Micro 792: Three in One (Day 6)

[Bambietta Basterbine]

Open to say I'm not the Tracker. Very much against being a policy Lynch in like five pages when you can still be looking for scum instead.

Penguin, what do newbies usually do here in this particular setup? I only played the last one.

[PenguinPower]

Shared vig power? Hopefully you don't have to have consensus...that would ruin it for me.

[Gamma Emerald]

I mean they are killed in a sense

[PenguinPower]

Penguin, what do newbies usually do here in this particular setup? I only played the last one.

What do you mean "what do they do?"

[Mathdino]

inb4 "ONGOING GAMES"

anyway bambi's anti-town potential has just been significantly reduced, congrats

this setup is basically "lynch one scum, avoid letting scum kill power roles, auto win on D3"

[Bambietta Basterbine]

I mean what I mean. What do they usually do day one? Because I don't think a policy Lynch is something that happens that often, or atleast that fast.

Last time I was in the newbie queue it was much crappier.

[Something_Smart]

Tracker claim is a terrible idea.

[PenguinPower]

I mean what I mean. What do they usually do day one? Because I don't think a policy Lynch is something that happens that often, or atleast that fast.

Last time I was in the newbie queue it was much crappier.

Can't say that I've seen a policy lynch in the newbie queue. Why is that relevant?

[Mathdino]

A major problem I see is that, as Tracker, I think optimal play is to claim and publicly ask for protection.

As tracker, you know that you're paired with one of:
B. Cop or Jailkeeper
C. Doctor

In the case of Doctor, just play Follow The Cop with the Tracker.

In the case of Cop/JK, ask for protection. From scum's perspective, they don't know if Tracker is paired with Cop or Jailkeeper. As such, they hae no incentive to kill the tracker for fear of wasting their kill. This means either Tracker gets to be a confirmed protected named townie (assuming no counterclaims) or gets to be 1 of 2 investigatives, which is a fantastic buff for town.

consider that if we start the claim and don't stop, it gives scum a road map for who to kill

[PenguinPower]

Probably should have considered if everyone wanted to participate before you started.

[Mathdino]

if i wanted to blatantly disregard consent i'd just fakeclaim tracker in my first post

fairly sure this playerlist can be reasoned with

no one has actually said why trackerclaim is a bad strategy

[Something_Smart]

A1: Cop/Neapolitan - Scum get screwed if they fakeclaim tracker but at least they ensure that they don't hit two VT's N1 (which can cost them the game)
A2: JK/Doctor - Scum can safely claim tracker, neutralizing BOTH town PR's
A3: Cop/Doctor - Scum can safely claim tracker
B1: Cop/Tracker - Scum can kill the tracker N1
B2: JK/Tracker - Scum can hit the tracker N1, neutralizing BOTH town PR's and revealing the exact setup
B3: Neapolitan/Doctor - Scum will know the exact setup
C1: Cop/VT - Scum can safely claim tracker (and NEVER be counterclaimed)
C2: JK/VT - Scum can safely claim tacker (and NEVER be counterclaimed)
C3: Tracker/Doctor - Scum will know the exact setup

[Something_Smart]

That's good for town in MAYBE 2 out of 9 cases.

[Something_Smart]

Make that MAYBE 3 out of 9.

[Bambietta Basterbine]

Don't the scum have a better chance of knowing the exact setup anyway since one of their members show if it's A, B, or C, Smart? Saying "scum will know the exact setup" can honestly apply to all of them.

[Something_Smart]

No, they only know 3 possible setups. In B and C, they will know for sure what the setup is.

For instance, if it's B3 and we do the tracker claim strategy, scum can fakeclaim cop to avoid being lynched and nobody can call them out until a PR dies (and then it's a 1v1).

[Mathdino]

A1: Cop/Neapolitan - Scum get screwed if they fakeclaim tracker but at least they ensure that they don't hit two VT's N1 (which can cost them the game)
A2: JK/Doctor - Scum can safely claim tracker, neutralizing BOTH town PR's
A3: Cop/Doctor - Scum can safely claim tracker
B1: Cop/Tracker - Scum can kill the tracker N1
B2: JK/Tracker - Scum can hit the tracker N1, neutralizing BOTH town PR's and revealing the exact setup
B3: Neapolitan/Doctor - Scum will know the exact setup
C1: Cop/VT - Scum can safely claim tracker (and NEVER be counterclaimed)
C2: JK/VT - Scum can safely claim tacker (and NEVER be counterclaimed)
C3: Tracker/Doctor - Scum will know the exact setup

A. 1/3 probability of getting immediately fucked on claiming tracker is terrible. Also D1 fakeclaiming as scum is in general terrible. You get screwed the moment 1 TPR dies.

B. 50% chance scum CAN'T hit the tracker because JK will protect them. I don't believe tracker is in any way a useful enough role to justify trying to use their actual ability rather than as a named townie. Trackers don't get guilties.
Plus, tracker will know the exact setup faster than scum based on whether or not they get blocked.

C. 1/3 chance again of being completely fucked by fakeclaiming.

That basically throws the game to a 1/3 call in A or C, considering someone can directly counterclaim.

I also don't see disadvantage in scum knowing the exact setup. Rolecop will figure it out before town does. My goal is reducing the disparity between town knowledge and scum knowledge.

[Mathdino]

Well, that's one goal.

Honestly the biggest issue I see in newbie games is TPRs fucking dying on N1. Tracker claiming makes it much less likely they'll die imo. Assuming we lynch a VT today, that makes it a 80% chance scum hits another VT, which basically solves the game for us.

[Bambietta Basterbine]

But if it's a Jailkeeper with the Tracker, I don't see how that helps the situation if they are jailed every night to stop the! From getting killed.

[Something_Smart]

Cop/neapolitan is already bad for scum. I don't think goon lynch followed by guaranteed PR NK is that bad of an outcome for scum, and I certainly think that the reward in the other two setups is worth it. (If a PR died after a tracker claimed D1 and somebody counterclaimed a different role, are you really saying you'd side with the counterclaimer?)

And scum can increase their odds in C by having the member they intend to have fakeclaim wait until most townies have claimed.

In any event, I'm with PenguinPower. Not participating.

[northsidegal]

I was all for the bulletproof strategy but I don't really see the benefits of the tracker strategy yet. Don't really want to claim anything for now.

[Mathdino]

But if it's a Jailkeeper with the Tracker, I don't see how that helps the situation if they are jailed every night to stop the! From getting killed.

because tracker is a dumb useless role anyway and is more useful as an innocent child that can't die

Cop/neapolitan is already bad for scum. I don't think goon lynch followed by guaranteed PR NK is that bad of an outcome for scum, and I certainly think that the reward in the other two setups is worth it. (If a PR died after a tracker claimed D1 and somebody counterclaimed a different role, are you really saying you'd side with the counterclaimer?)

And scum can increase their odds in C by having the member they intend to have fakeclaim wait until most townies have claimed.

In any event, I'm with PenguinPower. Not participating.

Then why don't all scum D1 fakeclaim in newbie games?

Like, they already do that when they're run up to be lynched. But they don't out of the clear blue.

Exchanging one scum for a TPR on D1 gives us a 61% chance of winning with random shots, and that's just assuming that the remaining TPR doesn't get any useful results.

[Mathdino]

3 people willing to say they disagree with the strategy yet unwilling to discuss it in the MD

we're gonna have some fun conversations after this

the point is this, there are two scenarios

A. Tracker claims. What exactly is the disadvantage here?

B. Everyone claims not tracker. What exactly is the disadvantage here?

I'm running with the assumption that scum fakeclaiming tracker is just as suboptimal as it would be in any game.

[Mathdino]

I would also point out that if you're worried about scum fakeclaiming tracker, the solution is to strongarm people into a claiming order to ensure that they CAN'T just claim tracker at the end of the order.

[Something_Smart]

because tracker is a dumb useless role anyway and is more useful as an innocent child that can't die

tracker is a cop after a scumflip, what are you talking about?