Open 717: C9++ [GAME OVER:TOWN WINS]

[UnaBombaH]

Votecount 2.2

Fredrick A Campbell(5)

~ Judge Joseph Dredd(28), LaserGuy(1), Kop(8), UglyDuck(7), Gamma Emerald(23)

Judge Joseph Dredd(1)

~ Fredrick A Campbell(12)


Not Voting (5): Hoopla(11), Myloninja13(1), Ok Nyeo(22), Pinturicchio(22), UnaBombaH(29)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-07 17:23:00)
Next mod deadline review is in (expired on 2018-04-01 00:23:00)

MOD notes

I will be V/LA from March 31st until April 14th. I will be able to post votecounts but less frequently. If you need a votecount you can use MathBlade's Vote Scrubber and put the following information:

Spoiler: Information

Thread Shortened: f=51&t=75428
postNumber = 0

to get a votecount.

[UnaBombaH]

^^you're welcome mod!

[TheGoldenParadox]

Thanks Una

[UglyDuck]

So, upon further thought, this is a pretty easy choice...

JDD claims to cop Fred and get a Skum result.

In world where we lynch JDD - either we get:
1) Skum!JDD - OK cool we get skum. Skum probably kills the newly made IC (Fred)
2) Town!JDD - We lynch a Town cop and then lynch JDD on D3.

In a world where we lynch Fred - either we get:
1) Skum!Fred - Ok cool we get Skum probably kills claimed Town Cop at night (JDD)
2) Town!Fred - We lynch a Townie and then lynch JDD on D3.

So we are left with the pros vs cons of the order of events.


We lynch JDD first:
Skum!JDD - Yay good job us. Skum kills Fred most likely.
Town!JDD - We go to night, Skum gets a NK, we lynch Fred the next day.

Skum!Fred - Yay, good job us. Skum kills JDD most likely.
Town!Fred - We go to night, Skum kills JDD.


All of this put together leaves us at the "same point" going into Night 3 - Both of them are dead, either by NK or lynch, and we have eliminated 1 Skum.
However, there is only one scenario in which we force Skum to kill a potential Town Cop - and that is by lynching Fred first.

1- If we lynch JDD today and he is Skum, then we wake up tomorrow without JDD and Fred. We then go on to Day 3 and play it out with one Skum gone.
2- If we lynch JDD today and he is Town, then we wake up tomorrow without JDD and a random dead Town. We then do Day 3 quickly, and must lynch Fred to get rid of the Skum.
3- If we lynch Fred today and he is Skum, then we wake up tomorrow without JDD and Fred. We then go on to Day 3 and play it out with one Skum gone...but we force Skum to NK JDD.
4- If we lynch Fred today, and he is Town, then we wake up tomorrow without Fred and a random dead Town. We then do Day 3 quickly, and must lynch JDD to get rid of the Skum.

As town, our job is essentially to outlive Skum. Options 1,3, and 4 are clearly the most beneficial for us. However, if we follow Option 1 (lynching JDD) we take care of killing the claimed Town PR for Skum, leaving them to target whomever they please for the NK. If we follow Option 3 (lynching Skum!Fred) then Skum still gets to kill as they please, but they will kill JDD - note that all scenarios end in us lynching JDD or Skum killing JDD, so it doen't matter to us... it just forces Skum to kill a specific player. If we follow Option 4 (lynching Town!Fred) then Skum gets to kill as they please and then we lynch JDD on Day 3.


Following this logic it is a clear choice. We need to lynch Fred today.
If JDD is lying and Skum - then yeah he gets us and Skum gets to pick a freebie target tonight.
But... if JDD is telling the truth and is Town - then we get the same results as we would have at the end of D3 except we force Skum to use a kill on JDD instead of doing it for them by lynching him.

VOTE: Fredrick - Pretty sure that is L-1.

This logic is pretty shoddy but it seems more due to thought not being in order

Sorry I typed it up on a plane on like very little sleep lol the order does make it very confusing.

Logic is solid though. As there is no world where we don't lynch one, combined with the Cop already being claimed, we should lynch Fred and force Skum's NK to the alleged Cop. If he is not a Cop then he is Skum and they are shooting at night at random chance PRs anyways because Skum knows already. If he is Cop and we lynch him, Skum gets to continue looking for more PRs, but if he is a Cop and we lynch Fred instead - it forces them to use NK2 on the claimed Cop.

I suppose the entire bit is predicated on the logic that we are 100% lynching one of the two of them - which I agree with and believe to be the correct play at this point.

[UglyDuck]

Town!Fred - We go to night, Skum kills JDD

Why would scum kill JDD when he was wrong? Would not fred being town make JDD a scum?



Fred is probably trying not to give information. L-2 would be always safer just in case.

Sorry, good catch. it should read that if JDD is wrong we lynch him the next day. Again - late on a plane write up

[UglyDuck]

Vig and SK shots could have been blocked, you know...

Good point. So we still don't know they do not exist for sure, and much less so yesterday. Thank you.

This feels fake.. SK-!JJD might be reasonable speculation too?

SK JDD doesn't really make sense?
He claims random results just like what.... super duper hoping he right and Fred is Skum?

[LaserGuy]

LaserGuy

- I've got a town vibe from some of his posts like 320 -- covers a lot of topics and reads in a pretty lucid manner and is clearly thinking about the game. But I'm also suspicious that he talks about Sesq earlier on D1 like this and then later in the day claims intent to hammer without reason:

Sesq's posting style is consistent with the last game I played with her where she was Town. IIRC she's pretty abraisive as either alignment, so I don't think that I can read much into her tone at the moment.

Intent to hammer

Claim please.

If you believe her play was consistent with her town game (or at best neutral), what was your reasoning to intend to hammer?

I had her as null up till 341, which I didn't care for. I liked most of the people on the wagon (I don't care for Ok Nyeo, but wasn't scumreading anyone else on there) so I was mostly trusting my townreads.

[LaserGuy]

I did not know the optimal play for a cop. Lynching fred then lynching JJD if fred flips town made more sense after that. But after JJD explained his reasons, I thought about it and came as very townie motivated reasons.

Una, what do you think about mylo? And are you good at scum?

You've never seen a cop get a guilty result or had to evaluate a claim before? You said you had played 10+ games on another site. How has this never come up for you?

[LaserGuy]

Una, if Fred flips scum would you be OK with lynching Mylo tomorrow?

What's your read on Mylo? Why do you think he's scum?

[Ok Nyeo]

Una, if Fred flips scum would you be OK with lynching Mylo tomorrow?

What's your read on Mylo? Why do you think he's scum?

His only vote seems opportunistic, he has been lurking and PoE.

@Fred

if JJD is lying and is scum, then who is their partner?

[LaserGuy]

You've never seen a cop get a guilty result or had to evaluate a claim before? You said you had played 10+ games on another site. How has this never come up for you?

Una, if Fred flips scum would you be OK with lynching Mylo tomorrow?

What's your read on Mylo? Why do you think he's scum?

His only vote seems opportunistic, he has been lurking and PoE.

@Fred

if JJD is lying and is scum, then who is their partner?

Why did you answer the second question and not the first? I have to assume you are deliberately refusing to acknowledge questions about your previous experience at this point.

[UnaBombaH]

Is there still something someone wants to say?
I think a hammer is OK at this point, but we aren't actually in a rush..so maybe I'll check this tonight, and hammer away if nothing is being asked/said?

[Kop]

Una, if Fred flips scum would you be OK with lynching Mylo tomorrow?

What's your read on Mylo? Why do you think he's scum?

His only vote seems opportunistic, he has been lurking and PoE.

@Fred

if JJD is lying and is scum, then who is their partner?

I don't know if it's my brain not functioning as well as it should be, but that is a bit of a odd question to ask, I don't know whether it's down to how it's worded, or just in general, odd.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Una, if Fred flips scum would you be OK with lynching Mylo tomorrow?

What's your read on Mylo? Why do you think he's scum?

His only vote seems opportunistic, he has been lurking and PoE.

@Fred

if JJD is lying and is scum, then who is their partner?

Judge Joseph Dredd is lying, though only my lynch will prove that. However, I haven't spotted anyone that could potentially be his partner.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

No one has questions for me?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Interesting. Everybody left pin to chat with himself. At least that makes him very likely town to me.

This means the wagon was started by town and is put to L-1 by town, so I'm going to save you all the trouble and take the blame for this mislynch (IF it's a mislynch).

VOTE: Sesq

I believe this should end the day.

How did you reach the conclusion that the wagon was started by town?

Who is "you all"?

VOTE: Judge Joseph Dredd

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Judge Joseph Dredd, you haven't answered the question in the quoted post above.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

My spidey sense tells me Kop and JJD have a decent chance of being scum together
VOTE: Judge Joseph Dredd
I'm willing to sheep this

What do you think about Kop now?

[Gamma Emerald]

My spidey sense tells me Kop and JJD have a decent chance of being scum together
VOTE: Judge Joseph Dredd
I'm willing to sheep this

What do you think about Kop now?

He could be scum but he's not suspect number one if you flip scum

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm of 2 minds
I think lynching the VT claim is the safe choice as we don't want to out the PRs
But since my call for the Masons to claim was met by general objection I can see this one too to be viewed as advocating a mislynch on purpose

fwiw I buy the claim from Kop and I think if lynched he will flip a villager just like he said, but I don't know if lynching him is good or bad so I'm staying put

And then later on...

Interesting. Everybody left pin to chat with himself. At least that makes him very likely town to me.

This means the wagon was started by town and is put to L-1 by town, so I'm going to save you all the trouble and take the blame for this mislynch (IF it's a mislynch).

VOTE: Sesq

I believe this should end the day.

What changed, Judge Joseph Dredd?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Gamma Emerald, will you please unvote me temporarily, I don't think we want anyone to hammer me and end the day.

[Gamma Emerald]

Why not, game is dead anyways

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Una, if Fred flips scum would you be OK with lynching Mylo tomorrow?

What's your read on Mylo? Why do you think he's scum?

His only vote seems opportunistic, he has been lurking and PoE.

@Fred

if JJD is lying and is scum, then who is their partner?

Come to think of it, anyone who hammers me should be looked into.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why not, game is dead anyways

Was thinking we might be able to squeeze more content out of other players. I still think it could be done. Also, I could be lynched later. Not sure if it will be more beneficial to do so, though.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Good night. Judge Claude Frollo, I await your answer.