Micro 814: Geriatric Trio (Mafia Victory!!!)

[hitogoroshi]

VOTE: RedCoyote

You didn't even tell me you were comin back I just had to happen to see it. is that any way to treat a hydramate

[hitogoroshi]

wow that cheesy post is really bad. "should be commended for helping it unfold" is a really weird way to describe RVS wagoning. The point on "Are you suggesting they're partners" just seems like stirring up shit for the sake of it - if he's scum he's necessarily not scum with both of them, so what kind of theory are you even pushing here? And the interaction with Oath just gives me the heebies. Fawning praise for the MoI point and the following up blind wagoning, but then a pivot in the same post to agreeing with Oath (?) and then going out of their way to preemptively try to defend Oath? It's a really gross defense too - not utilizing your vote is ten million percent scummy, it's kind of the only scumtell from which all others flow - and it's even more so for someone who commended people for helping unfold the wagon in the first place. oh and finally I think that someone who agrees x1000 that wagons are nice in RVS would have voted me instead of RedCoyote in their first post. VOTE CHEESY FRIENDS

VOTE: Cheesy

don't like Oath either, could go either way on RC, like komala. music box has me a bit :s also but if Cheesy is scum I think Oath is the more likely buddy.

[hitogoroshi]

@hiro Why'd you vote Cheesy over myself?

10,000,000 % scummy Oath > Cheesy so far.. or no?

I don't think missing the RVS vote in the first post is a huge indicator of failing to utilize vote. I do think that Cheesy defending such an extreme version of the idea ("it's not scummy" vs "well, it would have been bad if it kept up, but it didn't") is suspicious.

it's like you were nibbling on a kittens ear and then Cheesy said "WHATS EVERYONE LOOKIN AT? IT'S FINE TO EAT KITTENS." I don't really think you were full on eating that kitten but it's real real bad Cheesy wanted to let you.

[hitogoroshi]

Do scum not buddy town? And vice versa?

It's not like I'm just going after any instance of buddying. It's

specifically

the whiplash of Cheesy going so far out of their washould be commended for helping it unfold to defend you in the same post where they like how MoI started - even though the thing they're defending is pretty much the same as MoI's point. And yes, scum buddying you in this way doesn't mean you're scum too - it could also be scum trying to make friends. But I think that it makes more sense as a buddy situation if Cheesy flips scum and I feel a lot stronger about it after this post from you actually, cause you're tip-toeing around your own Cheesy read and "do scum not buddy town?" gives me pretty big you-know-Cheesys-flippin-scum vibes

[hitogoroshi]

It's specifically the whiplash of Cheesy going so far out of their washould be commended for helping it unfold to defend you in the same post where they like how MoI started - even though the thing they're defending is pretty much the same as MoI's point.

I think I was thinking of adding the quote, took out part of it, and left the other part in a weird incomprehensible way. For the above please read:

"It's specifically the whiplash of Cheesy going so far out of their way to defend you in the same post where they like how MoI started - even though the thing they're defending is pretty much the same as MoI's point."

This may be my favorite analogy ever.

Thank you, I do not suppose I hold a candle to analogy master Brad Neely but it's nice to be appreciated.

I wasn't asked for my Cheesy read and I haven't said anything of what I feel about what he said or what you've said. Both strike me as odd. If you want to know something, you can ask btw.

No, you weren't asked. But a sentence like "Don't scum sometimes buddy town, and vice versa" is one that really invites you to weigh on which is which, and it's kinda weird you didn't. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[hitogoroshi]

@Hito

- Nothing to say to me at all?

not really. While I disagree on the intensity you pinged on Oath for the first post, their followup has been squicky so it's not like I'm upset on the back and forth between you two. It's good for reads and it's too early for me to care about consolidation. Mostly I plan to comment on things with bemused indifference until Cheesy posts and I go for the throat slash re-assess as wararnted

[hitogoroshi]

@Hito and RC

– What would you say your read on Invisibility (Town – Null – Scum and I don’t care what strength) right now.

Slight town for throwing out unsolicited town read early, especially since the post was basically a prod dodge. Not huge town because that's easy enough to fake but still, I kind of expect townreads paired up with other content from scum, not just out there for no benefit.

So if Cheesy flakes and gets replaced how does that change your game-plan Hito?

Tough to say. I don't really mind leaving votes on slots when players replace, because it's the same alignment and anyway high pressure is a good way for replacements to show their colors. But on the other hand, this seems like one of those slow games where I have to create a lot of the content for it to really move forward (notice that since my cheesy post like half of the game posts are just agreeing with me). So even though Cheesy-slot would still be my biggest suspect if they flake, I'll need to chase down some other line of thought just for something to do and probably I'll need my vote for that.

[hitogoroshi]

hi people scumreading cheesy is it because he's posting awkwardly and that's scummy?

What do you think the alignment of cheesy/kmd is?

Hito, if cheesey was scum who wanted to buddy town, why buddy the player being wagoned? Wouldn't it make more sense to buddy stronger players? Or are you thinking he's white knighting the page 1 wagon for whatever reason?

If Oath's your top suspect, why so sure they're town here?

Music Box, vote in your next post.

I would normally be pretty on edge about Oath not really pushing their case, but it's not like RedCoyote has been giving much to work with, so I guess understandable. Pretty happy staying on KMD for now. Don't like how his posting has lots of needling on small points and his only stated town ping was him backing off on Komala after the explanation. It looks like he was looking for ammunition more than alignments

[hitogoroshi]

kmd, how would you feel if someone actually hammered that Oath wagon right now?

Music Box, I don't want to go on my huge rant because idk if you're town or not but "I'll vote when I'm ready" is a real bad road to go on. If you're not scum you know that all the scum are voting, so surely any vote out of you is going to be better than not voting even if you're not super sure about it, because it dilutes the proportion of scum votes. Not to mention the fact that

we

need to read

you

. Vote in your next post.

invisibility <-> cheesy interactions seem weird but nothing I can really put my finger on.

I dunno there's like lots of low grade gross stuff but no one winner. I don't like how reactive Oath is being but I also see where RC's posts don't really have a lot of traction. about my only solid town read right now is Komala because revisiting old reads in ISO 3 is enough effort that I really doubt it's from scum. Yeah yeah you can dislike it all you want but it's a towntell a lot more than it isn't.

I don't really feel "better" per se about cheesy-slot but more convinced that I'll be able to read KMD over time without needing pressure and it didn't get worse or anything, so it feels right to back off for now. I could be sold on a lot of wagons at this venture, but I think for now my heart wants RedCoyote the most because he explictly mentioned that the music box slot is worthy of pressure but then literally five minutes later said that he didn't like his KMD vote but couldn't find a place to move to.

VOTE: RedCoyote

[hitogoroshi]

kmd, how would you feel if someone actually hammered that Oath wagon right now?

Somewhere between anxious to see the flip and annoyed not to get a claim first.

This is actually....a good answer

This is … I don’t know … strange. Hito I know that you know most any behavior is going to be generally more likely to come from Town than scum because … there are naturally about 3-4 times as much Town as scum. And effort is as much personality driven as it is alignment driven. So yeah ... I think this is a really weak reason to be solidly Townreading Komala.

I mean, putting aside that effort is "as much personality driven as it is alignment driven" (I know there are some people who get amped to be scum, but I still think that on the whole trying hard in an anemic game is a towntell above the replacement odds), it's really the KIND of effort I'm talking about. Like Komala said they needed to be prodded, but come on, imagine you are scum and you commited to ISO'ing every player. In this case, the framework you're using is already a high-effort one. Who then ALSO, in the SAME POST, gives little updates on their past reads when those aren't the scum suspects they're pushing? It's just sort of solidifying townreads in a way they had absolutely no expectation to do, because absolutely no one bats a blind eye if the ISO catchup post is only an ISO catchup post. So to me that really suggests town who actually care about those reads and want to get their story straight - it's a lot of effort for scum to do something that only hurts them by lowering their flexibility.

And for the record, I agree that "unreasonably strong townread" is a legit tell, I just don't agree it applies here since I did see the same thing from invisibility. (Not that I put all that much stock in it, but it's kind of good to exaggerate the strength of your town reads in the early game, y'know?)

--

nonny, you haven't said a single thing about your vote since placing it. whats up? I was the main architect of cheesy wagon and now I've abandoned my baby; if you can make anyone see the light it's me. I see in preview edit that nonny addressed this while I was finishing up the post, but only to do the same thing RC is doing. Gross!

--

I'm like super frustrated about this Music Box thing because I would love to just policy push and be done with it because obviously she's playing in a scum beneficial anti-town way. But I dunno something tells me music box would do it regardless of alignment and it's not a scum thing to push. But I mean, if she IS scum, it's not like we would randomly catch her one day while she's durdling around refusing to take any meaningful stance, so like it's kind of an if not now when situation also. Meh I dunno just because there are a looooot of skeevy kids this game I feel like I can wait a little bit longer on this but I'm not happy about it and wanted to vent.

--

Oath, if you believed you should be the lynch target, why not self-hammer?

[hitogoroshi]

So - I think Oath is actually pretty likely to be town the way things went down. And I'm not totally convinced we should just play the odds and take the "safe lynch", because every instance of this setup has a role that has definitive innos if there's only one scum left. So lynching scum D1 is crazy powerful, and I think that trumps any PR concerns here - I want to lynch the player with the highest chance to flip with a red name and that's it.

Of course having said that, for the second time this game someone responded to me pushing a point on them by flaking out, lol. Still a sketchy slot but since n_m can't answer for anything RC did it's gonna be rough to try to really get a good bead on his new content in two days. Beyond that, I think nonny, music box, and invisibility would all probably be more productive targets than Oath. I think we'll be able to read a LOT from Music Box based on what they say re: Komala. Invisibility is weird because I like their posting style on gut but - assuming I'm right on Oath, which is not a certain thing - the no-scum list is kind of gross because it's pretty much what you'd expect from lazy scum who thinks Oath-town is a lock for lynch target. And as for nonny, this post just really got to me:

I'm not keen on any of the other wagons but if it comes down to choosing between them then I'd be voting RC.

Why RC? Why not Invisibility?

Those voting RC (oath and hito) can you say more about why you're voting him? Went back and read the vote posts because I really couldn't recall clearly why.

also i'm voting oath because she is the most scumme
i'm going to iso people tomorrow and try to get more reads

How's this going?

NOW - that's that. I'm town- go back and reevaluate all your reads and stop pushing up on weak shit.

Do you have a read to share that isn't "pushing up on weak shit"? How do you feel about the posts since your claim?

VOTE: Invisibility

Because 'why RC? Why not Invisibility' without proactively GIVING the reason for Invisibility gives me very bad vibes of nonny trying to find a perceived consensus candidate and be fresh on a wagon to avoid claims of sheeping, while not actually caring about the push happening. Also this post becomes

mega gross

if I'm right about RC being scum.

Add to that nonny's response to MoI asking for reasons on invisibility was to just unvote and I think this is the play right now-

VOTE: nonny

But I'll be checking the thread a lot so my vote will be mobile if it needs to be.

[hitogoroshi]

I'm in a hostel the next few days so posts will probably be shorter.

I'm having second thoughts on my stance on Oath because 156/157 really really seems like scum who just can't be assed to fake content until they have basically a guarantee they won't be lynched. Even if you think "I refuse to let anyone else be run up" that doesn't stop you from expressing who you think should be lynched. And I like nonny 155 for pointing this out.

I would also be pretty happy just flash-wagoning that n_m slot to be honest

VOTE: not_mafia

[hitogoroshi]

hard to feel good about following n_m on Oath but confirming I'm around as another potential hammerkeeper along with MoI.

I think oath scum makes kmd come off worse and oath town makes not_mafia come off worse.

feel a little better about music box and nonny, but mostly that just means "watching how they reindex on flips should be instructive"

I basically don't have a single strong townread right now (I mean I still think komala slot probably town but nothing to do with ceejay) and it bothers me, usually I have townreads all over the damn place.

[hitogoroshi]

eh I think last minute surges can do interesting shit sometime but whatever.

moi you're the other nk bait player in this game, who is moi's ghost looking at on oath-scum/oath-town

[hitogoroshi]

In case we miscounted

VOTE: oath

[hitogoroshi]

Phone so didn't really wanna post just remembered dl was close
If oath is scum I guess maybe it could still be nm, nonny seems a stretch on oath scum from what I remember

[hitogoroshi]

Did some re-reading overnight. Wavered back and forth about nonny's posting - on the one hand, leaning that hard into the moralizing aspect smells kind of like scum looking for a justifiable place to be, but on the other hand I think scum would have stayed off after getting off. Conversely I feel worse about KMD on a re-read, because while I liked his abort on Oath (since I felt the same w/r/t power roles), it seemed a lot more like he was trying to be seen not voting Oath then he actually wanted to push invisibility.

Invisibility is pretty gross on his own because his super weak presence makes sense with Oath being a mislynch, but I think it'll be really hard to sink teeth into his D1 stuff so it depends a lot on his D2. Music Box I'm going to call a town-read - partly that's just being depressed by the high background scuminess of this game (ie it's less "wow the towniness is really obvious here" and more "well, some of these fuckin players have to be town, so...") but her flow makes a lot of sense for someone who's actively trying to get a non-Oath lynch and is just unusued to throwing their weight around.

not_mafia is still way the best lynch. I don't think you rep in without a desire to make a single content post, RC's flake was kinda sketchy, and obviously his Oath vote stunk. Not sure if I'd rather have kmd or invisiiblity as a consolation prize. I guess KMD is probably a better player to have around if he is town. Despite me liking Komala might be worth drawing knives on ceejay and seeing if he bleeds.

VOTE: not_mafia

[hitogoroshi]

Not_mafia doing nothing but voting the person who is going to be lynched anyway is pretty typical for him. If anything I'm just surprised he didn't wait to take the hammer.

You seem pretty lackadaisical about not being able to read n_m.

Vote: nonny

Sticking with this for now as I haven't seen anything in the last few pages to change my mind on it.

I'm sort of your ideal candidate, aren't I? I explicitly had suspicions of nonny but then decided that I didn't think scum-nonny would get off Oath so publicly then get back on. If that didn't change

your

mind, then I'm probably the easiest vote to get for your wagon - all you have to do is convince me my change of mind wasn't warranted. Sell me on it.

Ceejay, it's pretty disconcerting that you're doing ISOs. If you read the thread enough to gather that there was a "lot of content", why not give summary reads on the game as a whole? Did you not have a single opinion when reading the thread sequentially?

[hitogoroshi]

I'm mad at everyone but music box and I guess kinda invisibility

KMD's position on not_mafia actually has me going from thinking they're buddies to thinking that n_m is town if he's scum. It's just such a brazenly cavalier "we can read him later, because one month of not playing a mafia game is truly informative in a way that two weeks of not playing a mafia game can never be". Feels like he'd try to justify it more for a buddy, but here he's just trying to pocket n_m until D3 when suddenly he'll be like, oh, not playing the mafia game is bad actually!! I have seen the light!!

Music Box, I looked back and you're right - for some reason I thought nonny's vote was on Oath, not invisibility, when she unvoted there. Since it came after the VT claim and her post had called out both of them before unvoted I just kind of assumed. Funny that i made that mistake even on an ISO re-read. So yeah I guess nonny does rise in the scum ranks some.

BUT when things are this stalled out I think I want to just listen to my heart and my heart is saying ceejay. (Which sucks, because that would mean I was wrong on komala.) Like I intimated last post, ceejay apparently reading enough to complain about how dense the game is but ALSO not saying a single damn thing about the linear read is gross. And the fact that he responded to my question not with an answer but with an L-1 vote on my wagon - an unannounced L-1 at that - is pretty danger klaxons.

VOTE: ceejayvinoya

[hitogoroshi]

Hey not_mafia, how would you feel emotionally about a ceejay lynch

Arghhh. POE is telling me that it's nonny, but that's not enough for me.

If you're voting not_mafia, why would PoE also direct you to the person he's voting for? Also, if you're in the business of PoE, that means you have a lot of town reads, so why just mention the two?

[hitogoroshi]

I pretty much ignored this earlier because I had no idea how to go on the business of answering it. Like do you expect everyone to play in a specific way? Please tell me if I'm misunderstanding this and that me doing ISO's is pinging you in some bad way.

So, on D1, you post this:

Lols. I don't know what you're talking about. There's actually a lot of content here. I grossly underestimated this game when I joined and went like "oh 7 pages. This would be a breeze."

So there's a "lot of content". Great! You can read that lot of content, generate a lot of content in turn reacting to it, huzzah and toodle pip and so forth.

But then your next post, six days later, is:

Aight I'm here. I'm going to ISO people individually and see how it goes.

So if you're saying "ISO people individually", what happened to that first read over "lot of content"? That what seems missing to me. The "catchup" you mentioned seems more like a insincere reason to not commit to anything D1 vs. actually representing you reading the thread and having thoughts on it.

[hitogoroshi]

man I don't know. not_mafia's posting in isolation is super duper scummy but it's just hard for me to be that excited about it given ceejay being on the wagon and given KMD being weirdly deferential on not_mafia (where it seems like he actually isn't hustling for invisibility over not_mafia, he just wants to be seen not voting him). But on the third hand it's hard to argue with Music Box saying that not_mafia is using his reputation to deliberately coast.

The thing is what he's doing doesn't really even have a scum motivation when HE'S the leading wagon. But it had plenty of scum motivation when he started doing it with Oath as the leading wagon and he wouldn't be the first scumbag who figures that acting consistently is the way out of a hole. Still, ceejay's skew on the initial reads has an element of insincerity that I think bothers me a little more. (But of course, with not_mafia, you can't really say "Well, we haven't seen examples of insincerity", because the whole scum benefit of not playing the mafia game is that you don't show any examples of anything).

this isn't really decisive, so I guess I'll just clarify that I'm the farthest thing from town reading not_mafia but the associations leave me a lil hesitant / preferring ceejay. not_mafia voters who want me on their wagon know that I am a pretty easy sell in this regard, so let me know your thoughts on ceejay.

[hitogoroshi]

You seem to have thought that me saying that means I suddenly have an amazing understanding of what's going on around here. Sorry to disappoint you, but nah.

What do you mean "amazing understanding?" I didn't criticize the

quality

of your catchup, I criticized the

utter lack of a single word of catchup

, because reading enough to say the game had a lot of content would presume that you had at least one thought on at one least one part of that content. I mean the whole problem is this post:

I mean I'm obviously reading the thread and if something was more than 70% likely to be scum I'd speak up, but in 7 pages we have a whole lot of nothing. Excuse me for not railing another possible townie on weak reasoning. It's not my style. I jump in when it's worth it.

Lols. I don't know what you're talking about. There's actually a lot of content here. I grossly underestimated this game when I joined and went like "oh 7 pages. This would be a breeze."

Trying to throw gasoline on the Oath wagon by saying that you can't understanding saying "there's a whole lot of nothing" rings tremendously insincere when you then pulled exactly the same thing. It looks an awful lot like you were using the "lot of content" as your reason to not post D1 and let Oath wagon sail through, and then D2 (when you can't get away from posting) you just decided to just switch to a relatively lazier way to catchup, forgetting your statement that you were doing a linear read.

---

Is it bad that the game pace is making me want to just hammer? N_M does appear scummy and like he’s hiding behind meta but we are also crawling along slower than a snails pace.

If we have two scum alive in a field of 7 and nearly everyone is okay with the game limping, what does that tell you about the status quo?

Like look at KMD. He thinks not_mafia is a bad lynch today, and that invisibility is likely scum. Invisibility is voting for not_mafia, which should make not_mafia an even less appealing lynch from his point of view. But despite all that, it sure doesn't look like KMD is actually concerned about stopping the not_mafia lynch in favor of his invisibility lynch. Shouldn't he be?

Or hey, look at me. I seem to be held in pretty high town esteem. Does that mean people are engaging with my ceejay case? Well huh, not really. In fact, the only other player to actually give a

read

on Ceejay this whole damn day is you saying you're "not happy" with him. Oh, and KMD saying that he'd take you if it was you vs ceejay (but not why). Is it right or wrong? Who knows, my reads ain't perfect, but what does it mean that folks are complaining about lack of content and then not engaging with me at all?

It sure seems like people want to affect a casual stance on not_mafia, but are simultaneously super unwilling to consider other options. So uhh, yeah, I do think it's bad to want to just hammer based on the game pace, because the answer is to demand more engagement from folks instead of capitulating to it.

[hitogoroshi]

Thanks to Ari having hyperlinks to the votes in the VC I can confirm that Music Box and Invisibility are the only players to actually give justifications for their votes while making them (and they were both one sentence "He's using his reputation to avoid explaining himself. and "n_m not doing anything is kinda scummy" respectively.)

Like okay here's a quick Mafia 101 lesson. If the prevailing winds are pointing at town (and they are more often than not, since most people are townies), scum don't need to "do" anything except let inertia do it's thing and be seen voting. So the town culture of just everyone voting their favorite scumread without justification and then we all flop around and randomly settle on it is exactly what scum want. The whole point of wanting vigorous in-thread debate and compromise is that, as a townie, I have different and malleable thoughts on each player, whereas the scum have binary and static views on players.

So in a game with real mafia players, you can take a listless day like this one and say, hmm, let's look at the indifferent players - the ones who are ON a wagon, but don't seem to care if it's being pushed or not. That's a pretty good scum tell, because town players should always have a lynch they want best, but (since, like we said, the prevailing winds hit town more often than not) they often don't actually care whether they're on the lynch wagon, and in fact would rather be off it in case the next day some insufferable dumbass says there's no way the wagon was all town and starts coloring names or whatever.

But clearly I can't use it in this game, because that's basically everybody here. I guess not_mafia voters get a sort of pass, because if you're voting not_mafia, a one-sentence case

is

responding to 100% of his posts. But even so, we really need everyone voting and everyone trying to

sell others

on their vote, because this horseshit is what the scum dream of doing and the rest of you are giving them cover to do it.

So sell me on your votes in your next posts. Like I said, not_mafia voters have a bit of a special time with this, so instead you can have the alternative assignment of making the case that this broader wagonflow still makes sense with not_mafia scum. Take this seriously because the red names are sitting and really hoping you don't.

Here's my greatest hits on ceejay:

BUT when things are this stalled out I think I want to just listen to my heart and my heart is saying ceejay. (Which sucks, because that would mean I was wrong on komala.) Like I intimated last post, ceejay apparently reading enough to complain about how dense the game is but ALSO not saying a single damn thing about the linear read is gross. And the fact that he responded to my question not with an answer but with an L-1 vote on my wagon - an unannounced L-1 at that - is pretty danger klaxons.

Trying to throw gasoline on the Oath wagon by saying that you can't understanding saying "there's a whole lot of nothing" rings tremendously insincere when you then pulled exactly the same thing. It looks an awful lot like you were using the "lot of content" as your reason to not post D1 and let Oath wagon sail through, and then D2 (when you can't get away from posting) you just decided to just switch to a relatively lazier way to catchup, forgetting your statement that you were doing a linear read.

[hitogoroshi]

also separate from my rant:

oh dang thassa a good post welp guys you me right in the headlights im the godfather gg town

What do you think KMDs alignment is? This feels like the kind of post you make on someone you're crossvoting with.

[hitogoroshi]

I was pretty salty last night, on a sober re-read I retract roughly 30% of my anger

that's it though

[hitogoroshi]

I feel you should have just done a “mic drop” instead.

this is a sassy post from someone who has neither voted nor done the n_m alternate homework assignment

who is scum

your stuff about associatives with N_M took a dent to his towniness
he rests at lightly townie

btw n_m is still scum

I think KMD scum would probably mean n_m town, though. If my stuff about associatives moved the needle for on you KMD, wouldn't that also make you think n_m-scum is less likely?

also y'all it's ceejay and we can save ari the work of replacing

[hitogoroshi]

oh boy it's like the forth time this fuckin game where I started tugging on a thread and instead of getting to confirm or break out of tunnel, they just repped out

Hito, what were you trying to achieve with your "why not self hammer?" comment in #106?

It seems that that comment was an important cause for Oath self voting, and by extension of the Oath mislynch.

Just trying to get more input from Oath on their perception of the self-push to suss out if it was town or scum. Saying you MUST be the lynch today and then not doing it is something scumbolinas do a lot, y'know?

Not_Mafia. I agree that his playstyle isn't very helpful for town. However, from what I've seen of NM's meta, this playstyle could easily come from both town and scum from him. What makes me put NM firmly in the town category is the way other players respond to him. A playstyle like his is an ideal target for scum, as attacking this playstyle allows mafia to be seen doing things while effectively contributing nothing. NM is getting lazily attacked by almost everyone. The only exception is kmd, and even he seems meh-ish regarding that lynch. There's noone who could reasonably be a scum partner trying to defend NM from a lynch. There's noone who's attack on NM is solid enough to claim the town points that would make bussing worth it. Then it seems far more likely that NM is town and both mafia are happy with his lynch.

I mean...if he's scum, he only has a single scumbuddy. It's totally possible that he has a scumbuddy who thinks he needs to be bussed as an inevitability, or is just too lazy to defend, or too scared of being anchored to him. The game is too small to use wagonflow as a general argument, you have to cough up specific names.

I don't like how much Michel's post seems to be focused on on-decking the next two lynches, instead of actually sussing out the alignments. Like he says "Now admittedly, day two is better..." re: Music Box like he's disappointed by it (even though it's not his vote!). But y'know, FOR SURE at least one of those three names is town, so shouldn't you be interested in puzzling that out. But the post seems to be solely focused on digging up dirt, not more sorting. Seems like he took the remit of "this is my town read box, this is my scum read box, and this is why" really strictly and artificially.

So I still think Michel's a great lynch, but we have no time and not_mafia is a way better lynch than Nonny. Also ceejay-slot went from being something that makes the not_mafia wagon feel bad to looking like not_mafia's partner, and that makes me feel like a hundred times happier about it.

VOTE: Not_Mafia [L-1]

[hitogoroshi]

Like for real y'all, that Michel post is dinging Nonny for

Basically, it seems she isn't really scumhunting, but instead is attacking players who are playing poorly.

but then read his indictment on Invisibility

Basically, Invisibility gives me the feeling that he isn't really doing anything much. I can't even make an overview for him as I did for musicbox, as most of his posts are low content oneliners. Which makes the "n_m not doing anything is kinda scummy" in #234 quite hypocritical. If he believes it's good for scum to not do anything, then his not doing anything could be quite intentional.

How on earth are these in the same brain, never mind the same post? How much of the not_mafia koolaid do you have to be drinking to unironically type a sentence that starts with "If he believes it's good for scum to not do anything"? Looks an awful lot to me like he's trying to sell "going for the active lurker is scummy" today while also setting the stage to go for the other active lurker tomorrow

[hitogoroshi]

just to repeat it for posterity if not_mafia flips scum I am 100% looking at michel as the partner

[hitogoroshi]

going through the playerlist and wow if not_mafia is scum michel is far and away the most sensible buddy. Hard to think of who hito's ghost wants in a lylo where not_mafia redflips but then michel greenflips. Maybe...KMD? But I still think his method of extreme deference on n_m (as opposed to michel trying to proactively clear on wagonflow) doesn't seem like what you'd do for a scumbuddy.

If n_m is town, I guess it's a question of whether this really was an n_m icebox (ie the wagons were town-town) or if nonny is scum. If nonny is scum, invis is probably who I look at as the partner. Actually thinking about the playerlist more, it's invis by a pretty big margin even, hard to think of someone else you put on a nonny scum team. If it's town-town it gets tricky because kmd/michel make sense in that world as well and that leaves us a pretty big list.

Music Box I think is pretty likely town for threatening both hammers today. if it's one town and one scum you wouldn't think music box would be threatening both ways, and if they're town/town it's still a good sign because that's a lot of putting yourself out there to influence an outcome scum don't actually care that much about.

so the tl;dr is that music box is about the only unconditional town read I got. I think it almost has to be michel as not_mafia's scumbuddy. if not_mafia is town, there's sort of two distinct paths to go down. if nonny is scum invis is far and away the most likely buddy. but there's also a good chance that n_m town still means nonny town also and it's michel +...I haven't dug TOO much into this thought yet but I think KMD is what would work out here. So my scumteams I'm looking at are {n_m, michel}, {nonny, invis}, or {michel, KMD}, this flip knocks 2 or 1.

maybe more twilight thoughts but breaking this out in case thread lock comes

[hitogoroshi]

oh yes I am also

V/LA aug 19 - aug 20

and then after that I will be posting some but probably not as much. also will be in EEST time zone, I am visiting estonia.

not to keep piling on michel but it seems weird that he mentioned "without even considering that my arguments might come from a town perspective". Because umm, if I was scum I would know who was coming from what perspective on account of the moderator telling me at the beginning of the game. He didn't address my actual *thoughts* on his argument:

I mean...if he's scum, he only has a single scumbuddy. It's totally possible that he has a scumbuddy who thinks he needs to be bussed as an inevitability, or is just too lazy to defend, or too scared of being anchored to him. The game is too small to use wagonflow as a general argument, you have to cough up specific names.

It's implying, I guess, that if I had believed him as town I would have also sheeped his read and ignored the above? and that since I didn't do that, I must be scum? But the language of intent - that this is a calamity that will befall me for not believing in him - is a real real bad look on n_m greenflip

pedit hey n_m who's nonnys scumbuddy then

[hitogoroshi]

HMM I thought invis was most probable nonny partner thinking about todays posts but when I looked back at nonny iso I found this

I'm not keen on any of the other wagons but if it comes down to choosing between them then I'd be voting RC.

Why RC? Why not Invisibility?

Those voting RC (oath and hito) can you say more about why you're voting him? Went back and read the vote posts because I really couldn't recall clearly why.

also i'm voting oath because she is the most scumme
i'm going to iso people tomorrow and try to get more reads

How's this going?

NOW - that's that. I'm town- go back and reevaluate all your reads and stop pushing up on weak shit.

Do you have a read to share that isn't "pushing up on weak shit"? How do you feel about the posts since your claim?

VOTE: Invisibility

and that "Why RC? Why not invisibility?" doesn't really look like partner posting to me

whereas KMD <-> ceejay seems real real plausible. KMD talked to Komala in one exchange at the begining, but after his ISO 8 where he mentions everyone he never talks about him again. And he never says anything about OR to ceejay, except once saying he'd rather lynch nonny (but never addressing me re: ceejay). whereas komala had "suspicion" but voted Oath, and ceejay had a town read where he lumped KMD in with me for the same reason of basically TR for posting, which seems like the way you'd TR a scumbuddy (make sure you TRing a townie for the exact same reason, how can anyone trace it to you being scum with them, hoho).

So yeah, if if n_m flips red lynch michel, if he flips green I think michel/KMD is my most likely scumteam. thems the hito death reads and if not I'll see you in the morning