Micro 269: See Nine Minus Minus (Game Over!)

[Titus]

VOTE: BBMolla

Why are you so eager to sheep on Day 1? Also, why are you associating town with right? Why all the vote shifting so early?

[Titus]

Titus or Bulba, one of you be town so I can sheep you to victory pls

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Stuffed Crust
^scum

That surely looks like an urge to sheep. You are also assuming town players are right. Just a bad post all the way around.

[Titus]

We're not even on page 5 and you're already not paying attention....

[Titus]

That speaks to my character more than my alignment

That "character" is not the same one that played BB Mafia.

[Titus]

?

You need to reread then, I think we had some semantical issue fight just like this iirc

What about you're being fake and eager to buddy and sheep is a semantic fight?

Timeshift are you an alt? Have you read C9++ (the prequel)?

[Titus]

I cannot actually think anything of him until he at least fakes understanding until he makes it. There's no content.

BBMolla, I still don't see semantics in what I'm saying. Also, why are you interpreting this as making the game boring. That makes no sense.



Tiershift, the players are almost identical with a few exceptions (you and obscurity being a couple). It's a mini normal (more players). Just a heads up, Day 1 broke the record for the longest day 1 in mafia scum history.

[Titus]

Bulba, why is Molla town? His play makes no sense to me as town motivated given the departure from BBMafia and things that look objective scummy IMO.

[Titus]

Seriously though why isn't Obscurity dead yet

Why do you want him dead?

Tiershift, the players are almost identical with a few exceptions (you and obscurity being a couple). It's a mini normal (more players). Just a heads up, Day 1 broke the record for the longest day 1 in mafia scum history.

Ok...I don't have that much time on my hands...now I get the references though. I've been searching for the game but can't find it, link please?

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=29913

[Titus]

@Stuffed Crust, I never got into N's large theme game. It's the only game I have been forced out of. I didn't see town forgetful BBMolla though.

@Obscurity, is your plan to intentionally be scummy?

[Titus]

DP, you have me as a scumread and townread the guy who outs a PR. That doesn't make sense.

BB, How do you know which players are town PR or scum with no flips. The added...or town PR makes me think you claimed scum and outed your buddy by mistake

Mod, I posted the above verbatim in another game by mistake. I will let you decide what to do about that. I asked for a redaction.

[Titus]

I really don't get how so many people are townreading Molla. I am aware of my own tendancy to tunnel though so I am going to take some time and reread. Claiming a player is town for being stupid violates the first rule of mafia to me.

VOTE: Bulbazak

Post 134 is bad and I want answers for that.

[Titus]

come on then bulba, what do you want to talk about?

Why aren't you getting involved with this game? This isn't like you at all.

were we not engaged with the game when you voted us in the first post?

Seeing as you disappeared soon after that, nope.

you're acting really fucking strange.

How so?

Or town PR, one of those.

Why would you even mention this?

We are less than 200 posts in, your vote was an rvs and didn't require responding to, your statement about not getting into the game is vague. This is a strawman scumread.

[Titus]

A strawman scumread is a scumread that has no substance. Much like a strawman argument but the argument is a scumread.

What do you mean that SC isn't engaging. I see questions and responses. Thus your engage is a strawman.

[Titus]

A strawman scumread is a scumread that has no substance. Much like a strawman argument but the argument is a scumread.

Me thinks you don't know what a strawman is.

What do you mean that SC isn't engaging. I see questions and responses. Thus your engage is a strawman.

Do you now? I see words but no substance.

No. You are reframing the issue as activity at early game start rather than discussing the context of his posts. Thus, a strawman. If you give content reasons why, I will listen.

[Titus]

The context of his posts have been him lying about engaging. He has not been engaging with this game, and then he says I'm acting strangely because I'm suspecting him? Bull crap.

Let's not even get into how crappy his Obscurity vote is.

I don't feel he is lying. Why don't you want to get into how crappy the Obscurity vote is assuming arguendo that the vote is crappy and that would help your case?

[Titus]

Great thank you. You can remove the links if you want.

Regardless, if Obscurity doesn't start posting more, I'm literally advocating a policy lynch on them.

If they're scum, yay, we got lurking scum.

If they're town, yay, he won't lurk and then hammer me incorrectly in LYLO.

Of course, if he actually starts frequently posting, I'm willing to reconsider.

This is why I don't like the obs wagon. It gives scum a place to hide. Both town and scum lurk. BBMolla is pushing an easy wagon when others are put under the spotlight.

Obviously, I am not townreading Obs. He is just a better way of confirming if we have a vig/sk in the setup, bc he's the obvious vig shooting target.

We lynch someone else and we have information.

[Titus]

Vote FuDuzn

I actually like the Obs-vig idea.

Why do you like it?

I hate the use of the word actually here. It conveys a sense of shock, as if ideas from me automatically suck. On day 1, you have no rationale for such a belief.

Obs should be vigged. Vigging is better than policy lynching. If obs comes back before settling on a lynch target, maybe he can start making educated guesses (which is all we're doing) at who the scum are.

Why were you content to repeat Day 1 Bulba?

[Titus]

I'm not moving my vote until Obscurity gets in here and answers my questions.
Those are two separate things, too.
I want Obscurity to play the game,
I want Obscurity to answer my questions.


-V

I understand but he's seen he'll be the vig target with no exception unless he starts putting out reads and interrogating people. There is no bigger incentive than that.

What is your stance on Cherry Dr. Pepper?

[Titus]

Why all this speculation about the vig?
There is a 29% chance there is a 1-shot vig and a 5% chance that there is a full vig, if my math is correct.
Are you all saying a 1-shot vig should shoot already?
Are you ready to let an obscurity lynch go on the slim possibility that there is a vig?

I really get the feeling I'm missing something here.

It's not speculation. Obscurity is lynchbait if not scum. While I don't care to do the maths, it seems like a harmless way to get rid of a liability and to confirm if there is some sort of shooting role at the same time. The only people who should object to the plan are Obscurity (who can fix this by contributing) or his hypothetical scumbuddies. The vig does something useful if Obscurity does NOT contribute, even if it is a policy vigging. We do not stall by blathering about a player that provides no content. Instead, the active players can turn their attention onto each other, giving scum no place to hide.

[Titus]

At this point I'm down to vote Fu, I don't even really think Obscurity is scum anymore (if he could just post like, twice a frequently, he'd be wonderful).

Gimme a sec to sit on his wagon a bit more just to give him a little more incentive to post. And so I can make sure I don't accidentally hammer.

This makes my skin crawl.

[Titus]

@Titus: I think the mention of the accidental hammer is weird, but
What's your issues with the post?

-V

He's voting someone who

a) He doesn't think is scum
b) Pushes someone as scum and doesn't vote for them
c) Doesn't give reason for his sudden switch on Obscurity
d) Gives no reason why Fu is scum


VOTE: BBMolla

My vote should have never left.

[Titus]

You seem out of sorts, your faux pas of referring to an ongoing game is a big part of what I am talking about. Maybe aloof was the wrong choice of words, but you just seem different from other games I have played with you when you were town. And no I don't have many other specifics to cite, just your general vibe you have going this game, I can't shake it.

Mark my words, this BB boy ain't right.

Vote him then.

[Titus]

No, I already stated I would rather vote with brain rather than gut. Are you just using my gut suspicion to further a BB wagon?

I find that bullshit. This sounds like an excuse to push someone as scum but not vote them. I get not voting one at a time, but you cannot argue for someone as a scumread and then refuse to vote them.

[Titus]

@Titus: I think the mention of the accidental hammer is weird, but
What's your issues with the post?

-V

He's voting someone who

a) He doesn't think is scum
b) Pushes someone as scum and doesn't vote for them
c) Doesn't give reason for his sudden switch on Obscurity
d) Gives no reason why Fu is scum


VOTE: BBMolla

My vote should have never left.

Even if Obscurity is town, if he posts like he does right now for the rest of game, he's definitely going to mislynch me in LYLO.
I've advocated to lynch people who I think are detrimental, but town, before.
Just ask Bulba, I thought he was town in the first Voided nightless but agreed to lynch him in exchange for a scum lynch the next day.

Who'd I push as scum and not vote for? If it was Fu it's because I'm not too sure on that and don't know what the votecount is at. Or was at.

I already said I thought Obscurity's calmness was different than I expected

Fu not being engaged isn't what I remember from town Fu, it's okay though, he came back and I feel a bit better about him after his wierd "BB FEELS WIERD" shpeal.

Translation: I do not trust fellow town members. Rather than educating, I will lynch them. Plus, that gives BB!scum cover. I will lay the seeds for changing back to obsscum in the same post.

Translation 2: Now that Fu's not FoSing me, he's ok.

[Titus]

Sakura or DP, are you seriously asking my why scum would want to lynch town? Push a policy lynch, town gets no information and its a mislynch. The scum motivation is far more obvious to me than the town.

Town shouldn't lynch people they believe are town, especially when Obscurity like people can reform or be vig shot.

[Titus]

Titus, why so scummy?

I agree with cherry that scum almost never pushes on their townreads (which you say BB is doing). They just don't and you know. Then you misrep what she said willfully and completely?

If I weren't voting Fu, I'd be voting you.

I didn't misrep. BBMolla said he was voting someone who he believed was town. Town don't do that, especially in that playerbase. Where do you think the misrep is? I will show you EXACTLY where I got that and how I reached my conclusions.

[Titus]

Tell me where the scum motivation is in lynching people he calls town. Town motivation is get rid of liabilities. Wouldnt you think scum would be like this? They'd be far more likely to just, uhm idk, insist that someone is scum?

Sakura or DP, are you seriously asking my why scum would want to lynch town?

Looks like a misrep to me.

Why does that look like a misrep?


@Bulba, I am aware of what a policy lynch is. However, they are not done on town reads IMO. They are done on people that are unknown and dangerous.

@SC, We have no idea what PRs are in the game. I am obsessed with clears. Iftwo people die, we get a one day dual lynch. Let's be teal. Assume obstown, no scum in their right mind would shoot him. He's lynchbait. By having the vig shoot Obs (if there is one), it gains us a free lynch, and gives us a possible clear in massclaim. If obs doesn't die, scum cannot claim vig in mylo/lylo. Win win.

[Titus]

Mark my words, this BB boy ain't right.

I could just be a cool PR who wants to use his power before he's outed yknow

Oh right Fu was the power role or scum.

Forgot about that whole ordeal.

Sorry I think I've overloaded myself lately so that might be a part of me being wierd.

BBM, why are you so intent on softing/outing PR's? Even if you are a PR, outing yourself like this on D1 is suicidal.
There's no reflexive/immune roles in the setup (Bulletproof, Paranoid Gun Owner, etc), so the only reason I could see for doing this is if you're a VT trying to draw a night kill. Even then, scum could run a similar gambit and be like, "GUESS MY PR SOFT GAMBIT WAS TOO OBVIOUS" to explain how they didn't die at night. Ultimately, it's anti-town. It opens a big can of WIFOM that's exploitable on all ends.

This is why I don't like talking about PRs. It bugs me that other people are so obsessed with them--looking at you, Titus. I don't understand why you'd be acting like a Vig is in the setup and trying to draw the vig shot to Obscurity. It's against town utility, because now scum will avoid shooting Obscurity if Obscurity is town, and if Obscurity is scum, you've given Obs a blanket to hide behind. If Obscurity doesn't die, then the response is easily, "Guess there's no Vig in the setup and scum doesn't want to double-up on the kill 'cus they figure a vig would shoot me" or whatever. Again, it's against town utility to try to direct/out the vig shot like that.

That's my major beef with you guys right now. Shut up about PRs. It's not helping, and it's against your wincon since It makes me really suspicious of you--and that's the last thing you want as scum or town.

-V

You're thinking about stupid things I say way too much

Translation: Stop analyzing me and look elsewhere. Everything said is said for purpose and thus worth analyzing. There is no such thing as over analysis, just good or bad analysis.

[Titus]

Sentence 1 is the translation. The rest is why BBMolla is a scumfuck.

[Titus]

Tell me where the scum motivation is in lynching people he calls town. Town motivation is get rid of liabilities. Wouldnt you think scum would be like this? They'd be far more likely to just, uhm idk, insist that someone is scum?

Sakura or DP, are you seriously asking my why scum would want to lynch town?

Looks like a misrep to me.

Why does that look like a misrep?

Cherry says that scum don't lynch their townREADS, you ask why they wouldn't wanna lynch town.

I'll do some more in-depth reactions to the last posts soon.

1) Scum do not have townreads. So I really don't understand the distinction here.
2) How the hell can anyone be legitimately townreading Obscurity at this point?

[Titus]

That's wifom. Scum can fake town motivation, at least the good ones can. Also, scum can call someone a liability and get a free pass for lynching town. If there is the possibility of a vig, let the vig handle it.

I like my plan. We handle Obs at night rather than resetting at Day 1. I want more viable information for Day 2. Association who was in favor of which lynch. Obscurity doesn't help with that. If he wants to live, he will contribute.

[Titus]

Ugh. Distancing language.

[Titus]

Tiershift, I am more easily understood as scum than town because I already know who is scum.

Bulba, No. I don't understand. What is your case on Fu? I have a townread on him.

[Titus]

Silver Bard - Sometimes I feel like the group doesn't understand English. I find it helpful if I cannot read a player to do something totally nuts (but honest) as it helps me gather information on a player. For instance, in the original game, I was doggedly insistent that either Saki or Varsoon was scum and didn't let it go despite Varsoon doing an epic mindfuck on me. It resulted in a flawless victory (but for my getting vigged).

As for the Obscurity lynch gaining information, I don't see it.

TS- Why reinvent the wheel when the old as mud expression will accomplish the objective?

V- Bulba's probably paranoid because of the last game. Who is your scum pool?

[Titus]

Ugh this guy has been more newb than anything alignment indicative. I'd be fine with a PL but we've got 10 days left and I see zero reason to end it as of yet.

Agreed with Obs looking newbish. I cannot tell if newb town or newb scum. Policy lynching so early on day 1 is a mistake. Vigging Obs is better. We don't waste a lynch on little information when there's people we could learn a lot more from.

[Titus]

You do understand that if he's vigged we have to no lynch anyway right? So basically him getting vigged is equivalent to him getting lynched.

Since when does vigging require a no lynch?

[Titus]

In mylo, that's fine. The no lynch gives us a shitton more information in the back. Plus, a no lynch may not happen if a Doctor guesses right. The long term play is to vig Obscurity. He is trying, although not supporting his conclusions well. I will hammer if necessary bc I am not townreading him, I just don't think this is the way to go.

[Titus]

BBmolla, that is only true if Obs is town and no doctor heal and we have a vig and we mislynch today. That is a huge stack of assumptions.

Even then, by no lynching, scum are forced to kill someone they feel is a threat, thus giving clues to their id.

[Titus]

vla until December 24

Going to see my mom and Sister. I will try to squeeze in posting. This is an every game vla. If I miss one and you're in that game, feel free to notify the mod.

[Titus]

BBMolla, why are you so against this plan? Is it because you want to keep us stalled at Day 1? And give us no solid suspects for day 2?

If we lynch accurately, we are in a good position. In your opinion, Obs has to die anyway befire lylo. So why so stubborn?

[Titus]

Why is having known town autoloss, assuming arguendo that Obs is town? That's a guaranteed clear and both cn make their cases.

If you're convinced he's town, there is no need to lynch him at all.

If Obs is scum, my vig plan is optimal. We have information from Day 1 to use. If no one vigges Obs, scum cannot claim vig unless they also imply a roleblockeris in the setup. This is a chess match I want to win.

Gotta go catch my flight.

[Titus]

Ok, given the site issues, the fact no discussion is really going on, I will hammer after 24 hours unless someone objects. If I hammer then, night falls on my vla. I still would rather have my plan, but common sense lost.

[Titus]

Because the site was down, so no one had the ability to object, I will hammer in 24 hours from this post.

[Titus]

Let's see, you claim to believe Bulba as the doctor, but you don't unvote BB. Perhaps I wa wrong on BB. I can't see BB and Bulba engaging in such a risky scum theatre so early.

VOTE: Fu

[Titus]

Look at the link in the setup. There is no gf. Bard must be gambiting or BB is town. Scm withheld their attack or scum lied to make bbmolla look town.

Too many conspiracies. BBMolla is town. The pr claimers are likely town. I can see one scum pr fishing but it gains them nothing at this point.

So that leaves, TS, Cherry, SC and Fu two of whom must be scum.

I like SC and TS leaving Fu and Cherry as the scum.

[Titus]

There is no reason as to why you would hold your shot since you are both townread anyway.
I did forget to account for godfather blegh
Is a doc notified if they've been roleblocked?

P-edit: then we agree, good.

Docs are rarely notified if RBed on this site. I made that mistake in my first scum game. That helped in getting me lynched as I unintentionally PR fished.

[Titus]

Titus might be scum for counter pushing the Obscurity lynch, I could see that lynch being all town tbh.

Counterpushing?

[Titus]

Cherry and SC haven't even commented yet. They should be heard from, but I'm not sure how much we'll get from SC since the hydra is VLA until January.

Mod: Is that a mistake?

[Titus]

TS, I do agree that the shift was sudden. My shift to Fu scum came due to his reaction to BBMolla's clear.

I was strongly believing BBMolla as scum. I'd probably still believe that BBMolla is scum, but for the sheer stupidity and objective unlikelihood of that scenario as discussed above. It became obvious at the start of the day I was wrong. Fu's reactions in trying to get Bulba lynched despite the obvious PR reactions likely clearing him caused me to think Fu was scum. Yes, it is a sudden flip but it is one clearly warranted due to the game state.

[Titus]

I townread Fu due to his strong pushback that didn't seem to be OMGUS. He didn't just jump on the BBMolla wagon when convienent. He stood up to me and his attack on me (although I STILL don't understand it), he was thorough, consistent and showed follow through. His posts looked like he was attempting to scumhunt but that I misunderstood him. I know I am capable of misreading others {Hi Cherry} so I try to look and see if the player demonstrates logical thought with a coherent message.

However, Fu should be looking at the larger picture if he is town. Instead, now he's totally saying Bulba scum when a rational townplayer should be backing off and accepting the townblock for what it is. His death tunnel lacks a coherent explanation though.

[Titus]

You make it seem like you were very convinced he was town. Judging from your last post, you still think that he is town, but that he is taking the wrong course of action. This doesn't match up with your vote on him. I think you were just going with the flow.
The coaching is also not to my liking.

I was thinking he was town but taking the wrong course. I don't now because no rationale townie would persist after their target is logically cleared. I don't know how that was misinterpreted from my post.

[Titus]

What do you think is coaching about my post? There's literally nothing that says Fu do this. You likely think I am scum for some other reason, but the coaching is a line of hogwash.

[Titus]

That part is absolutely necessary.

A rational townplayer looks at the whole picture. Fu is not looking at the whole picture. Thus, Fu is not a rational townplayer. His tunnel lacks a coherent explanation.

I always suppose all players are rational. Thus, Fu is scum.

[Titus]

It was open 512. It wasn't the micro but an open queue. The mods just modified this for a micro setup.

By the way, our old record in 512 got broken. I subbed into the new record breaker (after the record was broken).

[Titus]

Me neither, TS. His whole post is a load of "Don't lynch me AtE". He only mentions obsurity one other time in all of his postings, including his intent to hammer.

[Titus]

Fu, your attempts to drag people down with you are transparent. Analysis in the alternative =/= not trusting Bulba.

TSB, there is a slight thing that would impact your analysis. You can be town and lying. However, since you seem to have excluded it yourself, I'll exclude it from mine. Ex: I (if I am an outed PR) will claim to have more shots than otherwise to draw an NK.

Can someone explain why the big deal over pools? Just looking at common sense. BB, TSB, and Bulba are all likely town. Fu is almost certainly scum given his reacitons and refusals to give reads. One scum in the rest seems like pretty good odds.

[Titus]

BB, Why does that post give you wierd feelings.

Fu, your reads are not clear at all. Do something like what BBMolla did even thoughh is is full of wrong. It starts the conversation.

BB, Cherry is more likely scum using hydra dissonance on me as convenient. If they want me lynched, Sakura talks. IF they want to keep me alive, Cherry talks. Pretty cut and dry dissonance.

[Titus]

Yeah, votes me based on wagon support.

TSB, if something makes you "feel bad" one of your premises is likely off. Tiershift is much more likely town than Cherry Dr. Pepper. You said Cherry Dr. Pepper hasn't done anything to change your read from his town day yesterday. Well Cherry hasn't done anything but prod dodge and spill dissonance today. You should be questioning that read on Cherry Dr. Pepper. Tiershift has been aggressive, putting forth questions and seeking answers.

I like

Town

BB --- Bulba --- TSB (all probs town)
Tiershift
SC
Cherry
Fu

Scum

[Titus]

Tiersfit's recent posts move him down a little. A) He is trying overly hard to link me with Fu and 2) Doing everything possible to avoid the Fu wagon.

[Titus]

Yeah well I am human Tier. I try but I got no sleep last night.

1)Attacking me to avoid Fu wagon
2) You know Fu is likely to join you out of preservation
3) It is much harder to lynch scum when scum don't bus
4) You have a hedge in your reads if Fu is scum
5) You are trying to associate me with Fu.

That looks like textbook scum to me, although your play aside from this has been pretty town. So I can't have you as my biggest townread outside the block.

[Titus]

V/LA till the 2nd

Ditto

Triple ditto.

The C9s fakeclaiming might work to a limited extent but I'd expect scum to actually want to put massclaim off as long as possible. The rolefishing would bother me but for the fact I don't see scum claiming so early so I'm assuming y'all are just trying to gamebreak. Scum are better off by trying to wait and claiming a role at the inopportune time. Scum know how many PRs there are but not which ones. There's literally no point in speculating if there is a roleblocker. If we want to know, we massclaim and force the scums hand. If not, we live with the ambiguity. I don't see a middle ground as anything else just helps the scum determine which PRs are in the game and their power.

The setup seems much similar to a JK++ game that I played awhile back. Almost won it.

[Titus]

@Tier, my bad. They are the probable thought processes behind you being scum. It was a bit stream of consciousness. I still like Cherry as scum more than you, but I was getting my thought processes down on paper.

[Titus]

BB --- Bulba --- TSB (all probs town)
SC Tiershift they are equal as townreads but if I had to pick SC.
Cherry
Fu

This should be obvious SC. You lost a lot of town read by not ligically thinking about where my reads are when I stated them.

Tiershift was top falls a little due to his interaction with the Fu wagon. SC has a town lean. Cherry's hydra dissonance lurk means prob scum. Fu is almos certain scum with Cherry.

I always answer a question but read the game SC.

[Titus]

Could everyone give their updated readlists btw?

Titus, BB, FuDuzn (if he confirms or corrects me) and mine are pretty recent, so won't need new ones here unless anyone feel the need to update it. For SC, CDP, TS and Bulba it would be nice to see some reads.

A lot of my reads are situational at this point. If X flips town or scum, then Y is cleared or more suspicious.

TOWN: Titus

Stuffed Crust -

I got a weird role PM where the mod confirms me as town, but only to me. :3

BBmolla -

Town. His play coming out of D1 was really strong and now we've got a cop confirm. Even if TSB is lying about cop (not likely), then BBM is still likely town.

Obscurity -

Mod Confirmed, only innocents are corpses, etc.

NULL-LEAN TOWN:

The Silver Bard -

Claim is very town, but play has been very straightforward, with interest in sussing out scum. Engages players, etc.

FuDuzn -

Claim is town, the way he handled his L-1 situation reflects town sensibilities in how he gives parsed out, informed reads and his ideas on the game even though others oppose those ideas. Wagon was pushed suspiciously fast for him to be scum.


NULL-LEAN SCUM:

Bulbazak -

Opportunistic claim as either alignment, questionable and tunnel-ish play throughout. Mac's scum-reading this.

Titus -

Awkward interaction with trying to draw the vig-kill on a now-confirmed townie, don't know how to feel about her play re-FuDuzn.

TierShift -

Too lynch-happy and sheepy for my liking. Bad hammer the other day. Goes with the flow of the game, doesn't stick out.

SCUM:

CherryDrP -

Same reasons as Tiershift, but also isn't active at all.

VOTE: CherryDrP for now. At the very least, the slot needs pressure. At most, rope.

-V

Mod:SC is voting CP.

[Titus]

Can you extend your VLA then? Your lurkiness and dissonance is a big reason I am scumreading you as it is a radical departure from the games I have played with you together and separate. If I am wrong on you being scum, that means I have a whole lot wrong, and I don't want or care to face that based on Dr. Pepper AtE.

When do the holidays end?

[Titus]

Please vla until then if you feel it is a reason for not posting. Otherwise, holidays or no holidays, I will hold you accountable.

[Titus]

SC's reads are wierd as shit.

Agreed. This whole I only judge the player not the claim is asisine. You cannot judge the player without judging the claim.

Wow, we're fucked if Bulba is town? What kinda shit is that?

[Titus]

Wow, we're fucked if Bulba is town? What kinda shit is that?

^Titus it's when you say shit like this that makes me think you're scum.

I'll talk like that regardless. Look at our BB game.

[Titus]

TS, I want to make sure I understand your question.

1) Assume Bulba is scum
2) What would bulbascum do
3) Is it plausible that bulba's actions are scum actions?

[Titus]

I'm the 1-shot doctor. I protected BBMolla.

Vote FuDuzn

Let's make this happen.

\o/

If you're 1-Shot Protective you should claim who you protected imo

But that's your call

VOTE: Fu

Supposing, arguendo, that Bulba is scum, this is a risk. Scum Bulba would know that either a) they nked or b) attacked Molla and he can claim to heal BBMolla to conftown him and thus get a town vote to do what he wanted because he is the doctor.

If Bulba is scum, he will want to put off massclaim as long as possible to prevent the town from noticing there are too many PRs.

As for the likelihood, my gut tells me he's not one to take risks. Of course, his play makes sense if they feared the relatively decent position we are in now.

Two Bulbascum scenarios,

If scum attacked BB,

Claim doc on Bulba, force town doc to choose between healing or outing. If doc picks healing, BB can use it against the real doc, if he selects ccing, then the town may never get heals. Either way, town tradeoff.

If scum NKed,

Same position as above.


Overall, I can't say this is Bulbascum, there are advantages if he's scum but inconsistencies (Bulba doesn't gambit as scum but he isn't as likely to claim as town)

Blah. I think Bulba's risk averse though.


The likelihood of this depends on how

[Titus]

How you read Bulba's meta. I hate meta, but looking at the claim alone, that's what it boils down to

[Titus]

Predicting who will be lynched is a weak point as it really is unpredictable unless a cop has a guilty. It boils down to what Bulba thinks though and not reality. I would say Bulbascum is smart enough to look at this as afaction game. If he thinks he is going down, then PR claiming makes sense. It gains his team positioning for very minimial cost. There is evidence for that given how quick he votes Fu.

If bulbascum doesn't feel like he's getting lynched, then this suggests a more methodical plan on scum to draw out the PRs. This likely points to the scums losing their nk. You'd definitely look for an analytical player as Bulba's partner if this was accurate.

[Titus]

Tiershift, do you feel as if Bulba thought he was prime lynchbait material?

[Titus]

Tier, I looked through Bulba's ISO. Does he tunnel more as town or scum?

[Titus]

Got ninjaed.

Second part fmpov is either you, SC or Cherry. I would lean more towards SC due to the fact only one head is postingI think and he can blame everything else on the other head.

Tiershift, this conversation has weakened my read on Bulba a fair amount. I didn't really see any reason for Bulba to fakeclaim. I really wanted three conftowns as it puts us in excellent position. Given no cc, that is the logical thing to do but I see your point and it is valid.


Tier, I don't know your histoey with Bulba and I have never seen Bulba tunnel to my recollection.

[Titus]

Agree. I would like as many eyes as possible to look our analysis.

[Titus]

Unnatural? Why? I always like my work to be checked. I tend to get pissy when it isn't.

[Titus]

So we're in agreement then that Bulba scum requires Bulba to be paranoid he will be lynched today or tomorrow?

[Titus]

Tier, I looked through Bulba's ISO. Does he tunnel more as town or scum?

I have one game with Bulba, and you were in it. The Kingsmaker 2 Marathon game. Here Bulba tunneled me all day 1 until he got executed and were revealed as town. Maybe not the best game to compare it to, but him tunneling is at least not a scumtell on him for me.

I also find it a tad suspicious that you forgot about this.

Point of clarification, you were revealed as town or Bulba was or both?

[Titus]

So we're in agreement then that Bulba scum requires Bulba to be paranoid he will be lynched today or tomorrow?

Huh? Are you asking if we should lynch him today or tomorrow? I will 100% not lynch him today without a counterclaim or a roleblock claim. And I can't see why I would lynch him tomorrow without a counterclaim.

Nooooo...

I'm saying that if Bulba is scum, it requires Bulba to be afraid of being lynched today or tomorrow. That's what I'm seeing the consensus as anyway.

[Titus]

Tier, I looked through Bulba's ISO. Does he tunnel more as town or scum?

I have one game with Bulba, and you were in it. The Kingsmaker 2 Marathon game. Here Bulba tunneled me all day 1 until he got executed and were revealed as town. Maybe not the best game to compare it to, but him tunneling is at least not a scumtell on him for me.

I also find it a tad suspicious that you forgot about this.

Point of clarification, you were revealed as town or Bulba was or both?

We both were. And you were scum

Ok so you were referring to Zach's games and not PokerFace's. Got it.

[Titus]

To be fair, you deserved that tunnel TSB. Can't say there was anything wrong with it. Opening up self-voting in a kingmaker just gives scum a hell of a lot of flexibility.

[Titus]

I had you pegged as hero from the start though. If I was in control, we would have NKed you night 1.

[Titus]

Point taken. I had you pegged solely bc I knew you couldn't be scum but I can see how some ppl might have come to that conclusion now. It drove me crazy how anyone was townreading you.

Anyway, I'm done with that game. The point is made. Bulba tunnels as town. So it's not a scum tell.

[Titus]

Titus, I think we need to talk, because I'm tired of internally waffling on you.

-V

Bring mac to the party. He doesn't talk enough and I think everyone could use the ability to see what Mac is thinking as well.

TS, I don't like you pushing the RB to claim. If a 1 shot RB was saving their shot, there's every reason for them not to claim. Basically, a one shot RBer who has used his shot, there's no reason for him to withhold. If the RBer still has shots left then there's every reason to withhold.

[Titus]

Perhaps it would have been even better, frame the player roleblocked (if town) and then, after pushing a mislynch, be conftown.

I'm not sure how this would work.

[Titus]

If Bulba was "wrecked" for not nightkilling as you suggest BB, then a preemptive doctor claim makes sense. Might as well try to PR fish.

[Titus]

nonononononono

I'm saying if he DID no kill and he WAS roleblocked (we'd know by now so that isn't the case, someone would have claimed it) then he'd get screwed

I can see this being the likely scenario. In a long shot I can see the rber withholding if they thought they could lynch BB anyway but this would require a full rber in the last slot. But yes, a 1 shot rber would claim.

[Titus]

I'm saying the plan could go haywire. What if Bulba was blocked by the roleblocker? Bam, wrecked for not even nightkilling anyway.

He's taking a risk, yes.

Titus I don't understand your last posts. Who could think they could lynch BB.
I'm not pushing the RB to claim if he has withheld his shot. Me and BB were talking about the case that the RB had already used his shot N1.

Ok, I thought you were generally fishing for any rb.

My point was a full RBer might feel no need to claim if they felt Bulba was going to be lynched anyway. I was getting a little suspicious of your push for a claim in that regard but apparently you were just looking for one shot rbers.

[Titus]

Ok I get it now. Stuff you talk about is reaally far-fetched, though.
Could you please not use BB to refer to bulba?

That was an error. I meant bulba via context but typed it wrong.

I do tend to talk about far fetched things. When you eliminate the impossible, whatever's left must be true no matter how improbable. So I have to determine what's possible/impssible and the only way to do that is to talk about far fetched things.

[Titus]

Bulba, I think that's a sarcastic tone, not apologetic.

Like "Oh, I'm sorry for suspecting you your royal highness".

I don't care for the sarcastic tone either, but I wouldn't call it apologetic because it has the word "Sorry" in it.

[Titus]

Ok, Tiershift, why were you beginning to suspect Fu may have been town? The mod locked the thread before I could ask you that question. All I saw was a bunch of AtE, everyone's scummy but me type drivel.

[Titus]

Titus, anything to declare?

I'm not sure what this question gets at. I was following up on Fu's statements right before the hammer, saying that he suspected Fu might not have been town.

[Titus]

**Tier's statements

[Titus]

**God that Fu might not have been scum. God damnit.

[Titus]

Why would scum have to use their strongman day 1? Furthermore, if SB is lying, he could have been hiding being a full cop. I don't really see the rush to mass claim. I will reflect on this tonight in real life.

[Titus]

So...
Cherry: Scum-Pushing Titus, Scumreading Tier.
Titus: Scum-Pushing Cherry, Weird Interaction/Scumreading Tier.
Tier: Scum-Pushing Titus, Scum-reading Cherry.

Dunno how much this helps.

Ok, these are theories which are off. I still like Cherry scum but I am going to need to reread because Fu flipped town. That was unexpected. I do not know why you would expect the players, other than Tier, in your lynchpool, to not reanalyze since the general consensus was that Fu was town.

Regarding the setup spec, if SC is a full roleblocker and bulba is a one shot doc and TSB is a one shot cop...

Supposing SC's claim is true, then there are three possibilities

1) Bulba is misleading us with the talk of a strongman. He tried to kill n1 and failed due to being blocked.

2) We have a situation where the scum nked to try and out the PRs and hoped the doc would heal their own and claim it.

3) Bulba did not try to kill n1, but his scum partner tried to attack BBMolla and ran into a real doctor (who may be full bc I would expect a cc otherwise).

4) Bulba fake claimed doctor, real doc did not cc. Bulba is town. Scums tried to shoot someone and failed.


Supposing Bulba is telling the truth, we have DC?? as the setup at the moment.

1) Scum nk intending to cause chaos and paranoia.

2) Stuffed Crust is scum. To get a full doctor to heal would require RR DDD, which is more letters than the setup allows for and says nothing of TSB's claim.

3) SC is fakeclaiming certain that Bulba is scum and another one shot doc is present. He is wrong.

4) Same thing as three but SC is right.


My gut says Bulba scum, because of his opening suggesting TSB scum. It is as if he knew more letters would be outed today and no room would exist for his D. I need to reread supposing Fu town and these scenarios.

For pete's sake if either of you are fake claiming, speak within 24 hours or I will call renouncin a scum claim.

If anyone sees a missing scenario that is theoretically possible, let me know. I will review later today.

[Titus]

Consensus was that Fu was not town. Grrr.

[Titus]

Ok your scenario has DCRR as the scenario. Why would scum, with an rb and strongman, not strongarm? If DCRR is the setup, scum rb w strongman should be the scum setup. With all four PRs, they should likely expect a doc and/or rb to act n1 given full cop and full vig is unlikely.

I like th fact you saw something I missed, I just find it unlikely.

[Titus]

I want to review the statements in detail before starting the vote path. Although I like Bulba CDP, I want to be sure.

[Titus]

Sure tell me when you're ready. I'm gonna do a little reviewing of my own, too.

I am phone posting from work. My analysis will likely be up tonight.

[Titus]

I'm going to list the possibilities and then sort them by likely order, after analysis and remove the longshots.

Format... #) Setup - Description. Likelihood: [Few words] How that was reached.

1) CDRR- Both Bulba and SC are telling the truth. Scums NKed Day 1. Strongman would have resulted in a death, and so would have a regular attack unless bulba did it. All the letters are occupied in this scenario. Likelihood: theoretically possible. I've got many issues with this. First, scum would likely be aware of the existence of a hell of a lot of town power. The last thing I'd expect here is an NK (which is the only reason this setup is even theoretically possible).

2) CRRT - Bulba is misleading us with the talk of a strongman. He tried to kill n1 and failed due to being blocked. Likelihood: Very likely. He already knows who scum tried to kill in this version. He can say anyone he wants in an attempt to gain a buddy, which would be crucial for going into lylo. He fishes like hell for the roleblocker knowing that his time is cut short to leave his buddy in a better position.

3) CRRT2 - We have a situation where the scum nked to try and out the PRs and hoped the doc would heal their own and claim it. Likelihood: Not very likely. This scenario has a lot in common with scenario 1. It's more plausible because there are more possible VTs. Plus, the scums have no strongman in this setup. Yet, I just cannot see the scums NKing here.

4) CRRD1 - Bulba did not try to kill n1, but his scum partner tried to attack BBMolla and ran into a real doctor (who may be full bc I would expect a cc otherwise). Likelihood: Not unlikely, but not likely either. This setup requires Bulba being the roleblocker. Bulba would roleblock n1 fishing for a PR. His buddy tried to kill BBMolla.

5) CRRD2- Bulba fake claimed doctor, real doc did not cc. Bulba is town. Scums tried to shoot someone and failed. Likelihood: Damn Near Impossible, just covering bases. First, why wouldn't a one shot claim yesterday? If the one shot CCs, SC could remain hidden and we'd have a bulbascum lynch by now. No further time will be wasted on this theory unless required.

6) CDTT- Scum nk intending to cause chaos and paranoia, or deliberately do not strongman on night 1. Likelihood: Meh. First this requires the scums deliberately withhold one of their strongest weapons. There is no clear motivation for doing so. I could see an outside shot of scums not using the strongman out of fear that the PRs might not use their features. This would also require crafty, maybe even overconfident scumteam. Considering Varsoon is very manipulative as scum, he fits the profile here. I won't rule it out but it requires a hell of a lot of assumptions. This has quite a bit similar with Scenario 1 but scums aren't as desperate for an NK.

7) CDTT- Stuffed Crust is scum. To get a full doctor to heal would require RR DDD, which is more letters than the setup allows for and says nothing of TSB's claim. Derp: Upon analysis, this bullet is the same as 6.

8) CDTT - SC is fakeclaiming certain that Bulba is scum and another one shot doc is present. He is wrong. Likelihood: Remote to impossible. Fakeclaiming doesn't seem to be a tool in Varsoon's repertoire. Then again, he's such a charismatic player, he wouldn't need it.

9) CDDD - Same thing as three but SC is right. Likelihood: What the holy hell no! It's got all the drawbacks of 8, with a setup that's got a ridiculously low theoretical possibility plus no one claiming to verify. No. Not wasting any more time here.

10) CTTT - Both Bulba and SC start lying their asses off about being PRs. They figure one would get busted and the other would sail. Likelihood: Unlikely. First, this requires the scum to just set out to bus at the start of day 2. Second, it requires a no kill as town has no healing power in the game, barring a claim from Cherry that she's the actual doctor. Too risky, little reward and the facts aren't consistent with this theory. Paranoia makes me throw this out there though.


So that leaves me with CRRT and CDTT, so let's look at the playstyles.

Bulba has been dramatic and fishing for claims while SC has been calm collected and rational. Bulba's play fits into CRRT. I cannot see SC being so collected if his plans were failing. Also, the claim here doesn't read like scum being backed into a corner given the next to no pressure. It reads like town really wanting Bulba lynched.

Playstyle: SC town, Bulba scum.



Moving onto Nightkills.

N1, we cannot be 100% sure what happened. If Bulba was blocked, then any one of us could have been the target. If SC is scum, the Molla was the n1 target. Based on that, we're only going to get information if we look at who Molla was FoSing. Even then, whatever we get is wifomy.

Looking at night 1, Bulbascum team would have a good reason to shoot BBMolla. BBMolla thought they were scum and a good portion of the game was town. Afterwards, the other player could bus Bulba. Thus, Bulba's fake claim makes sense.

I can't see SC shooting BB here. SC was on the solid town read list along with every other player currently in the game. SCScum would be in a strong position with BB in the game.

Looking at night 2, points more towards SC and myself being scum, but really could be anyone given that BBMolla was conftown at that point. BB's last readslist on #607 has Tiershift as town and scum, but later posts in his ISO clarify that he meant me there. Knowing that Fu was town and I am town, I can't see anyone shooting BBMolla here other than for the fact he's conftown because his reads were just as messed up as any of us. The more logical play would be to shoot a PR unless the plan was somehow to discredit the PRs. Discrediting the PRs points to both SC and Bulba as possible scum. N2 is null.

Nightkills: Weak favoring Bulba scum. It's a load of wifom in that category, but still I want to look at everything given lylo.


Ok. Now that I have that information, who is pushing the agenda of possible scum here aside from Bulba/SC?

Cherry - I could see them as partners with either party, but common sense says Bulba is the more likely partner. Cherry has a very preservationist post about lynching Bulba before lynching her. That fits with theory that Bulba is the goon sent for the kill and Cherry is the roleblocker, which is scenario 1. Cherry being scum with SC is possible playing a game where she looks good for not pushing Bulba, who is town under this theory, buddies him and makes the game much easier for an SC/Cherry scum team. Bussing early looks good, especially in known MYLO when votes aren't likely to come out. I've always hated Cherry's dissonance.

Tiershift - I don't like Tiershift as anyone's buddy here. I've had my issues with Tiershift in the past this game, but the thought process is just to similar as to how to approach the stage of the game.

TSB - Town. I cannot come up with a remotely plausible scenario where TSB is scum. Scum would have to be so far against their wincon, the possibility is not even worth discussing.

[Titus]

have been suspecting Bulba for awhile, which is why he was always low on my reads-lists.
I feel like Cherry is the lowest common denominator in either of the DCBB or BBCT scenarios. I also really didn't like that Cherry tried to throw suspicion onto me, but I guess that's the fear of having a townblock form from the claimed PRs.
VOTE: CherryDP

Voting in mylo? Why? Are you that confident that the scums are just going to kill TSB AND that no discussion can further thinking on the scum team?

[Titus]

Truth be told tho, It is true that i started with a mindset of not intending to sign posts because i thought it'd be more fun that way, however DP rarely appears and he's scumreading Titus despite what i told him in our hydra QT. Not signing posts is fun, but hydra dissoance isn't fun for the others in the game hence why I started signing mine regardless. I don't really like hydra dissonance myself nor being accused for it, and it is quite likely that if town loses this game just because DP and I kept having different reads then I won't hydra again ever. Being accused of doing something scummy is fine, but being pushed for something that isn't even my fault isn't, and I can now see why most players in here hate hydras now.

Do that with what you will, if that loses town the game then so be it, i'm tired of explaining what i've already explained many times over.

On the other hand at least Silver Bard has a reason to scumread me, and SC is just survivalistic at this point considering he wants to 1v1 with me rather than with Bulba and people would most likely lynch the unclaimed player than the claimed PR,

it's obvious he thinks he and bulba are town. Why again are we not lynching SC.

PEd. it needs 2 town votes on town during mylo to lose the game just saying.

The bolded is a scumslip. The entire time Sakura makes an argument explaining the motivations of possible scum SC. Yet, here Sakura closes with "it's obvious he thinks he and bulba are town." Scum SC wouldn't think he was town. Thus, this is a slip.

VOTE: CherryDrPepper

[Titus]

Now this is the part where

town

scum

loses if you both are town.

However i still think SC is scum so i think we're fine anyway.

~Sakura Hana

Fixed it for you. I really doubt there will be a quickhammer as I'm 99.9% certain you are scum.

You totally ignored my claim that you slipped and instead just made a baseless plea to SC to please stop looking at me and look at someone else. The paranoid side of my brain says you're trying to hide the fact SC is your partner but it seems more logical to try and get SC to block someone other than Bulba so you have a chance, or at least claim that so Bulba can NK and get a mislynch.

[Titus]

Last ditch shot. If SC blocks Bulba, then your scumteam is boned. The scumteam cannot get a kill and Bulba's lynched. So you need to plant suggestions to SC that Bulba isn't scum despite what should be damning evidence to him.

[Titus]

Actually nevermind, if SC is town then he can still save it for town but...

Considering there would still be ANOTHER scum aside from Bulba running around he'd have to think to either block Bulba (unlikely bulba submits the kill) or Bulba's partner which it's obvious he's lost as to who it might be.

So tell me SC assume i flip town if you're town who would you roleblock tonight to save it for town.

~Sakura Hana

This is the sentence where you practically beg SC not to block Bulba. Period. Look at the context surrounding this, Bulba won't submit the kill. SC is lost as to who the other teammate of Bulba is (newsflash he's not, slim chance of a bus but that's looking less likely). You're begging him to revisit his scumteam analysis. I cannot see why he would though as I agree that you're scum in either scenario. He might as well bus you and take the credit since its apparent you are most likely scum.

Don't call me out on a misrep when it's obviously not a misrep.

[Titus]

I don't see why SC is picking you to 1 v 1 with either. The setup doesn't say you are a 1 v 1 with SC. Rather, Bulba/SC is a high likelihood of one v one and the group seems to be at a consensus that you are the partner.

[Titus]

Clarification: I don't think SC and CDP are a 1 v 1.

[Titus]

No, it's either you die or I'm no lynching. I don't feel confident enough in anyone else being scum. The more this continues the more I feel you are scum, but I'm not scumreading SC at the moment. Given the fact TSB is damn near conftown, I can't see any reason to hold off voting you even though it is mylo.

What the hell is "wrt"? I don't get that entire line.

Oh what, I expect you to claim scum. Of course not. You're just saying "think about all the shiny alternatives", when there are no shiny alternatives. It's a last ditch attempt with lots of AtE.

I'm not misrepping at all. You slipped. You die.

[Titus]

You could you know do that.

Assuming you flip town and SC blocks the right person, I'd probably lynch them. However, if SC claims he blocked someone who should in no way be scum, I'd reassess. Even if he blocked someone I'd expect, I wouldn't jump on it immediately being lylo and all.

If you flip town, SC fails to block the right person and scum kill, we're boned so I don't feel the need to discuss that scenario. The only one I could see where we wouldn't be boned is if the scums no killed. At that point, I'd reassess everything as I see no rational method for the scums to NK.

So in that rare scenario, I'd probably look at Tiershift again. I just don't see Tier being scum. If he is scum, he's giving one hell of a performance.

[Titus]

Oh wait forgot the roleblocker can't submit kill part

SC state target and I will vote cherry

Look at your mod question TS, then look at this again. Your scenario doesn't happen as a mafia rb cannot submit the kill.

If you had mafia rb block the town rber, the town rber block the killer and the killer try to kill, natural order resolution has the town rb getting blocked and the kill going through.

[Titus]

Tiershift, see post 2 for absolute confirmation about the rber and the kill. I was phone posting before so it was difficult to highlight that. I am wanting to see your elaboration. I'd move over to vote Bulba but I want to see Tier's analysis first. I really like Bulba/CDP due to CDP's overdefense of Bulba and SC likely being town. SC could be pulling another mindfuck on me so that's another reason to wait until I am not under time constraints. (I have a meeting in one hour fifteen minutes). So count this as intent to vote Bulba for now.

CDP, we'll need to talk more about that prior game afterwards. I didn't see myself as buddying Varsoon but rather highlighting one of Varsoon/Saki had to be scum. I thought Varsoon was scum and then he did a mindfuck on me.

[Titus]

Ugh my meeting got moved for the second time today. I will not have time to review this tonight. Even if I did, no review would change my mind.

VOTE: Bulbazak

#rekt

[Titus]

I basically was laying the groundwork for a full roleblocker claim. I would have done that, being the more expendable one and all, but I already laid the groundwork I was a VT.

Care to share our chat V?

Glad to be scum with you by the way.

I'll bbl.

[Titus]

Oh SH, normally I'm more paranoid of people who read me as town cuz meta. That was probably the tip off to DP, but he was being the quiet head, so I never had to answer. If DP was in control, the gambit would have been much harder to pull off.

[Titus]

I felt a fake claim was an option but not required. I was surprised SC claimed when he did. Personally, I figured he'd wait until L minus one.

Also, I felt the strongman missassumption was helpful. Everyone supposes a strongarm gets used day 1. I cannot see why. I wanted to keep it until it became necessary or useless. As town, I would one shot cop n1 but hold off until much later with the others.

[Titus]

Well, you can do it now. I'd love to learn why you thought I was so scummy. My scum play is improving, but I still have a lot to learn.

[Titus]

Fu, if you were scumreading me for tunnelling, then you'll lynch me damn near every game LOL. I've been trying to cut back on tunnelling. This time it worked though bc my target was already perceived as scummy.

I really like the C9 and JK setups as scum. They allow for much more strategizing than purely closed or open setups.

[Titus]

/pre-in.

I am ready to kick ass again.

Tier, being cooperative is good as either alignment. I tend to foster overcooperatoveness as scum.