Micro 812 - The Arena II - Game Over
-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
-
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23135
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
-
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
-
-
Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
- Goodfellas
- Goodfellas
- Posts: 40417
- Joined: April 2, 2016
- Pronoun: he/him
BlackStar, ZZZX, ceejayvinoya, ceejayvinoya, Irrelephant11, Something_SmartIn post 444, Irrelephant11 wrote:
I will want this, yesIn post 438, Dunnstral wrote:If you want to know anything else like why I picked SS tonight and not you or who my gladiates would be or why I can answer tomorrow
Day 2 BlackStar because when I tried to talk to him about the wagons he basically ignored me and hammered
I explained why I picked ZZZX on day 3
Ceejay on day 4 because I was looking at the people who voted scioness sajj day 1
You day 5 because you seemed most likely to me by poe
Today I picked Something_Smart because I really didn't think you would pick me because I didn't think you'd think you could beat me so I went for Something_Smart - I did have some suspicion on him yesterday (I'd say around 25%) that I just never voiced because I didn't think it was beneficial (you 2 already both seemed to sr him more than me so there was no use revealing my thoughts to). Like I said yesterday he didn't want me to lose my scumread on you and wanted to end things with me gladiating you for his win.
This isn't true, nobody was talking about ZZZX, there was a sort of consensus that ceejay was getting lynchedIn post 440, Something_Smart wrote:
I'm not going to try to refute this entire thing, I'll just point out that this is true for Dunn as well (against ZZZX).In post 438, Dunnstral wrote:-When SS was gladiator it was against ceejay who was the de facto lynch - in other words super safe for him-
-
Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
- Goodfellas
- Goodfellas
- Posts: 40417
- Joined: April 2, 2016
- Pronoun: he/him
What do you mean it's the only reason you kept me alive? When did you ever have the chance to lynch me? Because it looks like you're thinking about gladiates in your head hereIn post 449, Something_Smart wrote:I mean, it's a wifomy game. You can't really avoid arguments like that.
I think the key point of this game was Day 3, where Dunn was chosen as gladiator after saying he suspected me. This was after Not_Mafia was dead, so if I were scum and Dunn had chosen me, I would have almost certainly lost on the spot. Dunn himself pointed this out, which was the reason that both of us were left alone. That's really the only reason I didn't consider Dunn as scum; because if scum he essentially towncleared me for no reason by doing that. And that's a reason equally valid from an objective perspective-- if he were scum he would have just made things mechanically MUCH harder on himself.
This logic was valid right up until the dawn of this day, when Dunn essentially retracted his claim that I am clear from that pick. Since he is no longer calling me town for it, that objective reason why EVERYONE should have been townreading him was made invalid, since the motive in keeping me around when there is suspicion on me is very clearly EASIER for scum-Dunn if he does plan to eventually add me back to the lynchpool.
I am by no means saying that he would not have done this as town, but that was the only reasonIkept him alive, at least. Now that it's invalid, it requires no assumptions of extraordinary play, gambiting, or guessing to assume that Dunn is scum; whereas, to assume that I'm scum still assumes that I gladiated into the only person who expressed a scumread on me, and a fairly decisive scumread at that, in the hope that he would get out-WIFOMed and target someone else. (Not to mention that Flubber was chosen D2 who had ALSO expressed some suspicion on me.)
Is there anything that you think makes Dunn towny?
There's another reason I'm townread it's because day 1 I voted NM and I'll outline it here:
This is the 1st vote, it's 4 to lynch
My vote here brings it to 2-0 for not_mafia to be lynchedIn post 118, Dunnstral wrote:
I know there's a lot to take in but let us know when you've processed it all.In post 106, ZZZX wrote:Had issues connecting to MS, finally solved today. let me read up.
Even if you're town if you're going to get picked again and do dumb challenges I don't see why we should keep you around and I'm not seeing a case against scionessNot_Mafia wrote:And then I decided to challenge him
VOTE: not_mafia
What happens next couldn't have been predicted: 3 town players vote scioness sajj one after another and derail the NM wagon that was gaining momentum.
I reach out to Blackstar and ask him what he thinks, he brushes me off and hammers scioness sajj
Something_Smart is kind of frozen during this whole thing, he doesn't seem to have anything relevant to say regarding the wagons here-
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23135
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
I mean, I won't pretend I remember the specific reason why.In post 453, Irrelephant11 wrote:Anything else you can think of to clear things up for me more?
I think I just reread their ISOs and decided I liked Mylo's more.-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
-
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23135
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
Oh, I see.
Is there anything you want me to talk about more regarding what happened Day 3? I think what happened there, keeping in mind that Dunn challenged me today, gives you plenty of information. I don't know how well you know me, but I'm certainly not one to rely on major mind games, especially if I had to wait for someone else to point it out.
Like I said before with Flubber, I don't think Dunn's bussing of Not_Mafia on day 1 means much (since Not_Mafia is mostly a deadweight partner and low-content people tend to be lynched in nightless games), and in fact it might show that he knew more than he was supposed to, since voting Not_Mafia there really didn't make much sense.-
-
Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
- Goodfellas
- Goodfellas
- Posts: 40417
- Joined: April 2, 2016
- Pronoun: he/him
This:In post 457, Irrelephant11 wrote:SS my question was more “what other information helps me solve this game?”
Dunn if you can think of anything else go for it
I think he thinks he is going to have to go against me at this point and is setting up for itIn post 268, Something_Smart wrote:In my experience Dunn is both very willing to bus and good at making it look natural.
I don't see any bus warning signs but I also don't see anything that makes it unlikely.-
-
Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
- Goodfellas
- Goodfellas
- Posts: 40417
- Joined: April 2, 2016
- Pronoun: he/him
In post 416, Something_Smart wrote:And I don't think Flubber deserves much credit for challenging Not_Mafia, because Not_Mafia is someone who rarely gets near endgame as scum. (In fact it would be really weird to challenge Not_Mafia after it was the consensus that Not_Mafia was town for being chosen, so maybe it does in fact demonstrate extra information.)
And thisSomething_Smart wrote:Like I said before with Flubber, I don't think Dunn's bussing of Not_Mafia on day 1 means much (since Not_Mafia is mostly a deadweight partner and low-content people tend to be lynched in nightless games), and in fact it might show that he knew more than he was supposed to, since voting Not_Mafia there really didn't make much sense.
You should look at days 1 and 2 when the NM wagon was forming and see how SS acted towards that-
-
BNL Micro Madness
- Micro Madness
- Micro Madness
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: September 15, 2015
- Location: EDT+12
Mod notes:
With 1 vote in play it takes 1 to lynch
The deadline is on 6 August 7am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2018-08-06 07:00:00)
-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
I interrupted my own re-reading to gather these thoughts about the ideal picks for each of you last night if scum:
Something_Scum's options last night:
1 Choose Irrelephant, who's more likely to gladiate SS. Dunn might lynch Irrelephant. 4/10 [rating here is how good of choice this would be for this player]
2 Choose Dunn, who's more likely to gladiate Irrelephant. If not, Irrelephant is more likely to lynch SS. 7.5/10
3 Be the challenger, gladiate Irrelephant. Dunn is more likely to lynch Irrelephant because "SS was the challenger" WIFOM & expressed reads. 6/10 (+1 is 7/10)
---This requires the idea that SS would be able to argue that scum!Irrelephant would choose SS as the challenger, which... I guess works. +1/10
4 Be the challenger, gladiate Dunn. Probably loses to Dunn on this one. 4/10
---This requires the idea that SS would be able to argue that scum!Dunnstral would choose SS as the challenger, which... doesn't work as well. No point change.
Scumstral's choices last night:
1 Choose Irrelephant, who almost certainly gladiates SS, unless WIFOMrelephant aims it back at Dunn (ftr I did gladiate SS last night). Even then, a medium-good shot at winning against Irrelephant. 8.5/10
2 Choose SS, who probably chooses Dunnstral. Probably 50/50 shot here, maybe slightly better. 6/10
3 Be the challenger, gladiate Irrelephant. Kind of a weird one, includes a lot of wifom, maybe Dunnstral argues out of this one and wins. 5/10 (-1 is 4/10)
---Requires being able to argue the idea that scum!Irrelephant would choose Dunnstral as challenger, which really doesn't make much sense. -1/10
4 Be the challenger, gladiate SS. A good shot at winning against SS, given what I've said before this game day. 7/10 (+1 is 8/10)
---Requires being able to argue the idea that scum!SS would choose Dunnstral as challenger, which makes a lot of sense, actually. +1/10
This analysis did not get me as far as I wanted it to, but it does suggest that Dunn being the challenger is best choice Scum!SS could have made, while scum!Dunn only makes this choice if he thinks the benefit of wifom outweighs the loss of a bit of win equity (i.e. this was Dunnstral's second-best choice if scum, which only makes sense as a wifomy move).
Feel free to point out what I missed here-
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23135
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
I don't agree with the assumption that I would have seen Dunn as more likely to challenge you. He voted Flubber which at least showed some indication of townreading you, and he never really made his opinion on either of us clear.
And I definitely would not have trusted Dunn to gladiate who I expected him to, especially with what he pulled on day 3, and indeed it does seem right from town!Dunn's perspective to gladiate me, since scum!you would never make him the challenger and risk having ME decide between you two after you just spent all that time calling me scum.
It seemed fairly clear that the most likely challenge would be between me and you, and as scum I would have trusted in my ability to out-argue you more than my ability to out-WIFOM Dunn. If I weren't still sticking to my random plan (and it would probably have been smart to abandon it at that point), I would have made myself gladiator and challenged you.
I don't know why he didn't pick you, but I can guess that he probably expected a quick win. (Which I do have to thank you for not giving to him.) It's just a question of, does he think you will scumread me more with no discussion or with discussion. And if the answer to that question is unclear, then it's equally good for him to make you the gladiator as it is for him to challenge me-- both will result in a win if you ultimately end up scumreading me.
It's definitely plausible that he could believe that you have more doubt than you let on, but that he can make a more convincing case than I can today and remove some of that doubt for when you vote.
That all make sense? Was just trying to get all my thoughts out, and if it got a bit jumbled I can definitely clarify.-
-
Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
- Goodfellas
- Goodfellas
- Posts: 40417
- Joined: April 2, 2016
- Pronoun: he/him
There's a sort of cog-dis here where SS argues that he would have never made me gladiator day 3 but is also still arguing that they would have randomized the gladiator choice every dayIn post 464, Something_Smart wrote:If I weren't still sticking to my random plan (and it would probably have been smart to abandon it at that point), I would have made myself gladiator and challenged you.-
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23135
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
SS do you agree with this ideaIn post 464, Something_Smart wrote:he can make a more convincing case than I can today-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
-
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23135
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
Not sure. Ultimately it depends on what you consider convincing, I guess.In post 467, Irrelephant11 wrote:
SS do you agree with this ideaIn post 464, Something_Smart wrote:he can make a more convincing case than I can today
In terms of evidence, there is certainly a lot, mostly small things, that Dunnstral COULD point to, particularly vote-related since I'm very conservative with votes, something which becomes especially clear in a nightless setup where most people are very liberal with them.
I do know that, if I can get talking, I'm pretty good at getting myself correctly townread as town. And I have really one piece of evidence, which I think is huge but that Dunn might not have necessarily thought YOU would consider it so major. And I'm a proponent of the idea that a case should make itself; I shouldn't need to walk you through EVERYTHING because it's so easy to construct a narrative like that as scum. I've given you what should probably be enough to make you see what I do-- but if it's not, I'm happy to explain stuff more.
So whether my case is more convincing is going to depend on... what you are convinced by, really. I bet most people familiar with me would have identified me as town by now, and I'm sure there are some people who would have voted me without hesitation at daystart.-
-
Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_BalancedHe/him
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Somewhat_Balanced
- Posts: 23135
- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Upstate New York
I guess I got distracted and didn't quite finish my thought here. You are obviously neither, but I don't really know how much you understand my playstyle and way of thinking. If you understand it well, then I would expect my case to be very convincing; if not, then I would not be so optimistic.In post 469, Something_Smart wrote:So whether my case is more convincing is going to depend on... what you are convinced by, really. I bet most people familiar with me would have identified me as town by now, and I'm sure there are some people who would have voted me without hesitation at daystart.-
-
BNL Micro Madness
- Micro Madness
- Micro Madness
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: September 15, 2015
- Location: EDT+12
Mod notes:
With 1 vote in play it takes 1 to lynch
The deadline is on 6 August 7am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2018-08-06 07:00:00)
-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Why did you think this dunn? Here are Blackstar's posts at the time:In post 60, Dunnstral wrote:
had the same thought about post 31In post 47, Scioness Sajj wrote:
Are you assuming NM is town?In post 31, ZZZX wrote:NM is both one of the easiest yet hardest players to lynch in general. So I am expecting someone who picked him day 1 to know enough about him.
Otherwise it's a weird pick
In other news Blackstar is scummy
In post 10, BlackStar wrote:HiIn post 27, BlackStar wrote:What's his reputation?In post 40, BlackStar wrote:
Pretty muchZZZX wrote:Well, I am more about waiting for something to happen at this point.
We can't vote so we can't really apply pressure yet..-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Wait yeah actually Dunnstral who did you pick N1? You talk about picking blackstar for his D2 play but he's the first in your list? And then you only talk about picking ceej once but he's in your list twice? I'm confused in regards to your 454-
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6276
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.