Real Folk Blues Rematch [GAME OVER]

[Cerberus v666]

What he's described as the answers to how things would work is still different from how jj said they'd work.

[Cerberus v666]

@smith: do you find it likely that a blue scum team is gunsmith immune as a whole, or do you simply think that carnelian fake claimed miller as a partially investigative immune member of the same scum team where I'm also gunsmith immune?

[Cerberus v666]

Hey dave, I'd really appreciate some broad strokes thoughts from you. Overarching setup thoughts, most likely town/scum opinion, and preferred lynch/vig would be great to hear.

[Cerberus v666]

Why is the fact that you believe it's unlikely ari is a particular brand of scum even relevant, to your worldview? I get that to those who think we're talking about singleball with sk, your point(which is basically meaningless, because it's also likely that someone who wasn't super invested in the game whose entire team was crushed, leaving them as the last hope, would feel too overwhelmed to feel they could do their slot justice), means that he can't be scum(though also, in that universe, he's not as alone and thus less likely to replace out because of an inability to carry the game, and more likely to replace out because hthe act of replacing out isn't going to possibly make his team lose, so it's mostly null still), to YOU the possibility that he's blue scum should make your thoughts on his being red scum irrelevant as far as clearing him is concerned.

[Cerberus v666]

I actually agree with smith about the value of checking wheme btw. I think the only way wheme is scum is as a blue traitor. I can easily see the fake miller claim as a way of signaling to your team+making it unlikely either team would shoot at you. So, I don't think using a gunsmith on him actually removes any of the scenarios where he's actually scum.

[Cerberus v666]

vote: aristophanes

i might try to case this tonight if i have time.
i think me butting heads with smith about what we think the setup is probably me being dumb and not accepting that someone else having a conception of what the setup is to such a strong degree as possible.

kind of got into the same headspace with nacho in king's landing and im thinking i need to step back from that.
frustration from smith here reads pretty genuine.

I don't know of it reads genuine, but I was thinking this morning that I'm no longer sure if I'm pushing smith because he's the best option, or because I want to "win" this exchange by getting my way, and am not willing to risk giving up on the push in case I was right the whole time.

I feel that things are polarized enough around smith that a scum flip from him practically solvea the rest of the game, but I might just be being optimistic, and idk what a town flip from him accomplishes for us.

It rubs me very wrong, in a very visceral sense, that smith predicated his exclusion from being a vig shot option upon where flipping blue scum, when wheme is, if scum, almost certainly the slot blue scum can most afford to lose given the risky miller claim+likelihood that it's a traitor slot anyways.

I just don't know. :/ The best thing we could do, for the overall game state, is put aristophanes to l-1, give intent to hammer, and stall while the mods find a replacement for gamma, since aristo will be lynched, but I don't know if that's practical, or even wise.

[Cerberus v666]

Titus, that's why I said I'd if it's practical. Like, if we put him to l-1 and I PM the mod and post here that I will always hammer him and they shouldn't bother replacing him, are they allowed to just skip replacing him? :/

[Cerberus v666]

Oooh

Vote:Wheme

I should really pay attention

*sigh* except the other game had only 5 syndicate in it, and this game almost certainly has at least six.....which means making these assumptions about the setup is dumb.

[Cerberus v666]

Scum who fake claimed miller, then doubled down on it by claiming their actual scum flavor?

[Cerberus v666]

Smith seems to be willing to defend him, but I don't think he strongly townreads him.

Let's talk about who we'd want gammas replacement to shoot in the ari lynch scenario.

[Cerberus v666]

Dave, are you deliberately ignoring my previous question?

[Cerberus v666]

Don't think it matters. High probability he dies tonight, and his targets have all been within the obvious pool of most likely shots. I think hearing his thoughts has value. Which is why I asked for them..

[Cerberus v666]

Oh wait
I can shoot during the day too
EHUEHUEHUEHUEHUEHUEHUEHUEHUE

What do you mean?

[Cerberus v666]

Aristo and wheme would have been the best shots, most likely, assuming that shot is real. Wheme because miller policy, and Aristo because he's a likely a compromise since we have your slot filled now.

[Cerberus v666]

Damnit Narna, what is it with people blowing up shit I'm doing??? *sigh*

I'd have much rather had him confirm that was a legitimate shot attempt than had you show up and give him cover for what could have easily just been an sk fucking up his fake claim.

[Cerberus v666]

Damnit Narna, what is it with people blowing up shit I'm doing??? *sigh*

I'd have much rather had him confirm that was a legitimate shot attempt than had you show up and give him cover for what could have easily just been an sk fucking up his fake claim.

We have what? A day to find a lynch? It felt like a waste of time for town to get confused on this and wait for a flip. Isn't the sk supposedly bioterror? But yeah, whoops. It still looks like a real attempt to me. I just figured they didn't know their shot was used. My bad, we cool?

-Narna

There was no chance he was gonna get lynched, I just wanted that shit all official like, without his excuse being spoon fed to him.


Two sks+ a large team is also quite viable, so that slot is far from cleared.

[Cerberus v666]

Anyways. So, compromise Aristo, DrC shoots wheme *or* smith? Reasonable and informative pairing of potential kills? I LD Insomniacs or Vedith. Titus gunsmiths idk who.

[Cerberus v666]

GunSmith within random/ginngie/S&R/MV? Pick a pair, and go with them? And our bus driver and doctors make their choices with this information known?

[Cerberus v666]

Bad associatives with flipped scum, beetlejuicing prior to today, attempt to state that he shouldn't be an option for being shot if wheme flipped scum, when wheme is the most bussable slot in the game if scum. Those are also the two wagons that had the most potential today besides aristophanes, therefore the most informative options as well as the town consensus, based on votes placed today.

[Cerberus v666]

I feel like pairs is better than trios at this stage, because we want some number of vts for vaxkiller to utilize for bus driving without interfering with other claimed actions.

[Cerberus v666]

@smith: I'm basically guaranteed to be alive in endgame, it's just what I do, and usually I don't have a gunsmith clear on me to help make that happen.

Regarding your objection: sure, that's the weakest reason to be suspicious of you, and I've freely admired that before. Everything else came up long before you made that suggestion, which pinged me, so I threw it in.if you reada couple posts back, I even said I have no idea what we'd get out of a town flip from you.

[Cerberus v666]

I wonder if I had someone list all the claims made so far with the phrasing: "I do not know that x is lying about y", if it would be viable. Probably not, too AI in context, unless scum have made no false claims.

*sigh*

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, if you want to know why I refuse to go after wheme before you, it's because if the scenario I'm suspicious of is true, it will be harder to get you lynched after he flips than it is now, and also because I find miller's and other policy kills to be far better vig shots than lynches, because being on the wagon is pretty uninformative no matter how they flip. It's the reason why I didn't want to actually lynch jj, but wanted him shot. His wagons useless and compromised.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, if you want to know why I refuse to go after wheme before you, it's because if the scenario I'm suspicious of is true, it will be harder to get you lynched after he flips than it is now, and also because I find miller's and other policy kills to be far better vig shots than lynches, because being on the wagon is pretty uninformative no matter how they flip. It's the reason why I didn't want to actually lynch jj, but wanted him shot. His wagons useless and compromised.

Then why did you practically force me to lynch jj rather than vote rb?

Because the noise level from lynching rb was hellacious, and I had more confidence in gamma shooting rb than in him shooting jj.

@smith: if blue scum exists, I expect there to be a good degree of gunsmith immunity among them, given the kill flavor. I expect that to be a fake clear on you in this scenario, tbh.

There's also nothing funny or significant about you being accused of both, because until we know for certain if we're in full multiball, both are viable.

pedit: indeed gork.

[Cerberus v666]

I was kinda hoping you'd give that case on ari. Lynching him is good, but I wanted to hear the reasons behind it before we go to night, since you're a likely kill.

[Cerberus v666]

@Titus: I answered your question(an answer which should have been obvious), but to make this painfully simple for you to comprehend: rb+ a miller needed to die for the sake of PoE and game sanity, and a jj lynch was the most likely way to have that happen. A wheme lynch would have worked too in the same way, but jj was always a better suspect for scum than wheme imo. So, even though I specifically called for the vig to shoot the miller's over the next couple nights, I capitulated on the lynch so the right slots would die.

[Cerberus v666]

VOTE: Aristophanes

[Cerberus v666]

what about his replace-out makes it seem like hes town who wants to help his team vs scum? you realize that scum will typically feel more guilty about letting their team down than town right?

why are random and vedith scum? do you have any kind of reliable track record with reading them or reading players like them?

titus im p sure has a bad track record of reading me.

VOTE: ari
@dc btw titus is lying about being a masoniser. players they neghbourised dont get a confirmation of her alignment.

I, on the other hand, have a great track record of reading random, but unfortunately I've never seen him as scum.

Some things feel like they might be a bit off this game for random, BUT I've also interacted with him in a different way than normal. :/

[Cerberus v666]

thats not a masonizer then.

Does it matter?
Serious question

yes because it is titus lying.

I was lie detected on this by Cerb n2.

This is scum opportunism.

You were low detected about your ability to recruit certain flavors to the pt, NOT about your role as a whole, and in a fashion which could have arguably guaranteed a "true" result(though I'm certain you were telling the truth about that part of your role).

I believe random just wants to make it clear to DrCirno that there is no mechanical reason to believe you're town, unless we prove singleball.

[Cerberus v666]

I also find it more likely than not that this game is singleball, but I think we should be playing as though the setup is 6/5(4)/21(22), when it comes to deciding how close we are to lylo.

[Cerberus v666]

Yep. When I say singleball or multiball, I'm referring to groupscum, not solo third party anti-town.

[Cerberus v666]

For what it's worth, Math, I've NEVER fake claimed with regards to my abilities as scum. Drixx and I considered ways to claim our role block in SU2 in a fashion that made it less threatening, but even then we were planning on claiming the block itself, just not the duration/triggers.

Point being, fabricating a power is something I'm extremely unlikely to do, especially not on D1 in a very large game when I had no reason to risk being counterclaimed. Even if I were scum, I would be scum with a lie detector, which I would be giving you honest results with. That's not to say I couldn't have a non-consecutive lie detect, and some othere power, and be lying about being even-night, but there's basically no chance my lie detect doesn't exist, at least, to anyone else familiar with my scum play.

VC?

[Cerberus v666]

For what it's worth, Math, I've NEVER fake claimed with regards to my abilities as scum. Drixx and I considered ways to claim our role block in SU2 in a fashion that made it less threatening, but even then we were planning on claiming the block itself, just not the duration/triggers.

Point being, fabricating a power is something I'm extremely unlikely to do, especially not on D1 in a very large game when I had no reason to risk being counterclaimed. Even if I were scum, I would be scum with a lie detector, which I would be giving you honest results with. That's not to say I couldn't have a non-consecutive lie detect, and some othere power, and be lying about being even-night, but there's basically no chance my lie detect doesn't exist, at least, to anyone else familiar with my scum play.

VC?

And yes, I know I threw around the idea of taking credit for different abilities within our team in FFT, but again...none of that happened because of the concern about the risk of being counterclaimed by zodiac powers, or the associative in the event one of us was flipped.

[Cerberus v666]

Except ya know the kill flavor and how this game is going.

Just letting you know that multiple kill sources with only one flavorkill suggests SK.
And how this game is going?

N1: One flavorkill, one scumkill
N2: No kill
N3: One vigkill
N4: One scumkill, one vigkill
N5: One scumkill, one vigkill, One flavorkill

Given the claimed roles, please explain how these can be the kills from multiball.
Of course, I can explain this with my theory of singleball with PV5 being SK.

N1: Scum killed, doc missed, and SK killed.
N2: Vigshot went AWOL by shooting commute, scumkill prevented by doc
N3: scumkill prevented by doc. SK prob got roleblocked or sth
N4: SK couldn't kill cos lolcommuting
N5: All kills present

It's n3 that has me concerned. I can plot out every missing kill with SK or second scum faction but n3.

We've had no signs of passive protections except PV's claimed commute. An odd night commuter is possible, as are BP, within both town or scum factions, since we've also seen no sign of kill immunity from flipped scum. Such things are the most likely explanation for the missing details.

[Cerberus v666]

What about my post made you think kill immunity could only exist within scum? Scum wouldn't know why their kill failed, so it's fairly reasonable for then to not push someone who they failed a kill on.

[Cerberus v666]

What about my post made you think kill immunity could only exist within scum? Scum wouldn't know why their kill failed, so it's fairly reasonable for then to not push someone who they failed a kill on.

You'd think with the noose tightening, town would claim it. Either Vax bussed into kill immune scum who tried to kill dave or a scum nk is directly involved.

I also think our watcher/tracker should claim, but you said they shouldn't.

I imagine whatever thought process led to you opposing that claim at the start of this day phase is the same reason why whoever got shot, if town, wouldn't have claimed responsibility.

Hell, why wouldn't scum have claimed responsibility, to get the credit of someone having shot at them??

[Cerberus v666]

My theory is that SK kill got blocked by red scum.

To assume that, that means red scum would have seen through that I was the actual gunsmith,

before

n3. I'll look for that, but I don't see that evidence.

Even if that is true, you'd expect an n4 push. The only one I see that can qualify is random on mhsmith0. Although Almost's last readwall should be analyzed to see if it's possible he left the clue in there.

I knew you were Jet or Spike before N3, who both make lots of sense as investigatives, AND math was making a bunch of noise about you crumbing that you were a gunsmith on D1. I wouldn't put it past scum to mark you as the gunsmith.

[Cerberus v666]

My theory is that SK kill got blocked by red scum.

To assume that, that means red scum would have seen through that I was the actual gunsmith,

before

n3. I'll look for that, but I don't see that evidence.

Even if that is true, you'd expect an n4 push. The only one I see that can qualify is random on mhsmith0. Although Almost's last readwall should be analyzed to see if it's possible he left the clue in there.

I knew you were Jet or Spike before N3, who both make lots of sense as investigatives, AND math was making a bunch of noise about you crumbing that you were a gunsmith on D1. I wouldn't put it past scum to mark you as the gunsmith.

OR to at least realize there was some bullshit going on with the claims and that they couldn't trust that blocking MariaR would be effective at stopping the checks.

Also possible that they simply hit someone who was kill immune, or that we have a bioterror doctor as well whose doing as good a job as davesaz. *shrug*

[Cerberus v666]

I am making dinner.

Wheme should be lynched I don't see why Titus switched to Ari despite low time left on day it is like she wants to force a NL.

--Math

Lol, because rhe only reason ari wasn't already being compromise wagoned is people like me didn't want to lynch him and be left with a replacement vig we couldn't discuss shots with. Once we had a replacement for gamma, an aristo lynch is appealing based on the lack of redeeming traits to his play, as well as saving the mod s the trouble of finding yet another replacement.

Math, I'd love to know what pings you about me. You've seen me as groupscum once, in a rather unique situation.

[Cerberus v666]

Smith is also up on this vca thing, I'd like to see his thoughts as well.

[Cerberus v666]

Dave, are you suggesting that wheme/insomniacs could be a team, with insomniacs as a traitor of that same team? How do you explain insomniacs insistence on the removal of wheme?
Pedit: yeah, his slot is completely useless and unsortable..

[Cerberus v666]

I am making dinner.

Wheme should be lynched I don't see why Titus switched to Ari despite low time left on day it is like she wants to force a NL.

--Math

Lol, because rhe only reason ari wasn't already being compromise wagoned is people like me didn't want to lynch him and be left with a replacement vig we couldn't discuss shots with. Once we had a replacement for gamma, an aristo lynch is appealing based on the lack of redeeming traits to his play, as well as saving the mod s the trouble of finding yet another replacement.

Math, I'd love to know what pings you about me. You've seen me as groupscum once, in a rather unique situation.

Mainly it is how you are mentioning some people and not others. In the post game you mentioned you rarely defend your partner on D1 yet I really haven't seen a read progression typical of town!you

Between that and the lie detectorness and just how conversations with you feel off.

--Math

Fair enough, that's because I'm phoning it in this game and have been since D1, I've opened isos once, and that was to look at where's this phase. *shrug* Understandable perspective though.

[Cerberus v666]

@gork: the yume wouldn't fake claim miller thing is weaker given that Titus pointed out it was suggested as a line in a recent scum game of hers, so it could very well be something she was specifically pushing herself to try. As much as I want it to be as pure clear like I thought it was, it's not quite there with that revelation. Him begging for the rope is pretty town though, given that the timing comes just after I, probably the most vocal opponent of his lynch, admit that I'm not so sure if I'm pushing smith for good enough reasons. I'd think he'd be somewhat aware enough as scum to not try that line with players he doesn't know that well, and I know he doesn't know me at least.

[Cerberus v666]

Regarding the PV SK thing: weak supposition imo. Limited kills on a SK in a game this size seems crippling, even with limited action immunity. He was willing to outright claim, when lie detectable, that he could commute on specifically night 2, night 4, andthat it was triggered. I suppose unlimited shots, and the ability to commute on even nights in exchange for his kill, might be viable?

Pedit: aristo is l-2 vax.

[Cerberus v666]

Jj claimed to always return guilty to all types of checks.

Wheme claimed a more classic miller, who would show up as able to kill, but without a gu , and who wiuldnt be guiltied by the likes of trackers.

Both claimed that results on them would show them as an enemy.

[Cerberus v666]

Did he?

I kept asking him to clarify that point, because he was assuming he would show up with a gun, but I don't remember him saying he wouldn't?

@DrC: Jjs flavor fit for miller, whemes flavor only fits for miller if there is no second second scum team, because it's definitely a villain character, but not in the same group as our scum flips, and thus not as likely fake claim.

[Cerberus v666]

Gork. Put your vote back on aristo. It's more likely to happen than a pivot to PV.

[Cerberus v666]

...

My vote is staying where it is, but I'll move as necessary to ensure a lynch happens before day end.

[Cerberus v666]

Don't fucking shoot ari.

Seriously. If we don't lynch him, the mods will freeze the night until they find a replacemwnt. That replacement will read the game during the night, then be shot before they can say anything.

[Cerberus v666]

Pv sk isn't impossible, but I don't like the theory, as I said before. It makes sense, I'll grant you that, but the limited kills for a SK seems pretty bad.

[Cerberus v666]

I'm lie detecting math or Vedith.
Dr C is vigging between wheme, smith, and MV.
Titus is gu smjthing between random, and I don't remember who else.

That's it.

[Cerberus v666]

I dunno, y would math push this had to be wrong? On the other hand, can we have targets?

We're VT or Goon. We have taken no actions, and we've had zero targets. Was that necessary, or were you talking to someone else?

-Narna

Please restate this post without the question.

[Cerberus v666]

should still make pool in case maf doctor or something stupid.

QFT

[Cerberus v666]

>< I much preferred your original pool..

[Cerberus v666]

You should probably explain what ginngie quoted.

And yeah, Im pretty sure I voted myself on D1 because I was over it already.

[Cerberus v666]

It overlaps woth my lie detect. Please remove insomniacs and replace rhem with someone else.

Or else suggest a new pool for me, noting I have limited targeting abilities.

[Cerberus v666]

More likely 20:6:4/5. The 6 team had a traitor that could never kill or communicate and autoloss when he was the last member, so 5.5, and a slot that gets autoguiltied when his teammates get shot at, so it's not quite as unbalanced as it looks.

[Cerberus v666]

Or rather, a slot thwt, when he bodyguard works, autoguilties his teammates. :p

[Cerberus v666]

Actually question

what really was the point of a mafia bodyguard?

It was NU, pretty much.

[Cerberus v666]

NU?

Negative utility.

[Cerberus v666]

I dunno, y would math push this had to be wrong? On the other hand, can we have targets?

We're VT or Goon. We have taken no actions, and we've had zero targets. Was that necessary, or were you talking to someone else?

-Narna

I lie detected this, it came back as true. I also confirmed that the existence of that question in the post wouldn't have any effect on my result.

Davesaz, what did you do last night?

Vaxkiller: Action claim please.

pedit: yeah, I should have popped in before the thread locked to say that if aristo flipped scum, shoot smith 100%. Sorry. I had expressed that thought process before, but hadn't been thinking about it once things moved over to aristo(and tbh, I didn't have a lot of faith that Aristo would flip scum, simply because there was basically no reason to think of him at all, so I put it at 50/50 at best).

[Cerberus v666]

Also...JJ and Whemestar had IDENTICAL role pm's. I'm a bit surprised Whemestar never stepped in once JJ's flip was revealed to clarify that his was exactly the same, since that was something we had been talking about a bunch, and it was part of the reasoning smith was using.

Anyways.

VOTE: Smith

[Cerberus v666]

Naw, you can shoot him. I automatically place less weight on pushes made by vigs, because you can just go ahead and handle it yourself.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, and yeah, two shot kills. So 7 red scum at least, confirmed singleball+SK.

So, if PV!SK was able to shoot last night, I don't see why he wouldn't have done so, to weaken the theory you're throwing about regarding him. Maybe he chose not to shoot simply to make me doubt it because he could have shot?

pedit: @Gork: Because he defended the fuck out of Ari for not doing shit while shitting all over Wheme for doing nothing, when objectively speaking, Wheme's ISO had about 100000x more content than Ari's.

[Cerberus v666]

@Shiro: How did Titus know that you were all town? Her role PM doesn't say that you're all town, just that if they're x y z she recruits them. It also doesn't specify the information she stated about it not working if they were fake claims they had.

@mod: Can you answer the questions I posed to Shiro? Would Titus' role have worked on a scum slot with the fake claim of one of those flavors? Was she informed of their alignment when she recruited them?

~It would only work on a player with the flavor described in that role pm. As in they would have to have one of those characters as their actual role.

[Cerberus v666]

So, if PV!SK was able to shoot last night, I don't see why he wouldn't have done so, to weaken the theory you're throwing about regarding him. Maybe he chose not to shoot simply to make me doubt it because he could have shot?

Because if he didnt commute tonight he would have to risk being shot by me

He's not that dumb. There was no chance you were going to shoot him last night, not when you had all these people clamoring for miller removal.

pedit: I don't have anything mixed Ginngie. A SK who can only kill half the time is weak as fuck. If it's COMPULSIVE that he kills on certain nights, rather than having the OPTION of commuting instead of killing on other nights, than the role is weaker than I'm willing to accept in a game this size, with a town vig, and a killproof member of the scum team, plus the other protections we have(doc/bodyguard/rolestopper), PLUS the scum team had a nonconsecutive roleblocker...which makes it possible for them to PERFECTLY shut down all his kills if they wanted to.

This means the only universe where Cirno's theory makes sense to me is if he could have chosen to kill ast night, but instead chose to commute, knowing that doing so would STRENGTHEN the case Cirno has made against him.

[Cerberus v666]

I mean it's just not me man
He claimed town even night commuter.
The role he claimed has zero reason to not commute when he can.
If he is caught by something that he didnt commute, then well

Sure, but like..why would people waste actions on someone who has publicly claimed they'll be commuting? It's a bigger risk to strengthen a case on you.

We're in kinda a shitty spot right now, actually. We have two conftowns(Shiro/Gork), two probnot groupscum(Drixx and myself), a probtowndoc(dave), a 50/50 sk/vig(DrCirno), a probtown busdriver(Vaxkiller).


That leaves the list below for our pool of possible groupscum.

mhsmith0 -VT claim
Insomniacs - VT/goon claim, confirmed by lie detection
Vedith
Master Vampire
PeregrineV - Even night commuter
Randomidget
Ginngie
Scott and Ramona

Am I missing any of those claims? Or any results we have on those slots?

[Cerberus v666]

I made no action night 1.

This is the strongest evidence I have that PV isn't SK too. The statement was made and could have been lie detected.

Titus wanted mass claim today, actually. So I think we should do that, assuming she gave gork and shiro some direction and thoughts to pass on depending on what the setup looked like?

[Cerberus v666]

No no no ginngie. I didn't lie detect him, but when he made that statement, he didn't know if I would lie detect him or not. He could have easily shown up for his prod or whatever and not made that statement, without receiving any suspicion.

[Cerberus v666]

I just confined that PV commuted on N2 with my N4 check, because that was all the info we had him claim :/

[Cerberus v666]

I just confined that PV commuted on N2 with my N4 check, because that was all the info we had him claim :/

And yes, because of that, it's possible that he felt more confident in making the statement because he could have felt I wouldn't want to spend two checks on the same slot.

[Cerberus v666]

@Drixx: Pretty much 0% chance you're groupscum, so let's start putting in some work and find the rest of the scum team k?

[Cerberus v666]

Umm.

You and PV are both even night commuters?

[Cerberus v666]

Can't be done until N8.

[Cerberus v666]

Not confirmed town, just confirmed not a PR and not the chosen killer on any prior occasion.

[Cerberus v666]

Don't get indignant with me for demanding the same precision to the claims you make which you demanded of Titus.

[Cerberus v666]

@gork: do we want a mass claim?

[Cerberus v666]

idk.
i feel like 1-2 more days without massclaim might be okay?
i kind of want to parse whoever is the tracker/watcher claim sooner rather than later so they have less room to fakeclaim while theres still roles that they could fuck up trying to fakeclaim on.
was hoping that was what random was going to claim.

Yeah, the tracker/watcher is honestly the only role I see much value in having claim, because with their results and everything else listed(assuming they weren't super paranoid and watching tracking Titus or something(probably not a watcher, because scum kills have obviously been on the obvious targets, therefore a watcher should have caught scum by now)) it might help narrow down that pool of potential groupscum a bit.

I'm a bit leery of randoms error. When he made the initial mistake, I read it and was like ah, he means odd night. Then changing it the wrong way, that's...idk. I'd like to believe random wouldn't make such a mistake as scum, but I've never seen him as scum, so I can't tell you how careful he is with his posts.

[Cerberus v666]

So...you didn't submit an action last night.

[Cerberus v666]

Every decision announced last night has so far been really stupid, except maybe my lie detect, but even that would have probably been better off as checking pvs action claim to prevent a mislynch on him today. :/

[Cerberus v666]

@Drixx: it should be clear that I don't find it likely that PV is group scum, and that his claim that he performed no action on N1 when I could have lie detected it makes it equally unlikely that he's the SK. Therefore, a lynch on him is a mislynch.

[Cerberus v666]

Also, why are you even nitpicking me over that man? You know the care with which I make my posts as scum(and to a lesser extent town), we've had discussions about verbiage such as using mislynch versus lynch...so it's not like it's a choice of wording I'm going to make without having justification in mind.

[Cerberus v666]

Not gonna bother Math, you couldn't get me lynched if you wanted to, so it's kinda a waste of time to towncase myself to you.

Besides, there exists no good reason why I couldn't be the SK. ^^

[Cerberus v666]

Rereading the game is taking forever. Going to pull a Titus and just start fresh.

Everyone convince me you're Town.

--Math

I need no explanation

You could also still be a serial killer, but 1x false gunsmith positive, 2x false cop/tracker positives, 1x false cop clear, 2x false gunsmith clear, and 1x investigation immune seems pretty reasonable, plus I'm not sure how your vulnerability to the gunsmith would be balanced versus the other sk. I guess the day shot could be it, o you could have a godfather effecf...can't be a ninja though, since your claim would have included that in that case. :/

[Cerberus v666]

I can't be a serial killer
When the SK has kill flavor and mine is confirmed to have no kill flavor

That's not nearly as strong an argument as you think it is.

[Cerberus v666]

@Drixx: it should be clear that I don't find it likely that PV is group scum, and that his claim that he performed no action on N1 when I could have lie detected it makes it equally unlikely that he's the SK. Therefore, a lynch on him is a mislynch.

Drixx...eh..I already addressed what you said? Like, immediately after you expressed suspicion of me regarding it.

I really hope you're not wasting limited time casing me simply because you missed my reply.

[Cerberus v666]

Same goes for you actually Random. I thought it was pretty clear that I meant exactly what Drixx suggested I did, particularly since I'm pretty damn sure I specifically mentioned that PV may have felt like it was safe to lie there, because he didn't think I'd be willing to spend a second lie detect on his slot?

[Cerberus v666]

not a big deal. figure its the least i can do after being an emotional baby boy the first six days :').

if you have time in the next few days, could you take a look at cerb's ISO with flipped scum in mind and the ISO of flipped scum to see whether you still feel like hes worth being worried about? if both of you are town here i'd like you on the same page and i feel like as long as the two of you are butting heads, youre not going to be able to get past this, yknow what i mean?

Are you talking about Drixx and I? There won't be much head butting, promise. I mean, unless Drixx decides that it makes sense for groupscum to have another false gunsmith clear(maybe? I feel like with two slots that couldn't be caught my the gunsmith(on the groupscum team) and two that couldn't be caught by the cop, and one that couldn't be caught by our inevitable tracker, we probably reached the saturation point of investigation immunity, but I might be wrong?)

@whomever it was who questioned why I stay in games:

I can't predict things like when my wife demands I build a custom cabinet for small kitchen appliances

this weekend

and suddenly I'm making multiple trips to home improvement stores, cutting up sheets of plywood, and carrying around the pieces in 100+ weather and staying up past midnight gluing pieces together..

It's just like...it's so easy to log in one time over the course of 48 hours. Either you logged in one time and saw the thread locked and didn't bother to submit your action(which is incredibly stupid, since you could always just change it and it's better to have something submitted just in case than to not submit anything with a role like yours), or you were just gonna not check for like days, and "happened" to come back after the day started again...which is why not having enough time to even submit your action, when it would have taken 30 seconds, makes it seem like you shouldn't be here.

[Cerberus v666]

You should ignore the quotes around "happened" in that last post. As I was writing it, I was thinking man, this guy could really be scum, then by the time I got to the end of the post I was like but fuck, all the missing kills, no way he's groupscum.

[Cerberus v666]

Really, Drixx, if you want to predict the value of focusing wholly on me, you need to ask yourself two questions:

1) Am I likely to be group scum without a gun/investigative immune, on a team that's already displayed multiple sources of immunity?
2) if not, is it more valuable to identify and remove sk!me than it is to remove the remainder of the groupscum?

If the answer to both those questions is no(as I believe it should be, given that the bio kills have only happened half as often as the groupscum kills), then focusing on me is certainly suboptimal play.

[Cerberus v666]

Hi Gork. How are you?

[Cerberus v666]

Lol, nicr. I would be laying board games tonight, but it's hot as fuck and I don't expect many people to show up as a result.

Talk to me about ginngie. Titus was beginning to develop suspicions of the slot towards the end of the day yesterday. Does your position on him predate that, or was it spurred on by it?

[Cerberus v666]

@Shiro: How did Titus know that you were all town? Her role PM doesn't say that you're all town, just that if they're x y z she recruits them. It also doesn't specify the information she stated about it not working if they were fake claims they had.

@mod: Can you answer the questions I posed to Shiro? Would Titus' role have worked on a scum slot with the fake claim of one of those flavors? Was she informed of their alignment when she recruited them?

~It would only work on a player with the flavor described in that role pm. As in they would have to have one of those characters as their actual role.

@mod: And the second part of my question regarding her receiving alignment confirmation?

(I get that those flavors are basically alignment confirmation in and of themselvs, but I want to know if Titus was basing her clears totally upon that, or upon the fact that you called her a masonizer, rather than upon her receiving direct confirmation of the alignment of those she recruited.)

[Cerberus v666]

i dont think rando or pv are groupscum.
groupscum is confirmed to be able to kill every night.
i would prefer to clear them out.

Not sure why random couldn't be groupscum. I agree with the rest of the sentiment though.

[Cerberus v666]

I removed pv and random from my potential group scum pool based on the commuter reasoning(just as unlikely as groupscum having yet another gunsmith proof, basically), leaving me with this:

mhsmith0 -VT claim
Insomniacs - VT/goon claim, confirmed by lie detection
Vedith
Master Vampire
Ginngie
Scott and Ramona

You've removed insomniacs and MV from your pool, and I don't really understand why. Insomniacs feels pretty damn town to me, but I don't know why you're okay with them. And MV.

[Cerberus v666]

I've already expressed my smith preference, but I have no objections to either of the other two. If my tooth stops hurting, I'll look into their ISOs and see if anything jumps out.

@Drixx: thoughts on the slots Giro mentioned? Or anyone in my PoE pool for groupscum?

[Cerberus v666]

Giro?? Wtf? That was supposed to be Gork.

[Cerberus v666]

@Cerb - Thank you for helpfully narrowing things further. As far as you and time investment goes. I'd much rather take an extra 5-10 hours and make sure you don't pull out a win and lord it over me for the rest of my life. Priorities, amirite?

Eh, you're also discounting the fact that it's pretty implausible for me to get lynched at this stage, but whatever, feel free to keep wasting time on something that scum!me could use to get you mislynched. *shrug*

[Cerberus v666]

Pretty sure he means he views ginngie as opportunistic, and thus the question you should have asked him should have been regarding what actions from ginngie he viewed as opportunistic.

[Cerberus v666]

@Drixx: No. Titus' slot has flipped, and is no longer in the game. The moderator should now be able to answer any questions we may ask as they would have answered the questions if asked by the player who had the role. I don't know what kind of bullshit world you think you live in where the moderator SHOULDNT answer questions about a flipped role, ESPECIALLY one that, by the wording of the abilities, does not work as the role title indicates it should.

[Cerberus v666]

I don't think of it as bastard. I think of it as shitty moderation, and I expect better of my mods.*shrug*

[Cerberus v666]

You, sir, are a shitty moderator, and I appreciate the warning.

[Cerberus v666]

Did you miss my earlier bitching? *sigh* The worst part is that it's dependent on other people. If I hadn't actually claimed it, I doubt I would have found any posts that qualified and couldn't have been claimed to be gambits/clear jokes. People never make posts that are 100% statements about thingsq they know, they always include that crap in posts with a bunch of other superfluous and subjective information.

[Cerberus v666]

You know, the bit PV said about how insomniacs can't be the sk because of my lie detect...

Does....does that mean that statement was directly AI because we didn't include a 3p option? :/

[Cerberus v666]

Gork, why are you signing your posts as scott?

Also, how was ping pong?

Pedit: davesaz, check my question to drive about his suspicions of me. That's basically the only reason for me to be considered not groupscum. SK is, as I've said, an option(but lie detector SK seems silly, but meh. Still possible.)

[Cerberus v666]

Nope. I haven't caught anybody lying, and nothing Ive checked is confIrmable except insomniacs role claim, and even that isn't very useful or good for clearing me because I could have just assumed they were telling the truth.

Pedit: yeah, it was supposed to be drixx, and jm pointing it out to you because you asked why we don't think I'm scum, and that post lays out the only reason I'm aware of.

[Cerberus v666]

Please don't hammer ginngie quite yet for that bullshit(though he should be hammered for it), we have stuff to discuss, like cirno shooting smith or S&R.

And also I want to do a quick run down of estimated time to lylo based on cirno bolstering or not, to see which line is better for us overall.

[Cerberus v666]

K so we're at 15 alive.

Worst case scenario are:
3 red scum(one of which controls the bio kill) and a sk(cirno) remaining
OR
2 red scum, and 2 sks(cirno is one)

Red scum pool is 5 slots deep.
We have 15 alive.
If Cirno shoots in that pool every night, and we lynch in it, and we maintain the same kpn(odd nights bio, every night gun)and we hit the scum in the pool last:

Tomorrow: 11 alive, 3 in the pool. Lynch one, 10 alive, two in the pool, we either hit scum here, OR we hit scum in the night+next lynch. Scum shoot, cirno shoots, and we're at 8 alive, one in the pool. Lynch that one, and we're at 7 alive going into night, with an unknown sk left assuming the PoE pool is accurate. If it's not, we could just be on the verge of losing.

If cirno doesn't shoot....ugh. it's even worse for is isn't it? 14 alive going into night, 12 tomorrow morning, 4 in the pool, 11, then 10, 3 in the pool, 9, then 7, 2 in the pool. Cirno not shooting just means we don't clear out the PoE pool fast enough. :/

[Cerberus v666]

Note I said worst case scenario gork, since I can't speculate about how bad things could get without assuming the maximum reasonable number of scum remaining. Pretty sure early in the day I even noted how unlikely cirno was to be SK, but that doesn't mean it isn't something I get to just ignore.

[Cerberus v666]

Doesn't mean it is something, sorry.

[Cerberus v666]

Naw, because if I'm alive in a 3p lylo you always get lynched. No explanation for you surviving that long.

And if I'm dead before then, still happy because it's somebody else's problem. ^^

[Cerberus v666]

I mean, it's literally going to be an SK hunt

but uh, cerb, for realizes "masonizer" was in the title.

So? The role was clearly not a masonizer, because nothing about it confirmed anyone's alignment to anyone else, based on what was flipped.

[Cerberus v666]

We know you're going to be lynched before Gork ever does so I don't even know why you're talking like this?

I don't get lynched(except in LYLO as scum ).

A 3p lylo with gork and I both alive in it is so unlikely as to practically guarantee he's scum there.

Anyways, context is key. Gork says "implausible scenario where gork is scum is the worst case scenario" and I retort "no it isn't because in that implausible universe I'm alive in a 3p lylo with you and will get you lynched, so it's better than having all these other scum around who can beat us through sheer numbers!"

with a fucking :p

Yeah. That was definitely me preplanning in thread my intention to never shoot at gork as sk and go into a lylo where I have to convince someone else that gork is more likely to be scum than me.

...

[Cerberus v666]

Mmm, I'm pretty sure you haven't played with me before in any of your incarnations Gork. Probably depends on who the third person is though, since ya know, scum!me would probably just try to get them lynched instead of you.

[Cerberus v666]

They haven't been?

[Cerberus v666]

Then again, I think the only actions that have occurred which I could point to as being potentially scum motivated are the NA's that were wasted last night, and smiths defense of Ari(at least, without diving into the game deeper than I've bothered doing). *shrug* So, that's kinda a useless question.

[Cerberus v666]

fuck you it said masonizer

Oh, and to answer your retort:

Yes, it said masonizer.

No, it did not function like a masonizer, based on the text of the role.

If you had a role that said "bodyguard" but instead functioned like a doctor, which is it?

[Cerberus v666]

( and yes, I realize that this debate over the masonizer thing is both irrelevant, because it's extremely improbable that gork is scum, improbable enough that I'd be happy losing to him, and scummy as fuck, because making people doubt that "clears" are actually clear is a path to victory for scum!me(but this is the most heavy handed possible way for scum!me to do it, so that's nullified, but whatever, not many of you who are left have the knowledge of me required to 1) know that, and 2) not know that scum!me could do this specifically to play out of character)

Not sure what the point of that bit was, actually. Meh. Ginngie, for reals though, are you actually done contributing to the game? Or do you have actual reads and such to share? Assuming you're town, of course. If you're scum feel free to just say no, so all we have to do is wait for cirno to show up so we can figure out who he's shooting.

[Cerberus v666]

Sk's are hard to hunt. If one gets caught it's dumb luck as much as anything else, if they're bothering to play the game, since they can legit scum hunt and don't need to go out of their way to do anything especially suspicious. That aversion to drawing attention can be useful in identifying them, I guess, but a lot of it comes down to knowledge of how specific people play unfortunately. I hate meta, but it's valuable versus SK's in particular IF those players are normally super unobtrusive, or town leaders etc, since being SK makes them want to avoid drawing attention in either of those ways.

[Cerberus v666]

Eh, you could claim all your missing shots if you really want to help us out. ^^ And all the other actions your team took.

[Cerberus v666]

Edit: just ignore me.
I am going to sleep.

Peace out.
/mod leaves the site.

It's all smith's fault, for voting for gork.

Ginngies is at l-1 btw. Someone should unvote if we want to have any discussion about actions happening tonight. Otherwise, I can just hammer?

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, and to respond to the response to my suggestion: yeah, the point of me asking that was because it's not really something you can (honestly) claim if you had a teammate left, whereas you could just let us control your kill while you have a teammate around and go for a stealth win there.

[Cerberus v666]

Fb come back.

Cirno, shoot S&R or smith.

[Cerberus v666]

Or PV I guess, but I think that's not gonna hit the sk, and he's probably not groupscum. :/

[Cerberus v666]

Just finished going over Drixx's play in one of the games he linked with Ramona and comparing it to here. She's on board with him being town now. Completely different guy.

Fine with being shot.

- Scott

I could have told you that. :p

I'll have you know, in all our games where we haven't shared an alignment, I've beaten him. :p all two of them. And I've never seen him as scum versus me. But still, I know how much he values the limited opportunities you get to be scum and practice your play, so back burnering this game seems unlikely for scum!Drixx.

[Cerberus v666]

Should a shot at the obvdoc more. :p

Pedit: mmm ari replace out was bunk. Replacing gamma instead of Ari was also bunk, but we'll discuss that post game, still got your partner and a sk to find!

Peditx2: idk, the gunsmith thing was kinda obvious. :/ Maybe just cause I was paying attention to the lie detect posts, and Titus did certain things with her phrasing to make her words pass the lie detect without exposing the gunsmith thing.

Again, post game.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, plus MariaR like NEVER gunsmith checks me, someone she's had almost no experience with, on D1. :p but yeah, can't expect everyone else to have that perspective.

[Cerberus v666]

Ginngie already self hammered.

[Cerberus v666]

1) I NEVER kill those who suspect me while they suspect me vocally, unless we're super late game.
2) SK almost certainly doesn't have a gun, you shouldn't clear anyone because of those results.

So, let's work this out. Davesaz stopped a kill on Shiro last night, and a kill on *someone* one other night. Titus claimed there was a rolestopper in the bebop crew, so the other saves came from them. With that information, gork, are you guys able to clear anyone else?

Also, do you think the SK sacrificed their nk for a day kill to remove cirno, and the last remaining scum tried to shoot shiro, OR that redscum are all gone? I guess redscum must still be around, right, or else ginngie selfhammering wouldn't have been a thing ya?

[Cerberus v666]

N1
Vig: couldn't shoot
SK :Chairman Doggo ; Bob ; Odd Night Neapolitan aligned with Bounty Hunters was Killed Night 1 in a biological terror attack
Scum: Siblings Quarrel ; Faye Valentine ; Ascetic Amnesiac Alignment Cop aligned with Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 1
Doc: SQ, ascetic.

N2
Vig: Shot at PV, who was commuting
Scum: Unknown
SK: Unknown
Doc: MariaR

N3
Vig:Socrates ; Fad ; Traitor aligned with the Syndicate was Shot Night 3
Scum: Unknown
SK: Unknown
Doc: Titus

N4
Scum: (Vaxkiller Bus Drive claim, shot aimed at davesaz)Not Fury ; Doohan ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 4
Vig: RachMarie ; Elektra Ovirow ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 4
SK: Unknown
Doc: Gorkington

N5
Scum: MariaR; Ein ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters Shot Night 5
Vig: Rb ;Antonio ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters Shot Night 5
SK: Priscila; Shin ; Bodyguard aligned with the Bounty Hunters Killed Night 5 in a biological terror attack
Doc: Titus

N6
Vig: WhemeStar ; Wen ; Miller; aligned with the Bounty Hunters; Shot Night 6.
Scum: Titus ; Jet Black ; Gunsmith Masonizer; aligned with the Bounty Hunters; Shot Night 6.
SK: Unknown
Doc: No one
D7:
New flavor, probably SK? DrCirno ; Andy von de Oniyate ; Vigilante aligned with the Bounty Hunters ; Died Day 7.

N7:

Sk:unknown
Scum:unknown
Doc: Shiro

Okay, so the one thing that we know is that out of all those missing kills, no more than ONE could have come from davesaz successfully protecting someone. That makes it very probable that the sk actually *is* somehow limited in their killing ability, as shitty for them as that seems. Unless you can see some other possible reason for all the missing sk kills?

Are we at mass claim time? Is it even possible that there's a second, limited doc who's been stopping the SK? That can't be, right, because that's just...ridiculously perfect targeting on their part to always stop the sk on the even nights. :-/

The PV thing bothers the shit out of me. Like, it fits so perfectly with the pattern we've seen, why would SK!PV claim his true ability? Why would he let himself potentially be caught by my lie detect by claiming no action on N1? It just feels like it's such a juicy target that we've been setup to go after. :-/

[Cerberus v666]

okay, so odd night SK. With some other power(probably the kill that happened to cirno?)

N2
Vig: Shot at PV, who was commuting
Scum: Unknown <<<Doc save
Doc: MariaR

N3
Vig:Socrates ; Fad ; Traitor aligned with the Syndicate was Shot Night 3
Scum: Unknown<<<doc save
SK: Unknown <<< rolestopper
Doc: Titus

N4
Scum: (Vaxkiller Bus Drive claim, shot aimed at davesaz)Not Fury ; Doohan ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 4
Vig: RachMarie ; Elektra Ovirow ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 4
Doc: Gorkington

Yeah, so even with removing the sk and giving the rolestopper credit for something, we have two deaths that require a doctor save, and we KNOW both of those couldn't have been performed by davesaz. So we're still missing a kill, even in the odd night SK scenario. :-/

[Cerberus v666]

Gork, if you can explain the missing kill, just say you're able to do so, no need to give me details unless we're going to go ahead and full claim today.

[Cerberus v666]

K, so we still don't know what happened to the second kill on N3(or the kill on N2?) then. Got it. Scum had a roleblock up on N3 most likely, and the doc save wasn't aimed at MariaR, so it's reasonable to assume that the roleblock was targeted at her, since she didn't die that night. So, that means scum roleblocking the sk and preventing the kill isn't probable either.

[Cerberus v666]

could be that rolestop stopped both kills?

*sigh* that's the detail that I didn't want you to specifically SAY could have happened, since I much preferred we live in a universe where scum didn't have any reason to think that a rolestop might have been used on more than one night. My bad though, I knew I was pushing it, but I was hoping you'd just say you might have an idea for why the other kill may have missed as well, without specifying the rolestop(thought process being scum might be thinking joat, rather than pure rolestopper).

It's irrelevant now I guess. Probably was irrelevant when I was thinking about it, but I'm trying to put this all together. So let's assume all the missing kills are explained.

Vaxkiller: Mind refreshing me regarding your actions taken?

Gork: Thought on my PV thoughts?

pedit:
@MV Random already addressed this, he said he expected the flavor of the other commuter to be some flavor that paralleled his own, like the timing of the commute limitations did. Now, I'm not sure why he wouldn't at least be somewhat suspicious that the other commuter was the opposite alignment of himself as well. :-/
@Vax: Cirno died at the end of the day yesterday, either through an ability used by groupscum or, more likely the sk. Last night was a night where we expected the SK to take a shot. No kills happened, and we KNOW davesaz saved Shiro. There are a few different possible scenarios to explain this.

1) The SK sacrificed their kill that night to instead shoot during the day, and ensure they could remove DrCirno. The scum team shot had a member remaining, and shot at Shiro. This line strongly implicates PV, as Cirno had made it clear he would shoot him, and also implicates that the N3 missing kill was stopped by the rolestopper used on DrCirno(thus informing the SK that a second, nonloud way to prevent kills existed, which would explain why they'd want to make sure the kill went through by using it during the day).
2) The SK/groupscum had a day kill ability, and used it. An unknown method prevented one kill, and Davesaz prevented another on Shiro.
3) Groupscum are all gone, the SK/groupscum had a day kill ability already used on Cirno, and the SK shot at Shiro, with Davesaz preventing it.

1 and 3 have the most supporting evidence. The issue with 3 is Ginngie's decision to self hammer. I don't believe a scum player who is the last member of their team is allowed to self hammer, as doing so is directly playing against win condition. That means groupscum most likely took a shot last night, and the missing kill from the SK last night is most likely due to them using their kill during the day on DrCirno.

[Cerberus v666]

Regarding 1) above: I mention the fact that Gork says there's a good chance the rolestopper prevented a kill on DrCirno's slot because that fact opens up the possibilities. If not for that, I would simply say maybe PV was just outplaying me with his claims and the timing of them, and he's actually just the SK and he HAD to take that shot to keep from dying that night, however....ANY SK would have had cause to make sure a kill on the Vig would go through before giving them another shot at shooting, especially after I outlined how the timeline for us changes regarding our abiility to clear out the PoE pool in the absence of his kills.

[Cerberus v666]

@MV: So you're suggesting that the SK is the only one left, and they(or groupscum) used an ability to kill Cirno during the day, without impacting their normal killing ability at night, and they chose to shoot at Shiro?

[Cerberus v666]

Upon further reflection, it ciuod have also been smith or S&R, since they were in the PoE pool for last groupscum. Fairly compelling reason for either of them to remove him as well.

Gork, do you think there's any chance PV is groupscum?

[Cerberus v666]

im saying that the odds of him by chance just happening to choose the mirror role to someone else is laughably small. if hes scum the fact that he can commute is probably not a fakeclaim, and i dont believe that groupscum gets a commuter on top of all of the other shit that can gate kills.

Yep. This is the foundation of my argument against him as a possibility yesterday. The chances of him being the sk are much higher than they were yesterday, if that end of day kill was caused by the sk, because an even night commuter, odd night sk, might work if they have other abilities, such as making their kills happen during the day, or using poison on some night, and kills on others, or if they have extra powers gated behind x group scum dying. Idk. That just leaves his willingness to state he performed no action on N1 as the biggest reason to think he isn't the sk.

So, here's my proposition: PV states that he took no action on D1 or N1. We lynch elsewhere. I lie detect him. The bus driver and role stopper consider protecting me(don't need to, but we need the possibility publicly known so there's some degree of wifom). Tomorrow morning, if I'm alive, PV is either confirmed liar, or confirmed not possibly SK, and the reasoning about him not being group scum still holds.

If I die you just lynch him tomorrow. *shrug*

[Cerberus v666]

Hi, it's me Nardrixx. I'm sorry that my play reeks of sk, but trust me, I would never shoot Shiro because they didn't say "mislynch". VOTE: Drixx

-Nardrixx

[Cerberus v666]

They can't be sk, unless the mod decided the "VT or goon" statement was AI and would always return true.

[Cerberus v666]

We insisted on being checked on our "we can't kill" statement. Is Drixx suggesting that we decided Titus would be an easy slot to groom for a mislynch? Because that's just

-Narna

And I refused to check the "we can't kill" statement because in the context of the game with a flipped traitor, it was certainly AI.

[Cerberus v666]

N5
Scum: MariaR; Ein ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters Shot Night 5
Vig: Rb ;Antonio ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters Shot Night 5
SK: Priscila; Shin ; Bodyguard aligned with the Bounty Hunters Killed Night 5 in a biological terror attack
Doc: Titus

We need to talk about this.

@mod: If Shin bodyguarded someone who was protected by a doctor, and that person was targeted by a kill, what would happen?

[Cerberus v666]

its almost a guarantee that priscila was on dave that night given that a bunch of us were telling her to be.

Except Titus was telling her that if Titus died before she did, then she would be lynched. That's what stood out to me, Titus' insistence on being the person Priscilla would protect.

[Cerberus v666]

Like, I don't necessarily know if it was THAT explicit, but that was basically Titus' defense of Priscilla, that there was no reason to lynch her slot unless Titus died before her.

[Cerberus v666]

The idea that there are two sets of groupscum was also strongly pushed by A50 way back when. Doesn't give you a whole lot of credit when someone else on the scumteam was pushing the same narrative.

[Cerberus v666]

Bringing that up right now is a weird choice for town too. You've got one vote on you from someone who pushed you constantly, and the strongest town voice isn't even mentioning you.

You could argue it's a weird choice for scum, I guess, but I suppose I just see scum as more concerned with "getting ahead" of things before sentiment turns against them and they look desperate when they defend themselves.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, and the Aristo thing still looks really bad for you. Super duper bad.

[Cerberus v666]

Playerlist in order of my unwillingness to lose to them:

mhsmith0
Drixx
Randomidget
MV / PeregrineV
Vedith/S&R/Insomniacs
Gorkington
Shiro

Does this mean something? I don't know. I just felt like making it, mainly because of the top three names.

pedit: Smith, no dude, it's the simple fact that you completely dismissed Aristophanes lack of content while using a similar lack of content as a point against Whemestar, as like, the ONLY actual argument you had that he was scum based on his play, rather than your setup spec and his role. The one you dismissed evidence against was scum, and the one where you latched onto similar behavior as scummy was town. That's the sort of, dare I say, cognitive dissonance, that feels scummy to me, rather than just being stupid town behavior.

[Cerberus v666]

Hey Gork, keep carrying plz, I've avoided serious ISO dives all game long and I would love to just get a W without having to do some pbp analysis.

@smith: Are you ever going to arrive at conclusions regarding the vote counts you keep putting up, or are you just gonna keep coloring VC's and telling us that's helpful?

[Cerberus v666]

1) two millers is unlikely
2) flavor points strongly towards him being blue scum

3) hes howling
4) basically no one ever wants to lynch him despite him being the lowest of low hanging fruits

Like, this really shouldn't be as hard as it is

Oh right, you said this too.

...

[Cerberus v666]

I mean, when I pressed you to tell me exactly what Wheme had done that was 'wolfy', you never gave me an actual answer, other than the bullshit about him not doing anything.

[Cerberus v666]

Some quick reaction/thoughts:

Drixx - because he is trying to shade the mason claim

null tho, especially since it semes like he and titus don't get along

Rb - gut, his iso feels fake, he does not seem to care who is lynched

Could buy it. IIRC he's usually more useful as town.

Shiro - does nothing, mocks me for scumreading them

Not really indicative? Could policy lurker lynch there I guess but I'm not srong on it.

TheRealGin-N-Tonics - qualified their defense of me with a discredit, if they are town they leave out the discredit

I think they're town tho; talked about it a fair amount on day 2

Scott and Ramona - they hide in the background

Clarify? They've been posting a lot, and my sense is their content has improved a bit as the game has continued. Am I being too lazy in reading them there?

Socrates - has no real scum reads

Maybe? But I feel like a good chunk of thegame doesn't really have solid scumreads, and I feel like scum would be able to bullshit up at least something semi decent-looking as scumreads, especially in multiball

Aristophanes - does nothing, lurked all game

Plausible

Not Fury - their iso is posturing and shade, they give reads and commentary but no drive to solve the game

I guess I'll probably look at this one to see if I agree when I have some time.

This also doesn't look great for you, how Ginngie is town to you, from early in the game, and Aristo is plausible as scum here, but stops being plausible when he becomes an actual lynch option.

[Cerberus v666]

Because we are ahead by a bajillion lynches.

Mass claim only gives scum info to fuck over everyone.

This is objectively a really good reason to lynch the 2nd miller claim, who's claimed flavor that was outright scum last game, when this game ALL scum flips have been the same flavor as scum flavor last game.

The mechanically optimal plan is

1) Lynch Wheme
2) If Wheme flips town miller, vig me

3) If Wheme flips scum, vig someone from the mason pool (which better fucking not be me after getting a scum lynched)

If Wheme is blue scum, you've now cracked into the blue scum team and can potentially mine for connections. If Wheme is SK (dubious I think), then town is MUCH better off than before. If Wheme is red scum (even more dubious I think unless there's syndicate flavor for Wen), then maybe that just ends the faction. And if Wheme is actually a town miller, then you get explicit information that says that the setup is probably NOT broadly similar to last time, at least on the scum side, and if nothing else you've prevented any other possible town PRs from having to claim.

I'll probably delve into Wheme in more detail later this week, but if we're doing a "fuck it we need to move the game state forward" lynch, then Wheme is high info and mechanically likely scum (IIRC "there aren't two town millers" was part of the "lets lynch jjh" discussion but oddly absent now that Wheme is the theory 2nd miller)

I'm also a bit curious why you're no longer willing to die. Is it somehow no longer optimal to remove you after your push on him?

[Cerberus v666]

Oh right, because me being wrong about one persons alignment is exactly the same as reacting in a different fashion to the exact dame behavior from two different slots.

And yeah, I was actually looking for your wheme case again, and ran into other shit that made me not care about the wheme thing.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, and it's also exactly the same as me defending scum early, while having an inconsistent read progression on another scum slot,

[Cerberus v666]

Do you think a bus driver/sk is possible? Do you think groupscum chose to shoot not fury, and Vax killer is a scum bus driver(or not one at all)?

If the answer to both is no, Vax is town.

Why arent I on the list?

@All: why did nobody respond to my suggestion that I check PVs statement and we lynch elsewhere? Unless you think 2 groupscum remain in addition to the sk, the only risk there is that the mod will decide the statement is AI.

[Cerberus v666]

Pending any dedicated re-reading of this novella,

Vote: Vedith

Also, more at the top of my scumlist than the bottom:
randommidget
Scott & Romona

Middle:
Vaxkiller-claimed role
Smith-because you guys seem convniced, but still havent seen whatever your scumreading him for

Lower-
Master Vampire
Drixx
Insominiacs

this is an interesting readlist. having drixx and insom at the bottom together is the main surprise. what do you think the relation and alignment between the two of them is?

Invert it random. The people towards the bottom are his weaker scumreads. The ones at the top are his stronger. At least that's what I think he meant.

[Cerberus v666]

Why is that?

[Cerberus v666]

Yo Gork, why Vedith over smith?

Drixx...do you intend to accomplish something this day phase? I'm quite willing to fight tooth and nail to stall this day out if it means actually getting some content from you.

[Cerberus v666]

Elaborate though, I don't understand why one couldn't have them as the two strongest scumreads. Absolutely no reason I can see why one couldn't suspect drixx of being the sk, and insomniacs of being groupscum.

[Cerberus v666]

Mmmm.

Okay. The way you phrased the question, I can see that as the main thrust.

Where are you at on S&R/Vedith/Smith? Do you think there's ANY chance of two groupscum remaining?

[Cerberus v666]

@Gork: games dead. Can we just do the mass claim bullshit(for everyone but Shiro, unless he has info to share) and inject some life into this game?

[Cerberus v666]

I just want the tracker results damnit. :p

And this is like, not a game I'm trying to hardcase people in cuz that's hard. :/

[Cerberus v666]

vote: vedith

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

I had a good run.

Is that an sk claim?

[Cerberus v666]

Ah oaky. Cool.

[Cerberus v666]

Can we do this instead gork?

That last post rings true to me.

VOTE: Smith

Also: Smith, the refusal to lose to list is a combination of personal relationships, and preexisting reads.

I've been calling you scum forever, and thus losing to you would be a major failure on my part to get someone I've been suspicious of lynched. With Drixx and Random, they're my homies, and purely on principle I can't allow them to beat me(ESPECIALLY Drixx, since the record so far is all in my favor).

Nothing personal in your case though. I'll admit to being annoyed at you like 6 months ago or something because you took the time to shit talk me in some game, or in post game analysis of some game, but that's not really related to the reasons I find you likely to be scum.

[Cerberus v666]

@PV: can you please take the time to give some thoughts in addition to your conclusions next time you're around? Rightt now it feels like I'm fighting to keep you alive but you have nothing to contribute, like if I keep you alive and you are town you'll just lose the game for us in the end because of your apathy. :/

[Cerberus v666]

A thought I had last night: I know we were already considering this, but some more evidence for this line of thinking: The Cirno kill yesterday was almost 100% performed by the SK. Why? Because if the groupscum team had the ability to perform a daykill and bypass all those protections, they would have certainly used it on MariaR or Titus even earlier. Now, the question becomes why would the SK use that ability at this time specifically, which is a lot harder to answer, since the ability could have been targeted during N6 or D7, we simply don't know, so we have twice as much material to go through if we want to do any NKA on what prompted this measure.

[Cerberus v666]

it wouldve resolved pre lynch if it was activated at a specific point IMO

Yeah. The fact that it activated upon lunch indicates a poison style kill, but we don't know if it was targeted during the night before, or during that day phase.

[Cerberus v666]

...

Do you see ANYBODY listening to Insomniacs?

You're making an absurd argument to justify not contributing. You're not even in the pool of potential groupscum, which means a mislynch on you simply isn't going to happen anytime soon, unless we happen to hit the groupscum with today's lynch...and even in that scenario, there are others more likely to be lynched than you, further extending the time you'll be in this game.

[Cerberus v666]

To make this perfectly clear: It is highly likely there is another member of the groupscum team out there. THAT'S what we need to find, that's what your analysis can help with, because they have 7 teammates who have already flipped.

[Cerberus v666]

In addition, given that the game has been pruned, even in your sk search(assuming you even include the IC and gork in your ISO examination), you have about 5k posts to look at, ISO wise, AND you've presumably been making notes throughout your initial reading of the game....so that should help to deal with any context you might otherwise need to research while reading those isos.

Also...you certainly can't call Insomniacs rubbish when you've done nothing. Being wrong and contributing does a lot more to help solve the game than sitting around with your thumb stuck up your ass. At least I can look at their ISO and follow where their attention was at throughout the game, and deduce things from that point.

[Cerberus v666]

And a traitor, and a godfather, and a ninja.

[Cerberus v666]

It's not number of prs that matters. It's the TYPE of PRs they are. Every single one mentioned shuts down the investigatives in some way, either by returning false results, being uncheckable, or outright preventing actions from resolving...and that's in addition to having two false cop positives, and one false gunsmith positive, AND a SK that the gunsmith can't catch.

I understand that in an optimal situation, the bebop crew, with their two investigatives and apparent ability to role stop one of the investigatives, ensuring they get results from at least one each night, is quite overwhelming for a normal scum team, but I don't believe it's SO overwhelming that the majority of the scum in this game(75%) should have some form of investigative immunity.

[Cerberus v666]

Go ginngie! Keep those prods coming!

[Cerberus v666]

Granted, it's somewhat marginal, because we're really looking at, at most ONE MORE investigative immune slot to an already resilient scum team. The question becomes how much is too much.

@Random: don't think I don't see you advocating for a line of reasoning that also applies to your slots defense.

[Cerberus v666]

Where are your reads at random? Or at least, who are your group scum candidates?

[Cerberus v666]

smith, mv, drixx, s&r, vax for groupscum.

Elaborate on Drixx and Vax please.

[Cerberus v666]

I'm not sure what you're confused about. The sk isn't using a gun. Yes, standard gunsmith couldn't catch a sk per "normal" rules, but the gunsmith could have just as easily found weapons, not just guns, therefore the distinction is worth noting.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, and in that list above, I also forgot about the pro town third party in davesaz, which was a false positive for the alignment cop.

[Cerberus v666]

@PV: can you please take the time to give some thoughts in addition to your conclusions next time you're around? Rightt now it feels like I'm fighting to keep you alive but you have nothing to contribute, like if I keep you alive and you are town you'll just lose the game for us in the end because of your apathy. :/

[Cerberus v666]

whatever ill admit this gamestate is pretty fucking boring right now

I know. I'm trying to find a way in and do my share but I really am having trouble finding anything useful. I really would rather not go to the gallows purely from the perspective that while we're doing REALLY well right now, there's still only a finite amount of mislynches until we lose, and it doesn't matter if they happen at the start of the game or all in a row at the end. Just want to finish it off for the win.

Why are you maintaining this focus on getting lynched when you're far from a probable candidate to be lynched anytime soon, as I outlined previously?

[Cerberus v666]

smith, mv, drixx, s&r, vax for groupscum.

Elaborate on Drixx and Vax please.

Ehh vax probs isn't group scum tbh. I've found a lot of play rly scummy but his messing up scum kills probs clears him.
Drixx hasn't really done a huge amount that is AI and I feel like his tunnel on you was to avoid having to give large amounts of reads. Still, that could just be activity. I would probs say its in order of most to least likely group scum atm but drixx and s&r are equal

What makes the argument against your or PV as group scum not apply to Drixx, since as a gunsmith clear, he also represents another investigation immune slot in groupscum.

[Cerberus v666]

You need to be on half the playerlist+1 lists to be at risk. You're on one persons list to any notable degree. Nobody else really cares.

[Cerberus v666]

Pending any dedicated re-reading of this novella,

Vote: Vedith

Also, more at the top of my scumlist than the bottom:
randommidget
Scott & Romona

Middle:
Vaxkiller-claimed role
Smith-because you guys seem convniced, but still havent seen whatever your scumreading him for

Lower-
Master Vampire
Drixx
Insominiacs

this is an interesting readlist. having drixx and insom at the bottom together is the main surprise. what do you think the relation and alignment between the two of them is?

having drixx and insoms as your two strongest scumreads in conjunction is weird. having them both as "could possibly be scum" works.

Elaborate though, I don't understand why one couldn't have them as the two strongest scumreads. Absolutely no reason I can see why one couldn't suspect drixx of being the sk, and insomniacs of being groupscum.

exactly whichis why I asked if that was the case.

This sequence seems to indicate that as of the time of this post the idea that Drixx was unlikely to be groupscum was something you were well aware of...unless you had some other thoughts going on with regards to why you asked about the specific relationship and alignment reads on Drixx and Insomniacs.

[Cerberus v666]

I am not even sure how far behind I am however I do remember not liking pere so

Votε:Pere

Shiro, PV is super unlikely to be groupscum, and I can lie detect to make sure he took no action on D1/N1, removing him from contention as the serial killer.

Basically, he's a bad lynch.

[Cerberus v666]

I am not even sure how far behind I am however I do remember not liking pere so

Votε:Pere

Shiro, PV is super unlikely to be groupscum, and I can lie detect to make sure he took no action on D1/N1, removing him from contention as the serial killer.

Basically, he's a bad lynch.

ir we could lynch him and check someone else? It seems like a nonissue.

Other slots(except Drixx) don't have the "unlikely to be groupscum" thing going on.

Granted, I could check random or Drixx for a similar sort of clear, I suppose, but Drixx and random are further from getting lynched than PV is.

Gork, what do you think? I've been focusing on PV since that's the other wagon, but realistically there's no reason why I can't check Drixx or Random, to confirm they performed no action on N1 for Drixx, and N5 for random(since he claims he never used his commuter after N1, and that was a night with a SK kill).

[Cerberus v666]

Thoughts on the possibility that random is a SK who commutes himself when he performs kills?

[Cerberus v666]

Cerberus v666 - Even Night Lie Detector
mhsmith0 - VT
Shiro - IC
Insomniacs - VT
Vedith - VT
Drixx - unclaimed, no gun
Master Vampire - unclaimed?
Vaxkiller - Bus Driver, drove a group scum kill onto easily mislynch, problown unless super pro play.
PeregrineV - Even night commuter
Randomidget - odd night commuter
Gorkington - bebop crew member
Scott and Ramona - VT? I think?

Did anyone claim that I missed, or not claim and I attributed VT to them?

Pedit: would just having random state he performed no action on D5/ N5 work? I wanted him to confirm that he commuted N1, and claim his role, because that would mean he couldn't be the SK...except for the idea of a killer who's safe while killing is quite reasonable.

[Cerberus v666]

Also, eh. Why are you saying PV makes the most sense as SK but also that you're not confident there will be a mechanical tie-in, since that's exactly what there is for PV?

[Cerberus v666]

Random, say this please, assuming it's true: I took no actions on D5 or N5, and I am a <whatever your role name is, with whatever limitations you have. Don't say anything else in the post please.

Drixx, you should claim your D1/ N1 target, if any, in the same way, or specify that you took no action on D1/N1.

You, Drixx, should also move your vote to smith, not PV, for the reasons given by Gork.

@Vedith: What, smith is town because he has once again chosen to "try" as soon as votes on him reach a point where he's the clear frontrunner?

[Cerberus v666]

Hey Pv wanna be a little focused on self preservation and vote for smith? :p

(That will put him at l-1)

[Cerberus v666]

Random, drixx, I would very much appreciate if you could make rhe statements I requested of you.

[Cerberus v666]

That's okay Smith. I'm well aware of how little I contributed to this game and the other one. I've discovered that I don't really give any fucks anymore about mafia unless I have people depending on me, so unless I'm scum or in a hydra, trash is all I can aspire to.

[Cerberus v666]

That's okay Smith. I'm well aware of how little I contributed to this game and the other one. I've discovered that I don't really give any fucks anymore about mafia unless I have people depending on me, so unless I'm scum or in a hydra, trash is all I can aspire to.

Wow. Uh... weren't you like super pissed about my calling you shit last time? And talking about that in this game as a sort of "fuck you" justification for your push on me? What changed that perspective enough to get you to make this post?

Smith, you don't matter enough to actually make me pissed. You also lack the necessary experience with me to be a judge of, well, anything, with regards to me(the PRESUMPTION in thinking yourself capable of judging me is what prompted my response, not any anyctually irritation at the conclusion you arrived at).

I also SPECIFICALLY said that WASN'T part of why I was pushing you. I mentioned it because I was figuring out if I was being irrational about the matter as a result of that(ya know, being introspective and working to remove biases), and concluded that I wasn't.

[Cerberus v666]

N1
Vig: couldn't shoot
SK :Chairman Doggo ; Bob ; Odd Night Neapolitan aligned with Bounty Hunters was Killed Night 1 in a biological terror attack
Scum: Siblings Quarrel ; Faye Valentine ; Ascetic Amnesiac Alignment Cop aligned with Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 1
Doc: SQ, ascetic.

N2
Vig: Shot at PV, who was commuting
Scum: Unknown
SK: Unknown
Doc: MariaR

N3
Vig:Socrates ; Fad ; Traitor aligned with the Syndicate was Shot Night 3
Scum: Unknown
SK: Unknown
Doc: Titus

N4
Scum: (Vaxkiller Bus Drive claim, shot aimed at davesaz)Not Fury ; Doohan ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 4
Vig: RachMarie ; Elektra Ovirow ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 4
SK: Unknown
Doc: Gorkington

N5
Scum: MariaR; Ein ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters Shot Night 5
Vig: Rb ;Antonio ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters Shot Night 5
SK: Priscila; Shin ; Bodyguard aligned with the Bounty Hunters Killed Night 5 in a biological terror attack
Doc: Titus

N6
Vig: WhemeStar ; Wen ; Miller; aligned with the Bounty Hunters; Shot Night 6.
Scum: Titus ; Jet Black ; Gunsmith Masonizer; aligned with the Bounty Hunters; Shot Night 6.
SK: Unknown
Doc: No one
D7:
New flavor, probably SK? DrCirno ; Andy von de Oniyate ; Vigilante aligned with the Bounty Hunters ; Died Day 7.

N7:

Sk:unknown
Scum:unknown
Doc: Shiro

Okay, so the one thing that we know is that out of all those missing kills, no more than ONE could have come from davesaz successfully protecting someone. That makes it very probable that the sk actually *is* somehow limited in their killing ability, as shitty for them as that seems. Unless you can see some other possible reason for all the missing sk kills?

Are we at mass claim time? Is it even possible that there's a second, limited doc who's been stopping the SK? That can't be, right, because that's just...ridiculously perfect targeting on their part to always stop the sk on the even nights. :-/

The PV thing bothers the shit out of me. Like, it fits so perfectly with the pattern we've seen, why would SK!PV claim his true ability? Why would he let himself potentially be caught by my lie detect by claiming no action on N1? It just feels like it's such a juicy target that we've been setup to go after. :-/

PV, that's the summary of kill eventa that I put together earlier. If the SK is odd night(or nonconsecutive, whatever), we have two unexplained missing kills, since Dave couldn't have been responsible for more than one of the missing kills other than shiro.

[Cerberus v666]

Smith, the bolded.

Can we do this instead gork?

That last post rings true to me.

VOTE: Smith

Also: Smith, the refusal to lose to list is a combination of personal relationships, and preexisting reads.

I've been calling you scum forever, and thus losing to you would be a major failure on my part to get someone I've been suspicious of lynched. With Drixx and Random, they're my homies, and purely on principle I can't allow them to beat me(ESPECIALLY Drixx, since the record so far is all in my favor).

Nothing personal in your case though. I'll admit to being annoyed at you like 6 months ago or something because you took the time to shit talk me in some game, or in post game analysis of some game, but that's not really related to the reasons I find you likely to be scum

.

I can see how with my phrasing you'd think what you said was what mattered, but as I said(and I say in that quote) it's the fact that you thought you knew enough to have an informed opinion about me.

[Cerberus v666]

Someone who would forget to submit an action on every even night so far?

[Cerberus v666]

Or just to explain the missing kills? At least one of them gork is confident the bebop crew prevented, and he's suggested they may have prevented the other one. I assume by protecting internally on night that didn't have kills resolve.

[Cerberus v666]

N1
Vig: couldn't shoot
SK :Chairman Doggo ; Bob ; Odd Night Neapolitan aligned with Bounty Hunters was Killed Night 1 in a biological terror attack
Scum: Siblings Quarrel ; Faye Valentine ; Ascetic Amnesiac Alignment Cop aligned with Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 1
Doc: SQ, ascetic.

N2
Vig: Shot at PV, who was commuting
Scum: Unknown
SK: Unknown
Doc: MariaR

N3
Vig:Socrates ; Fad ; Traitor aligned with the Syndicate was Shot Night 3
Scum: Unknown
SK: Unknown
Doc: Titus

N4
Scum: (Vaxkiller Bus Drive claim, shot aimed at davesaz)Not Fury ; Doohan ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 4
Vig: RachMarie ; Elektra Ovirow ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters was Shot Night 4
SK: Unknown
Doc: Gorkington

N5
Scum: MariaR; Ein ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters Shot Night 5
Vig: Rb ;Antonio ; Vanilla aligned with the Bounty Hunters Shot Night 5
SK: Priscila; Shin ; Bodyguard aligned with the Bounty Hunters Killed Night 5 in a biological terror attack
Doc: Titus

N6
Vig: WhemeStar ; Wen ; Miller; aligned with the Bounty Hunters; Shot Night 6.
Scum: Titus ; Jet Black ; Gunsmith Masonizer; aligned with the Bounty Hunters; Shot Night 6.
SK: Unknown
Doc: No one
D7:
New flavor, probably SK? DrCirno ; Andy von de Oniyate ; Vigilante aligned with the Bounty Hunters ; Died Day 7.

N7:

Sk:unknown
Scum:unknown
Doc: Shiro

Okay, so the one thing that we know is that out of all those missing kills, no more than ONE could have come from davesaz successfully protecting someone. That makes it very probable that the sk actually *is* somehow limited in their killing ability, as shitty for them as that seems. Unless you can see some other possible reason for all the missing sk kills?

Are we at mass claim time? Is it even possible that there's a second, limited doc who's been stopping the SK? That can't be, right, because that's just...ridiculously perfect targeting on their part to always stop the sk on the even nights. :-/

The PV thing bothers the shit out of me. Like, it fits so perfectly with the pattern we've seen, why would SK!PV claim his true ability? Why would he let himself potentially be caught by my lie detect by claiming no action on N1? It just feels like it's such a juicy target that we've been setup to go after. :-/

PV, that's the summary of kill eventa that I put together earlier. If the SK is odd night(or nonconsecutive, whatever), we have two unexplained missing kills, since Dave couldn't have been responsible for more than one of the missing kills other than shiro.

Has to be limited SK. Either X-shot (probably), because every-4-night-SK sounds stupid. Or some other restriction we havent figured out yet (something about gamestate??)

Pedit- who else was confirmed saved?

X shot seems pretty ridiculous. The odd night thing feels much more likely than limited shots.
Gorkington seems confident that the bebop crew stopped an attempted kill on DrCirno on N3. Which means they also stopped the groupscum kill on N2, and that means davesaz stopped an attempted kill on Titus on N3.

Alternatively, Davesaz prevented the kill on MariaR on N2, and both groupscum and sk shot at DrCirno N3, or bebop stopped the kill on N2, and on N3 both groupscum and sk shot at Titus.