Micro 812 - The Arena II - Game Over

[Dunnstral]

He's saying that since you considered what each pick would point to, you'd have your own optimal gladiator pick, vs "pick at random"

[Dunnstral]

NM is both one of the easiest yet hardest players to lynch in general. So I am expecting someone who picked him day 1 to know enough about him.

Otherwise it's a weird pick

Are you assuming NM is town?

had the same thought about post 31

In other news Blackstar is scummy

[Dunnstral]

If we suspect he is delaying the game as a scum tactic he is one of the vote-able parties regardless.

What is 'delaying the game'? There's a different deadline for choosing gladiate and choosing lynch

[Dunnstral]

I think it was a desperate argument that was mostly created to try and get everyone talking, and I also think that he believes what he said

I don't think it's possible to be both of these things at the same time

[Dunnstral]

We need N_M to give some indication of what he's thinking here

[Dunnstral]

I guess I stand corrected and we are running out of lynch time while we wait

[Dunnstral]

Weird challenge

[Dunnstral]

Weird challenge

I think I understand it

Let's hear it

[Dunnstral]

Had issues connecting to MS, finally solved today. let me read up.

I know there's a lot to take in but let us know when you've processed it all.

And then I decided to challenge him

Even if you're town if you're going to get picked again and do dumb challenges I don't see why we should keep you around and I'm not seeing a case against scioness

VOTE: not_mafia

[Dunnstral]

Why did you pick scioness sajj?

[Dunnstral]

Why should that sequence on posts make me want to vote Scioness Sajj?

[Dunnstral]

That's not really an asnwer

[Dunnstral]

Weird wagon movement going on right now, I'd think if both of these guys are town mafia are more likely to want Scioness Sajj voted out today allowing them to pick NM in the future or for wifom.

I'll keep the specifics of my reads close to my chest until the next gladiator is chosen at least

[Dunnstral]

What are you responding to?

[Dunnstral]

I think scum picking himself N1 is unlikely

Why?

@everyone. Answer me. If you were scum, would you pick your teammate or yourself for d1 gladiator? Honestly

I probably wouldn't pick myself, I might pick my partner though

[Dunnstral]

Blackstar, what are you thinking?

[Dunnstral]

I went down a WIFOM rabbit hole when I saw that you were challenged but I decided to trust my initial feeling that flubbernugget is town

Why didn't you trust your initial feeling that scioness sajj was town yesterday?

[Dunnstral]

Ok but then he didn't explain anything and you unvoted him?

[Dunnstral]

I'm here, don't know what to do today

[Dunnstral]

Gonna break the cover of my reads to say something smart is scum and we should probably gladiate them tomorrow.

[Dunnstral]

Gonna break the cover of my reads to say something smart is scum and we should probably gladiate them tomorrow.

Why?

You're really on the sidelines, never committing to anything this game

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Not Mafia

[Dunnstral]

Came into today thinking S_S was a good pick for scum, but I didn't pick him because I didn't think I'd be gladiator if he was scum, if that makes sense. There's actually a good chance that he's town since I got gladiated here
ZZZX also looks like scum from associations with the N_M wagons on day 1 and 2

[Dunnstral]

Who is scum?

Who should the gladiator choose after this?

[Dunnstral]

Still would like to hear from ZZZX before deciding how to proceed.

What does this mean

[Dunnstral]

In my experience Dunn is both very willing to bus and good at making it look natural.

I don't have this impression of myself...

[Dunnstral]

But you think I pick Dunn as gladiator day 3, knowing that if he gladiates me I almost certainly lose on the spot?

And if I were mafia I wouldn't soft clear you for no reason
And I do put some weight into that so

VOTE: Myloninja13

[Dunnstral]

Well anyway it's certainly not something_smart

Scum tried D1 and D2 to choose someone who would challenge him, so he's town

I think it was just me that was going to challenge him, but I agree that he's town

Can you talk about why you think flubbernugget was going to pick something smart in your mind for day 2, or why you think that was the case

Also I get that you mean day 2 and day 3

[Dunnstral]

How do you share reads in this setup without helping mafia more than town

Either don't be predictable with who you gladiate or don't share reads at all

[Dunnstral]

What about flubbernugget? He gladiated scum

[Dunnstral]

He's saying it points to ss as town

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE:
Gonna research something

[Dunnstral]

I was gonna say It's kind of weirding me out that everyone is so willing to die

Yesterday I went to see if I ever said anything about not being predictable with votes in the last run of the setup but I hadn't

Well, now that you know he was scum, why do you think they DID pick him?

I've got an answer for this

[Dunnstral]

who to lynch today for starters.

What do you think?

[Dunnstral]

Yesterday I went to see if I ever said anything about not being predictable with votes in the last run of the setup but I hadn't

[Dunnstral]

sure

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: myloninja13

This is what I want to get, I still believe me getting picked as gladiator holds weight for something smart

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: ceejayvinoya

[Dunnstral]

Alright so I was townreading Flubber on day 1, and then he gladiated scum - I feel if that were a scum move he'd ride the credit harder rather than fading into the background
At the same time I said Something_Smart was scummy at one point (I believe was an unlikely lynch too) and I got gladiated which I've said points to Something_Smart as town

Irrelephant can you give a situation where either or both of these people could be scum

[Dunnstral]

Though at the same time it could be SS because I was chosen after making it v obvious I'd choose flub

This feels kind of weird at the start of the day, you could have gladiated SS during the night with this logic

I was thinking about why you get chosen as gladiator and what it means but I think it looked like everyone else was gladiating you (sounds like SS may have gladiated flubber but never hinted at that)

The one where I'm this lynch and the game keeps going

If that happens then the gladiator tonight has to get the right person or we lose (unless scum is gladiator of course)

a.k.a we're at the point where we probably benefit more from talking about all our current reads

[Dunnstral]

Irrelephant can I ask you who you gladiated each day before this

[Dunnstral]

Since you want to lynch me, which of the other two do you think is scum?

Right now neither of them

And it's not just tomorrow, if game goes on and I get picked gladiator and gladiate town we lose so I need to have something in mind

[Dunnstral]

I know, I meant "which if you had to choose"? So we could talk about that

I need to think about which is more likely in this case, flubbernugget gladiating his scum buddy or something_smart picking me as gladiator when it looked like I was going for him

[Dunnstral]

If a lynch is not achieved before the deadline, plurality will take place, and the player with more votes will be lynched. If both players in the Arena have an equal number of votes,

the one who most recently had more votes will be lynched.

If none were voted at all in the entirety of that Day, neither will be lynched, but the Mafia will get a factional nightkill the next Night.

This is a weird rule btw

I'm trying to imagine me and ss voting and unvoting at deadline

[Dunnstral]

Unique logic that seems hard to think of as scum
Or a smart way to avoid going up against someone who might win a challenge hmmm

I didn't have SS as town until that happened though, I don't think they would have won th challenge

I don't see why you say hammering Not_Mafia day 2 was scummy

[Dunnstral]

I was starting the wagon on day 1, that's what you remembered

[Dunnstral]

Day 2 Blackstar votes N_M, then I vote N_M, then 3 other people vote scioness Sajj after that and blackstar moves to scioness sajj

[Dunnstral]

Not fully caught up

It's really weird that you gladiated me and are pressuring ss as scum

How much have you read

[Dunnstral]

I think the easiest answer is it's Irrelephant still and he needs to get 2 lynches

[Dunnstral]

(In fact it would be really weird to challenge Not_Mafia after it was the consensus that Not_Mafia was town for being chosen, so maybe it does in fact demonstrate extra information.)

Actually this is v true.

My dunnstral paranoia is gone, his game looks the most like I would want town to look this game. Looking at things from a "who might be scum" the answer was "Everyone", but looking at things from "whose game includes the most towny moments that would be hard to fake as scum" and the answer is 100% dunn, followed by ss.

I'm somewhere around ~66% flub/30% ss/3% dunnstral

Dunnstral, if you think SS is more likely scum than flubber you should definitely vote me. If you think flubber is more likely than SS I'm not as sure (given you thinking I'm most likely scum). Obviously I would personally like to stay alive somewhat because fmpov that allows for more opportunities to hit scum, but I also want to avoid the situation where I come to lylo as the scummiest looking player and end up in a tvt, which does not allow for town win at all. So like from your pov Dunn I might be the better lynch, but I'd really love to hear you settle on SSvFlub before you lynch me.

@Mod, given the number of prods and two of us being v/la over the weekend can I request 24 hour extension?

This is a surprise because I thought you were leaning towards ss as scum

Actually you say as much in post 415 above, so what changed for you?

[Dunnstral]

I just finished reading up, but I don't remember who irrelephant is scum reading, and they way he's starting to consider a small handful of players scum is anti town at best

The best I have for a scum read atm is ss over the early game but that's really meh

I can't tell if 408 was a scumread on irrelephant or if you think it was just anti-town

[Dunnstral]

And yes I see the deadline today

[Dunnstral]

I'm pretty paranoid as town and it makes my reads fluctuate and it makes it harder for me to be townread. I'm working on it

You don't need to try to be townread as town, reads changing isn't a bad thing

[Dunnstral]

I townread Irrelephant for the same reason I townread Mylo; he showed significant support for a plan that would lose him the game if carried out.

I guess but I feel like half the game rolled over and said they wouldn't mind being lynched after the first scum lynch so they could be blending in with that

[Dunnstral]

Alright, let's hope this ends the game then

VOTE: Flubbernugget

[Dunnstral]

Wow this seemed like the least likely scenario, me not being in the duo

Make your cases I’m no troll, I’m town

Who is most likely to pick me gladiator as scum, me or SS?

SS picked me because he thought I would pick you, winning him the game. Likewise, if it were me I'd make the gladiator Irrele"Dunn has a 3% chance of being scum"phant for the win

On mobile and about to get off but here are some things to think on:
-SS was kind of frozen while NM got votes on day 1, then didn't say anything when scioness sajj got a quick turnaround in votes
-SS insisted that he'd only pick gladiator randomly d1 as scum, kind of avoided the question
-The main reason SS wasn't lynched is because it looked like I would gladiate him but why would I do that as scum? I don't know why or how this worked out for him, all I can say is maybe it was a desperate gambit or he knew my meta more than I thought
Reminder, SS never wanted to sit here in this lylo with me, he wanted me to pick you
-When SS was gladiator it was against ceejay who was the de facto lynch - in other words super safe for him
-Yesterday we didn't really interact but he really wanted to get flubber when I displayed a scumread on you = setup to make me gladiator?

Scum has a lot of controll over not getting their partner lynched

Clearly not...

Amusing in retrospect

I think it is pretty clear that SS is scum

If you want to know anything else like why I picked SS tonight and not you or who my gladiates would be or why I can answer tomorrow

[Dunnstral]

If you want to know anything else like why I picked SS tonight and not you or who my gladiates would be or why I can answer tomorrow

I will want this, yes

BlackStar, ZZZX, ceejayvinoya, ceejayvinoya, Irrelephant11, Something_Smart

Day 2 BlackStar because when I tried to talk to him about the wagons he basically ignored me and hammered
I explained why I picked ZZZX on day 3
Ceejay on day 4 because I was looking at the people who voted scioness sajj day 1
You day 5 because you seemed most likely to me by poe
Today I picked Something_Smart because I really didn't think you would pick me because I didn't think you'd think you could beat me so I went for Something_Smart - I did have some suspicion on him yesterday (I'd say around 25%) that I just never voiced because I didn't think it was beneficial (you 2 already both seemed to sr him more than me so there was no use revealing my thoughts to). Like I said yesterday he didn't want me to lose my scumread on you and wanted to end things with me gladiating you for his win.

-When SS was gladiator it was against ceejay who was the de facto lynch - in other words super safe for him

I'm not going to try to refute this entire thing, I'll just point out that this is true for Dunn as well (against ZZZX).

This isn't true, nobody was talking about ZZZX, there was a sort of consensus that ceejay was getting lynched

[Dunnstral]

I mean, it's a wifomy game. You can't really avoid arguments like that.

I think the key point of this game was Day 3, where Dunn was chosen as gladiator after saying he suspected me. This was after Not_Mafia was dead, so if I were scum and Dunn had chosen me, I would have almost certainly lost on the spot. Dunn himself pointed this out, which was the reason that both of us were left alone. That's really the only reason I didn't consider Dunn as scum; because if scum he essentially towncleared me for no reason by doing that. And that's a reason equally valid from an objective perspective-- if he were scum he would have just made things mechanically MUCH harder on himself.

This logic was valid right up until the dawn of this day, when Dunn essentially retracted his claim that I am clear from that pick. Since he is no longer calling me town for it, that objective reason why EVERYONE should have been townreading him was made invalid, since the motive in keeping me around when there is suspicion on me is very clearly EASIER for scum-Dunn if he does plan to eventually add me back to the lynchpool.

I am by no means saying that he would not have done this as town, but that was the only reason

I

kept him alive, at least. Now that it's invalid, it requires no assumptions of extraordinary play, gambiting, or guessing to assume that Dunn is scum; whereas, to assume that I'm scum still assumes that I gladiated into the only person who expressed a scumread on me, and a fairly decisive scumread at that, in the hope that he would get out-WIFOMed and target someone else. (Not to mention that Flubber was chosen D2 who had ALSO expressed some suspicion on me.)

Is there anything that you think makes Dunn towny?

What do you mean it's the only reason you kept me alive? When did you ever have the chance to lynch me? Because it looks like you're thinking about gladiates in your head here

There's another reason I'm townread it's because day 1 I voted NM and I'll outline it here:

VOTE: not mafia

This is the 1st vote, it's 4 to lynch

Had issues connecting to MS, finally solved today. let me read up.

I know there's a lot to take in but let us know when you've processed it all.

And then I decided to challenge him

Even if you're town if you're going to get picked again and do dumb challenges I don't see why we should keep you around and I'm not seeing a case against scioness

VOTE: not_mafia

My vote here brings it to 2-0 for not_mafia to be lynched

What happens next couldn't have been predicted: 3 town players vote scioness sajj one after another and derail the NM wagon that was gaining momentum.
I reach out to Blackstar and ask him what he thinks, he brushes me off and hammers scioness sajj

Something_Smart is kind of frozen during this whole thing, he doesn't seem to have anything relevant to say regarding the wagons here

[Dunnstral]

SS my question was more “what other information helps me solve this game?”
Dunn if you can think of anything else go for it

This:

In my experience Dunn is both very willing to bus and good at making it look natural.

I don't see any bus warning signs but I also don't see anything that makes it unlikely.

I think he thinks he is going to have to go against me at this point and is setting up for it

[Dunnstral]

And I don't think Flubber deserves much credit for challenging Not_Mafia, because Not_Mafia is someone who rarely gets near endgame as scum. (In fact it would be really weird to challenge Not_Mafia after it was the consensus that Not_Mafia was town for being chosen, so maybe it does in fact demonstrate extra information.)

Like I said before with Flubber, I don't think Dunn's bussing of Not_Mafia on day 1 means much (since Not_Mafia is mostly a deadweight partner and low-content people tend to be lynched in nightless games), and in fact it might show that he knew more than he was supposed to, since voting Not_Mafia there really didn't make much sense.

And this

You should look at days 1 and 2 when the NM wagon was forming and see how SS acted towards that

[Dunnstral]

If I weren't still sticking to my random plan (and it would probably have been smart to abandon it at that point), I would have made myself gladiator and challenged you.

There's a sort of cog-dis here where SS argues that he would have never made me gladiator day 3 but is also still arguing that they would have randomized the gladiator choice every day

[Dunnstral]

Nevermind I re-read and it makes sense if you just accidentally put ceej in there twice. Please verify this though and answer my 472

I only talked about ceejay once but he is in there twice, you and ss get bumped back a day (you day 6, SS day 7, which is today)
I picked him on day 5 because I subscribed to the consensus that he was the scum

Day 1 I didn't pick anybody, it was a different system, the gladiate was gone in thread

[Dunnstral]

NM is both one of the easiest yet hardest players to lynch in general. So I am expecting someone who picked him day 1 to know enough about him.

Otherwise it's a weird pick

Are you assuming NM is town?

had the same thought about post 31

In other news Blackstar is scummy

Why did you think this dunn? Here are Blackstar's posts at the time:

Hi

What's his reputation?

Well, I am more about waiting for something to happen at this point.

We can't vote so we can't really apply pressure yet..

Pretty much

This was a while ago but I think it was the general low impact entrance followed by post 40 where he's waiting for something to happen - but something had happened in thread and he didn't comment on it

[Dunnstral]

Dunn help me see SS’s motivation in the challenger choices each night

I'm not sure what the picking me thing was about on day 3 or 4 or whatever

It's possible he just randomized each night but I wouldn't count on that

His motivation for picking me today is that I think this was his best option today

[Dunnstral]

Ok so

day 1/day 2 Not_mafia and flubbernugget are chosen as gladiators, we don't know if/how much say not_mafia had in the gladiates early on (Though since he was picked it's a good guess that he did have at least some input in it)

Not_mafia gladiator was wifom for the scum team, no clue why flubbernugget was picked (you say flubber was gunning for something_smart but I don't think I agree, in any case we know this was a bad pick by the mafia anyway)

day 3 he picks me - Maybe he knows I was going to be on someone else? Maybe he thought the NM flip would make me look at the scioness sajj votes? Again, there is no reason for me to gladiate someone else here and then say he's town if I'm mafia, it just makes my stuff harder

day 4 Myloninja - this could be who he wanted lynched for the day. There was no indication that mylo was going to pick something_smart - he only picked him because he hadn't read the thread, so it ended up being a "dumb" looking pick and we lynched him

day 5 Something_Smart is the gladiator, this is the easy "lynch ceejay" day where something_smart probably wanted to get on the board for "people chosen as gladiator" to look better

day 6 You are the gladiator after you said you scumread flubber (I think) - 2 towns in the gladiate

[Dunnstral]

Those are 2016 games and Zach is my friend

[Dunnstral]

^They're not representative as how I play now, and the Zach game was special

[Dunnstral]

What is your description of how you currently feel about bussing?

I don't bus right out of the gate, I'd vote an ally who was going down later but even then I'm hesitant to vote a partner out without permission

[Dunnstral]

I shouldn't have gladiated myself at the end

[Dunnstral]

I shouldn't have gladiated myself at the end

Yeah, I was confused as to why you made that decision to 1v1 SS when you could've taken the free win by gladiating Irrelephant, who gave obvious signs of challenging SS. And I'm not understanding the WIFOM arguments you were making; for example scum won't hold back hammering in 3p Lylo.

I didn't want Irrelephant to think that ss wouldn't challenge him so he could challenge me, especially since I didn't know how he'd react to me hammering

Also, I enjoyed the setup and would play in it again

[Dunnstral]

I think self voting makes this more town sided

[Dunnstral]

Scum won both times but I don't feel it's scum sided