Micro 794: Miss List II (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

Me agreeing to get shot in 3p LyLo boils what should objectively be a 2/3 chance by that point (because we get 2 kills and 3p) down to a 50/50. Which seems fine on the surface, but it's less than 100% likely we even get that far. Planning that out is strictly suboptimal for town.

The answer matters strategically.

Going on the assumption that the majority of people's top scumreads (even mine) are only slightly better than average, this is basically how the game gets lost by town:

- We lynch a scummy individual who actively campaigns for the lynch of a scummy townie. Scumteam helps orchestrate this lynch.

- Scumteam puts that person's top scumspect on the Miss List.

- Lynchee shoots, we lose.

I have a few strategies then, in increasing order of complexity.

A. If you get lynched, and your top scumspect is on the list, don't shoot them. Even if they're scum, there's a 75% chance of hitting scum elsewhere. Your reads would have to be at least 50% better than random in ordinary games to bet the game on it. Shoot randomly if you're around 75% sure (most people overstate their reads accuracy).

B. If you see your top scumspect on the list, don't immediately shoot them. Find any pair of players you believe can't both be scum (two pairs if you're feeling adventurous), and shoot randomly elsewhere.

I don't think we should discount the idea of shooting randomly from a pool of people. Scumteam might have sacrificial lambs in place already, i.e. people they know will likely get shot at night. It's better, IMO, to save those people for the lynches.

C. We use confscum Creature as a way to communicate with the dead. More on this in a bit.

[Mathdino]

NotMafia seems far too composed and putting on a similar “Look at me, I’m casual about not doing much to scum-hunt or help people sort me as Town” move that Creature is. The NotMafia I am familiar with is much more hyperactive and tries as Town even if his historic results have been poor. And while relational links are very weak pre-flip what I’m seeing with his interactions with Math also put him here.

Creature is lurking so hard that I am finding it harder to believe he is Town. Town Creature in games I’ve played with in the past (including a Something Smart joint) has been much more active.

You clearly know nothing of both Not_Mafia and Creature scumgames/towngames.

You should see N_M play vig sometime.

[Something_Smart]

VC 1.3

Chickadee (3)- CultOfAthena, implosion, PantherPunt
PantherPunt (2)- Not_Mafia, Mathdino
Not_Mafia (1)- BuJaber
Mathdino (1)- MagnaofIllusion

Not voting (2)- Creature, Chickadee

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

(expired on 2018-04-05 13:00:00)

Mod notes:

[CultOfAthena]

C. We use confscum Creature as a way to communicate with the dead. More on this in a bit.

Nope, sorry. Already thought about this and don't think the mod appreciates it.

[CultOfAthena]

By the way, I don't see how any of that relates to you agreeing to what would be a game losing play if you were town?

[Mathdino]

C. We use confscum Creature as a way to communicate with the dead. More on this in a bit.

Work in progress.

We (or whoever we lynch) create a list of 3 people who we propose to be the scumteam (besides Creature).

If whoever we lynch sees those 3 people on the Miss List, they shoot Creature. If not, they shoot elsewhere using their best judgment.

If Creature is shot, we have a pool of 3 people who must contain 2 or 3 scum. We lynch the towniest of the bunch, and if we hit town, we have that townie shoot between the other two based on whether a 4th person shows up on the Miss List.

If Creature is not shot, we reevaluate in the morning, knowing there's town in that group.

[CultOfAthena]

Nevermind on what I said then, looks like we were thinking of different things.

[Mathdino]

C. We use confscum Creature as a way to communicate with the dead. More on this in a bit.

Nope, sorry. Already thought about this and don't think the mod appreciates it.

Wtf? How is that against the rules?

By the way, I don't see how any of that relates to you agreeing to what would be a game losing play if you were town?

It's not game losing if I pick right. It just agrees to what would be a 50/50 play. Like, I understand the concept of "Mathdino is scum when he's aggressively wrong". The solution is for me to not be aggressively wrong.

[Mathdino]

Here's an example. If you lynch me, I will shoot Creature if and only if I see {Cult, Chick} and one of Bujaber/implosion.

If Creature dies in the morning, you know that Cult/Chick must contain scum. If one of them is town, you know Bujaber/implosion must contain scum.

If Creature DOESN'T die in the morning, you know that I did NOT see Cult/Chick/Buplosion, meaning that group must contain at least 2 town. This makes it optimal to lynch outside of that group, and force scummy people inside that group to sacrifice.

Rinse and repeat. If you lynch town tomorrow, they give a list of people they'll shoot Creature if they see.

[Mathdino]

Following off of that,

VOTE: Cult

More than 50% likely to be scum IMO.

On scumflip, Chickadee should sacrifice, since she's self-admitted lynchbait and that was a transparent busplay.

On townflip, I trust this to shoot scum regardless of Chickadee's presence on the list.

[CultOfAthena]

That example would be a lot easier to parse if you didn't use "one of bu/implosion".

That vote is a scumclaim, by the way.

[Mathdino]

implosion and Cult are really the main people I trust to do setup-breaking with right now, but:

Given that we have confscum, and we can use them to communicate with the dead, at what point is it actually just better for us to lynch good but paranoia-generating players who are likely to be town? Lynching scum sends us into sacrifice WIFOM, which is not something I really want to get into.

If it seems like it's better to lynch town, I'll fall on the sword and try to come up with a plan to get maximum information out of what I see tonight. Cult is also a good candidate there I think.

[Mathdino]

That example would be a lot easier to parse if you didn't use "one of bu/implosion".

That vote is a scumclaim, by the way

.

in what universe do you actually believe this wtf

[CultOfAthena]

It's not game losing if I pick right. It just agrees to what would be a 50/50 play. Like, I understand the concept of "Mathdino is scum when he's aggressively wrong". The solution is for me to not be aggressively wrong.

Have you ever agreed to "lynch him and then lynch me if I'm wrong" before?


Also, quoting this again for people's consideration. I still believe it's best to agree beforehand that two people should sacrifice.

On an unrelated note, I've been thinking about it, and I think the best play is to always have two people who we think are either the scummiest or who we think are scum together be the ones to sacrifice. If they're both scum, neither will be able to sacrifice and we'll essentially have two guilties, and in the other situations (one town and one scum or two town), I don't think we're any worse off than if just one person was set to sacrifice.

[CultOfAthena]

That example would be a lot easier to parse if you didn't use "one of bu/implosion".

That vote is a scumclaim, by the way

.

in what universe do you actually believe this wtf

I'm obvious town.

[Mathdino]

It's not game losing if I pick right. It just agrees to what would be a 50/50 play. Like, I understand the concept of "Mathdino is scum when he's aggressively wrong". The solution is for me to not be aggressively wrong.

Have you ever agreed to "lynch him and then lynch me if I'm wrong" before?

Also, quoting this again for people's consideration. I still believe it's best to agree beforehand that two people should sacrifice.

On an unrelated note, I've been thinking about it, and I think the best play is to always have two people who we think are either the scummiest or who we think are scum together be the ones to sacrifice. If they're both scum, neither will be able to sacrifice and we'll essentially have two guilties, and in the other situations (one town and one scum or two town), I don't think we're any worse off than if just one person was set to sacrifice.

No, but I generally always say "you can read me by whether I'm alive at the end and I still haven't nailed scum". The more I'm right, the more likely it is I'm town. Plus, I don't do "lynch me if I'm wrong" precisely because I'm never that confident about my reads.
Were you looking for me just saying "No I won't agree to that because I'm town"? It's more complicated than that. The 50/50 seems fine on the surface but really takes us from a 2/3 to a 1/2 chance.

I'm not sure about the double sacrifice yet tbh. It seems like it's better only if we take the view of "we should avoid lynching town" which I'm not sure is true.

[Mathdino]

That example would be a lot easier to parse if you didn't use "one of bu/implosion".

That vote is a scumclaim, by the way

.

in what universe do you actually believe this wtf

I'm obvious town.

that is by no means true

besides i'm not voting you because you're my top scumread, i'm voting you in line with my current strategy which is "lynch strong players i'm paranoid of"

[Mathdino]

Actually this strategy might work best on d2 with one scum down

It'll be probabilistically easier to call the scumteam on d2 than on d1

So in that case, I volunteer to be lynched on d2 as long as we keep creature alive

[Mathdino]

let's resolve this instead

VOTE: Chickadee

tomorrow can be implosion me or cult

[MagnaofIllusion]

I also feel like we're being really slow to form wagons? Which seems meh. Wagons are good here. The difference between a town lynch and a scum lynch isn't even that high right now and associative tells are possibly valuable.

Thought experiment Implosion - what does this fact tell you about the composition of the scum team in general?

--

Cult you could probably look at most of my games and see that I'm lynchbait. Seriously just take your pick.

Fun fact – I took a quick look at Chickadee’s most recent 5 completed games on site and came up with the following:

Mini Normal 1989 -

Chickadee, who was a Town Doctor, has been killed Night 4.

Mini Theme 1927 -

Spoiler: Alive
Chickadee - Mike Ehrmantraut, Mafia JOAT

– Translation Endgamed Town in Win

Micro 769 -

Chickadee Vanilla Town Lynched D1

Mini Theme 1968 -

Spoiler: Tasty Bread (8/13)
Chickadee EspeciallyTheLies

– Translation Survived with all scum dead

Mini Normal 1957 -

Chickadee, Mafia Even-Night Gunsmith, Lynched Day 2

@Chicka

– I’d like some insight from you as to why you agree with Math’s lynchbait assessment because these 5 games don’t seem to bear that out. Only one had you as Town lynched Day 1 and the only other game that you died by lynch was Day 2 as scum. Now this is just these first 5 completed games I saw in your ISO so if you have something to say to the contray I would love to hear it.

[Mathdino]

I think she would've been lynched in anything upick had she not revealed as innocent child

Let's just lynch her if cult is so confident

[MagnaofIllusion]

wat

if chickadee-town is objectively scummy to the point that
1. multiple townies have suspected her
2. it's really easy to scumread her as scum

then why would i want to join a chickadee wagon when doing so was literally my scum strategy twice in a row

So is the point here you are more worried about not being perceived as playing to your scum meta?

And in that situation
Do we really trust his ability to shoot scum

You should see N_M play vig sometime.

Putting aside the fact that Day 1 is the best time to lynch a player you don’t trust to generally shoot – please tell me more about NotMafia’s Vig prowess given you don’t trust him to shoot into a 80% scum pool Day 1 if he is Town.

--

I don't really like doing super detailed reads, because at that point you're just telling scum what they're doing right or wrong

Why do you feel this way given the set-up? Scum have very little agency to make kills – it requires them being lynched which is suboptimal since they can only win if a Town is mislynched and misfires. Odds of that happening only get reasonable with 1 or 2 scum left. So you are sacrificing showing your thought processes which allow people to read you more easily for a benefit that is frankly marginal at best.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If we just lynch creature straight up, we don't have a plan in place for who to sacrifice

Lynch Creature - Math sacrifices is my thought given how confident you are he is scum and how hard you are working to have him lynched later.

VOTE: Creature

[Mathdino]

Lynching creature right now is strictly bad for town. Please see where I'm coming from

[Mathdino]

Putting aside the fact that Day 1 is the best time to lynch a player you don’t trust to generally shoot – please tell me more about NotMafia’s Vig prowess given you don’t trust him to shoot into a 80% scum pool Day 1 if he is Town.

He's terrible as vig, and doesn't really give a shit as town in my experience. My point is I don't think you really have the ability to read Not_Mafia