Open 717: C9++ [GAME OVER:TOWN WINS]

[UnaBombaH]

JJD saying Fred is red could be a distancing/saving themselves with red fred flip attempt. Laser might be the more likely scum than Una in my opinion.

......? What?

[pinturicchio]

Stop making a case on Ok Nyeo, she's obviously the Serial Killer. Let's talk about Fred's partner(s)

[UnaBombaH]

Why would you consider lynching a claimed cop over his guilty?

My question exactly.
These are the kind of posts/thoughts/slips we need to analyze once we get a flip.

[UnaBombaH]

Town reads on you, Pin, Gamma.

Null on Neyo, laser, ugly.

Suspicious of JJD, Mylo, Una, Fred.

Agree on town- and scumreads - has me on the wrong section though.
Feeling even better about Kop today, so gonna check his D1 wagon properly later.

[UnaBombaH]

First thing when he gets back, JJD needs to specify if he's 1-shot or full Cop.

I'm not specifying shit! We need only give the info the own needs to win. Any additional info only benefits Scum.

So, I could be a 1-shot Cop with one C (and thus I'm baiting the NK because they don't know that). I could be full Cop and we are in CC. I could be either 1-shot of full Cop and we are in CCC, or I could be full Cop with another full Cop in existence and we are in CCCC. Hell theoretically we could be in CCCCC and there are 2 full Cops and a 1-shot Cop and I could be either.

However, realistically we are in either C, CC or CCC. Now why give them the info when we don't need to?

Solid.

[Gamma Emerald]

Stop making a case on Ok Nyeo, she's obviously the Serial Killer. Let's talk about Fred's partner(s)

How is she obv SK? Look at the way she tries to tie people to Fred's flip, that means she's likely alignment informed and trying to avoid future scum lynches by making terrible associative statements.

[pinturicchio]

Ok Nyeo's content is so weird I don't know what to do with a lot of it. A lot of it feels so unself-conscious that I have a hard time believing it could come from scum, e.g. 26, 69, 95, 166. Some definitely scummy stuff... Voting patterns are all over the place. String of naked votes, including a self-vote. Is deliberately being evasive. Yeah, I don't even know what to do with this slot. If this setup allowed for a jester, I'd say jester.

No jester, but I believe she could be our beloved Serial Killer. Not looking town enough to get nkilled by scum, "trolling" to make us believe she's just "too scummy to be scum". I don't think we should lynch her today by this possibility, and let the scumteam to decide if they want to kill her as a Serial Killer is more of a threat for them than for town.

Of course, this is a long shot, and Ok Nyeo not dying on N1 doesn't mean he is not the SK or she is scum, as there is a lot of WIFOM in there. But for now, we should lynch someone else instead of Nyeo just for this possibility.

We first catch Fred's partner, then we lynch Ok Nyeo.

[Ok Nyeo]

@JJD

If you were a cop with a guilty result, then why you didn't claim immediately? It was obvious that we were going to vote you for that hammer.

Real cop please don't out


And also, we can do hypoclaims

This is bad.
Cop with a guilty doesn't need to claim immediately, in fact, a good cop leaves crumbs and finds other avenues to use instead of openly guiltying.

Secondly, I'd argue that while JJD was always gonna get suspected/wagoned for that hammer, he wasn't under immediate threat, and therefore his claim doesn't not make sense.

Thirdly, making hypoclaims is SCUMMY AS HELL HERE.
Hypoclaims with Cops (not same with flavor-cops or trackers etc) don't work with one potential PR already outed.
That is partly because scum KNOW which hypoclaims are definitely false (if someone hypoclaims an inno on one of their teammates for example), and it also muddies the whole situation up in case we later get to situation with ACTUAL cop claims/flips..

One of the scummiest hidden agendas in this post IMO.

I was hoping to snap the trap d3 but yeah I agree Nyeo's posting wrt JJD's claim is some of the scummiest shit in the game if JJD is town

I don't think gamma would post that he trapped me if he was scum. If he was scum he would give all suspicion to Una when I was lynched.

Gamma is town.

[Ok Nyeo]

Stop making a case on Ok Nyeo, she's obviously the Serial Killer. Let's talk about Fred's partner(s)

How would you know we have a serial killer yet only 1 person died at night?

[UnaBombaH]

What happened to your analyze?

More or less this:

I have a feeling that there's something weird going on between the "votecircle" of Judge J.D. - UglyDuck - OK Nyeo - Myloninja13.
Ok Nyeo has been acting strangely, and seems to avoid direct confrontation. Hiding behind a "funny answer" such as "spy-stuff" or whatnot can't be neglected for long. Very non-committal and evasive posting. Their vote is on UglyDuck.

UglyDuck voted Judge Dredd very early, based on Dredd suggesting that masons should claim. Duck ASKS A LOT OF QUESTIONS, BUT OFFERS VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF OPEN READS/ANALYSIS. Feels like a scum posing activity in scumhunting.. Their vote is still on Judge Dredd.

Judge Dredd opened with the idea for a Masonry-claim. Got an immediate town-feel from it, but obviously the action in itself should be considered NAI (easy for scum to take the initiative and hide behind it) Posting hasn't been very informative after that, but not straight-up scummy either. Their vote is on Myloninja13, and not with much of a reason yet, I think.

Myloninja13...hasn't been able to say much ANYTHING yet. Their vote is currently still on Judge Dredd, apparently based on his suggestion for the Mason-claim.

Short version: you have 4 suspects grouped into 2 opposite sides. I'm voting one and Neyo's voting the other (me/Meyo are one side) while the other side (Ugly/Mylo) are both on me.

I hence suggest we lynching in these 4 should be more informative.

Something like this must've crossed my mind too, yes.
I'm just not sure if it's this simple, but I also think lynching in these four might yield the most information for us - in terms of associations at least.

For now I'd like to first hear from all of these slots though, because I'd like to see whether people are all forming a consensus on lynching Kop (I still feel like that lynch is a "lazy" solution) or if these four slots are willing to stick to their earlier votes.
If that is the case, I'd love to see a lynch among those slots.

(read through all the quotes)
What followed this was a rather hasty turn into a lynch on sesQ, and I haven't been able to do a catch up since.
Even now it seems like there's already a "storyline" forming somewhere else.

What I don't understand, is why are you so hung up on it?

I fully intend to use the potential power behind that bit of theorizing I did, it doesn't disappear anywhere.
My problem with YOU this whole game has been mostly just this - you ask a bunch of questions from people and write empty, short lines.

Why don't you try and formulate your own original interpretation from my theory, and see where it lands you? Afraid to try it? I assume it could be hard if you're trying to hide any insider-knowledge you already have..

[Ok Nyeo]

@JJD

If you were a cop with a guilty result, then why you didn't claim immediately? It was obvious that we were going to vote you for that hammer.

Real cop please don't out


And also, we can do hypoclaims

This is bad.
Cop with a guilty doesn't need to claim immediately, in fact, a good cop leaves crumbs and finds other avenues to use instead of openly guiltying.

Secondly, I'd argue that while JJD was always gonna get suspected/wagoned for that hammer, he wasn't under immediate threat, and therefore his claim doesn't not make sense.

Thirdly, making hypoclaims is SCUMMY AS HELL HERE.
Hypoclaims with Cops (not same with flavor-cops or trackers etc) don't work with one potential PR already outed.
That is partly because scum KNOW which hypoclaims are definitely false (if someone hypoclaims an inno on one of their teammates for example), and it also muddies the whole situation up in case we later get to situation with ACTUAL cop claims/flips..

One of the scummiest hidden agendas in this post IMO.

I did not know the optimal play for a cop. Lynching fred then lynching JJD if fred flips town made more sense after that. But after JJD explained his reasons, I thought about it and came as very townie motivated reasons.

Una, what do you think about mylo? And are you good at scum?

[pinturicchio]

Stop making a case on Ok Nyeo, she's obviously the Serial Killer. Let's talk about Fred's partner(s)

How would you know we have a serial killer yet only 1 person died at night?

You decided not to kill to not reveal your existence/you were roleblocked by town/you were roleblocked by scum.

[UnaBombaH]

Hi I'm here and I completely forgot about this on the weekend

I believe JJD, literally the only reason I voted for him was his mason claim idea, and I don't see where a scum would find this a good fake claim in anyway.

Not sure why Kop is suspicious of both JJD and Fred, did he think he was lying but still killing a scum member?

Not a towny pop-in - this stance could go either way depending on the flip we get today..

[UnaBombaH]

Having slept on it, and seeing his new posts today, I'm probably more inclined to believe JJD as Cop now and am OK testing his guilty, but I still can't shake the feeling of paranoia he's scum getting one last mislynch for the road.

I used to play very paranoid before myself, and therefore I can fully symphatize with this.
But the fact remains - we lynch the claimed guilty 1st, and then react accordingly based on the flip.
No room for WIFOM or paranoia in situations like this.

[Ok Nyeo]

Una, if Fred flips scum would you be OK with lynching Mylo tomorrow?

[UnaBombaH]

So, upon further thought, this is a pretty easy choice...

Oh no, not again...!
Gonna skip all the pointless speculation that almost gave me a seizure (for example, one scenario had us lynching JJD, and then lynch him again D3..? )

All of this put together leaves us at the "same point" going into Night 3 - Both of them are dead, either by NK or lynch, and we have eliminated 1 Skum.
However, there is only one scenario in which we force Skum to kill a potential Town Cop - and that is by lynching Fred first.

This, however, is as close to truth as it needs to be.
We lynch the claimed guilty today 9/10 times. The only scenario where we won't do it, is if we get TWO contradicting claims - then we lynch JJD today and in the event he flips town, scum have given us two freebies. (both fakeclaimers must be scum)

[UnaBombaH]

Can we talk about the N1 kill? Is it optimal to kill the IC instead of trying to kill a PR? Maybe Generic Hydra was having good reads...? The game is stagnating on this Fred vs JJD because it's absolutely clear there's a scum in there and scum doesn't want to participate on this now that a teammate is involved. Let's create more content with more people, speculations of who could be Fred's (or JJD's) partners, possibility of a SK being in this game and being blocked, etc etc

Good idea.
The problem with posts like these, is that asking honest and transparent content for the sake of content when there is a certain lynch coming, never seems to work..

[UnaBombaH]

Judge Jospeh Dredd is lying. I'm a vanilla townie.

This seals the lynch on Fredrick today.

ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE WE DON'T LYNCH FREDRICK TODAY, IS IF WE GET A COP-CLAIM WITH AN INNO ON FREDRICK.

(this would give us that 2v1-situation I mentioned above)

[UnaBombaH]

Who is scum if it's not Fred?

It seems I have caught up to my catch-up..or something.

If Fred flips town, JJD is scum.
No if's or but's.

[UnaBombaH]

I was hoping to snap the trap d3 but yeah I agree Nyeo's posting wrt JJD's claim is some of the scummiest shit in the game if JJD is town

+

How is she obv SK? Look at the way she tries to tie people to Fred's flip, that means she's likely alignment informed and trying to avoid future scum lynches by making terrible associative statements.

Yes, no and YES.
I'm 100% on the same line with you on OK Neyo being scummy, but I don't even think JJD's flip has much relevance to it.
Everything about the way they post and question things, right up to how I really feel like they had a hidden agenda with their "hypoclaim"-idea.

(I'd also like to point out that this feels like the "sharpest" in any game I've seen you so far Gamma - and you feel obv.town as hell. )

[Ok Nyeo]

Who is scum if it's not Fred?

It seems I have caught up to my catch-up..or something.

If Fred flips town, JJD is scum.
No if's or but's.

*Who is fred's scumfriend if fred flips scum?

[Ok Nyeo]

And the most important thing is:

Una, are you OK with lynching Mylo if fred flips as scum?

[TheGoldenParadox]

Biding my time, waiting for a pagetop. If anyone else secures this pagetop, I ask that they only post "pagetop" so that I can post a votecount.

[UnaBombaH]

Una, what do you think about mylo? And are you good at scum?

I have a null-scum read on Mylo.
Their posting isn't committing much to anything, and their activity hasn't been very high. (then again, I've been having my own rough times just now, so maybe I shouldn't harp on that..)

I'd consider myself a decently good scumplayer, but I think I might be even better as town..
I mainly pride myself with being able to detect blatant bullshit that most people miss.
I could link you to a couple of my "highlight-level bullshit-detections", but I don't want to brag..

I'll try to cut off my spamming, so I'll incorporate my reads here too:
(Leaving out Fredrick and JJD until we see some flips, but for now it's easy for me to believe JJD. That doesn't mean that it wouldn't be just as easy to believe he is scum if Fredrick flips town.. )

Solid-ish townreads: Cake-dude, Gamma, Pint-whatever (=Heisenberg).
Townleans: Kop
Null to scum: LaserGuy, UglyDuck (might be just misguided)
Scum: Myloninja13, Ok Nyeo

I can give context to these if anyone else than Ok Nyeo asks ( ), but I don't think it should be needed.
I have been as straightforward and open with my reads as I possibly can, and the ones around null to scum are the hardest to sort anyway..
In short: After we have seen where JJD vs Fredrick leads us, I'm willing to continue lynching from Myloninja/Ok Nyeo, with the caveat that I'll be obviously checking previous wagons etc after the flip today.

[UnaBombaH]

Una, are you OK with lynching Mylo if fred flips as scum?

Oh, one more it seems.

I'd want you lynched over Myloninja as of now, just because of that one post I pointed out. I got a very sinister vibe out of it.