Micro 1075: The Coalition of Imaginary Creatures (Game over)
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Bingle Survivor
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I AM A BEAUTIFUL ANIMAL!
HEAL: Bingle
Sorry we couldn't do a rehash of your first game, Keychain. I guess you'll just have to settle for a subpar scumbuddy."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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So, I think I've come up with a way to break this setup.
We don't select a coalition D1, and when lilith goes to end the day she'll get confused by the fact that there is no instruction for when no coalition is formed and just reveal the scumteam."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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I didn't. But more importantly, what did you like about Keychain's entrance?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Non sequitur, that."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Some dead person's razorblades suggest that you were just the last person to confirm and not actually psychic, liesidegal."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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HEAL: DeltabreedyIn post 26, Deltabreedy wrote: I'm nota fan of that(The aggressive coalition building), to be honest.
My bad.
"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Delta, are you actually new or an alt? Doesn't actually influence my read at this point, just a point of curiosity."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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That's really unfortunate. My meta is being town, so it's really just easier overall if you townread me on that.In post 31, Deltabreedy wrote: For instance, I don't trust meta reads at all"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Interesting, we're seeing almost exactly the opposite thing here. I thought Key's entrance had a lot of frantic energy that came across as awkward, but is explained by the excitement she had in joining the game and therefore null to me.In post 33, Dunnstral wrote: Just a feeling. If you disagree that's fine. I didn't like Deltabreedy because they didn't make it clear if they were voting me because they disagreed with me or not; now I'm not sure why they are not a fan of my "aggressive coalition building"
I think Delta's non sequitur response where he didn't really seem to care much about making it understandable what he was saying, but rather just saying the first thing that popped into his head is the towniest thing in the thread right now."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Yeah, I'd think it slight scum indicative if I wasn't literally in the game because when I logged in to review a setup for someone for the first time in months I had an invitation to join from you.In post 41, Keychain wrote: I was camping the micro queue and then hassling people to join the game, your read of the frantic energy is correct and I am going to try and tone it down so the game isn't too annoying to read for the people who aren't here yet!"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Why would it being a prepared post suggest a specific alignment? If anything, the point of a prepared post would be to make the post AI neutral regardless and it would defeat the point to change it based on the role you actually drew.In post 53, Deltabreedy wrote: it was a prepared post"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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I legitimately don't think you could offend me if you tried, nsg.In post 60, northsidegal wrote: no offense"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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I thought she was claiming it was a bad post because it was intentionally designed to lead to a specific conclusion (which it was) as opposed to directly read delta.In post 69, Umlaut wrote: NSG, what is it that you find bad about 57? The problem I thought I saw with it isn't actually there.
The conclusion being that the post likely wasn’t prepared."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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I have good news and bad news. I’m not going to post game relevant content tonight. Also, my cousin’s cancer is in remission."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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There explicitly is a decent town motivation for not being in your proposed coalition. I very much doubt Kame knows what it is or believes it.
Dunn's chainsaw of Key feels off. I don't think it's damning of Dunn, but I do think it's a strong reason to believe Dunn/Kame is not a S/S pair. For this reason, I would like 0-1 of them in the coalition. Dunn, what specifically about Key's reasoning on Kame do you think is scum indicative. I get not agreeing, but why is it scummy?
I'm interested to hear nsg's thoughts on nsg townreads.
I'm fairly certain on my Delta townread at this point. His play has all the hallmarks of newbtown dropped into an established lobby. Yes, I understand the previous experience, but I think that would, if anything, increase the amount of trepidation about being this open and gung ho with reads when there's clearly a lot of baggage in the thread. Contrast patchwerk, who's posting seems very careful. I think either Delta is very confident in his scumgame or just town here, and I'm just not feeling big ego energy."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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^I don't mean to imply that patchwerk is scum with that post, and think the caution is NAI. I actually like that patch seems to be starting with familiar faces given the coalition mechanic."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Disagree strongly. Newbtown frequently have better reads than established players. The only real change is how they're likely to react to certain situations, like injokes between fogeys.In post 126, Deltabreedy wrote: I think it's NAI, but dropping the 'Newbtown' as a qualified when discussing my play will only serve to delegitimise reads and arguments that I develop further down the line. I'd appreciate you recanting and reconsidering the wording."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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That is the reason to include yourself in the coalition, yes. I'm explicitly not interested in talking about the reason for not including yourself in your coalition at this time.In post 133, patchwork wrote: but if you're town and your coalition doesn't that mean you only have to hunt for four towns?
Note: I am in fact including myself in my coalition."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Dunn attacked Key for questioning the Kame. I don't think it makes Dunn scum, but I do think it makes Dunn and Kame not S/S.In post 134, patchwork wrote: wait someone's chainsawing?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Because I intend to use the information that makes it reasonable later in the game and don't want scum to play around it and also because if Kame starts arguing it it's slightly town indicative.In post 138, patchwork wrote:why not?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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In post 70, patchwork wrote: i dont really like this aggressive coalition building but tbh there’s no harm in it
don’t really have time to think about the game run but ill get back soon
Representative careful posts. Overall, you seem hesitant to commit to anything. There's a lot of questioning and not a lot of actual explanation. There's a lot of emphasis on trying to figure things out and not a lot on sharing your conclusions.In post 71, patchwork wrote:
Delta it is page 3 why do you expect people to be gamesolving at likeIn post 68, Deltabreedy wrote: As an addendum, I don't see a single original thought from any of this post. Umlaut's #63 is a lot of words that broadly say 'I agree' or 'I disagree'. No attempt at game-solving.
Post #65 above has a question for (I think) Northside, wherein they agree that the post is bad, but are looking more towards me than the person that posted it? Odd.
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Ninja'd:One thing that I also don't particularly like is the quotation out of context by Bingle. The quote should read
notThe fact that I think it was a prepared post gives me bad vibesit was a prepared post
60 posts
The thing is that scum who aren't immediately confident in their scumgame (either because they're playing with new people or because they've never played before) are slightly more likely to play this way. The longer someone has been in a meta, the less this tell matters."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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^chainsaw post.In post 103, Dunnstral wrote: HURT: Keychain
I am a bit concerned that I don't like some of your posts and I feel better about patchwork and KawaiiKame than I do about you right now. I am reading KawaiiKame's posts differently than you are (they should explain what they are doing though)"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Mild scumread of patchwork at this point, btw."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Roughly where I'm at:
Town
Bingle
Deltabreedy
Dunnstral
KawaiiKame
northsidegal
Umlaut
patchwork
Keychain
Scum
Clodpoles:
Not_Mafia"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Is it necessarily scum tosh though or do you think it's a POV townwerk would have?In post 150, Deltabreedy wrote: absolute tosh."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Kame has posted vaguely aight things and nothing I find actively objectionable. They have the game state read of not scum with specifically dunn which gives them the edge on you. Dunn has posted things that are vaguely town, but not so much so that I want him on the coalition. Umlaut is a minor scumlean and patch and key are both giving off majorly appease-y buddy-y vibes. I don't think Key is slam dunk scum, but yeah, I'm pretty sold on no key-a-lition.In post 153, northsidegal wrote: elaborate on the kame read? or maybe i'm just misreading the placement as meaningful relative to where i am"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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There is a difference between being a genuinely nice person and faking niceness, but neither of those are what I mean by appease-y.In post 157, patchwork wrote: i'm trying to be nice because that's kind of what you're supposed to do when talking to people
Your play leaves me with the impression that you're trying to get me to trust you and tailoring your play to what you think I want to see. Tone has very little to do with that, overall."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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That's kind of... Exactly what I'm talking about. This flurry of activity in response to me saying you're not active enough makes me concerned that you're more focused on how people see you than their intentions. I also see very little paranoia about why I'm doing what I'm doing. You just seem to be accepting that my motivations are town ones.In post 160, patchwork wrote: you said that i wasn't doing much so i started participating more???"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Fair point. Kame's exclusion of themselves seems an interesting thing to dig into, but not one that I personally need to dig into, since there's enough people poking that particular horse. I'm content to sit and watch things there develop.
I don't think it's something that is going to be a dealbreaker on a coalition inclusion for me at this point."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Dunn feels pretty carefree here. This relaxed but active play from him feels very different than my vague recollection of his manipulative and lurky scumstyle. I also like the complete willingness to make dime turn reads reversals like the delta one.In post 33, Dunnstral wrote:
Just a feeling. If you disagree that's fine. I didn't like Deltabreedy because they didn't make it clear if they were voting me because they disagreed with me or not; now I'm not sure why they are not a fan of my "aggressive coalition building"In post 21, Bingle wrote: I didn't. But more importantly, what did you like about Keychain's entrance?
This seems like a protown stance to take. Honestly, it's not the end of the world if we don't win on coalition, and being proactive and flexible is +town points at this point.In post 34, Dunnstral wrote: I don't consider me putting somebody into the coalition to be me betting the game that they are town. I think being aggressive and pushing a coalition early based on gut feeling is more likely to be successful than dragging it on and allowing mafia to influence things. Also taking more time on day 1 when we have no info is not likely to be helpful to us.
Overall, Dunn doesn't seem like he's pushing a narrative or playing with an agenda, and while he's certainly capable of faking this as scum (or used to be) I think this is page 3 town.
I will say I'm not a big fan of the last couple posts though."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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In post 151, Bingle wrote: Roughly where I'm at:
Town
Bingle
Deltabreedy
Dunnstral
KawaiiKame
northsidegal
Umlaut
patchwork
Keychain
Scum
Clodpoles:
Not_Mafia
To clarify readstrength:
Bingle
Several pages
Delta
Several lines
Dunn
Kame
nsg
N_M
Umlaut
patch
key
Several Pages
ConfScum."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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I think you have absolutely no ability to read me, as evidenced by you coming to scumread me in literally every game I can ever remember playing with you, but that you will still listen when I speak enough that I don't really care. I think, aggregately, that you have better reads than I do, and none of the players I think I would be specifically better at reading than you are in this game. I think I will be able to figure out your alignment in the long term with decent accuracy. Given that I have 0 completed games in the last two years, I'm not incredibly confident on any of these points.In post 165, northsidegal wrote: interestingly, this exclusion pool exactly follows the heuristic that scum tend to be found in the lower half of posting frequency.
the direction of causality that you think that follows depends on your faith in my abilities as a scumhunter."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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As an aside, trying to change your playstyle to satisfy the expectations of others is likely to cripple your scumhunting effectiveness and not worth the time. Do what you need to do to find scum.In post 167, patchwork wrote: i took what you said as criticism lol not like "omg this is what people want me to do so i am doing it now"
In this game, I think you are vaguely scummy for the way you have approached me and you're not going to convince me that those impressions are wrong by telling me those impressions are wrong. If you're town, go ahead and accept that I think you're more likely scum than not and do things you think will benefit town. My reads will evolve as the game progresses. If you're scum, go ahead and accept that I think you're more likely scum than not and do things you think will benefit scum. My reads will evolve as the game progresses. Either way, fixating on a single player and their read is a great way to eat an early elimination."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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If I were to make a coalition right now it'd be me, delta, dunn, nsg, umlaut. Yes, I'm aware that this is not the 5 people I think are towniest."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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I don't want to know who they are if you have, but have you put any thought into associative reads?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
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Despite not liking this post, I think I should unpack this a bit.In post 170, Dunnstral wrote: I don't want to come across as chainsawing.
I don't think that you intended the play as a chainsaw, or that you were specifically trying to rescue Kami. I don't even really think theoretical scum you was intentionally WK-ing Kame with that post, which might have been implied by my phrasing. But that, legitimately, is what it accomplished. Your retraction of a town read on Key immediately following Key's push on Kame undermined said push without directly defending Kame. That, by definition, is a chainsaw.
I think a theoretical scumyou who is scum with Kame would be more in tune to how your interactions would look and would naturally be more hesitant to make this kind of attack. That's the beginning and end of it."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Focusing on how other people read you is the worst approach to mafia, ime.In post 181, patchwork wrote: what does this mean"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I guess this will probably be necessary eventually, so to get it out of the way:
I'm Bingle. Also Jingle. At one point I was probably in the top 10% of scum players on site. I used to be okay at playing town, but nothing amazing.
I'm also best known for being an excellent moderator and a damn good reviewer, mostly of opens and mechanically complicated theme games.
It is my game philosophy to not lie about the mechanical advantages provided by tactics, so you can safely assume that when I say something mechanically oriented it is entirely NAI and also that I believe that there is a protown reason for me to promote that belief. I do lie about things being protown, but almost exclusively it's because I think telling the truth is actively harmful to town and rarely it's because telling the truth will mechanically lock scum me out of winning the game. I think locking in a coalition should be done by Friday at the latest."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Hi Mary Jo Lisa.
I can’t help but notice your reads list is an inversion of mine. Have you been standing on your head again?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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This is true, btw. NM is playing as NM plays. It is frustrating as hell and unhelpful sometimes, but he genuinely does play to win.In post 210, Not_Mafia wrote: I am taking this seriously, I've given reads and a co-alition
River is almost certainly deltabreedy, as a river delta is formed when a river deposits silt at the outlet."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Are you saying the chainsaw wasn't AI or that what I actually got from the chainsaw wasn't valid? Cause I think we're on the same page now but I want to double check.In post 223, Umlaut wrote: This on the other hand is a bad read"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Theoretically it is, but it's a shitty scumtell.In post 227, Umlaut wrote: "chainsaw" as being the name of a scumtell"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Hm. I wonder if they got rid of the old custom double hurt tags.
HURT WITH A BLADE: test
Excellent."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I mean... It kinda is.In post 274, Keychain wrote: Yeah but 1 in 5 is not improved odds from 2 in 9... unless I can't do maths
So, the thing I didn't explain earlier is this:
Coalition Victory > 2 Scum in Coalition > 2 Scum outside of Coalition. If you are absolutely sure that scum will be on the coalition, you want both scum on the coalition. You also want high priority nightkills on the coalition, because then scum is forced to make the suboptimal choice of narrowing the coalition pool if they want that person dead. Which is why nsg is 100% on the coalition. Delta slot (Hey Eir) is pretty obvtown at this point.
Not_Mafia, even if he were modconfirmed town, is a shit option for a coalition slot, because scum will never shoot him, unless we actually commit to the policy elim. I'm not interested in the policy elim at the moment.
If we choose an accurate coalition, game is over. If not, limming on coalition is a 30% to hit scum (naive calculation with the assumption that P(1 on and 1 off) and P(Both on) are the same) and off coalition is a 12.5% to hit scum. If we can increase the odds that both scum are either on or off (by seperating S/T reads and collecting S/S reads) we approach a 40% lim rate on D1, which is a pretty good consolation prize.
It's like Monty Hall, the odds of switching your choice giving you a car are better than you might intuitively guess."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I use silver on Bingle and Sepia on Jingle. MafBlack is reserved for hydrae.In post 310, patchwork wrote: ewwwww light mode mafiascum exists?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Given a failed coalition, we're in 1 of 2 states. Either there is 1 scum in the coalition (1/5 or 20%) or 2 scum in the coalition (2/5 or 40%).In post 321, northsidegal wrote: it's not super relevant, but explain where you're getting 30% from? my naive analysis gave that eliminating from within the coalition (while being reads agnostic, i.e. assuming that everyone in the coalition is a genuine scum candidate) is optimal unless you're about 62% sure that there's only one scum in, and if you're 50/50 on it then you have a 20% chance to hit scum. saying that, i think that maybe i'll rethink about it given the fact that i know that i'm town and also taking into consideration people overwhelmingly considered consensus townreads (although just saying that it seems to also favor eliminating within the coalition).
The naive assumption is that those two are equally likely, and the math gets arbitrarily complicated if we don't make that assumption. If they are equally likely, the odds of eliminating scum inside of that pool is the average of the two probabilities, or 30%.
This is from the PoV of someone outside of the pool who is informed of 0 alignments. From the PoV of someone inside the pool who is town, the numbers jump to 25% and 50% (an average of 37.5%)."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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They're not mutually exclusive. Priority 1: put town in coalition. Priority 2: if you're unsure on 5 townreads, group likely teams together. It's an additive layer of strategy, not a replacement.In post 324, Keychain wrote: Though I do think Umlaut's strategy appeals more to me"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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HEAL: nsg
dunn"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Already mentioned the read on Dunn. I have also been feeling better about Umlaut recently, and wouldn't strenuously object to his inclusion. I think if he's scum it's likely to be with Dunn or you and I don't think either Dunn or you is likely scum at the moment.In post 343, northsidegal wrote: i strongly oppose these 3 people being in the coalition and would like anyone who currently has them in their coalition to explain their reasoning
Honestly kind of surprised that I'm not in the top 5, given that I feel I'm being fairly townread atm.
Is your exclusion of Kame from this list because you're feeling better about them or because they don't have the votes that you feel the need to voice your concern?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle - conftown from my POV
Eiralox - treating this as spewed town today. The particular frustration at N_M is a town one, I think. I doubt scum gets that upset over N_M being unreadable when N_M doesn't look unlimmable.
Not_Mafia - I'm not going to bother partner hunting N_M, I don't think that's a useful way to spend my time.
northsidegal
Dunnstral
Umlaut
patchwork
KawaiiKame
Keychain
That's 15 scumteams for me to examine. I can handle that."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Ok, can you post it at 2:32.56 AM next Thursday?In post 370, Not_Mafia wrote: Anytime"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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All of them."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I'd only gotten halfway through nsg, but the post I'd left on my desktop seems to have disappeared. I'm not sure how much of this I'll get to tonight, but I hope to at least get through the 5 nsg options since they should go fast.In post 350, Bingle wrote: Bingle - conftown from my POV
Eiralox - treating this as spewed town today. The particular frustration at N_M is a town one, I think. I doubt scum gets that upset over N_M being unreadable when N_M doesn't look unlimmable.
Not_Mafia - I'm not going to bother partner hunting N_M, I don't think that's a useful way to spend my time.
northsidegal
Dunnstral
Umlaut
patchwork
KawaiiKame
Keychain
That's 15 scumteams for me to examine. I can handle that.
NSDunn: Possible, but unlikely. NSG townreads dunn early and it slips when she herself becomes very locktown, so it's potentially a thing that she was aware that scum's optimal out here is one on one off. 155 is particularly interesting as a set up for a bus without teeth (we're absolutely limming off the coalition group if we get that far) and nsg seems to be paying a lot of attention to dunn in particular. I don't know if nsg sets up a bus, though. Seems dangerous for a player who is considered very strong town and thus should theoretically have a short shelf life. I'm also not sure this tracks with Dunn popping back in right when nsg starts the "No Dunns in Brooklyn" campaign.
nörth: Very Unlikely. 13 is a bit antipartnery. Umlaut's steady downward trajectory through her readlist without much explanation or interaction doesn't feel like bus energy. As an aside, I think umlaut is considerably better than I did before having reiso'd here. Interested to see if that trend continues when I ISO them and the other usual suspects.
northpatch: The psychic abilities back and forth reads weird here. The patchwork defense of nsg comes across awkward, being entirely aimed at delta and not at all at NSG. NSG not having a scumread here in 96 is also a little :eyebrows: If nsg scum this is the most viable partner so far.
Turtleside: I think the biggest interaction read here is 356. Dismissing nsg/key as TvT seems low effort, but I'm not sure how Kame treats scum partners. Kame seems very unworried for someone with literally no one townreading them and townreads on all but two players, which could mean a well positioned scumbuddy.
@Kame: Do you have any completed scumgames I can look at? I assume no, but no harm in asking.
The Scary Team: I'm lowkey worried because the 1v1 here that people are dismissing as town is a great position for scum. Like, honestly, this team is possible, and also probably the worst possible case for town. I'm just gonna ignore it for now, though."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Addendum, this also seems very antipartnery. Seems weird to sheep nsg's read blindly then actually admit that and recant if they're S/S.In post 376, Bingle wrote: nörth: Very Unlikely. 13 is a bit antipartnery. Umlaut's steady downward trajectory through her readlist without much explanation or interaction doesn't feel like bus energy. As an aside, I think umlaut is considerably better than I did before having reiso'd here. Interested to see if that trend continues when I ISO them and the other usual suspects.
Sträl: Decently likely. 107 is a challenge that never gets answered or followed up on, which is odd. Both players went lurk shortly after, so it's not too hair raising, but I'd like to see where that reaction goes from there and they should probably get to that. I definitely raised Umlaut's hackles a bit with the chainsaw read, but umlaut seems uninterested in pursuing it when he realizes I mean it entirely as an anti associative tell. Weird situation where Umlaut gets offended when Key's read slips down for brief inactivity and then immediately mentions the read on Dunn slipping for inactivity of roughly the same duration.
Dunwork: Absolutely no interaction until very recently, where dunn asks patch to unpack a "don't Coalate" read on another player after patch comes out with a don't coalate dunn read. Nothing really precluding or making this more likely.
DunnKame: Unlikely. See chainsaw comment. Additionally the way Kame describes going about copying Dunn's strategy for coalitioning in 108 doesn't seem like scum copying a scumbuddy. Potentially scum copying a town player if I squint. This assumes you believe that the explanation of 108 means Kame thinks aggressive coalition building is a towny thing to do, but I don't see why they would enter the way they did if they don't.
Dunnchain: No really meaningful interactions. Could go either way with this crowd."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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That's it for tonight. Should be able to manage the rest tomorrow."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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If that is in response to the above it’s worth pointing out that I’m not looking at whether the individuals are scummy but whether they can be paired. I would be shocked to find anyone in the pool that didn’t have any likely partners."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Fair nuff."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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And thus we struggle onwards in that most futile effort we call life.
Umpatch: 85 is a pretty weak read, but I feel like the thought is a genuine one. I don't agree that the waffling is really a progression, but I think calling it one means that the explanation a few posts later is a real reason. That points to S/T or T/T, because it's usually harder to get a genuine townread on your buddy. (Aside, definitely think patch never responding to this is interesting.) Um doubles down on a weak reason to read patch town in 181. Seems like an odd move to stick out your neck for a struggling buddy when you're not in a particularly strong position yourself. Patch never mentions Umlaut. Could be that Umlaut is just aware of the weirdness of never mentioning a scumbuddy, but I lean to not a team here.
Kawaï: Eminently possible. kawaii calls um town twice. The first is blank in a coalition vote, the second is "shifting reads with new information." As of the first townread that doesn't really describe Um's behavior. In fact, Um is basically doing the opposite (holding to the patch read despite Key arguing against it) which implies the read might be faked.
Chäin: Lotsa weird byplay here. Key calls out Umlaut for inactivity and backs down easily when Umlaut wasn't missing particularly long. There's also the disagreement over patch where they just kind of stop talking about patch. It's weird for scum to have sentiments about mindmelding with their buddy. gth this is not how an S/S interaction plays out here."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Unpack this for me?In post 384, Umlaut wrote:Keychain"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Patchwork/Kame: Patch being hyperaware of players not being around yet makes sense if they're waiting on a scumbuddy, but patch trying to bus kawaii for cred and 367 in general just really doesn't make sense for scum to post if they're both scum. Kame's list not containing patch in it is also really antipartnery, particularly given the poor position they'd both be in. Seems like a good way to lose. I doubt this is S/S.
Locksmith: 92 Seems like it could be partner/partner. First point of interaction between the two, and it's a request from Key to have Umlaut explain a townread on patch. This is a great way as scum to cement a townread on your buddy, which I know Keychain knows having used it to great effect in her literal first game. Particularly, the fact that she's content to just let it drop with an agree to disagree makes this noteworthy. (Yes, I'm aware of the fact that I literally just asked Umlaut to explain his townread on Keychain. That's different and the rules don't apply to me because I'm just awesome like that.)
KawaiiKeychain: 99 feels a little on the nose.