Real Folk Blues Rematch [GAME OVER]
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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What he's described as the answers to how things would work is still different from how jj said they'd work.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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@smith: do you find it likely that a blue scum team is gunsmith immune as a whole, or do you simply think that carnelian fake claimed miller as a partially investigative immune member of the same scum team where I'm also gunsmith immune?GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Hey dave, I'd really appreciate some broad strokes thoughts from you. Overarching setup thoughts, most likely town/scum opinion, and preferred lynch/vig would be great to hear.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Why is the fact that you believe it's unlikely ari is a particular brand of scum even relevant, to your worldview? I get that to those who think we're talking about singleball with sk, your point(which is basically meaningless, because it's also likely that someone who wasn't super invested in the game whose entire team was crushed, leaving them as the last hope, would feel too overwhelmed to feel they could do their slot justice), means that he can't be scum(though also, in that universe, he's not as alone and thus less likely to replace out because of an inability to carry the game, and more likely to replace out because hthe act of replacing out isn't going to possibly make his team lose, so it's mostly null still), to YOU the possibility that he's blue scum should make your thoughts on his being red scum irrelevant as far as clearing him is concerned.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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I actually agree with smith about the value of checking wheme btw. I think the only way wheme is scum is as a blue traitor. I can easily see the fake miller claim as a way of signaling to your team+making it unlikely either team would shoot at you. So, I don't think using a gunsmith on him actually removes any of the scenarios where he's actually scum.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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I don't know of it reads genuine, but I was thinking this morning that I'm no longer sure if I'm pushing smith because he's the best option, or because I want to "win" this exchange by getting my way, and am not willing to risk giving up on the push in case I was right the whole time.In post 11594, Gorkington wrote:vote: aristophanes
i might try to case this tonight if i have time.
i think me butting heads with smith about what we think the setup is probably me being dumb and not accepting that someone else having a conception of what the setup is to such a strong degree as possible.
kind of got into the same headspace with nacho in king's landing and im thinking i need to step back from that.
frustration from smith here reads pretty genuine.
I feel that things are polarized enough around smith that a scum flip from him practically solvea the rest of the game, but I might just be being optimistic, and idk what a town flip from him accomplishes for us.
It rubs me very wrong, in a very visceral sense, that smith predicated his exclusion from being a vig shot option upon where flipping blue scum, when wheme is, if scum, almost certainly the slot blue scum can most afford to lose given the risky miller claim+likelihood that it's a traitor slot anyways.
I just don't know. :/ The best thing we could do, for the overall game state, is put aristophanes to l-1, give intent to hammer, and stall while the mods find a replacement for gamma, since aristo will be lynched, but I don't know if that's practical, or even wise.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Titus, that's why I said I'd if it's practical. Like, if we put him to l-1 and I PM the mod and post here that I will always hammer him and they shouldn't bother replacing him, are they allowed to just skip replacing him? :/GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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*sigh* except the other game had only 5 syndicate in it, and this game almost certainly has at least six.....which means making these assumptions about the setup is dumb.
GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Scum who fake claimed miller, then doubled down on it by claiming their actual scum flavor?GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Smith seems to be willing to defend him, but I don't think he strongly townreads him.
Let's talk about who we'd want gammas replacement to shoot in the ari lynch scenario.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Dave, are you deliberately ignoring my previous question?GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Don't think it matters. High probability he dies tonight, and his targets have all been within the obvious pool of most likely shots. I think hearing his thoughts has value. Which is why I asked for them..GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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What do you mean?
GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Aristo and wheme would have been the best shots, most likely, assuming that shot is real. Wheme because miller policy, and Aristo because he's a likely a compromise since we have your slot filled now.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Damnit Narna, what is it with people blowing up shit I'm doing??? *sigh*
I'd have much rather had him confirm that was a legitimate shot attempt than had you show up and give him cover for what could have easily just been an sk fucking up his fake claim.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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There was no chance he was gonna get lynched, I just wanted that shit all official like, without his excuse being spoon fed to him.In post 11755, Insomniacs wrote:
We have what? A day to find a lynch? It felt like a waste of time for town to get confused on this and wait for a flip. Isn't the sk supposedly bioterror? But yeah, whoops. It still looks like a real attempt to me. I just figured they didn't know their shot was used. My bad, we cool?Cerberus v666 wrote:Damnit Narna, what is it with people blowing up shit I'm doing??? *sigh*
I'd have much rather had him confirm that was a legitimate shot attempt than had you show up and give him cover for what could have easily just been an sk fucking up his fake claim.
-Narna
Two sks+ a large team is also quite viable, so that slot is far from cleared.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Anyways. So, compromise Aristo, DrC shoots wheme *or* smith? Reasonable and informative pairing of potential kills? I LD Insomniacs or Vedith. Titus gunsmiths idk who.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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GunSmith within random/ginngie/S&R/MV? Pick a pair, and go with them? And our bus driver and doctors make their choices with this information known?GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Bad associatives with flipped scum, beetlejuicing prior to today, attempt to state that he shouldn't be an option for being shot if wheme flipped scum, when wheme is the most bussable slot in the game if scum. Those are also the two wagons that had the most potential today besides aristophanes, therefore the most informative options as well as the town consensus, based on votes placed today.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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I feel like pairs is better than trios at this stage, because we want some number of vts for vaxkiller to utilize for bus driving without interfering with other claimed actions.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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@smith: I'm basically guaranteed to be alive in endgame, it's just what I do, and usually I don't have a gunsmith clear on me to help make that happen.
Regarding your objection: sure, that's the weakest reason to be suspicious of you, and I've freely admired that before. Everything else came up long before you made that suggestion, which pinged me, so I threw it in.if you reada couple posts back, I even said I have no idea what we'd get out of a town flip from you.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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I wonder if I had someone list all the claims made so far with the phrasing: "I do not know that x is lying about y", if it would be viable. Probably not, too AI in context, unless scum have made no false claims.
*sigh*GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Oh, if you want to know why I refuse to go after wheme before you, it's because if the scenario I'm suspicious of is true, it will be harder to get you lynched after he flips than it is now, and also because I find miller's and other policy kills to be far better vig shots than lynches, because being on the wagon is pretty uninformative no matter how they flip. It's the reason why I didn't want to actually lynch jj, but wanted him shot. His wagons useless and compromised.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Because the noise level from lynching rb was hellacious, and I had more confidence in gamma shooting rb than in him shooting jj.In post 11845, Titus wrote:
Then why did you practically force me to lynch jj rather than vote rb?In post 11841, Cerberus v666 wrote:Oh, if you want to know why I refuse to go after wheme before you, it's because if the scenario I'm suspicious of is true, it will be harder to get you lynched after he flips than it is now, and also because I find miller's and other policy kills to be far better vig shots than lynches, because being on the wagon is pretty uninformative no matter how they flip. It's the reason why I didn't want to actually lynch jj, but wanted him shot. His wagons useless and compromised.
@smith: if blue scum exists, I expect there to be a good degree of gunsmith immunity among them, given the kill flavor. I expect that to be a fake clear on you in this scenario, tbh.
There's also nothing funny or significant about you being accused of both, because until we know for certain if we're in full multiball, both are viable.
pedit: indeed gork.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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I was kinda hoping you'd give that case on ari. Lynching him is good, but I wanted to hear the reasons behind it before we go to night, since you're a likely kill.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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@Titus: I answered your question(an answer which should have been obvious), but to make this painfully simple for you to comprehend: rb+ a miller needed to die for the sake of PoE and game sanity, and a jj lynch was the most likely way to have that happen. A wheme lynch would have worked too in the same way, but jj was always a better suspect for scum than wheme imo. So, even though I specifically called for the vig to shoot the miller's over the next couple nights, I capitulated on the lynch so the right slots would die.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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VOTE: AristophanesGTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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I, on the other hand, have a great track record of reading random, but unfortunately I've never seen him as scum.In post 11895, Randomnamechange wrote:
titus im p sure has a bad track record of reading me.In post 11886, Gorkington wrote:what about his replace-out makes it seem like hes town who wants to help his team vs scum? you realize that scum will typically feel more guilty about letting their team down than town right?
why are random and vedith scum? do you have any kind of reliable track record with reading them or reading players like them?
VOTE: ari
@dc btw titus is lying about being a masoniser. players they neghbourised dont get a confirmation of her alignment.
Some things feel like they might be a bit off this game for random, BUT I've also interacted with him in a different way than normal. :/GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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You were low detected about your ability to recruit certain flavors to the pt, NOT about your role as a whole, and in a fashion which could have arguably guaranteed a "true" result(though I'm certain you were telling the truth about that part of your role).In post 11907, Titus wrote:
I was lie detected on this by Cerb n2.In post 11903, Randomnamechange wrote:
yes because it is titus lying.In post 11901, DrCirno wrote:
Does it matter?In post 11898, Randomnamechange wrote:thats not a masonizer then.
Serious question
This is scum opportunism.
I believe random just wants to make it clear to DrCirno that there is no mechanical reason to believe you're town, unless we prove singleball.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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I also find it more likely than not that this game is singleball, but I think we should be playing as though the setup is 6/5(4)/21(22), when it comes to deciding how close we are to lylo.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Yep. When I say singleball or multiball, I'm referring to groupscum, not solo third party anti-town.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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For what it's worth, Math, I've NEVER fake claimed with regards to my abilities as scum. Drixx and I considered ways to claim our role block in SU2 in a fashion that made it less threatening, but even then we were planning on claiming the block itself, just not the duration/triggers.
Point being, fabricating a power is something I'm extremely unlikely to do, especially not on D1 in a very large game when I had no reason to risk being counterclaimed. Even if I were scum, I would be scum with a lie detector, which I would be giving you honest results with. That's not to say I couldn't have a non-consecutive lie detect, and some othere power, and be lying about being even-night, but there's basically no chance my lie detect doesn't exist, at least, to anyone else familiar with my scum play.
VC?GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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And yes, I know I threw around the idea of taking credit for different abilities within our team in FFT, but again...none of that happened because of the concern about the risk of being counterclaimed by zodiac powers, or the associative in the event one of us was flipped.In post 11942, Cerberus v666 wrote:For what it's worth, Math, I've NEVER fake claimed with regards to my abilities as scum. Drixx and I considered ways to claim our role block in SU2 in a fashion that made it less threatening, but even then we were planning on claiming the block itself, just not the duration/triggers.
Point being, fabricating a power is something I'm extremely unlikely to do, especially not on D1 in a very large game when I had no reason to risk being counterclaimed. Even if I were scum, I would be scum with a lie detector, which I would be giving you honest results with. That's not to say I couldn't have a non-consecutive lie detect, and some othere power, and be lying about being even-night, but there's basically no chance my lie detect doesn't exist, at least, to anyone else familiar with my scum play.
VC?GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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We've had no signs of passive protections except PV's claimed commute. An odd night commuter is possible, as are BP, within both town or scum factions, since we've also seen no sign of kill immunity from flipped scum. Such things are the most likely explanation for the missing details.In post 11943, Titus wrote:
It's n3 that has me concerned. I can plot out every missing kill with SK or second scum faction but n3.In post 11938, DrCirno wrote:
Just letting you know that multiple kill sources with only one flavorkill suggests SK.In post 11927, Insomniacs wrote:Except ya know the kill flavor and how this game is going.
And how this game is going?
N1: One flavorkill, one scumkill
N2: No kill
N3: One vigkill
N4: One scumkill, one vigkill
N5: One scumkill, one vigkill, One flavorkill
Given the claimed roles, please explain how these can be the kills from multiball.
Of course, I can explain this with my theory of singleball with PV5 being SK.
N1: Scum killed, doc missed, and SK killed.
N2: Vigshot went AWOL by shooting commute, scumkill prevented by doc
N3: scumkill prevented by doc. SK prob got roleblocked or sth
N4: SK couldn't kill cos lolcommuting
N5: All kills presentGTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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What about my post made you think kill immunity could only exist within scum? Scum wouldn't know why their kill failed, so it's fairly reasonable for then to not push someone who they failed a kill on.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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I also think our watcher/tracker should claim, but you said they shouldn't.In post 11948, Titus wrote:
You'd think with the noose tightening, town would claim it. Either Vax bussed into kill immune scum who tried to kill dave or a scum nk is directly involved.In post 11947, Cerberus v666 wrote:What about my post made you think kill immunity could only exist within scum? Scum wouldn't know why their kill failed, so it's fairly reasonable for then to not push someone who they failed a kill on.
I imagine whatever thought process led to you opposing that claim at the start of this day phase is the same reason why whoever got shot, if town, wouldn't have claimed responsibility.
Hell, why wouldn't scum have claimed responsibility, to get the credit of someone having shot at them??GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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I knew you were Jet or Spike before N3, who both make lots of sense as investigatives, AND math was making a bunch of noise about you crumbing that you were a gunsmith on D1. I wouldn't put it past scum to mark you as the gunsmith.In post 11960, Titus wrote:
To assume that, that means red scum would have seen through that I was the actual gunsmith,In post 11958, DrCirno wrote:My theory is that SK kill got blocked by red scum.beforen3. I'll look for that, but I don't see that evidence.
Even if that is true, you'd expect an n4 push. The only one I see that can qualify is random on mhsmith0. Although Almost's last readwall should be analyzed to see if it's possible he left the clue in there.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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OR to at least realize there was some bullshit going on with the claims and that they couldn't trust that blocking MariaR would be effective at stopping the checks.In post 11965, Cerberus v666 wrote:
I knew you were Jet or Spike before N3, who both make lots of sense as investigatives, AND math was making a bunch of noise about you crumbing that you were a gunsmith on D1. I wouldn't put it past scum to mark you as the gunsmith.In post 11960, Titus wrote:
To assume that, that means red scum would have seen through that I was the actual gunsmith,In post 11958, DrCirno wrote:My theory is that SK kill got blocked by red scum.beforen3. I'll look for that, but I don't see that evidence.
Even if that is true, you'd expect an n4 push. The only one I see that can qualify is random on mhsmith0. Although Almost's last readwall should be analyzed to see if it's possible he left the clue in there.
Also possible that they simply hit someone who was kill immune, or that we have a bioterror doctor as well whose doing as good a job as davesaz. *shrug*GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Lol, because rhe only reason ari wasn't already being compromise wagoned is people like me didn't want to lynch him and be left with a replacement vig we couldn't discuss shots with. Once we had a replacement for gamma, an aristo lynch is appealing based on the lack of redeeming traits to his play, as well as saving the mod s the trouble of finding yet another replacement.In post 11980, Insomniacs wrote:I am making dinner.
Wheme should be lynched I don't see why Titus switched to Ari despite low time left on day it is like she wants to force a NL.
--Math
Math, I'd love to know what pings you about me. You've seen me as groupscum once, in a rather unique situation.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Smith is also up on this vca thing, I'd like to see his thoughts as well.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Dave, are you suggesting that wheme/insomniacs could be a team, with insomniacs as a traitor of that same team? How do you explain insomniacs insistence on the removal of wheme?
Pedit: yeah, his slot is completely useless and unsortable..GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Fair enough, that's because I'm phoning it in this game and have been since D1, I've opened isos once, and that was to look at where's this phase. *shrug* Understandable perspective though.In post 11996, Insomniacs wrote:
Mainly it is how you are mentioning some people and not others. In the post game you mentioned you rarely defend your partner on D1 yet I really haven't seen a read progression typical of town!youIn post 11983, Cerberus v666 wrote:
Lol, because rhe only reason ari wasn't already being compromise wagoned is people like me didn't want to lynch him and be left with a replacement vig we couldn't discuss shots with. Once we had a replacement for gamma, an aristo lynch is appealing based on the lack of redeeming traits to his play, as well as saving the mod s the trouble of finding yet another replacement.In post 11980, Insomniacs wrote:I am making dinner.
Wheme should be lynched I don't see why Titus switched to Ari despite low time left on day it is like she wants to force a NL.
--Math
Math, I'd love to know what pings you about me. You've seen me as groupscum once, in a rather unique situation.
Between that and the lie detectorness and just how conversations with you feel off.
--MathGTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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@gork: the yume wouldn't fake claim miller thing is weaker given that Titus pointed out it was suggested as a line in a recent scum game of hers, so it could very well be something she was specifically pushing herself to try. As much as I want it to be as pure clear like I thought it was, it's not quite there with that revelation. Him begging for the rope is pretty town though, given that the timing comes just after I, probably the most vocal opponent of his lynch, admit that I'm not so sure if I'm pushing smith for good enough reasons. I'd think he'd be somewhat aware enough as scum to not try that line with players he doesn't know that well, and I know he doesn't know me at least.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Regarding the PV SK thing: weak supposition imo. Limited kills on a SK in a game this size seems crippling, even with limited action immunity. He was willing to outright claim, when lie detectable, that he could commute on specifically night 2, night 4, andthat it was triggered. I suppose unlimited shots, and the ability to commute on even nights in exchange for his kill, might be viable?
Pedit: aristo is l-2 vax.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Jj claimed to always return guilty to all types of checks.
Wheme claimed a more classic miller, who would show up as able to kill, but without a gu , and who wiuldnt be guiltied by the likes of trackers.
Both claimed that results on them would show them as an enemy.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Did he?
I kept asking him to clarify that point, because he was assuming he would show up with a gun, but I don't remember him saying he wouldn't?
@DrC: Jjs flavor fit for miller, whemes flavor only fits for miller if there is no second second scum team, because it's definitely a villain character, but not in the same group as our scum flips, and thus not as likely fake claim.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Gork. Put your vote back on aristo. It's more likely to happen than a pivot to PV.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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...
My vote is staying where it is, but I'll move as necessary to ensure a lynch happens before day end.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Don't fucking shoot ari.
Seriously. If we don't lynch him, the mods will freeze the night until they find a replacemwnt. That replacement will read the game during the night, then be shot before they can say anything.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Pv sk isn't impossible, but I don't like the theory, as I said before. It makes sense, I'll grant you that, but the limited kills for a SK seems pretty bad.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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I'm lie detecting math or Vedith.
Dr C is vigging between wheme, smith, and MV.
Titus is gu smjthing between random, and I don't remember who else.
That's it.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Please restate this post without the question.In post 11314, Insomniacs wrote:
We're VT or Goon. We have taken no actions, and we've had zero targets. Was that necessary, or were you talking to someone else?In post 11312, Vaxkiller wrote:I dunno, y would math push this had to be wrong? On the other hand, can we have targets?
-NarnaGTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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QFTIn post 12181, Gorkington wrote:should still make pool in case maf doctor or something stupid.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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>< I much preferred your original pool..GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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You should probably explain what ginngie quoted.
And yeah, Im pretty sure I voted myself on D1 because I was over it already.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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It overlaps woth my lie detect. Please remove insomniacs and replace rhem with someone else.
Or else suggest a new pool for me, noting I have limited targeting abilities.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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More likely 20:6:4/5. The 6 team had a traitor that could never kill or communicate and autoloss when he was the last member, so 5.5, and a slot that gets autoguiltied when his teammates get shot at, so it's not quite as unbalanced as it looks.GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Or rather, a slot thwt, when he bodyguard works, autoguilties his teammates. :pGTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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It was NU, pretty much.
GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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Cerberus v666 Let's Be Reasonable
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Negative utility.In post 12234, Ginngie wrote:NU?GTK a me, currently live, this may be your only chance!
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