Mini Normal 1996: Floral Mafia [Endgame!]

[Gamma Emerald]

Cedrick got crazily defensive when I suggested Luca/him. Luca didn't comment.

Don't care about that, what makes you think scum bussed their strongman over Luca?

[Tchill13]

Creature needs to do more if he wants to be town. A simple meta dive shows he's a rare player that can literally be sorted by the activity overview page.

all i wanted to see is someone else say it.

Gamma, creature can fight his own battles hes a big boy. What would you say to someone LOCK towning me at this point because they "know me". It'd be pretty stupid wouldn't it?

[Tchill13]

Cedrick got crazily defensive when I suggested Luca/him. Luca didn't comment.

Don't care about that, what makes you think scum bussed their strongman over Luca?

implosion would have been lynched eventually. Had way too much heat on him.

[Tchill13]

half the player base honed in on implosion EARLY. That's why you bus him over luca. Luca gets major town cred. Days 2 and 3 should be easy for scum at that point.

Implosion busses luca then half the player base still scum reads implosion due to day 1 play.

[Gamma Emerald]

Creature needs to do more if he wants to be town. A simple meta dive shows he's a rare player that can literally be sorted by the activity overview page.

all i wanted to see is someone else say it.

Gamma, creature can fight his own battles hes a big boy. What would you say to someone LOCK towning me at this point because they "know me". It'd be pretty stupid wouldn't it?

I mean let me pull something up real quick, I'll tell you my logic here

[Tchill13]

you can argue the suspicion still staying on implosion but nobody wanted to lynch luca today. Nobody.

[Hopkirk]

I've thrown out about... 4 or 5 different outcomes because I simply don't know what's going on. My day 1 play is geared towards a mislynch day 1. So of course when we actually lynch then I'm in uncommon territory.

If scum didn't bus. Maria/katherine (maybe ausuka but I doubt it.)

If scum did bus then it's Luca/???

Only issue I have is lynching me doesn't lead to anything. If I flip town then what? Because I can assure you I won't flip scum which means that town flip needs to lead to something decent.

Your bussing team is stupid. Why would they flip to their strongman over whatever Luca is?

Luca switched to voting Implosion on L1. If it's bussing, it's last second bussing to avoid autolosing on the lynch on Implosion.

If anyone else switched (lets say Tchill which is plausible for scum there), then this votecount really doesn't make them look good.

implosion (7): Hopkirk, Creature, Gamma Emerald, Havo, Mumble, Killthestory, Tchill
Mumble (2): Cedrick, Luca Blight
Luca Blight (5): Ausuka, MariaR, katherine, Tchill13, implosion
(Implosion switched to Luca 10 minutes before Luca hammered (signal/consent to bus?) as well. If Tchill hammered before that then it'd be Cedrick/Luca/Implosion on Mumble.)

You'd also bus Implosion over Luca because Luca's claimed commuter which has implications for how valuable he is to the scumteam there, and because Implosion didn't have the opportunity to hammer Luca, but Luca had the opportunity to hammer Implosion.

[Tchill13]

Either Luca is town or he isn't.

and we won't know that anytime soon, and we aren't lynching him day 2 as he was the counter the a POWERFUL mafia role. move on

this is what made me have the cedrick/luca associative.

[Ausuka]

No. I scum read them because it's stupid to TR me at this point. It's that simple.

So hopkirk doesn't realize that I'm not playing with longevity in mind at all.

So you're calling people stupid because they defended you but you still think defending you is the smart move?

[Hopkirk]

If people buy Luca's claim/bus, he makes it to lylo/endgame without having to explain why he hasn't been killed. There's no threat to him. If people completely buy his claim then scum autowin.
Luca's play today is a lot lazier/conservative than his role should suggest.

[Hopkirk]

Implosion's vote on Luca wouldn't fit his read progression too well either.

[Gamma Emerald]

Copied from Mathdino's Self-Appraisal topic
Consider this scenario:
You're in a game, and Almost50 claims "northsidegal is definitely town this game". He has good reasons. You can't read Almost50 or northsidegal. But you notice that Almost50 has 90% accuracy at reading NSG when he's town.
This is a team game. Trust your fellow players' strengths. The most probable scenario is that Almost50, if he's town, is correct. This means either:
A. They are scum together.
B. Almost50 is scum who knows NSG is town.
C. Almost50 is town who is 95% likely to be right on NSG.

Let's talk about this wrt myself. With knowing Creature's meta I can probably say I'm 80% confident he's town in this scenario. If he'd been more active that would be higher, less or making less content it would be lower. Now let's cover each of the scenarios.
A: Could be possible, if this is the case I'd be forcing Creature to post probably.
B: Something I have done in the past, but there's also the room for debate with you rn so arguing he's town could be -EV if enough people think otherwise.
C: I'm actually town and have faith in my read.

Which do you think is the case?

[Tchill13]

I'm not sure if he's town or not. That's the point.

So you think implosion/Luca were a team? That’s literally the only way you can be suspicious of Luca.

this one kinda sticks out to. He's saying "do you know how stupid that sounds"

[Gamma Emerald]

I'd probably vote Luca a day before lylo if it got to that point as a safety measure, will also peruse the logic presented here

[Tchill13]

No. I scum read them because it's stupid to TR me at this point. It's that simple.

So hopkirk doesn't realize that I'm not playing with longevity in mind at all.

So you're calling people stupid because they defended you but you still think defending you is the smart move?

No. I was mad i was about to get lynched an pitched a fit

in all seriousness i still have hopkirk as lock town.

Hopkirks doing pretty damn good imo and if town win it'll be in large part due to him. I was just irritated ausuka can see me as town but hopkirk can't. It's fine though i can't really blame him.

[Tchill13]

I'd probably vote Luca a day before lylo if it got to that point as a safety measure, will also peruse the logic presented here

You CANT do this. the game changes. Things pop up. Then all of a sudden you have to make a difficult choice. If you know, like REALLY KNOW they can't make it to lylo you lynch them ASAP.

[Ausuka]

No. I scum read them because it's stupid to TR me at this point. It's that simple.

So hopkirk doesn't realize that I'm not playing with longevity in mind at all.

So you're calling people stupid because they defended you but you still think defending you is the smart move?

No. I was mad i was about to get lynched an pitched a fit

in all seriousness i still have hopkirk as lock town.

Hopkirks doing pretty damn good imo and if town win it'll be in large part due to him. I was just irritated ausuka can see me as town but hopkirk can't. It's fine though i can't really blame him.

Wait I thought I was scum buddying you

[Tchill13]

Gamma you're a strong TR as well. My issue with defending creature for activity readable play is he'll never change because of that. He'll never progress as a player. I guess that's ok with him though so im not sure why im worried about it.

I just don't like lazy/ bad play being hard defended.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma you're a strong TR as well. My issue with defending creature for activity readable play is he'll never change because of that. He'll never progress as a player. I guess that's ok with him though so im not sure why im worried about it.

I just don't like lazy/ bad play being hard defended.

If he cares about winning as scum he'll work on it, because that kills his survivability.

[Tchill13]

No ausuka there's a legit possibility you're still scum.

There's a very minute possibility hopkirk is.

that's the difference.

[Ausuka]

there's a legit possibility you're still scum.

I thought it was a probability. You were voting me a few pages ago?

[Hopkirk]

@Tchill: I can see you as town. Luca/Cedrick is a serious concern for me.

Despite so many posts saying Luca is town, Cedrick never actually says why. Examples:
1141- Puts Luca as town (based on the vote?) without reason. Says he doesn't think my vote makes me look town. Should explain why Luca's was better when it was a hammer when Luca was the opposing wagon. Never considers scum-Luca in thread.
1158/1248- Gets ridiculously aggressive when I suggest Luca/Cedrick.
1348- 'Most people will think Luca is town' - why?

KTS kill makes sense with Luca scum if I remember right.

Come to think of it, after claiming, Luca's role isn't any more useful than a VT if there's not solid reason to hard townread him.

[Tchill13]

you realize it's as much of my job not to be lynched as a VT as it is to figure out what's going on right ausuka? So of course i have to dance a thin line in surviving and solving. If it seems like i can survuve i play with that in mind. I did have a glimpse of hope for a little bit. So during that time im willing to look the other way on the LEAST likely scum in my scum pool. Now im back to where i should be.

Death is certain.

So honestly In order id guess: Luca, cedrick, Katherine, Maria, ausuka.

I believe the luca bus situation is the one thats playing out. Luca was genuinely upset mumble and katherine were TR'd at the end of day 1 because Luca was scum.

If its not luca and cedrick i'd lynch katherine first because she could be scum with either ausuka or maria but i don't see ausuka and maria being the team.

[Tchill13]

@Tchill: I can see you as town. Luca/Cedrick is a serious concern for me.

Despite so many posts saying Luca is town, Cedrick never actually says why. Examples:
1141- Puts Luca as town (based on the vote?) without reason. Says he doesn't think my vote makes me look town. Should explain why Luca's was better when it was a hammer when Luca was the opposing wagon. Never considers scum-Luca in thread.
1158/1248- Gets ridiculously aggressive when I suggest Luca/Cedrick.
1348- 'Most people will think Luca is town' - why?

KTS kill makes sense with Luca scum if I remember right.

Come to think of it, after claiming, Luca's role isn't any more useful than a VT if there's not solid reason to hard townread him.

i'd throw roses at your feet if i had any. I tried to say this earlier i just didn't lay it out in this manner.

[Hopkirk]

Given I have 4 locktown, I can't see any actual benefit to keeping Luca alive due to the claim.