Micro 789 - Alternating 9p - Mafia wins

[CheekyTeeky]

I saw his comments that my posts are NAI but did not see that he also claimed I was a townlean. The townlean isn't the problem alone but he hasn't given any reason for me to move from null to townlean as you pointed out.

But my list is very good for associations. Say rask flips scum for example. It clears Love and GL for me (until lylo at least).
Say NM flips scum. I'd focus less on you and more at the GL/Love/Rask trio.

TBF, how successful has your early pool strategy been? I mean no disrespect, but its validity is built on a house of sand.

You're developing scum pools based on very early/RVS reads which kind of lock you in. You then use those reads to confidently narrow-down your scumpool.

On one hand, it's as valid as any other early-game strategy to identify scum. On the other hand, you're kind of locked-in to your reads lest you get accused of waffling (SCUM BEHAVIOR!!! ) or being wrong and you're letting a scum slip by.

Posts like this read scum!Christopher to me. Bujaber is making a point about Chris' inconsistent read progression on him.

Chris says many things Bu has done is NAI but in a lot of waffling words a few posts later says he's town. Rather than address how his read changed, he attacks BuJaber's sorting method.

Honestly both Rask and Chris ping me for starting the NM wagon. I find both their entrances are awful and posturing town.

Setting aside the above meta, I read BuJaber as slight town. From my POV in this game, his content has been generally pro-town.

I acknowledge that I need to be careful of being pocketed by Bu if he's scum, but that's more of a day 2 analysis (imo).

This is disgusting, he hasn't explained anything about his TR at all while trying to look like he has. Next he talks about Bu pocketing him after accusing Bu earlier of being scummy for rejecting his townread. In a way this spews Bu town for me.

In post 100 we see Chris' readlist where he puts Rask at null...on the same tier as NM. All of his content to this point avoids directly analysing rask but kind of talks around Rask. Looking through his ISO he's quoted Rask but prefers to engage BuJaber. So it's not like he hasn't had the opportunity to develop a read on Rask.

Rasks unvote/revote on NM and his LAMIST ways are pinging me harder than my points on Chris currently. I'm open to discussion on either of my reads but pretty happy with where my vote is currently.

[BuJaber]

You might be on to something here

And frankly I don't see much scum motivation in bussimg here so if anything this eliminates a cheeky/chris team.

[BuJaber]

Like yeah there's 'towncred' motivation but killing a partner day 1 is a bad idea you don't do it unless it can't be stopped.

[CheekyTeeky]

Like yeah there's 'towncred' motivation but killing a partner day 1 is a bad idea you don't do it unless it can't be stopped.

I have a bad habit of bussing my scum buddies lol. I know it's not optimal play D1 in a micro though, it's like a strong urge I have to fight when playing scum.

I know some people think it is optimal play for whatever reason, but I don't think you should rule out associatives based on optimal bussing strategy.

I'm not telling you to scumread us, I'm trying to tell you you're being naive and i hope you haven't incorporated that logic into your scum pools.

[BuJaber]

No it's more an afterthought I'm entertaining.

There are too many possibilities at the moment for possible scum teams to pinpoint them with significant accuracy. I really want to find the scum in my first pool first.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Raskolnikov - 3 - ZZZX, CheekyTeeky, Not_Mafia
Not_Mafia - 2 - Raskolnikov, christopher
BuJaber - 1 - GreenLiquid
Iconeum - 1 - Lovebird
GuiltyLion - 1- BuJaber
Christopher - 1 - Iconeum

Not Voting - none.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is April 2 at 1pm EST

[Raskolnikov]

Can you prod christopher?

[Raskolnikov]

and not_mafia

Both players posted after this so I'm gonna go ahead and call it all set.

[Raskolnikov]

Anyway To leave you with something here are my reads until page 10:
Strong -> Weak read
Town: BuJaber, GreenLiquid, Cheeky
Null?Neutral: LoveBird
Scum: Raskolnikov(

Am somewhat starting to reconsider this read honestly but need to ISO him and do a PbPA

)/Iconeum
NotMafia: Notmafia

What's your iconeum scumread btw?

zzzx not putting chris is actually a weak neg. assoc imo, scum wouldn't do something as conspicuous as omitting only their mate I think. nm read is kind of a dodge though.

[Raskolnikov]

And I am still so confident in my theory of 1 scum between Rask/GL/love. So I'm flip flopping between you.

I still don't like this particularly btw, if anything if you have a set like that you're better off pushing the people who have open associations, even if you're wrong you narrow things down for teamfinding way better. I think saying there's minimum 2 town in here is a good judgment via interactions, but that assertion that 1 scum has to be in here is still pretty baseless imo and amounts to "these are the people who happened to be online at the time". I would only make that kind of judgment by PoE if I townread other people but I don't see how you could in this game unless going from the opposite direction.

[Raskolnikov]

If I can start decently townreading any of the town that necessarily exists in {Chris, ZZZX, Cheeky, N_M} it'd be a big help.
If like maybe christopher or n_m(although I think he's more likely scum than not, it's still not as good a read as I'd like) replaced here with either newbies or people without spooky scumgame (cough cheeky) it'd kinda go a long way.

[Christopher]

Can you prod christopher?

I'm back. I'll get thoughts up later...interesting to see where day 1 has gone since I last posted.

[BuJaber]

Maybe but considering there are reasons to scumread everyone else unfortunately, so lynching within this pool is at worst a 33% chance instead of 20%.

I was pretty set on lynching NM but cheeky is strongly townreading him and cheeky is currently a townlean all things considered so it gives me pause.

Icon works as a potential lynchee that is not one of you 3 but if icon is town then I lynch what could potentially be a strong townie. (He seems like scum at the moment though so I am inclined to join a wagon there but I might not start one)

If it comes down to either zz or chris I feel it'd be a coin flip honestly. I highly doubt both are scum. So best case scenario it's 50%. That's assuming that not both scum are 'active' players in the game. Also if love does flip scum it also makes it unlikely that either Zz or chris are scum because a lurker scum strategy usuallu requires a partner that is active. Unless they both just give up.

[BuJaber]

The above is a response to 359 but it not only addressed to rask

[Raskolnikov]

Actually, who's your strongest townread atm bujaber?

[BuJaber]

Strongest by post is cheeky.
Strongest by gut / some poe is ZZ.

And then chris was a townlean before cheeky replaced in but that's more ego that I would see right through him if he were scum.

[BuJaber]

You are what would be 'most improved' on my list. You went from someone I was almost sure was scum but I'm close to removing you from the first pool and just lynching one of {GL/love} and then come up with assoc. For whichever flips scum.

[Christopher]

Christopher can I get something more out of you.

Whatever reads are the things you feel most strongly about, even if its townreads I'd be interested in hearing about.

I think your top TR was GL, also interested in what you make of iconeum atm.

I TR GL for #263 and #279. I'm not quoting both here, but #263 is the defense of my NM read which I would have given, and 279 is indicative of his overall pro-town content.

@CheekyTeeky: A couple of problems I have with your catch-up:

215: Iconeum couldn't have been fanning the Not_Mafia wagon here because there wasn't one yet -- the only vote was Raskie's random vote. I see that you read the vote count before you started re-reading, so this is a reasonable mistake.
224: I don't see this at all. Not_Mafia is literally the only person he'd pushed at that point.

I think also there is too much focus on Not_Mafia's supposed unreadability and not enough on what in particular he's been doing this game. I looked at a couple of his completed town games ([1][2]) and there is... quite a difference from his play this game. Even in the one where he was most laconic, Micro 773, he was still pushing players, agreeing with reads, and engaging at least in a minor way. In this game, he's not doing any of that, and in addition cast an unexplained vote in 151 before going on to imply no one was scummy in 175, and has been moving his vote around opportunistically nearly all of today. I'm also a bit annoyed that he's refusing to answer my questions on these points.

On the other hand, my biggest problem with lynching him is that his lack of content means we won't get much associative info from his flip aside from analyzing the wagon. He also gives me vibes that Virtuoso gave me in my newbie game (cast unexplained vote, refused to engage, etc.) who eventually turned out to be town and one of the best solvers in that game.

Saying that Not_Mafia can't be read, like he's some kind of Mafia enigma, seems like nonsense in light of the above. If the games I looked at aren't representative, let me know, but besides that I don't see any reason not to suspect him right now.

@CheekyTeeky: A couple of problems I have with your catch-up:

Thank you for your thoughts I'll relook taking them into consideration.

Cheeky, I'd like to follow-up on this analysis of NM from GL. How does GL's reads of NM's previous games affect or influence your read of NM in this game? You dismiss the idea that NM is/maybe scum because of meta, but what about this game specifically?

[Christopher]

VOTE: not mafia
Fuck it, I want to wagon not mafia now.

N_M's been posting elsewhere onsite the whole time which to some extent just makes me want to say fuck him. Icon's statement there is also consistent with my skims and was mainly why I think icon might be paying attention, though from experience saying meta on people you've played isn't that difficult either when scum so eh.

But I'm also lacking a bit in scumreads atm.

3 people have posted today :hmm:

I don't get why you're acting like the game has to end now? We have more than a week left and Rask is speaking as if the day is about to end and we don't have time to scum hunt. This is even more ridiculous given that people have started moving their votes around a bit.

You're absolutely right, I want to see a flip soon.

Rask looks like eager town to me.

[BuJaber]

Those posts are all it took to convince you?

You chose some of his weaker/easier-to-make-as-scum posts as evidence for your townread. I agree with the conclusion but those posts are bad examples.

[Not_Mafia]

Zzzz this game needs a lynch

[BuJaber]

Zzzz this game needs a lynch

Sheep me if you're town

[BuJaber]

Doesn't matter actually..sheep me if scum too

[CheekyTeeky]

If I can start decently townreading any of the town that necessarily exists in {Chris, ZZZX, Cheeky, N_M} it'd be a big help.

Why are you scum reading me?

[CheekyTeeky]

Cheeky, I'd like to follow-up on this analysis of NM from GL. How does GL's reads of NM's previous games affect or influence your read of NM in this game? You dismiss the idea that NM is/maybe scum because of meta, but what about this game specifically?

It's made me agree to disagree. I've been pretty clear about my read on NM coming from the circumstances I entered the game into. He is a low info push especially in RVS, I suspect that he is town because he was the focus of the game - about to be hammered when I entered and noone is admitting it's a policy lynch at best. Focusing on a low info slot deprives town from looking at other players and in particular gave Rask an excuse not to scum hunt elsewhere and base all his reads on activity. The whole thing is super fishy to me. If NM is scum then Rask deserves a Paragon for calling it in his first post before anyone else had entered. I believe it is optimal for town to PoE NMs alignment instead of lynching him in a low content environment. I'll certainly consider lynching him if I'm town reading most of you by the end of the day but that seems very unlikely right now.

Chris can you give me an updated readslist please?