Micro 629 - The Arena - Game Over

[Leonshade]

Let the games begin!

[Leonshade]

I'm in favor of a pseudo-vote, I can't think of any other way to get useful discussion going.

[Leonshade]

I would've picked randomly if i was mafia.

That is my best guess since they picked it so fast.

Another possibility is that they picked me because i haven't gotten as many completed games, so i would be an easy early lynch.

What do you mean 'they picked it so fast'?

For some reason i thought this thread was younger than it was.

What i meant was that they didn't need much more than 48 hours, but obviously 48 hours is more than enough time for scum to decide who gets the bomb.

Townslip.

[Leonshade]

Provided that Map Wolf is town (which I'm leaning towards), and given what Hopkirk said, I think he was chosen because he has no connections to anyone in this game. I'm skeptical of the idea that scum would pick a random choice.

[Leonshade]

I'm going to sleep now, so I'll just leave my pseudo-vote on someone who hasn't posted yet.

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Leonshade]

@Leon - So as scum (not saying you, in genetal) do you think it's a better chance to not be challenged by choosing someone with no associations to someone you have played with or has played with others?
The difference with random there is no real reason to back it while aiming for experience you are pushing a reason there.

What do you think about my scum receiving it comment? Without taking map Wolf into the situation, do you think it's higher or less risk to vote yourself as scum?

I don't want to go too deep into theoryfluff, so I'll attempt to keep my answer as game related as possible:

Answering your questions in reverse order, I think that being on the chopping block in this setup is more risky than scum picking themselves. Scum as gladiator leaves a visible trail, while choosing a townie means we can only speculate as to why they were picked, especially on D1 with little information. You made the claim in post #19 that scum would pick themselves because people are less likely to vote for the first person picked. I say that that would be scum banking on the town being bad. Getting picked as gladiator shouldn't influence your read on that player in either direction.

I don't think scum picks a player with no associations like Map Wolf to reduce their chances to be picked, but to make it impossible to read anything into the D1 pick for gladiator. For example, the only player I have any kind of meta with in this game is Magna. If I was scum, Magna is the last person I would want to pick for the first gladiator, because the association between me and Magna being picked first would be slightly easier to make. If scum follows this logic to its conclusion, a player like Map Wolf is a good pick to make.

I'm not in favor of analyzing the D1 pick too deeply at this point, I'm only posting the above because you asked. Being the first gladiator isn't AI in either direction, analyzing it is about as useful as analyzing early NKs.

I will say that Map Wolf's method here could be more likely to come from scum and actually holds an advantage if they're scum (since we obviously can't pseudo vote mapwolf, if he were scum we'd only be ablt to vote 1 other mafia in 8 people)

What would be less scummy then holding a vote though? Holding a vote helps us since everyone is involved, and i am even more held accountable for who i nominate (i would be lynched against someone with no votes). Surely it would hurt our chances if i just simply nominated someone without any discussion.

I am just asking how else should i have nominated my opponent?

Holding a vote isn't AI, as it allows you to hide your choice behind what the town picks, allowing you to rid yourself of personal responsibility for your pick. I am in favor of holding a vote, as this is the only time town will actually have full control over who gets picked. But you should participate as well, so that you can't hide behind what everyone else picks for you.

Dunn is reading as town to me. Mr. Numbers doesn't. That "townslip" doesn't read like a townslip at all.

UNVOTE: Dunnstral
VOTE: 123456789

[Leonshade]

RVS vote:

VOTE: Dunn

UNVOTE:

...I really dont care who gets picked to be gladiated. Theres also too much WIFOM in this game, and I have a feeling this game is scum-sided.

Nowhere in here do you say that you unvoted because you realized there isn't an RVS, you only said that after you got called out on this.

[Leonshade]

For example, the only player I have any kind of meta with in this game is Magna.

Reading this I did a double take. I didn’t recall you ever being in a completed game with me. So I dived into your thread history to look at your topics and found this.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=18300

That’s the only game I could find.

1. Did you do pre-game research on player history yourself?
2. What sort of meta would you suggest a Large game that you replaced out of with a whopping 34 posts would indicate?
3. Did you expect I would remember you from said game that ended almost 5 years ago?

I think you're reading more into what I said than I intended to convey. It was meant as a hypothetical example to demonstrate my point, not as a concrete example of how I, personally, would've behaved as scum. Note that I claim that you're the only one I have "any kind" of meta with, not that I have any useful meta with you. In practice, I doubt I would've been any more averse to gladiating you more than anyone else.

And no, I didn't do any pre-game research on player history.

@Leon
'For example, the only player I have any kind of meta with in this game is Magna. If I was scum, Magna is the last person I would want to pick for the first gladiator, because the association between me and Magna being picked first would be slightly easier to make.'

Why didn't mafia look for this pregame and pick you?

It would've been a weak connection, as Magna has stated.

[Leonshade]

Dunn is reading as town to me.

Please elaborate as I am not seeing Town from Dunn.

It was a gut read, but after reading his ISO, I'm not reading him as town either. It might've just been because he agreed with my Map Wolf read . He's null for me.

@Map Wolf:

I'm voting for 123456789 now.

@Karnos:

While I agree that this day is skewed towards scum, I'm not sure why you think that means that a vote shouldn't take place. Map Wolf picking all by himself might give us a better idea of Map Wolf's alignment, but if he's town, it makes it even easier for scum to coast their way through the day. With a vote we can see who was on which wagon and get information similar to a normal game.

Will everyone please stop saying that Map Wolf won't get voted "because of course he's town"? Have some faith in town not being bad.

It's my birthday, so I won't be all that active today. I'll be back before the deadline.

[Leonshade]

I'm voting for Numbers, Dunn hadn't even posted when I voted for him.

I agree with Vedith that Numbers is a good vote. Powerdown's also a good choice for coming in just to prod dodge.

Also Dunn, as town, you should think that Leo is a better choice than yourself.
11 hours until you are up for the vote (if Map votes where most votes are).

Are you reading Dunn as town?

[Leonshade]

Map Wolf nominated who I wanted, and I'm still reading him as town, so my vote is self-evident.

VOTE: 123456789

[Leonshade]

Numbers, I'm glad I voted for you.

Because it got you to do some work.

UNVOTE: 123456789

I will be doing some re-reading tomorrow. I also need to read Map Wolf's scum meta.

@123456789:

Are you willing to divulge what your main account is?

[Leonshade]

Oh right, I remember Ircher /inning to this game now, I simply forgot.

Map Wolf's scum meta in that Summer Waltz game didn't have much to it, but he did do the whole "I can see why my posts may be seen as scummy" shtick, which he's also done this game. In general, I don't like the way Map Wolf posted close to the deadline.

Stating that you made a townslip is not something town usually does.

Have you ever seen scum do this?

Why did you vote for Numbers? You made fun of him for his whole townslip thing, but you don't seem to think of it as a scumtell, and you've provided no other explanation.

@Leon

– so your entire reason for selecting 1234 as Gladiate target was to motivate him to do something?

No, I'm simply trying to find the silver lining in what I consider a mistake.

Both lurkers would be good gladiates for D2.

[Leonshade]

Spoiler: Why I thought Map Wolf was town:

I would've picked randomly if i was mafia.

That is my best guess since they picked it so fast.

Another possibility is that they picked me because i haven't gotten as many completed games, so i would be an easy early lynch.

What do you mean 'they picked it so fast'?

For some reason i thought this thread was younger than it was.

What i meant was that they didn't need much more than 48 hours, but obviously 48 hours is more than enough time for scum to decide who gets the bomb.

Townslip.

I leaned towards this being a townslip from Map Wolf. I also had the suspicion that scum would be more likely to pick town first, though I didn't do the math like Numbers did. I wasn't 100% sure that this was a townslip, but I made this post in an effort to fish for reactions. If Map Wolf was town, scum would have a reason to downplay the importance of this, in case one of them gets picked. Vedith was quick to point out that townslips can be faked (I know), that I was buddying Map Wolf (no) and that scum would be likely to pick themselves first because "scum won't pick themselves" (WIFOM) and because they get control on the second person. The last point is valid, I didn't read Vedith's response as scummy and everyone else ignored my post, so I didn't bring the subject up again. Map Wolf's potential townslip still colored my read of him, though, and I liked his posting after that, too. I saw him as newb town who didn't really have any strong reads, so he figured he'd just sheep town.

What I don't like are his attempts to deflect suspicion off himself. Look at post 138, getting defensive about his own post before he's hit submit. It's an over-defensive posting style similar to the one in his scum game that Magna linked in this thread. Same thing at the end of 137.

MW reads like he cares more about surviving than finding scum. He claimed that he would pick the scummiest player, but ended up picking the player with the most votes anyway, and he doesn't seem to have had a strong scumread on anyone at any point. This could just be indecisive newbtown, but since we have two choices, I'm definitely reading Map Wolf as the scummier of the two.

Read on Numbers coming later today.

[Leonshade]

Spoiler: Why I thought Numbers was scum:

The thing that first got my scum-senses tingling was post 35. Specifically Numbers claiming not to care about who gets gladiated. This was town's one shot to discuss who gets gladiated, so I didn't like this post at all. I didn't like him self-proclaiming a townslip, while simultaneously telling us not to talk about it, either. Defending his own post, while simultaneously claiming that people should ignore his defense, wink wink. Post 51 with the useless Map Wolf vote also irked me, and in general I felt that Numbers was going out of his way to avoid being helpful, while still being relatively active. My feeling is that it's easy for scum to coast in this setup in the early game, and I felt that Numbers was doing exactly that. The Hopkirk vote had poor reasoning, as well, but I think it's NAI.

Numbers was still my strongest scumread when he was picked. Even after he was picked, my initial thought after seeing his sudden uptick in activity was to find it scummy that he only started scumhunting when he was on the chopping block, and of course the other guy is scummy. It's only when I read his case carefully, tried to come up with a rebuttal and realized that he hadn't been active during the posts his case was built around that I unvoted and decided to do some re-reading. His case on Map Wolf made my reconsider my case on both him & MW, and he's been forthcoming & active since getting picked. Numbers is leaning towards town for me, now.

VOTE: Map Wolf

[Leonshade]

VOTE: Map Wolf

I think there is a fair chance that scum might self-pick in this setup, and I think it's a lot more likely than the chance that we randomly found a scum with the fake vote... so, yeah.

This is a poor reason for a vote, and isn't even a read on MW's alignment. Other than that, you've done nothing this game but argue against doing anything. If you're not going to give any other reads, at least give some reads for Wolf and Numbers.

[Leonshade]

No, I'm simply trying to find the silver lining in what I consider a mistake.

Both lurkers would be good gladiates for D2.

Why do you consider it a mistake then?

I’d like you to explain why you were so set on 1234 pre-Gladiate and right after Map made the vote. What let you to consider him scum in your mind?

I answered the other parts already, but not the bolded question.

I consider it a mistake because I don't want to lynch Numbers anymore, and I wouldn't want to lynch Map Wolf in a regular game, either. This is all hindsight, so maybe mistake isn't the most accurate word.

[Leonshade]

Next time gladiate the non-karnos lurker please

Having 1 prod dodge before the 3 dsy time should have been a policy gladiate

Wait I didn't realize the total day length was like 6 days

Please gladiate power next phase.

Dunn's last three posts, all tunneling the lurker.

@karnos

– So your stance is that giving any reads helps scum to select the players who best serve as Gladiators?

I wonder why you don’t consider that said target would consider the implication of being targeted after giving reads. Why is that?

Can you rephrase the second question?

1: No. My stance is that giving reads on players who are not votable (anyone but Map Wolf or 123456789) helps scum select a gladiator without benefiting town, but

giving reads on 123456789 or Map Wolf is certainly useful.

2: Are you saying a town player could give fake reads on a player so the gladiator is chosen based on false info? Sure, they could, but it's also likely to confuse the hell out of other town and make the townie in question look very scummy when their inconsistent reads are revealed.

Bolded: I'm glad you think so, but you still haven't done it yourself, despite voting.

[Leonshade]

[*]Votes to no lynch are not allowed. However, if a lynch is not achieved before deadline, a no lynch would occur, and the Mafia will get a factional kill on the next night, which may be used on any town player.

So no

[Leonshade]

I'm glad you think so, but you still haven't done it yourself, despite voting.

Map Wolf is scum because if I was scum I would pick a fellow scum to gladiate on day 1 every time, it's a no-brainer.

123456789 is possibly scum too. I think it would be an incredibly good move for scum to pick self as gladiator AND target. The one that isn't lynched on day 1 is granted "obvious town" status and will eventually win the game as town continually miss-lynches each other. That said, I read him as much more likely to be town, and since the pseudo vote pointed towards him he probably isn't actually scum.

123456789 - not scum unless map wolf is scum, in which case he might be scum too.

Map Wolf- fairly confident he is scum, but if he is town so is 123456789 so there is absolutely no reason at all to lynch 123456789.

Your reads have zero to do with anything either player has done this game, aside from Map Wolf picking Numbers. Everything else is speculation based on setup/scum motivation. You could post exactly the same thing without reading anything other than the vote counts.

I'm liking either karnos or Dunn for the D2 pick.

@Map Wolf:

Do you have any last reads/thoughts?

Can't agree with a no lynch, scum gets too much power.

[Leonshade]

Your reads have zero to do with anything either player has done this game, aside from Map Wolf picking Numbers. Everything else is speculation based on setup/scum motivation. You could post exactly the same thing without reading anything other than the vote counts.

Correct. Everything else can be faked, votes and gladiator selection are real and useful.

Huh. So for you, nothing, aside from votes and gladiator selection, have an effect on your reads?

[Leonshade]

@karnos:

So why me?

[Leonshade]

You first.

Why me?

VOTE: karnos

Nope. You don't get to have that scummy "Don't share reads" stance from Day 1 and then not be EXPLICITLY CLEAR on your reasoning for what you did.

How is it not clear?

Yesterday he said he would pick me. Amazingly, look who the scum picked: me. Therefore he is scum.

What.

[Leonshade]

You first.

Why me?

VOTE: karnos

Nope. You don't get to have that scummy "Don't share reads" stance from Day 1 and then not be EXPLICITLY CLEAR on your reasoning for what you did.

How is it not clear?

Yesterday he said he would pick me. Amazingly, look who the scum picked: me. Therefore he is scum.

Is this a reaction test? Because let me tell you what my reaction was, it was staring in disbelief at this post.

[Leonshade]

I think there's a good chance karnos is faking VI, I'm not reading his post as town. I look forward to seeing that reads-post he's got in store.

[Leonshade]

I'm not making up anything, I'm giving reads, something you've repeatedly refused to do. I would want you lynched even if I had a townread on you, but I don't.

[Leonshade]

I haven't focused on this game at all during the Night, so I haven't updated my reads yet.

Leonshade

Scum, thus the pick. 182 183 just feel off to me, I don't think I have seen a player post in that exact style before. Knowing map wolf's flip now, it almost seems like those posts were made as a defensive measure because leon knew he was voting someone who was going to flip town and wanted to have an excuse already in thread. As mentioned previously, I find the attacks on Dunnstral to be a little over the top for simple suggesting a lurker be put into the ring, I think it's the sort of error a scum jumps on to drive a miss lynch.

Regarding Dunn: I picked up on Dunn tunneling the lurker, which is in and of itself a form of active lurking.

Why are you trying to use reads as a reason to vote me, when you should know that you ABSOLUTELY WITHOUT DOUBT are town as reason enough?

You do know that Leon doesn't have a vote, right? Just like you?

Frankly this sort of posting reads very much like "I need to find ways to make Leon look scummy" nitpicking.

Reading his post...

I think there's a good chance karnos is faking VI, I'm not reading his post as town. I look forward to seeing that reads-post he's got in store.

...it sounds like he is trying to make a decision about me, talking about "chance" this and that. If he is town, he knows he is town. There is no reason to decide anything, you know you are town 100% and the other guy may or may not be town, you push to lynch the other guy.

The fact that he isn't doing that just looks incredibly fishy to me.

>I look forward to seeing that reads-post he's got in store

It's like he is suggesting that maybe the right read post would convince him that I am town and he should vote himself, maybe. Obviously no rational town player would ever think that. My posts should be irrelevant to Leonshade given the simple fact that he knows his own alignment.

I literally can't vote for you. Or myself, or anyone. Or, if you prefer, I'm already voting for you. That's the setup. I'm trying to figure out your alignment to convince others to vote for you over me. I'm not going to start blindly accusing you of being scum just because you picked me.

[Leonshade]

I literally can't vote for you. Or myself, or anyone. Or, if you prefer, I'm already voting for you. That's the setup. I'm trying to figure out your alignment to convince others to vote for you over me.

I'm not going to start blindly accusing you of being scum just because you picked me.

I'm liking either karnos or Dunn for the D2 pick.

But he is scum to you already...
You would not have wanted them to be picked day 2 otherwise.
This seems like you were saying it as a gambit that you wouldn't get picked. Stupid gambit if the case.

I haven't focused on this game at all during the Night, so I haven't updated my reads yet.

Me being convinced that karnos is scummy doesn't equal me being convinced that karnos is scum.

[Leonshade]

Regarding Dunn: I picked up on Dunn tunneling the lurker, which is in and of itself a form of active lurking.

Good work detective

But this discredit doesn't explain your own thoughts on it

Do you think that lurking for the starting 3 days up to the point where a gladiate target is chosen is a scummy action or a towny action?

Neither, as regular lurking is NAI since it can have non-game related reasons, as it did in this case. Only active lurking is AI.

[Leonshade]

@Numbers:

I'm curious as to what you think was the scum motivation for my 180, from your perspective. Knowing it was TVT, why would I, as scum, flip after pushing you so heavily?

And why are you voting for me if karnos is 2% higher in your scale? (How do you count your confidence on a scale of 100 anyway?)

I will be doing some re-reading later, posting some reads.

[Leonshade]

VOTE: Leonshade

Doesn't want to vote his buddy.

I was intending to do my re-reading today, but it's not happening. Will do it when I have the time.

[Leonshade]

Why the fuck would I post a post saying scum would self pick, and then self pick? Does that make any logical sense to you? Do you really think I'm so bad that I would post exactly what I plan to do in the thread for everyone to see, and then do it?

Wasn't similar logic one of your arguments for picking me? Do you think I'm so bad that I'd claim to pick you, then pick you as scum?

So I was planning on doing a re-read of everything, but I'm not gonna have much time for mafia over the weekend. I'm gonna post my reads for how I'm feeling right now.

Hopkirk is my strongest townread, he's worked on scumhunting all game.

Magna is town as well, he's also been scumhunting and was the first one to scumread Dunnstral, a read I've since come around on.

frog is leaning town for me. Between Days I found it interesting that he was the only to vote Numbers over Map Wolf, so I had the pet theory that he could be scum who wanted to get town cred from reading MW as town. But there hasn't been any scumminess in his game, I think he's been genuinely scumhunting as well.

karnos I read as scummy D1 because of his refusal to give reads, and when I saw he picked me, the read simply got stronger. He threw me for a loop with the initial reason he gave for gladiating me, but I think that was just an act, judging from the rest of his D1 pick.

Dunn is scum. He's not interested in finding scum and it's showing.

Numbers and Vedith are null for me. I don't think I should've been so hasty to flip my read on Numbers simply because he started effortposting, at this point I don't have a strong read on his alignment either way. With Vedith, I didn't like how he spent the early game discussing theory on how the scum chose their target. But that's not AI by itself, and I don't feel strongly about him either way.

[Leonshade]

I meant that if scum picked me for gladiator, I would've chosen you as the second gladiator. Or Dunn, one of the two. I was saying it in this thread to make my stance clear on who should be picked for the second gladiator if a town member got chosen for the first gladiator. I knew that town wouldn't have time to discuss the choice after the first Day, since the rules state that Dawn happens "on each Night after Day 1."

[Leonshade]

Of course it matters. People don't answer questions all the time, in fact see above re: Leonshade dodging the question about why he said he would pick me.

I answered that question pretty clearly, not sure what more you want?

[Leonshade]

I assume Dunn & karnos are buddies. If karnos flips town, then Dunn probably just wants to get rid of me, rather than karnos.

[Leonshade]

@frog:

Make your case for Vedith.

@Vedith:

What's your read on frog?

[Leonshade]

At this point I assume that Dunn is scum, and he's playing like this to not give his partner away.

@Vedith:

I hope there's more to your defense, as I'm reading frog as town and read you as null before karnos flipped town.

[Leonshade]

I'm fine with a Vedith lynch for today. I can't really think of anything else to say for today, I guess we'll wait for Magna to come back and do his read on frog before ending the day.

[Leonshade]

So I've been struggling to read Vedith's apathetic defense of himself. I would think that scum would be more invested in defending themselves, especially in the face of a likely lynch. But I wouldn't expect town to roll over and die, either.

But Vedith's (lack of) actions make more sense to me if he's a townie without a scumread on frog. If he's scum, I would expect him to at least make up some reason for why to lynch frog.

I've read frog as town up to this point, but if Vedith isn't scum, with my TRs on Magna and Hopkirk that only leaves him, Numbers and Dunn as potential scum. I can barely even remember why I read frog as town. Dunn is my current strongest SR, he hasn't looked like he's trying to solve the game. frog makes more sense as Dunn's partner than Vedith.

I entered the day sort of on autopilot, willing to let Vedith be lynched, but I don't feel good about that anymore. I'm more interested in a frog flip.

VOTE: frog

[Leonshade]

@Hopkirk:

What about Vedith's defence are you reading as scummy? He has made zero attempt to cast any suspicion on frog. Even now, as he's looking like the probable lynch, he's telling people to go after Dunn, who you are reading as his scumbuddy. He could sheep Magna on the frog/Dunn scumpair, but instead he's scumreading me for reasons that are dumb, but consistent with the way he's been thinking all game. If Vedith/Dunn is the scumpair, dying here almost guarantees a town victory, yet nothing about Vedith's play suggests that he's concerned about dying.

[Leonshade]

@Accountant:

Welcome to the game! Why frog? What are your reads?

@frog:

With Vedith flipping town, who are your scumreads?

[Leonshade]

@Mod:

I will be on V/LA September 4th-11th & 15th-20th. While I won't have much in the way of internet access on the second trip (15th-20th), I should have semi-regular internet on the first trip. I won't be requesting replacement, but I'll keep you updated if something changes.

[Leonshade]

Oh my bad. Still I don't like how he sat on easy wagons D1 and D2

Please elaborate on why you consider your slot & karnos "easy wagons" if you haven't read the game.

NL is fine by me but keep this in mind

if both of the people in the arena were town, I think the game would have ended by now

Hopkirk you shouldn't vote me, frog is obviously scum.

Why are you fine with a no-lynch is frog is obvscum?

[Leonshade]

Because we can lynch him tomorrow with no issue

And you are fine with scum getting a free kill in the meantime? There is no town reason to wish for an NL if you believe that one of the two gladiators is scum.

That goes for you too, Dunn. What is the town incentive for an NL in this situation? If both Accountant and frog are town, scum kill someone else and have the exact same situation play out. There will be no NL today.

[Leonshade]

Let's say frog is scum; who do you see as his buddy?

[Leonshade]

Yeah, Accountant's play is weird but I'm not convinced that it's scummy. And they're buddying up to Dunn too visibly, I don't think they're scumbuddies.

[Leonshade]

I also did a VCA. It's not really worth reading, but you can take a glance at it if you want to see my thought process.

Spoiler: VCA BS

Hopkirk is a strong townread, so I'm marking him as TR in this analysis.

Map Wolf vs Numbers/Accountant

(henceforth referred to as Accountant) - Tv?

karnos vs Leon

- TvT

frog vs Vedith

- ?vT

Accountant vs frog

- ?v?

Players who haven't been gladiated:

Dunnstral
Hopkirk
Magna

Map Wolf (T):

karnos (T), Leon (T), Vedith (T), Hopkirk (TR)

Accountant (?):

frog (?)

Not voting:

Dunnstral (?), Magna (?)

karnos (T):

Magna (?), frog (?), Vedith (T), Hopkirk (TR)

Leonshade (T):

Accountant (?), Dunnstral (?)

frog (?):

Magna (?), Leon (T)

Vedith (T):

Accountant (?), Dunnstral (?), Hopkirk (TR)

Currently, I believe that the scumteam is either Dunn/frog or Magna/Accountant. I don't think that Dunn & Accountant are scumbuddies (read my previous post). Accountant & frog are not the scum pair (or this is a really bad gambit...). Magna/frog is possible, but his vote/read on frog doesn't feel like a bus to me. Magna/Dunn is only possible if Magna has been bussing Dunn this entire game.

Note that the pairs I've lined up have never voted on the same lines, or for each other (except Dunn for frog briefly today).

I don't have a scumread on Magna, but he has a strong scum game so I'm paranoid about him. That said, Dunn has no interest in solving this game and has repeatedly evaded both the scum gladiate, as well as any player who has a scumread on him being gladiated. This theory is what I'm going after first.

[Leonshade]

VOTE: frog

That's L-1.

[Leonshade]

@Hopkirk:

Do you have finished games with Dunn & with Magna? I'd also like to know your read on Magna.

[Leonshade]

dayvig: magna

[Leonshade]

VC

[Leonshade]

@Hopkirk:

Do you have finished games with Dunn & with Magna? I'd also like to know your read on Magna.

I'd still like an answer to the Dunn part of this question.

[Leonshade]

@Hopkirk:

Alright.

@Dunn:

Are you still advocating for an NL? Because it's not happening, either we get a frog flip or you start giving us some damn good reasons to lynch Accountant instead.

[Leonshade]

@Hopkirk:

Alright.

@Dunn:

Are you still advocating for an NL? Because it's not happening, either we get a frog flip or you start giving us some damn good reasons to lynch Accountant instead.

"I don't want my buddy to die" isn't a damn good reason.

[Leonshade]

If scum was Magna/me, or anyone, and Dunn was town and scum wanted them lynched, there's way better options than the replacement to do that. Hopkirk, Magna & I all scumread Dunn coming to this day, yet none of the three was chosen. Even before that, Vedith scumread Dunn and scum didn't gladiate him, frog was gladiated and he picked Vedith (picking off the most easily mislynchable townie that was scumreading Dunn...).

If Dunn was town, I really don't know what would be going through his head to want an NL. Scum gets a free kill, then arranges a mislynch anyway? No one's scumreading Hopkirk, scum could just NK him and leave us with no new information. If we lynch frog, every townie scumreading frog/Dunn has to rethink the game. Which option do you think is more likely to lead to a town victory?

[Leonshade]

Since Dunn isn't interested in gamesolving, I'll help Accountant read up Dunn's case.

Dunn is calling me out on flip-flopping here, here (which I explain better here and here) and here. The first two were on D1, the last on D3.

[Leonshade]

This has nothing to do with anyone's alignment but I love that Hopkirk has been the hammerer every single day thus far.

[Leonshade]

Cant get wifi to work post might not go through

Still on VLA picked 3 mins before deadline

Thought about Hop switch to frog looks like a bus, panic picked Accountant though

[Leonshade]

@Mod:

I will be on V/LA September 4th-11th & 15th-20th. While I won't have much in the way of internet access on the second trip (15th-20th), I should have semi-regular internet on the first trip. I won't be requesting replacement, but I'll keep you updated if something changes.

Leonshade has been prodded.

???

V/LA over by the way, I will contribute to the game tomorrow.

Please bold V/LA notices so that I don't miss them.
V/LA does not affect prods, however such prods will not contribute to your threshold for replacement purposes.

-Bnl

[Leonshade]

Ah, the rules say that V/LA has no impact on prods. This is going to be a bit of a problem, as I'll be gone 15th-20th. We can't really play around it, either, the deadline being the way it is. I should have limited WIFI, though, so I think I'll at least be able to get a pick in, provided I am gladiated.

@Hopkirk:

I've read everything thus far, except your PBA. Accountant's behavior today looks, to me, very similar to the way Vedith played D3, which led to their lynch. What I'm referring to is their lack of self-defense and the will to spend their time telling people to lynch their scumtell instead of finding reasons to lynch the other gladiate. This has not stopped Accountant from looking like the likely lynch, either, so it's not like they're using it as a weird scum gambit. Hell, it got Vedith lynched, so it would be a bad gambit to begin with.

This is especially concerning since you hammered Vedith after I defended him on the same grounds. Can you explain how you read Accountant's behavior? If scum, why aren't they trying to get me lynched?

[Leonshade]

So like I said before, I didn't have much time to reassess my reads before making my pick. I wasn't here at all during D5, then I found out that Dunn flipped town, and found out that I was the gladiator shortly before deadline. While Dunn flipping town should've made me re-evaluate all my reads, with the little time I had I decided to stick with whom I had found the next most likely scum beforehand, Accountant. I had started to have suspicions about Hopkirk, but as I had townread him so heavily prior, I decided to go with what I felt in my gut was the "safe" pick instead of going against my prior reads.

But now I'm fairly convinced that Accountant is town. Their play resembles Vedith's D3 game in motivation, and it doesn't feel like a weird scum gambit, either. Even more unlikely is D4 being a scum gambit, especially when it would've been so easy to get Dunn mislynched D4.

What sticks out to me most is that the only player that seems concerned about dying is Hopkirk. Accountant is on the chopping block but doesn't care, while Hopkirk, for all his accusations of everyone else playing for tomorrow, seems to be the most worried about tomorrow. For someone scumreading Accountant, Hopkirk seems really worried about LYLO. Hopkirk is cracking under pressure despite not being the lynch for today, which tells me that he knows that there's going to be another Day.

I read Accountant/frog as almost impossible and Magna/frog as unlikely. I now think that I was correct about the first one, and I'm fairly confident in the latter. I did not even consider Hopkirk for scum while making my reads, which I now know was a mistake. I was really confident in frog/Dunn being the scumteam after frog flipped, so Dunn flipping town threw me for a loop, but now I see the one possibility I refused to consider: frog/Hopkirk.

I will be rereading some stuff, and I would prefer to keep this Day going until I've done so. I have a feeling that if we lynch Accountant, I will be the gladiate again, as picking the V/LA for gladiate worked out so well this Day. It's harder for me to figure out what an NL would cause, so I think a lynch would still be preferable for town.

[Leonshade]

Scum pretending to lose interest in the game. You played well but kinda blew it today, Hopkirk.

[Leonshade]

@Leon, look at what magna excluded from that quote and tell me he's town.

He didn't admit that he couldn't read sarcasm, doesn't make him scum.

Look, your "town is so dumb I hate this game now" shtick is scummier than anything Magna has done all game. I've seen scum!Magna lead town into a mislynch before, he's good. I'm paranoid as hell about Magna, but you're far scummier than him. Between you hammering Vedith over frog, insta-hammering Dunn and your vote on frog looking like a bus, you have to admit that you look like the most likely scum. Meanwhile, for Accountant to be scum means that him and his buddy decided to do a suicidal gambit. Magna being town means that he bussed frog, which is more likely, but his behavior looked far less like a bus than yours.

[Leonshade]

Lynch Accountant, let's get to the endgame.

[Leonshade]

After this game, I'll never stop being paranoid of Magna! Well played, especially the frog bus was well executed.