Micro 621: Mafia in Rarefaction (Game Over)

xyzzy · Post Post #5 (isolation #0) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:01 am

VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

xyzzy · Post Post #14 (isolation #1) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:53 am

at that point there were two players who had voted without saying anything else; picking me as the one to focus on is a bit arbitrary.

xyzzy · Post Post #44 (isolation #2) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:12 am

Infinity, I feel like you're being super reachy; trying to analyze RVS behavior helps, but trying to draw actual conclusions seems reductive. plus, relatively speaking, I feel like RachMarie has contributed a higher then average amount so far.

also, in post 15 you misunderstood what I meant; at that point, the only votes were TNE, RachMarie and me, and 2 out of the 3 of us had said nothing about our votes, so picking me as the person to focus on for doing that feels arbitrary.

also: I was born in Fort Worth but have no desire to ever go back there. feel free to draw your own conclusions about what that means.

xyzzy · Post Post #59 (isolation #3) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:07 am

In post 56, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 14, xyzzy wrote:at that point there were two players who had voted without saying anything else; picking me as the one to focus on is a bit arbitrary.
I didn't like this reaction to being voted either.
Immediately trying to deflect attention.

VOTE: xyzzy

it was a reaction to the manner in which the vote took place; the whole "second person to vote without saying something is scummy" still makes absolutely no sense to me. I don't care if someone votes for me on page 1; that happens to nearly everyone most games, so deflecting attention from it would be absolutely pointless.

xyzzy · Post Post #61 (isolation #4) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:49 am

I suppose not, no.

xyzzy · Post Post #70 (isolation #5) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:11 am

In post 69, drmyshottyizsik wrote:I think we are reading way into rvs actions and not rvs reactions

I agree with this.

I tend to try not to draw conclusions this early in day 1 (or, for that matter, for most of day 1), and I tend to question those who draw conclusions this early a lot; speaking in absolutes this early doesn't seem productive to me.

I feel good about TNE and RachMarie so far.

also, here's another fun, irrelevant bit of trivia since shotty brought it up: in IRC mafia, I initially used the username xyzzy, but quickly switched to [zz] because 1)I was 15 and brackets were cool and 2)it kept people from tab-completing to "Xyl" when typing my name.

xyzzy · Post Post #92 (isolation #6) » Tue Jun 28, 2016 3:15 am

yeah the Kappy "wagon" is nonexistent and saying otherwise feels disingenuous

xyzzy · Post Post #93 (isolation #7) » Tue Jun 28, 2016 3:18 am

also I wouldn't really call it defensive to say "I don't think the reasoning behind this vote is logically consistent". I'm gonna point out illogical things when I see 'em.

xyzzy · Post Post #144 (isolation #8) » Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:56 am

sorry for not posting for about 2 days, y'all; I've had a weirdly busy couple days for a couple reasons and haven't really had time to write much yet.

In post 96, Infinity 324 wrote:xy, if you really thought my argument was stupid, why did you say "kinda arbitrary" instead of "completely arbitrary"? Why did you even care that I voted you for something you thought was a shit reason?

Also I think we found the second scum (shotty).

1)because "a bit arbitrary" rolls off the tongue better? I don't know, sometimes people over- or underexaggerate. what a weird nitpick.
2)because I felt like the argument you were making was disingenuous.

In post 112, thenewearth wrote:Also to clarify for MM and rach

LAMIST = "HEY GUYS LOOK WHAT I'M DOING I'M BEING TOWN PLZ NO LYNCH"

Scum do that shit.

You can't do it as town because you're town to begin with.

idk I think it's very possible to panic and overcompensate as town. it's easier to do in lylo situations, but it can happen at any time.

In post 114, RedCoyote wrote:
Infinity 99 wrote:TNE seems pretty town to me atm.
I wouldn't get too comfortable with her if she's sitting there saying there's scum between you and xyzzy unless you are pretty confident that xyzzy is scum. If I was in your shoes, I'd have to think on that one long and hard.

are you saying you think it's a bad idea to believe someone is town if that person believes you might be scum? because that seems like some really bad advice.

In post 124, Infinity 324 wrote:Reread the tread (yup, I'm a nerd like that)

In post 59, xyzzy wrote:I don't care if someone votes for me on page 1; that happens to nearly everyone most games, so deflecting attention from it would be absolutely pointless.
If you don't care if someone votes you, what was the point of 14?

this is mostly reiterating what I said earlier in this post, but not treating a very early vote as something extremely serious =/= questioning the logic behind a very early vote.

In post 133, RedCoyote wrote:Oh, wow. I just realized that Kappy is V/LA until the 5th. I had no idea.
Mod
, I take it Kappy is staying in the game? I generally pay no mind to V/LA's because I assume either they are for 3 or 4 days or the slot gets replaced.

UNVOTE: Kappy

So, great, that roleslot basically gets a free pass D1 if he stays in the game. In the mean time, I'm going to VOTE: Infinity 324. This is a more productive use of my vote. LAMIST has been brought up, but, additionally, Infinity strikes me as highly... I don't know... removed from the game? I don't mean literally in that he's not around, he very much is, but he comes across as though he's observing or commentating on the game more than he does playing it, if that makes sense. I can go back through his posts and expand on this if someone is interested, but I hope I can get a wagon going here.

I agree with your comments on how Infinity is approaching this game. it feels off and distant.

after some thought I think I'm gonna VOTE: Infinity.

xyzzy · Post Post #146 (isolation #9) » Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:46 am

In post 145, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 144, xyzzy wrote:
In post 96, Infinity 324 wrote:xy, if you really thought my argument was stupid, why did you say "kinda arbitrary" instead of "completely arbitrary"? Why did you even care that I voted you for something you thought was a shit reason?

Also I think we found the second scum (shotty).
1)because "a bit arbitrary" rolls off the tongue better? I don't know, sometimes people over- or underexaggerate. what a weird nitpick.
2)because I felt like the argument you were making was disingenuous.
If you thought it was disingenuous, why didn't you say that before?

In post 112, thenewearth wrote:Also to clarify for MM and rach

LAMIST = "HEY GUYS LOOK WHAT I'M DOING I'M BEING TOWN PLZ NO LYNCH"

Scum do that shit.

You can't do it as town because you're town to begin with.
idk I think it's very possible to panic and overcompensate as town. it's easier to do in lylo situations, but it can happen at any time.
Is general comment or is it what you think I'm doing? Cause I definitely am not panicking.

I agree with your comments on how Infinity is approaching this game. it feels off and distant.

after some thought I think I'm gonna VOTE: Infinity.
^^ this is scum

1)I did? I mean, I didn't use the word "disingenuous" until that post, but I feel like I made that pretty clear?
2)nah I just meant it as a general comment.
3)I disagree, but alright.

xyzzy · Post Post #150 (isolation #10) » Thu Jun 30, 2016 3:02 pm

I'm not defending myself there because there's nothing inherently bad about voting for someone because they made an RVS vote without saying something. I'm simply pointing out that if two players do the exact same thing, saying that one of them is scummy but not saying anything about the other is questionable.

xyzzy · Post Post #153 (isolation #11) » Thu Jun 30, 2016 4:19 pm

In post 151, Infinity 324 wrote:But I would expect a vote from town there because if I did something at least slightly questionable I should be scummier than your RVS target, right?

I tend to be slow to change my vote regardless of the circumstances.

xyzzy · Post Post #178 (isolation #12) » Sat Jul 02, 2016 3:22 am

as in how confident am I when playing as scum? well, the last time I played as scum was... probably about 8 years ago, so not very confident.

xyzzy · Post Post #180 (isolation #13) » Sat Jul 02, 2016 6:45 am

In post 70, xyzzy wrote:I feel good about TNE and RachMarie so far.

xyzzy · Post Post #186 (isolation #14) » Sat Jul 02, 2016 9:52 am

In post 184, Infinity 324 wrote:Gut, play fits with unconfident scum, defending themselves way more than scum hunting, some not-so-relevant questions in 144 which scum love to ask.

And I just noticed this:

@xy:
In 92 you said calling the votes on kappy a "wagon" was disingenuous, but rach was the only one doing that, and you apparently had and still have a town read on rach despite that. Did rach saying that affect your read on her?

when I was reading, I thought that more than one person described the votes on kappy as a wagon; that was me misreading.

based on the exchange in 181/185, I'm leaning toward Shadow_step being scum.

re:144, are you referring to what I said to RedCoyote?

xyzzy · Post Post #237 (isolation #15) » Wed Jul 06, 2016 10:10 am

I'll get out the most important part of this post first, so no one misses it: I'm the innocent child. obviously there's lots of incentive for scum to nightkill me now, but hopefully something more productive than killing me can be done day 1.

In post 189, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 186, xyzzy wrote:based on the exchange in 181/185, I'm leaning toward Shadow_step being scum.

Oh yeah?
Vote me then, won't you ?

this argument is a bad one because it's possible for me to think more than one person is scummy, and for me to prioritize voting for one of those people over the other. me not voting for you just means that I don't think you're absolutely the scummiest person at the moment.

In post 200, Infinity 324 wrote:You misread my post

I said I would expect town xy to react emotionally. He didn't.

I don't have strong outward emotional reactions to a lot of things, that's true; that's a matter of my personality, not of my role.

In post 216, RachMarie wrote:I am really not seeing a scum infin here. Granted I do not have the tons of games I have with some of the other players, but he is too actively involved in the game and it would be too ballsy to play leader as scum on d 1.

I don't agree at all that Infinity's actions in this game would be ballsy as scum.

Not_Mafia's 221 vote is scummy; putting someone at L-1 and then saying an hour later that you've just decided your vote is a serious one isn't great.

also, this isn't relevant to the game, but it's relevant to me:

xyzzy · Post Post #330 (isolation #16) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 8:51 am

In post 97, thenewearth wrote:
In post 92, xyzzy wrote:yeah the Kappy "wagon" is nonexistent and saying otherwise feels disingenuous
I find your echo sabre disturbing

UNVOTE:
VOTE: xyzzy

Infinite vs. Xyzzy is scum vs. town.

Vote on or the other plz.

Lets not dwell in these RVS votes.

this post makes me think that if TNE is scum, then Infinity is town; earlier I felt like TNE was town, so I need some time to think about the current wagon before I make up my mind regarding her. I feel better about Shadow_step than I did earlier, but I don't feel super terrific about him yet, though his place on the TNE wagon feels relatively good.

xyzzy · Post Post #364 (isolation #17) » Sun Jul 10, 2016 4:33 pm

while I disagree pretty strongly with the argument that not putting someone you think is scummy at L-1 is scummy, I'm not a fan of Fire Assassin's vote just now; I feel like he's just trying to divert votes to someone other than himself.

VOTE: Fire Assassin

xyzzy · Post Post #378 (isolation #18) » Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:17 am

I'm really surprised I'm not dead? like, I guess this could be some weird scum gambit, but I can't think of any scenarios where that could reliably work well for scum; any hypothetical scenario where this plays out well for scum relies on things they have only limited control over going exactly the way they need them to.

the ideal scenario mathematically for scum is that I'm lynched today and the game goes into rarefaction without its innocent child, which (assuming completely random lynches) has an 8/9 chance of a town win; if instead a townie is lynches today, it goes into rarefaction with random lynches giving scum a 5/6 chance of winning; if instead scum is lynched today, then their choices are 1)kill me on either night 2 or 3, giving them an 8/15 chance of winning based on random lynches, or 2)don't night kill me, giving them a 2/5 chance of winning based on random lynches. so I guess they're banking on a lynch of me happening today, but I don't think there's any logical reason to lynch me unless there's a counter claim today, because if I were lying, then the town would immediately know that as soon as rarefaction starts, which would be really bad for me, and there's not even a good reason for a counter claim from scum today.

basically, the only way I see me not being dead working out is if the town acts in a specifically illogical manner. there's a ton of hypothetical scenarios here, and I'm having trouble keeping track of all of them, but I really can't think of any where just killing me last night wouldn't have been more efficient, which is... really confusing!

xyzzy · Post Post #380 (isolation #19) » Thu Jul 14, 2016 11:47 am

I have some thoughts regarding Not_Mafia's vote, but I'd like to hear what he has to say about it first.

xyzzy · Post Post #395 (isolation #20) » Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:49 am

I think I'm okay with either a Fire Assassin lynch or a Not_Mafia lynch; shaddowez's 390 feels pretty town to me, and I like the logic used there, and I was fine with a Fire Assassin lynch yesterday, obviously; Not_Mafia's vote in 391 just isn't very good at all. so depending on how the day goes I'm fine with either one, but for now I'll

VOTE: Fire Assassin

xyzzy · Post Post #429 (isolation #21) » Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:07 am

I think based on the relatively small response to Fire Assassin being at L-1, if Fire Assassin is town, at least one of shaddowez or Not_Mafia is scum.

xyzzy · Post Post #436 (isolation #22) » Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:16 pm

In post 430, shaddowez wrote:
xyzzy wrote:I think based on the relatively small response to Fire Assassin being at L-1, if Fire Assassin is town, at least one of shaddowez or Not_Mafia is scum.
And if FA is scum? While this isn't a great setup to bus in, are you saying that it's completely out of the question, and it's only somebody not on the wagon as their partner? Also, what does the response have to do with the rest of your statement?

I'm saying that I think it's likely at least one of the scum would be moving in the direction of thinking Fire Assassin is scum if he's town and there's no scum on the wagon, but I don't think it's likely that they'd want to both be on it, so if one of them is already on it, I don't think it's as likely that the other one would jump on. basically, the response I'm referring to is the lack of further movement in that wagon.

I'm really not a big fan of that vote by Fire Assassin at all; it feels reactionary and easy.

xyzzy · Post Post #455 (isolation #23) » Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:01 pm

that's an absurd threat to make. in what scenario could that possibly benefit the town? it is objectively beneficial for the town if we lynch scum rather than going into rarefaction. the only reason to self hammer is that you want to harm the town.

xyzzy · Post Post #508 (isolation #24) » Wed Jul 20, 2016 5:57 pm

Fire Assassin, you're literally openly trying to make the scum win at this point; why are you still alive?

xyzzy · Post Post #538 (isolation #25) » Sat Jul 23, 2016 2:46 am

so I think between the two of them I'm leaning toward voting for Ms Marangal, but I'm really interested in hearing what others have to say, as I've not had the greatest reads so far.

Equinox

, once one lynch occurs, if the game continues, are the two remaining town players from that cell allowed to continue posting? or is the game effectively over for that entire cell? I assume the former, but I'm checking just in case, because if so, it makes the most sense to focus on one cell at a time given the way deadlines work at this point (and I'm thinking it makes sense to focus on the Not_Mafia/RachMarie/shaddowez cell first, because having the endgame involve 3 confirmed town players and only 1 mafia out of 5 players seems ideal).

xyzzy · Post Post #557 (isolation #26) » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:52 pm

the fact that RedCoyote allegedly didn't realize that we could only vote within our own cells feels potentially fake, but it's possible I'm just being paranoid.

it occurs to me that looking at all the possible permutations of the scum team could make sense right now; there's only six possibilities, so assessing each one of them individually is pretty feasible. I'm going to be looking at interactions between each pair, and also try to focus on whether any of the six possible teams seems to have a compelling reason to kill Shadow_step night 1 instead of me. I'm gonna do this when it's not 5 AM, though, so that'll come later.

xyzzy · Post Post #582 (isolation #27) » Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:08 pm

given that shaddowez could literally end the game immediately as scum, I feel like at this point it's safe to assume that he's town; there's literally no reason not to just hammer town if you get the chance in rarefaction as scum.

xyzzy · Post Post #584 (isolation #28) » Sat Jul 30, 2016 5:23 pm

on the other hand, you put your cell at L-1 at lylo, so you seem like a reasonable scum possibility.

I'm still working through the rest of the options before I make up your mind.

xyzzy · Post Post #585 (isolation #29) » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:19 am

hey, here's a record of all the votes by players who are still living other than myself that I put together while rereading.

4: RachMarie votes TNE
6: Infinity (replaced by shaddowez) votes xyzzy
10: shotty (replaced by Not_Mafia) votes xyzzy
16: RedCoyote votes Kappy (replaced by Fire Assassin)
28: shotty (replaced by Not_Mafia) votes Kappy (replaced by Fire Assassin)
94: shotty (replaced by Not_Mafia) votes RachMarie
104: Ms Marangel votes RachMarie
133: RedCoyote votes Infinity (replaced by shaddowez)
197: Ms Marangel votes Infinity (replaced by shaddowez)
211: Infinity (replaced by shaddowez) votes Not_Mafia
215: Infinity (replaced by shaddowez) votes xyzzy
216: RachMarie votes xyzzy
217: Not_Mafia votes xyzzy
237: IC claim
238: Infinity (replaced by shaddowez) votes RachMarie
248: Not_Mafia votes TNE
252: RachMarie votes Not_Mafia
280: RedCoyote unvotes
307: Fire Assassin unvotes
308: Ms Marangel votes TNE
354: Infinity votes Fire Assassin
363: Fire Assassin votes TNE
374: Not_Mafia votes TNE (was already voting TNE)
376: day 2 begins
377: RachMarie votes Not_Mafia
390: shaddowez votes Fire Assassin
391: Not_Mafia votes shaddowez
419: Not_Mafia votes Fire Assassin
421: RachMarie unvotes
439: shaddowez unvotes
444: RachMarie votes Fire Assassin
457: Not_Mafia votes Fire Assassin (meant to unvote)
466: Not_Mafia unvotes
470: Not_Mafia votes Fire Assassin
496: Not_Mafia unvotes
501: shaddowez votes RachMarie
526: Not_Mafia votes Fire Assassin
528: Ms Marangel votes Fire Assassin
537: rarefaction starts
551: Ms Marangel votes RedCoyote
556: RedCoyote votes Ms Marangel
563: RachMarie votes Not_Mafia

I feel like shaddowez can be treated as confirmed town, because there's no reason for scum shaddowez to not just hammer and win. I feel like out of RachMarie and Not_Mafia that RachMarie is more likely to be scum. I feel like out of Ms Marangel and RedCoyote, RedCoyote is more likely to be a scum partner with RachMarie. if I had to vote for someone immediately, it would be RedCoyote. I'd prefer to hear what others have to say first, though.

xyzzy · Post Post #588 (isolation #30) » Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:27 pm

I'd love to hear your thoughts on Ms Marangal, and also your thoughts on who you believe is scum in the other cell.

xyzzy · Post Post #590 (isolation #31) » Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:20 am

one thing I still can't figure out is why scum nightkilled Shadow_step; I was hoping reading his iso would be illuminating, but all of his pressure throughout day 1 was on me, TNE, and Fire Assassin. the only good reason I can come up with for killing anyone other than me was to eliminate someone whose presence was really strong for the town, so killing someone who was mostly going along with the town wagons that everyone else was on just doesn't make sense. or I guess it could come from a belief that I'm a weak enough player that my poor judgment would result in a town loss in rarefaction, but I

hope

that's not the case...

xyzzy · Post Post #595 (isolation #32) » Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:05 pm

hey I'm gonna vote in a little bit. I really dislike the fact that RedCoyote made no attempt to defend himself or say anything substantial about Ms Marangel. granted, Ms Marangel also didn't contribute much of anything, but there wasn't really any pressure for her to defend herself against. so, anyway, if anyone has any strong objections to me voting RedCoyote, let me know sometime soon, because obviously I need to vote before deadline happens. I'll be going to bed before then, so I don't have forever, but, y'know, if you get anything in before then, I'll listen.

xyzzy · Post Post #597 (isolation #33) » Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:24 pm

well okay nevermind now we have another two weeks before I need to vote, assuming town didn't just lose (let's hope town didn't just lose)

xyzzy · Post Post #601 (isolation #34) » Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:19 am

you're right, this is a lot of pressure, but having 2 confirmed town players to confer with definitely isn't bad...

xyzzy · Post Post #610 (isolation #35) » Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:58 am

whenever RedCoyote shows up again, he better have a lot to contribute to the game, because I'm definitely leaning hard toward voting him right now.

xyzzy · Post Post #621 (isolation #36) » Sat Aug 13, 2016 12:09 pm

I feel like a lot of RedCoyote's points can be summed up as "I had fewer scummy interactions with shotty/N_M" when really it feels like he's just had fewer interactions at all, which isn't great. I feel like some of the arguments regarding Ms Marangel's interactions with shotty/N_M are a little weak, and he even leans a lot on times when she wasn't explicitly interacting with him. I'm also really just not super into the idea of just giving a numerical score to how many scummy things people have done, because that's not very nuanced and leaves a lot of room for deliberately inserting flaws into the argument.

xyzzy · Post Post #630 (isolation #37) » Tue Aug 16, 2016 4:58 pm

about every 24 hours I begin to type up a post with my thoughts on this game in this thread and then I'm never able to fully work together a complete idea... part of me feels like RedCoyote is trying harder to win than anyone else, and I'm not necessarily opposed to the person trying hardest winning even if that means I lose, but my gut still says he's scum. I really need to just make a decision... I'm so indecisive and this is a difficult position to be in and dragging it out isn't helping.

xyzzy · Post Post #637 (isolation #38) » Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:47 pm

I feel like at this point I'm just needlessly extending the game by not voting. I really dislike post #633's claim that "okay, you're posting, you're still scummy" is an argument anyone ever made--I feel like I've made it clear that my issue with RedCoyote is that I find his posts today disingenuous, not that their mere existence is bad. but I guess that's probably an irrelevant point.

I still definitely don't feel sure about this, but I don't think waiting another 25 hours will change that.

VOTE: RedCoyote

let's hope I'm right about this?

xyzzy · Post Post #641 (isolation #39) » Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:06 pm

thanks for running this, Equinox! I had fun.

xyzzy · Post Post #642 (isolation #40) » Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:11 pm

also: I was incredibly impressed when I hammered and then

literally less than a minute later

I refreshed and the thread was locked