Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

[serrapaladin]

Hey folks.

I'm conftown, huh? Sweet!

Why do people want to hammer with 8 days on the clock and someone being replaced? I'll get to fully catch-up tomorrow, but wouldn't mind a quick recap.

[serrapaladin]

So I agree with duppin being town, and I believe TTH's crumb.

IPS was quite soft-defendy towards aristo, and didn't really mention him otherwise.

I'm still confused about how overpowered town seems to be.

I've mostly seen this from scum.

Do we think the remaining scum is a neighbour?

[serrapaladin]

So I think the other town neighbour should claim today, if there is one.

I do kind of like the effort you're putting in.

[serrapaladin]

Claiming now: I am Fire Assassin's neighbour.

Summarizing stuff in the neighbourhood now.

Missed this, sorry.

[serrapaladin]

So this is tough. I think the setup works better with both neighbours town.

I'm a bit worried that neither wingback nor BNL are trying to throw suspicion on duppin.

[serrapaladin]

Fire Assassin as the NK also sort of makes more sense with BNL scum.

I don't see myself voting for duppin. There's a slight chance TTH is scum neapolitan, which would sort of make setup sense, but she would have had a much easier path to victory than clearing me, so I don't really see it.

How come you have such a preference for being vigged over lynched?

[serrapaladin]

Lynching BNL and vig/lynching Wingback should he flip town is where I'm at.

TTH and GL, any comments?

[serrapaladin]

Hmm, if that's true he's trying pretty hard here for little to no upside. But I guess we'll see.

So you're also happy with duppin-town and TTH-town?

[serrapaladin]

Legit.

Wanna discuss what we would do in that lylo? Or shall we leave it to avoid WIFOMing the NK?

[serrapaladin]

Cool - and you're definitely not bulletproof, right Wingback?

[serrapaladin]

Okay yeah, let's talk about this now then, I guess.

So I'm not convinced scum-TTH would have crumbed neapolitan. On the other hand, balance of that version actually feels a bit better, with neap acting as a weakened role cop, while 2 neighbours + vig + doc is not bad.

[serrapaladin]

Actually though, role cop + ascetic vig is just a weird interaction. I do think the vig is only ascetic so he can't be healed. Mafia having a BP, healer than can self-target, or maybe just a neighbour makes more sense.

[serrapaladin]

Would still like TTH to check in.

@mod: how do you resolve vig vs. goon endgame

[serrapaladin]

@mod: if, when the game goes to night, the only players alive are a town vig and a mafia goon, and they target each other with kills, what happens?

[serrapaladin]

So you still have something to check/say?

I'm happy to wait?

[serrapaladin]

VOTE: BNL

[serrapaladin]

I thought this might happen.

Cock.

[serrapaladin]

Why did you think Aristo/TTH was unlikely enough that you could just auto the game?

[serrapaladin]

But why is that enough certainty to justify fixing the order of events without further discussion?

[serrapaladin]

I mean sure I can explain why I think the idea of me ever being with Aristo is rather silly, I just don't really think it matters if we can just auto this.

why would you ask conftown that question?

I'm asking you because I believe the game is auto. If you think I'm likely scum, then you don't need to include me in the auto. I'm pretty sure Elyse and TTH aren't ever with Aristo.

Like, these came way before TTH said anything D2.

And I don't think anyone except GL can claim towncred for aristo, because he wasn't actually lynched.

[serrapaladin]

And why was my slot super town?

[serrapaladin]

@TTH: do you have a history of crumbing your role as a town PR? What about as scum?

[serrapaladin]

@mod: what does a neapolitan return when successfully investigating a mafia goon

[serrapaladin]

Town feels a little OP but yeah let's lynch Wingback and then I'll shoot BNL tonight if Wingback flips town. If somehow that doesn't end it then it'll be a LYLO decision between duppin/TTH, hopefully I would get killed so it would be Elyse that has to deal with it

You could be right, depending on what specials scum have, but I would wager that the Normal Review Group does not agree with you.

That's actually the reason I think BnL is town. Two town neighbors would further narrow the pool of people I could possibly confirm and nerf the utility of my role. (This is all with the caveat that setup speculation is not really my thing.)

Explain how this link suggests doc+vig+neighbours+1-shot neap is balanced in a 2:7.

[serrapaladin]

Also, why did you target my slot, and not someone you were scumreading?

[serrapaladin]

I have this nagging voice in my head telling me that the neap is a twist on rolecop and the neighbours are decoys. I guess scum have daytalk, so it's possible they have no PR. Giving them 1 BP is not fun, and there's no indication of a different PR.

[serrapaladin]

I'm the one who steps from the shadows,
all trenchcoat and cigarette and arrogance,
ready to deal with the madness.

VOTE: lane

Could you briefly explain this game to me, please? Was that a post by you as scum?

[serrapaladin]

T

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a

re no breadcrumbs

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t

his p

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st to be found. Move

r

ight along.

VOTE: RC

And what's up with this.

Looks to me like you've been toying with crumbing/fake-crumbing as either faction.

[serrapaladin]

@duppin: how do you explain scum!TTH choosing to clear Elyse?

[serrapaladin]

hmm

[serrapaladin]

GL or duppin for Aris' partner

Also, I'm townreading BnL though I'm unsure if the reason I'm doing it is really justified. :S

Right off the bat, Wingback's SK obsession is pretty awful.

FA kill is odd to me, makes me think there's scum in the neighborhood or scum is very commonly townread. I'm probably game for a BNL lynch today, if that doesn't end it I'm happy to hear opinions on who I should shoot. Wingback felt very town to me in twilight and everyone else pushed on Aristophanes in a mostly convincing manner. If TTH or Elyse is scum then we're in for a rough go

Then I have excellent news. Both TTH

and

Elyse are town.

A really attentive/good TTH at this point could have anticipated this LyLo at that point in the game, and expected Elyse to vote for you. Except then Elyse got replaced.

For what it's worth, if I were scum here I wouldn't have crumbed an investigative special without having any idea of what the rest of the setup looked like. As scum, I play conservatively (vanilla claims and minimal to no bussing) because that's the style that wins scum games. Whenever I

do

take a risk (like my vig fakeclaim in the DC Universe game you quoted), it's a calculated risk based on knowledge I already have (I was a rolecop there and about halfway through a massclaim, so I already knew the whole setup by the time I made my claim).

I know that's a self-assessment and probably not worth that much to you, but that's my $0.02.

But that's the whole point of crumbing: it's not obvious or dangerous if you choose not to reveal it.

[serrapaladin]

It's not suboptimal play though. The lynch/kill order at the point you claimed was fairly obvious, and you would have known that you had to kill GL, not Elyse. Clearing Elyse is most likely going to increase her townread on you and solidify her voting duppin over you.

Ugh this sucks, I really didn't want the game to go like this. I just don't know. I thought you were both pretty town throughout, and neither of your play yesterday is strong one way or the other. But I also don't really have any more angles to attack.

Killing FA would make sense just to get him off aristo, not knowing aristo would be killed. Even more so, with duppin fairly widely townread, there wouldn't really be anyone to get rid of that's suspicious of him.

I think I currently find Wingback's posts about TTH being scum most convincing, including how TTH happened to post elsewhere shortly after the thread locked for D1, as TTH somewhat avoided hammer + twilight.

[serrapaladin]

I'll aim to come to a decision tomorrow, as I don't really think my read is going to get any better with more time.

[serrapaladin]

Honestly it's a mostly a character read. I'm not getting any townvibes from you, which I usually do when your town. I will admit it is possible some of it has to do with you going V/LA so yeah.

What did this mean?

It sounds a bit dissonant after

VOTE: Aristophanes

This doesn't feel like your town play.

[serrapaladin]

Fair enough.

[serrapaladin]

So I haven't really been thinking about the implications of scum having day talk enough.

I actually feel like scum!TTH and aristo would have interacted more D1 with day talk available, as one of the things scum tend to keep an eye on is whether their interaction is believable.

duppin makes sure to have a series of questions at aristo, but I don't think any of them are very interesting. duppin also jumps onto postie at a pretty crucial moment.

[serrapaladin]

VOTE: Aristophanes

L-1

Alright-y, I'm about to go to sleep but I am all caught up on reading the thread.
Quick thoughts: I like GuiltyLion for town and I still like my vote on Ari. I would be good with that or a Postie lynch.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Vote Postie

I'm going to ask you for the third time (or fourth?), what was the purpose of #244?

I fail to see the town motivation behind it. Basically what you said was that you agreed this wasn't his town game but just him playing differently, which honestly just implies that he could be either alignment. That is correct.
Seeing as you agree it isn't his town game, don't you think it is a good idea to pressure him to get a better read? I thought so, apparently you did not because otherwise I do not see why'd you post that. I felt like you were trying to discourage me from voting on him but on the otherhand you weren't willing to commit to a townread. Seemed a bit like fencesitting.

So what I wanted to know was why you did not agree with my vote on him. The most logical answer was that it was because you were townreading him, so I asked you if you thought him playing differently was towny. Your response was no, but in the very same post you claimed you had a gut town read on him, which I thought was a bit weird but it could possibly explain why your post, although I still don't like how you worded it.

But if that is the case, please explain why you thought he was town at the time? Because the posts you brought up in #279 all came after #244, so obviously they couldn't have been part of your initial gut read on him.

Anyway, I still find Aristo suspicious, but at the moment I think you are more likely to be scum. You could very well be scum just fishing for townc redit (if Aristo is a mislynch). I think this would explain the weird progression of your read. (playing differently > gut town read > hard defend). In this world it would seem like you tried to keep your options open at first (#244 feels a bit like fencesitting) but then when questioned you commit to a townread on him.
It's also possible it was just you posting just to get some content in.

So yeah Postie, plx stop dodging and answer my question. Why did you feel the need to question my vote on Aristo? If it was because you were townreading him, why were you being so cryptic and can you explain your town read? (as in why you were townreading him at this point)

[serrapaladin]

And we don't know if mafia has daychat, but if they do why would you expect TTH and Aristo to interact more? She had already gotten herself into a excellent position should Aristo flip scum due to her early push on him.

This is infuriating, given this:

I'm ascetic vig lol

Since there's no way to convince you that I'm not SK (since if I were SK, I would play this exact way), why don't you tell me who you think Aristo's partner is first. Trivially it can't be me. I know there's no serial killer, so if we lynch the other scum today we win.

This normal setup is confirmed to have faction numbers 7:2.

[serrapaladin]

The line about there being daytalk is literally 3 lines from the 7:2 split. I fail to see how you didn't notice that.

[serrapaladin]

But I could see why scum!duppin wouldn't want to draw attention to it.

[serrapaladin]

Hmm, I don't think I believe you, and for TTH to be scum just requires a few more assumptions than for you to be scum.

Either way, whoever is scum has played a pretty good game.

[serrapaladin]

Honestly it's a mostly a character read. I'm not getting any townvibes from you, which I usually do when your town. I will admit it is possible some of it has to do with you going V/LA so yeah.

What did this mean?

It sounds a bit dissonant after

VOTE: Aristophanes

This doesn't feel like your town play.

I don't think this was ever meant to be a lynch wagon on aristo. The hedging of Aristo being V/LA allows you to easily withdraw this scumread with him being more active, but it also aims to distance.

[serrapaladin]

This is where I'm at, sorry to all if I'm wrong - I hate lylo :/

VOTE: duppin

[serrapaladin]

Ugh, stupid lylos.

[serrapaladin]

Half rolecop + day talk vs. Vig + doc didn't feel balanced to me...

[serrapaladin]

I guess the balance depends on how much you value day talk. In a game with a fairly high proportion of PRs, I think it can be pretty powerful. I think doc + vig vs. goons without daytalk is probably roughly balanced, but then I don't think a vig is on average that strong a PR.