Open 713: Jungle Republic [Game Over]

[Tchill13]

Paradox is a weird one there's not really anyone it implicates or points in a direction too.

This is wolf

I wouldn't be caught dead using wolf as a general term for scum

wilky killed TGP hunting for mafia, now he's deflecting

It seems way more likely that they killed paradox because he didn't give off much in terms of associations, as wilky and A50 alluded to.

What I don't much like is the lurky and sheeping quality that exists in Beefster/Laserguy, and wilky to a lesser extent, not to mention this:

Votecount 1.9

(3)

Dr Fanta - voted by: wilky, Beefster, LaserGuy.

(3)

Almost50 - voted by: Espeonage, TheGoldenParadox, skitter30.

(3)

wilky - voted by: Dr Fanta, Not_Mafia, Korina.

(2)

skitter30 - voted by: Thor665, Almost50.

(1)

Thor665 - voted by: Montosh.

With 12 players alive, 7 votes are needed for a majority. Only 6 votes are needed for a no lynch.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-03-01 17:30:00)

That that pairing was the basis for the Fanta wagon.

But Fanta actually went after wilky for no reason, other than the fact that he was high up on skitter's readlist and they didn't like the readlist, which seems totally bonkers to me. Wilky had some reason to vote for them.

LaserGuy and Beefster's votes were less reasonable. LaserGuy mostly voted to pressure people into consolidating votes onto wagons near deadlines, which rarely ends well for town. Beefster was just blatantly sheeping. I'd put money on scum there.

VOTE: LaserGuy

i was pretty worried about laser and beef being on the fanta wagon. Glad to see im not the only one.

[Thor665]

wilky, thor, almost, NM is my lynch pool. They're ALL on this.

IF almost flips anything other than town espeonage may not be town.

i was pretty worried about laser and beef being on the fanta wagon. Glad to see im not the only one.

[Tchill13]

What? Them being on that wagon makes me see them less as town. They're not in must lynch territory like the other 4 are yet.

[Tchill13]

I'm however not sold on wilky not just being petulent and bad. Bc thats p much what Fanta was.

agreed 110 percent.

especially after NM hops on wilky aftfer the "lol hammer"

ik i said wilky was in my lynch pool but his wagon grew disgustingly fast at the beginning of day 2. So i may have to rethink that one.

[Thor665]

But that's literally just listing everyone on the wagon at that point, so - yeah, duh, town lynch, lynch off the wagon.
The core logic makes perfect sense.

Pegging out your top four and ruling out two *also* makes sense.

But then acting happy someone else is calling out your two rule outs?
That doesn't make sense.
You ruled them out for a reason.
You shouldn't be happy they are getting pushed on unless your ruleout was daft.

[Tchill13]

ok im caught up. i retract my statement about espeonage being scum if almost flips scum because he opened the day back on almost.

[Tchill13]

But that's literally just listing everyone on the wagon at that point, so - yeah, duh, town lynch, lynch off the wagon.
The core logic makes perfect sense.

Pegging out your top four and ruling out two *also* makes sense.

But then acting happy someone else is calling out your two rule outs?
That doesn't make sense.
You ruled them out for a reason.
You shouldn't be happy they are getting pushed on unless your ruleout was daft.

i ruled them out because they were my only two town reads on the wagon. they also had the most "silent" votes on the wagon. From what i had seen i wouldn't expect laser to be on the fanta wagon through the lynch when there were better lynch options. Beef made a few posts that made sense but he's doing an awful good job of being TR'd.

[Thor665]

I'm not debating why you ruled them out.
I'm debating the logic of cheering them being attacked after you ruled them out.

[Thor665]

It'd be like me saying "Awfully happy to lynch Skitter or Tchill today from the pool of Skitter, TChill, Almost50.
Ad then later quoting someone going "Almost50 is soooo scum' and me posting 'yeah, super happy Almost50 is getting attention as a scumspect, he deserves that!'

It
makes
no
sense.

[Tchill13]

VOTE: Not mafia

will vote A50 also but NM's play of lynching fanta then voting wilky makes a lot of since if he's scum that doesn't get a NK.

I feel good about espeonage being town with montosh. Im back and forth on wilky and i lean town on Laser.

Beef is a hard null with skitter and thor (skitter and thor seemed like a lot of noise and walls i didn't want to pick through.)

I'd say A50, NM, Korina should have been lynched day 1 before Fanta in that order.

I voted NM over A50 here because of the beginning of day 2. NM hops right back on Wilky after hammering fanta and the wilky wagon grows blindingly fast.

[Tchill13]

It'd be like me saying "Awfully happy to lynch Skitter or Tchill today from the pool of Skitter, TChill, Almost50.
Ad then later quoting someone going "Almost50 is soooo scum' and me posting 'yeah, super happy Almost50 is getting attention as a scumspect, he deserves that!'

It
makes
no
sense.

i don't disagree with you. Am i supposed to 100 percent explain my every detailed though on catch up? The reason i didn't is because i didn't want to explain every little thing. I agree it looks alarming and I'd question it too but i think it looks weird because of the way i went about my catch up. Had i been playing in real time I think it wouldn't look as bad.

Laser seems to be playing a game that makes sense so far so i was alarmed he didn't give anymore attention to NM over Fanta. He actually seems to defend NM at the end of day 1/ start of day 2. So that cought my eye.

then beef has carefully piscked his spots on what to comment on and i honestly forgot he voted fanta.

[Tchill13]

seems like half the player list has pointed a finger at NM by this time but hasn't laid a vote there. That's where i'd like to start.

[Tchill13]

Final Votecount

(7 LYNCHED)

Dr Fanta - voted by: wilky, Beefster, LaserGuy, Thor665, Almost50, TheGoldenParadox, Not_Mafia.

(4)

Thor665 - voted by: Montosh, Korina, Dr Fanta, skitter30.

(1)

Almost50 - voted by: Espeonage.

Dr Fanta has been lynched!

wilky, thor, almost, NM is my lynch pool. They're ALL on this.

IF almost flips anything other than town espeonage may not be town.

But that's literally just listing everyone on the wagon at that point, so - yeah, duh, town lynch, lynch off the wagon.
The core logic makes perfect sense.

Pegging out your top four and ruling out two *also* makes sense.

But then acting happy someone else is calling out your two rule outs?
That doesn't make sense.
You ruled them out for a reason.
You shouldn't be happy they are getting pushed on unless your ruleout was daft.

ok on complete catch up so we are clear...

i'm actually more comfortable clearing wilky on the lynching wagon compared to beef or laser.

NM, A50, thor would be the ones i want lynched from the lynching wagon in that order.

[Tchill13]

VOTE: Beefster

It's a good policy lynch, and, hey, maybe a wolf or scum to boot.

VOTE: Thor665
No protown player does this in RVS. Semi-serious vote.

VOTE: Paradox

Trying to make something out of nothing

VOTE: Wilky
I understand it's supposed to be a joke, but chainsaw defensing someone the third post of the game? I could see you as scum not wanting to be on a mislynch wagon that doesn't go anywhere and trying to get onto who you know is a very mislynchable player, then claim that you started it as a joke and it shouldn't have be taken seriously when suspicion is on you.

So, my entire thing about that, is that I honestly have never seen town trying to set up arguments where they know the exact outcome. It seems like something mafia/wolf would do.

How would I know what the outcome would be?
You're, like Skitter, accussing me of being a mindreader/master manipulator with zero evidence to support said claim, and then acting like it's a valid call.

@Korina - I knew the outcome would be you missing the question, but let's go with this a second time.

@Korina - third time's the charm?

You said so yourself.

Also, I hardclaim Citizen rn. I'm a fucking citizen once again, and literally out of half the rolelist being non-citizen roles, I get citizen again. I really don't care if I'm ML'd d1, happens all the time, and idgaf tbh.

This doesn't look like real frustration. Geniune frustration looks towny. This seems more "I'm a VT. Screw this" in the most exaggerated way possible.

This little bit looks pretty genuine and also makes me think it's pretty clear that if Thor flips red, then BuJaber is in the clear.

Scratch this, still trying to get into the multiball mindset. Fml.

@Pepper
How would this change your read on BuJaber/Almost50?
Are you thinking you'd be left with no read or a townlean/read
Or could it perhaps be a MvW?

I don't exactly want to cause a head v head argument but I'm curious for the sake of the game what your thoughts are on this potential flip
- Fanta

Can you chat in your PTs about this and not clog up the thread thanks

Right, so i've just iso'd Laserguy and his iso does not read as active lurker at all so for now

VOTE: Dr Fanta

I agree. I'll sheep this.

VOTE: Dr Fanta

The sheeping here seems E X T R E M E L Y oppurtunistic. I'm FoSing Beefster for this.


VOTE: Almost50
This is the most fake and horrible slot out there.

My lynch pool is like this: A50 > Wilky > Beefster.
If A50 is town, Esp is almost def scum. If A50's scum, Espeonage is almost def town. (Yes, I know we're in multiball).

thor, wilky and A50 were all on the lynching wagon and were all voted by Paradox.

Seeing how i believe wilky is town because of the beginning of day 2 im MORE confident thor and A50 are scum.

I guess wilky could be scum/WW but he isn't the same alignment as NM unless they're both town and i don't believe that to be the case.

[skitter30]

And I would note that I'm not debating you to convince you.

I'm debating you to show holes to convince others.

-> Given that people aren't really reading posts from either of us, this is obviously working super well

-> If you're not trying to talk to me then I don't really see the utility of continuing the argument tbh

If other people want me to clarify anything lmk

--------------

NM, A50, thor would be the ones i want lynched from the lynching wagon in that order.

+1 (although I'd go Thor > A50 > NM > wilky = beef > laserguy)

[LaserGuy]

Laser seems to be playing a game that makes sense so far so i was alarmed he didn't give anymore attention to NM over Fanta. He actually seems to defend NM at the end of day 1/ start of day 2. So that cought my eye.

I have played with NM once before (him and the Viomi half of Fanta are the only people I've played with here, actually), and his play looks identical to that game, where he was Town. I was told in that game by the people who had played with him before that this was standard play for him and almost everything he does is NAI, but that he'd sort himself out later. Maybe there's some subtle differences in his Town/scum game, but I don't see it, so his slot was sitting in my null pile for just about all of D1. There's one post that I think is more likely to come from Town!NM (this one), and one or two that could be scum indicative (here and his lack of response to this), but beyond that I had nothing on him. The only reason that I would have been voting him D1 would have been a policy lynch, and I generally don't like policy lynching people for their playstyle.

[Tchill13]

policy lynching isnt a good idea but lynching players you know are hard to sort and will have a spot in your lynch pool for most of the game is a good idea. Most people seemed to agree he was in the lynch pool yet wouldn't vote...

[Montosh]

I'll point out that the last game I played was with NM as scum partners, and in that game he spent the entire time tunnelling one slot and managed to fly under the radar. Similar to now.

The only difference is that in that game he went after a much more lynchbait slot than this time. Hard to meta after 1 game, but that was my experience.

[Tchill13]

im not even meta'ing the guy. if his name wasn't NM it wouldn't matter. Im judging him off play alone here.

[Montosh]

But his name is NM and it does matter. If it were most anyone else I'd be pushing that lynch. But the meta is relevant.

[Beefster]

Tchill can be town.

[Beefster]

That feels too scummy to be scummy.

Surely with your join date you can't be that dumb.

Will ISO Thor.

[Tchill13]

But his name is NM and it does matter. If it were most anyone else I'd be pushing that lynch. But the meta is relevant.

i disagree.

[Beefster]

Eh... Too much skitter v Thor to sort out... At this point, I think they're both scum.

Oh man, Skitter set me up in an argument where people would have to choose sides!

Skitter is, once again, creating a case based around calling scumhunting scummy. Even in the theory world where A50 and I are scum - she's accusing us of thinking;

That Fanta was scum.

VOTE: Skitter

Thor has this tunnel thing going and is pretty much just going after low-hanging fruit aside from that.

VOTE: Thor

[Almost50]

VOTE: Beefster

I've played with him before in THIS game, and he was a WW.

Spoiler: This is his ISO from that game

VOTE: dave
For suggesting a vote based on activity

UNVOTE: davesaz
Gut town read on dave.

VOTE: Kotoko Utsugi
Because I feel like it.

Right now..if I were to choose a scum team from this list, I would proably take a50 and dave...they are both active, townread...trying to game solve (which could be faked within their playstyle), would have no prob bussing me (an expendable scum member) to stay strong...and are currently pretty widely townread.

For those asking about how I play scum... (WARNING: SELF_META....I AM TRYING YO BE HONEST) I haven't had a recent scum game..However as town, I am known for posting without thinking...I know that once, I have voted the previous days lynch (I corrected it in the next post but still)....As thoughts come, they get written down.

For scum, I haven't played in a while, but when I came back to this site, I bought a whiteboard to draft out ideas as scum....my posts will probably be more thought out.

I do this because I think it is the most valuable way to post for the different factions...For town, my posts may seem scummy, I may defend someone very hard, but it will always be because I believe it and I think that is what town needs.

As scum, I will put more thought because I need to hide, and that's just the way it will be.

This and #84 look a little bit off to me. I don't really follow the logic.

Meta defense (when there's nothing to defend) is strange. It's almost like he's trying to WIFOM with the gambler's fallacy.

VOTE: momo
Serious vote.

Honestly I'd be pretty cool with speedlynching in this setup. I have a strong suspicion that the longer the day goes on, the more scumsided it'll eventually get. Masons and monks are gonna get pretty obvious over time. Plus, ideal strategy is for mafia and wolves to shoot town (and not destroy each other). I'd rather not give them more time to figure out the entire setup.

So yeah let's speedlynch Beefster.

I don't follow this line of reasoning. The scumteams already have a pretty low chance of killing the other scum if done completely randomly. I don't really see how a short day makes things any different.

The way to win is to get 4 correct lynches in a row. Short days do not help achieve that.

VOTE: Mathdino
OMGUS, but I don't care.

I am thinking more clearly now. probably.

VOTE: momo
I think he's playing dumb on #100 and #127. wtf on #270. demands jay put their vote on me on #276
That's all for now.

fos: A50 for misrepresenting Archwing.
fos: JaydragonKing for being self-conscious about perceived alignment and voting/omgusing everybody like a force of chaos.

I'm fighting a losing battle here and I won't give you the pleasure of a longer day.

VOTE: Beefster

AWOOOOOO!!!
Go Werewolves!

Excluding the last vote (the self-hammer) he had voted 5 times on 4 different players, and none of them was his partner (Jaydragonking)

Spoiler: This is his D1 here:

VOTE: Beefster

It's a good policy lynch, and, hey, maybe a wolf or scum to boot.

Do I sense rage?

It's wellfounded tbh. My play over the last while has been lazy and aggravating.

VOTE: Espeonage
because I prefer Umbreon.

Looks like scum is already starting to come out of the woodworks. skitter, Korina, and Montosh are all pinging me.

VOTE: Korina

Paradox and wilky are town, I think. Very protown discussion coming from each. I'm more confident with wilky, but it's mostly gut at this point, so we'll see what happens.

It is opportunistic... because NM always plays like this?

What kind of answer is that? And why are you even answering for wilky?

I agree NM is null (though I'm still convinced there's a good chance of finding scum among the lurkers - even if people disagree) but how wilky jumped to that conclusion is beyond me. 2 votes is barely a wagon, and there were other choices with 2 votes too. NM can't possibly know that wilky would be the lynch today it's far too early.

I'm not answering for wilky. Where'd you get that idea? I can't really tell if the vote is opportunistic. And even if it is, I don't think it's AI in this situation.

You ask a lot of questions and I think Espeonage is onto something here.

VOTE: BuJaber

Now that's an opportunistic vote. Interpret it as you so desire.

Korina: oh come on. You've got a megapost (admittedly, I haven't really read it) and you've put most of us at null?

Seems like you're just spinning your wheels, but you clearly aren't going anywhere.

VOTE: Korina

It's real. At this point, I have played around 14 games. Excluding 4 of them, because one of them I replaced into confirmed scum slot, the other was a pure Jester game, the third one was late game, and VT wasn't a possibility that late in, and the last one because it was canned, I have rolled Citizen in over half of them. Probability would beg to differ at this point, that I would get a non-town role. I still haven't and that pisses me off to no end, because I want to finally play as fucking scum. 11H on ToS forums was the closest I've ever gotten to playing a legit scum game, and even if I played scum well that game, I highly doubt I would've won it. So, let's break down the rest of those games then: that leaves 10 games. 1 of them, I got BG. 1 of them, I got Arso (11H), 1 of them, I got vig, but because of someone else in thread, I got force-replaced. That leaves 7 games, this one included. I have played VT in 70% of all my fm games. You don't think I get sick and fucking tired of it, or at this point probability would be in my favor on a literal coin flip? I may be following the gambler's fallacy here, but I honestly think that probability would go my way at this point.

*Sigh*, I kind of believe this, at least enough not to want to lynch Korina right now. He's such lynchbait it's going to be a very low information flip regardless of his alignment.

I mean, he could be faking it, but without additional evidence, I think you're right about lynchbait.

Well then...

VOTE: Espeonage

He has a certain quality of lurkiness that I find suspicious. Also seems to be preoccupied with this being multiball IIRC.

Right, so i've just iso'd Laserguy and his iso does not read as active lurker at all so for now

VOTE: Dr Fanta

I agree. I'll sheep this.

VOTE: Dr Fanta

Again, 6 votes on 4 different people (Vote on Fanta replaces the self-hammer)

Spoiler: And this is hid D2 so far

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Also, I realized that kill associations would imply wolf in this game, so it's not necessarily scummy to faction-hunt in this particular case.

I will agree that wilky's opening comment is fishy. Fishy enough to vote? For now.

VOTE: wilky

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Eh... Too much skitter v Thor to sort out... At this point, I think they're both scum.

Oh man, Skitter set me up in an argument where people would have to choose sides!

Skitter is, once again, creating a case based around calling scumhunting scummy. Even in the theory world where A50 and I are scum - she's accusing us of thinking;

That Fanta was scum.

VOTE: Skitter

Thor has this tunnel thing going and is pretty much just going after low-hanging fruit aside from that.

VOTE: Thor

4 votes on 3 people already, NONE OF WHICH were voted by him yesterday.

Conclusion: Beefster is SCUM. His partner(s) is/are in Montosh/skitter30/LaserGuy