Open 713: Jungle Republic [Game Over]

[Montosh]

He's not wrong. My desire to lynch mafia largely stems from the fact that I don't know for sure who scum are.

If you think you're sure you've outed a WW, you should lynch him.

I'm not a wolf. I'm leaning tchill/Esp as mafia.

Thor, what do you think about the skitter kill?

My presumption was to set me up - Skitter's last claim yesterday was that I should be lynched if she died.

That was my thought as well.

[Beefster]

Would you rather lynch wolf or mafia?

That's a loaded question.

[Beefster]

More votes on Montosh.

[Not_Mafia]

Would you rather lynch wolf or mafia?

That's a loaded question.

It's not, have you read this day?

[Tchill13]

More votes on Montosh.

pretty funny how you're the only other wagon and you're pushing that.

[Espeonage]

Lemme digest, but I thought skitter or I were dying night 1 so idk about the kill spec stuff. Possibly trying to distance from the kill.

Also I think Thor WW kills skitter anyway to try and avoid the lynch. But also not overly likely, Thor is better shot of being Mafia at this point.

I don't see Montosh ww either because I think ww's are on A50 lynch wagon. So I think that Beef is the best bet for ww folowed by TChill. Thor/Montosh/NM is my mafia pool in that order.

[Espeonage]

So it's 3-2-1

Town death 2-2-1, game over if ww doesn't kill mafia, have to lynch ww in mylo to go to lylo.
mafia death 3-1-1, ww kills mafia mylo, ww kills town, same as above.
ww death 3-2, two days of lylo.

We should be trying to lynch not town, with an emphasis on mafia.

Vote: Thor

will join on Montosh if forced but definitely would much rather Thor.

[Not_Mafia]

Will lynch Thor or Beefster

[Not_Mafia]

I think I said that already

[Not_Mafia]

but whatever

[Thor665]

I think ww's are on A50 lynch wagon.

Why do you think they'd bus at that point?

So it's 3-2-1

Town death 2-2-1, game over if ww doesn't kill mafia, have to lynch ww in mylo to go to lylo.
mafia death 3-1-1, ww kills mafia mylo, ww kills town, same as above.
ww death 3-2, two days of lylo.

We should be trying to lynch not town, with an emphasis on mafia.

How do you get to this conclusion?
Explicitly your WW death line is the most beneficial for town and doesn't hand game over situations to scum.
You're smarter than this - walk me through why you think you're right, or I'll know you're lying for an agenda.

[Thor665]

Also it wouldn't be two days of lylo - if town lynches correctly they'd actually have the ability for *two* lynch attempts at the last mafia.

That's two scum in three lynches.
This is so bog obvious.

[Espeonage]

Ok. Lynching town is really fucking bad. Leaves an incredibly slim chance of a win.

So step 1. Don't lynch town. Do whatever it takes to avoid a mislynch.

Now aside from maths I can end here because the gap between beef and chill is small in the ww stakes. And you are miles ahead on the mafia flip likelihood.

But my logic is that a mafia flip helps ww sort out last scum, so looking at that practically. You dead, ww shoots someone. By then the mafia is p much confirmed even if town dies bc it takes out from the small pool. And then we have a semi solved game again choosing between the ww candidates but now knowing who mafia is.

Look lynching for ww ends in the same coin flip as far as I read. But with much less chance of a town lynch today.

And honestly this is just for the benefit of the other players that want to see the response because now people might vote you.

[Espeonage]

Also it wouldn't be two days of lylo - if town lynches correctly they'd actually have the ability for *two* lynch attempts at the last mafia.

That's two scum in three lynches.
This is so bog obvious.

I did miss this bit. Mafia have no night kill. :/

So can lynch through the whole pool.

unvote

[Espeonage]

Actually yeah you're right bc if we get the ww wrong presumably they can not be an idiot and hope to sway.

Then it's just I don't be an idiot.

And scum Thor wants this bc can win off partner potentially.

vote:beef

[Beefster]

*facepalm*

Lynching the wolf turns this into nightless, so I guess lynching wolves is the way to go... But like Esp said, lynching town is still bad.

Get those votes off me. I may not be playing very towny, but you're dead wrong.

[Not_Mafia]

Who's scum?

[Thor665]

Actually yeah you're right bc if we get the ww wrong presumably they can not be an idiot and hope to sway.

Then it's just I don't be an idiot.

And scum Thor wants this bc can win off partner potentially.

vote:beef

And, from a slew of posts I was about to rage on - common sense.
Think you'll have any luck talking to TChill and NM? They're both pointedly ignoring me while still advancing bad lynch theory, which makes me convinced at least one, if not both, are scum, because it's really obvious I'm right if you stop and look at things, yeah?

Why do you see Beef as more likely Wolf than Montosh? I asked you earlier methinks on this same point, and it's a really big point for the day.

[Thor665]

I'll admit I do consider it well within NM's playstyle as town to advance really bad lynch theory.
i don't know enough about TChill to say one way or the other, but he hasn't struck me as obvious daft prior to this.

[Beefster]

Who's scum?

Montosh is the only one I'm super sure of. I could see any of the other four of you as scum, but I'd have to take a closer look.

I also just realized that there are only 6 players left.

I think TChill has properly redeemed the Korina slot, so the remaining scum is in {Thor, Not_Mafia, Espeonage}

or perhaps a better format: (from most likely to be scum to least)
- Montosh
- Thor
- Not_Mafia
- Espeonage
- Tchill

But seriously. Get those votes off me. I'm town.

[Montosh]

Would you rather lynch wolf or mafia?

That's a loaded question.

It's not, have you read this day?

Seriously though can you answer this question? It's kinda the discussion today.

Who's scum?

Montosh is the only one I'm super sure of. I could see any of the other four of you as scum, but I'd have to take a closer look.

I also just realized that there are only 6 players left.

I think TChill has properly redeemed the Korina slot, so the remaining scum is in {Thor, Not_Mafia, Espeonage}

or perhaps a better format: (from most likely to be scum to least)
- Montosh
- Thor
- Not_Mafia
- Espeonage
- Tchill

But seriously. Get those votes off me. I'm town.

I don't think tchill is town, like at all. Neither is Esp. They're probably both mafia. Meanwhile, the people in your top two scumslots are people who hammered their supposed partner and hard-defended their supposed partner and then stayed off the wagon. Both your big scumreads put themselves in the open like that?

VOTE: wilky

Read through his ISO, yeah definitely went after low-hanging fruit. I'll give this one a go.

Looks like a reluctant bus.

VOTE: Montosh

It's a sheepable wagon.

You say you're gonna ISO me and then come back a few posts later, quoting my

hammer post

of all things to justify sheeping one of the two main wagons of the day, which is the one not on you.

[Not_Mafia]

Why were you defending wilky, did you think he was town?

[Not_Mafia]

The main thing stopping me scumreading Tchill is that I can't place with a mafia partner and I don't think he's wolf

[Montosh]

Why were you defending wilky, did you think he was town?

Is this question directed at me? I thought the wagon on him was scummy. Mostly cause people weren't posting reasoning and blindly sheeping you. I did not think he was likely to be scum.

I thought this was bad, and I wanted people to at least explain what they thought was scummy about wilky. I got skitter to come out and explain the reasoning, I looked at it and it seemed to fit.

[Beefster]

Montosh is the correct lynch today.