Open 713: Jungle Republic [Game Over]

[Tchill13]

So we can't risk lynching a townie which is why we're against Thor?

I think we should lynch beef or montosh today for sure. I doubt either are town. I think one is ww and one is scum. Mostly because of yalls reads though I'm not sure how to determine a WW from a scum. I do think the fact beef pushed montosh, the only other wagon, as beef was getting pushed was pretty telling tough. I think we should lynch beef.

[Thor665]

Do you really think you have the cred to start a wagon right now?

If you're talking to me - yes, I do, especially since logic is on my side and you're trying hard to ignore it.
I'll agree you're currently on a larger wagon, but at least one of the votes there thinks it's a wolf, so my overall concept is winning, now it's just a matter of sorting the wolf.

If you're talking to me because you think I want to start a wagon on someone other than Montosh - no, and you're being silly.

I'm not sure how to determine a WW from a scum.

I would suggest looking for associations with flipped scum - it's the same as forming any scum read after flips.

[mutantdevle]

Votecount 4.1

(3 L-1)

Beefster - voted by: Not_Mafia, Tchill13, Espeonage.

(2)

Montosh - voted by: Thor665, Beefster.

(1)

Espeonage - voted by: Montosh.

With 6 players alive, 4 votes are needed for a majority. Only 3 votes are needed for a no lynch.

Day 4 ends in (expired on 2018-03-28 17:45:00)

[Thor665]

I'm starting to have doubts about Montosh just because he isn't leaping onto Beef.

[Thor665]

@Montosh - looking at your iso, frankly, even if you're town why aren't you on Beef? What pushed Espeo into more likely wolf territory exactly? You've been gunning for Beef for ages.

[Montosh]

I mean, beef has mostly been a general scumread up until now, for behaviour in posting and in wagon sheeping. But I had him more pegged as a mafia with people (like laser) who flipped town so it forced me to re-evaluate that. His behaviour Day 3, namely starting off voting wilky but just melting off that wagon once it really became serious, suggested a possibility of being a wolf. But what makes me hesitate on that read is mostly that he seems perfectly willing to wagon me, when wolf!beef would know perfectly well that shit would hit the fan once I didn't flip as a werewolf. Now that is further moderated by the fact that he only came out with his vote on me after it became clear he was another possibly wagon. Wolf!beef would obviously prefer anyone else, even if it made his life difficult Day 5.

Not_Mafia is mostly in my wolf read list for the leash a wolf idea, which I consider to be pretty bad from a town perspective, for most of the same reasons as outlined above. I see it as a pro-wolf idea because it makes someone else seem obvwolf without having to actually flip them yet. I did initially agree with the notion of hitting mafia, mostly because I had strong mafia reads than wolf reads, but it doesn't make sense from the perspective of someone with a strong wolf read. Now, my read on N_M is moderated by the fact that he did tunnel wilky from early on, but I really can see that being a distancing bus that plays into his tunnelling meta.

So my wolf pool is NM first, followed fairly closely by beef.

I've got a bit of a townread on you for a few reasons. I have a hard time buying that you hard-defended your mafia partner when they (A50) seemed a pretty good shot for the lynch, and then stayed off the wagon. And also that you stayed off the wilky wagon. So I'm not super convinced on mafia!thor. I consider wolf!thor more likely, except for that skitter kill, which screams trying to set you up, given that skitter outright said at the end of the day to lynch you if she died. It could still be you trying to WIFOM us out of lynching you, but I think it definitely reduces the probability.

That kinda leaves Esp and tchill as mafia by elimination. There's a bit more than that, Esp pushed the A50 wagon at the beginning of Day 2, but ended up melting off of it towards the end.

Now tchill is also agreeing with N_M's idea, which I think is pro-wolf, so there's some uncertainty there, but there's incentive for mafia to agree, especially if they don't know who the wolf is with any certainty.

My hesitation with beef largely boils down to this. If we lynch town we're pretty much screwed. But I think we're pretty screwed if we don't lynch wolf, because then tomorrow the wolf will have an easy time of passing me off as the wolf and lynching me, especially if they can convince the mafia that I'm the wolf.

So we need to gamesolve. I was hoping to get some mafia pings to help with that, rather than just focusing on wolf. Beef isn't a bad wolf lynch, but I still think N_M is better, and we can't afford to screw it up today.

[Thor665]

N_M seems like such an unlikely wolf to me though, if that was a bus it did a brilliant job distancing him. That feels like he legit wanted that flip.

[Thor665]

I dunno, my reads have been dreck all game, but it doesn't feel likely.

[Espeonage]

Actually yeah you're right bc if we get the ww wrong presumably they can not be an idiot and hope to sway.

Then it's just I don't be an idiot.

And scum Thor wants this bc can win off partner potentially.

vote:beef

And, from a slew of posts I was about to rage on - common sense.
Think you'll have any luck talking to TChill and NM? They're both pointedly ignoring me while still advancing bad lynch theory, which makes me convinced at least one, if not both, are scum, because it's really obvious I'm right if you stop and look at things, yeah?

Why do you see Beef as more likely Wolf than Montosh? I asked you earlier methinks on this same point, and it's a really big point for the day.

@Espeo - bolded the question for your ease.
Please stop avoiding it, otherwise I'll just wagon you out of spite.

Bc montosh was not active in lynching a50.

[Montosh]

vote: tchill

Hard policy or I replace out.

Damn it. Going through the thread and found this. Given that the Korina/tchill slot was already on a lot of people's lynch lists, this seems like something that reasonably could have caused a lynch, were it not for the A50 wagon. I don't see this as something Esp does to his partner. That kinda screws with my tchill/Esp mafia theory.

N_M seems like such an unlikely wolf to me though, if that was a bus it did a brilliant job distancing him. That feels like he legit wanted that flip.

I sorta agree, but I'm having a hard time reconciling that with his terrible ideas today.

[Thor665]

Bc montosh was not active in lynching a50.

Agreed, he was active in a pretty robust defense though. Why do you think wolves would have opted to not defend at that stage?

I sorta agree, but I'm having a hard time reconciling that with his terrible ideas today.

With N_M my big advice is to try to assess the motivations of the actions, not the logic.
I still kinda don't think that looks like a bus.
I can't personally remember his bussing meta, but I tend to presume it's not near tunneling for multiple phases.

[Thor665]

Like, if there were two wolves alive today, wolf's chances would be looking *really* good right now.

[Not_Mafia]

But you now agree with going after mafia today and forcing Wolf to try and NK Mafia?

Again, I said that from the beginning of the day. Yes.

Ready for hammer

If Beef flips Mafia, wolf kill Thor.
If Beef flips Town (I can't see this happening), wolf kill Tchill.
If Beef flips Wolf, we're in LyLo anyway

[Not_Mafia]

Ignore the quotes

[Thor665]

How does Beef being town clear me of being Mafia?
That makes no sense if you think I'm Mafia only if Beef is.

[Not_Mafia]

It doesn't it just makes Tchill the best kill

[Tchill13]

Hey NM. I'm town. Wolf shouldn't kill me.

[Montosh]

I'm not sure that wilky is scum.

Why do you refuse to sort anyone else in a game with much more mafia members?

In response to N_M's Day 3 vote on wilky right off the bat.

VOTE: wilky

If I was right about laser and bujabar I doubt I was 3/3 on reads.

I'm assuming I was wrong about you being scum.

And then votes wilky only a few posts later, with the pretty terrible reasoning that N_M is town because he can't possibly be 3/3 on reads, and so he should sheep N_M.

I see

wilky/beefster/skitter/Montosh

What's funny is I would only argue beef in that whole group. I wouldn't even argue it that hard tbh.

Argues that only beef is scummy from this grouping, despite the fact that he is currently voting wilky, a member of that group.

I recall that I tried to get you to explain your reasoning yesterday, but you weren't all that specific. Why the turn on wilky?

[Montosh]

Bc montosh was not active in lynching a50.

Agreed, he was active in a pretty robust defense though. Why do you think wolves would have opted to not defend at that stage?

I sorta agree, but I'm having a hard time reconciling that with his terrible ideas today.

With N_M my big advice is to try to assess the motivations of the actions, not the logic.
I still kinda don't think that looks like a bus.
I can't personally remember his bussing meta, but I tend to presume it's not near tunneling for multiple phases.

I can see wolf motivation though. Recall that N_M did come a bit late to the party (no fault of his own, didn't get a daystart PM). But before he arrived wilky had got into a bit of early conflict with some people (laser and yourself iirc).

But yeah it does require good foresight, hence my relative uncertainty compared to before.

[Thor665]

It doesn't it just makes Tchill the best kill

That literally makes no logical sense.

[Not_Mafia]

It does

[Montosh]

I wish you would stop just asserting things.

[Montosh]

Without any reasoning.

[Thor665]

It does

Walk me through the sense or I'll just keep on presuming you're claiming Mafia.

[Tchill13]

I was arguing that only beef could be town from that whole group. As in I agreed with the rest of his scum reads but would argue beef being scum.