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Post #110 (isolation #6) » Sun May 08, 2022 7:11 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
Skitter/Datisi/Aristeia was more boring than I was hoping. I have secret things I’m looking for to catch scum in this setup and none of you did it but also all of you almost did…. Skitter is probably the towniest of the three idk
HEAL: fireisredsir HEAL: Save the Dragons
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #112 (isolation #7) » Sun May 08, 2022 7:13 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
I guess I’ll HEAL: skitter because I think she’s done more than 0 towny things and my meta that she’s scary as scum might have expired in the years since I’ve played with her
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
In post 200, fireisredsir wrote:anyway now that mala has posted my first shot at a coalition is
HEAL: fireisredsir HEAL: skitter HEAL: not known 15 HEAL: irrelephant HEAL: malakittens
HEAL: fireisredsir HEAL: skitter HEAL: not known 15 HEAL: irrelephant HEAL: malakittens
I could get here. Why is malakittens more town than save the dragons? @NK15 and @fireisredsir
Also what gives you the confidence to ignore aristeia's scumcase on fireisredsir? I don't think it's like... awesome, but I thought there were 1-2 good points in it. @NK15
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #221 (isolation #30) » Mon May 09, 2022 1:55 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
I think menalque is probably town but is losing the race to towniness to others rn
I don't think aristeia/datisi is t/t but that's also a read that feels liable to do a complete 180 if/when someone else gets scummy.
Getting paranoid about skitter
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #225 (isolation #31) » Mon May 09, 2022 2:27 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
I think I just haven't felt like I've done enough ~work~ to sort skitter. Like she just fell into my town pile and I can't really remember any reasons other than she said some stuff that made sense, which she does as both alignments
Quick, skitter, towntell
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #226 (isolation #32) » Mon May 09, 2022 2:27 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
In post 224, Menalque wrote:incidentally, my strategic principle going into this is that skitter/ari probably shouldn't be in the coalition unless there's a real dearth of towniness from other slots as they're the players I think it's hardest to catch on D1 if scum
This seems like quite the handicap to play by. You'll find every townie but them if they're both town?
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
what do you think you could have done to reliably sort skitter when she hasn't even got 30 posts yet? I'm really sceptical that literally anyone on site could say that they're confident she's town based on that amount/what she's done so far
that doesn't mean treat her like scum -- I advocate the opposite -- but even doubling up on that, it's going to be very hard to reliably read her as town based on what she's actually done without anything concrete
To begin with: there's a 75% chance she's town.
Then: She said things in the dat/ari/skit opening to the game that I agreed with (like "you two feel weird")
Following: She rightly pointed out that me saying "more people should heal me" is sketchy without really coming for me. If she's scum she probably should have come for me as a widely townread townie, unless she thinks I'll lead town off a cliff based on my current trajectory
Even if the second & third things are only worth like 2% points of towniness each, there's now a 79% chance she's town. Good enough to sit in my coalition until the paranoia comes for me
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
In post 32, Datisi wrote:hi irrel!! do you have any thoughts on the posts that have been submitted so far?
excuse me while I barf @ "any thoughts on the posts that have been submitted so far" - "submitted"? Is town writing this post to me? I guess maybe but it's giving scum vibes
i opened his iso in this link and i was already visualizing what i was gonna write about him not feeling the same this game and how he might actually be Just Scum, but then i noticed his first post in the iso there is around post 900 so there goes my theory
i feel like you're not necessarily wrong on thinking our interaction is weird because i did think it was weird too, but fmpov it is kind of clear which side is weird so your callout is Odd to me
(not necessarily scummy, just Odd)
I forgot how much I didn't like that you almost decided I was Just Scum based on a 3-year-old meta of one game. Like the reason you shouldn't be reading me from that game is that it's very unlikely relevant, not that I started on post 900. Yeah I don't know feels like a ~totally real attempt to meta read me~ that scum might try to do on page 2 to look towny
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
what do you think you could have done to reliably sort skitter when she hasn't even got 30 posts yet? I'm really sceptical that literally anyone on site could say that they're confident she's town based on that amount/what she's done so far
that doesn't mean treat her like scum -- I advocate the opposite -- but even doubling up on that, it's going to be very hard to reliably read her as town based on what she's actually done without anything concrete
To begin with: there's a 75% chance she's town.
Then: She said things in the dat/ari/skit opening to the game that I agreed with (like "you two feel weird")
Following: She rightly pointed out that me saying "more people should heal me" is sketchy without really coming for me. If she's scum she probably should have come for me as a widely townread townie, unless she thinks I'll lead town off a cliff based on my current trajectory
Even if the second & third things are only worth like 2% points of towniness each, there's now a 79% chance she's town. Good enough to sit in my coalition until the paranoia comes for me
okay, here's my problem with this:
(1) any player has a higher chance of being town than scum looked at purely randomly -- if you applied this to each player you'd be right in each case that the random % chance was better for scum than town, but you'd still just be shooting in the dark at random, which only leads to whatever the non-charisma based version EV gives for win %. it is a good argument for why to deal with people in good faith though
(2) do you think that scum!skitter wouldn't be able to note the same "weirdness" between dats/ari? if scum!skitt would also be able to recognise these things, then why would she not also point them out? I think this is NAI
(3) I can see why that can be perceived as sketchy but don't really think it is. I don't see any reasons why scum!skitt would necessarily see anyone as being a big enough threat at this point in the game that she'd risk compromising herself by going for them off the bat
again, not saying I think skitter is scum here, but I don't think the arguments you've put forth for why she's better-than-rand % town are convincing
You're right that I'm sort of misusing random chance as a way to read people as town. But on the other hand I think it IS actually a good reason to not just write off good scum players who are also good town players - since they're more likely to be town, you shouldn't be afraid to townread their towniness
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #262 (isolation #42) » Mon May 09, 2022 4:19 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
I don't know the more I argue it the less I believe in it but at the same time it helped me win coalition games before so I'll just keep it as my own thing and convince you skitter is town later if I feel the need to do so
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
why? i don't necessarily disagree, but the timing of this makes me feel like you're townreading him for things i don't really think are town!indicative
In post 243, skitter30 wrote:Not sure i agree with that logic tho, i think you would like playing scum with dats
i would like for nk15 to actually elaborate on what he was saying in 236 because there's a townier and a scummier universe for 236, but i'm not inclined to ask specific questions and lead him to the answer
the post itself is nothing really special that's outside of mena's scumrange, but it kinda makes me think that his trajectory on skitter, doesn't like, make a ton of sense if he's scum
because i know mena has that way of treating skitter that's "town until proven otherwise" and that would work okay for this game, especially as skitt was already starting to think that mena's town. so this kinda "actually i don't want to vote skitter into the coalition if there's other people" feels like, not a necessary stance to take? like, if he's scum and he doesn't want skitter inside the coalition, i think he knows this kind of theoretical approach is not very likely to make people actually remove skitter from the coalition. it does however, risk people disliking him for trying to argue something like that about a person they think is town because he's basically saying "i don't have a scumread but let's still not" which has an obvious +scum potential so why does he do it, exactly
like, this does make sense if the team is exactly mena/skitt but if that's the team, the game was lost at rand and this all is just a formality so i will not worry about it yet
actually this is a towny post hmmm
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #323 (isolation #47) » Mon May 09, 2022 7:08 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
I don't know if aristeia and datisi both insist the other is being very towny then maybe I have to consider that they're aligned and if they're both going to put in so much effort to be team players (aristeia trying not to clog the thread, datisi double-checking whether I and the dragon are actually safe townreads) then maybe I shouldn't scumread them. Is that dumb? To townread people for towny things in this setup? My brain is hurting
pedit: It's funny every time
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #324 (isolation #48) » Mon May 09, 2022 7:09 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
At some point I need to channel Shoshin again so I can get those really cool angle-shoot-y reads that are based on irrefutable things that nobody would ever think of. Like my first townread on NK15, I felt so clever thinking of that,
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #326 (isolation #49) » Mon May 09, 2022 7:15 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
HURT: all
HEAL: irrelephant
save the dragons
aristeia
menalque
skitter30
Sheeping the dragon.
Pedit: Shoshin was an unpopular player in many games, but I really got along her and learned a lot from her style of play, I think she more than most could see past smoke screens and read people's actual motivations. I understand she had a "scum IRL" moment in a game in the interim that I've been away, but I feel no shame channeling her better towngames
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #327 (isolation #50) » Mon May 09, 2022 7:17 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
How strongly do you care about me responding to 276 because I don't think either of will enjoy going back and forth on the semantics of each other's posts. Suffice it to say you were responding to a post I enjoyed writing more than strongly believed, so it's not that interesting to me as a conversation path.
I'll talk about it if you like *really care* though
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #329 (isolation #51) » Mon May 09, 2022 7:30 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
Really torn between continuing to sort you by way of gentle antagonization or flipping the script and trying to make peace
For now I have IRL work to do so I'll let you just do your thing and read me/std
One point I'll respond to: I
was
disappointed to realize a lim can't happen until the coalition forms, making votes way less powerful right now. So I stopped caring where my vote was once I realized it doesn't do anything to provide pressure. Otherwise it would have moved around a lot by now
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #339 (isolation #52) » Mon May 09, 2022 9:34 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
Sure yeah, elephant eyes are a little bigger than human eyes. Only a little, which might surprise you - roughly 150% the size of a human eye. I would have thought bigger but no
And elephant trunks can grab stuff but don't have, like, opposable thumbs, so it's hard to get in there without making things worse
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #347 (isolation #54) » Mon May 09, 2022 10:48 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
In post 342, fireisredsir wrote:ok well i was kind of feeling like your more recent posting has vibes of "haha look at me i have towny thoughts processes and plans and paranoias" and less so like those things were genuine. like it feels like you care more about projecting that image of yourself than about the things themselves
and that response doesn't really help on that front
I have a real answer but I didn’t want to scumcase Datisi while he was scumcasing me
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #353 (isolation #55) » Mon May 09, 2022 10:57 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
Parenting will probably preclude me from writing anything brainy until tomorrow but hold my feet to the fire if I haven’t answered all questions and objections within 24 hours
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #354 (isolation #56) » Mon May 09, 2022 11:00 am
Postby Irrelephant11 »
I’ll give a tl;dr of datisi/mala:
-early undeserved mutual heals
-skitter who’s played with ari and Datisi says they’re being weird and one is maybe scum
-ari seemed townier than Datisi att
-last time I played a full coalition game the team was [talkative and working to get into the coalition]+[lurking and aiming to stay out of it]
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
-early undeserved mutual heals
-skitter who’s played with ari and Datisi says they’re being weird and one is maybe scum
-ari seemed townier than Datisi att
-last time I played a full coalition game the team was [talkative and working to get into the coalition]+[lurking and aiming to stay out of it]
Fwiw I’m now leaning Datisi/Aristeia t/t
Skitter if you reread their early game do you still think they’re being awkward in a scummy way
Petit: pick one what
NK15 can you play more please
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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Post #370 (isolation #60) » Mon May 09, 2022 1:37 pm
Postby Irrelephant11 »
I dunno I think most of what I found weird about Datisi/Aristeia is being resolved by
-both working hard for town (maybe, maybe I'm accidentally just townreading lots of posts)
-reading a bit of their shared history, which is explaining why their earlygame dynamic seemed so complex so quickly
Why is it scummy for their shared history to... not repeat itself exactly as it has before?
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!