Micro 621: Mafia in Rarefaction (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.15

thenewearth (4) -

Not_Mafia,

Ms Marangal, Fire Assassin,

thenewearth,

, Shadow_step, Not_Mafia
Fire Assassin (3) -

Shadow_step,

Infinity 324, xyzzy, thenewearth
Not_Mafia (1) - RachMarie,

thenewearth

Infinity 324 (0) -

xyzzy

RachMarie (0) -

Infinity 324

Not Voting (1) - RedCoyote,

Fire Assassin

With 9 votes, it will take 5 to reach majority.

The deadline is Tuesday, July 12, 2016, at 2:00 AM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2016-07-12 02:00:00).[/area]

Moderator Comments

RedCoyote is on V/LA from July 8 to July 11.
Infinity 324 is on V/LA from July 10 to July 16.

There was an error in this vote count that has been corrected.

---

The first order of business was, of course, to eliminate the most suspicious person in the room. As they were all trying to decide, the power went out. There was a scuffle in the pitch black and a loud banging noise. However, when the lights returned, no one seemed to be hurt. In the chaos, no clear majority emerged on a suspect, so they settled instead on thenewearth. Of course, now would have been a good time for someone to give advice regarding compromises.

thenewearth,

town vanilla

, was lynched on Day 1!

Night 1 begins now. The deadline is on Thursday, July 14, 2016, at 10:00 AM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2016-07-14 10:00:00).

[Equinox]

Roll call revealed that one among them was missing. It took a while for them to find a piece of Shadow_step underneath a chair. It took another while for them to find the second piece masquerading as a lamp. It took yet another while for them to find the third piece chilling in the wine cooler. Whoever the murderer was had a twisted sense of humor.

Shadow_step,

town vanilla

, has died on Night 1!

Day 2 begins now.

Vote Count 2.00

Not Voting (7) - Fire Assassin, Infinity 324, Ms Marangal, Not_Mafia, RachMarie, RedCoyote,

Shadow_step,

xyzzy

With 7 votes, it will take 4 to reach majority.

The deadline is Thursday, July 28, 2016, at 1:00 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2016-07-28 13:00:00).[/area]

Moderator Comments

Infinity 324 is on V/LA from July 10 to July 16.

[RachMarie]

VOTE: Not Mafia

[xyzzy]

I'm really surprised I'm not dead? like, I guess this could be some weird scum gambit, but I can't think of any scenarios where that could reliably work well for scum; any hypothetical scenario where this plays out well for scum relies on things they have only limited control over going exactly the way they need them to.

the ideal scenario mathematically for scum is that I'm lynched today and the game goes into rarefaction without its innocent child, which (assuming completely random lynches) has an 8/9 chance of a town win; if instead a townie is lynches today, it goes into rarefaction with random lynches giving scum a 5/6 chance of winning; if instead scum is lynched today, then their choices are 1)kill me on either night 2 or 3, giving them an 8/15 chance of winning based on random lynches, or 2)don't night kill me, giving them a 2/5 chance of winning based on random lynches. so I guess they're banking on a lynch of me happening today, but I don't think there's any logical reason to lynch me unless there's a counter claim today, because if I were lying, then the town would immediately know that as soon as rarefaction starts, which would be really bad for me, and there's not even a good reason for a counter claim from scum today.

basically, the only way I see me not being dead working out is if the town acts in a specifically illogical manner. there's a ton of hypothetical scenarios here, and I'm having trouble keeping track of all of them, but I really can't think of any where just killing me last night wouldn't have been more efficient, which is... really confusing!

[RachMarie]

Yeah I am surprised by that too xyz. the only things I can think of, is they derped and figured you would be doc protected or jailkept or something, which is not in this setup, but sometimes it happens, I have a couple times forgotten my role, like I remember in a game a couple years back, I derped on the difference tween tracker and watcher lol. The other being they knew it was not rarefication yet so figured they could throw some mud on your claim. Other than those two possibilities Im kinda clueless why they did not nk you?


Not Mafia has something to answer for, that quick hammer without any discussion and so on, reeks of scum.

[xyzzy]

I have some thoughts regarding Not_Mafia's vote, but I'd like to hear what he has to say about it first.

[Fire Assassin]

There's several reasons why they wouldn't kill you to be honest most have to do with you having terrible reads. I suspect they either think shadow was unlikely to get lynched and or having good reads.

Right now i am not liking rach putting a vote on not mafia.
Rach do you have no other scum reads?

[Fire Assassin]

yes, the game is still dead.
Shocker.

[RedCoyote]

Sorry, I've been totally swamped with work and moving. It's completely sapped my energy for Mafia.

[RachMarie]

He is my strongest scum read

Red is a town read
xyz duh un CCed inno kid
Infin is a town read
Mara is prob town this does not feel like her scum game

oh yeah there is you... defending your scum buddy much?>

Though it is very unusual having BOTH scumz on the lynch wagon. However since the counterwagon was YOU and I was on Not Mafia my strongest scum read, and since I was town reading TNE, I definitely would have gone for you but Not mafia quick hammered :/

[Equinox]

shaddowez replaces Infinity 324. Thank you!

[shaddowez]

Hey everybody - I'm here and reading up now. Other than xy claiming IC, are there any important points I should keep in mind reading through?

[RachMarie]

how do you feel about not mafia quick hammering yesterday?

[shaddowez]

So, that wasn't a quick hammer, nor was it even actually a lynch - N_M was already on the wagon, so him voting TNE just changed it from 4 votes to...4 votes. Even the VC only has 4 votes on the wagon.

[shaddowez]

Regardless of the mistake, that was either a ploy or N_M forgot he wasn't on the wagon and intended it to be a quick hammer. One of TNE's biggest adversaries was Shadow, who is now conftown, so I don't believe that TNE had any chance of not being lynched. However, the rest of N_M's play doesn't lead to that move being town motivated in either scenario. shotty's play was also scummy, as he seemed to be stoking quite a few fires as it were, but never trying to add value or do anything himself.

I don't mind getting lynched. The players here are lurking and it won't bother me to lose.

This along with 368 feel like AtE, and if you're town is against your wincon. If you really think there's nothing going on in this game, why don't you do something to promote interactions? "This game isn't doing anything, so I'm going to continue to do nothing" doesn't help anyone. You literally gave no reads, and just voted TNE to "move the game forward".

Will lynch: Infinity, Shadow
Maybe lynch: Rach, Kappy
Won't lynch: MM, NM, xyzzy, tne

In a perfect world, Infinity, Fire and Rach would all die instantly and town would win the game, I think.

RC

- In 75 posts, you seem to completely drop Shadow out of your lynch pool, even though they were above Rach and Kappy/Fire - why was that?

[shaddowez]

Here's the top two wagons VC pre 372 where Shadow moves his vote (also corrected for TNE not actually voting himself):

thenewearth (3) - Not_Mafia, Ms Marangal, Fire Assassin
Fire Assassin (4) -

Shadow_step

,

Infinity 324

,

xyzzy

,

thenewearth

Assuming xy is telling the truth (which considering no CC at this point is only logical), and knowing my alignment, the FA wagon was at L-1 with

all town

on it.

VOTE: Fire Assassin

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: shadowez

[Fire Assassin]

So, that wasn't a quick hammer, nor was it even actually a lynch - N_M was already on the wagon, so him voting TNE just changed it from 4 votes to...4 votes. Even the VC only has 4 votes on the wagon.

Yes, it wasn't a quick hammer.

[Fire Assassin]

This along with 368 feel like AtE, and if you're town is against your wincon. If you really think there's nothing going on in this game, why don't you do something to promote interactions? "This game isn't doing anything, so I'm going to continue to do nothing" doesn't help anyone. You literally gave no reads, and just voted TNE to "move the game forward".

Its against everyone win cons to not play the game. Or at least its against towns, yet theres at least 6 players here not playing the game, so who we going to report for playing against win con?

I mean, you can interpret it as AtE, but its anything but that. Its me saying "I am not going to participate in a game where no one else is participating in", I put forward effort if I think others are doing so, and if I am invested in the game. Which is easier to do if again, the players care.
No one seems to care, so whats the point?

I would say this as either alignment. NAI, because I have gone out of my way to do kills as scum just to make sure the game wasn't a dead lurker fest in order to not have a hollow win.

[Fire Assassin]

This along with 368 feel like AtE, and if you're town is against your wincon. If you really think there's nothing going on in this game, why don't you do something to promote interactions? "This game isn't doing anything, so I'm going to continue to do nothing" doesn't help anyone. You literally gave no reads, and just voted TNE to "move the game forward".

Its against everyone win cons to not play the game. Or at least its against towns, yet theres at least 6 players here not playing the game, so who we going to report for playing against win con?

I mean, you can interpret it as AtE, but its anything but that. Its me saying "I am not going to participate in a game where no one else is participating in", I put forward effort if I think others are doing so, and if I am invested in the game. Which is easier to do if again, the players care.
No one seems to care, so whats the point?

I would say this as either alignment. NAI, because I have gone out of my way to do kills as scum just to make sure the game wasn't a dead lurker fest in order to not have a hollow win.

[xyzzy]

I think I'm okay with either a Fire Assassin lynch or a Not_Mafia lynch; shaddowez's 390 feels pretty town to me, and I like the logic used there, and I was fine with a Fire Assassin lynch yesterday, obviously; Not_Mafia's vote in 391 just isn't very good at all. so depending on how the day goes I'm fine with either one, but for now I'll

VOTE: Fire Assassin

[RachMarie]

yeah the Kappy "wagon" is nonexistent and saying otherwise feels disingenuous

I find your echo sabre disturbing

UNVOTE:
VOTE: xyzzy

Infinite vs. Xyzzy is scum vs. town.

Vote on or the other plz.

Lets not dwell in these RVS votes.

You'd think she would vote Infinity after xyz claimed IC as she believes xyz vs infinity was t v s.

VOTE: TNE

L-1, someone state intent

Here Shadow step puts TNE at L1 and requests the next vote to declare intent.

VOTE: TNE

Just TWO votes later NM votes TNE with no hammer.

NEXT POST TNE is lynched and and flipped

So yeah there WAS a quick hammer by NM on TNE ...

Or else the mod marked someone as lynched that only had 4 votes on him.

[RachMarie]

Still I am fine with either him or FA both are in my scum pile and I definitely see interactions tween them.

[Not_Mafia]

It's plurality lynch

[RachMarie]

It is? I missed that somehow, still your vote was the hammer,

So how about explaining why you hammered with no intent nothing just bam out of the blue