Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Davsto]

Sorry am busy so can't make a substantial post

Still think Ran is scum

Noticing low activity (I know, pot meets kettle), and I'm guessing people feel a lot like we've already won? I know that it seems likely but effort should still be put in and cockiness is a risk to take. Remember we do only have two lynches left to hit a scum because of Lycan's situation, so it's not as easy as it could have been.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 4.3

Dunnstral(2)

~ ActionDan(4), LicketyQuickety(16)

Ranmaru(1)

~ Davsto(9)


Not Voting (5): Gamma Emerald(7), Shadoweh(7), Thestatusquo(4), Dunnstral(2), Ranmaru(4)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-19 04:22:42)

MOD NOTES

Speed issues again.
I am aware of some latency in the requests.
Amazon did something to the box that I can’t check until I get home but it seems faster now. Down to 109.
It’s been something I am looking into.

[Gamma Emerald]

Currently working through CES ISO for associatives, here's what I'm thinking so far
Marquis/Shadoweh looks town, CES seems to have been trying to mislynch that slot the whole game
Shea might be town, CES defends Shea a lot, but never says Shea is town, just says Shea is "Sheaey"

[Thestatusquo]

I have not much I want to say. I think the final scum are Ranmaru and Dunn. If I'm wrong on one of them the third scum is probably marquis. Maybe Gamma but I doubt it.

From a POE perspective I have very strong town reads on:
ActionDan
LQ

I have a reasonably strong town read on:
Davsto

I have a middling town read on:
Gamma
Marquis/shadoweh (based primarily on CES hammering on him for the whole game and the fact that he was continually put up for lynch which suggests as NSG suggested implies he's been a pretty continual ML target.)

My preference would be to lynch Dunn, and see if that ends the game, then reevaluate tomorrow and see if Ranmaru's actions this game are still as bad as I think they are.

Davsto do you not think Dunn is scum, and if so why not? If so, is it just that you think ran is most likely?

[Davsto]

I think Dunn could easily be scum

but generally speaking I always feel more confident of a scumread if they also have a lot of posts because I have a lot clearer picture of them in my mind whereas I often find it too easy to scumread low-posters without having rly thought much about it yk? It's hard to explain but I think this gets the gist of it across

[LicketyQuickety]

BTW,

I want to take this time to apologize to everyone I was an asshole to, which is probably the majority of the players in this game.

[Shadoweh]

I think Dunn could easily be scum

but generally speaking I always feel more confident of a scumread if they also have a lot of posts because I have a lot clearer picture of them in my mind whereas I often find it too easy to scumread low-posters without having rly thought much about it yk? It's hard to explain but I think this gets the gist of it across

To be fair low-posting is scummy in itself so it's not surprising to be biased there. Sometimes a spade is just a sped though. I really hope people aren't low-posting out of a victory malaise, I'd think its more the modkill is a downer.

For the sake of which I/We'd prefer at the moment we feel more confident Ranmaru is scum (sleepy still thinks LQ has some bad interactions but I think it's less likely and I'm the one driving here.)

[Gamma Emerald]

Can anyone tell me they're scumreading Ran for something other than him defending CES?

[Davsto]

The way he briefly dipped into the wagon midday feels very awkward idk if it's a failed bus or a token attempt to look good if he flips red?

But his behaviour as a whole yesterday felt very,, off compared to the first two days. I haven't rechecked in detail but my instincts feel like he was riding being heavily townread day one and two and got a little carried away maybe? Again that's mostly me just thinking off the top of my head I haven't looked properly

[Ranmaru]

I want Davsto, Shea, and Quick to each give their case on why they think I'm scum and should go. I actually want this day to be RANMARU v MARQUIS rather then just 'DUNNSTRAL DAY'. Then I'll try to explain my mindset and try to show who the real scum are. I know I can show you all that everything I did was pro-town. Ask me anything.

[Gamma Emerald]

I want Davsto, Shea, and Quick to each give their case on why they think I'm scum and should go. I actually want this day to be RANMARU v MARQUIS rather then just 'DUNNSTRAL DAY'. Then I'll try to explain my mindset and try to show who the real scum are. I know I can show you all that everything I did was pro-town. Ask me anything.

Marquis/Shadoweh should be off the table from now on, I ISOed CES ctrl-f'ing Marquis and the actions of CES towards Marquis are not scum theatre, they those of a scum trying to push low-hanging-fruit

[Ranmaru]

i think it was a likely bus. That's why CES wasn't pushing it hard and was fine with letting other pushes precede his. Think, his play towards that slot just made you town read it. Which is beneficial to scum.

[LicketyQuickety]

We are lynching Dunn or myself today.

Reason: Dunn is Scum, and I am the only vote on CES that could have been a bus.

[Ranmaru]

No, it's Marquis or Me. That's the most beneficial direction for town right now.

[Thestatusquo]

No, it's Marquis or Me. That's the most beneficial direction for town right now.

I'm sorry but you have zero credibility.

feel free to vote for who you think is scum but in no world are we letting you dictate today's lynch.

[Ranmaru]

I mean, focusing on Dunn today is a bit lazy. At least fulfill my request so I can explain myself to you all as best I can. For example, if Dunn were lynched and flipped town today, would your truly reconsider your read on me the next day? I think not. Yet if you focused on one of ME v Marquis, if somehow I were mislynched, it would at least give town a ton of information (due to wagons) and make others accountable for their actions towards my slot. I also think Marquis is town's best chance at victory, since that might be a lynch town may actually agree on. Otherwise we may just lose. I want you all to try harder.

[ActionDan]

UNVOTE:

request granted.

[ActionDan]

I ISOed CES ctrl-f'ing Marquis and the actions of CES towards Marquis are not scum theatre, they those of a scum trying to push low-hanging-fruit

I disagree this is clear at all.

The more I read back the more I like CES's case on Marquis (when it was made), strange as that may sound. It sounds true. Previous to that, I think it's possible he was holding back like giving morsels and platitudes that also just happened to be correct.

I'm still thinking about it, and re-analysising Marquis' early D1 behavior and behavior and interactions with Eddie.

[Davsto]

I'm fairly confident I have good reasons in mind why CES wouldn't bus Marquis but I'll check something to solidify that idea sometime soon

[ActionDan]

Caveat, I think Dunn probably should be lynched, and I think he deserves it. But I can't block out a bus here for a good amount of reasons. Notably, that this IS white flag and a calculated bus is a strategy that has been deployed before. (granted this could be Ran busing CES briefly but that's less strategy and more tactics imo, and yes there's a difference).

[Thestatusquo]

I mean, focusing on Dunn today is a bit lazy. At least fulfill my request so I can explain myself to you all as best I can. For example, if Dunn were lynched and flipped town today, would your truly reconsider your read on me the next day? I think not. Yet if you focused on one of ME v Marquis, if somehow I were mislynched, it would at least give town a ton of information (due to wagons) and make others accountable for their actions towards my slot. I also think Marquis is town's best chance at victory, since that might be a lynch town may actually agree on. Otherwise we may just lose. I want you all to try harder.

I'm not going to focus on anyone vs. anyone.

I'm going to focus on who I think is scum and vote them. That's not lazy, thats mafia.

What is it with players these days where they think every day has to be some massive 1v1.

I have already outlined why I think you're scum but if you want me to do that again tomorrow I can.

[Ranmaru]

Yes, please do it. I'm also not sure why you say 'these days'. It's something I've seen be done for a while now.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm old af.

[Ranmaru]

But his behaviour as a whole yesterday felt very,, off compared to the first two days. I haven't rechecked in detail but my instincts feel like he was riding being heavily townread day one and two and got a little carried away maybe? Again that's mostly me just thinking off the top of my head I haven't looked properly

Can you go more into this? How was I riding being heavily town read?

[Shadoweh]

Can anyone tell me they're scumreading Ran for something other than him defending CES?

There's a bit of difference between defending someone and trying to make someone preemptively sound like the incoming scum flip's partner, which is what I interpretted a lot of his comments towards Lycanfire as being. Especially since Lycan is 99% not a member of the scum team now. Regardless of that I think his opening post today sounded like pleading. I've been in the desperately pleading not to get lynched position though but somehow I doubt I'm going to be convinced by this train of thought. :V