Mini 1993 - Earthbound Mafia: Giygas' Curse - GAME OVER


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Post Post #1925 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:30 am

Post by InfernoBrafin »

Inferno:

Probably not add as much as flip it all on its head. ;)
Well I agree in some scenarios it's not good to use as much time as possible, I think that in this situation if we stall out D2 for long enough we may be able to push into a town win.
p-edit: LOL
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Post Post #1926 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:30 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 1885, acryon wrote:
In post 1884, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1883, Mathdino wrote:Mastina is confirmed joat by Icons flip, she's just not confirmed town
I've been in a game with a Deputy without there being a Cop. And I've been in a game with both Miller AND GF roles present but ALSO no investigative. (the former was a massive 42 player game too)
To this end, I will say that this post from C&S feels like a very big pile of BS if you're of the opinion that C&S could be lying.
In post 1041, Carrot and Stick wrote:Iconeum is a backup of my role. (Something I guessed at D1 which is one of the reasons I was defending him so adamantly--I don't know HOW, but somehow, I just
knew
that he was a backup JOAT specifically.)
It was certainly something that pinged me about her claim (note that she only claimed AFTER the fact). but what could I have said or done back then?

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Post Post #1927 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:32 am

Post by acryon »

In post 1926, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1885, acryon wrote:
In post 1884, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1883, Mathdino wrote:Mastina is confirmed joat by Icons flip, she's just not confirmed town
I've been in a game with a Deputy without there being a Cop. And I've been in a game with both Miller AND GF roles present but ALSO no investigative. (the former was a massive 42 player game too)
To this end, I will say that this post from C&S feels like a very big pile of BS if you're of the opinion that C&S could be lying.
In post 1041, Carrot and Stick wrote:Iconeum is a backup of my role. (Something I guessed at D1 which is one of the reasons I was defending him so adamantly--I don't know HOW, but somehow, I just
knew
that he was a backup JOAT specifically.)
It was certainly something that pinged me about her claim (note that she only claimed AFTER the fact). but what could I have said or done back then?
I don't know what you could have done, but I was just inspired to revisit the nature of her claim, and was reminded of that doozy which didn't stick out the first time around.
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Post Post #1928 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:39 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 1913, Mathdino wrote:A50 town means we lynch mastina, and kthx looks significantly worse
Why? We've gone through this whole situation and it turned out to be he misunderstood the result he got.

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Post Post #1929 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:42 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 1914, Mathdino wrote:COUNTERPOINT: if they get NK'd
1. they don't have to catch up
2. scum has just removed someone from our lynchpool

i'd call it a win-win but it's really just a win for town
So you're just interested in sorting IB, but you're not interested in considering anything they say even if they flip Town? That's good to know!

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Post Post #1930 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:47 am

Post by InfernoBrafin »

Inferno


So. I've been looking at James' flowchart over his shoulder as he writes it.
And yeah. There's no way anyone else in this thread is going to understand it except him. Heck, I don't understand it!

I really think if the option presents itself, we should let A50 lay and lynch C&S. And then, should it come down to it, we do the same thing that I want to do with stalling, but with Mastina as the lynch. Do you think you could rework the plan for the scenario with Mastina lynch and IB as confirmed town?

If not, cool, I'd just like to consider that as an option.
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Post Post #1931 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:49 am

Post by Mathdino »

No
Mastinas roleblock is really important here for clearing Beefster
There is no comparable plan for a mastina scum flip tbh
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Post Post #1932 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:53 am

Post by Almost50 »

Actually I'm so positive Mastina is Scum I'm more prone to accept my lynch in exchange of hers. I was grasping at one last chance of attracting the NK tonight if I didn't get lynched (since the plan was for me to not commute, and virtually any other flip would've made my lynch even harder), but I'm holding you all to this promise: Mastina gets lynched after I flip no matter what she/anyone else tries to prevent that lynch.

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Post Post #1933 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:04 pm

Post by InfernoBrafin »

Brafin:

THANK YOU JESUS!

Just got to the gladiate claim. Going to run some stuff about y'all on it, and I'll snap a pic and send you all page 1 of the flowchart (Yes, page 1...)
Correction, I'm not going to "Run stuff by you." I'm going to make a definitive claim.

Scumteam is C&S/Acryon/N_M. I'm sure of it, and I'll explain why momentarily. But first, other important items...
A50 is repeated y evasive with Bu. Why I don't know.
Beef makes some super odd posts. Don't know what to make of that.
TGP has some strong mid-day reads.
If I'm wrong about all of this (which I guess is possible, but if I am I'm going to cry) Mom over Bu all the way. By far Mom has been the stranger on in all interactions. I'd put A50 with her, too.

Now, onto the reads...

We were right. Acryon's use of his ability was a gutsy, scum-indic move.
But not in the way we thought.
I've noticed as I've made my chart that Ico and MD are frequently interacting in a very town way with another. They agree and disagree civilly. They build on each other's reads. and they both have extremely town-sided play. It almost comes across as a two-slot Hydra, and there's even indication that TW wants to jump on board late in the chart. All in all, they are all town-based players that are creating a powerful team and foundation for town. And then they focus in on Acryon.

Now, scum isn't oblivious (they can't afford to be) and there's no way they miss this. They know that if these two player build a team, scum is in trouble, because when town unites and starts targeting scum, it gets super scary fast. They have to get one of them lynched. Today. But Acryon, the scum "saving grace" can gladiate and make the two big boys go at each other instead, resulting in a lynch. So C&S agrees to the lynch and draws a large part of town onto it, to set up the claim and use.

Now, Acryon is genuinely panicky and nervous when the wagon starts, using AtE to defend and generally trying to worm away from the lynch. Likely scum.
C&S looks good at first, but if you take the time to read his walls (which I didn't the first time) you find that there's much less fact than opinion that appears to be fact, something that is also scum-indic.
But their damning nail is their association.
Who has been pushing for MD to get the lynch all game? Who starts the wagon on Acryon finally rolling? Who has tried unsuccessfully to discredit Ico and MD beforehand?
Carrot and Stick.
Who has been saying that Acryon is obvtown? That MD is obvious scum? Has contributed little but when they have has been in support of C&S all the way?
Not_Mafia.

Scum!C&S, scum!acryon, and scum!N_M all have one goal: to take out the most powerful scumthreat and the biggest boon to town: Ico and MD.
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Post Post #1934 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

you're likely right on 2/3 of those

do you mind claiming? i heavily doubt you're gonna get shot anytime soon when there are 3 claimed protectives and 3 claimed investigatives

it occurs to me that because beefster's jail on marangal has been confirmed, one of the following must have happened:
A. mastina roleblocked me (or rolestopped Icon). No way there's a jailkeeper, JOAT with a roleblocker, and also another roleblocking ability.
B. I'm lying.
C. There's a strongman out there.

Going through the playerlist:
acryon: Is already a gladiator. That said, his flavour is literally Captain Strong, lol. Could be scum with both abilities.
A50: Isn't the strongman unless scum have a strongman ninja kill.
Beefster: Confirmed blocked Marangal.
Bujaber: Unclaimed, but softclaimed visitor of some kind. Doubtful this is strongman.
mastina: Icon was a backup JOAT, remember. Icon would not have been given a 1-shot strongman. Therefore mastina can't have this.
IB: Softing something or other.
Kthx: Confirmed follower.
Marangal: Wouldn't fakeclaim messenger. Probably not strongman.
N_M: Could have fakeclaimed his motion detector result, his results only came after a bunch of claims.
the worst: Some kind of investigative.

Roleblocker candidates: mastina
Strongman candidates: acryon, IB, N_M
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Post Post #1935 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:39 pm

Post by the worst »

I'm still not fullclaiming.
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Post Post #1936 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:42 pm

Post by the worst »

I've got the perfect twilight post. Make sure I'm on when the hammer goes through
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Post Post #1937 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:09 pm

Post by Kthxbye »

In post 1934, Mathdino wrote:A50: Isn't the strongman unless scum have a strongman ninja kill.
I already confirmed with the mod that I would get something other than "NO RESULT" if I targeted a ninja. I would get that they did not perform an action in that case.
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Post Post #1938 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:14 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Ah, right.

So he isn't the strongman, and there's confirmed scum in {Mathdino, mastina, acryon, IB, N_M}.

N_M, thoughts?
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Post Post #1939 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:14 pm

Post by Beefster »

In post 1934, Mathdino wrote:you're likely right on 2/3 of those

do you mind claiming? i heavily doubt you're gonna get shot anytime soon when there are 3 claimed protectives and 3 claimed investigatives

it occurs to me that because beefster's jail on marangal has been confirmed, one of the following must have happened:
A. mastina roleblocked me (or rolestopped Icon). No way there's a jailkeeper, JOAT with a roleblocker, and also another roleblocking ability.
B. I'm lying.
C. There's a strongman out there.

Going through the playerlist:
acryon: Is already a gladiator. That said, his flavour is literally Captain Strong, lol. Could be scum with both abilities.
A50: Isn't the strongman unless scum have a strongman ninja kill.
Beefster: Confirmed blocked Marangal.
Bujaber: Unclaimed, but softclaimed visitor of some kind. Doubtful this is strongman.
mastina: Icon was a backup JOAT, remember. Icon would not have been given a 1-shot strongman. Therefore mastina can't have this.
IB: Softing something or other.
Kthx: Confirmed follower.
Marangal: Wouldn't fakeclaim messenger. Probably not strongman.
N_M: Could have fakeclaimed his motion detector result, his results only came after a bunch of claims.
the worst: Some kind of investigative.

Roleblocker candidates: mastina
Strongman candidates: acryon, IB, N_M
I'd bet on A, personally.
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Post Post #1940 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:27 pm

Post by InfernoBrafin »

Brafin:

KK, will do.

We are Mr. Saturn, a quirky being from Saturn Valley that gave Ness and friends some really weird coffee.
We are a One Shot Double-Day Maker aligned with town. With this, we can create an extra day phase after a lynch. This dayphase will be as long as the time left on the clock at the time of flip, unless it would be less than 7 IRL days, which would make it 7 IRL days. No lynching is an option. We must submit during the day we wish for it to take effect before twilight. We also may not use it during MyLo or LyLo.

That's why we want the day to last as long as possible: we can give us an extra 7 to work with if we do, which is good if we (Which isn't going to happen now) mislynched, so we could get new reads on stuff.

Also, I am going to get out there now and say that N_M is definitely the weak point in the scumteam I developed. I think he's scum as of #664, but there's always the chance I'm wrong. So I will say that From a current standpoint and not that of the flowchart, Bu, Mom, or Beef could all be alternates for that slot. But that's not what my flowchart tells me, and I'll beleive that more than N_M any day.
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Post Post #1941 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:49 pm

Post by the worst »

In post 1901, the worst wrote:James
...
Why
Just why
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Post Post #1942 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:52 pm

Post by the worst »

Actually that's really neat. Explains a bit about your play that had previously made me a bit anxious, too. I don't think it's good practice to throw it down today tho
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Post Post #1943 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:58 pm

Post by InfernoBrafin »

Brafin:

Why? With two pretty much confirmed scum, why wouldn't we wand to lynch them both today?
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Post Post #1944 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:02 pm

Post by Kthxbye »

In post 1943, InfernoBrafin wrote:
Brafin:

Why? With two pretty much confirmed scum, why wouldn't we wand to lynch them both today?
This
If you think I'm scum D1, bet all your money I'm town.
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Post Post #1945 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:05 pm

Post by the worst »

Uh I might have derped.....who are the pretty much confirmed scum?
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Post Post #1946 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:10 pm

Post by BuJaber »

Sorry to disagree with IB and MD but I just think Beef is scum.

Meaning one of Mom/Mastina is scum.
To clarify: the interaction between beef/mom/mastina is only confirmed if all 3 are telling the truth. If one of them is proven to have lied (by a flip) then the whole thing breaks apart.

3rd probably Acryon or A50.

I also think it's possible NM is scum and acryon is town or the other way around. I know NM claims it isn't possible but I'm not convinced. He could have made an assumption that is not correct.

It is also possible A50 is town and acryon is the last scum obviously.

Anyway those are my thoughts but basically yes IB use your ability. It proves you're town at the very least and guarantees no night kill. With 2 flips we should know exactly who scum are this game.

I don't think we need to talk about it that much.

And yes IB I never believed that gladiate was town-motivated. I dropped it because of MD and NM. But saying mastina would push for acryon and no lynch that hard just to distance herself from acryon seems far fetched. You could call mastina scum for a lot of things but this plan you described in particular would require a 3 person scumteam that is diabolical beyond anything I've ever even imagined let alone seen before.
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Post Post #1947 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:16 pm

Post by BuJaber »

Also there's no day chat as confirmed by OP so if you're right about acryon/c&S team it means they planned all of it at .. pre game setup? We're in day 2 right? Yeah acryon wagon was day 1.
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Post Post #1948 (ISO) » Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:49 am

Post by BuJaber »

Should we read into the fact that mastina is not posting here and the other head of the hydra hasn't shown up at all?

I would really hate to find out C&S is scum; just seems so wrong to me and even now I'm still townreading her pretty strongly here but I don't know anymore.
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Post Post #1949 (ISO) » Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:05 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 1940, InfernoBrafin wrote:We are a One Shot Double-Day Maker aligned with town. With this, we can create an extra day phase after a lynch. This dayphase will be as long as the time left on the clock at the time of flip, unless it would be less than 7 IRL days, which would make it 7 IRL days. No lynching is an option. We must submit during the day we wish for it to take effect before twilight. We also may not use it during MyLo or LyLo.
I want this today, yes. I'm not comfortable going into the nightphase if A50-town.

There's pretty transparently scum in {Beefster, mastina} tbh. 3 protectives would be silly, even if against a strongman. That's why I'm having them block each other.

That said, for night purposes, I think the optimal move is to do A50 --> acryon and then lynch mastina tomorrow, so we at least get her night action in. There's a very good chance we won't have any kills at all.

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