reads in the water hood.

[Kamigami]

Why did you give the tincture to us instead of someone like OT?

actually, vedith was probably the optimal recipient if he could be counted on to use it properly.

[Kamigami]

ns, there has been no point in this game when it would have been reasonable for us to die over the killed player, except maybe for N3, where scum had probably rolecopped Tammy.

You know full well that Luna was expected to have a useful result the Day following her death, whereas we had no shots. The scum has killed confirmed town every single night.

[Kamigami]

I'm not townreading you I just think Kami is scummier

Bert, listen to gaiden for a bit, and I don't mean that he thinks I'm a good scum player because of Monogatari (which is pretty much where the scum read is coming from). You guys even have access to the water hood, which contains some pretty fantastic scum theatre if you think I'm scum with pisskop.

Does gaiden think I wouldn't have coached pisskop and plot? There's absolutely no chance pisskop would have claimed what he did if I were his partner. Plot would also have been non-useless.

[Kamigami]

We also have no reason to No Kill. We had fine position coming into Day 8, and would have just killed Fluff. There's no way I'd take a happily ever after thing in these circumstances.

[Kamigami]

what does fakegod think about this all?

FG has made two relevant posts since daystart. First is an 'ok, I guess PN is town then,' second is that the fate of the game relies on me strongarming PN into voting fluff.

[Kamigami]

The rest are about mostly about blacklisting.

[Kamigami]

We're not No Lynching. PN is confirmed town, the only thing the No Lynch does is give scum the opportunity to draw the game if they think they'll lose, which they know at this point.

[Kamigami]

I'm hoping there's a rhetorical basis for this line of discussion and that you've not gone insane, nacho.

[Kamigami]

Until today, I thought it was AJ. Now I think it's fluff.

[Kamigami]

Helping you lead the Brantz wagon

This doesn't matter. Scum probably didn't know that Brantz was scum.

Btw, this is clearly untrue and highly relevant to any Day 1 analysis. Scum knew Brantz was a traitor by the end of the Day, and Brantz knew who the scumteam was.

[Kamigami]

They knew after his readslist.

[Kamigami]

Why? Preferably in the form of "why is fluff scum?" as opposed to "why is AJ town?".

Unfortunately, much of my reasoning is that AJ is town.

Best argument for NS-scum independent of that is reduction in presence throughout the game and that it best explains the No Kills.

[Kamigami]

The first one.

[Kamigami]

They had gone to great effort to make scum theater between those two scumreads.

They knew no one would naturally arrive at that conclusion.

Wisdom immediately decides brantz is town; they knew a traitor existed from the start.

I also suspect that the placement of scum in the null reads was intentional, making it critical to the scumteam that brant not flip.

[Kamigami]

Notsci-scum is not the best explanation for No Kills; would you like to give me reasoning as to why you disagree with that statement?

AJ does not No Kill last night. If he plans on magically producing an innocent, he does so the Night before. I don't think AJ planned to dance around a HPE that shouldn't be. As I told WoF, if AJ is scum, the mod wins and I don't care anyway.

NS does No Kill. He's been in a situation where he's been default townread throughout. Bringing the game to 3 players ends that. You know he hates to play scum, and you know he hates being in his current situation. He actually has reason to take a HPE, and reason to risk AJ getting a result in order to prevent an elimination.

[Kamigami]

NS was not the weakest townread. You are reading a different game.

[Kamigami]

PN was the weakest.

[Kamigami]

Who was scumreading Fluff and not PN?

[Kamigami]

If we were scum, we obviously shoot fluff, then AJ votes with us to win. There is no world where we do not take a "2 to lynch" with one unshakeable town support over a "3 to lynch."

[Kamigami]

Can you also outline Fakegod's weird reaction to the Happily Ever After situation?

That was my reaction. FG only made the first vote, which I thought would immediately No Lynch at the time.

I thought I was pretty clear there. Offering a HPE under circumstances where the gamestate substantially changes in a No Lynch -> No Kill is a mod error, especially given that there was no such clause from the outset.

[Kamigami]

Fluff is scum by elimination.

He did not have some grand plan to manipulate you, he and his partners just thought for whatever reason that keeping you around was worth the towncred.

The towniest thing he's done is give us the tincture that we used on ProHawk to confirm what he had told medea and medea had told WoF and WoF had told us. He had no idea at the time that it could be used to such effect, he only knew that no scum player had an incriminating role.

[Kamigami]

I could give you an actual scum-case on AJ, who has terrible interactions was on the wrong side of pretty much every lynch, and who failed to claim miller on Day 1, I just think that's outweighed by his Role Name and recent behavior, coupled with the meta damage of lynching him.

[Kamigami]

If you are indeed a scum miller and we lynched you, this would forever be the game that mods point to and say "Hey, scum miller with town rolecops are totally ok. Look how this town won despite triggering it!"

The most recent back and forth with Ceph was pretty much me telling him this, and him telling me not to worry about meta.

[Kamigami]

Nothing, I talked to GiF about it.

[Kamigami]

If you are indeed a scum miller and we lynched you, this would forever be the game that mods point to and say "Hey, scum miller with town rolecops are totally ok. Look how this town won despite triggering it!"

The most recent back and forth with Ceph was pretty much me telling him this, and him telling me not to worry about meta.

This is bad.
You saying "I don't know why Fluff is scum. He's just scum because AJ is town." is worse.

You can say what you like. You have a fixed belief that Fluff is town, which is wrong.

You're using that elimination to call us scum despite overwhelming evidence that we're town.

[Kamigami]

What is the overwhelming evidence that you're town?

Every single interaction I've had with every scum in this game has been them being indignant that I'm scumreading them and them trying to defend themselves. In the Water hood especially so.

We have the only Cop shot in the game, aside from AJ's 10%, or you believe we had a fake-claim for a Sane Cop shot while no one else did. It is also the only thing that can interact with AJ's miller-ism.

We used all of our shots to clear critical players, most notably ProHawk, when we could have easily used them elsewhere without loss.

We didn't claim a Cop on AJ, when we could have done so and gotten tons of towncred while also getting a free mislynch. Instead we decided to tunnel a partner that Day.

We would never have No Killed. We'd immediately do to 3p for the win. There was no meaningful suspicion on our slot.

[Kamigami]

Yes you do. You're not the only player in the game.

[Kamigami]

NS did not give us the rolecop. We rolecopped AJ N2.

[Kamigami]

Rolecop on N2. Used on Prohawk N3.

[Kamigami]

It's description is also misleading, it functioned identically as our rolecop despite claiming to have a weaker power.

[Kamigami]

OK.

Why haven't you addressed the makeup of the scumteam at all?

What about it? We don't know their roles. We can infer Brantz had offensive blocking abilities while pisskop had at least an ascetic shot.

[Kamigami]

It's description is also misleading, it functioned identically as our rolecop despite claiming to have a weaker power.

What does this mean?

The tincture claimed it would give us the target's primary ability. It returned the role name like our role cop.

[Kamigami]

Because you were interested in the tincture, you seemed to think we got it N1 and used it twice.

[Kamigami]

Also, whoever sent us the new gear is town or very dangerously gambiting scum.

We already know that the mafia version of JoaT doesn't have limited shots.

[Kamigami]

accidental quote, was digging up tincture stuff earlier.

[Kamigami]

I received music from plot-slot N1. Someone else did later and then PN did N4, I think.

[Kamigami]

I had also asked ferry what her understanding of JoaT was, and her response specifically defied the typical interpretation of one-shot roles.

[Kamigami]

Jack of all trades, and yes, only 2 one-shot powers.

[Kamigami]

Gaiden, are you around?

[Kamigami]

i approximately exist.

(^.^)/

[Kamigami]

Still want to find a time to talk to gaiden if that's possible. It's been hard for me to have a good time with xmas on the way.

[Kamigami]

We need gaiden.

[Kamigami]

Question: Please vote NS.

I still think there's a somewhat non-zero chance that AJ is scum, but that appears to be a lost cause for us anyway.

I wanted to discuss some saddening news that FG recently told me, and to appeal to you on a couple of points, but I suppose we can do that later.

Win for Suika, win for FG, vote fluff.

VOTE: Fluff Central

[Kamigami]

"Please vote NS now, buddy, we can chill later" is a lame appeal.

Why not mention those points now?

Because Nacho has some strange priors that makes his opinions dangerous.

Nacho believes that we somehow HAD to clear AJ, because we had gotten a rolecop shot from ns. What actually happened is that we cleared AJ on Day 3, before we had a chance to use the gifted shot we received on Night 2. If I were scum, I'd have simply claimed to be a 2-shot Sane Cop with a guilty on AJ, thereby getting both a free mislynch and

lots

of towncred. No one would speculate I had rolecopped him rather than copped him, and cops are town.

I used the rolecop shot gifted to us on Prohawk, clearing both him and (indirectly) medea. Not only did I clear them for town, but I already knew PH's role if I were scum, and had lost the chance to use it in a pro-scum fashion if I were scum, while there were lots of reasonable targets available to me.

Nacho somehow believes that ns has stopped hating being scum. This is nonsense. He and bins have vanished because they are scum, and also because their strategy of posting 100% correct reads stops working when you need to mislynch those perfect townreads.

If I were scum, I didn't need to lynch pisskop. You have access to the neighborhood. It is 100% obvious that his hope was that he'd live through Day 3 and that Wisdom's flip would somehow clear him. For some reason, I decided to scuttle that possibility and lynch him, even using a very correct argument about his made-up role, which I'd never have allowed him to claim as a partner.

I continue to think that scum were aware there was a traitor, and that BRantz had delivered a strong enough signal that they immediately knew it was him and that they didn't want him to die. The position of the scum in BRantz's readlist delivered that signal.


Really, I was just hoping you'd trust me and vote fluff. I actually think there's a significant chance it's AJ and we're all just spinning our wheels, but since that's off the table, NS is the correct lynch, and most likely to flip scum. If the day last much longer without Nacho changing his mind, I worry that I won't have nice things to say post-game, and I don't like saying not-nice things.

[Kamigami]

You're underweighting the point that NS vanished.

He employed a strategy of being impossibly pro-town. His readslists are all perfect. He was certain that wis was scum, voting idiocy only when prompted by OT to switch wagons due to their equivalence. Despite this, he had kuroko as scum on D3.

He gave his toys to town only, though I suspect he was forced to, which likely prompted the strategy in the first place.

He vanished when it was no longer tenable to have supernatural reading powers, and despite having a scumread on KN D3, he's hesitant to vote plot because of mystery reasons.

[Kamigami]

I think Gaiden will also confirm that there's exactly 0 chance I'd have no-killed, especially given the possibility of a happily-ever-after.

[Kamigami]

How on earth can this be something that you honestly truly believe?

Because that's how it is. You can think what you like, but I expect an apology post-game.

[Kamigami]

I don't think you're a master manipulator by any stretch of the imagination. Nacho is assisting you for reasons I can't begin to fathom, but whatever. I'm just going to lay it out here.

You got an inventor role PM. I don't know if you had any additional constraints, but I doubt you were able to give the treestumper to a partner at the very least. I suspect you were also required to give your toys to different players each Night.

You decided from the outset that you're going to only townread town and vote scum whenever reasonable. You also decided to give out your toys to town if you weren't forced to. It was a gambit, nothing more, from someone who doesn't like playing scum and wants to try something easy.

When Day 4 comes along and three partners are dead, your posting becomes sparse and mechanical.

Nacho can say whatever he wants, but that's what happened. If he wants to call it "dumb," then I expect a full apology post-game. I expect him to tell me exactly why he called an idea "dumb" that turns out to 100% correct. I would appreciate it in the form of a ballad titled "Everyone Surrounding Cassandra was an Idiot."

There remains a reasonable chance that it's AJ, but whatever. I already talked to WoF about that, which will also be revealed post-game.

[Kamigami]

You realize that you're trying to say that I lolbussed my team, right? Except I went all the way, bussing plot as well.

You could have stumped tammy, you chose to stump nacho. I don't think it matters either way, really, but I don't think stumping Tammy makes a lot of sense as either alignment.

I don't care why Nacho thinks you're town. I know he's wrong unless AJ is scum. He deserves to be treated thusly.

[Kamigami]

Yes, I'm willing to lose for that, but I don't think that's the case anyway.

[Kamigami]

I gave you a model for NS's behavior that is completely correct; you're dismissing it because of your own biases which are incorrect.

I know perfect well I'm not going to get my ballad, and the reason is going to be "I was right given what I thought and it was totally your fault that I was wrong."

I'm not happy and I'm not going to say the kind of things I should say because I don't say such things, as you should be aware.

[Kamigami]

Yes, I'm willing to lose for that, but I don't think that's the case anyway.

If you don't believe it is the case, why keep mentioning it? If you think there's a possibility, why not give it some actual thought? This middle ground of suggesting it's there but doing nothing to address it is not proper.

Because I like being right. I know there's a non-zero chance you're scum and it will never vanish; I will never say I'm certain you're town.

[Kamigami]

That's true. I thought it was a good list and I was right.

[Kamigami]

Because I thought Vedith was town and AJ was scum.

[Kamigami]

Cop result was influential but not 100% of it. He is off the table because he's lower likelihood scum than ns, and we lack position to drive a lynch on him anyway, largely because of OT's nonsense.

The relevance of the cop result is that he inno'd you when it would be more in keeping with a scum win-con to either guilty you or inno fluff. It's also relevant that his Day 9 play looks like he has something, and I don't think he's a great actor.

[Kamigami]

What makes you think he is not a good actor?? :/

Because I thought he was extremely scummy for most of the early game, and would have lynched him over pisskop without the rolecop result. If he's scum, he would have had to suddenly become good within the past few Days.

[Kamigami]

I would actually not be unhappy at this point if we go to night and fluff goes for the no kill.

[Kamigami]

The good news is that it's pretty probable that we get to No Lynch, and ns can't afford to kill PN.

So you don't get to lose us the game!

[Kamigami]

You're doing your best.

[Kamigami]

If it makes you feel better, I had enough respect for you that I've asked over the course of several days enough questions to determine that it's impossible that you changed alignment, that you gained a win condition with the tincture thing, and that there's no possibility of a judas-like role.

[Kamigami]

You've asked for an argument on NS scum.

I think he's deliberately gambitted on a strategy of basically being as pro-town as possible and hoping that he can get through the game that way. It likely would have backfired if klingon and anen had used their roles properly, but they didn't. I think this is in keeping with the general scum macro-plan which seems to have involved wisdom getting himself killed early and trying to make KN appear obvtown.

The best argument, and one that's very correct despite your objections, is that he can't keep it up. Yes, NS has been trying harder lately, but he still hates being scum and this situation we're in today probably causes him near-physical pain. He did indeed vanish about when there were no partners left to safely bus. He was resistant to bussing plot, I think because of the remnant of the "KN goes the distance" plan. Bins doesn't like being scum either (FG tells me).

I also do think it's relevant, again despite your objections, that NS listed 11 people as town and that they were all town. Yes, I had similar reads and I even said so in the water hood. That readslist seemed so good to me that that's the reason I had him as town for much of the game. None of this changes the fact that there's about a 1% chance of successfully naming 11 out of 16 town in a 21 player game, and though I like ns, I just don't think he

that

incredible.

Have to put child to sleep, will continue this later.

[Kamigami]

Maybe he should generate an argument for why I'm scum, because what he had at the beginning of the day is "Kamigami should have died," which makes no sense, but is somehow more compelling to him than AJ being scum.

[Kamigami]

Then I'm sorry that your model is wrong, and I hope you update it.

I'm not sure what more you can expect.

I lynched scum every day I was active except for kling, who I defended the best I could at the level of confidence I had. I have performed nearly flawlessly with Night actions. I'd have won this game for town if NS had not given you that tincture, as you note above.

[Kamigami]

anyway, actually have to get this kid to sleep.

[Kamigami]

No Lynch is likely the end of the game.

NS can't afford to shoot you while AJ remains a question mark. He can't shoot AJ because then you're certain to re-evaluate.

Bert, consult Gaiden. I know he's been less active, but he knows me well enough to be able to sort this out if he reviews a bit.

[Kamigami]

What are your thoughts right now, AJ?

Kami's push for a no-lynch now doesn't make sense for town, considering their prior position. I don't believe that FG wants this ending in a draw under any circumstance.

Why do you think these things?

[Kamigami]

They don't know I get cop, but they did suggest that I postured like I had a cop shot waiting. If they suspected a cop-shot, the chances of them winning with a kill is 50/50 considering I'd obviously cop one of notty/pn. But if they don't figure this, I don't see any benefit to take a no-kill. They'd be better off taking a 3-person Lylo unless they suspect I won't vote with them.

This is correct mostly. It looked to me like you had a cop shot, as is evident from my sudden acceptance of the vanilla No Lynch yesterday following 6587. If I were scum, not only do I not No Kill again (which I wouldn't have done in the first place), I'd have shot you last night without fail.

[Kamigami]

VOTE: Kamigami

Is this gaiden? Is there a reason behind this?

[Kamigami]

O, you were scum?

I guess I feel better about that.

[Kamigami]

This game should have been called on Night 2.

[Kamigami]

NS is voting me. If you're town, you just lost.

I was hoping gaiden would answer first, I would like him to be explicit if he's mostly sheeping nacho so that nacho can't pull a "Gosh, it wasn't my fault, I didn't even have a vote!"

[Kamigami]

FG said nothing about a clear victory. He agrees with me that Ferry interceded on scum's behalf.

[Kamigami]

I interpreted that way initially, but even with the superficial interpretation, you'd have been forced to perform cop investigations given enough nights.

In any case, ferry rightfully didn't count the vote. You lose, though I feel a little bad about being mean to nacho.

VOTE: AJ

[Kamigami]

Ferry should have answered my question about it truthfully if what you are saying is true, though.

[Kamigami]

AJ confessed, bert.

He screwed up; I knew I wasn't lynched, but that was my last ditch effort to save the game.

Yes, it's anticlimactic, but he acknowledged himself that ns's vote wasn't counted.

[Kamigami]

It just means that we were all right, and I feel justified in primarily focusing on making an argument for town-me.

I admitted to having a weak case on Fluff, but yeah, scum miller.

I feel slightly vindicated in that I told WoF it was plot and AJ back when we had the final message exchange, and have been substantially understating my AJ scumread. That said, if I suddenly gained a quad-vote, I'd prob have lynched fluff anyway.

[Kamigami]

I do think nacho should still have been more exploratory. There was really no reason to harass only me.

[Kamigami]

I think my biggest with scum miller here, outside of the fact that I detest GFs and consider them an abomination of game design, is that the scum-team was already immune to rolecops. Not only does the GF make the three available rolecop shots negative utility, the fact that the rest of the scumteam is already rolecop immune makes it very hard to justify scum miller speculation outside of extremely scummy behavior.

[Kamigami]

issue*

[Kamigami]

winning this game had me conflicted in many ways.

When a triggered godfather wins, nobody feels like they won.

[Kamigami]

btw, I'm curious about your role. Spoilers? Was there actually a wager?

[Kamigami]

The problem with godfathers is that outside of extremely suspicious play, it's never objectively correct to lynch an innocent.

That's even worse with a scum miller, because the objectively correct play for a town rolecop is to check a miller claim, so a properly played scum miller claims in post 1 and is guaranteed to trigger in the presence of a town rolecop.

I suspect you and your predecessor failed to claim for fear of being vigged, but the reality is that it's pretty unlikely you'll be policy vigged, and the benefits of being rolecopped are game-winning.

[Kamigami]

Town's power in part depends on whether anen could trigger deaths more than once.

If so, then we were crazy powerful. If not, then we were still pretty powerful, provided kling used her vig shots.

Both anen and kling were afraid of using shots because they don't like killing town, which is what's most likely to happen. What they failed to realize is that if you cause a death on someone scummy, and especially if you hit scum, you get tons of town-cred. Enough that they wouldn't have been lynched over plot-slot.

[Kamigami]

:<

[Kamigami]

Props to ns, btw. Very good reads throughout.

[Kamigami]

Thanks for modding.

As a minor note, while I enjoyed the flavor and am happy you spent so much time on it, it would have been nice if there was a separate flavor-account posting it. I had a hard time reviewing VCs at times.

[Kamigami]

<- excited to see role PMs, btw

[Kamigami]

Well, voting me before going down was part of what fooled nacho.

[Kamigami]

I intimated as much to WoF, but the reality is that I'd have pushed to lynch AJ if I were sufficiently confident.

[Kamigami]

An out-of-game effect that

did

influence that decision is that it's so terrible to lynch "conf"-town in the case that they really are town that I gave the "losing to scum miller" possibility extra weight.

I don't really care about teaching ferry a lesson in any case. I care somewhat about the integrity of games as a whole and have very little confidence that other mods who use GFs will balance and swing-dampen appropriately.

[Kamigami]

Did you actively have me as scum? I think you might've before the RC but after I never felt any threat of being voted from you.

Ceph will confirm that I had you as high-probability scum miller.

[Kamigami]

This was a goofy hydra, I had literally no control of it on D2.