Open 715 - White Flag Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #3 (isolation #0) » Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:41 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

/confirm
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Post Post #22 (isolation #1) » Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:46 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 6, Russian Roulette wrote:/confirm
You're the hydra with Mathdino, correct? My apologies to your other half, but I have to pay him back for flaking in our last game together.

VOTE: RussianRoulette
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Post Post #34 (isolation #2) » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:40 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

+1 on the backup mod. I know TBM said he had to deal with family stuff but we still need someone to run the game. I wouldn't be too surprised if the reason some people haven't posted since confirming is because they were waiting for a Day Start PM and just haven't checked the thread.
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Post Post #36 (isolation #3) » Sun Mar 11, 2018 1:49 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

Yeah we should try that.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #4) » Sun Mar 11, 2018 1:54 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

Yup. Just did it.

Hopefully the game picks up soon. I also want to see the explanation for that non-random vote Cult dropped.
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Post Post #50 (isolation #5) » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:36 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

Does this mean all our earlier votes don't count?
Last edited by TheButtonmen on Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post Post #77 (isolation #6) » Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:03 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

I could tell Korina was joking but was also pretty sure that someone would take it seriously. I don't like Korina's self-vote but not in a "that's scummy" way and more in a "that's childish and unneccesary" way.

On the other hand I think Athena taking the joke too seriously is more likelyto come from Town who is eagerly looking for any signs of scum. Opens seem to have a pattern of newer Townies always jumping on a joke or someone not paying attention to the setup.
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Post Post #112 (isolation #7) » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:49 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 102, Russian Roulette wrote:@Alchemist: You asked the mod if our earlier votes count. Is this important to you? If so, why? And why not just revote to make sure in the case that earlier votes don't count?
Some people's votes seemed important to them. I only had the RVS vote and so far don't have any scumreads and didn't care to reiterate a RVS vote. I was asking because I had a feeling the mod wouldn't count votes until they announced the game but was hoping they would just let it go all things considered.
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Post Post #125 (isolation #8) » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:58 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 121, Almost50 wrote:OK, I'm here for a little bit, so here's what I'm doing: I'll try a new approach that I have been experimenting with. This only works in open setups with a definite/known number of scums, and the game is preferably single ball with no SK (it could be applied to 2 scum teams like WW+Mafia, but the SK kind of messes this up).

Anyway, here we have 3 Mafiam so I start by listing all players and bolding the top name. Assuming the top name is scum I try to see if they can be scum with the rest and edit out the ones I feel impossible.

The "rest" (aside from the top bolded name) are now in a second list with the top name bolded. Assuming the previous name is Town and the second is scum I do the exact same as I did to the 1st list.

Then a 3rd, 4th .. etc.

Here's how it looks at the start of the game:

Korina

Flubbernugget
Shadpearl
Quick Maker
Not_Mafia
CultOfAthena
Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Flubbernugget

Shadpearl
Quick Maker
Not_Mafia
CultOfAthena
Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Shadpearl

Quick Maker
Not_Mafia
CultOfAthena
Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Quick Maker

Not_Mafia
CultOfAthena
Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Not_Mafia

CultOfAthena
Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

CultOfAthena

Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Klick

Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Bellaphant

Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Russian Roulette

AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

AnonymousGhost

havingfitz
Alchemist121


Notes:
- I of course removed my own name as I already know I'm Town.
- If anyone is interested in being as crazy as I am though feel free to replace my name with yours.
- If you don't want to use that approach (and I would expect everyone not to :lol:) then this is just a way for you all to track my reads progression, so as not to ask me to go back and dig up a case from 10s of pages ago. I will probably include every single thought I have inside these spoilers as the game goes on.

Now off to read the thread from the start (although from my previous skim it had very little if anything to comment on)
Not to knock a new method or anything, but this seems like it could get confusing. For one, are you copying the list and pasting the original list everytime? If not, I could see you editing out a name and forgetting to put it back. Secondly, if you see potential scummates between a name earlier in the list and a later name, that connection would only be reflected in the first section and not the second since you're cutting out names you already looked at, correct? It seems like it weakens the whole idea of your approach since if you wanted to look at a later name and see who they could be with you could miss a higher up name that they were associated with but you didn't list later on.

It just seems tedious in a way that leaves room for error.
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Post Post #128 (isolation #9) » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:06 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 126, CultOfAthena wrote:A50, I find it hard to believe that you still have Korina as having the most scumpartners where AG and Russian Roulette have the least.
That's part of what I was talking about. He posted an example list to show his method, and the way it's structured makes it look like the top names have more potential scumbuddies than the bottom names even though they don't.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #10) » Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:25 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

VOTE: Shadpearl

Your soft defense of me feels off, like you're trying to buddy me or defend an easy push. Scummiest thing I've seen so far in this game.
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Post Post #182 (isolation #11) » Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:28 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 177, Almost50 wrote:
In post 173, Shadpearl wrote:@Almost50 ....I don't know what SR means and Mafia Wiki won't tell me... ( . .)
TR = Town Read
SR = Scum Read

Also the bottom have of makes me lean Town on Cult. I have not actually verified the details, but I don't see scum going through the trouble (or even thinking of coming up with that) to appear like they're scum hunting.

Spoiler:
Korina

Flubbernugget
Shadpearl
Quick Maker
Not_Mafia
CultOfAthena
+

Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Flubbernugget

Shadpearl
Quick Maker
Not_Mafia
CultOfAthena
Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Shadpearl

Quick Maker
Not_Mafia
CultOfAthena
Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Quick Maker

Not_Mafia
Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
(Question in 167 is too tough to ask a buddy. If anythin it could be an attempt to corner fitz and set him for a lynch IF QM are scum, which I still think they aren't)
Alchemist121

Not_Mafia

CultOfAthena
Klick
Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

CultOfAthena

Klick
+

Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost

havingfitz
Alchemist121

Klick

Bellaphant
Russian Roulette
AnonymousGhost
+

havingfitz

Alchemist121

Bellaphant

Russian Roulette
+

AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121

Russian Roulette

AnonymousGhost
havingfitz
Alchemist121


AnonymousGhost

havingfitz
Alchemist121
In post 178, Almost50 wrote:I meant post # for CoA
I agree with you here. I don't think I've ever seen scum bother to check timestamps for something like this.
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Post Post #224 (isolation #12) » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:45 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 206, CultOfAthena wrote:Is the scummiest thing you've seen so far?

Are you saying he's incorrect when he says this (ie you're agreeing that the points against you are valid)?
Pretty much. There was no reason for them to try defending me unless they were trying to pocket me.

How many votes are on Korina now? I want to lynch them now but don't want to end the Day just yet.
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Post Post #225 (isolation #13) » Sat Mar 17, 2018 11:55 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 199, Russian Roulette wrote:In other news, I think Klick's replace-out is potentially alignment indicative (although dependent on some other ali
What's your reasoning here? Are you thinking they replaced out because of a scumbuddy?
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Post Post #227 (isolation #14) » Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:49 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

Really? Thought there was more.

VOTE: Korrina
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Post Post #245 (isolation #15) » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:44 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 233, Quick Maker wrote:
@MOD
, Can we get a VC?

@Alchemist, could you please answer the question(S) we directed at you in our last post?

Still waiting on a Fitz answer.

@Not_Mafia, are you actually playing in a way trying to win?
My posts I've made pretty much answered it already. I think they were trying to pocket me and yes I think my vote was justified.
In post 244, Korina wrote:That's exactly what I was trying to see.
I suspect those in the middle of the wagon of being scum, namely AG and Alc.

Athena is good.
Sounds like bullshit to me. Why should I trust that "reaction test" from the person who's claimed they'd self hammer out of frustration?
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Post Post #248 (isolation #16) » Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:01 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 246, Korina wrote:I don’t self-hammer out of frustration. I just self-hammer to self-hammer.
Well that's just dumb. Why would you do something that's practically gamethrowing? At the very least it's definitely playing against your wincon.
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Post Post #269 (isolation #17) » Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:14 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 262, Russian Roulette wrote:If you're gonna remove Korina, get it over with. There's scum afraid to hop on this wagon.
I don't get it. If you think there's scum afraid to hop on the wagon then why are your alternate choices two people on that wagon? Who would you say is the scum that's afraid to join it?
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Post Post #303 (isolation #18) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:06 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 301, Almost50 wrote:And I will repeat.. I do no SR/TR Alch on his own. I have him as likely connected to you, and I want YOU lynched. If Dino won't help me lynch you then I might as well help him lynch his prime suspect, and if that flips Red then I'll have your head served on a silver platter.

Now what if Alch flips Town,, you might ask? Nothing. I'd still SR you for the same reason I explained, and would want you lynched.

Now a question for you: What exactly is wrong with your "play style"?? Cuz I seem to recall it was more than impressive when you took over that scum slot (Redfalvor's). Care to give me a clue?
I think you're putting too much trust in Dino and if he's scum you're playing right into his hands.
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Post Post #308 (isolation #19) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:27 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

That's
L-1
btw.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #20) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:06 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

I like A50's analysis and think it's heavily indicative that he's Town, and I want to agree with it, but I have to say we can't really rule anyone out one way or the other based in the Night Kill. Regardless of his reads, he was the most logical kill choice simply because he was the most proactive here.
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Post Post #373 (isolation #21) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:01 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 366, havingfitz wrote:VOTE: Quick Maker

Would vote Alchemist as well for rip R.R.
You've never explained your case on QM.
In post 367, Not_Mafia wrote:VOTE: Quick Maker
And you've never explained anything at all. Start talking.

VOTE: Not Mafia
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Post Post #380 (isolation #22) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:11 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 376, havingfitz wrote:
Spoiler: Alchemist ISO
22 posts.

First post confirms. zzzzzz

is what appears to be an OMGUS RVS vote on Russian Roulette. zzzzzzzz

…agrees with RR that a back up mod would be helpful. zzzzzzz

…agrees with AG that someone could contact a listmod to get a b/u mod. smh….zzzzzzzzzz

is alchemist stating they contacted a list mod about a back up mod. smh….so helpful and proactive.

seems like a useless question to ask. 1) votes made before the day opens should obviously not be counted. 2) wait till the first votecount and see what happens.

…I don’t have a problem with this post. In fact…it’s along the same lines of thought I had iirc (at least after closer look at COA). Appears as though Alc is tr’ing both Korina and COA. ok.

…explains to RR the question to the mod about votes counting or not. meh.

…gives a critique of A50’s scum hunting process. I agree with their critique.

…more A50 hunting chat. zzzzzz

…votes Shad for scummiest thing in this game so far. (i.e. soft defense of Alc.)

…agrees with A50 on a COA town tell (timestamps).

…elaborates on Shad vote and says they are willing to join Korina wagon later in the day.

questions RR about the Klick replace out and if it’s AI. meh…ok…

…puts a 3rd vote on Korina.

…discusses their earlier vote on Shad as well as current Korina vote. zzzzz

…self hammer chat with Korina. ok…

…good question to RR about Korina wagon.

…cautions A50 about tr’ing RR (Mathdino).

..gives wagon count. zzzzzzzz

…likes A50s analysis but warns against using NKA to clear anyone.

..questions N_M and I on our QM votes. ok…. And votes N_M…meh

I do not think I would vote Alchemist after all. At least not atm. His posts either seem a bit meh or something I agree with. Nothing terribly bad though.

What are your reads atm Alchemist? Any town reads you are confident in?
Are you voting N_M for the same reasons QM essentially did yesterday? I.e. policy? Have you played with N_M before?

Slight town read atm.
I'm feeling Town on A50, and I haven't seen any reason to overturn my Athena Townread. Shadpearl started seeming Townier after I unvoted but it's not as solid.

N_M is policy. I'd rather not carry it to a lynch like we did Korina, I just want N_M to actually explain things. I have played with him once or twice before but I don't remember him just making naked votes and not saying in between.
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Post Post #381 (isolation #23) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:12 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 379, havingfitz wrote:
Spoiler: Not_Mafia ISO
12 posts! Impressive.

…confirm. zzzzzz

…fluff

…naked Shad vote. :/

…naked RR vote :/

..reasoning for RR vote. ok.

…naked QM vote. :/

…naked Korina vote. :/

…facepalms QM request for more reasoning.

…naked QM vote. :/

…tells QM their read on him (N_M) is wrong.

…naked Korina vote with request no one else unvotes the slot. meh.

…naked QM vote. :/

Town
What makes him Town to you?
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Post Post #383 (isolation #24) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:17 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 382, Not_Mafia wrote:So Alchemist is QM’s partner
In post 287, Not_Mafia wrote:You're wrong
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Post Post #458 (isolation #25) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:07 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

Sometimes rl gets busy after you join the games.
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Post Post #459 (isolation #26) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:08 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

Not_Mafia
Sometime either tonight or tomorrow I'll look back at everything in the game and try to pin down more reads.
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Post Post #469 (isolation #27) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:10 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

Spoiler: My notes on rereading the game today
Post 97 - seems odd for Bella to have TR on Flubber after 1 post.

115 - don't like Klick's vote on RR here. Seems to criticize Dino for not doing exactly what their post was doing.

127 - had early TR on CoA. Why did they interact with several people then naked vote me without interaction?

135 - why does A50 think NM had the best reaction?

138 - not the first post it is mentioned but I didn't take much notice before, but why is flubber a TR for A50?

140 - regardless of flubber's alignment, I doubt he'd lie about A50's meta so I'm inclined to take flubber's word about A50 here.

149 - every post from Bellaphant has been lackluster. But it seems familiar for some reason. I may have played with then before.

171 - that's an explanation for my vote that's simple enough that it could have been stated at the time of the vote.

177 - fair point regarding CoA. I've never seen scum care about time stamps like that.

182 - me from ~2 weeks ago agrees with 177 as well lol

187 + 188 - dat beetlejuice. That NM responded with a naked vote on QM has me very concerned now. Even regarding context it was out of nowhere.

206 - CoA confirms that Bella's quiet style is typical for her.

229 - other people wanting a policy lynch makes you not want it anymore?

260 - gonna need reasons on that NM towntell

261- I kinda like the last paragraph in 261

265 - disagree that players voted by NM deserved it

274 - A50 blind sheeping isn't a good sign. I was more sus of Dino at the time but knowing Dino was Town I'd say it looks worse for A50 here, and if A50 is scum it would point to AG being Town

290 - I mean, I've seen Town say it and it often holds up as true. But I do agree Korina was a special case.

301 - terrible. Blindly sheeping someone to vote someone you don't SR just to vote someone you're going to vote anyway the next day isn't productive.

313 + 314 - Obviously it was Double Jeopardy. :P

348 - Following from his End of Day posts, this seems like a natural start for A50's D2.

363, 366, 367 - where are these votes coming from?

374 - I had said Fitz didn't explain his case in more detail like he said he would. "More detail" apparently means "poe/gut"

375 - ok nevermind that is more detailed

379 - why? There's a concerning dynamic forming between Fitz and NM.

390 - He's right you know.

392 - I like AG actually trying to figure out a way to read NM. It's of a more probing mindset that is likely to come from Town, but I wouldn't put it past them to have planned such an interaction in the scum PT during the Night if they are partners.

395 - NM starts to play ball. This didn't start until after he made some D2 posts so it was either prompted by in-thread posts rather than PT post or he was waiting for a sign from partner AG to start changing. Occam's Razor implies it's more likely to be the former reason. I think the former case also indicates NM more likely to be Town as he's changing of his own will and not because teammates, regardless of who they may be, were screaming at him to change.


I think Fitz is the one I want to vote most right now. I think NM is Town but Fitz's dynamic with him and QM is giving me scumvibes.

VOTE: Havingfitz

Could maybe do the Klick/Vij slot but I'd rather see what a new player there has to say. It's not as strong a feeling there.

I still don't know about Bella and Flubber.
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Post Post #471 (isolation #28) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:50 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 470, Almost50 wrote:@Alch: Why would you need someone else's meta-read on me when you have played me as scum in Kutoi's Death Note and as Town in Skull's Undertale? (We may have played more games together, but I'm just giving examples off the top of my head)
?

I don't recall being in either of those games and I'm pretty sure I wasn't. I'd definitely remember being in a Death Note game.
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Post Post #472 (isolation #29) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:51 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

And they're not in my wiki which I'm pretty good at keeping track of. You have me confused with someone else.
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Post Post #480 (isolation #30) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:23 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 479, MagnaofIllusion wrote:@Alchemist – My question to you is … why did you think Shad was buddying up to you? Generally buddying goes towards a player who is influential and generally Town read in general that scum don’t want coming at them. Did you see yourself in that sort of position Day 1?
I've had several games in the past where scum tried to buddy me and it's one of those things that I'm extra paranoid about. I definitely don't think I was in a strong Town position at the time, in fact I think I should have been null to most if not all players at the time. In my opinion the case against me was weak enough that it could have been defended against, but nobody should have had a reason to defend me if they didn't know my alignment and scum could have taken the opportunity to defend a Townie to try earning Towncred and making me more willing to side with them later on. Shad's looked Townier since so I don't think that's what he was doing, I think he's just one of those players who will defend another player if he doesn't think the argument is valid.
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Post Post #488 (isolation #31) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:19 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 486, Pine wrote:What upppp bitchessss

I'm at Easter with the inlaws, I'll read later. What should I know?
Korina was kynched D1 and flipped Town.

Russian Roulette was killed N1.
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Post Post #489 (isolation #32) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:20 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

I knew one day I would make that typo and not catch it.
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Post Post #529 (isolation #33) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:26 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

@flubber
What are your thoughts on Fitz? You went from null reading him to voting him without anything in between.
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Post Post #541 (isolation #34) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:17 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 539, havingfitz wrote:
In post 469, Alchemist21 wrote:
Spoiler: My notes on rereading the game today
Post 97 - seems odd for Bella to have TR on Flubber after 1 post.

115 - don't like Klick's vote on RR here. Seems to criticize Dino for not doing exactly what their post was doing.

127 - had early TR on CoA. Why did they interact with several people then naked vote me without interaction?

135 - why does A50 think NM had the best reaction?

138 - not the first post it is mentioned but I didn't take much notice before, but why is flubber a TR for A50?

140 - regardless of flubber's alignment, I doubt he'd lie about A50's meta so I'm inclined to take flubber's word about A50 here.

149 - every post from Bellaphant has been lackluster. But it seems familiar for some reason. I may have played with then before.

171 - that's an explanation for my vote that's simple enough that it could have been stated at the time of the vote.

177 - fair point regarding CoA. I've never seen scum care about time stamps like that.

182 - me from ~2 weeks ago agrees with 177 as well lol

187 + 188 - dat beetlejuice. That NM responded with a naked vote on QM has me very concerned now. Even regarding context it was out of nowhere.

206 - CoA confirms that Bella's quiet style is typical for her.

229 - other people wanting a policy lynch makes you not want it anymore?

260 - gonna need reasons on that NM towntell

261- I kinda like the last paragraph in 261

265 - disagree that players voted by NM deserved it

274 - A50 blind sheeping isn't a good sign. I was more sus of Dino at the time but knowing Dino was Town I'd say it looks worse for A50 here, and if A50 is scum it would point to AG being Town

290 - I mean, I've seen Town say it and it often holds up as true. But I do agree Korina was a special case.

301 - terrible. Blindly sheeping someone to vote someone you don't SR just to vote someone you're going to vote anyway the next day isn't productive.

313 + 314 - Obviously it was Double Jeopardy. :P

348 - Following from his End of Day posts, this seems like a natural start for A50's D2.

363, 366, 367 - where are these votes coming from?

374 - I had said Fitz didn't explain his case in more detail like he said he would. "More detail" apparently means "poe/gut"

375 - ok nevermind that is more detailed

379 - why? There's a concerning dynamic forming between Fitz and NM.

390 - He's right you know.

392 - I like AG actually trying to figure out a way to read NM. It's of a more probing mindset that is likely to come from Town, but I wouldn't put it past them to have planned such an interaction in the scum PT during the Night if they are partners.

395 - NM starts to play ball. This didn't start until after he made some D2 posts so it was either prompted by in-thread posts rather than PT post or he was waiting for a sign from partner AG to start changing. Occam's Razor implies it's more likely to be the former reason. I think the former case also indicates NM more likely to be Town as he's changing of his own will and not because teammates, regardless of who they may be, were screaming at him to change.


I think Fitz is the one I want to vote most right now. I think NM is Town but Fitz's dynamic with him and QM is giving me scumvibes.

VOTE: Havingfitz

Could maybe do the Klick/Vij slot but I'd rather see what a new player there has to say. It's not as strong a feeling there.

I still don't know about Bella and Flubber.
Alchemist…if there was anything in your spoiler that you want addressed by me let me know. I only saw my name mentioned a few times and if any other post #s allude to me I won’t know without going to every (unlinked) post mentioned which I’m not going to.

So why am I scum? I really don’t see anything other than the vague mention of a “concerning dynamic” between me and N_M and me and QM. I have been town reading N_M (which you have come to think as well) and I have suspected/voted QM.

So what is concerning?
Your QM vote felt opportunistic when you said you had a detailed case then later said it was just gut. If felt like you wanted to keel scumreading the slot even though you couldn't really justify it like you said you could. And your interaction with NM feels like you're trying to side with him for some ulterior motive. You hard Townread him and voted with him without justification for the former and little for the latter. And you can point out that I'm Townreading NM too, but the fact of the matter is that I was able to justify it. You were asked to justify a scumread you said you could and then fumbled on the response when actually called out.
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Post Post #546 (isolation #35) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:31 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 543, havingfitz wrote:
In post 541, Alchemist21 wrote:
In post 539, havingfitz wrote:
In post 469, Alchemist21 wrote:
Spoiler: My notes on rereading the game today
Post 97 - seems odd for Bella to have TR on Flubber after 1 post.

115 - don't like Klick's vote on RR here. Seems to criticize Dino for not doing exactly what their post was doing.

127 - had early TR on CoA. Why did they interact with several people then naked vote me without interaction?

135 - why does A50 think NM had the best reaction?

138 - not the first post it is mentioned but I didn't take much notice before, but why is flubber a TR for A50?

140 - regardless of flubber's alignment, I doubt he'd lie about A50's meta so I'm inclined to take flubber's word about A50 here.

149 - every post from Bellaphant has been lackluster. But it seems familiar for some reason. I may have played with then before.

171 - that's an explanation for my vote that's simple enough that it could have been stated at the time of the vote.

177 - fair point regarding CoA. I've never seen scum care about time stamps like that.

182 - me from ~2 weeks ago agrees with 177 as well lol

187 + 188 - dat beetlejuice. That NM responded with a naked vote on QM has me very concerned now. Even regarding context it was out of nowhere.

206 - CoA confirms that Bella's quiet style is typical for her.

229 - other people wanting a policy lynch makes you not want it anymore?

260 - gonna need reasons on that NM towntell

261- I kinda like the last paragraph in 261

265 - disagree that players voted by NM deserved it

274 - A50 blind sheeping isn't a good sign. I was more sus of Dino at the time but knowing Dino was Town I'd say it looks worse for A50 here, and if A50 is scum it would point to AG being Town

290 - I mean, I've seen Town say it and it often holds up as true. But I do agree Korina was a special case.

301 - terrible. Blindly sheeping someone to vote someone you don't SR just to vote someone you're going to vote anyway the next day isn't productive.

313 + 314 - Obviously it was Double Jeopardy. :P

348 - Following from his End of Day posts, this seems like a natural start for A50's D2.

363, 366, 367 - where are these votes coming from?

374 - I had said Fitz didn't explain his case in more detail like he said he would. "More detail" apparently means "poe/gut"

375 - ok nevermind that is more detailed

379 - why? There's a concerning dynamic forming between Fitz and NM.

390 - He's right you know.

392 - I like AG actually trying to figure out a way to read NM. It's of a more probing mindset that is likely to come from Town, but I wouldn't put it past them to have planned such an interaction in the scum PT during the Night if they are partners.

395 - NM starts to play ball. This didn't start until after he made some D2 posts so it was either prompted by in-thread posts rather than PT post or he was waiting for a sign from partner AG to start changing. Occam's Razor implies it's more likely to be the former reason. I think the former case also indicates NM more likely to be Town as he's changing of his own will and not because teammates, regardless of who they may be, were screaming at him to change.


I think Fitz is the one I want to vote most right now. I think NM is Town but Fitz's dynamic with him and QM is giving me scumvibes.

VOTE: Havingfitz

Could maybe do the Klick/Vij slot but I'd rather see what a new player there has to say. It's not as strong a feeling there.

I still don't know about Bella and Flubber.
Alchemist…if there was anything in your spoiler that you want addressed by me let me know. I only saw my name mentioned a few times and if any other post #s allude to me I won’t know without going to every (unlinked) post mentioned which I’m not going to.

So why am I scum? I really don’t see anything other than the vague mention of a “concerning dynamic” between me and N_M and me and QM. I have been town reading N_M (which you have come to think as well) and I have suspected/voted QM.

So what is concerning?
Your QM vote felt opportunistic when
you said you had a detailed case
then later said it was just gut. If felt like you wanted to keel scumreading the slot even though you couldn't really justify it like you said you could. And your interaction with NM feels like you're trying to side with him for some ulterior motive. You hard Townread him and voted with him without justification for the former and little for the latter. And you can point out that I'm Townreading NM too, but the fact of the matter is that I was able to justify it. You were asked to
justify a scumread you said you could
and then fumbled on the response when actually called out.
Quote me where I said the things in bold.

I gave reasons for my early suspicions towards QM (his interactions with Korina) and when asked about a more detailed case (which iirc someone else asked me for) I said it was gut & poe.
Yeah,
I
asked for it.
In post 265, havingfitz wrote:OK…slow start post v/la re-read catch up:
Spoiler: Comments/questions
and Korina is already looking for attention.
and Korina is looking for attention again. Look…he claimed something in a game full of VTs. How can that be?

and COA claims their vote on Korina was not random (though idnr any reasons given…assumed it was rvs).

All the back up mod talk on page 2 has me thinking at least one of the “helpful” posters [RR, AG, A21] is scum trying to look good.



by AG is about where I am at wrt Korina at this point in the game.

…if “Not trying to prevent your own lynch is game throwing” why would you consider self voting yourself?

…not a fan of self votes or hyperbole.

…ffr just treat the hydra as one player. Whoever it’s members are are of the same alignment. They are under no obligation to detail who is who when they post. Chill.

…don’t like this post by COA. Weak reasoning to explain their vote on Korina.

by QM came across as painfully flip floppy within the same post and despite having a weak scum read on Korina (which I disagree with) QM does not see fit to vote Korina. sus imo.

…Math is here to save the game! But seriously…some good observations/questions.

N_M can be town this game. gut

AG…do you always get into the mod’s business this much? As of you’ve helped him 3 times already…plus the back up mod chat.

…more AG helpfulness. :/

Klick slot can be town.

by A50…who cares? sus A50.

…why the Alchemist vote?

While the over helpfulness by AG pings me…I do think they are making some good posts and so they can be town for now.

Who is BTD?

by A50 has me thinking he is town. subject to change…

has me suspect of RR.



by QM….who cares?

…my sus of COA is dissolving.
As apparently …thinking Shad is town (lynchbait?).

Really tired of Korina’s self meta and other’s discussion of Korina’s meta. Just play this game.



Vijarada can be town thanks to tr on Klick.

…why would you think Klick’s replace out was AI? He was under zero pressure iirc and the game was fairly stagnant. It seems completely NAI to me.

by Korina. The attention to oneself schtick has grown old and died. He is going to wind up being policy lynched and it is not going to progress the game at all because it could easily be all town on his wagon. Please take your meta back to where you earned it Korina. smh…. Can you replace out before your supposed town slot is eliminated?

…where does COA make a case on Shad? If anything I’m getting the impression they are tr’ing each other to the point of a little buddying (if either of them were to flip scum).



Summary:Reads

A lot of inactivity definitely causing consternation in this game. A bit sad but it is a geriatric game so somewhat to be expected. Hate to see two TR’s replace out.

AG (their slot at least) I think is most likely town. The worst thing I could say towards them was that they we getting in the mod’s business to much. Play the game…don’t manage it. Otherwise agree with a lot.
COA…my early sus of COA has gone away as I read more of their content. Slight town lean.
Not_Mafia is making posts at points in the game where I find myself thinking the person being voted deserved it. N_M is a tr for me as much as I dislike their playstyle.
A50 was a bit iioa early on which had me sus of him a bit but I find myself agreeing with much of what he is saying so he is a tr for me for now.
Klick felt town to me (more gut than anything iirc) so Vijarada is at least a slim tr. Vij hasn’t done anything since replacing in to steer me off that read.

Korina is driving me fcuking crazy. I think the slot is probably town but I do not want it in the game. And if by some chance the slot did get to the end and wound up being scum…and won…I think I would give up mafia.

Shadperl I keep going back and forth on. I think I need to look them over in ISO (as with all my suspects eventually) to help define my read on them.

Flubber Bella and Alchemist are all kind of lumped together into the same ball of nothingness that I suspect for being in a ball of nothingness. Need to ISO them.

Russian Roulette and Quick Maker are both suspect to me. I know I would need to make some sort of case to get support for either of their wagons so I’ll try to explain my suspicions in more detail in later posts.


But as of right now my lynchpool is Quick Maker, Russian Roulette and Korina (more on policy than anything).

VOTE: Quick maker

Also…it would be nice if AG would reconsider if they are replacing out because they are bored.
That's where you said you would explain suspicions on them in detail. When asked, you responded with "gut." You fumbled when asked to provide a detailed answer you said you could give.
In post 544, havingfitz wrote:
In post 541, Alchemist21 wrote:And you can point out that I'm Townreading NM too, but the fact of the matter is that I was able to justify it.
How did you justify your town read on N_M any more than I did? And I'm not "hard town reading" anyone in this game. I think he is most likely town. I wouldn't call that a hard town read.
You can actually read my post where I stated my NM Townread and see my justification. You only quoted him and said "Town" with no justification. And to quote someone and simply say "town" expresses a hard Townread.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #36) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:56 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 548, havingfitz wrote:@Alchemist...so...I never said I had a detailed case and I never said I could justify my QM scumread. I said I knew I would need to justify it to get support and I said I would try. But I never said the two things you are faulting me for supposedly saying and not following through on.
In post 546, Alchemist21 wrote:You can actually read my post where I stated my NM Townread and see my justification. You only quoted him and said "Town" with no justification. And to quote someone and simply say "town" expresses a hard Townread.
I don't just simply say N_M is a townread. I give my reason for thinking so in 265.
In post 265, havingfitz wrote:Not_Mafia is making posts at points in the game where I find myself thinking the person being voted deserved it. N_M is a tr for me as much as I dislike their playstyle.
And you are not comprehending my reads apparently. And me explicitly stating so isn't helping. But ftr...I'm not hard town reading anyone. If I was a cop and had an innocent then I would hard town read someone. In this game...not so much. Stop making shit up.
You are the one making shit up. "I'll try to explain my suspicions in more detail" means you had details for those suspicions. "Poe/gut" does not constitute more detail.

NM became a TR to you because he voted people you thought deserved it, but you didn't say why those people deserved it in the first place. You've chosen to take sides with NM for some ulterior reason. It isn't for any scumhunting reason because none of what you are doing is scumhunting. You haven't done any critical analysis of other players and you haven't shown any transparency. Someone who lacks those traits is not Town.
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Post Post #553 (isolation #37) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:02 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 551, Shadpearl wrote:UNVOTE: Valjarada/Moi

I agree with the fancy poster enough to follow the leader. We can always lynch him later for being a pain -or, if the scum follow their current track- he'll get killed off for being a leader.

VOTE: Havingfitz

I do want to ask though- Havingfitz, did you post all that from a cellphone? Because, if so, that is true dedication, my good man, and I salute you.

CultofAthena is town to my mind. Passively reading Anonymous and Flubber as town if anyone particularly cares. If Moi is scum then QuickMaker seems more suspicious to me.

That leaves:
Not_Mafia - I got nothing. Sorry.
Pine - Hello :)
Alchemist - Busybody. Wants to seem active, but not actually. Still more active than me so, psh. I ain't got much. It isn't good or bad to try to cram useful information into sparse posts. Meh.
I take it you CoA read is stronger than the others. What's your reasoning on CoA (and I'd also like to hear if there's more to the other 2 as well, though they seem like you're reading them based on tone).

I'm alsk curious about why you think MoI and QM are linked.
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Post Post #604 (isolation #38) » Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:17 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 591, Shadpearl wrote:This might be a dumb question and I probably already missed it but, uhm, why is Fitz town?

And, Fitz, the only reason I brought up the strangeness in a lack of vote/read a while ago is because you had specifically said you would give one... Then didn't. Which felt odd. It wasn't as if you didn't have time. It felt like you were saying stuff meant to be town-like then not following through. But this was a while ago so IDK if it still matters to anyone, haha. <:)
Was the lack of follow through you're talking about on his QM read D1? Because that's one of my major points against him.

Also I asked you some questions in my last post:

Spoiler:
In post 553, Alchemist21 wrote:
In post 551, Shadpearl wrote:UNVOTE: Valjarada/Moi

I agree with the fancy poster enough to follow the leader. We can always lynch him later for being a pain -or, if the scum follow their current track- he'll get killed off for being a leader.

VOTE: Havingfitz

I do want to ask though- Havingfitz, did you post all that from a cellphone? Because, if so, that is true dedication, my good man, and I salute you.

CultofAthena is town to my mind. Passively reading Anonymous and Flubber as town if anyone particularly cares. If Moi is scum then QuickMaker seems more suspicious to me.

That leaves:
Not_Mafia - I got nothing. Sorry.
Pine - Hello :)
Alchemist - Busybody. Wants to seem active, but not actually. Still more active than me so, psh. I ain't got much. It isn't good or bad to try to cram useful information into sparse posts. Meh.
I take it you CoA read is stronger than the others. What's your reasoning on CoA (and I'd also like to hear if there's more to the other 2 as well, though they seem like you're reading them based on tone).

I'm alsk curious about why you think MoI and QM are linked.
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Post Post #624 (isolation #39) » Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:39 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 623, Pine wrote:Need a claim out of Flubber.

Sorry for missing you MoI, stuff came up.

I'm around most of the day, I'll have to go do some yardwork around 1-4 EST today though.
It's an all-vanilla game.

I still stand by my Fitz vote.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #40) » Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:08 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

Can everyone stop self-hammering?
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Post Post #705 (isolation #41) » Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:52 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

VOTE: HavingFitz
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Post Post #726 (isolation #42) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:14 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

Out of the other 8 players in this game, I'm cerain of 1 being scum (Fitz) and 4 of them being Town:

MoI
A50
CoA
QM

Which just leaves 2/3 of Pine, Shad, and AG as the remaining scum. And Pine is only on the list because I haven't seen something that for-sure can't come from scum unless you assume scum would never bus in White Flag. Even so, I'd consider him the least sus of the 3 for now given that he is helping with the Fitz wagon, so I believe the scumteam is Fitz, Shad, and AG here based on my PoE.
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Post Post #740 (isolation #43) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:17 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

My opinion on the Night Kill - Not_Mafia was actually widely Townread and nobody could predict where his vote was going to go. Scum killed the unlynchable wildcard to keep it from biting them in the ass later on at a more crucial moment in the game.
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Post Post #742 (isolation #44) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:27 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

Lol

You know you could try asking me questions if you're unsure about me.
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Post Post #744 (isolation #45) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:12 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

Well I just gave what I believe is a gamesolving PoE based on Townhunting so you're only half right. And this proposed exchange was also meant to be so I could evaluate you since you are still in my PoE list. I thought that since you're the one hurling accusations my way you'd be the one interested in talking, but I guess not.
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Post Post #793 (isolation #46) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:27 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 791, Almost50 wrote:So, basically you are all done conversing and want the day to end? If so, I will hammer. I was hoping we would be getting some kind of plan.. a road map if you will. I have kept an eye on the White Flag game in the competition and even after the first scum lynch the game went on to reach LyLo, and I do not wish for this game to get to LyLo because I do not trust anyone to make the right decision, myself included.

Anyway, I'll hammer in the next 24 hours if nobody has anything else to contribute.
I've pretty much given a roadmap and it seems to be in agreement with MoI's.
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Post Post #841 (isolation #47) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:15 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

I still can't believe Fitz flipped Town. I'm going to have to re-evaluate everyone at this point.

@Almost, what makes you sure Grey is Town?
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Post Post #845 (isolation #48) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:00 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 844, Almost50 wrote:I don't need to explain anything
You do when it's LyLo.
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Post Post #848 (isolation #49) » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:36 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 846, Almost50 wrote:
In post 845, Alchemist21 wrote:
In post 844, Almost50 wrote:I don't need to explain anything
You do when it's LyLo.
Is that as far as you managed to read from my post, or are you deliberately trying to lead us astray?
No, and I'm not trying to lead you anywhere. I'm just saying that LyLo isn't the time to be in our explanations (and yes I do realize you gave the explanation anyway).
In post 847, AnonymousGhost wrote:@Alchemist

Bulletpoint why you jumped onto the Fitz bandwagon, including which of MoI's points you thought had merit.
Check back on D2 to see where I was actually first on Fitz (and even MoI pointed this out) and had my own reasons to think he was scum, and still held those opinions on D3.

To re-iterate, it seemed to me that Fitz couldn't back up his reads with the detailed reasons he had said were there and I took it as him backtracking on what he said he'd do. His attempts to defend himself against my accusations made me certain he was scum because they basically amounted to "you're wrong" and I didn't really see him as trying to actually find scum, simply avoid his own lynch.
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Post Post #867 (isolation #50) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:31 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 852, Almost50 wrote:You guys need to post your reads in a more comprehensive way. I second AG request for an explanation on why Pine's reads are the same when he was on the fitz wagon. (It also makes me think I might be wrong on one of AG/Alch if I apply the 1 in 3 theory).

But anyway, I'm calling it a night soon, so I would appreciate it if everyone who checks in automatically post a read list with a prief explanation, so I won't have to ask for one when I check in tomorrow. Thank you.
Sorry but I can't give you a reads list right now. The Fitz flip is making me re-evaluate everything. It'll probably be sometime this weekend when I can have one.
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Post Post #903 (isolation #51) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:19 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 871, AnonymousGhost wrote:
In post 469, Alchemist21 wrote:I think Fitz is the one I want to vote most right now. I think NM is Town but Fitz's dynamic with him and QM is giving me scumvibes.
@Alchemist - Checked your ISO and found this.

At the time, what about Fitz's interactions with QM gave you scum vibes? I looked over your notes, but you didn't mention QM anywhere in relation to Fitz and instead focused on Fitz's interactions with NM.

Skim Edit
: NVM. Found your reasoning for the interaction between QM & Fitz in .

What is your impression of QM now? You stopped mentioning him as the Fitz wagon gained traction on D3 and you've never mentioned him in relation to Fitz since then.
As of now, unsure. Before the Fitz flip I thought QM was Town because his wagon sprang up and I never saw anyone on that wagon give an actual reason for the wagon, leading me to believe scum were involved with it.
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Post Post #904 (isolation #52) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:24 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 878, CultOfAthena wrote:
In post 873, AnonymousGhost wrote:You've tunneled on Alchemist for almost the entire game thus far, show me your case against him. And no, you can't just have your D1 case alone. Show me your progression on him from D2 and D3 and maybe how D4 his posts thus far - if any - could be contributing to your suspicion on him.
I mean, I could show you my D1 case and it would still be completely valid, if not more valid given the time passed between now and then. He's the definition of coasting scum. I have yet to see real scumhunting or sorting from his slot.
That literally hasn't changed since Day one.


Also: can I just bring back up the point that Russian Roulette, the night one kill, called directly for Alchemist's lynch at the start of the next day? And everyone just seemed to ignore it and write it off as "obvious WIFOM"... for some reason.

Do you have some sort of issue with my scumread on Alchemist? I get that feeling from your tone, but I'm not sure why, given that (from what I understand), you're also scumreading him.
Perhaps you missed where I actually did a critical analysis on Not-Mafia to figure he was Town. Perhaps you missed my whole interaction with Fitz when I started scumreading him. Perhaps you missed where I realized I was lacking scumreads so I decided to look at my Townreads and form a PoE pool. Or perhaps you're just scum trying to get me lynched. That last one feels likely to me.
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Post Post #906 (isolation #53) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:29 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 885, Pine wrote:Hunh. I was going to do this anyway, but your wish is my command, A50.

VOTE: Alchemist

I'm prepared to bet the game here. It was a shit joint anyway (no offense to mod).
Well Pine just made this easier for everyone.

VOTE: Pine
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Post Post #907 (isolation #54) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:30 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 889, Almost50 wrote:
In post 888, GreyICE wrote:Oh there won't be a quickhammer on this vote, one way or another.

In fact I'm tempted to vote Pine right now. I think he understands which way the wind is blowing. As I said, I'm curious whether bus or just an attempt to win today.
Don't say anymore please. Thank you.
Why would you not want him to say more?
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Post Post #908 (isolation #55) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:35 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 899, Almost50 wrote:@AG: I'm talking. You're talking. Grey's talking. Where the freak is everyone else? Ok, CoA showed up and Pine is voting Alch, so where are Alch & QM? I want then here and talking to us too before I give my updated thoughts.

P-edit: YES! That is a good post from QM, and it I can now share my thoughts.

At least one
of Pine/Alch is confirmed to be scum. Possibly both, but I'm talking 100%.

As Grey had predicted -although I didn't like him saying it out loud so fast- Alch isn't hammered, which means both Pine and Alch cannot be Town (otherwise the 3 scums would have piled up on the wagon to end game).

Town!Pine would not have voted Alch still in this case, regardless of Alch's alignment. Assuming Pine is town and is 95% sure Alch is scum still leaves a 5% chance of a quick hammer.

Scum!Pine is more likely to vote Town!Alch here, hoping one townie will join him (and 3 have already expressed will to vote Alch) so the other 2 scums can finish it off.

But it's also fairly likely that Scum!Pine would vote Scum!Alch for a final distancing maneuver, and especially so when I had pointed out the strange behaviour of FoSing but never voting.

If either of the two flips the other is likely to be cleared in the minds of he masses (at least that's how Pine was hoping for it to go).

The fact that nobody else had joined he wagon tells me the 3rd scum is waiting to see how it goes to decide on whether to join the bus or start a counter wagon.

In sum, Pine is 100% Scum now, and Alch is 80-85% his partner.

P.S. Tell you the truth? I had thought of verifying my thoughts by voting Alch myself to see if 2 others will hop on it, but I chickened. I mean, it felt like exploring a gas container with a lit match stick to see if there's a leak. If I', wrong about Alch it could've very well blown in my face.

If anyone doesn't understand what I', saying let me know and I will try to rephrase the case better.
I know self-meta isn't worth much, but I will tell you that I don't bus at Lylo as scum and definitely wouldn't bus in a White Flag lylo.
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Post Post #928 (isolation #56) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:36 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 924, Almost50 wrote:
In post 918, GreyICE wrote:Almost50, AQ, where your heads at?
Frankly, I'm still having a hard time accepting the possibility of Scum!QM. If they were scum, what was that they did around the fitz wagon? I mean, the wagon was there, but was far from being the one and only option for the day. QM kept defending fitz and dismantling every case made on him.

Furthermore, even on D1 Dino had them as his 4th or 5th suspects. If they're scum then they killed Dino to implicate Alch, which means Alch is Town. But if that's the case, then how come he wasn't hammered when he had both Pine and your vote on him?

So, Scum!QM isn't exactly easy for me to swallow still. I maybe naive, but it's much easier to picture Alch+Pine as scum together than any other given pairing in the game based on that Pine vote on Alch alone.

P.S. It also makes sense to shoot N_M
if scum had considered things could come to this
. Knowing N_M he would have probably voted Alch putting him @L-1 sometime, which would have confirmed Alch as scum because the other option would have been got you + Pine + N_M to be scum together for Alch not getting hammered.

But even I feel that this is farfetched enough to imagine. I mean, it's borderline Titus' moonlogic.
Grey was voting Pine, not me. The fact that Pine wasn't hammered should be a good indication to everyone else that he's scum here.
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Post Post #929 (isolation #57) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:38 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 926, GreyICE wrote:Mathdino's an organizer, that's why he got shot. He's a good player who gets things done (I think it's fair to say his play is what got the hydra shot). NotMafia... if QM didn't shoot him, then who did?

Regardless, this is the right play for today.

Vote: Alchemist


Sorry friends, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. This is 110% here.
Hey, can you unvote at least for long enough for me to post what I have been working on this lylo? It's not complete still, but I think showing it will show everyone that I have been trying to figure things out here.
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Post Post #930 (isolation #58) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:46 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

These were the start of the notes (I know, you hate my notes) I was making at the start of Lylo. There's less analysis here because I wanted to finish the reread and examine everything I noted before drawing hard conclusions.

Spoiler: Original Notes
43 - CoA has reasons for voting Korina, but also says saying vote was serious wasn't serious, but holds to the reasoning.

51 - AG gives early TR on Korina. Town Credit for being both accurate and having a reason that makes sense.

69 - A50 says the same thing AG already said. Town credit for this, but not as much as AG. Bonus points at the end though for considering the position scumKorina would be putting his partners in.

76 - "I have a weak scumread on Korina, provided this is not typical behaviour for them." I don't see why this assumption would be made.

90 - CoA still holding that the Korina read wasn't meaningful, and now defending the virtue of it spawning discussion.

94 - "If you seriously want me to pick something I find scummy out of my thing, it’s Almost commenting on how it’s good the game is moving slowly, because like I said, scum would want to keep it in RVS as long as they can because like I said, less time has to talk = the better for mafia." Some actual critical thought from Korina. For several reasons I wouldn't strongly agree with this point, but it is something to keep in the back of my mind.

97 - "Ghost looks most town for now, fits, cult and flub look good. Maybe tr on klick.

Korina's last post looked better than their others." All Townreads and no scumreads (assuming the Korina statement is a Townread).

Page 5 [SINCE I LEFT OFF HERE PINE VOTED ME, CONFIRMING HIMSELF AS SCUM]


Page 5 was as far as I got before Pine voted me.

And these were notes after the Pine vote.

Spoiler: Pine associations
114 - Bella says to consider their vote on A50 in spirit because "they didn't want to restart RVS". Would scum be more likely to not vote a Townie or not vote a partner here? They previously stated nothing but Townreads, so it's probable they were trying to avoid stirring the pot, so the reluctance to vote A50 would have meant they didn't want backlash from A50 for their vote, which would have come from Town A50 and probably not come from scum A50.

116 - CoA is Town for pushing ideas? A lot of people push ideas. It's a weak reason to Townread someone, and possibly done to be able to TR a partner, but it's such an easy statement that they could have done it to Town too.

149 - Klick is the only TR that is explicitly gut here. Klick was the first in MoI's slot so it was Town. Also, every TR mentioned in that list except CoA had flipped and was Town, which makes it more likely that CoA was also Town in that list. AG was supposedly a Townread of Bella's but wasn't mentioned in this post. Possible AG as partner?


368 - focuses on AG's interaction with A50, saying that it's natural and not just jumping on A50. Hard to say what this means for either of them.

554 - Pine basically makes an effort = AI argument for QM's early posts in order to TR them. Seems likely to me that this is done to put a partner in their Townreads. It seems to have been given as a very strong read too compared to some other Townreads he gives later down the list. The next time a strong read is given is on A50, for a short post but one that does make sense. I see this as more indication that A50 is Town, as scum Pine would have had reason to give an accurate read for good and simple reasons in order to establish their own Towncred. Bumped QM back to the middle for his N_M vote for being opportunistic. Maybe I'm confbiasing, but I don't see why it's such a bad vote at the time and why it nullifies what was a strong TR prior, so I think this is more likely to be scum overreacting to what they thought was bad play from a partner. Immediately calls out more bad from QM (doesn't actually say why it's bad) but doesn't actually say they scumread them. "426 in particular seems to set up a chain lynch for when Shad flips scum" That's something Town does and it's called associatives. Obviously it wouldn't hold up unless Shad actually flipped scum. The rest of his post pushes a narrative of Flubber/Shad being partners and I'm wondering what that means for shad.

681 - Ok so even after the Flubber flip Pine still wants to vote Shad, meaning he wanted to go for both lynches no matter what, so it's highly probable that Shad is Town.

688 - I get the sense that Pine was personally against the NM Night Kill, but that would conveniently give Pine something to push based on an incorrect assumption if any reads from N_M were inaccurate. (Need to double-check NM reads, what were actually there).


These are still incomplete, but as I said earlier Pine made it eaiser for me by outing himself to me, and knowing he was scum made it easier for me to try to critically analyze how they've interacted with other slots and see who they might be scum with. So far the impressions I'm getting from it are that A50 and you are Town and QM is a likely partner.
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Post Post #932 (isolation #59) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:47 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

Huh, thought the response might come quicker, but oh well. If you still want to vote me after this, fine, but I didn't want what work I have been able to get done go to waste.
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Post Post #934 (isolation #60) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 10:50 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 910, GreyICE wrote:Alright, FUCK IT. Inbetween dropping a fucking vote in LyLo with ONE SENTENCE of garbage, Pine has had time to make 50 posts stretching over two days, hours of time on site documented in his post history: search.php?author_id=15398&sr=posts

If he's town IDGAF. Yell at me in the post game.

Vote: Pine
This was a vote on Pine, not me.
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Post Post #936 (isolation #61) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:04 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

One more post in my own defense:

Look at how Pine was throwing shade on me while we were both on Fitz. My staunch presence there should have made him doubt the wagon, and if he truly thought Fitz slipped he should have seen me in a Townier light as MoI did. Instead of either, he proceeded with the Fitz lynch and despite his Townflip he still maintained a scumread on me. He just wanted both our lynches because he's scum.
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Post Post #943 (isolation #62) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:30 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 937, Almost50 wrote:VOTE: Pine

I mean, he wasn't hammered earlier So either he is scum or both you and Grey are (and I still maintain Grey cannot be scum neither by play nor by "Shad being conf!town for *reasons*"
I'm not sure what your *reasons* are but you can just look at how Pine's tried to appease GI here. He was hard pushing an Anon, Alch, GI scumpool until he realized he couldn't keep pushing Grey after that unvote, so he hastily threw in QM and a vote coupled with an unvote to try to make it look like he wants to work with GI now.
In post 938, CultOfAthena wrote:
In post 896, AnonymousGhost wrote:@Athena - Fine. I'll take another look at your points. I think it's more nuanced than that - clearly he did scum read Fitz before MoI's push (I thought he was just sheeping an easy wagon and missed his D2 push completely). However, I do think his D3 behavior regarding sheeping MoI does run parallel to what I have against Pine and that's where I do believe your point against him is valid. Blanketing his entire play across the game as doing nothing is invalid however as there is evidence to the contrary.
You keep saying there's "evidence to the contrary", but I don't believe I've seen you point any of it out.
In post 899, Almost50 wrote:@AG: I'm talking. You're talking. Grey's talking. Where the freak is everyone else? Ok, CoA showed up and Pine is voting Alch, so where are Alch & QM? I want then here and talking to us too before I give my updated thoughts.

P-edit: YES! That is a good post from QM, and it I can now share my thoughts.
Does anyone else feel like if this was the only post A50 was going to make before he got p-edited, it was fishing for a scumbuddy to come and hammer? That's the sense I get from the language.
In post 904, Alchemist21 wrote:Perhaps you missed where I actually did a critical analysis on Not-Mafia to figure he was Town. Perhaps you missed my whole interaction with Fitz when I started scumreading him. Perhaps you missed where I realized I was lacking scumreads so I decided to look at my Townreads and form a PoE pool. Or perhaps you're just scum trying to get me lynched. That last one feels likely to me.
Your "critical analysis of NM"? Are you talking about this:
In post 469, Alchemist21 wrote:395 - NM starts to play ball. This didn't start until after he made some D2 posts so it was either prompted by in-thread posts rather than PT post or he was waiting for a sign from partner AG to start changing. Occam's Razor implies it's more likely to be the former reason. I think the former case also indicates NM more likely to be Town as he's changing of his own will and not because teammates, regardless of who they may be, were screaming at him to change.
That took me a good deal of searching to find in your ISO, and I don't think it's actually a counterargument to my point. I'd hardy call it "scumhunting", and I sincerely doubt the validity of your method. If anything it feels more like you already know the conclusion and so you came up with a "natural looking" way to come to that conclusion, to give the appearance of sorting.
I give multiple examples and you can only weakly refute one? Come on now. You know I'm Town.

P-edit: and so comes the vote to put me at
L-1


Pp-p-edit: Thank you, Grey.
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Post Post #944 (isolation #63) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:35 am

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 943, Alchemist21 wrote:I'm not sure what your *reasons* are but you can just look at how Pine's tried to appease GI here. He was hard pushing an Anon, Alch, GI scumpool until he realized he couldn't keep pushing Grey after that unvote, so he hastily threw in QM and a vote coupled with an unvote to try to make it look like he wants to work with GI now
As a PS to this, Pine's track record this game shows that he just wants to push mislynches and not care about what the flips would mean for other players. I'd say this puts Anon, GI, and myself all firmly in the Townpile. The QM vote/unvote is weird since it goes against that idea, but he did unvote very quickly, and the move was done as an appeasement to GI, so I'd say it's still possible QM is a partner of his here.
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Post Post #945 (isolation #64) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:40 am

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Pretty sure Athena is scum now. I think the scumteam here is Pine/QM/Athena and A50, Anon, GI are all Town.
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Post Post #958 (isolation #65) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 1:20 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

Wtf

Is everything in this game just to fuck with my mind?

How is it that neither me nor Pine were hammered before this?
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Alchemist21
Alchemist21
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Alchemist21
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 8801
Joined: September 5, 2014
Pronoun: He/Him
Location: North Carolina

Post Post #962 (isolation #66) » Sat Apr 28, 2018 1:22 pm

Post by Alchemist21 »

In post 957, AnonymousGhost wrote:
Image


Absolute astounding game town! It was an absolute pleasure to play with all of you! Shoutout to MoI and MathDino who proved to be two exceptional challenges!

@Mod - I'm good. Feel free to release the scum PT~
Congrats to you all! You all played well.

Why was N_M killed?

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