BIOCHEMISTRY - game over, finally, it's only been 5 months

[mastina]

Yo.

Bit busy at the moment, but I should

probably

stop in to give brief feedback.

I figured I was getting town, though I'm a bit annoyed I was right--if I was scum, I wouldn't actually need to READ, but since I'm town I've got 80 pages to catch up on. That's gonna take a while, gonna be a bit before I get into there more. But,

beeboy - 4 (Sakura Hana, Gorkington, Vecna, Rick and Andrea)
BigYoshiFan - 1 (Creature)
Creature - 5 (Rem and Ram, Majiffy, Voices of Truth, beeboy, BigYoshiFan)
Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)
Vecna - 2 (Vifam, MagnaofIllusion)
Voices of Truth - 3 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne, Ankamius)
Not Voting: kuror0

It's a safe enough bet beeboy is town.
Not sure if Creature is scum, but I'll sheep Majiffy's vote for the time being, so.

Vote: Creature

.
Voices of Truth could also be scum with those names on it.
Also apologies MoI didn't realize you were in this game but I suppose that makes us even?

I'll try not to be too much of a bother, basically just came into this game because I played both organic and inorganic chemistry, love the mechanics, love anti, would've signed up if I saw the game in signups, missed it, saw the replacement request, have read absolutely nothing except my role PM, and am here basically just to get nightkilled at some point. (Who knows when.)

[mastina]

Rem and Ram (Alisae and Human Sequencer)
Rick and Andrea (Firebringer and MariaR)
Voices of Truth (Titus and Thinkbig)

Righto. This gives me a much better idea of the gamestate.

Just off of knowing who the actual hydras are, and their votes, I'd venture a guess Titus is town and sheepable, though it'd be possible she's scum; in particular I'll need to have a good look at her reasons to be on Creature, and to look at Creature because that's easily something to answer: if Creature's town then Titus should know it, and if Creature's scum then Titus would know it.

I'm starting this game by reading from where I replaced in to get the general gist; I'll read from the beginning after that, but that'll have to wait. I'm like, multitasking to the max right now; I'm quite literally doing five, ten things right now, so just getting up to speed quickly, to dive in properly later.

[mastina]

Mastina I have a light townread on your slot if you come in here and instantly find scum like you did in the last game were in together Id be eternally grateful for the lack of work Id have to put in

Gonna be a bit harder this time, sorry. I can make myself obvtown easily enough, but I'm reading posts and my eyes are going blank and I'm like, "you know I should be getting reads from these words but right now they're just...words". Like, as in. Literally every player I see town in; literally every player I see scum in.

I'm not even sure Creature's scum, to be honest. For Smackdown, I replaced into a game which was near the end, with all the data--plus, I had read bits and pieces relevant to the game PRIOR to replacing in. (Namely, I wouldn't have even replaced in if not for me hearing references to the game from some of its players.) Here I'm literally going in blinder than blind.

I didn't even know my neighborhood (assuming everyone is in a neighborhood so no point in hiding this) wasn't the only neighborhood in the game when I first posted in it--fuck, didn't even know the whole playerlist since I jumped from my role PM straight into the neighborhood and came to the game thread only after having posted there. (Also, fuck that mechanic. A game with one neighborhood is worth using that neighborhood. A game where every player is in a neighborhood and this is public knowledge is just asking for trouble, so. Use of it diminished, half my plans ruined though some may still stand.)

I'm not getting much from posts right now, so it's looking like I'll have to do this the hard way. I'll maybe try to see if I can get a jump-start via VCs, but I'm sure not gonna nail scum from it, at least not reliably so. Certain gamestates are easier to spot scum in than others; this one's probably not impossible, but it's not going to be as easy as I was hoping it'd be. Sorry. That's the best I've got to say at the moment; we'll have to see what I can do later.

[mastina]

Mastina to catch you up here:
Town List: Arthur, Sakura Hana, Vifam, Gorkington, Marquis, Yoshi
Very Likely Town: Voices of Truth, Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, Majiffy
Scum/Unsorted: You, Creature, Vecna, MagnaofIllusion, Ankamius,
~Rick

Well to be honest if I go blind idiot guessing: I can go SAD/Sakura/Gork as probtown; Vifam leantown; VoT/Spiffeh/Rem leantown; Vecna/Ank leantown.

But by blind idiot guessing: haven't seen Marquis so no judgment, Yoshi would be on the opposite side as a leanscum, Majiffy's disconcertingly ambivalent, Creature also ambivalent (need to see more of the game on him), MoI no posts so no opinion though given the number of leantowns by blind idiot guessing he'd probably be scum.

These reads are quite literally shots in the dark though.

[mastina]

@Sakura Beeboy is in my scum list, I am surprised I forgot him.
~Rick

I feel pretty shitty because I just replaced into this game, a game Firebringer was playing presumably just fine without me being in it, and my first instinct is in fact a scumread.

[mastina]

but I'll sheep Majiffy's vote for the time being, so.

Don't remember you being lazy. What happened?

There's a difference between being lazy, and being busy.

This is the latter, still have a lot of work to do this game.

I do apologize I don't have a firmer grasp, will fix it...soonish. Vaguely, anyway.

[mastina]

General thoughts: extreme lack of cohesion on wagons tends to strongly suggest we've mostly been wagoning town. The number of wagons and disappeared wagons is off the charts; there's no cohesion at all, so this is probably a scattered town.

Spoiler: First impressions

beeboy - 1 (Sakura Hana)
Creature - 1 (Rem and Ram)
Rem and Ram - 1 (BigYoshiFan)
Vifam - 1 (Voices of Truth)
Gorkington - 2 (Rick and Andrea, beeboy)
Rick and Andrea - 2 (Gorkington, Vifam)
Voices of Truth - 2 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne)
Ser Arthur Dayne - 3 (Spiffeh, Vecna, Creature)
Not Voting: kuror0, MagnaofIllusion, Majiffy, Steven Quartz

Gutfeels analysis would suggest

probably

a scum within Rem/Yoshi.
Also, probably 1-2 scum in Rick/Marquis.
If there's scum on SAD, Creature would be the most likely; Spiffeh next-most-likely.

beeboy - 1 (Rick and Andrea)
Creature - 1 (Rem and Ram)
Rick and Andrea - 1 (Gorkington)
Sakura Hana - 1 (Vifam)
Ser Arthur Dayne - 2 (Vecna, Spiffeh)
Voices of Truth - 3 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne, beeboy)
Rem and Ram - 5 (BigYoshiFan, Majiffy, Voices of Truth, Creature, Sakura Hana)

Not Voting: kuror0, MagnaofIllusion, Steven Quartz

Same gutfeels suggest 1-2 scum in Rick/Rem, though to be honest that's the only useful piece of info I can glean from here without context--yes there's a Rem wagon, a sizable one which wasn't there before, but lacking more info I can't actually make anything of it; scum could exist in any combination between VoT, Rem, and Not Voting. I give the SAD wagon

slightly

reduced chances of containing scum, but only marginally so. (If default was 50, we're talking 49, maybe 48.)

Creature - 3 (Rem and Ram, Gorkington, Majiffy)
Rem and Ram - 3 (BigYoshiFan, Voices of Truth, Creature)
Not Voting: kuror0, Steven Quartz, Vecna
Ser Arthur Dayne - 4 (Spiffeh, MagnaofIllusion, Sakura Hana, Rick and Andrea)
Voices of Truth - 4 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne, beeboy, Vifam)

Much better here. Gutfeels: Between Rem/Majiffy/Yoshi/Creature/Quartz/Vecna, there's either 2 or 3 scum. Rem/Yoshi/Creature stand out as strongest possibilities. Lean towards 2.
Between MoI/Rick/Marquis, there's either 1 or 2 scum. Lean two, though wouldn't be able to tell you which.

Creature - 2 (Rem and Ram, Majiffy)
Rem and Ram - 2 (BigYoshiFan, Creature)
Ser Arthur Dayne - 6 (Spiffeh, MagnaofIllusion, Sakura Hana, Rick and Andrea, Voices of Truth, Gorkington)
Voices of Truth - 4 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne, beeboy, Vifam)
Not Voting: kuror0, Steven Quartz, Vecna

Rem/Yoshi/Creature contains at least one scum, maybe two. Probably not three.
Marquis still probably scum.
On SAD, this is a pretty mixed bag wagon-wise, but there's probably at least one scum, possibly two. MoI/Rick in particular.

beeboy - 1 (Gorkington)
Rem and Ram - 1 (BigYoshiFan)
Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)
Ser Arthur Dayne - 1 (MagnaofIllusion)
Steven Quartz - 1 (Vecna)
Vecna - 2 (Vifam, Rick and Andrea)
Not Voting: kuror0, Steven Quartz
Creature - 4 (Rem and Ram, Majiffy, Voices of Truth, beeboy)
Voices of Truth - 4 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne, Creature, Sakura Hana)

First instinct was to call Yoshi/MoI both probably scum here, though it's possible only one is--gutfeels sincerely doubt both to be town though.
Rick also stands out as being a strong possibility of being scum.
But, there's also at least 1-2 probable scum in Rem/Marquis/Creature.

beeboy - 1 (Rick and Andrea)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (Vecna)
Rem and Ram - 1 (BigYoshiFan)
Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)
Not Voting: Ankamius, kuror0
Voices of Truth - 3 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne, Creature)
Creature - 4 (Rem and Ram, Majiffy, Voices of Truth, beeboy)
Vecna - 4 (Vifam, Sakura Hana, MagnaofIllusion, Gorkington)

There's a scum in Rick/Yoshi. Might only be one.
There's still at least 1-2 scum in Rem/MoI. Remainder's hard to tell.

Not Voting: kuror0
BigYoshiFan - 1 (Creature)
Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)
Vecna - 2 (Vifam, MagnaofIllusion)
Voices of Truth - 3 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne, Ankamius)
beeboy - 4 (Sakura Hana, Gorkington, Vecna, Rick and Andrea)
Creature - 5 (Rem and Ram, Majiffy, Voices of Truth, beeboy, BigYoshiFan)

Here Creature remains possible scum. Otherwise, scum distribution is hard to nail down.

BigYoshiFan - 1 (Creature)
Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)
Not Voting: mastina
Vecna - 2 (Vifam, MagnaofIllusion)
beeboy - 3 (Sakura Hana, Vecna, Rick and Andrea)
Voices of Truth - 3 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne, Ankamius)
Creature - 6 (Rem and Ram, Majiffy, Voices of Truth, beeboy, BigYoshiFan, Gorkington)

Creature remains possible scum.
In Rick/Marquis, there's a minimum of one scum, but possibly two.
In Rem/Yoshi, there's a minimum of one scum, but possibly two.

Followthrough for second-impressions next. There are certain trends that I can spot more easily after posting.

[mastina]

Spoiler: Vote Overlap

Rick/beeboy voted together (Gorkington)
Gorkington/Vifam voted together (Rick)
Marquis/SAD(/beeboy)(/Vifam) voted together (VoT)
Spiffeh/Vecna/Creature voted together (SAD)

Yoshi/Majiffy/VoT/Creature/Sakura voted together (Rem)

Rem/Gorkington/Majiffy voted together (Creature)

Spiffeh/MoI/Sakura/Rick(/VoT/Gorkington) voted together (SAD)
Vifam/Rick voted together (Vecna)
(Literally NO vote overlaps at this point--that is, two players voting on one wagon, later voting together on a second wagon.)
Rem/Majiffy/VoT/beeboy voted together (Creature)
(VoT with Majiffy is first vote overlap.)
Vifam/Sakura/MoI/Gorkington voted together (Vecna)
(Gorkington with Vifam; Gorkington/Sakura/MoI.)

Sakura/Gorkington/Vecna/Rick voted together (beeboy)
(Sakura/Gorkington, minus MoI; Gorkington with Rick.)
Rem/Majiffy/VoT/beeboy/Yoshi/Gorkington voted together (Creature)
(VoT with Majiffy as before; Gorkington with VoT; Yoshi/Majiffy/VoT.)

(Vote overlap may not be 100% accurate; I may have missed some and may have duplicates, but the basic idea here is to look for players who have voted together on multiple wagons.)

VoT/Majiffy/Gorkington/Vifam/Sakura/MoI/Rick/Yoshi have vote overlap.

In that group I'd expect half the scum: no more, no less.

Gutfeels would point me to MoI/Yoshi, but ironically enough, logically those two are two of the least-suspicious vote overlaps.

Speaking of gutfeels, their take on the game is if you put it together:

Spoiler: gutfeels summary

1 scum in Rem/Yoshi: once. (Plus one.)
1-2 scum in Rick/Marquis: twice. (Plus one.)
1-2 scum in Rick/Rem: once. (Rick/Rem appear twice.)
2-3 scum in Rem/Yoshi/Creature: once. (Rem appears three times; Yoshi twice.)
1-2 scum in Rem/Yoshi/Creature: add to above. (Rem appears four times; Yoshi three times; Creature twice.)
1-2 scum in MoI/Rick/Marquis: once. (Rick appears three times; Marquis appears twice.)
1-2 scum in MoI/Rick: once. (Plus above.) (Rick appears four times; MoI appears twice.)
Marquis is scum: once. (Marquis appears three times.)
1-2 scum in Yoshi/MoI: once. (Yoshi appears four times; MoI appears three times.)
1-2 scum in Rem/Marquis/Creature: once. (Rem appears five times; Marquis appears four times; Creature appears three times.)
1 scum in Rick/Yoshi: once. (Rick/Yoshi both appear five times.)
1-2 scum in Rem/MoI: once. (Rem appears six times; MoI appears four times.)
0-1 scum in Creature: once. (Creature appears four times.)
(Second Rick/Marquis boosts total up: Rick appears six times; Marquis appears five times.)
1-2 scum in Rem/Yoshi: once (plus two above). (Rem appears seven times; Yoshi appears six times.)

Final count:
Rem 7
Yoshi/Rick 6
Marquis 5
Creature/MoI 4

Rem/Yoshi impossible: once. (Plus one.)
Rick/Yoshi impossible: once.
Rem/Yoshi/Creature impossible: once.
Rick/Marquis/MoI impossible: once.
Rem/Marquis/Creature impossible: once.

Rem-Rick, Yoshi-Marquis, Yoshi-MoI, Rick-Creature, and Creature-MoI duos have nothing making them impossible.
However, there's no magical team which fits all the variables here, so the gutfeels won't be enough.

Consider this "points of interest", though. Rem, Yoshi, Rick, Marquis, Creature, and MoI are players of interest that I'll be eyeing on my readthrough.

So, unfortunately not very helpful initial VCA. There's no rock-solid smoking gun, here. There's educated guesses layered upon educated guesses, but a lot of those guesses are contradictory so that means that I'm going to actually need to read the game to get something solid, sorry.

(In short, don't sheep me.)

[mastina]

SAD shared with me the neighborhoods so: Gorkington/Rick voted together and share a neighborhood. Yoshi and VoT voted together (with Majiffy) and share a neighborhood (without Majiffy).



I honestly was expecting the totals to be higher of neighborhood cooperation, but there's virtually none. In fact, the votes are pretty much telling me fuckall about the game in terms of reliable data.

I'm like 90% sure that Antihero randomly distributed alignments (AND roles) across neighborhoods. As in, three-scum-could-share-a-neighborhood-even-if-there's-only-four-members, randomly. Or, literally-every-town-PR-in-one-neighborhood, randomly. If there's scum in each neighborhood, I think it's pure chance. If there isn't scum in a neighborhood, it could be any of them, so I don't think that we can setup spec from that.

That being said

. That being said, I'm not actually feeling scumvibes from my neighborhood and boy would that be a godsend if I could trust all four of them. Would make my job much easier.

Going purely off of neighborhoods other than mine:
Vecna's the towniest name in that neighborhood.
Vifam's probably the towniest name in that neighborhood. VoT would be second.
Ankamius is probably the towniest name in that neighborhood. That, or Gorkington.

So that'd place my focus mainly on MoI/Creature/Marquis/Rick/Majiffy/Rem/Yoshi. (Majiffy/Rick/MoI/Yoshi have vote overlap; Creature/Marquis/Rem do not.)

Just off of gutfeels of gutfeels of gutfeels, that'd make me look at two of Rick/MoI/Yoshi and two of Creature/Marquis/Rem.
From there, I'd prioritize Rick, one of Rem/Yoshi, and both MoI/Marquis as a first guess for a scumteam, but this is shitty analysis, I KNOW it is shitty analysis, I'm doing it to get something down, so this probably is all going out the window in a few hours, but for now:

Vote: BigYoshiFan

.
Probably the vote I feel best about, actually.
(Though again: don't you dare fucking sheep me; I'm not ready to be sheeped yet.)

[mastina]

Mastina, let me know what I should go back and read when you've caught up because just from what I've seen since I replaced in, reading all of it is a waste of time.

Things somewhat-important to note:

General thoughts: extreme lack of cohesion on wagons tends to strongly suggest we've mostly been wagoning town. The number of wagons and disappeared wagons is off the charts; there's no cohesion at all, so this is probably a scattered town.

(This is important.)

I honestly was expecting the totals to be higher of neighborhood cooperation, but there's virtually none. In fact, the votes are pretty much telling me fuckall about the game in terms of reliable data.

I'm like 90% sure that Antihero randomly distributed alignments (AND roles) across neighborhoods. As in, three-scum-could-share-a-neighborhood-even-if-there's-only-four-members, randomly. Or, literally-every-town-PR-in-one-neighborhood, randomly. If there's scum in each neighborhood, I think it's pure chance. If there isn't scum in a neighborhood, it could be any of them, so I don't think that we can setup spec from that.
[-snip-]
I'd prioritize Rick, one of Rem/Yoshi, and both MoI/Marquis as a first guess for a scumteam, but this is shitty analysis, I KNOW it is shitty analysis, I'm doing it to get something down, so this probably is all going out the window in a few hours.

The rest you can probably safely ignore.

[mastina]

Dododo!
VOTE: Vifam
obv.
-Rem

VOTE: beeboy
See ya guys D2.

Town.

VOTE: Vifam

I am the leader the of this town.
VOTE: Gorkington
~Rick, the Leader

Scum?

VOTE: Rick and Andrea
My way of saying hi!

VOTE: Voices of Truth

Scum.

[mastina]

Fair enough
VOTE: Gork

VOTE: Gork

Town.

[mastina]

And Vifam explain your votes!
-Rem (Ali)

talk to me Vifam, I value your opinion
why Spiffspiff, which posts

For these two right next to each other, guess:
-Indifference to both.
-Indifference to Rem.
-Indifference to Marquis.
-Scum to both.
-Town to both.
-Scum to Rem.
-Town to Rem.
-Scum to Marquis.
-Town to Marquis.

[mastina]

I think I am going to use my neighborhood topic as my official "notepad"

Not a bad idea!
Well I already had it anyway but not that it matters much--my thoughts get out here pretty well anyway.

[mastina]

Yoshi is town because I think scum would play more consciously than the way he proceeded on first page, plus I liked his other posts after.

No.

[mastina]

VOTE: ser Arthur

Town?

i hope this reaction to your wagon on me helps you sort me firebringer.

Town.

[mastina]

Vecna is town
Creature is town
Cheetory lean town
Voices by far my strongest scumread

Vote: Voices

I understand this post!
I understand it quite a lot!

[mastina]

titus might also be scum.

This is a distinct possibility.

Not the highest of probabilities, but it is a distinct possibility at the very least.

[mastina]

benefit of the doubt

And here I thought it meant badge of the day.

[mastina]

I'm curious what you can come up with for why town are so disjointed though. That's something I want to figure out now too.

In my experience, this is usually a result of nobody having a fucking clue who the scum are.

And honestly:

Given how many people are townreading names that I'm scumreading, and how many people are scumreading names that I'm townreading...
...I'd say that's probably a pretty damn good theory.

I'm still reading the game, but it's just like.
Most of the players I'm seeing pressured I townread (SAD/Spiffeh come to mind among others); most of the players being written off as town I scumread.

Namely, Marquis/Yoshi, but also to some extent Rick and maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe VoT.
Off of what I've read, my scumpool would be MoI/Marquis/Rick/VoT/Yoshi. (MoI hasn't posted yet by the point I'm at, but Vecna, Gorkington, Rem, Vifam, and my entire neighborhood have all given me strong reason to think they're town. That leaves Creature/Majiffy/You/MoI, but I have you and Creature as both north of null at the very least. Majiffy wasn't included because...gut? Emotions? Feelings? I just felt he shouldn't be whereas MoI should be.)

But I'm only to page 13 in my readthrough. This is what I've observed though.

[mastina]

Let me say something so that I can make more of a reach and continue to fake my scumread on you.

-Rem (Ali)

:goodposting:

[mastina]

VOTE: Rem and Ram
-Thinkbig

I mean, that's almost to levels, even knowing it's ThinkBig.
Frankly, if it were Titus, I'd be going

[mastina]

Cool to hear other neighborhoods are being used.

To be honest, general consensus from all members of our neighborhood was "fuck using neighborhoods, there's nothing we can say in here which we can't say in the game thread".

Incidentally I happen to be townreading every member of my neighborhood and this is no coincidence.

[mastina]

There is most likely one scum in each hood.

Holy
moly.

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep.

[mastina]

when you setup spec things like that you make little baby jesus cry.

Speaking as mafiascum's resident baby jesus, I can attest to this; you really do.

[mastina]

Rem and Ram - 5 (BigYoshiFan, Majiffy, Voices of Truth, Creature, Sakura Hana)
Voices of Truth - 3 (Marquis, Ser Arthur Dayne, beeboy)
Ser Arthur Dayne - 2 (Vecna, Spiffeh)
beeboy - 1 (Rick and Andrea)
Creature - 1 (Rem and Ram)
Rick and Andrea - 1 (Gorkington)
Sakura Hana - 1 (Vifam)

Not Voting: kuror0, MagnaofIllusion, Steven Quartz

Stopping here for the night.
With context, still say that Rick here is suspicious.
On VoT, Marquis is by far the worst vote.
The Rem wagon is actually pretty awful though--literally the best name there is Sakura, who was explicitly sheeping Majiffy.

[mastina]

Does Mastina do this artifical way of approaching the game more often?

No, but I am a replacement in a game with Firebringer AND MagnaofIllusion, both players who tend to take issue with me and would rather not have had me replace in--so it's treading on eggshells for me to try to be on my best behavior and yet still function as a player.

the way the slot is doing things is still feeling a bit detached, hopefully ill get a better taste of it when her commentary goes live.

Not detached--just, had trouble getting firm footing. But I think I have it now. My scum pool is still alarmingly large, but my townreads are literally everyone outside the scumpool, and that's well over half the playerlist, so.

I actually feel pretty good?
Like.
I feel like my reads are mostly right.
Maybe not my scumreads--I actually think this isn't a game where I win by naming who the scum are.
But my townreads. They all feel...

right

. They all feel firm. They all feel on-point. So I'm not detached. I mean, I'm scumhunting largely by POE at this point, and many of my reads rely on gutfeels, and just are things that I think are true but I haven't really checked to see if they're definitely true. But they're there?

So I don't really see what you need from me--the important stuff is already there. I mean, maybe a few specifics could use a little clarifying here and there and if my strongest scumreads hold firm then I'll need to get a little charisma carried up so that I can actually wagon a player likely to be scum. But otherwise, you have what you need.

I'm probably not bleeding town. Like. I know when I am really fucking town, and this game I don't think I'm that level of bleeds town. But. I'm still pretty sure that I'm townposting? I'm pretty sure it's easy to figure out I'm town this game. It's not really fucking obvious, it's not painfully obvious...but it still is pretty damn obvious even so? Like, if normally my obvtown was a 10, I'd still be at least a 7 this game.

[mastina]

lol mastina VCA towncleared Shadow (who was scum) at SU2.

You have a faulty memory--it actually did quite the opposite, condemning him.
It was my personal confirmation bias that cleared him; I was townreading the slot so I

ignored

the VCA. The VCA there told me "Shadow-RR is the scumteam", but I wrote that off as being impossible because I wasn't reading the gamestate that way, so.

Lesson learned!
I'm actually placing more appropriate levels of trust in my VCA--it's not a rocksolid "definitely names the scum 100% of the time" tool, that's true. But it does give me a pretty damn good idea of where to look for scum.

[mastina]

All
these
preflip
VCAs
WHYYY

They're a low-level VCA, don't worry. I don't put too much stock in this level of VCA--for me to get to my mid-level, or even high-level VCA, I require flips. (But I tend to be dead before I can actually do it and even if I live...it takes a lot of time and effort for me to do the highest form especially when the mod isn't posting VCs as fast as players are changing their votes.) They give me something to look at, and then from what I look at form a more conclusive opinion.

For instance, VCA had among its key figures of interest Rem--yet Rem's one of my strongest townreads.
VCA had among its key figures of interest Yoshi and Marquis--both are strong scumreads.
VCA had among key figure of interests Rick and MoI--both are on my radar, but not as strongly.
VCA didn't have VoT as a key figure of interest outside of VoT's vote overlap pattern--yet VoT is on my radar from reads.

So it's a good low-level tool, but it's not something I intend to use in a case to push someone. (Though, stay tuned for my guide on VCA where I clarify this further. I'm mostly done writing it, I just need to stop being a lazy ass and put the final finishing touches in.)

[mastina]

oh i just read your next post. the rules state the inventor stuff resolves at twilight though. i'm still not sure i'm expected to respond to this?

If you're wondering, by the way, if Nahdia's entrance made my scumread on Marquis go away: the answer is no. No, they did not.

[mastina]

Vecna, Creature, Vifam, Ser Arthur Dayne
Huh. No wonder this wagon smells so bad.

The only name there that so much as

could

be scum is Creature and even there I have my doubts, so.

[mastina]

I sorta wished mastina came with real reads and not VCA bullshit.

They're real enough.
VCA was less effective than I would prefer--but it still gave me some pointers.
I'm 18 pages into my readthrough of the game (plus some odd number of later pages), and some supported the VCA and some didn't but I've made more or less known my overall thoughts.

There's a grand total of seven players who so much as

could

be scum--MoI/Creature/Marquis/Rick/Majiffy/VoT/Yoshi; everyone else is town.
This, not even going into whether the players actually

are

scum. (For instance, you I heavily lean against.)

[mastina]

you really think creature making untrue statements about hiswagon being a Big Deal makes him scum?

This helps make me think Majiffy's not scum (which is something I really want resolved and am alarmed I don't have), and it gives me all sorts of faces in terms of Nahdia, though doesn't really help me in terms of Creature. Vaguely think this is scum white knighting town rather than scum defending a buddy, but that's basically a gun-to-head call.

[mastina]

VOTE: mastina

Fuck you too Gin.

[mastina]

(<3
But seriously. Come back when you realize who you're partnered with. <3)

[mastina]

How prone to manipulation do you feel your VCA approach is if people know how you do it?

Not very.
My VCA doesn't use rules--it uses feelings. Feelings are a little bit hard to deceive.
I don't make arbitrary assumptions, even though I may make some generalities off of what I perceive.

Plus, there's three things you have to factor in for my VCA:
One, I have unusual quirks in my VCA which nobody else who uses VCA thinks to use, and therefore the scum are only going to try and counter it if they know I'm in the game (and even then maybe not--see below).
Two, I didn't start in this game so the scum most definitely were not going to try and fool my VCA. VCA after I replace in is admittedly a bit more susceptible...assuming that the scum bothered, but they probably wont, because...
Three, in order to become immune to MY VCA, in order to completely fool my radar, scum have to act in ways highly detrimental to them, including making themselves more vulnerable to TRADITIONAL VCA because my VCA and traditional VCA tend to come to opposite conclusions (for instance, traditional VCA says "scum lynch look for those off it"; my VCA says "scum lynch look for the bussers". Traditional VCA says "town lynch, look for scum on wagon"; my VCA says "town lynch, look for scum OFF wagon") so fooling me requires making oneself vulnerable to traditional VCA.

[mastina]

Mastina are you caught up yet?

No, but this game takes a ridiculously long amount of time to read through and drains my stamina pretty quickly--if I focused on reading the game thread and not on staying up to date on more recent posting, it'd just be hellish.

[mastina]

she would have given me a full page report on the game because she's freaking out someone can read her like a book joined in.

That would require me to have actually read the thread.

My report on the game right now would be:
"...We've had talking. The talking hasn't been productive. We've had LOTS of talking. The talking continues to happen a lot. It also isn't showing signs of being productive. Words have been said. People have reads. Many people have clashing reads. That's about it".

Which I suppose from a certain point of view would be technically true?

[mastina]

GT, how DO you read Mastina as a book?

It's really not that hard. I win when scum not by keeping people from scumreading me--but by keeping people from lynching me even when they scumread me. For further details, refer to the flowchart.

Here, for your reading pleasure, might as well quote this.

I think everyone should make one of these. Especially mastin.

Actually...I have.

I've been meaning to post it, too. It's about a year out of date, though, but I started compiling a way around Mafia with the Quickness 2 called, "How to read Mastin: the flowchart".

Spoiler: Stuff about it

The flowchart, while half a year old in its latest version, still applies more than it doesn't, by the way.
I'll condense it down for you, though:
If Mastin is scum, accept the loss; she's going to win regardless of what you do. So treat her like town.
If Mastin is town, then she is town. Treat her as town. If she wants to be listened to, listen to her and trust her instincts. If she doesn't tell you to listen to her, take her words with a grain of salt; they're reads but not solid ones.
BAM.
You now know how to treat Mastin.
Will work out for you nearly every single game.

Summary. I think I realized my problem with Mastin. Her reads are changing very quickly and they're moving on a very, very wide scale.

Helpful hint, you have absolutely no reason to trust me on this right now, but this is a MASSIVE towntell for me. On the "how to read Mastin: the flowchart" I made (I need to track down the most up-to-date version), it's one of the primary items, in fact. The reason? Town Mastin doesn't have a clue what's going on. Her reads are in a state of constant flux, specifically because of that, and her own self-doubt, paranoia, and whatnot betrays her, as she constantly second-guesses herself and reevaluates, rethinks, and redoes stuff. In contrast, scuMastin has absolute control of the game. Whereas town-Mastin is defined by inconsistency, scuMastin is defined by consistent, solid, controlled, calculated play. She keeps the same reads as much as possible, because it serves to antagonize the least number of players. She is calm, collected, and cool. She is strategic. She is focused. Her thoughts are logical and precise, because she has a good handle on the game, and thus, her mind does not betray her.

Or in short, the difference between town and scum is the difference between chaos and order. Now, obviously, this isn't absolute. There have been towngames where I've felt in control, rare as they may be. There have been scumgames where I was chaotic, either by circumstances or in one or two cases me faking my town chaos convincingly. But it IS a fairly solid general guideline. I know what I'm doing as scum; I'm just taking my best guess and throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks as town.

I bet she has quite a few "playstyles" (and she knows, I think, why I'm saying this.)

Indeed I do. Fairly certain I said so already in this game, too, the reason why: because my play in games is fluid, thanks to situational awareness. While I might not know what's going on as town, I can generally feel out the game and have an idea for what will work best, adapting to have a playstyle specific to that game. It's mildly helpful, since it lets me hone in on scum better, but situational awareness mostly helps me as scum, because as scum, adapting my play to the game when I have more info than my town self does is

lethally

effective.

Though that does remind me, I need a point in there about focusing on scumhunting.

I find her posts coming from a mostly town point of view and she has a genuine interest in finding scum.

Right, that's another one I need to add in.

How To Read Mastin

:

Are you zMuffinman?

Yes-->Screw tells, you know mastin's alignment instantly.
No-->

Are you AngryPidgeon?

Yes-->Screw tells, you know mastin's alignment instantly.
No-->

Are you a player who has hydraed or has otherwise worked well with Mastin?

Yes-->You likely don't need the chart, but because you're not that familiar with her, you should probably go through it anyway as a precaution.
No-->You REALLY need to go through the chart; proceed! But fair warning in advance that it's only about 90% accurate.

Is/Are zMuffinman/AP in the game?

Yes-->Sheep them on their read! Never doubt it.
No-->Think like them and continue on.

THE FLOWCHART:

Is it D1?
Yes-->...And you're suspicious of Mastin?!?
She's town.
No-->Is it D2? Yes-->She's prob-town.
No-->Is it D3 or later? Yes-->Proceed.

Does Mastin look town?

No-->She's town.
Yes-->Proceed to next step.

Trust her as town.

What does she do?

Get paranoid of you-->She's town.
Enthusiastically work with you-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Nothing-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Milk your townread and bully you-->Proceed.

Suddenly pressure her.

What does she do?

Freak out-->She's town.
Show concern, but subdued-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Brush it off-->Proceed.

Is she posting up a storm?

Yes-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she gloating how good her scumgame is?

Yes-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Does Mastin have delusions of grandeur?

Yes-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she waffling...
...A lot?

Yes-->She's town.
Sorta?-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Does she look like she's trying to leave a legacy?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she antagonizing everyone?

Yes-->She's town.
No-->Proceed.

Has Mastin rambled at all on MD theory?

Yes-->She's town.
No-->Proceed.

Is Mastin making a case for why she could be scum?
Yes-->She's town.
Kinda?-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is Mastin making very strong reasons why she's town?
No-->She's town.
Kinda-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Yes-->Proceed.

If applicable, did she 'crumb her role and/or claim it openly and immediately?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Do the circumstances behind her play and/or claim look town?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she irrational?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she spewing random illogical theories?

Yes-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Does her posting look intentional?

No-->She's town.
Yes-->Proceed.

Is she spontaneous, random, and/or whimsical?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe?-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is her tone flat?

No-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Yes-->Proceed.

(BONUS:

If Mastin is behind, does she demonstrate knowledge of the

current

gamestate she could not reasonably have at her supposed point of reference?

No-->She's town.
It's hard to say...-->She probably does know, but not much, having likely skimmed offline, not logged in, and chose not to get the full context to spoiler her as probable-town.
Yes-->Proceed.)

And finally...

Is there minimal resistance to lynching her?

Yes-->She's town; defend her!
...Maybe?-->You've gotten this far and the best you've got is a "maybe"?!? You dummy, run through it again! (But she's probably town anyway.)-->All other factors equal, if you're having this much trouble reading Mastin, just freakin' assume she's town. (She likely is, anyway.)-->FOR THE LOVE OF GODS, SHE'S TOWN, DANG IT.
No-->She's probably scum...but you should run through the flowchart one more time just to be sure, as a precaution.

Is Mastin's posting wildly inconsistent?
Yes-->She's town.
Maybe?-->Probably town, but proceed anyway.
No-->Proceed.)

(Oh, and I think rambling in-thread's already there*, but if not, it should be.)
*Relies on scum having daychat. Scum have daychat, in-thread rambling = decent towntell. Scum don't have daychat, rambling = prob-null, maybe slight townlean. Scum daychat ambiguous, assume slight townlean.

(Oh, should be noted. Last scum, rambling in-thread gets upgraded to major towntell, since scuMastin typically keeps rambles to the scum QT about why she's screwed.)

Totally should just, in general, take this policy about me.
There's a flowchart that I plan to publish that will give better tells for reading me in general, some of which are timeless, others which are in contemporary site meta, but valuable all the same. Until it's actually published, though, the general policy I have on reading me is, increasingly, becoming:

Just assume I'm town until you have a REALLY solid reason not to. You'll be right the VAST majority of the time, by sheer probability alone.

(In fact, beyond probability. Probability says I should be scum a minimum of 25% of the time. 2014's been something like half that overall.)

It'll save you a BUNDLELOADS of headaches.

(Should be noted that my record was 34 games IN A ROW as town and my scumgame remains STILL below statistical probability in numbers.)

"If you're townreading Mastin, lynch her. She's scum, having successfully predicted your movements and is manipulating you. You fell into her trap, hook, line, and sinker.
If you're scumreading Mastin, she's town; save her from the lynch. She's probably either really onto something or really lost. In either case, she needs your help, either to sheep her or help her develop more accurate reads."

Some of them are out of date thanks to contextual meta shifts, but most of them still apply.

(Note of course that the flowchart is never 100% accurate. It's impossible, literally impossible, to display all of them in a single game since many of them are in fact slightly contradictory, but the point is to see as many as possible and if the majority matches town or scum. This chart has been in play for quite a while, now, and to this date, in spite of no active attempts to uphold it and some attempts as scum to subvert it, remains highly relevant to my play. It goes to prove my point, though: scuMastin always has this laser-like focus. Anything Goes in particular, until I faked having my confidence shattered, I was pushing for a specific lynch. In games like Resistance where I was the last living scum in lylo, I wove a narrative specific to one player being scum because I held focus. In my entire scumgame career, holding focus has done nothing but serve me well. Losing focus has done nothing but screw me over. Because guess what? People like focus. They like confidence. They love to see assurance in a read. They want to have a figure be charismatic and to follow. It's an inherent part of people's nature. That's why tunneling is so prevalent, because it works DAMN good and well to get a lynch. People hate doubt. When someone is calling everyone town/scum in rapid circles, AKA circlejerking, people think it's scum trying to mislynch anyone. They see desperation and attribute it to being scum. They don't see a town player desperately trying to figure out the game. They see a scum player that is trying to find options. So damn fucking straight. Maybe someday I'll flail as scum. It could in theory be this game. But in practice? Fuck no. As scum I'd push a lynch through; as town, here I am without a clue.)

(I really need to also add a section in there about explicitly blowing up.
I don't think I've ever thrown f-bombs around as scum freely, aside from some trolling in L4D when I literally claimed scum in-thread once I realized Molla had a guilty on me.
As town, you'll note, I go absolutely ballistic, and for damn fucking good reason. Lynching me has never done a town favors, ESPECIALLY not in the lategame.)

^That's how. ('Course, the flowchart was developed for single-ball games. I actually have no clue myself how well it does or doesn't hold up in multiball.)

(I just realized that an item not on the flowchart but which should be is how I explain my reads:
"Does she explain her reads in crystal clarity?
No-->Almost certainly town, though you can proceed as a precaution just in case.
...Maybe?-->Probably town, but proceed anyway.
Yes-->Proceed.")

Not included: "Is she doing anything?"
Yes-->Well, go read what she's doing, dummy!
No-->She's probably fighting a flake.

Doesn't tell you alignment, but is useful to have on there anyway.

Frankly this game is probably the closest game I've had all year to textbook traditional mastina play.

[mastina]

No, but I am a replacement in a game with Firebringer AND MagnaofIllusion, both players who tend to take issue with me and would rather not have had me replace in--so it's treading on eggshells for me to try to be on my best behavior and yet still function as a player.

There's a grand total of seven players who so much as could be scum--MoI/Creature/Marquis/Rick/Majiffy/VoT/Yoshi; everyone else is town.
This, not even going into whether the players actually are scum. (For instance, you I heavily lean against.)

Look – more mastin bullshit. Oh I’m worried about how Rick and Andrea / MoI will react to me so I’m being careful. Meanwhile both these players are in the pool of fucking 7 players who could only be scum. Yes that’s right … mastin has a pool that is 4/7 scum and is worried about offending two of the players in that fucking pool.

It is specifically

because

you are in the pool that I need to tread carefully, MoI.

If I was townreading you, there would be no issue. If you townread me and I townread you we could effectively leave it at that and ignore each other entirely. It's day one, so it's not like we'd be likely to ever need to work together, so no repeat of Steven Universe 2. No treading on eggshells, no special measures needed, because nothing I say matters/would be relevant to you, and likely vice-versa too.

...But because I'm

not

townreading you (though you apparently are townreading me), there IS the issue. Because I'm not townreading you, there's treading on eggshells because there's the whole awkwardness of the situation. It's unpleasant, but also my fault, and something that therefore warrants caution.

[mastina]

[quote="In post 2328, MagnaofIllusion"Your opinion - was my scum read and push that lynched him Day 2 unwarranted in your opinion?[/quote] My answer is of course yes given your push on my strongest fucking townread was one of the reasons I scumread you that game, so.

[mastina]

R&A hydra feels "uncomfortable" as Gork put it. The early "let's pressure gork!" thing felt forced, for lack of a better term. Townreading Gork a bit because they picked up on it as well.
Spiffeh leans town. BigYoshiFan is probably my biggest townread. Creature and Vecna feel sooooooorta off to me in their entrances, especially the former. Mixed vibes on Ser in particular.

[mastina]

Like where is this suddenly coming from

Not from me considering I specifically asked to not be sheeped.
(Though honestly in regards to Yoshi I probably wouldn't mind so much.)

[mastina]

mastina - 1 (TheRealGin-N-Tonic)
Rem and Ram - 1 (Gorkington)
Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)
Ser Arthur Dayne - 1 (MagnaofIllusion)
Vifam - 1 (Titus)
Not Voting: Nahdia
Ankamius - 2 (Ser Arthur Dayne, Creature)
BigYoshiFan - 2 (mastina, Ankamius)
MagnaofIllusion - 2 (Vecna, Vifam)
TheRealGin-N-Tonic - 2 (Sakura Hana, Rick and Andrea)
Creature - 3 (Rem and Ram, Majiffy, BigYoshiFan)

I maintain my stance from before: there's no wagons right now because scum are not being pushed. There's a severe lack of town cohesion--and that's the hallmark of the scum just sitting back and laughing their asses of as town after town gets pressured yet nothing forms on any scum because town are too busy screaming at each other.

In the 2 voters, Creature/Rick are the only ones I have any interest in calling scum. In the 1 voters, MoI/Titus/Nahdia all hold interest as scum candidates. I still maintain that Yoshi is scum, though to be honest if Yoshi is scum that probably means Majiffy's town. (Though not necessarily. Just probably.)

Basically while Creature's possible scum I am not optimistic there.

[mastina]

ok 35 pages in im bored of reading
VOTE: Rem and Ram

I mean I get being tired of reading--I'm having that big time, struggling to get through.
I get the "staring at the screen mind blank feeling", that I have.
But this?

[mastina]

[quote="In post 2433, Spiffeh"I wish someone in the game that I trust had strong opinions for me to sheep but that doesn't seem to be the case.[/quote] Well I'm someone you sort-of trust and I hold opinions which are getting there in strength so you could potentially sheep me, since my two strongest scumreads are in your null pile.

[mastina]

Must be a powerful scum PR
Busdriver? JOAT? Enabler? Strongman?

Having played in this game's two predecessors: the scum have a scum inventor with a power which is not a scumclaim yet which benefits the scumteam. Said scum inventor is

probably

their only role, though it's possible (albeit improbable) that Anti gave them a second WEAK role if the town has a number of PRs beyond the inventors. (And ONLY if the town has a number of PRs beyond the inventors.)

The town's main strength will come from inventors. Specifically, we're looking at probably 3 (maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe 4) town inventors, plus the scum inventor. What said inventors are, well, that changes game to game. In fact I don't think that there were any repeat inventions between Organic Chemistry and Inorganic Chemistry, though I'd have to check to be sure.

[mastina]

Majiffy, are we going to get in a VCA discussion this game? It's almost worth lurking to do that.

Probably. We can grab Mastina too if she gets her shit together.

You know what would help me get my shit together?

Not having to read ten new pages every fucking time I come to this thread, so that I have the time to actually read the fucking thread.

But yes, talking VCA would be fine, though honestly I'm releasing a guide really really soon on the subject anyway, so.

[mastina]

You know what would help me get my shit together? Not having to read ten new pages every fucking time I come to this thread, so that I have the time to actually read the fucking thread.

Like.
To go into more detail here.
I feel like I could actually get people here to mostly stop fighting.
I feel like I could actually maybe get people to be unified.
Like. In this game, there are THIRTEEN players I have experience with--not just a little, but quite a bit.
Like. That's almost the entire game. So not only should I have relatively accurate reads...
...But even if I didn't.
Even if I fucking sucked.
...I should be able to UNIFY those players because of them I know how to work with a minimum of nine--more than enough to get a lynch going.

I feel like I should be able to do so. I feel like I should be able to tell people: "Stop going after these players; you're being stupid to do so." I feel like I should be able to be doing that right now, to be getting them to work together and actually fucking unifying the town on a front to lynch a player who is actually scum.

But this game is draining my stamina faster than it by all rights should. I'm getting exhausted just trying to keep pace on the game--yet alone, make progress in it. I'm doing what I can, but sorry, I can't function at 100% in these conditions. Not yet anyway. Not until I can get my full fire back ignited.

[mastina]

Read this then vote Creature. TIA

I've read it.
My stance is that Creature is possible scum.
But that's the best you're getting from me for now.
I'll probably end up voting there for lack of better options, albeit grumpily thinking Creature has a high chance of flipping town compared to most players I would vote.

So it's not like I'm refusing to vote there.
I'm just...not liking the prospect of voting there.
He's possible scum, sure. But that's the best I can give you right now--a maybe. Sorry.

[mastina]

And why are you repeating it with me at best knowing my record in SU 2?

If there's bad blood between you and I, it would be news to me.
As a result, you're not someone I need to tread carefully with.

The feud with Firebringer and MoI is known, so them I do take caution with.

[mastina]

MASTINA
YOU HAVE AVOIDED ANY MEANINGFUL DIRECT INTERACTION WITH ME SINCE YOU REPLACED IN
STOP THAT

Sorry, but avoiding a direct confrontation with you would be best for the time being until I get a better grip on the gamestate--namely, on you.

I have a way to interaction with a scuMajiffy.
I have a way to interact with a Majiffy who is town.
I don't have a way to interact with Majiffy not in one of those two categories. Namely because it normally never happens even though it is right now.

[mastina]

She scum reads you dude

Not quite. Majiffy is in the POE pool for scum--but so too is his strongest push, Creature, which would not be a bus.
You're kind-of correct: Majiffy is someone I should be able to tell is town.
I am not able to tell he is town, which is disconcerting. Alarming, even. To the point where a lack of a townread is tempting to call a scumread.
...But, it's been a long time, I could use a refresher, and also, he's not the only player giving me trouble; MOST players in this game I've played with before and yet my reads on them are far weaker than they should be. As in, basically every single player. So he's not really a scumread. He's in the scum pool. He's someone I should have sorted. But I don't. Not yet anyway.

[mastina]

Mastina catches up in order. She's 300 posts behind. I mislynched her for it once.

Ironically enough I think that was the first game in the series, Organic Chemistry. I was the D1 mislynch there and I was behind and catching up when I was lynched without even knowing it. I believe that was one of the games which eventually led to me creating the flowchart because I was clear-as-day disengaged town.

[mastina]

She's not 300 posts behind she stopped on like page 18
She's doing this two-fer thing where she reads from the beginning and then from fuck knows where in the 2200s for whatever fucking reason

This is also true.
I am trying to stay up to date on the current gamestate, while ALSO reading the game from the start.
Right now the former has taken priority over the latter. Thus, these posts.

[mastina]

mastina, why do you scum read Jiffy?

I don't, except by virtue of a lack of a townread--on a player like Majiffy, that'd usually be enough.
But in this case I'm giving a huge amount of benefit of the doubt because I think the issue's with me and not with him.
I suppose another alarm bell is that I can't really think of where his reads intersect with mine. The closest we have to any whatsoever is me thinking Creature is potentially scum which he is the main proponent of, but other than that--his reads I recall being vastly different from my own and that's a little troubling.

[mastina]

I wish I could throw things at her.

I get shit thrown at me all the time, feel free to join in.

[mastina]

It never ceases to amaze me how frustrated people get working with mastina

And the people who get frustrated working with me never cease to be amazed at how people are able to work with me.

[mastina]

Holy shit Ankamius is the counterwagon to Creature.

Vote: Creature

.
I actually think Creature should be lynched regardless of whether he's town or scum now.

[mastina]

Seriously me/Maria/Spiffeh scumreading the slot should be more than enough evidence for you unless people think we're all scum.

Actually I am firmly of the opinion that Ankamius is town, yet being wagoned almost or entirely by town.

The name in question on the wagon is Creature.
And the Creature wagon is itself a question.

I want to know if we have dueling town wagons or a scum wagon and a town wagon, because it makes a difference for analysis. In particular, if Creature is town then my working assumption is scum didn't care which of Creature/Ankamius got lynched; if Creature is scum, then the lack of support behind the Ankamius counterwagon tells me that scum did not go out of their way to directly save him.

Thus, why I want to lynch Creature regardless of his alignment because it gives me information either way.

[mastina]

girl if you've got something to say, don't let your emoticons do the talking
VOTE: mastina

[mastina]

like mastina doesn't suck at the game, but this play style she is using is very very bad at reading people.

Not normally. There's a certain finesse to my style of reading people.

In a game filled to the brim with oldguard players, I am going to be godawful--I can read a gamestate where there's one or two of these types of players, but not a whole game's worth of them. I'm simply out of my element in that environment, know I'm out of my element, and can't really do much about being out of my element there aside from noting that yes I know I'm out of my element.

In a game filled to the brim with new or newish players, I am going to be pretty damn good--I'm not going to be 100% accurate, but I am going to be right on more than I am wrong. (The new style of play is much easier to read for me because it is far more organic.) Now, I'm probably not going to be good at getting people to follow me, because I'm not familiar with them so I don't know how to explain my style and why it works very well, but I still have that overall accuracy.

In a game filled to the brim with players I know (i.e., this game and similar), which is a typical game that has a mixture of both, I am going to be at my best--when I actually get the fucking chance to play. There will be blind spots. (For instance I am refusing to read certain players who I am just going to assume are town and if that's wrong so be it I'm just not going to give a damn in sorting them.) But for the most part...I know how to read the players. I also know how to get the players to listen to me.
I will not hold 100% accuracy--my accuracy will be lower than in a game full of newish players.
I will not hold 100% town leader status--my charisma will only take me so far.
But this is the game state where I hold the best balance of the two, which is one reason I'm frustrated that this game is taking me so long to fully get in to.

She isn't reading peoples posts and instead just makes judgement calls on how scum vote and reading between lines there.

People seem to make this assumption and I really don't get why. I made it as explicit as possible. Entering with VCA isn't entering with an intent to morph reads to fit the VCA. Entering with VCA is entering to lay down an initial idea, a theory, a

hypothesis

of sorts: "these players have a high chance of being scum".

Then I put my theory

to the test

and read posts. The posts either serve to show the hypothesis wrong, or indicate that it could be correct. I have been rather explicit that I have not finished this process. It's basic scientific method. Have data. Form a theory. Put that theory to the test. From the updated data, form a conclusion, leading to a new theory. Continue to put it to the test, repeat cycle through the game. I haven't finished so much as the first cycle--I had data. I formed a theory. I haven't finished putting the theory to the test, because I haven't fucking read the thread yet.

I really don't get how that's hard to understand.

[mastina]

The only think holding me back from solidly putting you in down as Town is the fact that you haven’t acknowledged that you always scum read me which you have admitted to publicly before as Town.

I mean I may not have made it explicit but I'm pretty sure my posts were rather implicit on this already so I didn't really feel the need to but consider it made explicit. Yes I do tend to hold you as a scumread. One reason among many that I tread carefully.

Because after Defcon and SU2 you thinking you are some grand unifying force that people would flock to is pretty absurd and makes me question how much this is just empty grandstanding meant to ape your “Town Mastin” persona.

In Defcon I made it explicit from the very fucking beginning. I said I was out of my element. I knew I was out of my element. I knew that I was going to perform poorly that game. I never once tried to be a town leader--not once. (Do point it out if you think otherwise.) Because I knew there was no point in it and even if there was, even if I could have gotten the support I didn't want it because I knew my reads were going to be shitty.

Of course, because I actually play the fucking games I am in, I had to give reads and do my best to follow them anyway. I fully expected to be wrong. I fully expected to not be accurate. I fully expected to JUSTIFIABLY BE IGNORED and aside from the SAD lynch I never once showed frustration at being ignored because I felt people were well within their rights to ignore me because I was flat-out fucking telling them to do so. I was as blatant as possible in saying, "I am not going to even bother to treat this game 100% seriously". But I also was as explicit as possible in saying "In spite of that I'm still going to be a player in this game, even if it'll be a shitty one".

In Steven Universe 2, I

did

unify the town. I unified the town in lynching SirCakez. I unified the town in lynching TheWayItEnds. (Yes I had a guilty and didn't lynch him the day of the guilty, but he claimed a confirmable role that would be used that night and I gave him the chance to confirm it. He did not.) And since you brought that game up (I wasn't going to) I'd like to remind you that had you fucking listened to me then we would have won the game THREE DAY PHASES SOONER than we did

and

your faction would have won as well because I was right in my read and right to try and unify the town again. (For that matter I also shut down the farside lynch and was

not

the leader of the Creature or kraska mislynches. While I participated in both, I was not leading either of them; I was explicitly sheeping someone else, maybe you maybe RR but it wasn't my drive.)

Of course I wasn't perfect in accuracy; I made mistakes. I made a mistake with Mathblade. I made a mistake with SnarkySnowman. I may not have been the driving factor behind kraska/Creature but by virtue of participating rather than resisting those lynches I was making a mistake there, too. I also made a mistake with Skybird. Fuck while the cause of this was Creature/kraska I can be extra generous and say I made a mistake with Shadow too in that I wrote him as the town in the Shadow-kraska fight rather than kraska.

But that game I NOT ONLY had overall decent pushes, BUT ALSO had decent followings behind them. I was right on more than I was wrong overall. I made more STRONG pushes which were right than were wrong. So yes. I can be a unifying force in a town. It requires the right circumstances, but it does happen. And often not without justification, as the RESULT of those strong pushes is more often than not a scum lynch because I tend not to make a strong push unless I have damn good justification for making said strong push.

Situational awareness is my thing.
In Defcon mafia I knew I'd be a shitty player no matter what. Shitty reads, and shitty pushes, so I never pushed strongly.
In Steven Universe I pushed strong reads I was confident in and didn't push reads I wasn't confident in.
In this game I can see the potential to be a town leader and the potential to be accurate. In this game I can see that I could hold good reads and I could get people to follow them...but I can also see that this potential (while existing) has not yet manifested--it's there as a

possibility

, even a plausibility, but it's not a reality, even though I really want it to be one. I lack the confidence, so I damn-well know better than to so much as try to push something strongly right now.

[mastina]

Holy shit Ankamius is the counterwagon to Creature.

Vote: Creature

.
I actually think Creature should be lynched regardless of whether he's town or scum now.

Explain how Ankamius wagon is bad even if he's the counterwagon to town.

It isn't! Rather explicitly, it's the opposite! The Ankamius wagon as a counterwagon to you is a

boatload

of information.

Now granted.

Post-my-vote, we glean less info than from pre-my-vote. But I don't need the later VCs when I had that one VC already there. If you are town, the wagon on Ankamius was on a player who is likely town and being pushed BY likely town--the lack of scum on it being because scum didn't care who got lynched. This tells me certain facts about the gamestate which right now are unknowns.

Admittedly this is a pre-read hypothesis--which is why I used the bold tag to vote you rather than the vote tag. I might change my mind when I have the full game in view with full context. But it's better than nothing right now.

[mastina]

Why is everyone scum reading my town reads

My question is not mainly this (though that too), but mostly, "Why is everyone townreading my scumreads?"

[mastina]

this seems to be a trend. of people just being fucking trash at me when i play. i'll just actually shut the fuck up.
and you can literally eat my shit d2 if he flips town you stupid fuck.

Gorkington you are actually being a beacon of reasonability in this thread and the people giving you shit can go fuck themselves because you don't deserve that kind of treatment. <3

[mastina]

Yeah mastina, if you're town, it feels like you're being easily manipulated.

Certain players are getting a free pass so if they'd be scum you'd be right but otherwise, not really no. It's hard to manipulate someone who's not properly engaging

anyone

.

(Also one reason I'm also okay with your lynch is because it'd finally get people to shut the fuck up forcefully, allowing me to read the game in silent peace--because I have a neighborhood, I could share my thoughts with them and in the unlikely scenario where I die overnight they'd share the relevant parts.)

[mastina]

For what it's worth the pages aren't entirely useless.
I continue to waver on Creature but hold him still slightly more likely town than not.
I'm getting at least reasonably comfortable with the idea of calling Majiffy town. It's been a long time since I've played with him, so I could be misremembering, but he's hitting all the right types of notes. (If I'm misremembering, it'd be that he's hit all the Majiffy notes which tell me it's Majiffy, basically. But I THINK these are Majiffy town notes.)

[mastina]

MagnaofIllusion - 1 (Vecna)
Ankamius - 2 (Spiffeh, Rick and Andrea)
Ser Arthur Dayne - 2 (MagnaofIllusion, Ankamius)
Not Voting: Gorkington, Vifam
Rem and Ram - 4 (Nahdia, Creature, Ser Arthur Dayne, Sakura Hana)
Creature - 6 (Rem and Ram, Majiffy, BigYoshiFan, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, mastina, Titus)

At this point I want to lynch Creature to test out the hypothesis but I just...REALLY don't think there's any possible vote distribution which could make it any clearer that all the main wagons today have been on town.

Creature is likely town.
Rem and Ram is town.
SAD is town, Ankamius is town, the people Not Voting are town, so scum are basically scattered about and don't give a damn who gets lynched because it sure as fuck isn't going to be one of them.

That being said, if my theory is wrong Creature would be the point I'd be most likely wrong about, so that's why Creature > otherwagons.

[mastina]

Gorkington
Rem and Ram
Vifam
Ankamius
Sakura Hana
Vecna
Ser Arthur Dayne
Spiffeh
TheRealGin-N-Tonic
Majiffy
Creature
MagnaofIllusion
Rick and Andrea
Titus
BigYoshiFan
Nahdia

This is about where I am reads-wise right now.

[mastina]

mastina why must u be so wrong

Because naming the entire scumteam when the playerlist is filled to the brim with skilled players on D1 is rather difficult and all I can do is try to get as many as I can.

[mastina]

Someone be online around 6 hours from now so I have someone to talk too after my nap

Reporting for duty, though frankly we could probably save the thread spam for the PT since I doubt we'd have much to say to each other out here which is really...well, content.

[mastina]

ur embarrassing yourself nahida.

Yeah, Majiffy is many things. Kawaii not among them.

[mastina]

Like the fact that no one has ever bothered to ask, "Hey why is everything so focused on Creature" through these last like 60 pages is amazing to me and just makes me feel stronger in my townread

In a sense, I did--by noting how much lack of cohesion there was and why that meant town were being wagoned.

Still stand by that assessment, ESPECIALLY with the Rem counterwagon.

[mastina]

I'm surprised SAD is dead actually

I'm not. He was the obvious choice for a myriad of reasons. Among them, his accuracy.

However, in spite of me saying that, in spite of me saying he was accurate, I'm going to slightly defy his last will. Rem is almost assuredly town. While I

could

lynch MoI today, what I

REALLY

want to do is this:
VOTE: Ankamius.

I'll work on explaining a full list of reasons later.
But suffice to say: Ankamius is one of my top suspects, was one of SAD's top suspects, and there's plenty behind this backing it.

[mastina]

I'm very interested in hearing your reasoning, because you're one of the few people in this game I expect to have good accuracy in reading me.

I'll admit. I'm rusty, so I haven't gone back to verify this for sure. But there's some pretty compelling evidence that you're probably scum, and it's plausible from your play. I was attributing slightly town behavior to one aspect of your play...but I think it was a mistake for me to have done so. My answer may change when I do that detailed research (I intend to), but as of now, you'd probably be my strongest scumread.

[mastina]

This post is disturbingly wrong.
I did initially post saying Gin was likely to flip town. I never once said that Gin was bussed. That's literally what

you

said in the middle of my analysis. My point on Vecna was that he was most likely to be the scumread I was wrong on. I never once said anything aboit MoI.
I only started defending myself after MariaR pretty blatantly tried to stop us from communicating from each other after I started dumping my thoughts in the neighborhood.

Actually I think this post is a scumclaim from Ankamius, thanks to a scumtell in this post which is basically always right, if I'm remembering the tell correctly. I won't highlight which part is the literal scumclaim, but I'm pretty sure that this is something Ankamius only says as scum. I'll verify as soon as I can.

[mastina]

Your interactions towards me always indicated a stronger read than "slightly town." What exactly was your read and why?

No my read was rather clearly slightly town, but that's changed.

Brief overlook loosely indicated that I'll need to read more to get a better read on you for what it's worth--it wasn't decisively one thing or another off of the research I did. Though, from what I have done...I'd say you're still scum; will review in a bit.

[mastina]

Your interactions towards me always indicated a stronger read than "slightly town." What exactly was your read and why?

No my read was rather clearly slightly town, but that's changed.

Brief overlook loosely indicated that I'll need to read more to get a better read on you for what it's worth--it wasn't decisively one thing or another off of the research I did. Though, from what I have done...I'd say you're still scum; will review in a bit.

[mastina]

Your interactions towards me always indicated a stronger read than "slightly town." What exactly was your read and why?

No my read was rather clearly slightly town, but that's changed.

Brief overlook loosely indicated that I'll need to read more to get a better read on you for what it's worth--it wasn't decisively one thing or another off of the research I did. Though, from what I have done...I'd say you're still scum; will review in a bit.

[mastina]

Holy fucking shit I isoed Ankamius and yeah she's scum.
Like.
I'm almost positive of this, for a multitude of reasons.
Scum positioning, scum posting, just general gut reaction to her posting, her attitude, what she's doing, critically what she's NOT doing, who she's pushing or rather who she's NOT pushing, all of it. She's scum.

[mastina]

Are you going to post any of those reasons?

Not unless I can't strongarm your lynch through without doing so.

[mastina]

If this is confirmed town, then scum heavily bussed Gin at the front.

No, and I'll tell you why in a few select steps.
One, Gin was tied for their strongest role--the scum have one other strong role (their scum inventor, and I have a fair idea what type of power the scum have), yes, but Gin was definitely one of their strongest roles.
Two, there were viable counterwagons to Gin which could have gone through--namely, Creature, but also wagons like Ankamius. (Though I'll have more on that to say later--incredibly tempting to just copy-paste my neighborhood posts into here but I'm momentarily refraining from doing so because I'm looking for something extremely specific.)
Three, wagon composition and nature: the wagon couldn't possibly hold more than two scum on it, and even that number is doubtful. Oh and those two scum? CERTAINLY not in the front OR the back, because Creature is 100% town and SAD obviously was town, so you're looking more towards the middle of the wagon for scum. Not at either end. (Basically, in the middle six.) I'll go into more detail about

this

point, too, but for the moment I'll say:
Four, the Gin wagon was almost exactly a dead-on reflection of the SirCakez wagon in Steven Universe 2. Up to and including my conclusion that there is EXACTLY one scum on the wagon, no more yet also no less. Literally the numbers are identical lynch-wise. The lynchwagon, a small (very small) counterwagon, and then scattered throughout were players not voting. This is where most of the scum can be found.

[mastina]

MoI is town. Sorry.

Believe it or not, I believe you!

...You would rather wish I didn't!

[mastina]

Also Ankamius and Titus reasoning here is dodgy as fuck.

Yes.
Yes, they are.
But a Titus-MoI team isn't viable for multiple reasons, so.
Trust me and vote Ankamius?

I know that MoI is a tempting wagon. It's all shiny, even. A shining beacon of "LYNCH THIS NAO".
I will consent there is a SIGNIFICANTLY higher than random chance that Magna is scum.
I just don't think he actually is!

This, for a combination of reasons. Among them, SAD's reads, SAD's death, SAD's reasoning, my own reads, and my own reasoning.

[mastina]

see, titus. the issue is that vifam is town this game. and then theres also that im town this game.

And what do you think that says about Titus's alignment?

i dont really think i believe ank's "strategy". or at the very least i have absolutely no idea what she was trying to do with it. and spiff is right that if you look at the magnitude and other aspects of her reaction to the moi/gin wagons, you get more of a feeling of outrage with the former and more of a feeling of hesitance with the latter. former flipped town. difference there probably means something.

^Partially this, but so much more than it, too.

[mastina]

you didnt drive gin. vifam did. stop pretending otherwise.

Also Sakura did. Quite strongly so, in fact. Start to finish. As in, from when Gin was bee, Sakura was driving the slot, prior to literally every player.
Spiffeh and SAD are also not without credit there.

Titus did fuckall to drive and this is literally her stealing Reasonably Rational's ploy as her own. Like. It's an exact fucking replica, the only difference being that Titus didn't unvote then revote like RR did.

[mastina]

R&R/Ank are still likely scum as well though.

Ankamius is, Rem isn't. Trust me on this.

[mastina]

people that are town according to me:

Vifam, Gorkington, Sakura, Titus

people i still kinda think are town but less confident:

MagnaofIllusion, Creature

people i thought were town but im now less certain of:

Spiffeh, BigYoshiFan

people idrk fam:

Majiffy

people i thought was scum but im now less certain of:

Rick and Andrea

people that leaves:

Vecna, mastina, Ankamius

...people my pride refuses to acknowledge the existence of for now:

Rem and Ram

So vote Ankamius. I'm not getting lynched once I explain the happenings of the neighborhood. (I'm waiting for the green light from Spiffeh to do so--basically, there is a REALLY FUCKING IMPORTANT thing that our neighborhood knows that the rest of the game doesn't, but it's something scum probably also have awareness of and it changes literally everything.)

[mastina]

highest priority sorts are probably ank, vecna and byf atm.

Vecna is not

rock-solid

town, but is reasonably strong town. Among other reasons, look at the wagon at 1755. Look at how the bee wagon appears from nowhere, and how the Creature wagon gains momentum in response.

In contrast, Ankamius is scum for a very fucking huge variety of reasons. Yoshi is also scum, albeit not quite as strongly, especially when you do analysis assuming fairly safely that Rem is town. This gets even stronger if you assume Rick is town. (Rick being town means that in places where there is likely one scum but no more, that the scum is exponentially more likely to be Yoshi, among other reasons.)

[mastina]

i think a few of my reads are wrong..

Yes. They are. I thought your reads came from pure scum, but you're probably town, who just isn't solidly established reads-wise.
I say this mostly because while I would be so fucking vindicated if Nahdia were scum, and they remain a scumread of mine, they just aren't viable on most scumteams. A few exist which are theoretically possible, but there's basically none which are probable, so while the scumread didn't go away...there's simply no realistic way for it to be accurate.

[mastina]

Also I wanna hear a justification from Mastina

Coming as soon as I get the green light from Spiffeh.

[mastina]

Unless you think Scum!Gin joins a game where he is getting pushed and decides to hard buddy a scum buddy, i am very sure he was trying to pocket mastina.

Actually, Gin would do that as scum. However, Gin was in fact going to try and pocket me--it wouldn't have worked, mind you. I wasn't calling to defend Gin indefinitely. I was calling for one day, for a combination of reasons: let Gin either sort real-life out or replace out, and then if Gin was still in the game, let Gin give me the content I wanted from the slot.

bee had almost no content.
Gin had almost no content.
I wanted content from the slot, so that I could both read it AND get something useful from it if the slot did indeed turn out to be scum. Basically, Gin is the type of player who would NOT be able to fool me, and even if Gin could fool me...to do so, Gin would have to basically hand me the rest of the scumteam on a silver platter. If Gin did not do so, if Gin's reads intentionally directed me away from the scumteam, it would have told me that Gin was scum. But since we lynched Gin BEFORE that could happen, the slot's contribution to the game is fairly minimal; not much useful can be made of it. Not much useful from bee, not much useful from Gin, which was my entire fucking point. (Well not entire, but largest part.)

[mastina]

She voted Creature because it was the "counter wagon to Ank".

Yes and at the time I thought a Creature lynch was more valuable for establishing who was town and who wasn't town than vice-versa.

Day 2 comes knocking and suddenly Ank is a major suspect.

Yes. For damn-good reason. In particular: knowing Gin was scum (when I was working throughout D1 assuming my neighborhood was entirely town) AND knowing that Creature is town fundamentally shifted the nature of my reads and evidence, because between those two things, literally the whole game changed.

She's phoning this game in.

Yeah bullshit. You have no right to tell me this when you know DAMN fucking good and well how much trouble I have keeping up with games which move this fast especially as a fucking replacement who had literally dozens of pages to read when replacing in yet THAT MANY PAGES WERE BEING PRODUCED DAILY.

Her biggest scumread, Nahdia.

Nahdia was the largest yesterday sure enough but that was mostly based off of what I saw from Marquis, what I saw from Nahdia, and also faulty analysis which didn't take into account Creature being town or Gin being scum...which again, once known, changed variables such that while Nahdia still looks like a fucking scumbag, there's literally no team which they fit in realistically.

She's had plenty of VCA based analysis, which is shit on Day 1.

VCA is one of the fastest, easiest ways to get into the game quickly. It is not the end-all, be-all of tools...but it's pretty reliable at catching a fair amount. I admit I haven't read the thread in its entirety. Most of the game prior to my replace-in is unknown to me. I frankly skipped most of the content on D1 after my last post, except the last few pages of the day. But at this stage in this game with this fucking many pages, I've read about half of the game. (First 18, about 45 pages post-replace-in on D1, and all the pages on D2, comes out to be nearly 75 pages in a game which is slightly over 150--a little under, but not by much.) My analysis is not just from VCA. The VCA was the starting point, and remains a heavy selling point. It is not the only point.

[mastina]

Yeah and her not talking about other scum reads is bad.

Yesterday, I had none.
Nahdia was my only scumread.
Yoshi was a kind-of scumread. But not a really real scumread, just a sort-of scumread.
Titus was a "POE scumread but not really scum for anything other than it" scumread.
And I knew I was one short even if I assumed that those three were scum when I was incredibly uncomfortable with this assumption. (Neighborhood can confirm this sentiment, which I deliberately was holding back from sharing at the time.)

Today, I am near-100% positive Ankamius is scum.
Titus has a VERY high probability for being scum, and for actual reasons now rather than just POE. (SAD thought there was one scum in MoI/Titus for damn good reason, a conclusion I too shared and made no secret of, but while I'm not absolutely sure I think he got which one wrong.)
Yoshi has an EVEN HIGHER probability for being scum, especially when assuming you're town and ESPECIALLY given that Rem is town. (SAD thought there was one scum in Rem/Yoshi for damn good reason, and that was an opinion I made absolutely no secret I too shared.)
And that scumteam? Absolutely, 100% perfectly and entirely viable, fitting the data literally better than any other combination I could crunch, once Rem was confirmed as town. (Rem appeared in a metric fuckton of possible viable scumteam combos.)

Admittedly: no scumteam matches the data 100%. There are always the small imperfections which keep this from being absolutely reliable. But you'll never find a game where the scumteam WILL match the data 100%. Just...that the scumteam fit the data better than any other wrong combination would.

[mastina]

i did point out during day 1 that mastina was particularly lackluster seeming.

I also made it no fucking secret my absolute detest at the speed the game was moving, the number of posts that were being faster than I could read the game, and that most critically I was fucking busy and dealing with a lot of shit. (Among it, supporting Gin.)

Really. I can read 20 pages a day. Maybe 30. That's it. That's all I have the stamina for. I literally can't do more than that. And that's under

optimal conditions

. Under optimal conditions, that's how much I can read. Literally it. I don't have it in me to read more. I just don't.

When you're producing 15+ pages a day, and I'm a replacement who HASN'T FUCKING READ THE GAME, what the fuck could you realistically expect? The only reason I'm starting to push more heavily now is because while I may lack the context of literally half the game, I have the context for the other half in addition to some incredibly strong analysis given the conditions I'm working under. (Basically the Gin lynch was way too soon but I have still managed to make the most of it anyway in spite of the issues there.)

[mastina]

was there any conversation between them there as well???

No. Because you fucking lynched Gin before Gin could do so. (Yes I know Gin was scum, no that doesn't change that I'm fucking pissed off about it because I was rather deliberately trying to fish Gin for more and lynching Gin prevented that from happening altogether.)

Gin posted in there twice. Once, to say that Gin wasn't going to trust the neighborhood as all-town in spite of me specifically asking Gin to do so. The second time, to cast shade at Spiffeh and Sakura. I don't know how much Anti is a stickler for timestamps, but I should be able to say both on March 7th--The first was immediately after 2294. The second immediately after 2541. Do the math yourself to get an idea of when Gin said those.

[mastina]

I also thought Titus was fairly Town yesterday and don’t think she’s bother trying to derail my wagon today if she was scum. My mislynch is a gift for her if she is scum and no reason for her to expend energy fighting it as strenuously.

White knighting a mislynch (the stronger the player, the better! And also, the stronger the wagon momentum, the better), while not actually making much effort to stop it, is Titus's scum MO.

Look at what she's actually doing to fight your wagon.
She's saying you're town. She's giving weak reasons for it. She's not actually trying to stop your wagon, and she's providing no viable alternative.

[mastina]

Mastin I hear you're doing work let me sheep you until I can actually read everything

Okay. Vote Ankamius. Trust me, you won't regret it.

[mastina]

Do you have any comments on why you were blackmailing people.

For what it's worth this really sounds like scum who already know what I was using to blackmail my neighborhood. (The blackmail post referenced posts as far back as bee's tenure in the slot, and was made well before Gin left. It was actually only picked up by SAD et. all significantly after I had made it if I recall correctly. Would need to verify though.)

[mastina]

Also, it's definitely definitely a really bad idea but I'm starting to look at the neighborhood makeup think about who in each group is most likely to be red. I know there's no guarantee it's 1 scum per hood but still looks interesting from that perspective.

There's probably no scum in your neighborhood and two in the VoTitus/Yoshi/Rem/Vifam neighborhood, though again I stick by that being purely random and simply what the dice told Anti to do, not being a deliberate design. With Vifam and Rem both having VERY fucking strong reasons to be town......

[mastina]

Specifically:

MoI, Vecna, Creature, Marquis
Firebringer, (imputed to include Majiffy, Stephen Q, Gorkington)
VoT, Rem and Ram, BigYoshiFan, Vifam

Rem is town. Vifam is town. The possible scum in there are VoTitus and Yoshi.
Gorkington is town. Rick is reasonably solid town. The possible scum in there are Majiffy (lol?) and Ankamius.
Creature is town. Vecna is fairly solidly town. The possible scum in there are MoI or Nahdia. In both instances, a team including either of them simply has trouble existing at all.

[mastina]

Voting Gin was my idea. I rallied the votes. I had Creature v RR as a shit fight.

If you were town you would have been on the Gin wagon much sooner than you joined. You were pursuing largely useless wagons prior to that point. Like dead fucking serious, this is deja vu.

[mastina]

guys i daykilled gin d1. where is my fucking towncred. you fucking clowns.

Which again is straight out of RR's playbook. I'm dead serious here.
Titus is RR.
MoI is probably Mathblade. Or maybe some other mislynch we had that game, but probably Mathblade because I remember Mathblade's accuracy being lower than SnarkySnowman's, Creature's, kraska's, or Fuzzy's accuracies.
Much as I hate to admit it this would make me the farside of the game, but that's not something I necessarily see as terrible given farside was dead on the money in regards to RR being scum.

[mastina]

mastina what are your thoughts on gorkington rn

Absolute top townread of top townreads and one of the few players I trust to carry the game and probably top nightkill material because he is obvtown (painfully so), he is at least reasonably charismatic (he is definitely reasonable this game and raising many valid points even if they aren't all accurate), and he's getting better and better reads-wise so more than any other player he's a triple-threat.

Like. I lost a lot of my standing, so the most I can muster is two of the three. (I can become obvtown, I can be accurate. I cannot convince people on my own; I need allies to rally behind my call.) But Gorkington was the only other player aside from SAD I could see being nightkilled N1. (SAD being the

other

player who had the triple-threat. Obvtown, definitely. Charismatic, reasonably. Accurate, almost certainly.) Pushing Gorkington is basically a scumclaim. (See also, Titus pushing Gorkington.)

[mastina]

If gin had no content, why were you town reading him and trying to blackmail in the PT to make sure his lynch didn't happen?

Aside from having a

very slight

gut-townread on bee (which Gin actually was destroying, mind you!), I didn't have a townread. That's the whole fucking point. I was blindly treating my neighborhood as a masonry for the day in order to very specifically generate content of a very specific kind--to get a firmer footing on everything. The members of the neighborhood and whether they were town/scum, and also, how they treated others. My very first posts in the neighborhood were saying as much: "I advise we treat this as a masonry, at least for one day". Gin didn't treat anyone to anything this game; bee did very little treating to very few people this game. It was effectively a lynch on a slot which was low-content. (I'd say lurker-lynch but the slots weren't lurking. Well maybe bee was, don't actually know that, but Gin sure wasn't.)

[mastina]

wait, are you mad we lynched scum?

Yes I am mad you lynched scum. You lynched scum too fucking soon. Tell me: what valuable information FROM THE SLOT ITSELF can you offer as insight for the thread?

...

...Yeah, not much there, now, is there?

My point exactly.
You can get valuable information from how OTHERS treated the slot, and the situations SURROUNDING the slot. But a full fucking third of the ideal scum lynch is missing because it happened too fucking soon. Gin is a close friend. I was specifically fucking waiting for Gin to be playing the game, or for Gin to replace out of the game and have a new slot enter in Gin's place. If Gin had stayed and generated content, I would be able to tell if Gin were town or scum. WHEN (not if) I determined that, I would be able to analyze Gin's content posts to nail the full fucking scumteam. But no! You didn't give me that. So while I do have how others treated the slot and the situation surrounding the slot (the latter in particular), I don't have the full fucking picture because you fucking ignored me when I told you to not fucking lynch the slot.

[mastina]

she's mad you lynched scum before said scum could give away the rest of their team.

This. Because like I said: I could fucking read Gin. The very very very very very weak townread I had on bee was actually FADING because of how Gin was entering the game. I gave Gin a slight pass, because: I knew he was a replacement and may be playing slightly differently; I knew the things bothering me weren't absolute signs of Gin being scum; I later knew Gin was going through an incredibly tough real-life situation. Given those factors, it wasn't absolute. But EVEN OFF OF WHAT LITTLE GIN GAVE ME, I was beginning to have an accurate read there.

I mean. When the wagon went through on Gin in spite of me specifically fucking telling people to NOT do that. I thought that meant Gin was a mislynch. It literally went (and this Sakura/Spiffeh can verify), "I don't have a read on Gin, but FUCKING WAIT BEFORE LYNCHING GIN one fucking day"-->"Uh, mastina...Gin was lynched"-->"Fuck you, Gin was town then". But only because of specifically the lynch wagon forming when I didn't want it to, like that. (

Sakura/Spiffeh:

Mostly referring to the progression you can see in 53, backed by 55 where I said I knew my reads above Titus weren't scum...listing Majiffy/Creature/MoI as unlikely scum, and I meant to include Rick in there as well. That list ENDED at TheRealGin-N-Tonic who was excluded...for damn fucking good reason. That goes to 57, blackmail, where I laid out why I wanted Gin alive, to test the slot. Then all my posts immediately following, explaining that. I rather explicitly said Gin wasn't in my town pile, but also not in my scum pile, down to null from the prior nulltown bee held. Then I just went "fuck it, Gin's town because you assholes lynch Gin" basically, but you knew that already. SAD literally pointed out I gained a townread on the slot explicitly

just

because of the lynch, something I confirmed laden with profanity and caps lock.)

Butstill. That was only because of the lynch itself; off of actual play, Gin was going southward in my reads. (Incidentally this is another reason I am pissed at the lack of wait: circumstances can be wrong. Play content is a more reliable, accurate indicator. And you fucking lynched Gin before Gin could give that info to me.)

[mastina]

Gins ISO actually says a lot about Mastin imo.

Yeah but the funny thing about that is I don't need to get a read on mastina, now, do I?

I need to get reads on the ENTIRE FUCKING REST of the playerlist, and Gin's iso there is pretty empty, no?

Dare you to say I'm wrong there, that Gin's iso provides valuable insight into a non-mastina player. Because the whole fucking issue I had was that Gin hadn't given ME anything useful. And that's fucking true, period, no matter what.

[mastina]

im actually thinking titus might be scum again. i just remembered beeboy's titusread after he pushed her a bunch:

Voices of Truth - I don't like how the TB slot is literally MIA but seeing Titus under pressure is making me think she is town and she has dropped the entire buddying thing.

kind of feel like the push there was supposed to be showy distancing and the subsequent change in focus happened as soon as titus wasnt in the spotlight anymore. theres also that titus doesnt react a single time to one of beeboy's posts calling her scum. i really think thats just kind of out of character for how she tends to react to being pushed. she just kind of calls him scum over and over and over again with no reasoning there.

And that, my friends, is why the only thing stopping the scum from killing Gorkington tonight is they have to deal with the watcher-inventor first.

[mastina]

my lynchpool for today atm is
{Vecna, Ankamius, BigYoshiFan}

Vecna is, again, probably town. Ankamius is scum, and Yoshi probably is, too.

[mastina]

I assumed my hood was all town but had zero problem blackmailing them).

Yes.
I have a VERY strong record of treating my neighborhoods like masonries: camn's revenge. (Admittedly I was a neighborizer gambitting, butstill.) SMITE Mafia. Invisible Inc. (WHERE YOU WERE MY FUCKING NEIGHBOR AND YOU KNOW BETTER THAN ANYONE ELSE I WAS TREATING YOU AS IF WE WERE CONFTOWN TO EACH OTHER.) Micro 336. Mafia Discussion. It is a very well-known, very public thing about me. I treat my neighborhoods like masonries. This does not preclude me from using bribery or blackmail to force them to do something.

[mastina]

Im here wondering how can anyone be scumreading vifam.

[mastina]

I was trying to emulate my PR-town play in order to draw a night kill since I figured out pretty quickly that there's a lot of 'leader' types and we really don't need another one.

Yeah this is bullshit.

I did see you doing the crumbs. That's one of the main fucking reasons I'm scumreading you though, is specifically because of them. So while you were in fact trying to emulate your town PR play this reason is absolute shit.

[mastina]

who am i

Either SnarkySnowman or Creature, in that you're a player who isn't terrible but is mislynch bait who isn't really influential in the game that we'll probably mislynch somewhere down the line and after doing so at a later point in the game when we read your iso and in hindsight we wonder how the fuck we could have ever not realized you were town.

[mastina]

Yeah, Gork is town now. Mastina is buddying hard core. Gork to lock town.

I wonder who's the one that's buddying

[mastina]

Mastina are you alright? Like everything going okay in real life and stuff?

Never a good question to ask. You might actually receive an answer. Not something you want me to go on about. I had a VERY FUCKING LONG weekend. I have had a shitton of things going wrong for me lately. I am absolutely pissed off at a whole group of people in real life because of their despicable actions (basically they lied on every possible level in an absolute breach of conduct that was a betrayal and hurt bad especially given that them doing this was opening up an old wound), that aside from living with my dad (and the unpleasantness of that) and all the crap I have on my plate right now.

I'm also frustratingly becoming disturbingly close to being a kuribo clone,

and I fucking KNOW I am

, which makes it all the worse because even fucking kuribo hates how he played and knows just how considerably unhealthy it was. Also this game went into day before I could actually read the damn thing because I was V/LA overnight, meaning that my stances (while I feel they are accurate) are weaker than they fucking should be.

If I had read the entire game, I would be able to state as much, state that my stances don't make assumptions, that my stances are grounded firmly 100% in reality, but because I was denied that by virtue of being so heavily V/LA, now I have to deal with shitty accusations that my stances

aren't

grounded in reality and I am in no fucking mood for that. I'm just sick of people doubting me.

[mastina]

So... I'm being scumread by some on the premise that there's likely at least one scum in my neighborhood and that everyone else in my neighborhood is likely town? Not trying to discredit it at all, I just want to understand.

Interesting theory you've got there.

[mastina]

Titus sounds hella town in the neighborhood.

My stance there should ALSO be fairly well-known. (Yes I know that

right now

, I am benefitting from this as well because a considerable number of the reasons I am town are CURRENTLY in the neighborhood, but I fully intend to bring them ALL out 100% once I get the green light from Spiffeh to do so. Butstill. Fuck "town for neighborhood shit".)

[mastina]

Okay then, genius. Why would I try to emulate a style that blatantly isn't my usual town style instead of just riding the fact that the town is a clusterfuck and just feigning complete apathy and 'waiting' for an opportunity instead of trying to stir the pot as much as I did? I have a precedent of not being effective at all in fast-moving games and being useless. It makes no sense for me to go that route as scum.

Because I am firmly of the opinion your intention is or was to claim a PR.

Incidentally, with a significant chance of you in fact legitimately being that PR...just, with you being scum with that PR rather than town. (As in, you holding a PR which isn't by itself a scumclaim.)

[mastina]

Im here wondering how can anyone be scumreading vifam.

[mastina]

Ankamius - 7 (Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, Gorkington, mastina, Sakura Hana, Rick and Andrea, Majiffy)
MagnaofIllusion - 4 (Vifam, Creature, BigYoshiFan, Vecna)
mastina - 2 (Ankamius, Titus)
Vecna - 2 (MagnaofIllusion, Nahdia)

Good fucking god, you literally couldn't ask for a better wagon composition on Ankamius.
...Okay maybe you could, by having one of Vifam/Creature be on it too. Maybe Vecna. Having a lynch with those names would be amazing, because it would be all town, likely on the scum's other PR.

[mastina]

Oh, I'm L-1?
If I end up getting lynched:

If Ankamius avoids getting lynched especially when avoiding explicitly claiming (though admittedly Ankamius implicitly claimed VT it is deliberately not explicit), I am going to be very very very mad.

[mastina]

Question; if you so strongly believe this, why arent you scumreading me for putting the slot into the ground and forcing the issue before Gin could ever come back from V/LA?

I believe lynching Gin so early was anti-town.

I also believe the action very strongly came from town (primarily anyway), which is the main source of the frustration.

I can get pissed at scum, but far more often the people who piss me off are town. And I'm pissed off--not in the "I want to lynch everyone" way, in the "I want to reach through the screen and Homer Simpson strangle you" way. I do not often endorse lynching town...and your action was coming from town.

[mastina]

Since Gin was in our neighborhood scum already know this information so there's no reason to keep it hidden

Fuck you Spiffeh.
I asked for you to give me the green light--not for you to try to explain it for me.

You're doing a piss-poor job of it and giving people the wrong impression.
But since you spilled the beans more or less, I will take that as you green-lighting the go for my official explanation.

I am in fact a rolecop inventor.
IMMEDIATELY upon replacing into the game, the

first

thing I did was go to my neighborhood. At the time I didn't even know there was more than one. My first post there had me immediately lay out the following:
"I am treating this as a masonry. If we have investigatives, target within here first. If we have inventions, hand them out in here first. If we receive an investigation, use it in here. Otherwise more flexibility, but still probably best to use it in here. If this is an all-town neighborhood, we should establish it as quickly as possible."
After submitting this message, I immediately set my target for my invention to bee.

My next post was me saying that if there were players in the neighborhood scumreading each other to stop doing so. I specified for day one only. My third post had me check the first page and realize that our neighborhood was public, I lampshaded the similarity to SMITE, and said I didn't care because the strategy is still sound as viable. Then I breadcrumbed in my topic by writing a poem: I laid out how everyone was town, but said bee was the greatest of them all--hinting at my role, but not outright stating it. (Even though with the above it was pretty blatant.)

On March 6th, I say I think we are all town legitimately. Half an hour later, in part thanks to this belief (and by March 6th, I really mean late March 5th though by basically any timezone it'd be March 6th), I claimed in the neighborhood. I fullclaimed: I claimed I was an inventor, I gave out rolecops, and that I was targeting bee. I laid out all the specifics of my role, what I do and don't know about it.

I also explained one of my motivations for doing so: as a gambit. Specifically--I knew that if the scum knew my role, they would not nightkill me, as I doubted scum had a role which a rolecop could catch. (Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeell...... ) Because it was doubtful they had a role a rolecop could catch ( ), if they knew my role, they wouldn't nightkill me, because it would be BENEFICIAL to keep me alive. Essentially, a rolecop is a role that scum tend to WANT. So, I was specifically gambiting on my life. If I died, it would have given proof that we were all town because the scumteam wouldn't have had reason to kill me knowing my role. (Or so the logic went.)

I also wanted to avoid giving to scum by roleclaiming and asking my neighbors for feedback for who to target--I specified I was targeting bee, but made it clear that I was willing to target ANY of them, should they feel uncomfortable with my selection of bee. (Heck, I was uncomfortable with my selection of bee, but I had the selection because of reasons I'll get to later.)

Therein enters: bribery. Bribery was part of my plan, because I wasn't in the game yet. I knew I wasn't catching scum. I knew I wasn't going to be able to catch scum on D1. I knew that the EARLIEST I could catch scum was on D2. So I needed something to give the scum incentive to let me live, if the scum were in fact within my neighborhood. Bribing them by POTENTIALLY giving them a rolecop (but not necessarily giving them a rolecop) was part of my plan.

...Unfortunately, none of my neighbors actually read this post until the day of the lynch.
I literally explained everything right then and there, but there's more. I went into more detail about my process, explaining that yes I absolutely DID know my March 8th readslist was absolutely wrong and fundamentally could not possibly work as a viable scumteam, meaning my reads were at least partially if not over half off. With me knowing I was more wrong than right, I wanted to live long enough to fix this issue, thus, bribery: if scum were within my neighborhood I wouldn't die. If scum weren't within my neighborhood, sure, I might not die anyway. But if scum were within my neighborhood I was GUARANTEED to live one day at least, especially given the bee target.

Then, on March 10th, you got me saying I was moving from bribery (the above) to blackmail (during basically March 9th): given I was targeting bee, now Gin, with my rolecop, and I wasn't changing that, I was basically giving them an ultimatum: let Gin live, or let my power go to waste. I explained (basically 12 hours later) bee was my initial target because bee held the best balance of the four relevant qualities I was looking for: RECENT game experience with me, my ability to read the slot, my ability to work WITH the slot, and my trust in the competency of the slot. Others vaguely were higher in any one specific category, but I felt bee held the best overall balance in them, and when it came to giving out a rolecop, seeing how bee used it was vital. Gin replacing in was a godsend since Gin was HANDS-DOWN the player best in all four of those areas; Gin would be literally incapable of using what was given in a scum-oriented way without me exposing Gin. I explained how Gin was a long-term investment--if Gin was scum, letting Gin show it would be more valuable than just outright lynching Gin.

There are more details I

could

give, but the absolutely vital one, the absolute most pertinent thing to take from this, is that I had been claimed since bee's tenure in the slot, yet alone, Gin's...so between them they had PLENTY of opportunities to read my post, know I was targeting them...and report this to their scumbuddies.

Now. Why is that important?
...Because it means that Gin was NOT ONLY the scum's strongest power role, BUT ALSO, Gin was set to receive a free gift of something scum ABSOLUTELY have immense use for, a VERY STRONG rolecop. The scum KNEW Gin was set to receive a rolecop. The scum KNEW that Gin was their strongest role AND had something which was going to make Gin EVEN FUCKING STRONGER for N1 because inventions are free--Gin could both kill

and

use the rolecop, free of charge, free of consequence.

...Gin got lynched anyway. WHAT THAT TELLS US. What that tells us. Is that the lynch wagon on Gin is incredibly unlikely to hold many scum on it.

AT ABSOLUTE

MAXIMUM

, it would be two. It is most likely to be only one. Admittedly, there being no scum on the wagon is basically impossible. With Rem and Gorkington as town, the only possible scum off the wagon are Ankamius/Yoshi/Nahdia/Majiffy.
It is theoretically possible, sure, yeah, for three of those names to be scum, just...not very probable.

STILL.
It is also a given that MOST of the names on Gin, given the nature of the scum knowing what I was giving Gin, were not going to bus and therefore most of the names there are town. In particular:

TheRealGin-N-Tonic - 9 (Vifam, Spiffeh, Rick and Andrea, Sakura Hana, Titus, Vecna, MagnaofIllusion, Creature, Ser Arthur Dayne)

Vifam, Spiffeh, Rick, and Sakura all have solid reason to be town; Creature is town; SAD flipped town. That places the viable scum pool for the wagon as Titus/Vecna/MoI. (And I happen to townread Vecna, so.)

Basically, you've got 1-3 scum in Ankamius/Yoshi/Nahdia/Majiffy. (Most likely 2; I say Ankamius and Yoshi.)
You've got 0-2 scum in Titus/Vecna/MoI. (Most likely 1; I say Titus.)

This isn't VCA, so much as it is common sense and knowing what it was that Gin was getting. Gin was getting a fucking rolecop. One of the best abilities scum could get. Gin was a nerfed ninja. One of the better scum powers even nerfed. Between the two, and between the nature of the wagon, most of this is really self-evident.

[mastina]

Because I know people are going to skim, to highlight the important part:

I am a rolecop inventor.
On March 6th (and by March 6th, I really mean late March 5th though by basically any timezone it'd be March 6th), I claimed in the neighborhood. I fullclaimed: I claimed I was an inventor, I gave out rolecops,

and that I was targeting bee

. I laid out all the specifics of my role, what I do and don't know about it.

There are more details I

could

give, but the absolutely vital one, the absolute most pertinent thing to take from this, is that

I had been claimed since bee's tenure in the slot, yet alone, Gin's...so between them they had PLENTY of opportunities to read my post, know I was targeting them...and report this to their scumbuddies.

Gin was NOT ONLY the scum's strongest power role, BUT ALSO, Gin was set to receive a free gift of something scum ABSOLUTELY have immense use for, a VERY STRONG rolecop

. The scum KNEW Gin was set to receive a rolecop. The scum KNEW that Gin was their strongest role AND had something which was going to make Gin EVEN FUCKING STRONGER for N1 because inventions are free--Gin could both kill

and

use the rolecop, free of charge, free of consequence.

...Gin got lynched anyway. WHAT THAT TELLS US. What that tells us. Is that

the lynch wagon on Gin is incredibly unlikely to hold many scum on it

. It is most likely to be only one.

MOST of the names on Gin, given the nature of the scum knowing what I was giving Gin, were not going to bus and therefore most of the names there are town

. In particular:

TheRealGin-N-Tonic - 9 (Vifam, Spiffeh, Rick and Andrea, Sakura Hana, Titus, Vecna, MagnaofIllusion, Creature, Ser Arthur Dayne)

Vifam, Spiffeh, Rick, and Sakura all have solid reason to be town; Creature is town; SAD flipped town. That places the viable scum pool for the wagon as Titus/Vecna/MoI. (And I happen to townread Vecna, so.)

Basically, you've got 1-3 scum in Ankamius/Yoshi/Nahdia/Majiffy. (Most likely 2; I say Ankamius and Yoshi.)
You've got 0-2 scum in Titus/Vecna/MoI. (Most likely 1; I say Titus.)

Essentially: bee/Gin was my target for the rolecop. The scum KNEW bee/Gin's role

and

that bee/Gin would be able to use an absolutely FREE rolecop. This was something literally too good to pass up--so the scum literally

cannot

have bussed heavily given this and the idea that they did is fucking laughable.

Even though I have a scumread on Titus, even though MoI is among the possible scumspects, we shouldn't be lynching FROM the Gin wagon today. We should be lynching OFF the wagon today. We should be lynching in Ankamius/Yoshi/Nahdia/Majiffy.
In those names, Ankamius by FAR stands out as the worst. Yoshi's second, and is the likely scum on the Creature counterwagon. (You might be tempted to say Gin was Creature's counterwagon. Not so. Creature's wagon existed all day long, true enough, but Creature's wagon gained momentum AS a counterwagon to the Gin slot...

twice

.)

[mastina]

I should also note: because Spiffeh, Sakura, and SAD all knew I was targeting Gin, them all being on the lynch is again VERY strong evidence for them being town. (With this being confirmed already for SAD.) Let's assume that, for whatever reason, me being a rolecop targeting bee/Gin SOMEHOW wasn't communicated to the scumteam--that the first they are learning of it is now. Sure, that would leave Vifam/Rick/Titus/Vecna/MoI as possible scum...but because Spiffeh/Sakura knew, they CANNOT be scum because they had access to this information the whole time and went through with it anyway.

And that would be quite the fucking assumption! Far more likely than not, the scumteam did in fact know. So they would be on Gin fully knowing all of this information...which, simply doesn't make much sense. So again. Scum did not heavily bus. There is probably scum there, yes--one scum, and only one. We are NOT lynching within the wagon until we have at least two scum dead off the wagon though. (I'll be generous and count Gin as one dead scum off the wagon.)

We lynch Ankamius. Ank flips scum? We can revisit the Gin wagon. Ank flips town, we lynch someone ELSE off the wagon, preferably Yoshi, rinse and repeat until we do get a second scum flip.

This is just basic reasoning, simple POE from simple deductions that are really fucking obvious.
There's a shitton of reasons why Ankamius is my preference over all others, with Yoshi as second, which I will reveal if necessary. But frankly, this alone really should be enough.

[mastina]

ok mastina how does this incriminate ankamius again?

It doesn't directly. I never said it did. I said it changed everything--and it does. It means the Gin wagon is exponentially more town, thanks to Gin's exponentially stronger role: not only the ninja, but also the free rolecop, yet being lynched anyway. Two, three scum bussing there is so stupidly idiotic I can't think anyone could seriously, legitimately think that given this knowledge. The MOST you've got there is one scum.

As a result, there's two scum in the non-Gin voters. I am effectively clearing Gorkington because Gorkington is obvtown. I am also effectively clearing Rem because fuck the idea of having a watcher-inventor on the same scumteam as a watch-immune goon; Antihero doesn't do that kind of cutesy shit. (And he would in fact use that exact term: "cutesy shit" is a phrase I can totally see Antihero using.) Given that I am town, that places two scum in a VERY small pool:
You/Majiffy/Yoshi/Ankamius.

The reasons for Ankamius being scum are entirely unrelated. The reasons for Ankamius being scum are different, and have yet to be released. There's four names for two slots (three from your perspective), sure, yeah, but the reason I think Ankamius is scum goes beyond that. (Like, you have reason to be scum but I don't think you are; Majiffy could be scum but I don't think he is; Ankamius and Yoshi are both scumreads entirely independent of this analysis.)

[mastina]

Nothing about these roles suggest they must be different alignments.

How about "Antihero loves to bitch about shitty game design and so he wouldn't intentionally make something which he as a player would call shitty game design"?

Because yeah.
Watch-immune goon on a scumteam with a watch-inventor? That's shitty game design.

Also I laid out in the neighborhood why I don't think the watcher is the scum inventor this game for reasons I currently want kept private.

[mastina]

Looking back at BYF's ISO I see he was vocally scum reading Creature yesterday but he has barely even mentioned him today. And at the beginning of the Day he made a really awful vote hopping on the rapidly forming MoI wagon when the only time he almost never mentions MoI the previous Day?

I mean.

There's a damn-good reason I'm scumreading him.

[mastina]

I haven't seen anything that says "Creature is town".

Basic way the game has unfolded, really.
Creature was not a dueling scum wagon with bee/Gin. If the scum had dueling scum wagons, they would be scrambling to try and figure out a way to dismantle it. They did not. So your options are scum deliberately decided to cross-bus one another (lolno), OR, far more likely...Creature was the town wagon.

That, aside from Creature's vote on bee/Gin near the end of the day. That was not a bus vote. Just like SAD's hammer was not a bus vote. They were quite literally hands-down the towniest votes on the entire wagon--even Vifam/Spiffeh aren't as town as Creature and SAD were.

[mastina]

In the morning I will go into detail if not clear. Basically, wuth mastina's push to give Gin a rolecop, scum would not bus Gin unless they felt there was no shot to save him. That makes me do a double take on Vecna's vote Gin or we don't lynch him today push.

Fuck you Titus for posting this before me.
Like.
I still posted it first because I posted it in my neighborhood during the night phase if I recall correctly. (Or basically immediately upon daystart if not.)
And because I read linearly I had no knowledge you posted this.

Butstill.

I said this first, dammit!

Butyeah. Scum? Not on Gin, for the most part--there's a MAXIMUM of one scum there. And I certainly don't think it's Vecna!
So Scum? In Ankamius/Yoshi/Nahdia/Majiffy. At least two. (Three, if Gin was all-town, as unlikely as that is.)
Thus, one of the reasons I am pushing Ankamius so strongly.

(This is just NOT Gorkington as scum. Period. End of discussion. Very very very very VERY strongly. This is Gorkington as town, hands-down, every step of the way. Rem is also town. Antihero would NOT make a watch-immune goon with a scum watcher-inventor. He simply wouldn't. Antihero hates moderator shenanigans; that EASILY qualifies as a moderator shenanigan.)

That's your lynchpool for today. Nobody else is acceptable.

[mastina]

But the bottom line is, it relies on two things: 1) Scum is heavily communicating/coordinating their efforts
2) Scum will act how YOU believe it optimally for them to act

Okay.
Exercise.

Name a scumteam which

wouldn't

both:
-Communicate/coordinate efforts
-Behave the way I describe.

Think of the players in this game.
MagnaofIllusion coordinates INCREDIBLY well with his scum partners. He's also not a moron. He knows the value of Gin's role, especially when Gin was being boosted by MY role. He also is fully capable of knowing when a scumbuddy is going down, and whether it is viable or not to save them, and what the best time to gain town credit for a lynch on a scumbuddy is. (This last point is actually something which makes me think he's not scum--if he were scum, he'd KNOW his hop-on at the last minute would give zero towncred and be seen as scum bussing; if he were scum, I would expect him to know to stay off the wagon.)

Gorkington coordinates INCREDIBLY well with his scum partners. He, too, is not a moron. He knows the value of Gin's role especially boosted by my role, knows when a scumbuddy is going down, and if it is viable to save them. (Not very relevant though, since Gorkington is hands-down town, butstill.)

Spiffeh coordinates reasonably well with his scum partners. He was also more in the fucking know than any other player in the game, thanks to being in my neighborhood. He knew, unlike players outside my neighborhood, that I wasn't a viable mislynch. There was going to be no reward for the Gin lynch (aside from potentially cheap towncred), and there was incredible risk, namely, that Gin was that super-fucking-strong role which was boosted by my own role. While he can and does bus scumbuddies, he doesn't do so carelessly; he makes sure that the bus is okay. (See also: coordinates reasonably well with scum partners.)

Rem/Ram I admit to lacking experience with--but again, I can and will treat them as conftown because Antihero HATES cutesy shit, he HATES moderator shenanigans, and he wouldn't fucking dare do the ONE thing which pisses him off. (He doesn't approve of things such as, say, scum-scum neighbors. Same basic concept here; he would not fucking approve of a watch-immune goon with a scum watcher-inventor. That defeats the whole fucking purpose of the game and he KNOWS it would.) So they can't be on any scumteam ANYWAY meaning that even if they were someone who wouldn't act the way I describe, they can't qualify regardless.

Admittedly it's been a long time since I've played with Sakura, but from what I can recall, Sakura too communicates with scumbuddies, and does so even more frequently than Sakura posts in-thread. (Memory tells me Sakura is a VERY prominent poster in scum PTs, to the point where Sakura could post fifty times in a scum PT yet be lurking in the main thread.) Sakura, too, like Spiffeh, was in the know, and knew that there was no reward for the Gin lynch and incredible risk, namely losing the strong scum role boosted even further by mine.

Rick/Andrea, I'll leave to your judgement, since my own Firebringer experience is flawed and my MariaR experience is nonexistent. Were it my call, I'd admit that Rick would be the first player in the playerlist who could feasibly fit the profile of NOT communicating/coordinating with scumbuddies, and who definitely doesn't match my pattern of behavior. But that's one possible name on the entire fucking list of players thusfar. I do have a non-meta townread on the slot, backed by me REALLY wanting to trust SAD having Rick as one of his strongest townreads (well, it was really Andrea he townread butstill), so there's that throwing doubt onto whether Rick could be scum.

Vifam, second player, since I lack the game experience with Vifam as scum to know how well Vifam coordinates with scumbuddies, yet alone, how Vifam operates. I can tell you I have a Vifam townread separate of this, of course. Off of the game without meta, I think Vifam is town. But without knowing how Vifam operates as scum, I'll concede it's possible for Vifam to be scum here.

Vecna, third player, since I also lack the game experience with him as scum to know how he plays with them, or how he operates. I also have him as a townread, not as strongly as Vifam, but still existing separate of meta. So I suppose if you think that the scumteam's Rick-Vifam-Vecna, you could plausibly see them not acting in the way I have outlined, but if you really think that's the scumteam...lol? That's about all I can think of to say.

Titus is a fucking QUEEN of coordinating with her scumbuddies. It's literally her fucking specialty. She communicates with them, she prods them, she pokes them, she tells them where to go, what to do, and so on and so forth. She works with them every step of the way. She is also one of the strongest proponents of not bussing, BUT, she can and will break this established meta at specific strategic times especially when she knows she is being expected not to bus. She'd also know the full fucking strength of Gin's role and the rolecop on top of that. (This is actually the closest to a reason why she could be town, and is again why I am NOT lynching from the Gin wagon until we hit a second scum off the wagon.)

Majiffy is a fucking KING of coordinating with his scumbuddies. You might not think he is. But he is a goddamned POWERHOUSE scum player. There's a reason I trusted him to lead the scum in Left 4 Dead to victory. He knows how to utilize scum roles. He knows how to maximize effective scum tactics. He also knows exactly when to bus and when not to bus. He is no moron. A scumteam with Majiffy on it will be led by Majiffy. And a scumteam led by Majiffy thinks pretty similarly to how *I* operate as scum, because Majiffy and I have a natural synchronization as the same alignment. (Incidentally this is one reason Majiffy's in the lynchpool. I don't think he's likely to be scum, but he's more likely to be scum than the majority of players here.)

Yoshi, fourth player. I lack experience with him. If you think the scumteam's Rick-Vifam-Yoshi, or Rick-Vecna-Yoshi, or Vifam-Vecna-Yoshi, I'd be more than happy to help you string Yoshi up though! Assuming we lynched Yoshi FIRST that is.

Gin is VERY strongly anti-bussing. Trust me. I am Gin's friend, I've talked to Gin, Gin is the Ginhai of Pine who is very strongly anti-bussing, and Gin also is a student of MY school of thought where I literally wrote the book on NOT bussing. Gin would not approve of a bus. bee, bee might. There I admit familiarity. But during Gin's tenure in the slot, Gin knows how pro-town (and thus, anti-scum) bussing is. Furthermore, Gin can and does coordinate with scumbuddies. I realize real-life was kicking Gin heavily. But Gin had time in the slot PRIOR TO Gin's real-life emergency where that coordination can and did happen, guaranteed.

Ankamius is admittedly a player with no fear of bussing, or, at least, distancing. (The latter is what I feel Ankamius did. A vote on Titus, withdrawn. A vote on Yoshi, withdrawn.) I don't know how well Ankamius coordinates with scumbuddies. But if Ankamius is scum, with literally any of the above names...well then just fucking lynch Ankamius because that was my conclusion anyway.

Creature is the fifth name I don't know his scumgame. I know his town game well enough. I don't know what he does or doesn't do as scum. However, unless you're Majiffy, you presumably believe like I do that Creature is not scum anyway, so that would mean Creature would be disqualified from contention in terms of being a scumfuck with a style subverting my expectations.

The last name in question would be you. You know your alignment. You also know how you operate with scumbuddies. I read Bloodborne, so I know you are fucking on TOP of coordinating and communicating with your scumbuddies; it's kind-of your thing. You won't shy away from a bus if it's necessary, but it's not something you'll enjoy and it's something you do try to avoid. So you would in fact count as someone acting the way I describe if scum. But presumably you know that you're not, so you know that you couldn't be one acting that way.

Basically I know I'm fucking right because I fucking know over half of these players and how they operate as scum. There's literally a grand total of FIVE names who could so much as PLAUSIBLY act in a way contrary to what I laid out. And two of them are in my lynch pool anyway! So I have damn good reason for making my statement. Scum heavily communicated/coordinated. And scum acted approximately how I laid out.

I mean, sure. I'll probably be wrong on the exact specifics. There are names who if they are scum have acted outside of the guidelines I set forth. But I know at this point I am at the very least, more right than wrong. And that's good enough for me.

[mastina]

Incidentally, Antihero considers godfathers mod shenanigans and that's the one role above all others he despises.
He also has gone on record to believe that a ninja to counter a tracker is just as despicable as a godfather to counter a cop. I can track down these statements if necessary, and it is because of these that you can see him designing a NERFED ninja, designed to be immune to a watcher specifically. (Incidentally, this is an idea he has previously suggested. Again, I could probably track it down, but I think Antihero actually INVENTED the role, but invented it well BEFORE this game.)

I have damn fucking good reason to say Antihero would not put a watcher-inventor on the same team as a watch-immune goon.
He hates godfathers, he hates ninjas as a counter to trackers but sees them as a necessary evil...to counter watchers. Watch-immune does this without countering trackers. And is why I am so sure Rem is town.

[mastina]

Mod meta is crap. It is theoretically possible for RR to be scum, just not likely.

Not Antihero mod meta. He is an incredibly consistent mod in what he sees as acceptable and what he sees as unacceptable. Mod shenanigans is NOT something Antihero takes kindly to. I have seen him go on extremely long-winded rants to the effect of how shitty those things were.

He will not have boring/bland setups. His setups will always be interesting. His setups will always feature ways for scum to not be caught, but these ways also allow for the town to logically and REASONABLY conclude the scum roles are scum. He is incredibly consistent in this regard. The scum inventor roles in both this game's predecessors were scum roles that offered a VERY OBVIOUS scum advantage...yet were NOT themselves scumclaims. A scum-watcher-inventor you can't realistically argue there is a very obvious scum advantage to, least of all on a team with a watch-immune goon.

What's the watcher supposed to do? Be used for towncred? Catch a player using a ONE SHOT INVENTION? (Hint: this is what a watcher is going to catch because the backbone of the town's power in these games is the inventors; while we will have a non-inventor role, said non-inventor role will likely be singular, meaning most watches will catch...one-shot inventions, which is useless to the scum to know. Meaning, scum have virtually zero utility for a watcher.)

Fuck no. The watcher-inventor is town.

That you want to keep Rem as a possible mislynch when YOU OF ALL PEOPLE SHOULD KNOW THIS (especially given you're one of the few players who was in BOTH PRIOR GAMES) is one reason among MANY that you're a top scumread of mine.

[mastina]

What's the watcher supposed to do? Be used for towncred? Catch a player using a ONE SHOT INVENTION? (Hint: this is what a watcher is going to catch because the backbone of the town's power in these games is the inventors; while we will have a non-inventor role, said non-inventor role will likely be singular, meaning most watches will catch...one-shot inventions, which is useless to the scum to know. Meaning, scum have virtually zero utility for a watcher.)

I would like to remind players, for emphasis: neither a watcher nor a tracker can catch an inventor, because inventing is a day action, and watching/tracking is a night action.

Organic Chemistry, the first game in this series, had ZERO non-inventor night actioning town roles. (It had masons, no night action. It had a backup inventor. No night action. It had three town inventions and one scum invention.)
Inorganic Chemistry, this game's predecessor, had ONE non-inventor night actioning town role. (A town neighborizer.) That was it.

Prior games in this series have

had

non-inventor PRs, sure. And this game will be no different, yeah!
...But most night actions in both prior games, and presumably also THIS game, were from inventors gifting out inventions.
An inventor can't gift to themselves.
And the player who gets the invention can use the invention ABSOLUTELY FOR FREE. If they receive three inventions, they can use all of them. If they have a role, they can use the role in addition to those three inventions.

A watcher getting a result doesn't tell the watcher that the player visiting their target has a power role. It usually just tells the watcher that the player visiting their target received an invention and used it. This is virtually useless to the mafia to know, especially given that well over half the time a town player is going to claim an invention they received then used. (Over half, but kept hidden juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust enough where a lack of a claim isn't a power role claim.) Fuck, even if the watcher sees a player double-visit a target it doesn't tell the watcher that player has a power role because a player can receive and use more than one invention!

A watcher-inventor has zero utility outside of "lol mod wifom" to the scumteam. (Did I mention Antihero absolutely despises mod wifom? Because, uh. Yeah. Antihero fucking HATES mod wifom.)
A watcher-inventor has a metric fuckton of utility to the town especially after the loss of the watch-immune goon.

Ergo, Rem is town.
This goes beyond mod meta.
This goes into simple, basic, game design.

And by the way. Titus was the one in my shoes last game. She had to constantly tell others about this. Fuck, I think SHE was the one who told ME that Antihero hates godfathers! So her holding that mod meta is crap,

when she was a proponent of mod meta in this game's predecessor

, is quite literally a scumclaim.

[mastina]

Nevermind on the godfather point.
Someone else was telling THEM that Antihero hates Godfathers. I misremembered. (I coulda sworn she was the one who told me though. Guess not. It DID happen that game, though. Someone pointed out godfathers simply aren't something Antihero ever approves of. It just wasn't Titus.)

[mastina]

I still hold firm to the other half of the point, though.
Titus should

know

everything I say in 4511.
She should know what the game here is most likely to be like. She knows the mechanics of the inventors are identical to prior games. She fucking knows that a watcher-inventor for scum has zero scum utility when most night actions are invention-based and thus not something the scum have useful knowledge for (it tells the scum that specific player received an invention, nothing more, and this does little that they don't already know). It's basic setup design, something she should know how to use.

[mastina]

There's zero way of knowing if Gin is scum's strongest power role.

Yes, there is.
It is called Antihero fucking hates with a passion royally stacked scumteams.
YOU FUCKING KNOW THIS.
You KNOW that Antihero hates scumteams being packed to the brim with roles.
You KNOW that Antihero is a STRONG advocate for scum

already having too fucking much power

.
Antihero says this in games as a player. (I can track down these links if given time.)
Antihero says this in games as a moderator.
Antihero's past games as a moderator have shown a strong indication that he follows this principle of avoiding too much scum power.
Antihero is part of the NRG (and mind you so am I so I am privy to some of his thoughts which you are not as I get to see him reviewing in real time), and his stances there are relatively public, and easy to track down.
Like, he says this shit in Mafia Discussion. This is not some secret knowledge only I hold. Antihero's stance on scum power could not be any more abundantly clear: he hates it when they have too much.
In an 18-player game, Antihero expects ONE OR TWO scum roles, of MEDIUM STRENGTH. This is what Antihero expects of a balanced game, this is what Antihero expects of, say, fellow NRG mods like Firebringer, mhsmith, me (okay maybe not me when I run a theme but me when I run a non-crazy mastina game), and probably others who I can't think of because Firebringer/mhsmith/Antihero are honestly the only other NRG members that I actively remember, but you get the idea. He expects this of them. And he, in turn, is expected to hold that same fucking standard himself.

This, NOT EVEN GOING INTO, how

I was targeting Gin with my rolecop invention

, which inherently boosted the strength of Gin's value to a scumteam even FURTHER. Gin could use the rolecop on a player the scum wanted to know the role of, WHILE STILL KILLING, because the rolecop is free.

Gin was the scum's strongest scum PR. The scum also have

exactly

one other PR. No more, no less. Said extra PR is an inventor. Which inventor is more up-to-debate. It's not me, and it's not Rem. The scum's inventor could be something being kept private, for instance. But that IS in fact the scum's second and ONLY OTHER PR.

All of this is self-evident from basic facts.

[mastina]

hi I don't like this Vecna wagon

^

Ankamius - 5 (Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, mastina, Rick and Andrea, Vecna)
MagnaofIllusion - 3 (Vifam, Creature, BigYoshiFan)
Vecna - 6 (MagnaofIllusion, Nahdia, Majiffy, Ankamius, Titus, Sakura Hana)
Not Voting: Gorkington

...Literally the only fucking way it could get any worse is if Yoshi joined it.

It has literally every scumspect in the game save Yoshi already on it. THAT ALONE should tell you something.

Sakura. Look at your company on this wagon. LOOK AT YOUR FUCKING COMPANY ON THE WAGON.
Then look at the Ankamius wagon you

were

on. Look at the company there.

Tell me, which of those wagons has names you are townreading?
Which of those wagons has names you are scumreading?

Literally as clear as night and fucking day.

[mastina]

You. Fucking. Scumass.

You're talking to Titus, right?
In that case, for the fact, yes.

[mastina]

Ank's behavior around the Gin wagon is still the worst out of everyone. I still don't like how she mentions a scum read on me in passing without pursuing it. I ESPECIALLY don't like how she drops her Sakura scum read as soon as Sakura backs down.

Spiffeh, if you're scum, congratulations on a don corelone nomination the year after a paragon nomination because you'd be getting one for just how thoroughly you'd have me pocketed right now.

[mastina]

anti is on the nrg. one of the core tenets of balance in the NRG right now [and one that anti supports] is that town is dumb as fuck. and needs all the help they can get. i really dont think anti says "you know what this scumteam that is already at an advantage over town needs? a watcher-inventor/watch-immune goon combo who have a ridiculous amount of synergy with each other"

i dont know what the rest of the setup is. but there would have to be a ridiculous amount of town power to compensate for that in order for anti to feel thats balanced.

This. So fucking much, this. Antihero is VERY conservative in giving out power roles. Each game has had 2-3 town inventors, then a little bit of extra town power beyond the inventors, countered by a scum inventor and a little bit of extra scum power. The first game had slightly heavier town power, so the scum that game had slightly heavier power. But in both instances, the game was, at its heart: fairly simple. Light. Not strong on either side. Not overwhelming. Not filled to the brim with roles. Not very swingy. Low-power. Low strength.

Antihero does NOT give the scum a strong combo and leave the town with basically nothing. My rolecop is basically useless. The other invention we have on the table, a tracker, is of only marginal value to the town. Antihero doesn't fucking stack his scumteams, least of all against a weakened town. He has both sides as relatively low on the power side, favoring town powers ever so slightly more, but not leaving the scum defenseless against said strength.

Simple. Balance. Basic, fundamental game design.
Oh.
And did I mention, one of the reviewers for this game is TellTaleHeart? Who, mind you, I think might

also

be a member of the NRG? (She's listed on the admittedly out-of-date page, but often NRG members once in never get booted out unless they specifically ask to leave, so. Presumably she's still in there.) Cutesy shit simply wouldn't slide by both Antihero and TellTaleHeart, who hate it. They know balance. They fucking KNOW balance. They're two of the better players in terms of knowing balance on the site. And they know that a watcher-inventor on the scumteam with a watch-immune goon is not fucking balanced.

Rem is town. Period.

[mastina]

I honestly wouldn't be opposed to flashwagoning BYF

^

[mastina]

I honestly wouldn't be opposed to flashwagoning BYF

Ok this isn't true I still want Ank lynched over everyone else
But BYF is getting overlooked when he shouldn't be

^

[mastina]

Look at this scum counter wagon ono Veca that's fking funny Anyone who doesn't vote Ank is going back into my sort pile

^

[mastina]

EDIT: Damn thats a lot of Mastina blog on the rest of the page.

No. Fuck no. Read it. I lay out exactly why we should be lynching Ankamius today in there. 4291, 4292, and 4293. Important. Fucking read them. Skip the rest if you like. Not those fucking three posts.

[mastina]

bit perturbed why you didnt see fit to claim when u saw you're at L-1. like, not even a mention of the consideration.

And why didn't you bitch when Ankamius did this?

[mastina]

cough
pronouns
PEdit: Magna

Sorry. It is going to take me time to re-write my brain given that you recently changed it.

I changed mine three years ago and have MULTIPLE FUCKING TIMES called you out on it and you have been called out BY OTHER PEOPLE about me too.

What's your fucking excuse for misgendering ME?

[mastina]

If I wasn't late going out the fucking door I'd be responding to the bullshit Vecna case but as-is I'm going to be fifteen minutes late leaving for dance so I'm going to catch up now and if people are in any way sheeping Titus rather than calling her out for her bullshit then I'll do the work when I get home.

[mastina]

So... who would oppose to me hammering right now?

The fact people let this shit slide is frankly despicable because more blatant scumposting, you'll never find.

[mastina]

If Ankamius was at L-1, I certainly wasn't paying attention.

Ankamius - 7 (Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, Gorkington, mastina, Sakura Hana, Rick and Andrea, Majiffy)
MagnaofIllusion - 4 (Vifam, Creature, BigYoshiFan, Vecna)
mastina - 2 (Ankamius, Titus)
Vecna - 2 (MagnaofIllusion, Nahdia)

Sakura left, Vecna joined, it was back to L-1 after that and only stopped because Gorkington unvoted as well.

[mastina]

And Ankamius was online during that L-1 period. Crossreference posts if you don't believe me, or if you're too lazy I'll do it tonight to show you.

[mastina]

didnt ank essentially claim ages ago?

Softed VT, but never explicitly claimed it.

[mastina]

We need a lynch. We need it to be on scum.

We had it! But then Sakura unvoted out of doubt/paranoia, and Gorkington unvoted because he felt the day shouldn't end so quickly.

[mastina]

If mastina reconsiders someone as scum, that person is scum. (as in thinks they are scum then thinks they are town)

TheRealGin-N-Tonic
Majiffy
Creature
MagnaofIllusion

Rick and Andrea

Titus
BigYoshiFan
Nahdia
This is about where I am reads-wise right now.

Rick/Andrea,

I do have a non-meta townread on the slot

, backed by me REALLY wanting to trust SAD having Rick as one of his strongest townreads (well, it was really Andrea he townread butstill), so there's that throwing doubt onto whether Rick could be scum.

You

sure

you want to take that stance?

[mastina]

IF MASTIN IS TOWN SHE IS PROBABLY GOING TO ACCIDENTALLY NAIL SOME SCUM.

^There's also the fact that I have very good reasons for wanting Ankamius lynched.

Beyond

the fact that I scumread Ankamius, EVEN IF I am wrong about Ankamius, it STILL gives a very clear direction on who the scum would be. (For instance, Majiffy's chances of being scum skyrocket if Ankamius flips town. I'd say Yoshi's would too if Yoshi wasn't already a scumfuck. Nahdia's chance of being scum

marginally

increases, but not nearly as much as the rest of the lynchpool.)

I think Ankamius is scum.
If I am wrong, I have a clear picture of who would be scum if Ankamius is not. (Well. Not perfectly clear. Just, fair idea, off of some educated guesses and assumptions on my part.)

There's a damn fucking good reason I'm pushing for her lynch.

[mastina]

So her death tunneling ank means she is town.

I will acknowledge the possibility of Ankamius being town. It is possible--not likely, but

possible

all the same.

But you should lynch Ankamius anyway because if Ankamius does flip town it tells us arguably even more than Ankamius flipping scum would.

[mastina]

Majiffy, she called you a god of scum. (mastina)

KING.
I called him a KING of scum.
I guess he could be a god-king though.

[mastina]

Ankamius - 4 (Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, mastina, Vecna)
BigYoshiFan - 1 (Nahdia)
MagnaofIllusion - 2 (Vifam, BigYoshiFan)
Vecna - 6 (MagnaofIllusion, Majiffy, Ankamius, Titus, Sakura Hana, Creature)
Not Voting: Gorkington, Rick and Andrea

Like.
The fact that the Ankamius wagon has been literally halved and continues to shrink yet the Vecna wagon remains basically the same should tell you everything you need to know.

LOOK AT THE NAMES ON ANKAMIUS. Aside from Vecna, who there is scum? Spiffeh? Rem? Me?
Basically, no scum are pushing it.

IF VECNA WERE ACTUALLY SCUM.
YOU WOULD THINK THAT AFTER LYNCHING SCUM DAY FUCKING ONE.
SCUM WOULD HAVE SOME INTEREST IN SAVING THEIR REMAINING SCUMBUDDIES.

Vecna is fucking town.
There's literally no wagon that can be driven by scum. Nahdia's Yoshi vote isn't garnering support. Vifam/Yoshi's MoI wagon is a remnant of an earlier stage in the game and it isn't coming back. So where. the. FUCK. Are the scum? Doing fuckall when THEY ARE ALREADY DOWN A MEMBER?

Jesus Christ, how fucking bad do you think the scumteam is?
Do you honestly feel they would be, what, bussing a second scumbuddy after they literally fucking bussed on D1? (The idea of Vecna being scum requires scum to have done so.)

Vecna is town.
I would lynch literally every name on there save Sakura.
Yes, even Creature. Creature loses towncred just for not realizing just how fucking shitty this Vecna wagon is because he should if town be able to realize this.

[mastina]

NEED I REMIND YOU

Ankamius - 5 (Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, Gorkington, Rick and Andrea, mastina)
Creature - 1 (Majiffy)
MagnaofIllusion - 5 (Vifam, Creature, BigYoshiFan, Sakura Hana, Vecna)
mastina - 1 (Ankamius)
Rem and Ram - 1 (Nahdia)
Vecna - 1 (MagnaofIllusion)
Vifam - 1 (Titus)

The Ankamius and MoI wagons existed in tandem with one another--neither was really the "counterwagon" to the other as both grew at approximately the same rate.

Ankamius - 7 (Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, Gorkington, mastina, Sakura Hana, Rick and Andrea, Majiffy)
MagnaofIllusion - 4 (Vifam, Creature, BigYoshiFan, Vecna)
mastina - 2 (Ankamius, Titus)
Vecna - 2 (MagnaofIllusion, Nahdia)

Basically the peak of the Ankamius wagon. Counterwagons begin to form.

Ankamius - 5 (Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, mastina, Rick and Andrea, Vecna)
MagnaofIllusion - 3 (Vifam, Creature, BigYoshiFan)
mastina - 2 (Ankamius, Titus)
Vecna - 2 (MagnaofIllusion, Nahdia)
Not Voting: Gorkington, Majiffy, Sakura Hana

With pressure on Ankamius lessened, the wagons actually SHRINK.

Ankamius - 5 (Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, mastina, Rick and Andrea, Vecna)
MagnaofIllusion - 2 (Vifam, BigYoshiFan)
Vecna - 7 (MagnaofIllusion, Nahdia, Majiffy, Ankamius, Titus, Sakura Hana, Creature)
Not Voting: Gorkington

...And then we get the Vecna wagon exploding in size.

Ankamius - 4 (Spiffeh, Rem and Ram, mastina, Vecna)
BigYoshiFan - 1 (Nahdia)
MagnaofIllusion - 2 (Vifam, BigYoshiFan)
Vecna - 6 (MagnaofIllusion, Majiffy, Ankamius, Titus, Sakura Hana, Creature)
Not Voting: Gorkington, Rick and Andrea

...With it still essentially the same size. And the Ankamius wagon shrinking and shrinking, while the Vecna wagon remains strong with no indication scum are doing anything to save Vecna.

There were indications that scum tried to save Gin. (At least when Gin was bee, if nothing else!) There's the opposite here in regards to Vecna. You couldn't get a more shitty attempt to mislynch town.

[mastina]

idk how ppl strongly townread Majiffy

I don't. He's in my scumpool even if Ankamius flips scum. Were Ankamius to flip town, I'd basically treat Majiffy as confscum. Basically, he

could

be scum if Ankamius is scum (albeit less likely than others)...
...But he

IS

scum if Ankamius is town.
Mind you, that's another reason I want the Ankamius lynch. I want her flip to help me sort Majiffy.
I fucking KNOW that Vecna is town.
I am pretty damn sure Ankamius is scum, but not to the same level of confidence I have in Vecna being town.

An Ankamius townflip shifts my game perspective slightly, but not considerably.
A Vecna townflip tells me fuckall because it's a given he's town.

[mastina]

so mastina's tl;dr: MoI is town because he knows how to be scum, a bunch of other meta-analysis of people's scumgames that i can't even remember, something about anti's roles that make RAR conftown, and mastina's role then it's probably scum then?
Did i get that right?

Not really but not in the mood to fight.

[mastina]

VOTE: BYF

Fuckit.
VOTE: BigYoshiFan.

This is now larger than the Ankamius wagon. (Pathetic as that is.)

The players who said they would flashwagon Yoshi:

Now would be the time.

[mastina]

Feeling like the bus is between Rick and Andrea, Titus, Vecna and MagnaofIllusion.

Or! Get this!

The Vecna wagon which looks like it has a scum on it is fucking scumdriven because the scum--after losing a member D1--DON'T WANT TO FUCKING LOSE ANOTHER AND THEREFORE ARE NOT BUSSING.

[mastina]

I'm setting reminders on my phone. Once this game ends, I will fucking hound you until I get a mother fucking apology for your ridiculous shit I have to put up with. Expect it.

Don't both. You can't hold it against Titus to push something shitty when it's literally her wincon to do so.

[mastina]

You even said sometime in the past that you believe I'm competent at the game as town and your latest few posts are suggesting that your read isn't as strong as it used to be, so I don't understand how why you're still playing like this at all.

Okay.
Get this.
Part of my scumread on you, and Majiffy for that matter, IS that I expect that competency.

And I'm not fucking seeing it

.
Because wagoning Vecna is absolutely fucking shitty and painfully transparent that Vecna is in fact town.

[mastina]

VOTE: BYF

Fuckit.
VOTE: BigYoshiFan.
This is now larger than the Ankamius wagon. (Pathetic as that is.)

The players who said they would flashwagon Yoshi:

Now would be the time.

Spiffeh, I know this includes you!

[mastina]

Posting here to say, probably not posting tonight: there's some white stuff on my kitten's nose. Now, a quick google tells me I should

probably

not be concerned.

Most likely, kitty litter. (After all, she has some basically permanent black stuff stuck to her fur under her chin which I assume is food dried into her fur; this wouldn't be much different.) Maybe dry skin.

Still, all the same: I want to alert my family of this and keep an eye on her until I can personally deliver the message, so...not going to post tonight even though I planned to.

Sorry.

[mastina]

Sakura.
You had one fucking job.
YOU HAD ONE FUCKING JOB.

*sigh*
Gimme a moment. Stuff incoming.

[mastina]

mastina who'd you give your invention and why?

I did exactly what I fucking said I would since D1: kept it within the neighborhood. Sakura Hana was the obvious choice, both because I honestly trusted Sakura more than Spiffeh, and because Spiffeh if town would be more likely to eat a bullet than Sakura. (So, basically, a rare time where I could target someone NOT ONLY more likely to be town, BUT ALSO more likely to live and tell the tale.)

Apparently I wasn't the only one with the idea, because the jailkeep-inventor (a town inventor btw) and TWIE both targeted Sakura.
I came up with the plan to jail Gorkington and watch TWIE, namely because it'd cover the two targets likely to be the scum NK. (And with the strongman dead, would be infallible. THANKS SAKURA.) I wanted it specifically in that order, too, because there was always the remote possibility that my strongest townread was scum. TWIE would never be scum, so couldn't make the nightkill. Gorkington was probably town but if he WERE scum, he'd be very likely to make the nightkill and thus, be a good jailkeep: if scum, nightkill stopped. If town, nightkill stopped. Admittedly it wouldn't quite be clear if he were scum or the scum's nightkill, but I thought stopping the kill held priority over anything else. And also figured that he'd be likely town anyway, so. That, too.

I suggested a target for Sakura's rolecop as well, but that's not as relevant. I laid out a pretty damn foolproof plan, aside from Sakura being nightkilled by happenstance: If Sakura died post-reveal, then we'd lynch me D3 (because I have absolute zero credibility left), then speedlynch Spiffeh D4, because Spiffeh would be scum stopping a gamebreaking plan.

If Sakura were allowed to live and Spiffeh were scum, it would force the scum to make sub-optimal kill choices, as their top two picks would be protected.
If Sakura were allowed to live and Spiffeh were town, this plan would have basically shut the game out for scum.

I would like to also point out: We fucking know scum bussed.
Ankamius is town. She was the counterwagon to TWO scum.
Creature is town. He was the counterwagon to TWO scum.
There's more to both of those reads than that, of course, but that reversal may surprise you.

TWIE is town. Gorkington is town. Spiffeh and Sakura are town. And I am town.

So...what does that tell you? It tells you the entire scumteam is within Titus, Vifam, Rick, MagnaofIllusion, Majiffy, Yoshi, and Nahdia.
In other words: scum fucking bussed. How much depends on the exact combination. But BOTH REMAINING SCUM bussed AT LEAST ONCE. Possibly twice. (I came to the conclusion it was most likely one scum bussed twice and one scum bussed Vecna without bussing Gin. Because the names on Gin not on Vecna are all town; the names on neither wagon are all town.)

The notable reversal here is Titus: I can believe that Titus would break from her established scum meta and bus once. She's done it before. She hates bussing, but she knows when it can be useful. She's not stupidly suicidal enough to bus her two fucking strongest power roles KNOWING what's in the town. Yet she was on both scum wagons. She is therefore town.

That places the objective scum pool as Vifam/Rick/MagnaofIllusion/Majiffy/Yoshi/Nahdia.

Subjectively, remove names from there as you see fit.
I can't read Rick worth a damn, but I really really really want to fucking trust that SAD could.
I did some pair analysis during the night and the names standing out the most were Vifam, Majiffy, and MoI, with Majiffy/MoI looking as a particularly appetizing pair.

Right now Majiffy's actually the strongest personal scumread of mine, but to be honest I'll vote anyone outside of: Titus/Rick/Sakura/Ankamius/Creature/TWIE/Spiffeh.

The game is massively a POE fest at this point. We're going to show the scum exactly why bussing is a fucking stupid idea, because basically, they've autolossed because they did.

[mastina]

Actually, it only just occurred to me; that's now

two

mafia roles we've seen that mastina's inventions on would be a guilty. Seems fairly powerful without even knowing the other scum roles.

The mafia

might

have the track-invent. MIGHT. (The jailkeep-invent is pure town. The watch-invent is pure town. And my invent I know is town. So IF there is a scum in the inventors, it is the track-invent. There's bundleloads of reasons for this, but I have to stress the "IF" here as important because it is not an assured thing the scum own that invention.)

But if the mafia have another power role which isn't an inventor, I'm calling Antihero a fucking hypocrite.

He loathes stacked scum in small games.

So I am trusting in him to not have three scum roles in the game,

unless

said third scum role is the tracker-inventor. And EVEN THEN, that is not a definitive thing. Most likely, the remaining scum are either both goons, or a goon and the tracker-inventor. (I'm not quite sure. I go back and forth on my setup spec, really depends on the exact balance; I haven't sat down and really crunched the numbers and thought things through.)

But yes. At this stage. My role is pretty useless. I now understand why it was given to a town player. (Catching half the scumteam makes it a pretty effective cop, no?) But I also don't think it's going to be of much use. IF the tracker-inventor is scum, then the rolecop could catch them. But that's only an 'if'.

[mastina]

You and me need to have a less long winded chat.

Howsabouts a direct quote (modified to be directly to you) from me for a start?

I'll listen to you, but I think you've done as much damage to the scumteam as you are going to do this game. If you want to lynch Vifam, then I might sheep you because sure why the fuck not. If you want to lynch me, not so much. If you wants to lynch someone else in my unlynchables, I won't. If you wants to lynch someone not in the list above, then sure I'll sheep you.

This, referring to the names in 5195: I am not lynching Sakura/Ankamius/Creature/TWIE/Spiffeh/Rick. (Rick is admittedly not the same as the others in the regard that it's not actually my read.)

If you want to lynch any of the players outside that list (that being, any of MoI/Vifam/Majiffy/Yoshi/Nahdia), then I will follow you. I have

ideas

. Namely,

Nahdia is now semi-clear based on my vca eyeballing.

My eyeball said much the same.

But no steadfast hard rule.
Fuck I'm probably going to vote either Vifam or Majiffy today.

[mastina]

They both suggested to watch or jailkeep gorkington but i didn't see it until this morning orz.

Technically, Spiffeh agreed with my suggestion rather than separately suggesting it himself, albeit firmer in his opinion of jailing Gorkington than I was.

[mastina]

Rather shocked at Gork dying over me unless scum feared a doctor.

I mean.
One of the reasons that I'd be a good lynch.
Is that for all of my being wrong about the lynches.
I can be so fucking smug about nailing the nightkills.
N1 I knew SAD was going to die.
N2 I knew Gorkington was going to die. (Well, close enough to it. I said scum would be suicidal to target TWIE and that Gorkington was a top choice.)

Me knowing who was going to die and rubbing it in your faces is totally something I'd do as scum.
Because no fucking shit Gorkington was going to die. He was the obvious choice.

[mastina]

I wouldn't be surprised if Vecna was bussed by both his buddies based on his self-hammer.

Vecna - 8 (MagnaofIllusion, Majiffy, Titus, BigYoshiFan, Nahdia, Vifam, Rick and Andrea, Vecna)

...Not a bad assumption. This is basically the lynchpool, actually. (Though I exclude Titus thanks to the sheer improbability of fucking TITUS of all people double-bussing two strong scum players.)

[mastina]

Mastina needs to talk to me.

Won't be much to talk about.

I mostly said this in my neighborhood during the night, but. I can and will defend my defense of Gin--I was justified in not wanting Gin lynched because it was too soon to lynch Gin.

There's no such excuse, no such justification, for Vecna.

I was wrong.

Now.
I wasn't entirely wrong, mind you.
No fucking shit I'm going to think the wagon on scum is scumdriven if all the fucking scum are on it. Vecna was bussed by BOTH his scumbuddies. Gin was bussed by AT LEAST TWO scumbuddies (Vecna, plus one unflipped), possibly all fucking three.
I am a bit spiteful. I came up with the gamebreaking plan in part just to show the scum why they are fucked because they bussed to prove just how fucking stupid bussing is and why they should never have done it.

I have ideas for who the scum are.
But no hardfast rules, except that there's only six possible scum. You're not one of them. You caught two scum. I'm skeptical of you catching a third, yet alone, the whole team. That post I mentioned included you pursuing Gorkington as something I wouldn't back you on, for instance. You're not going to find scum by looking at me. You're going to find scum within the six other names on the Vecna wagon. I don't want to lynch Rick. Not today at the very least. That'd still leave one more scum in them. You don't think it's Nahdia. I vaguely agree with you.

So you name a name in Majiffy/MoI/Vifam/Yoshi.
I'll vote them.

Because that's where the scum are. At least one. Two, if Rick/Nahdia are both town. And if you're in there, then you're in the right zone. And I'll follow you there.
But that's where you'd need to go to still be right. Otherwise, you'll be wrong.

[mastina]

If we lynch scum today, we can just jailkeep her.

That would be slightly sub-optimal.
The scum can afford to no-kill to frame a player exactly once.
If they want to frame a player, the best player to frame would be me, because I am a power role.
Admittedly, probably one which has lost most of its utility (save the possibility of a scum tracker).
But still a power role all the same.

I mean. If scum chose to let me be conftown. I wouldn't exactly be opposed to the idea.

But realistically.
Of all the high-priority jailkeeps.
I'm one of the worst ones.

We should be jailing people who:
-Are strong town players (if they get conftowned)
-Yet are not a loss when lynched (if they get framed)
-Who are within the pool of suspects.

Majiffy would be the top fit for that. MoI might not qualify for the second, but he qualifies for the first and third. Vifam might also fit all three. So would Nahdia. Yoshi fails the first, though he qualifies for second and third.
I'm at the very least role-wise disqualified from the second (because there is the loss, the loss of my role), and depending on your stance, disqualified from the first and/or third.

I don't have much to offer the town, except strategizing optimal usage of power roles.

If the tracker-inventor is town, I think a much better usage of roles would be to have them hand the track out to town, and have

town

track me. I can't be both a rolecop-inventor and track-immune, so if I made a kill the track would catch me.
If the tracker-inventor is scum, well then. That's your scum inventor, which would auto-clear me.

Basically. If we lynch scum today, then we have EITHER:
-JK/Watch/Rolecop/Tracker
OR
-JK/Watch/Rolecop vs. Tracker.
OR
-JK/Watch/Rolecop (lynched the tracker)

The jailkeep-inventor is town. They hand it out to someone obviously town. The player with the jailkeep uses it offensively, on someone within the remaining five (after the lynch of a sixth).
If the tracker-inventor is town, they hand it out to a player who is obviously town. Said tracker tracks me. If a kill happens, it clears both of us. If a kill does not happen, then lynch the jailkeep target, and repeat. Track me. Jailkeep someone. If a kill happens, it clears us both. If a kill doesn't happen, then scum have given the town a free extra lynch thanks to no nightkill twice. Inevitably, either the jailkeep hits scum, or the scum clears two players.

If the tracker-inventor is scum, they'd want to avoid this. So they wouldn't hand out the invention to a player who is obviously town. As a result, them not handing it out would condemn the tracker inventor as a scumclaim, thereby proving my innocence.

If the tracker inventor is scum and lynched...well, it proves my innocence.

Basically, no matter what, jailkeeping me is sub-optimal. TRACKING me, on the other hand, is optimal. Because, again. I cannot both be an inventor and a track-immune killer. So scum must clear me at some point by making a kill.

[mastina]

so firebringer you think magna hard bussed his strongman right after their ninja got lynched d1?

One.
The scumteam killed OFF the Vecna wagon. Not ON it.
Two. Look at how few names are OFF the Vecna wagon.
Three. Look at who those fucking names are.
TWIE. Spiffeh. Sakura. Creature. Ankamius. And me. Plus the dead Gorkington.
Four. Tell me what that means in terms of scum.

Scum fucking bussed. Both of them.
Literally the only possible team with no Vecna bussers is Ankamius-Creature. If you think that's the scumteam, then lol.

So yes. Scum fucking bussed the strongman. Maybe not Magna specifically. He could be town. But scum did bus there. It's literally impossible for them to have not done so. Why the fuck they bussed, you'll have to ask them postgame because we're going to steamroll them thanks to it.

You're free to moronically mislynch me to further prove my point.
But scum fucking bussed.
And we have thirteen alive. With two scum left. Fuck, go burn through that whole off wagon if you have to. Me, to eleven. Ankamius, to nine. Creature, to seven. One of Sakura/Spiffeh, to five. I guess you can't quite burn through the WHOLE fucking off wagon, but oh well. If you did it'd go prove my point. With one of the off members still alive and two scum left still, you'll know that.

Scum.
fucking.
bussed.

The sooner the town realizes that, the sooner they end the game in a town win. If you realize it today, you can even get a town sweep!

[mastina]

Or that scum thought Sakura was lying. Mastina is obvious proscum at this point.

Okay, Titus.
Exercise.
What roles do we have in the game?
We have a confirmed watch inventor.
TWIE would know where he sent that.
Sakura claimed it during the night.
Sakura also revealed a jailkeeper inventor, but let's give the benefit of the doubt. Let's assume, for some UNGODLY reason. That Sakura would lie about having three fucking inventions when Sakura had less than that. (Mine, which I FUCKING SENT SO I KNOW WHERE IT WENT, at the very least, was sent.)
What does Sakura, as town, gain from lying about holding the watch invent, and/or making shit up about holding a jailkeep invent?
What do scum gain from assuming Sakura is lying?

What history do I have with Sakura? Quite extensive, actually. We've probably played at least a dozen games together, maybe two dozen.
What history do I have with Sakura gambiting? Exactly zero.
Given that I have zero game experience with Sakura gambiting, and yet I have rather extensive experience playing with Sakura, what do you think the LOGICAL CONCLUSION is of me as scum seeing Sakura claim to hold three inventions, one of which I know for sure Sakura does in fact actually have?

[mastina]

I still think Mastina is town, we should lynch Majiffy imo

VOTE: Vifam.

[mastina]

mastina - 2 (Titus, Rick and Andrea)

Hey, Titus.

I spot a problem with your mastina-Rick scumteam theory.
I mean.

Unless you wanna argue that Rick has bussed every member of their scumteam and I've adamantly defended every member of the scumteam.

[mastina]

Mastina: MoI is town

Certainly not impossible!

[mastina]

(Except MoI is town)

I don't seem to get why you think I have so strong an opposition to this idea.

He's in the scumpool, as he should be.
Being in the scum pool does not a scum make. Because the scumpool has six names, for a scumteam which is two. I'd vote MoI. I'd also vote Nahdia. Push come to shove I might even vote Rick. Neither's my top choice though.

[mastina]

Also apparently mastina can perfectly get into the minds of scum from their perspective for night kills but can't see them during the day?

It's actually not that hard.
Like. My thoughts on SAD I'm not sure if I shared or not but I was basically there knowing he was dead come morning. And my thoughts on Gorkington are 100% going to be there in postgame and Spiffeh/Sakura can both verify and basically have already that I said Gorkington was going to be the nightkill.

And the reason I can see the nightkills coming. Is because I can predict scum patterns even if I don't know the specific members of the scumteam. For instance, Majiffy has a killing pattern almost identical to my own. I'd have killed SAD. I'd have killed Gorkington. I made it explicit that I knew one or the other was going to die. And that whichever lived, would die next. So if I would have done it, so too could Majiffy.

He's the easiest example, but he's not the only one. Most of the players in this game have a pretty damn similar nightkill pattern to my own, in fact. They might not use the same reasoning I would. Their logic might be different from my own. But the collective whole of the scumteam is going to, overall, have a high probability of thinking the way I would this game.

The problem lies in BECAUSE so many have that pattern. It's difficult to pin down. Spiffeh would kill SAD/Gorkington, then the other. (Spiffeh in particular had the most reason to kill SAD since SAD had the most doubts on Spiffeh of any member in our 'hood.) So would Sakura. I mentioned Majiffy already. Titus is another who would. (She didn't, because she's town, but she could.) MoI probably would as well. Ankamius definitely would. Nahdia I feel almost certainly kills players identically to how I would. Vifam MIGHT, little harder to tell there. So, too, would TWIE kill Gorkington. I can't speak for Rem/Ram's pattern, nor can I speak for Creature's kill pattern. For that matter, Rick and Yoshi are also unknowns.

But the simple fact is. Spiffeh/Sakura/Majiffy/Titus/MoI/Ankamius/Nahdia/Vifam(/TWIE) all would kill the SAD/Gorkington duo. I would, too, yes. But it's painfully obvious that anyone in the list above would, too. Now, circumstances make the kill less likely. (Namely: Sakura's JK/watch combo being something Sakura didn't have to tell us about; Spiffeh knowing about Sakura's JK/Watch combo; Titus not being a double-busser.) And, fuck. The above are just those who I fucking KNOW would do those kills. ANY of Creature/Rick/Yoshi could potentially also have the same kill pattern.

That doesn't exactly help narrow down the pool for scum, now, does it?

SAD was the obvious choice for the nightkill because he was painfully obviously town and he was a strong, charismatic, reasonable player: even if his reads weren't right, the fact that he was a leader and was good at getting people to work with him was a threat. (Aside from that I think his reads had merit.) He was the town triple-threat incarnate.

Gorkington was the exact fucking same way: He was even more painfully obviously town than SAD was, and was basically a glue of sorts. He was there trying to patch things in a way which would give even pirate mollie a fucking run for her money in terms of mediating, of negotiating. He was a strong town presence, aside from any of his reads. He may or may not have had good reads, but he definitely had the other two parts of the triple-thread.

You'd have to be a blind idiot to not understand why they died. The exact logic of the scumteam I can't predict. The exact members of the team determine the composition of the reasoning more than anything else. But basically this entire fucking playerlist would have made both of those kills. So yes I can see the kills coming. No I can't fucking catch scum just because I see the kills coming, because anybody, basically ANY FUCKING BODY in this game would make those kills. And if anyone would make them, then I gain no information from seeing them dead. Because I knew they were dead men walking already.

Also I didn't argue against Gin's lynch because I thought Gin was town.
I argued against Gin's lynch because I wanted Gin to contribute information. I wanted Gin to give the fucking scumteam away. Gin did not. Because you fucking lynched Gin before that was a possibility. But it WAS going to happen. So damn straight. I will defend that action even in postgame. It was the right fucking move to defend Gin.

Defending Vecna I can, have, and will continue to own up to. I have zero credibility here. But I will take smug satisfaction in wherever I can find it. And being the only fucking one who knows how nightkills work is apparently plenty good solace.

[mastina]

I mostly said this in my neighborhood during the night, but.

Fuckit, have the content directly.

Gorkington is town. TWIE is town. I am trusting both of Spiffeh/Sakura to be town. The only possible scum, literally the

only

possible scum, here are Ankamius and Creature.

Even if you assume one of them is scum, unless you think the scumteam is Ankamius-Creature...scum bussed. Scum bussed a lot. Like. I don't fucking know who the scum bussing are. Nor do I know

why the fuck

the scum bussed AGAIN when it puts them at a severe disadvantage to have done so, and they very realistically could have saved Vecna. But there's literally no explanation here outside of scum bussing.

Like. At least one scum HAD to have bussed. Likely two. (Which yes I realize means Ankamius is likely town.) Vecna would not have self-hammered if his team had nothing to gain from the lynch. Vecna easily could have escaped the noose. He had a counterwagon going, led by some pretty damn strong town players who were avid, very vocally, that he was town. So why the fuck did he self-hammer? The only option is that scum bussed.

Names on both wagons:

Titus, Vifam, Rick, MagnaofIllusion. I believe there is at least one scum in there. Potentially two.

Names on Vecna not on Gin:

Majiffy, Yoshi, Nahdia

Names on Gin not on Vecna:

Spiffeh, Sakura, Creature

Names not on either:

Gorkington, TWIE, Ankamius
I think it's pretty clear the names on Gin not on Vecna are town. Similarly, the only name who could be scum not on either is Ankamius--but that brings into question...if Ankamius is scum, why the fuck did the scum lynch BOTH Gin AND Vecna over Ankamius, a counterwagon to both? There could be a scum inventor as a third power role (but if that were the case, fuck you Antihero for being a fucking hypocrite), but there isn't a scum inventor power in the WORLD which could be stronger than BOTH a nerfed-ninja AND a fucking strongman.

Given this, it's pretty clear Ankamius has to be town, since no sane scumteam would prioritize saving a goon or even a scum inventor over roles like ninja and strongman. So, the names not on either are town. The names on Gin and not on Vecna are town. I'm thinking that the names on Vecna not on Gin include a scum, but at this stage I don't know what the fuck the combinations could be. I still want to trust SAD's townread on Rick to be true.

Titus-MoI feels unlikely for an abundance of reasons.
Titus-Vifam is unlikely given Titus's interactions with Vifam. She might subvert scum meta by bussing, but a triple-bus? I don't see that as viable.
Titus-Majiffy is viable, albeit requiring Titus to double-bus. It's theoretically within her capabilities (she knows her no-bussing meta well enough to subvert it), but I don't think I've ever seen Titus actually double-bus?
Titus-Yoshi is incredibly viable, albeit again requiring Titus to double-bus.
Titus-Nahdia is incredibly unlikely given Nahdia's freak-out to Titus's push; that was no scum theater.

Vifam-MoI is unlikely thanks to Vifam's MoI push.
Vifam-Majiffy is possible I guess, though requires Vifam to not be town.
Vifam-Yoshi is possible, though requires Vifam not being town.
Vifam-Nahdia is possible, though requires Vifam not being town.

MoI-Majiffy is definitely possible.
MoI-Yoshi is incredibly unlikely given Yoshi's push on MoI.
MoI-Nahdia is definitely possible.

Majiffy-Yoshi is possible.
Majiffy-Nahdia is possible.

Yoshi-Nahdia is unlikely, but not impossible.

Loosely in order most to least likely, I'd have something like:
MoI-Majiffy
Majiffy-Yoshi
MoI-Nahdia
Majiffy-Nahdia
Vifam-Majiffy
Vifam-Yoshi
Vifam-Nahdia
MoI-Yoshi
Yoshi-Nahdia
Vifam-MoI
Titus-Yoshi
Titus-Majiffy
Titus-MoI
Titus-Nahdia
Titus-Vifam

But at this point I'm just about ready to accept a quicklynch on my slot and give up on sorting the game because whatever shred of potential credibility I had left is gone and I basically have no interest in pushing. At all. I'm ready to roll over and die. I mean. I won't do nothing. I'll post thoughts. I'll make a vote, on MoI or Majiffy most likely. Maybe Yoshi. But I've lost my will to fight.

Gin I fought against for personal reasons. Vecna I was just wrong about.
And there's no backing out of that. There's no excuses. There's no, "but he wasn't really town to me". He WAS. And I fucked that up by having that read. So I just. Don't have interest in trying to save face. I don't have interest in trying to pretend it wasn't something that it was. I can try to catch scum before my inevitable lynch. I can try to catch scum if for some miracle I escape the noose and can catch scum before the town quicklynches. But it'll be a consolation prize, at best.

Next was a long VCA post that I'd have to clear with Antihero before dumping in here.
But after the VCA post was Sakura's claim.
And then,

(Sakura got literally all the inventions outside the track.)

For the Jailkeep, hands-down I'd go Gorkington. With the scum strongman dead, you can save him.
For the Watch, hands-down watch TheWayItEnds. While I somewhat-doubt scum are going to kill the watcher-inventor, you get to catch them if they are stupid enough to do so. You COULD reverse these two, but they're who I'd think would be the highest priority in keeping alive and/or catching scum killing.

Basically at this stage: if Spiffeh is scum and tells his scumbuddy to kill you, then I will tell the town. We'll 1v1 each other. I'll eat rope, but to lynch Spiffeh it'd be worth it because we're already down two scum so lynching a third even if the town has to mislynch a town power role would be fucking WORTH IT. (And Spiffeh's scum lynch on D4 would bring the game down to one scum, with one of the watch invent/jailkeep invent AT MINIMUM still living, essentially risking the scum being endgamed. So Spiffeh knows how stupid this would be.)

If Spiffeh is scum and tells his scumbuddy not to target either of Gorkington or TWIE, it forces the scum to make sub-optimal nightkills. (I would be totally okay with this!)

If Spiffeh isn't scum, Gorkington/TWIE basically guarantees the scum are fucked unless they nightkill Sakura by pure chance. (Which would help prove the jailkeep inventor was town by the way since scum aren't going to hand out an invention to a player they plan on nightkilling.)
If Spiffeh isn't scum and scum don't luck out by killing Sakura, then we can basically clear this neighborhood, then use this information to potentially force a perfect town win. We get a third scum lynch on D3, then the jailkeep becomes a cop, the track (if it's not scum) becomes a second cop, and we've got a metric fuckton of mislynches with a watch-invent also on hand. (The rolecop becomes superfluous, but hey, it can still be useful albeit marginally.)

There's literally no stopping this combo unless scum have luck of the gods and are outside Spiffeh and kill Sakura. That's literally the one and only way this gets fucked up. Spiffeh is scum, he either outs himself as being scum (and gets lynched D4, leaving scum in a very bad position), or lets Sakura live and is forced to make more sub-optimal nightkills. Spiffeh isn't scum, we become a masonry once Sakura lives to daybreak and can out the results.

(I asked for agreement.)

Basically: Sakura jails one of TWIE/Gorkington, and watches the other. If Sakura dies, I die D3, and Spiffeh dies D4. We explain exactly why we are doing this. If Sakura does not die, then Sakura outs results and we explain exactly what our strategy is. If Sakura finds the jailkeep inventor, outting the result in here and staying silent about it in-thread. (The jailkeep inventor is town.) If Sakura finds the tracker inventor, well...Sakura, that's your judgment call on whether to out or not, because it's your call on whether you think the tracker-inventor is scum or town. (I THINK scum, but I'm not sure. It could go either way.) If Sakura's rolecop is the standard rolecop which can't detect alignment (and therefore, vanilla is the result of both VTs and Goons) and Sakura gets a vanilla result, it should be outed in here and kept secret publicly, as to not tip scum off as to who the not-outed inventor(/s) is(/are).

I mean. Basically at this point. It's a given that scum bussed their two strongest power roles. Your scumteam isn't mastina-Gorkington/mastina-Ankamius/mastina-TWIE. Your scumteam can't be Gorkington-Ankamius, Gorkington-TWIE, or TWIE-Ankamius. Meaning...scum bussed at least once. (I'd wager all of Gorkington/Ankamius/TWIE are town.)

We're going to make them realize just how fucking stupid bussing is and why they're fucked because they did. If Spiffeh is scum who kills Sakura, then he dies D4 and his scumbuddy has a long road ahead of him.

This is something we must emphasize

. If Spiffeh is scum who decides not to kill Sakura, then his scumteam is forced to make sub-optimal plays the entire game because as long as we can continue to coordinate inventions, we can force scum to make moves that are less-than ideal.

If Spiffeh is town, the only possible scum on Gin not on Vecna is Creature. Ankamius (off both)/Creature(off Vecna) is an incredibly unlikely scumteam, given both have been rival wagons to the flipped scum. That leaves scum most likely being in Majiffy, Yoshi, Nahdia (Vecna only), Titus, Vifam, Rick, and MagnaofIllusion (both). Titus I doubt would double-bus.

That narrows it down to Majiffy/Yoshi/Nahdia(Vecna)/Vifam/Rick/MagnaofIllusion(both).
I'm not absolutely sure there's one scum in each category. But I'd call it pretty high probability there's one scum in each of those categories, and not more.

My lynch order, highest to lowest, would be:
Majiffy
MagnaofIllusion
Vifam
Yoshi
Nahdia
Rick

...But with the inventions we have in the game, we're likely going to PLOW through that list. (I'd recommend against using the jailkeep offensively until we're down to one scum alive, because predicting who makes the kill is harder than predicting who will BE killed.)

Depending on the owners of the inventions we haven't found, we might be able to narrow this list down even further and make the game essentially an autowin. Scum fucked up. Big time. I might need to die at some point to

prove

scum fucked up big time (that being, to prove that I am not scum being outplayed), but this is one reason why I suggested the jailkeep on Gorkington: should it be the case that literally my strongest townread was scum, then stopping him from making the kill is likely. (I don't see TWIE as scum, ever, which is why the watch is slightly better in my opinion on him.)

(Yes I'm a bit bitter. My scumhunting methods rely on the fundamental assumption that scum have some semblance of self-preservation in mind. They, very clearly, did not. There's literally no fucking scumteam possible where the scum haven't bussed at least once. Fuck, it's not even likely for there to be a scumteam that only bussed Gin, who was the more acceptable of the two busses. And even further, it's not exactly the most probable for there to be a scumteam which only bussed Vecna! Scum bussed, likely with one member doing so twice. And I am NOT happy that they did so because no fucking shit scum leading a wagon on scum is going to fuck up my analysis, it's borderline playing against wincon so now I'm a woman scorned and I want to fucking SHOW them why the fuck they should not have done that because it pisses me off.)

(So yes. I am going to catch scum. And it will be out of fucking SPITE. Fuck finding scum for a wincon, this shit's on principle now.)

[mastina]

Is mastina operating under some weird assumption that if she wasn't on the wagon it had to be all scum and driven by scum?

I'm operating under the assumption that:
2-3 scum were on Gin;
3 scum were on Vecna.

Because I'm actually fucking paying attention to the names off the wagons and how they just don't make sense as a scumteam.

[mastina]

Mastina, be less wordy.

No.

Either read my fucking words.
Or stop pretending you're going to listen.

I'm not going to state them again.
Read my posts.

I'm done talking further.

No rehash.

You don't want to read it, then that's on you.
You read it and then you still want to engage me, come back.

You fucking ASKED me to talk to you.
I fucking talked to you.
So if you have a problem with me fucking talking to you.
Then fuck off.
I talked to you. Go look at what I talked to you about.

[mastina]

5195. 5206. 5207. 5214. 5215. 5217. 5218. 5219. 5221. 5223. 5225. 5226.

You read those.
None of my other posts matter.
And I have nothing else to say until you have read them.

[mastina]

For what it's worth I'd probably be scumreading Rick right now if I had interest in scumreading them.

What was your basis in thinking SAD was killed for his reads?

5209, 5225.

What was this "scum tell" you had on me?

To be honest, don't remember at the moment. I could probably force myself to remember it if I wanted to. But it's obviously not as true as I thought. If it did hold any validity though. I wouldn't share it. So between currently not remembering it, it apparently not being relevant, and it not being something I'd want to share if it happens to have truth to it. I'm still not sharing, sorry.

Can you go into more detail into why exactly you were scumreading me in the first place?

Combination of VCA, POE, then going back to read past games of yours. Oh, and I thought you were the tracker-inventor which I thought was a scum role, so. That played a big fucking huge part. (Spiffeh and Sakura can confirm that I conveyed as much to them in the neighborhood.)

[mastina]

Mastina, there is talking to me and talking

at me

.

Yes. Something I fucking know better than anyone else and would have shared with you a lecture about if not for certain circumstances.

I know the fucking difference between the two.

And I have told you.
READ THE FUCKING POSTS I LINKED.
IGNORE THE OTHERS.
I am FUCKING TELLING YOU.
Which posts I am talking to you.
I have told you to fucking ignore the posts which were talking at.

AND YOU.
AREN'T.
READING THEM.

So no.
No more.
You have my content. It's there when you bother to read it.

5195. 5206. 5207. 5214. 5215. 5217. 5218. 5219. 5221. 5223. 5225. 5226.

You read those.
None of my other posts matter.
And I have nothing else to say until you have read them.

The fact is something has been wrong in your process.

1955, 1956, 1958, 1964, 1970, 2008,

2267

, 2280, 2543,

2572

,

2575

, 2871,

2940

, 3032, maybe others.

I am wanting to hear you

5195. 5206. 5207. 5214. 5215. 5217. 5218. 5219. 5221. 5223. 5225. 5226.

[mastina]

Do you really think what you're seeing here is my scum game?

Frankly I don't give a damn.

[mastina]

Are you not scum reading me when you have said multiple times that PoE puts me in the scum piles?

He's in the scumpool, as he should be.

Being in the scum pool does not a scum make.

Because the scumpool has six names, for a scumteam which is two. I'd vote MoI. I'd also vote Nahdia. Push come to shove I might even vote Rick. Neither's my top choice though.

[mastina]

And Mastina your bus theory is back-asswards. It's more likely there are MORE scum on the Gin wagon than there are on the Vecna wagon. You have your reads inverted regarding wagon analysis.

Fuck arbitrary calls.

The reason I'm making this call is because of this.

TheRealGin-N-Tonic - 9 (Vifam, Spiffeh, Rick and Andrea, Sakura Hana, Titus,

Vecna

, MagnaofIllusion, Creature,

Ser Arthur Dayne

)

Creature - 4 (

Rem and Ram

, Majiffy, BigYoshiFan, mastina)
Rem and Ram - 2 (Nahdia,

Gorkington

)
Ser Arthur Dayne - 1 (Ankamius)
Not Voting:

TheRealGin-N-Tonic

The names OFF OF GIN: Ankamius/Nahdia/Majiffy/Yoshi. Plus a dead Gorkington. Oh, and Rem/TWIE, who're town. You have one scum on Gin, in the form of Vecna.

Vecna - 8 (MagnaofIllusion, Majiffy, Titus, BigYoshiFan, Nahdia, Vifam, Rick and Andrea,

Vecna

)

BigYoshiFan - 4 (Sakura Hana, mastina, Ankamius, Creature)
Not Voting:

Gorkington

,

TheWayItEnds

Ankamius - 1 (Spiffeh)

The names OFF OF VECNA: Ankamius/Sakura/Creature/Spiffeh. Oh and a dead Gorkington. Plus TWIE, who's town.

Sakura Hana is not scum, not with the claim and play.
Spiffeh is not scum, not with how last night went.
TWIE is not scum.
I am not scum.
So short of an Ankamius-Creature scumteam.

There has to be AT LEAST TWO SCUM ON VECNA. (Vecna + partner.) THREE, if you view Ankamius/Creature as both town. Three scum of THREE mind you.

Scum fucking bussed. And bussed heavily.

[mastina]

Can you go into more detail into why exactly you were scumreading me in the first place?

Combination of VCA, POE,

then going back to read past games of yours.

Oh, and I thought you were the tracker-inventor which I thought was a scum role, so. That played a big fucking huge part. (Spiffeh and Sakura can confirm that I conveyed as much to them in the neighborhood.)

...But where does this fit in, exactly?

Holy fucking shit I isoed Ankamius and yeah she's scum. Like. I'm almost positive of this, for a multitude of reasons. Scum positioning, scum posting, just general gut reaction to her posting, her attitude, what she's doing, critically what she's NOT doing, who she's pushing or rather who she's NOT pushing, all of it. She's scum.

[mastina]

You told me multiple times over multiple games you have fence sitting on players.' So what do you want to call me?

Not quite sure what you mean. If you're asking,
"You fence sit on players. What is your read on me?"
My answer is: not on the fence. Just not even bothering to read.

Multiple games you've insisted I can't read you.

Hey surprise.
The message actually got through!
So I'm not going to try.

[mastina]

I don't understand why ISOing me this game relates to reading past games of mine.

I don't see how you can't see it?
They go hand-in-hand.

You're taking predetermined reads that are not confirmed and using them to inform your VCA

The thing is those predetermined reads exist for damn fucking good reason.
TWIE's role is not scum.
TWIE's play is not scum.
Rem's play was not scum.

Spiffeh if scum does NOT kill Gorkington with Sakura's claim.
Sakura is incredibly unlikely to make this play if scum.

Ankamius and Creature both have VCA-related reasons to be town aside from play. So the VCA is consistent. It consistently says they're not scum, least of all as a scumteam.

Given that, it's obvious.
Scum fucking bussed.

Something doesn't feel right, here.

That would be because scum fucking bussed.

[mastina]

Oh, and Anti cleared me for doing this.

Spoiler: Last Night VCA*

Blue = soft-clear via role/play.
Cyan = weaker clear, off of circumstance.

MagnaofIllusion,

Vecna

,

Creature

, Marquis/Nahdia
Rick and Andrea, Majiffy,

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

,

Gorkington

Voices of Truth/Titus

,

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, BigYoshiFan, Vifam

Sakura Hana

,

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

, kuror0/mastina,

Spiffeh

Just going by this, I'd say that there's a high probability of Majiffy/Yoshi/Vifam containing a minimum of one scum, probably two, though MoI/Nahdia are not impossible. (Albeit an incredibly unlikely duo to be scum together--it's possible one is, but incredibly unlikely two are. Regardless, I'd lynch MoI before Nahdia in a heartbeat because MoI being scum would at least partially explain the need for the neighborhoods to be public.)

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

- 5 (BigYoshiFan, Majiffy,

Voices of Truth/Titus, Creature, Sakura Hana

)

Voices of Truth/Titus

- 3 (Marquis/Nahdia,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

)

Ser Arthur Dayne

- 2 (

Vecna

,

Spiffeh

)

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

- 1 (Rick and Andrea)

Creature

- 1 (

Rem and Ram

)
Rick and Andrea - 1 (

Gorkington

)

Sakura Hana

- 1 (Vifam)

So. Question: Rem is town. The later voters are all town. Where are the scum? On Titus, we have a scum, so it's unlikely there's another, reducing the odds slightly of Nahdia being scum. Similarly, Spiffeh is probably town since it is doubtful he would vote back-to-back with a scumbuddy on SAD. Also, Rick looks good with this early vote on scum.

Interestingly: with a scum on Titus, and a scum on SAD, you're left wondering: where are the scum?
Yoshi/Majiffy are possible, albeit unlikely to be scum together. If you combine the (1) voters, you get a wagon of four, and the weakest townread in there would be Vifam.
So at this stage, you get: Yoshi-Majiffy, Yoshi-Vifam, Yoshi-MoI (unlikely), Majiffy-Vifam, Majiffy-MoI, and Vifam-MoI as likely scumteams.
Nahdia remains a wildcard, albeit at reduced odds of being scum.

Ser Arthur Dayne

- 4 (

Spiffeh

, MagnaofIllusion,

Sakura Hana

, Rick and Andrea)

Voices of Truth/Titus

- 4 (Marquis/Nahdia,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

, Vifam)

Creature

- 3 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

,

Gorkington

, Majiffy)

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

- 3 (BigYoshiFan,

Voices of Truth/Titus, Creature

)
Not Voting: kuror0/mastina,

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

,

Vecna

So here, we've got two 4 wagons and three 3 wagons. On the four wagons, you've got possible scum as MoI/Nahdia/Vifam. As illustrated above (I mean it's

possible

Antihero with true randomness landed three scum in a single neighborhood, but incredibly unlikely), MoI/Nahdia is doubtful. Nahdia/Vifam is less-than-likely, because that would mean scum REALLY wanted Titus dead. As a result, IF there are two scum here, it would be MoI-Vifam. Otherwise, there is a maximum of one.

Now, when it comes to the three 3 wagons, you've got Majiffy/Yoshi as possible scum, with Vecna as confirmed scum on the third. Appealing as the symmetry idea would be of having each 3 wagon have one scum on it (thereby meaning Majiffy-Yoshi are scum and all of MoI/Nahdia/Vifam are town), it is somewhat doubtful, making this pair unlikely. It is possible both would be town if MoI-Vifam is the scumteam, but most likely, you have one scum here. This places the probable teams as:
MoI-Vifam (less likely), MoI-Yoshi (unlikely), MoI-Majiffy, Nahdia-Yoshi (slightly less likely), Nahdia-Majiffy (slightly less likely), Vifam-Yoshi, and Vifam-Majiffy.

Ser Arthur Dayne

- 6 (

Spiffeh

, MagnaofIllusion,

Sakura Hana

, Rick and Andrea,

Voices of Truth/Titus

,

Gorkington

)

Voices of Truth/Titus

- 4 (Marquis/Nahdia,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

, Vifam)
Not Voting: kuror0/mastina,

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

,

Vecna

Creature

- 2 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy)

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

- 2 (BigYoshiFan,

Creature

)

So it's a little difficult to believe that this SAD wagon happened without scum present, which would reflect very negatively against MoI. (Fuck, I'm pretty sure at this stage he's likely scum who will endgame you as a further credit to his worthiness for Don Corelone but what do I know, I'm the moron who defended two scum.)

The numbers here otherwise don't change. There's two 2 wagons, in which Majiffy/Yoshi are the only possible scum. Most likely, one of them is scum and the other, town. In Not Voting, Vecna was scum. On Titus, we've got Nahdia/Vifam in which you'd expect a maximum of one scum.

At this stage, that really places the teams I'd most be making a callout as MoI-Majiffy, Vifam-Yoshi, or Vifam-Majiffy. (Other teams being possible, but less likely.)

Creature

- 4 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy,

Voices of Truth/Titus

,

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

)

Voices of Truth/Titus

- 4 (Marquis/Nahdia,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Creature, Sakura Hana

)

Vecna

- 2 (Vifam, Rick and Andrea)
Not Voting: kuror0/mastina,

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

- 1 (

Gorkington

)

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

- 1 (BigYoshiFan)

Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)

Ser Arthur Dayne

- 1 (MagnaofIllusion)
Steven Quartz - 1 (

Vecna

)

So here, in the two dueling town wagons, we have one scum in the form of Gin's slot, then we have Majiffy/Nahdia as unflipped. The rest are all town.

In the two (2) voters, we have Vifam as the only possible scum.
In the impressive five (1) voters, we have Yoshi/MoI, with Vecna as flipped scum.

Yoshi/MoI becomes almost an impossible combination from this, as does Majiffy/Nahdia. (Albeit, not quite as strongly.)

Majiffy-Vifam, Majiffy-MoI, Vifam-Yoshi, and Vifam-MoI are again the teams which stand out.

Creature

- 4 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy,

Voices of Truth/Titus

,

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

)

Vecna

- 4 (Vifam,

Sakura Hana

, MagnaofIllusion,

Gorkington

)

Voices of Truth/Titus

- 3 (Marquis/Nahdia,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Creature

)
Not Voting:

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

, kuror0/mastina

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

- 1 (Rick and Andrea)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (

Vecna

)

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

- 1 (BigYoshiFan)

Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)

So here we have the Vecna and Creature wagons dueling. Creature's town, Vecna's scum. You've got Vecna and Yoshi in the (1) voters--having half the scumteam there with a scum player in danger seems a bit unlikely, which slightly reduces the odds of Yoshi being scum.

Majiffy has a slightly increased chance of being scum as well. Interestingly, unless the scumteam is: Majiffy-Nahdia, Majiffy-Yoshi, or Nahdia-Yoshi...scum bussed Vecna. I find it doubtful two scum would bus, vastly reducing the odds of it being MoI-Vifam. However, one being scum is basically assured.

So, Majiffy-Vifam, Majiffy-MoI, Vifam-Yoshi.

Creature

- 5 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy,

Voices of Truth/Titus

,

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

, BigYoshiFan)

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

- 4 (

Sakura Hana

,

Gorkington

,

Vecna

, Rick and Andrea)

Voices of Truth/Titus

- 3 (Marquis/Nahdia,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

)

Vecna

- 2 (Vifam, MagnaofIllusion)
BigYoshiFan - 1 (

Creature

)

Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)

Not Voting: kuror0/mastina

Interestingly, we go from having a nearly-guaranteed bus on Vecna to a certified guaranteed bus on Gin's slot. I sincerely doubt there was more than one scum there, though that doesn't really tell us much. Still, all the same: there's no scum in the (1) voters. The only possible scum are Majiffy, Yoshi, Nahdia, Vifam, and MoI. Vifam-MoI is incredibly unlikely. Majiffy-Yoshi is also unlikely.

Creature

- 4 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy, BigYoshiFan,

Gorkington

)

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

- 2 (

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Creature

)

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

- 2 (

Sakura Hana

, Rick and Andrea)
MagnaofIllusion - 2 (

Vecna

, Vifam)
BigYoshiFan - 1 (mastina)
mastina - 1 (

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

)

Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)

Vecna

- 1 (MagnaofIllusion)
Vifam - 1 (

Voices of Truth/Titus

)

Voices of Truth/Titus

- 1 (

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

)
Not Voting: Nahdia

So with the wagons on scum disintegrated, we get an explosion in (1) voters--this is no coincidence. Majiffy/Yoshi remain an unlikely team, though one could be scum. The only possible scum in the three (2) wagons is Vifam (plus the flipped Vecna), though there is the question of whether the two scum would vote together. Then in the (1) voters, you get MoI and Nahdia as literally the only possibilities.

Majiffy-MoI is looking like an awfully appealing scumteam. All the others run into number problems.

Creature

- 3 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy, BigYoshiFan)

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

- 2 (

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Creature

)
BigYoshiFan - 2 (mastina,

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

)
MagnaofIllusion - 2 (

Vecna

, Vifam)

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

- 2 (

Sakura Hana

, Rick and Andrea)
mastina - 1 (

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

)

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

- 1 (

Gorkington

)

Sakura Hana - 1 (Spiffeh)

Ser Arthur Dayne

- 1 (MagnaofIllusion)
Vifam - 1 (

Voices of Truth/Titus

)
Not Voting: Nahdia

So we now have eight (2) voters. In them, we've got one confirmed scum, with the only other possible scum sharing that same wagon. This doesn't outright eliminate Vifam, mind you. But it does make Majiffy-MoI, Majiffy-Nahdia, Yoshi-MoI, and Yoshi-Nahdia look awfully appetizing. Oh, and Yoshi-MoI has that strong evidence indicating that's not the scumteam. At this stage, Majiffy-MoI continues to just...fit.

Creature

- 5 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy, BigYoshiFan,

Voices of Truth/Titus

,

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

)

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

- 4 (

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Creature

,

Spiffeh

, Rick and Andrea)
BigYoshiFan - 2 (mastina,

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

)

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

- 2 (

Gorkington

, Nahdia)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (

Vecna

)

Ser Arthur Dayne

- 1 (MagnaofIllusion)

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

- 1 (

Sakura Hana

)
Not Voting: Vifam

So. Scum had dueling town wagons here. They didn't give a damn who got lynched. There's no scum in the (2) voters, outside possibly Nahdia. there's no scum on the Ankamius wagon. The only possible scum are on the Creature wagon are Majiffy/Yoshi. There's MoI/Vifam in the Not Voting.

Majiffy-MoI, Majiffy-Vifam, Majiffy-Nahdia, Yoshi-MoI, Yoshi-Vifam, Yoshi-Nahdia, Nahdia-MoI, Nahdia-Vifam. All possible from this, but prior results make some more likely than others.

color=blue]Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds[/color] - 6 (Nahdia,

Creature

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Sakura Hana

, Rick and Andrea, Vifam)

Creature

- 5 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy, BigYoshiFan, mastina,

Voices of Truth/Titus

)

Ser Arthur Dayne

- 2 (MagnaofIllusion,

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

)
Not Voting:

Gorkington

,

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius - 1 (Spiffeh)

MagnaofIllusion - 1 (

Vecna

)

Scum REALLY didn't care who got lynched. Nahdia/Vifam as only possible scum on that wagon, and Majiffy/Yoshi only possible scum on Creature. MoI is the only possible scum in the two (2) wagons.

I'm pretty sure that at this point, scum were largely avoiding being on the major wagons. The town was lynching itself--there was no need to force any one wagon through. So, Nahdia-Majiffy, Nahdia-Yoshi, Nahdia-MoI, Vifam-Majiffy, Vifam-Yoshi, Vifam-MoI, Majiffy-MoI, Yoshi-MoI. All possible, but prior results make some more likely.

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

- 6 (Vifam,

Spiffeh

, Rick and Andrea,

Sakura Hana, Titus

,

Vecna

)

Creature

- 5 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy, BigYoshiFan, mastina, MagnaofIllusion)

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

- 4 (Nahdia,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Gorkington

,

Creature

)

Ser Arthur Dayne

- 1 (

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

)
Not Voting:

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

So. We have the explosion in the Gin wagon. We know there was one scum bussing. But interesting is that MoI switched to the Creature wagon. Off the wagon, you've got possible teams of Majiffy-Yoshi (unlikely, thanks to the long-standing pairing), Majiffy-MoI, Majiffy-Nahdia, Yoshi-MoI (unlikely), Yoshi-Nahdia, and MoI-Nahdia.
On the wagon, you get Vifam-Majiffy, Vifam-MoI, Vifam-Nahdia (unlikely), and Vifam-Yoshi.

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

- 9 (Vifam,

Spiffeh

, Rick and Andrea,

Sakura Hana, Titus

,

Vecna

, MagnaofIllusion,

Creature

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

)

Creature

- 4 (

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

, Majiffy, BigYoshiFan, mastina)

Rem and Ram/TheWayItEnds

- 2 (Nahdia,

Gorkington

)

Ser Arthur Dayne

- 1 (

Stephen Quartz/Ankamius

)
Not Voting:

beeboy/TheRealGin-N-Tonic

And here. Here. Possible off-scum combos become Majiffy-Yoshi (unlikely), Majiffy-Nahdia, Yoshi-Nahdia.

You basically have to assume that there's another scum on the wagon, placing the pressure on Vifam and MoI. But unlikely to be both.

(*Updated with Gorkington's flip but otherwise unedited from what I had in the PT.)

[mastina]

Why exactly would they bus?

I don't fucking know.
But I'm not scum.
And if you're not scum.
And TWIE isn't scum.

Then that means there's nobody who was off both that could be scum.

Meaning, that every fucking scum player bussed at least once in the game.
Every fucking scum player. Bussed at least once in the game. Except bee/Gin. (Unless Creature is scum in which case yes literally EVERY fucking scum slot bussed scum, at least once in the game.)

If Spiffeh were scum, he bussed Gin. If Sakura were scum, Sakura bussed Gin. If Creature were scum, Creature bussed Gin.
If Vifam were scum, he bussed twice. If Rick were scum, they bussed twice. If Titus was scum, she bussed twice. Vecna in a sense bussed twice. If MoI were scum, he bussed twice.
If Majiffy is scum, he bussed Vecna. If Yoshi is scum, he bussed Vecna. If Nahdia is scum, Nahdia bussed Vecna.

No matter what.

You have to go in.
Assuming scum fucking bussed.

So it's not a question of "why would they bus?". We know they did! There's no denying they fucking bussed. Because they fucking did. It's figuring out WHO bussed. We'll learn their reasons postgame. We'll learn why they thought it was a good idea after the game is over. But there's no use asking, except for academic purposes, why they did--we fucking KNOW they did. It's just who.

[mastina]

I'm the jailkeep inventor

I buy it.
I also see this as town.
It's a little unfortunate that you got outed I suppose. But it does narrow the pool down because I believe you WERE in a fair number of people's lynch pools.

VOTE: Majiffy.
Not that my vote will do much here.