Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[ActionDan]

If my best answer to that question is "I'm town because I am" then there's no value to it. I have nothing to justify. I've pushed scum reads and defended town reads, and read the game and used logic without holding anything back to inform my decisions.

[ActionDan]

VCA hasn't really yielded anything particularly fruitful so far, except reminding me that gamma loves to vote all over the place. I'm still mulling over gamma but my piliminary feelings so far are that his votes strike me as weak (which potentially could be a play style feature more than AI) but that there are a couple of nugents every so often that look town. I'll keep thinking about this.

[Gamma Emerald]

VCA hasn't really yielded anything particularly fruitful so far, except reminding me that gamma loves to vote all over the place. I'm still mulling over gamma but my piliminary feelings so far are that his

votes strike me as weak

(which potentially could be a play style feature more than AI) but that there are a couple of nugents every so often that look town. I'll keep thinking about this.

Actually that's a gripe many have had about me in my early games, where I would vote change so quickly that my vote wasn't much for pressure

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not a huge fan of dans reasoning on Dunn. I think that he's scum. I think ranmaru is more obviously scum though.

I saw his response to my case and I have not found time to respond to it yet, but he just keeps trying to rewrite history w/his opinions.

Gamma was obv town except when he wasn't when ces was on the chopping block. It was for meta but the reason he was scum was also meta.

[Ranmaru]

When will you have time to respond to it?

[Thestatusquo]

Not sure, hopefully soon. Work has been heinous and I try not to MS on the weekends generally.

You can probably tell from my latest response that I didn't find what you said particularly convincing, but you're right that it deserves to be responded to.

[Davsto]

But his behaviour as a whole yesterday felt very,, off compared to the first two days. I haven't rechecked in detail but my instincts feel like he was riding being heavily townread day one and two and got a little carried away maybe? Again that's mostly me just thinking off the top of my head I haven't looked properly

Can you go more into this? How was I riding being heavily town read?

On day one and two I recall you played a lot more "safe", with a lot more thought out cases and such on your scumreads, and you gathered a large townread. Yesterday, there was a lot of pandering to others and gaining wagons based on their popularity with others over how you actually read them. It felt like you were trying to use your towniness being townread to get votes on players you wanted (and, specifically, not on CES).

Imo for the most part today the most popular candidates for lynch are ranmaru and Dunn - a couple of others want other players lunch but for the most part ran/dun are most popular, so the day seems to be going in the direction of ran vs dun

And Ranmaru was campaigning hard for the lynch to be between him and marquis

Imo it came across as scum awkwardly trying to get the lynch off of being between a choice between two scum?

I guess that makes sens ebut I'm more comfortable with a Dunn lynch than a Ran lynch currently
Maybe those will be my next CES ISO ctrl-f picks

My thoughts are still currently Dunn/Ran scumteam. I'd be happy to vote Dunn, but I'm more confident with Ran, not to mention it'd be wayyy more of a satisfying conclusion to this game to end on the Ran lynch rather than the Dunn lynch.

Ah yes, I agree with that, though rans recent dunn vote does make that theory less likely, but I'll believe ran will lynch dunn (who he has had as a null read the whole game) when the hammer falls.

It comes across a lot like his vote on CES yesterday though - an arbitrary sudden turn onto him being scum, a token effort at distancing and bussing, then switching off very soon and back onto pushing town. I haven't seen the latter since I've been skimming recently but I bet it's happened by now in all honesty, at least the switch off if he's not yet pushing anyone else.
(also as shadoweh mentions in 3651, the case on me scum has gone from weak as it was yesterday to beyond laughable)

CASE 1 - VOTE HISTORY

Gamma Emerald (3) ~ ActionDan, Cogito Ergo Sum, LicketyQuickety 853
LicketyQuickety (3) ~ Ranmaru, Srceenplay, Gamma Emerald 961

enough said

This section is just going to be used an example as to why this whole Lycan post is a pretty bad case. He does this frequently through it - just points outs something that happens and doesn't explain why it makes him scum. What makes LQ scum here? CES is voting on his counterwagon? I could probably find examples of CES doing that for half the playerlist. The case is just so wrong and I'm not going to put in effort to refute each point. Sorry, Lycan, but if you want to convince me of LQ scum you gotta make a better case, but honestly this feels like you're confbiasing yourself - maybe take a step back, scrub your brain of LQ!scum, and look at something else or someone else to get a more fair and balanced idea.

Noticing low activity (I know, pot meets kettle), and I'm guessing people feel a lot like we've already won?

Explain.

We are in a clearly advantaged position as we only need to lynch one scum in two days and have a fairly decent chance each day by probability alone, so people may be feeling like it's not worth putting effort in as it's an easy win from here - I believe Shadoweh said words to that effect, for example.

-Davsto doesn't want LQ because ~~reasons~~

I don't get why you're so stuck on this. I gave reasons for stopping scumreading LQ iirc and haven't scumread him for a while - it's not like I've gone from scumreading him at the end of yesterday to suddenly townreading for no reason.

Unvote

What a fucking shocker

I'm not a huge fan of dans reasoning on Dunn. I think that he's scum. I think ranmaru is more obviously scum though.

I saw his response to my case and I have not found time to respond to it yet, but he just keeps trying to rewrite history w/his opinions.

join me then

[Shadoweh]

prod dodge ish, woke up slightly feverish, will post later with swift coffee injexctions
I don't think I want to vote Ran anymore today

[LicketyQuickety]

If my best answer to that question is "I'm town because I am" then there's no value to it. I have nothing to justify. I've pushed scum reads and defended town reads, and read the game and used logic without holding anything back to inform my decisions.

I always found your read on me lacking any kind of substance whatsoever. Why? You say you have defended your TRs but you read, at least on me, is completely unjustified. I don't think I saw a single legitimate reason you shared for TRing me.

[ActionDan]

oh? Just isoing myself and searching for mentions of "LQ" undermines your assertion. I've been asked twice explicitly this game for a read on you + reasoning and I've given it.

Your statement feels like you're maligning me via extrapolation; regardless of what you think of my attitude and read on you this game, do you think I haven't in general provided sufficient reasoning for town reads when appropriate? And if so, how does that effect your own read on me?

[MathBlade]

Votecount 4.7

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(37)

Ranmaru(1)

~ Davsto(18)

Dunnstral(1)

~ LicketyQuickety(53)

ActionDan(1)

~ Dunnstral(13)


Not Voting (4): Shadoweh(20), ActionDan(17), Thestatusquo(18), Ranmaru(30)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-19 04:22:42)

[ActionDan]

I'm not a huge fan of dans reasoning on Dunn. I think that he's scum. I think ranmaru is more obviously scum though.

I saw his response to my case and I have not found time to respond to it yet, but he just keeps trying to rewrite history w/his opinions.

Gamma was obv town except when he wasn't when ces was on the chopping block. It was for meta but the reason he was scum was also meta.

I've kinda tuned out Ran after his opener today to be frank. I'll go check whether the changes in read on gamma were indeed both based on meta.

[LicketyQuickety]

oh? Just isoing myself and searching for mentions of "LQ" undermines your assertion. I've been asked twice explicitly this game for a read on you + reasoning and I've given it.

Your statement feels like you're maligning me via extrapolation; regardless of what you think of my attitude and read on you this game, do you think I haven't in general provided sufficient reasoning for town reads when appropriate? And if so, how does that effect your own read on me?

So you deny it! I find this remarkable honestly. I would have thought if you had any kind of rationality at all you could readily see you read on me is incredibly lacking in terms of both depth and originality.

[Ranmaru]

Davsto

: I've generally been playing the same since Day 1, just Day 3 I flip flopped a bit more, and pushed more. I want to ask, why do you bring this up today instead of yesterday (Day 3)?

[Gamma Emerald]

prod dodge ish, woke up slightly feverish, will post later with swift coffee injexctions
I don't think I want to vote Ran anymore today

Why?
Also I'm not finding much I feel is wrong with the scumcases I've been seeing so I'm going to try something different. Everyone give me your townreads and reasons why.

[Gamma Emerald]

Shadoweh(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(37)

what the shit
UNVOTE:
while I find out what happened

[MathBlade]

Tell you what, Lycan. If Dan ends up voting someone else besides Dunn, I'll vote Dan.

Horrible. If Dan is town it strongarms him into voted Dunn. If Dan is scum with LQ Dan can just not vote anywhere else.

Is Dan scum?

Possibly?
Anyway this assumes Dunn to be town but I'm still thinking I should
VOTE: LickityQuickety

Automated vote counter didn’t pick this one up correctly.

Editing the prior VoteCount by hand until I can figure out why later tonight.

[Shadoweh]

I fell back asleep. >.>
Gamma: Because he feels authentic and it just feels like he's trying to figure things out. Plus when it looked like he was in trouble things got really quiet and that just makes me think people were comfortable with his lynch and watching him flail.

I changed my mind about LQ. The "I'm more pro-town then you" statement really sticks with me. Someone who's actually town shouldn't be thinking along those lines.
It doesn't matter how pro-town someone is compared to you because your own alignment shouldn't be something you have to think about.

VOTE: LickectyQuick

[Thestatusquo]

You don't think players think about how likely they are to be ML? I definitely do.

[Ranmaru]

Shea: Why did you welcome Davsto to your towny pile in #703? Do you have time to reply to my response to your case tonight?

[Shadoweh]

You don't think players think about how likely they are to be ML? I definitely do.

I think people do get angry about being lynched over people they think are scum, I don't think this is the same thing.
It's like, pre-flip rage? in an "I played so much better then you" way. I'm basically saying it sounds like he doesn't think he's scum.

[Thestatusquo]

Response to Ranmaru, or: More reasons Ran is scum.

Shea #3635:

1. I was wrong when it mattered. That is true. Yet how does that make me scum? Does that go alongside the rest of my play?

2. I do vote a lot, I like to use my vote as a tool. I do care who is lynched, I just change my mind, a lot. I have always tunneled in the past, and being a player with inaccurate reads, I note myself town reading scum. So, I try to pick up a whimsical style similar to Vi. That was indeed 24 hours apart. My reads have been influenced by A50's, and when I see Lycanfire respond to me, it just vibes town to me. Therefore I stop the push. Note that, I was not voting Lycan, but you.

3. Yes, everywhere except Dunn, true. I ignore players like Dunn, accepting that they'd be lynched on a day like today anyway, while prioritizing others that may have scum intent. I was never convinced by your argument he was scum simply for doing nothing.

4. I think you said it yourself, a team of Shea, Quick, and Gamma make sense to my Town point of view, if I think CES is town. There wasn't anything blaringly scummy about CES, only a smidge. I think your point here isn't valid since you yourself hadn't wanted CES before your pool. If I couldn't see the scumminess of CES from that case, I'm not sure why you did. In a skim of NSG's case, I thought 'this is mostly things I have already thought of myself' as some of her points did mention questions I asked to CES.

5. I'll tell you that a few times I purposely tried to swing people I was publicly scumreading onto wagons, like Quick at the time I was pushing CES. Other times, I simply reconsidered the player. I do understand the use of buddying as a tool, and I use it. Usually, I use it with town reads. In this game, this is a game where I only have one strong town read, and that is Gamma. The only other person I could and would have loved working with is Shea/Quick. Quick never really worked with me when I tried. You took a while.

6. I'm not generally cautious, no. I would like you to give an example of how you think I should have played. Generally, I will push for my scum reads to be lynched. You are right, I don't do the 'I don't think it's Dan anymore... I think it's Shea'. Although you quoted a post of me doing that with Lycanfire... Do you mean that I don't publish that in thread? As in, my thought process when I switched gears? I do agree that I do switch gears at the snap of a hat.

---

In general, this is just my playstyle as town. I care more about leading and finding scum, I've just had plenty of trouble actually finding them. It's more of my reads not being accurate, and I'm constantly flip flopping. Also, Quick is the #1 reason for my confusion as well. This is the first time I have flip flopped this much, most especially on Quick. I do like to buddy, I don't think buddying in and of it self is a scumtell. I do like to lead the town in doing what I want, though. This is true. I have already explained this though, this is me coping with the fact I'm not right, so I try to get it right. Then in the end, I get it wrong anyway. I've noticed that being obviously townie, is not the only skill one should have in mafia, and my reads definetly need polishing. I have scum reads that I want to lynch, that I always change my mind on due to my play style of being whimsical, so I can avoid tunneling and being wrong. Saying this in-game undermines my own credibility in game, but it's already shot due to missing the CES wagon.

Self-Meta:

Family Mafia
Crossover Mafia

1) this is missing my point. Yes, you were wrong when it mattered. But the reason this makes you scum is because of the volume of your suspicions. You have a paper trail with literally every player in this game where you have strongly called them both town and scum with the possible exception of Dunn. This gives you plausible deniability. You can claim to have held whatever position is expedient to you at the time. Indeed, we've seen that today. Here are two statements you've made today:

a )

Shadoweh: A50 thought he was scum with CES due to VCA. (Never 2 on the same wagon, except for the lynch, all 3 on it as of Feb 06) I thought the team of Shea, Lycanfire, CES made sense. I pushed them. Then each time Lycan responded, I was like "Hell no my gut is screaming town." It's not depression, I'm looking into the future.

This is true. This IS a thing you said. But its not the whole or even most of the story. The whole of the story includes the fact that you never seriously pushed this with the fervency of your other pushes and when it came right down to it you took many actions both overt and not, which fought against the CES lynch, while firmly declaring him to be town.

b )

(By the way, I give a meta case on Gamma Day 3, I think I strongly backed the reasoning for why I believe Gamma is obvious town, I'd like for you to look at that at least, and tell me what you think)

Again, this is not the whole, or even MOST of the story. It's true you wrote a meta case on gamma. Its true you declared him town. But then you completely ignored your own meta case and declared him scum and attempted to push him when CES was on the block. It is completely disingenuous of you to make statements like this.

I am specifically drawing a delineation between your actions and your words because your words can be used to support any conclusion you want them to support, and today you are doing that to try to deflect suspicion on you. The two above statements are examples. So when we look at the balance of the things you've said, we can't draw meaningful conclusions. We can, however, look at your actions and the results of those actions and theory craft about what you were trying to accomplish.

I think you were trying to accomplish was to create exactly what you're doing today: a situation where you can realistically say "I thought X was town/scum" for any player. And you're literally doing this, but when we drill deeper behind the rhetoric the reality is that you have supported enthusiastically lynches on townies and tried your damndest to stop a lynch on scum. A player who coincidentally and conveniently you never pushed even though you listed him as a scum read several times.

2) This response is missing my point. My point wasn't that you vote a lot, but that your degree of pushes is the same. There is so self reflection that says "huh, if I was wrong about this player who I am now town reading maybe I might be wrong about this player who I am now scum reading." When I see players with the style you're describing here, vote hopping is usually accompanied by information gathering. I.e. the frequency of the votes is used as a tool to discern alignment. It doesn't look to me like thats what you're doing. It looks to me like you're voting and then attempting to get the new person lynched with little regard to the fact that you were just declaring them town earlier. I don't see reaction testing in your posting, I see ambivalence about who eventually gets lynched.

3) Except you don't ignore players like Dunn. Marquis is a very similar player to dunn in this game and you've not ignored him at all. He's been at the top of your suspicions lists several times. You've voted him several times. You've pushed him several times. It's simply not accurate to say you "ignore players like dunn" because we have a player in this game who is very similar to dunn in terms of play and lurking and content who you have not ignored even a little bit. What's the difference between those two players, Ran?

4) If its mostly things you had thought of yourself why weren't you pushing him? Why did you fight against his lynch when his response to the case and to pressure was so bad? Why did you disregard my meta reasons for attacking CES based off of his response?

Also, I said that team made sense not in the sense that it was likely, but in the sense that my teammate cheetory thought that Gamma (in his meta analysis of him) wouldn't take scum unless he had the express purpose of being bus fodder, and that this really only made sense with LQ as a teammate. You are taking it horribly out of context I think. I don't recall saying anything like that any other time.

5) This is a game where you really only have one strong town read, which is gamma, who you spent a large percentage of yesterday trying to get lynched.

I'll just let that sink in.

Anyway, this whole point is just you saying "Yes, I use buddying as scum. Here are some people who I buddied this game." which is basically conceding my point. You frequently tried to bring people along on wagons with you who you had been calling scum earlier. I can really think of only TWO reasons for a player to do that.

a ) You are attempting to buddy, as previously discussed, and repair a relationship for needing to not be voted by them later.

b ) You are attempting to get them on to town wagons so you can attack them for it later.

I really don't see a town motivation for "attempting to get people you are scum reading onto wagons." If you want to tell me what it is I'm all ears.

6) My point is that your reads don't matter. Its not that you lack consistency, but rather that you don't seem to care at all about what you thought previously. When I have a scum read, I have REASONS that I have that scum read. If I then think that player is more likely to be town, I still have those reasons, and I still think about them and I still value my previous reads. An example of that for me this game would be my LQ reads, who I had to grudgingly admit was town because I don't see scum motivation in a lot of the plays he made.

When you go "gamma is scum, lynch gamma right now!" and then ten seconds later you're like "gamma is town, never lynch gamma! gamma, lynch dan with me!" you are basically saying "everything I thought earlier I don't care about now." And I just don't see....ANY reason why that would be the case. The way you disregard your own thoughts and reads suggests to me that you a) don't care about them very much or b ) they were never particularly well thought out in the first place.

Anyway, yes davsto I'm joining you.
VOTE: ranmaru

[Thestatusquo]

You don't think players think about how likely they are to be ML? I definitely do.

I think people do get angry about being lynched over people they think are scum, I don't think this is the same thing.
It's like, pre-flip rage? in an "I played so much better then you" way. I'm basically saying it sounds like he doesn't think he's scum.

Wouldn't you expect a town player to not think they're scum?

O.o

[Shadoweh]

Ugh you should know what I mean, that's referring to what he thinks of Dunn not himself.

[Thestatusquo]

Oh. That makes a lot more sense.