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Post #33 (isolation #3) » Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:38 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 21, Bingle wrote:
I didn't. But more importantly, what did you like about Keychain's entrance?
Just a feeling. If you disagree that's fine. I didn't like Deltabreedy because they didn't make it clear if they were voting me because they disagreed with me or not; now I'm not sure why they are not a fan of my "aggressive coalition building"
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Post #34 (isolation #4) » Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:43 am
Postby Dunnstral »
I don't consider me putting somebody into the coalition to be me betting the game that they are town. I think being aggressive and pushing a coalition early based on gut feeling is more likely to be successful than dragging it on and allowing mafia to influence things. Also taking more time on day 1 when we have no info is not likely to be helpful to us.
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Post #103 (isolation #6) » Mon Mar 27, 2023 5:01 am
Postby Dunnstral »
HURT: Keychain
I am a bit concerned that I don't like some of your posts and I feel better about patchwork and KawaiiKame than I do about you right now. I am reading KawaiiKame's posts differently than you are (they should explain what they are doing though)
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Post #105 (isolation #7) » Mon Mar 27, 2023 6:27 am
Postby Dunnstral »
I think that they don't think that other people will agree to put them into the coalition for their contributions so far, and simply put in who they thought was town - and I agree with their thoughts on who is town
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Post #170 (isolation #8) » Mon Mar 27, 2023 2:38 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 124, Bingle wrote:
There explicitly is a decent town motivation for not being in your proposed coalition. I very much doubt Kame knows what it is or believes it.
Dunn's chainsaw of Key feels off. I don't think it's damning of Dunn, but I do think it's a strong reason to believe Dunn/Kame is not a S/S pair. For this reason, I would like 0-1 of them in the coalition. Dunn, what specifically about Key's reasoning on Kame do you think is scum indicative. I get not agreeing, but why is it scummy?
I'm interested to hear nsg's thoughts on nsg townreads.
I'm fairly certain on my Delta townread at this point. His play has all the hallmarks of newbtown dropped into an established lobby. Yes, I understand the previous experience, but I think that would, if anything, increase the amount of trepidation about being this open and gung ho with reads when there's clearly a lot of baggage in the thread. Contrast patchwerk, who's posting seems very careful. I think either Delta is very confident in his scumgame or just town here, and I'm just not feeling big ego energy.
I don't want to come across as chainsawing. What happened was I was reading the thread and I agreed with patchwork looking towny for something they did. And then I had a positive reaction to KawaiiKame's first 2 posts. So I looked at my coalition and I thought about where I could make space to slot in new people who are more likely town than the old people, and Keychain was where my positive feelings were the weakest.
I did not remove Keychain in reaction to their thoughts on KawaiiKame - that is simply something that I also wanted to talk about given my above thought process. With that said I'm not scumreading what keychain said about KawaiiKame, I just disagree.
It's jarring to see somebody with a 2017 join date advocating to eliminate the least active players. I looked it over again and this wasn't as strong as I remembered and I can believe that NSG holds that opinion so I put them back in the coalition.
On that note upon review KawaiiKame seems to be dodging this game in particular, which I feel is not a good sign for them.
In post 468, Dunnstral wrote:
If this game continues past coalition phase, players who were excluded cannot be aligned with each other
Scum can gain optimal gamestate control by having a universally townread player (eg. Eiralox, northsidegal) and an outsider (KawaiiKame, Not_Mafia, patchwork).
Having one and in and one off can help with nightkills and all kind of 'lim on coalition' POE tricks.
There are definitely scenarios where scum won't blatantly include each other in their coalitions with future gamestate in mind.
What Dunnstral says has merit, perhaps, overall scum would aim to have their buddy on for contingency's sake, but the above statement is far too strident and... confident? Weird? Something... for my tastes.
I've never played a coalition game, Dunnstral is quite experienced so I'm not sure why some possibilities are being excluded, put me on record on not liking this post.
In post 468, Dunnstral wrote:
If this game continues past coalition phase, players who were excluded cannot be aligned with each other
Perhaps we should take advantage of that instead of putting all of our strategy into vibe checks before anybody has been eliminated?
I'm with you in all of this, no one who is excluded is a potential alignment, have we decided in who's in the coalition?
And this one even less.
Kawaii/Dunnstral time might not be so clumsy as to have this above interaction, but I have both these players in 'don't want et' for good reason.
No, like. If the game continues past the first phase, that means we were wrong so there has to be mafia in the coalition. So they can't both be outside of it.
In post 468, Dunnstral wrote:
Perhaps we should take advantage of that instead of putting all of our strategy into vibe checks before anybody has been eliminated?
Do you maybe want to weigh in on my partner analysis?
You had a good point about nsg having a lot of possible partners open so I was rethinking that.
I like when you exclude pairs, but I'm not going to look at a hypothetical pair and be able to say that they are the scum team.
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Post #591 (isolation #21) » Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:15 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 549, Umlaut wrote:
I actually think this coalition has a good chance of winning because everyone on it looks pretty town to me, and I have no idea what I will do next if it fails.
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Post #592 (isolation #22) » Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:17 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 584, Eiralox wrote:
I stated those reasons long before you said I'm not stating any reasons. That was a repeat, before you said I'm only looking only looking from a partenered perspective I had an entire post up why nsg can be scum independently. It's framings of narrative such as these that will not make me trust you or your coalition, among other factors.
If the coalition everyone seems to be heading towards fails btw I'll look at nsg and umlaut, yes.
If no one bites, Kawaii is my lim. Straight up outside of an actual scumread kawaii is an excellent lim, if we get little from them today I'm not going to keep my hopes up and just straight up policy over N_M. Kawaii over patch any day.
I believe I've covered everything I want to. I'm ok with my coalition but would prefer dunnstral over umlaut. If there's any chance tho I have to compromise somewhere.
It would be lovely to hear from everyone before there's an actual hammer.
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Post #593 (isolation #23) » Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:19 am
Postby Dunnstral »
The current coalition will definitely fail because nobody is trying to change it. And if it were all town mafia would lose instantly, so they'd be up in arms about it.
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Post #608 (isolation #27) » Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:50 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 603, Eiralox wrote:
@Keychain: I'm real sorry but maybe Not_Mafia or patchwork can hammer for you before tommorow. I'm a hesitant coward rn.
VOTE: KawaiiKame
I'm not planning on voting outside of the coalition if it fails by the way. That means there are 1-2 mafia in the coalition, and 0-1 outside of it. Even knowing that I'm town, it's still better odds to vote inside the coalition. From your point of view knowing you're town you should have even more reason to vote inside the coalition I'd think.
In post 593, Dunnstral wrote:
The current coalition will definitely fail because nobody is trying to change it. And if it were all town mafia would lose instantly, so they'd be up in arms about it.
I feel like this is not true though? Like, eir is trying to change it. Patch is sheeping eir. You/nsg/Kawaii have all just been gone. The only excluded player who *could* be trying to change it, isn't and is here is me and I don't think its a reasonable ask to get me on a coalition at this point.
People who are gone are not trying to change it though. And Eir is in the coalition already, so they can't be mafia who is trying not to lose right now
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Post #694 (isolation #36) » Wed Apr 05, 2023 8:18 am
Postby Dunnstral »
I almost want to vote nsg out of policy for heavily campaigning for what the coalition should be and now going radio silent. All while heavily criticizing my activity earlier in the day.
I'm holding back though because all of that is more annoying than it is scummy.
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Post #695 (isolation #37) » Wed Apr 05, 2023 8:23 am
Postby Dunnstral »
Keychain sounds a little awkward to me in recent pages but I read that as being town due to not having played in a long while. I had this same read at the start of the game.
I am sold on Eiralox being town right now
Umlaut/Not Mafia I don't know. Umlaut makes a good point in 652, so maybe it is keychain or nsg?
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Post #703 (isolation #39) » Wed Apr 05, 2023 1:30 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 698, Keychain wrote:
distinct lack of north since the coalition vote failed means I don't dislike this vote as much as I did previously :igmeou: apart from that I don't really have further thoughts - I'm not going to reread the game tonight and I won't have time tomorrow, plus I honestly don't think it'd even help me so I'm completely sheeping umlaut and praying.
also "read" being the same in present and past tense when written but not when spoken is an orthographic disaster
My biggest concern wrt keychain is tonal, but I think it's completely reasonable that's a result of excitement to play again after a long hiatus. NSG used to be a player who struggled hard with town activity as scum, and her absence jives with that. It's possible she's just absent, but I think she'd be more likely to force herself to play with the pride she has in her towngame than her scumgame.
Also, both umlaut and key have had posts today where they put forward a lot of effort that wasn't entirely necessary. They could have just sat back and let town lurk itself to oblivion, but they didn't, and I think that earns townpoints.
In post 700, Keychain wrote:
Oh yeah I saw this earlier and thought it was weird but forgot to respond until now:
In post 643, Not_Mafia wrote:
It isn't me, if I were scum I wouldn't have bothered trying to get myself into the coalition, I would have boosted my partner
you were trying to get yourself into the coalition? when? It didn't appear to me that you cared but this post suggests you were paying pretty close attention, and especially gives the impression you were doing exactly what you say you weren't, in trying to get yourself in there.
In post 677, Keychain wrote:
It's more that if umlaut is scum pocketing me, his play is probably to get me to help elim north today then eliminate
me
tomorrow since I'm in a much more precarious position than him. so yeah super hope he's not doing that and if he is it'll make me feel better later if I at least acknowledged the possibility!
Particularly for Keychain, the first post is Keychain risking alienating N_M more to investigate his alignment. I don't think scum keychain does this, because I don't think it has good odds of actually helping her survive. This comes across more as actually caring that she's right on N_M than shopping for an elimination.
The second one is very self aware in a way that scum doesn't want to appear. Like, scum keychain absolutely has the thought that even if she wins this 1v1 she's probably in another 1v1 tomorrow, but does scum keychain actually EXPRESS that thought? It's shitty optics, and she'd know that. /inb4 WIFOM of that's exactly why she does it, but it just doesn't seem like a scum play to me.
Well I think taht NSG lurking is due to them being busy and NAI and that Keychain looking at N_M could be because they wanted to save themselves in case NSG didn't go through
In post 759, Dunnstral wrote:
I think it likely that there is mafia between penguinpower and patchwork
Could be, but I'm interested in why you think it.
I don't like Patchwork's reaction to Bingle and what they had to say, I don't like that KawaiiKame got pointed out for being different from their town games and never answered for that.
And if neither of them are mafia, then to me that means both mafia are in the coalition, which I'm not entirely discounting but I find unlikely due to my personal reads.
in coalition it's probably between umlaut and keychain, but i'm more confident on keychain
out of coalition it's between you and kawaii, more confident on kawaii because they're a solid null while you're also null but more townleany
And how confident are you that there is 1 in 1 out vs 2 in the coalition?
