Micro 812 - The Arena II - Game Over
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had the same thought about post 31In post 47, Scioness Sajj wrote:
Are you assuming NM is town?In post 31, ZZZX wrote:NM is both one of the easiest yet hardest players to lynch in general. So I am expecting someone who picked him day 1 to know enough about him.
Otherwise it's a weird pick
In other news Blackstar is scummy-
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What is 'delaying the game'? There's a different deadline for choosing gladiate and choosing lynchIn post 58, ZZZX wrote:If we suspect he is delaying the game as a scum tactic he is one of the vote-able parties regardless.-
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I don't think it's possible to be both of these things at the same timeIn post 73, BlackStar wrote:I think it was a desperate argument that was mostly created to try and get everyone talking, and I also think that he believes what he said-
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Let's hear it
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I know there's a lot to take in but let us know when you've processed it all.In post 106, ZZZX wrote:Had issues connecting to MS, finally solved today. let me read up.
Even if you're town if you're going to get picked again and do dumb challenges I don't see why we should keep you around and I'm not seeing a case against scionessNot_Mafia wrote:And then I decided to challenge him
VOTE: not_mafia-
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Why?In post 168, ceejayvinoya wrote:I think scum picking himself N1 is unlikely
I probably wouldn't pick myself, I might pick my partner thoughIn post 168, ceejayvinoya wrote:@everyone. Answer me. If you were scum, would you pick your teammate or yourself for d1 gladiator? Honestly-
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Why didn't you trust your initial feeling that scioness sajj was town yesterday?In post 193, BlackStar wrote:I went down a WIFOM rabbit hole when I saw that you were challenged but I decided to trust my initial feeling that flubbernugget is town-
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You're really on the sidelines, never committing to anything this gameIn post 220, Something_Smart wrote:
Why?In post 215, Dunnstral wrote:Gonna break the cover of my reads to say something smart is scum and we should probably gladiate them tomorrow.-
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Came into today thinking S_S was a good pick for scum, but I didn't pick him because I didn't think I'd be gladiator if he was scum, if that makes sense. There's actually a good chance that he's town since I got gladiated here
ZZZX also looks like scum from associations with the N_M wagons on day 1 and 2-
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What does this meanIn post 236, Something_Smart wrote:Still would like to hear from ZZZX before deciding how to proceed.-
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I don't have this impression of myself...In post 268, Something_Smart wrote:In my experience Dunn is both very willing to bus and good at making it look natural.-
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And if I were mafia I wouldn't soft clear you for no reasonIn post 264, Something_Smart wrote:But you think I pick Dunn as gladiator day 3, knowing that if he gladiates me I almost certainly lose on the spot?
And I do put some weight into that so
VOTE: Myloninja13-
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I think it was just me that was going to challenge him, but I agree that he's townIn post 276, Irrelephant11 wrote:Well anyway it's certainly not something_smart
Scum tried D1 and D2 to choose someone who would challenge him, so he's town
Can you talk about why you think flubbernugget was going to pick something smart in your mind for day 2, or why you think that was the case
Also I get that you mean day 2 and day 3-
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Either don't be predictable with who you gladiate or don't share reads at allIn post 274, Irrelephant11 wrote:How do you share reads in this setup without helping mafia more than town-
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I was gonna say It's kind of weirding me out that everyone is so willing to die
Yesterday I went to see if I ever said anything about not being predictable with votes in the last run of the setup but I hadn't
I've got an answer for thisIn post 306, Something_Smart wrote:Well, now that you know he was scum, why do you think they DID pick him?-
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What do you think?In post 327, ceejayvinoya wrote:who to lynch today for starters.-
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In post 309, Dunnstral wrote:Yesterday I went to see if I ever said anything about not being predictable with votes in the last run of the setup but I hadn't-
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Alright so I was townreading Flubber on day 1, and then he gladiated scum - I feel if that were a scum move he'd ride the credit harder rather than fading into the background
At the same time I said Something_Smart was scummy at one point (I believe was an unlikely lynch too) and I got gladiated which I've said points to Something_Smart as town
Irrelephant can you give a situation where either or both of these people could be scum-
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This feels kind of weird at the start of the day, you could have gladiated SS during the night with this logicIn post 364, Irrelephant11 wrote:Though at the same time it could be SS because I was chosen after making it v obvious I'd choose flub
I was thinking about why you get chosen as gladiator and what it means but I think it looked like everyone else was gladiating you (sounds like SS may have gladiated flubber but never hinted at that)
If that happens then the gladiator tonight has to get the right person or we lose (unless scum is gladiator of course)Irrelephant11 wrote:The one where I'm this lynch and the game keeps going
a.k.a we're at the point where we probably benefit more from talking about all our current reads-
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Right now neither of themIn post 380, Irrelephant11 wrote:Since you want to lynch me, which of the other two do you think is scum?
And it's not just tomorrow, if game goes on and I get picked gladiator and gladiate town we lose so I need to have something in mind-
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I need to think about which is more likely in this case, flubbernugget gladiating his scum buddy or something_smart picking me as gladiator when it looked like I was going for himIn post 384, Irrelephant11 wrote:I know, I meant "which if you had to choose"? So we could talk about that-
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This is a weird rule btwIn post 1, BNL wrote:If a lynch is not achieved before the deadline, plurality will take place, and the player with more votes will be lynched. If both players in the Arena have an equal number of votes,the one who most recently had more votes will be lynched.If none were voted at all in the entirety of that Day, neither will be lynched, but the Mafia will get a factional nightkill the next Night.
I'm trying to imagine me and ss voting and unvoting at deadline-
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In post 397, Irrelephant11 wrote:Unique logic that seems hard to think of as scum
Or a smart way to avoid going up against someone who might win a challenge hmmm
I didn't have SS as town until that happened though, I don't think they would have won th challenge
I don't see why you say hammering Not_Mafia day 2 was scummy-
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How much have you readIn post 393, Flubbernugget wrote:Not fully caught up
It's really weird that you gladiated me and are pressuring ss as scum-
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This is a surprise because I thought you were leaning towards ss as scumIn post 419, Irrelephant11 wrote:
Actually this is v true.In post 416, Something_Smart wrote:(In fact it would be really weird to challenge Not_Mafia after it was the consensus that Not_Mafia was town for being chosen, so maybe it does in fact demonstrate extra information.)
My dunnstral paranoia is gone, his game looks the most like I would want town to look this game. Looking at things from a "who might be scum" the answer was "Everyone", but looking at things from "whose game includes the most towny moments that would be hard to fake as scum" and the answer is 100% dunn, followed by ss.
I'm somewhere around ~66% flub/30% ss/3% dunnstral
Dunnstral, if you think SS is more likely scum than flubber you should definitely vote me. If you think flubber is more likely than SS I'm not as sure (given you thinking I'm most likely scum). Obviously I would personally like to stay alive somewhat because fmpov that allows for more opportunities to hit scum, but I also want to avoid the situation where I come to lylo as the scummiest looking player and end up in a tvt, which does not allow for town win at all. So like from your pov Dunn I might be the better lynch, but I'd really love to hear you settle on SSvFlub before you lynch me.
@Mod, given the number of prods and two of us being v/la over the weekend can I request 24 hour extension?
Actually you say as much in post 415 above, so what changed for you?-
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In post 408, Flubbernugget wrote:I just finished reading up, but I don't remember who irrelephant is scum reading, and they way he's starting to consider a small handful of players scum is anti town at best
I can't tell if 408 was a scumread on irrelephant or if you think it was just anti-townIn post 410, Flubbernugget wrote:The best I have for a scum read atm is ss over the early game but that's really meh-
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In post 423, Irrelephant11 wrote:I'm pretty paranoid as town and it makes my reads fluctuate and it makes it harder for me to be townread. I'm working on it
You don't need to try to be townread as town, reads changing isn't a bad thing-
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I guess but I feel like half the game rolled over and said they wouldn't mind being lynched after the first scum lynch so they could be blending in with thatIn post 416, Something_Smart wrote:I townread Irrelephant for the same reason I townread Mylo; he showed significant support for a plan that would lose him the game if carried out.-
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Who is most likely to pick me gladiator as scum, me or SS?In post 437, Irrelephant11 wrote:Wow this seemed like the least likely scenario, me not being in the duo
Make your cases I’m no troll, I’m town
SS picked me because he thought I would pick you, winning him the game. Likewise, if it were me I'd make the gladiator Irrele"Dunn has a 3% chance of being scum"phant for the win
On mobile and about to get off but here are some things to think on:
-SS was kind of frozen while NM got votes on day 1, then didn't say anything when scioness sajj got a quick turnaround in votes
-SS insisted that he'd only pick gladiator randomly d1 as scum, kind of avoided the question
-The main reason SS wasn't lynched is because it looked like I would gladiate him but why would I do that as scum? I don't know why or how this worked out for him, all I can say is maybe it was a desperate gambit or he knew my meta more than I thought
Reminder, SS never wanted to sit here in this lylo with me, he wanted me to pick you
-When SS was gladiator it was against ceejay who was the de facto lynch - in other words super safe for him
-Yesterday we didn't really interact but he really wanted to get flubber when I displayed a scumread on you = setup to make me gladiator?
Amusing in retrospectSomething_Smart wrote:
Clearly not...In post 417, Flubbernugget wrote:Scum has a lot of controll over not getting their partner lynched
I think it is pretty clear that SS is scum
If you want to know anything else like why I picked SS tonight and not you or who my gladiates would be or why I can answer tomorrow-
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BlackStar, ZZZX, ceejayvinoya, ceejayvinoya, Irrelephant11, Something_SmartIn post 444, Irrelephant11 wrote:
I will want this, yesIn post 438, Dunnstral wrote:If you want to know anything else like why I picked SS tonight and not you or who my gladiates would be or why I can answer tomorrow
Day 2 BlackStar because when I tried to talk to him about the wagons he basically ignored me and hammered
I explained why I picked ZZZX on day 3
Ceejay on day 4 because I was looking at the people who voted scioness sajj day 1
You day 5 because you seemed most likely to me by poe
Today I picked Something_Smart because I really didn't think you would pick me because I didn't think you'd think you could beat me so I went for Something_Smart - I did have some suspicion on him yesterday (I'd say around 25%) that I just never voiced because I didn't think it was beneficial (you 2 already both seemed to sr him more than me so there was no use revealing my thoughts to). Like I said yesterday he didn't want me to lose my scumread on you and wanted to end things with me gladiating you for his win.
This isn't true, nobody was talking about ZZZX, there was a sort of consensus that ceejay was getting lynchedIn post 440, Something_Smart wrote:
I'm not going to try to refute this entire thing, I'll just point out that this is true for Dunn as well (against ZZZX).In post 438, Dunnstral wrote:-When SS was gladiator it was against ceejay who was the de facto lynch - in other words super safe for him-
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What do you mean it's the only reason you kept me alive? When did you ever have the chance to lynch me? Because it looks like you're thinking about gladiates in your head hereIn post 449, Something_Smart wrote:I mean, it's a wifomy game. You can't really avoid arguments like that.
I think the key point of this game was Day 3, where Dunn was chosen as gladiator after saying he suspected me. This was after Not_Mafia was dead, so if I were scum and Dunn had chosen me, I would have almost certainly lost on the spot. Dunn himself pointed this out, which was the reason that both of us were left alone. That's really the only reason I didn't consider Dunn as scum; because if scum he essentially towncleared me for no reason by doing that. And that's a reason equally valid from an objective perspective-- if he were scum he would have just made things mechanically MUCH harder on himself.
This logic was valid right up until the dawn of this day, when Dunn essentially retracted his claim that I am clear from that pick. Since he is no longer calling me town for it, that objective reason why EVERYONE should have been townreading him was made invalid, since the motive in keeping me around when there is suspicion on me is very clearly EASIER for scum-Dunn if he does plan to eventually add me back to the lynchpool.
I am by no means saying that he would not have done this as town, but that was the only reasonIkept him alive, at least. Now that it's invalid, it requires no assumptions of extraordinary play, gambiting, or guessing to assume that Dunn is scum; whereas, to assume that I'm scum still assumes that I gladiated into the only person who expressed a scumread on me, and a fairly decisive scumread at that, in the hope that he would get out-WIFOMed and target someone else. (Not to mention that Flubber was chosen D2 who had ALSO expressed some suspicion on me.)
Is there anything that you think makes Dunn towny?
There's another reason I'm townread it's because day 1 I voted NM and I'll outline it here:
This is the 1st vote, it's 4 to lynch
My vote here brings it to 2-0 for not_mafia to be lynchedIn post 118, Dunnstral wrote:
I know there's a lot to take in but let us know when you've processed it all.In post 106, ZZZX wrote:Had issues connecting to MS, finally solved today. let me read up.
Even if you're town if you're going to get picked again and do dumb challenges I don't see why we should keep you around and I'm not seeing a case against scionessNot_Mafia wrote:And then I decided to challenge him
VOTE: not_mafia
What happens next couldn't have been predicted: 3 town players vote scioness sajj one after another and derail the NM wagon that was gaining momentum.
I reach out to Blackstar and ask him what he thinks, he brushes me off and hammers scioness sajj
Something_Smart is kind of frozen during this whole thing, he doesn't seem to have anything relevant to say regarding the wagons here-
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This:In post 457, Irrelephant11 wrote:SS my question was more “what other information helps me solve this game?”
Dunn if you can think of anything else go for it
I think he thinks he is going to have to go against me at this point and is setting up for itIn post 268, Something_Smart wrote:In my experience Dunn is both very willing to bus and good at making it look natural.
I don't see any bus warning signs but I also don't see anything that makes it unlikely.-
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In post 416, Something_Smart wrote:And I don't think Flubber deserves much credit for challenging Not_Mafia, because Not_Mafia is someone who rarely gets near endgame as scum. (In fact it would be really weird to challenge Not_Mafia after it was the consensus that Not_Mafia was town for being chosen, so maybe it does in fact demonstrate extra information.)
And thisSomething_Smart wrote:Like I said before with Flubber, I don't think Dunn's bussing of Not_Mafia on day 1 means much (since Not_Mafia is mostly a deadweight partner and low-content people tend to be lynched in nightless games), and in fact it might show that he knew more than he was supposed to, since voting Not_Mafia there really didn't make much sense.
You should look at days 1 and 2 when the NM wagon was forming and see how SS acted towards that