Open 717: C9++ [GAME OVER:TOWN WINS]

[Gamma Emerald]

let me ask you all a hypothetical question. If you were a cop in this game who would you have checked tonight? I of course don't want you to answer in thread but only to yourself in your mind, If the answer is JJD for that hammer then are limiting yourself to me being a Godfather, an investigation immune SK, or a townie. Said another way the chances of me being scum have dropped down by 50% for that hammer and it has nothing to do with being too scummy to be scum bs but more to do with the fact that I simply cannot be a goon or RB knowing there might be a cop in the game and draw attention to myself like that.

You'd literally be the worst possible Cop investigation as you're probably going to be the lynch today or vigged last night. A cop should never waste an investigation on such a player.

The optimal choices as Cop is to pick someone that isn't too townie/scummy and doesn't look like being the lynch or NK any time soon -- as this way if you get an innocent result, you don't have to out yourself to protect them D2 and you don't run the risk of your target being NK'ed.

Da da da daaaa Hoopla knows proper cop play

[pinturicchio]

Perfect.
VOTE: Fredrick
I fucking knew it. FoS Uglyduck and Mylo

[Gamma Emerald]

UNVOTE:
I'm not sure why JJD said to blame them for a ML if they were cop, but I'm going to unvote for now

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE: for now.

Perfect.
VOTE: Fredrick
I fucking knew it. FoS Uglyduck and Mylo

Mmm, this isn't a slamdunk. JJD could still easily be scum. If he believes he's going down today no matter what, fakeclaiming Cop to get a mislynch (and out another possible Cop) is actually a good play. I would definitely consider this play as scum if I was almost certainly going to be lynched D2.

My first instincts are that it feels fake, but regardless, lets not quicklynch Frederick either until everyone checks in. I want to think about this.

[UglyDuck]

Perfect.
VOTE: Fredrick
I fucking knew it. FoS Uglyduck and Mylo

in my limited experience with you.. you strike me as too good of a player to so openly buy into this.

[pinturicchio]

Are you guys serious? A fakeclaim being on L-2? If he's fakeclaiming he's dead on D3, let me believe he's not that stupid

[pinturicchio]

Perfect.
VOTE: Fredrick
I fucking knew it. FoS Uglyduck and Mylo

in my limited experience with you.. you strike me as too good of a player to so openly buy into this.

Uh, thanks, I guess? Hahahaha I'm too far of being a good player in this site.

[Gamma Emerald]

Are you guys serious? A fakeclaim being on L-2? If he's fakeclaiming he's dead on D3, let me believe he's not that stupid

That's part of why I feel like it could be fake, it was claimed under pressure, in addition to his play not exactly being what I'd expect from a cop.

[pinturicchio]

Are you guys serious? A fakeclaim being on L-2? If he's fakeclaiming he's dead on D3, let me believe he's not that stupid

That's part of why I feel like it could be fake, it was claimed under pressure, in addition to his play not exactly being what I'd expect from a cop.

Dude, he will be conf!scum next day. Better lynching a conf!scum on D3 than gambiting if he's fakeclaiming or not. What are you gonna do if Fredrick comes and ccs? We lynch JJD and Fredrick tomorrow if JJD flips cop? It would be exactly the same.

[Gamma Emerald]

Does a cc even matter if it's not the person guiltied? Can't there be two cops?

[pinturicchio]

Does a cc even matter if it's not the person guiltied? Can't there be two cops?

What I'm saying is that fakeclaiming from JJD is plain stupid, I don't believe he is because he would have at least one partner who would have told him not to do that. Waiting for Fredrick to come here and say "hey, I'm ccing JJD, I'm *random PR* and bla bla bla" is useless, they are both compromised. Even if Fredrick is saying the truth, JJD would be lynched tomorrow no matter what.

[Hoopla]

Are you guys serious? A fakeclaim being on L-2? If he's fakeclaiming he's dead on D3, let me believe he's not that stupid

If I believed I was 95% going to be the lynch today, as scum I would absolutely claim a Cop guilty on someone. Who cares if you get lynched the next day? One more day is better than zero more days, and you squeeze an extra mislynch out of the town when they were almost certainly going to lynch scum. It's a very good scumplay to extract a little bit of value from a bad situation.

[pinturicchio]

Ooooooooh wait I'm fucking dumb UNVOTE: Fredrick[/vote]

[pinturicchio]

Lol can't even unvote UNVOTE: Fredrick

[pinturicchio]

Ok, new strategy: assuming there's no doctors because the IC died, claiming cop is getting nightkilled no matter what. We lynch JJD; if he's telling the truth, we will lose a VT or PR on the nightkill and we lynch Fredrick tomorrow. If he's lying, good for us, right? Or you guys are unvoting JJD because there's a better way to do this?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

@Hoopla: I fully concur with your 461, but I also seem to recall you describing my hammer on Sesq as hot garbage. Care to make up your mind? Am I good scum who would "extract a little bit of value from a bad situation". or am I bad enough to place a "hot garbage" hammer? Or did I just happen to improve in 2 pages??

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Ok, new strategy: assuming there's no doctors because the IC died, claiming cop is getting nightkilled no matter what. We lynch JJD; if he's telling the truth, we will lose a VT or PR on the nightkill and we lynch Fredrick tomorrow. If he's lying, good for us, right? Or you guys are unvoting JJD because there's a better way to do this?

We can do this, but I would bet on Town losing this game because you guys are hilarious at WIFOMing a guilty.

And you know what would be even better? Scum having a RB so they block me, kill someone else and then I get lynched tomorrow and Fred is still alive in LyLo. Well, the good thing is he will be lynched by then and then good luck for Town getting 2 more back-to-back lynches correctly, and that's even assuming there is no SK. Really impressive play.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

You know what would be even more funny? You finally lynch Fred and he flip RB.

[Gamma Emerald]

JJD you haven't responded to my doubts on you

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

See you all tomorrow

P-edit: What doubts?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

OK, I'll respond tomorrow. I really need to go to sleep now. Night

[Hoopla]

Does a cc even matter if it's not the person guiltied? Can't there be two cops?

There

can

be two Cops, but that means we'd have to have rolled 4 C's which is highly unlikely. How unlikely? Well, first lets look at the odds of each setup coming out:

(Here's a link to the setup for those following along)

TTTTTTT

- 0.7%

TTTTTT

- 5.4%

TTTTT

- 16.4%

TTTT

- 27.4%

TTT

- 27.4%

TT

- 16.4%

T

- 5.4%

0T

- 0.7%

Purple means SK setup, and until we see evidence of another NK, we should assume we're in non-SK game. We already have an M rolled, so for 4 C's to exist, we'd probably have to be in the TT or 0T setup. The odds of no T's being rolled is <1% -- basically non-existent. Doing some monte carlo simulations for the TT setup yields the following result:

0 C's - 24%
1 C - 41%
2 C's - 26%
3 C's - 8%
4 C's - 1%

Again, basically non-existent chance that we're playing in a 4 C setup.

So, if someone is a Cop, they can counterclaim knowing that JJD's Cop claim would almost certainly be fake.

[UglyDuck]

Are you guys serious? A fakeclaim being on L-2? If he's fakeclaiming he's dead on D3, let me believe he's not that stupid

That's part of why I feel like it could be fake, it was claimed under pressure, in addition to his play not exactly being what I'd expect from a cop.

Dude, he will be conf!scum next day. Better lynching a conf!scum on D3 than gambiting if he's fakeclaiming or not. What are you gonna do if Fredrick comes and ccs? We lynch JJD and Fredrick tomorrow if JJD flips cop? It would be exactly the same.

So, to Gamma's point:

Player X claims to Cop Player Y as Skum.
No other claims, we lynch either X or Y and have an easy road from there - ending in finding one Skum. Over that time Skum gets 1-2 NKs.

then there is the added potential of something like this happening...

Player A says they are also Cop and Copped Player B.
Now Skum has gotten either the Mislynch and 2 NK or one NK already. But in this scenario they also have gotten another Town PR claim.

Worst Case for Skum: We read BS and lynch the fake cop. Skum gets a NK. (Start D3 9-1 or 7-1-1)
Middle Case for Skum: We mislynch D2, they get a NK, we lynch Skum D3, and they get another NK. (Start D4 6-1 or 5-1-1)
Best Case for Skum: We mislynch D2, other role claims, we lynch Skum D3, and they get another NK with a GTD Town PR (Start D4 6-1 or 5-1-1).

Thing is, even in a realistic world where we mislynch D3 in scenario 1, we still start D4 with 7-1 or 6-1-1.

So if we don't believe the claim (and we lynch the skum) we most likely start D4 either 7-1 or 6-1-1.
If we believe the claim and find skum (either in results or in the fake cop) we start D4 6-1 or 5-1-1.

The question becomes, not does the player think they will stay alive through the day, but if they will stay alive through D3.

[UglyDuck]

Are you guys serious? A fakeclaim being on L-2? If he's fakeclaiming he's dead on D3, let me believe he's not that stupid

That's part of why I feel like it could be fake, it was claimed under pressure, in addition to his play not exactly being what I'd expect from a cop.

Dude, he will be conf!scum next day. Better lynching a conf!scum on D3 than gambiting if he's fakeclaiming or not. What are you gonna do if Fredrick comes and ccs? We lynch JJD and Fredrick tomorrow if JJD flips cop? It would be exactly the same.

So, to Gamma's point:

Player X claims to Cop Player Y as Skum.
No other claims, we lynch either X or Y and have an easy road from there - ending in finding one Skum. Over that time Skum gets 1-2 NKs.

then there is the added potential of something like this happening...

Player A says they are also Cop and Copped Player B.
Now Skum has gotten either the Mislynch and 2 NK or one NK already. But in this scenario they also have gotten another Town PR claim.

Worst Case for Skum: We read BS and lynch the fake cop. Skum gets a NK. (Start D3 9-1 or 7-1-1)
Middle Case for Skum: We mislynch D2, they get a NK, we lynch Skum D3, and they get another NK. (Start D4 6-1 or 5-1-1)
Best Case for Skum: We mislynch D2, other role claims, we lynch Skum D3, and they get another NK with a GTD Town PR (Start D4 6-1 or 5-1-1).

Thing is, even in a realistic world where we mislynch D3 in scenario 1, we still start D4 with 7-1 or 6-1-1.

So if we don't believe the claim (and we lynch the skum) we most likely start D4 either 7-1 or 6-1-1.
If we believe the claim and find skum (either in results or in the fake cop) we start D4 6-1 or 5-1-1.

The question becomes, not does the player think they will stay alive through the day, but if they will stay alive through D3.

PPE all the set up posts.

[Ok Nyeo]

@JJD

If you were a cop with a guilty result, then why you didn't claim immediately? It was obvious that we were going to vote you for that hammer.

Real cop please don't out


And also, we can do hypoclaims