Team Mafia 2018: Game 3 - Random GIFs Game Over

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 5.03

Archwing (2)

DeasVail, Bulbazak L-1

Bulbazak (1)

Archwing L-2

Not Voting (2)

Dunkerdoodles, Bins

Day five deadline is Monday April 9, 2 PM PST. (expired on 2018-04-09 14:00:00).

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch!

[/size]

[DeasVail]

Yeah, my team and I all think the Bulba rushed vote was sort of odd and I can see it coming from a scum buddy. With you saying you think it's probably Arch, the partner might think he's doomed and then vote in that scenario. The one thing I don't get then is that Bulba has been pretty much bussing for the last two days.

To you, Bulba should be lock scum. And the fact that I'm townreading you makes me also think that Bulba is lock-scum. Though, I'm more compelled to lynch in Arch-DV if possible.

Regarding Bulba/Arch, from memory I think something pretty compelling is Bulba's approach to Arch over the last couple of game days, particularly the day xyzzy was lynched. I thought something was wrong and that xyzzy might be town and that Arch was scum, and I actually tried to push for an Arch lynch over a xyzzy one. Bulba made a big deal about how uncomfortable he was with the xyzzy wagon and his main suspect was Archwing, but didn't do anything to change it, and most importantly didn't do anything to push an Archwing wagon. I also think it was a similar deal with the Radja lynch, and I think it was a pretty intentional way to avoid looking bad on the town wagons while also not actually doing anything to change them. This was my main reason for coming up with the Bulba/Arch theory in the first place and I'm feeling pretty good about it now.

[DeasVail]

I also think this reaction comes across as incredibly measured and forced, but I'm also biased I guess.

Deas we are in lylo please Unvote.

Who did you track

[Archwing]

Archwing's reaction is really two-dimensional

what does this mean?

[Archwing]

k so there seemed to be some interesting "coaching" almost from bulba to Deas at the time of the tracker claim. like the way bulba was asking Deas about the exact name of it seemed kinda weird to me? he was pushing deas about it and sus of it, but never really did much about it?

[DeasVail]

He was throwing shade at my claim and then no one played along, so it would have been pretty stupid if he did continue pushing it.

And with people still believing my claim even after you left me alive, it makes total sense that he’d change tact. Everything that Bulba says in my defence is poisonous to me now that he’s seen as scum by most people. But I’m not fussy about where compliments come from.

But yeah, using the “coaching” buzzword to describe that is quite the stretch.

[Bulbazak]

Only in this game can someone get guiltied and scum claim, yet still not get lynched...

Okay, I should finally have time to go over everything when I wake up. In the meantime, I really recommend checking out Arch's Iso and watching how he positions himself throughout the game. Look at the stances he takes and whether they're his own or not. Then I want you to ask yourself how Archwing benefits from moving the 1v1 away from DV and onto me.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 5.04

Archwing (2)

DeasVail, Bulbazak L-1

Bulbazak (1)

Archwing L-2

Not Voting (2)

Dunkerdoodles, Bins

Day five deadline is Monday April 9, 2 PM PST. (expired on 2018-04-09 14:00:00).

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch!

[/size]

[Bins]

Hey, I’m taking my time here. I’m waiting for the long weekend.

[Archwing]

Fake guilty, bulba.

[Archwing]

Creature wanted to say that mulch couldn't have faked it all for UCV cause hr didn't do shit for sheep (who was actually scum)

[mhsmith0]

Prodding bins, Dunkerdoodles

[Bulbazak]

Look how quickly this LyLo wagon formed on me. This has been planned and set up.

If a fake guilty on you was planned, both scum wouldn't be on the wagon immediately. That's not how it works. If this was a nefarious scum plan, scum would want to take their time and do it right. Oh, but while we're on the subject...

Spoiler: Speaking of planning and setting up lynches..

New lynch/check order if I die (assuming Elena townflip):
Elena > Bins > T-Bone > Titus > Bulbazak > Radja/chesskid

Do not let Bulbazak live to LyLo.

There's a very specific reason for this that I can't talk about. I once again encourage people to think about why I claimed there was an exactly 50% chance Bulb was scum, about a week or so ago. Rethinking, it would've been more accurate to say 33%.

Lynch Keychain in the end if RC hardpushes town repeatedly. Same goes to chesskid. Both of their teams are capable of solving this game by the end.

If Elena scumflip, gut says:
Titus > T-Bone > xyzzy > chesskid > Radja > Bulbazak > Keychain > CDB

Obviously you'll only have 5 lynches, but when the massclaim hits you'll be able to remove names from both lists.

Never lynch under any circumstances: Dunkerdoodles, Archwing.

GL is back, thoughts from him incoming.

Seeing dino flip town fruit vendor gives this post more validity to me.

I'm not interested at all in lynching bulb today, and I do know that Math said he should not live to LyLo for... reasons? I dunno. But i super hard trust math's reads, I know he's a great player.

My team is pretty much all town reading bulb right now, so I guess I'm just not really interested in sorting that slot at this time?

I stand by the team I put in the townblock. but as the game evolves, that changes. Do I want bulba to continue with us tomorrow? yep. Should bulba die before lylo? probably, if we follow what math said.
if you've made a decent-sized townblock, someone in there will surely have to go before lylo, or you've fucked up your townblock hard. like, if all that is remaining in the game is the townblock, you're already at a disadv.

ugh, I was just thinking about bulba's slot and I just remembered how Mathdino said not to carry him to lylo. fuck.

You've essentially assured that I'd make it to a Lylo situation, and given that, I've known for a long time that I was likely being set up as the final mislynch, given that you and Dino wouldn't shut up about it. You might as well have hung a giant neon sign over my head reading "Scum Team: Keep this guy alive!". But if you had really been sincere about making sure I wouldn't make it to endgame, you would have made sure to lynch me long before this point. Instead, you townread me at every opportunity, putting me in your town bloc, and outright saying that you were not interested in sorting me, even though you took an opportunity every day to say how I shouldn't be kept alive. So I find it kinda funny that you are trying to say that you've been set up as a mislynch ahead of time, when that's exactly what you've been doing to me since Math died.

especially how deas came out of the gate at me with a fake guilty

Look, I get that you have to attack the guilty. This is expected from anyone who gets guiltied, and I'm not sure why everyone is acting shocked about it. But I'm not sure why you think a town investigative would slow roll a guilty and not vote their guilty right after a mass claim. There'd be no reason for DV to even think that his result would be questionable.

and bulba has been slow-rolling setting up my mislynch.

I have? I mean, I can say that's what your plan was, but I've been pretty adamant that you're scum for awhile now. In fact, if I was slow rolling you, my vote wouldn't be on you right now. That's not how slow rolling works.

no, i can definitely see you making the kill over bulba
for one you might think deas might track someone more townread like bulba
or you could think he won't track the same person twice.

Why would I expect a townread to be tracked. You don't track people you think are town, especially after that mass claim. I was the next in line, after radja, yesterday. Maybe I would just make a shitty tracker, I dunno... But what deas is claiming jist doesn't make sense.

It really must suck to have been caught.

Bulba and Arch suddenly being at each other's throats makes me think that with me tracking Arch, Bins claiming Doc, and people not being that suspicious of me, they've sort of freaked out and decided to hard bus each other as a hail mary.

I'm not sure if you've ever played with scum me, but that's not how I'd play this. Bussing Arch at this point leads to a loss 100% of the time. The best chance at winning would be to act conflicted between the two of you and hold off, hoping that town actually votes you (with slight prods from me) so that I can hammer. Maaayybe a change in the 1v1 with us as partners makes sense, but it's still not the best shot at winning. And nine times out of ten, Arch would get lynched just because switching off of you would be seen as a scum claim. Then we're back to a 100% town win as your result nails me either way. So no, that really doesn't make sense, and shouldn't be the focus of today.

Deas, you've played a great game. And you not fake guiltied me, I think I'd be town reading you right now. If you end up winning this, well played friend.

I'm not sure how this makes sense. Are you saying that you would have town read DV if he hadn't claimed a guilty on you? Who would be your scum team then? Because assuredly, Bins would have still claimed. Would you have called that a scum claim, or believed her? And apparently, that scum read of Dunker yesterday was a "reaction test". Or were you just lying, because you had planned to maybe push him? Really, I'm not sure what your play would be as town here, because this statement doesn't make sense with your stated reads, regardless of the guilty.

I don't think Bulba votes with DV that quickly as DV's buddy.

Take it a step further: I don't vote that quickly as scum. I wait for town to make the next move and hope they vote town.

Yeah, my team and I all think the Bulba rushed vote was sort of odd and I can see it coming from a scum buddy. With you saying you think it's probably Arch, the partner might think he's doomed and then vote in that scenario. The one thing I don't get then is that Bulba has been pretty much bussing for the last two days.

Look, I know you can't follow my thought process as much, because it was internal, and I wrestled back and forth at work about it. I did mention that I was struggling a bit, but I also said that Arch was read-based while DV was mechanics-based. Two things made me actually put my vote down. 1.) No matter which way I looked at it, I kept coming back to Arch-scum. Every fiber of my being screamed he was scum, and for DV it was just the "I'm not sure Smith puts a 'follow the Cop' mechanic in his game". 2.) Mastina outright told me that the setup wasn't as farfetched as I thought, and that when in doubt, you prioritize play over role. It reminded me of what she said in the Night & Day postgame, and I've been getting moments of deja vu anyway. It sort of confirmed where I was at, and at that point I felt good about the scumread.

I voted Arch because I was so confident in my scumread that I was willing to lose if wrong. That's the short answer. I just didn't see a game state where he was town. So at that point, there was no reason to hold back voting. As I've mentioned before, if I was scum, I'd still be fence sitting on the vote and be going back and forth audibly in thread. Quick voting at this juncture does not help me as scum. And given that Dunker is holding off, pretending to think things over, while saying he scumreads Arch, that tells me that I made the right choice.

Regarding Bulba/Arch, from memory I think something pretty compelling is Bulba's approach to Arch over the last couple of game days, particularly the day xyzzy was lynched. I thought something was wrong and that xyzzy might be town and that Arch was scum, and I actually tried to push for an Arch lynch over a xyzzy one. Bulba made a big deal about how uncomfortable he was with the xyzzy wagon and his main suspect was Archwing, but didn't do anything to change it, and most importantly didn't do anything to push an Archwing wagon. I also think it was a similar deal with the Radja lynch, and I think it was a pretty intentional way to avoid looking bad on the town wagons while also not actually doing anything to change them. This was my main reason for coming up with the Bulba/Arch theory in the first place and I'm feeling pretty good about it now.

I've already told you why I didn't vote Arch then. I wanted to double check and look at that timing post he talked about, but I just didn't have the time or willpower to do so, and I didn't want to just vote him when I was unsure about that. I did get around to that dive the next day, and I was pushing Arch heavily after that. So I'm not sure how you're saying my push on Arch is wrong. Also, if I was trying to get townpoints from the Xyzzy lynch, I would have actually stayed off of it after expressing doubts, instead of jumping back on and hammering.

k so there seemed to be some interesting "coaching" almost from bulba to Deas at the time of the tracker claim. like the way bulba was asking Deas about the exact name of it seemed kinda weird to me? he was pushing deas about it and sus of it, but never really did much about it?

There's day talk. There'd be no need for me to coach him, and if I was trying to set something up, I'd definitely give DV the "right answer", instead of having him dance around my question.

Fake guilty, bulba.

Aren't you supposed to be scum reading me? Why are you talking to me as if I'd be unaware of the actual status of the guilty?

Creature wanted to say that mulch couldn't have faked it all for UCV cause hr didn't do shit for sheep (who was actually scum)

I mean, it's not like UCV was in a game where he was constantly being pressured to give his team mates' thoughts or anything...

Might do some more in-depth stuff tomorrow. Depends on how I feel.

[Bins]

Wow that’s so much effort

[Bins]

Yeah I’m probably going to hammer I just want input from my team

[Archwing]

Bins please wait. Im omw home from work, and when i grt home I've got some stuff creature wants to say.

[DeasVail]

I am V/LA over Easter, but I will check back in every so often in case anyone needs anything from me.

[Archwing]

Okay! so, here we go.

One:

DeasVail is definitely well known and strong enough player to fake a guilty on a town player. Well within their range of play.

Two:

There was already a backup on Ether's normal. Seems weird that for team mafia, they would have two backups in both the normal games.

Three:

I know, Bins, you don't wanna hear the "look, this is town!me" argument, but maybe hear it from creature right? He is able to hard defend himself to the point he's conftown. Please just wait a few more minutes, and listen to everything else.

Four:

Creature would like y'all to know he's salty af that he wasn't allowed to swap in this game, btw.
If you want proof of this, viewtopic.php?p=9936827#p9936827 Look at this post
He posted this during N1 in this game. He was waiting for this game's night phase to be over, because he was suspecting that UCV was gonna be the night kill. Unfortunately, Singersigner quick hammered, and creature didn't get to replace in.
no way does this come from scum!creature. if you know creature you know he cannot fake this shit. he is complete garbage as scum. we all know that
and if my slot really was scum, why the fuck would town!creature want to swap into scum!creature?

For reinforcement, look at this: viewtopic.php?p=9970105#p9970105 this should prove to you that this is not being faked.

six:

in creature's game, town!chesskid caught scum!mastina through his so called "program."
why did he not do that in this game?
why, instead, did he lay low as he did in other scum games (ie: Beneath the Mask)

Seven:

Bulba doesn't bus. ever.

[Archwing]

Bins, please ask EP about what chesskid did in that game. he posted quite a lot. in this game, all he did was make some posts with 0 pushing. he did not use the same mechanics as he did in Invention Mafia.

[Archwing]

and mulch is banned from team mafia, so this is confirmed creature reads right here.

[Archwing]

also, for a little added spice on top,

creature's got some good scum meta on bulba:

scum!Bulbazak chills for a lot of the game, and when we hit LyLo, he gets super pushy. I'm gonna help meta dive this rn. But don't you think if Bulba was town that maybe he would have pushed earlier than just now? seems opportunistic to say the least.
ps; bulba doesn't bus.

[Archwing]

scum!Bulba (which sorta mirrors how bulba's playing here, especially the lack of bussing.): See Bulbafenix viewtopic.php?f=56&t=69088
town!Bulba (which is NOT happening in this game) See Bulbazak viewtopic.php?f=56&t=72208

[Archwing]

Bins, please don't come in and lolhammer right away. take the time to read what i've just posted. this is extremely important.

Creature said scum would definitely keep both you and Dunker alive for the push on me, because they know you are both willing to lazy-hammer, cause you are lazy.

Bins, Creature wants to engage with you. I'm here for a little while tonight. let's talk.

[Bulbazak]

One:

DeasVail is definitely well known and strong enough player to fake a guilty on a town player. Well within their range of play.

WIFOM

Two:

There was already a backup on Ether's normal. Seems weird that for team mafia, they would have two backups in both the normal games.

sigh

I guess I should get around to figuring out how to paraphrase that long mastina post.

Three:

I know, Bins, you don't wanna hear the "look, this is town!me" argument, but maybe hear it from creature right? He is able to hard defend himself to the point he's conftown. Please just wait a few more minutes, and listen to everything else.

WIFOM

Four:

Creature would like y'all to know he's salty af that he wasn't allowed to swap in this game, btw.

Why wasn't he allowed to swap in? This sounds like an excuse along the lines of "I'd love to have come here and conf. town myself, but...".

If you want proof of this, viewtopic.php?p=9936827#p9936827 Look at this post

Okay:

Don't hammer Ghostlin yet btw.

Wait until I come tomorrow.

How is this supposed to prove how upset he was in not being able to join this game? It looks like he just doesn't want Ghostlin hammered.

and if my slot really was scum, why the fuck would town!creature want to swap into scum!creature?

There is zero evidence of Creature wanting to sub in besides your say so, and I'm still not seeing any evidence to how he was unable to sub in.

For reinforcement, look at this: viewtopic.php?p=9970105#p9970105 this should prove to you that this is not being faked.

I think I looked over that post:

Spoiler: For Your Sanity

Okay, I'm going to go line by line here and try to match with my notes. It's been several days, so hopefully I still know what this means.

k so, game started on 20th of Jan.

Actually, the game started on the 22nd. Looking back at our Team PT, we were given all the role PMs on the 19th and took the better part of the day to assign them. I'm not sure how that went for other teams, but the game thread did not open until the 22nd. I looked at the Invention Scum PT to get an idea of when that one opened up, and the first non-mod post wasn't until the 21st. So I'm not sure what this line is in reference to. It's easy to say "Welp, Arch just screwed up and let it slip he's scum.", but that's assuming that the mod opened up the Scum PT that early and Arch's team started posting in there on the 20th (hence game starting). But again, I don't have any way to verify that, and everything I do have points to that still being potentially too early. I also don't think that Arch is talking about team comp discussion here. He'd say so. So not sure what the answer is here, but I am noticing that this is a major time discrepancy in Arch's post.

on 22nd creature wanted UCV to push LLD and skirt skirt.

I have a note here that says "Skirt discrepancy". Not sure what that means, so going to look real quick.
...
Okay, so best that I can tell, it has to do with the way UCV pushed Skirt. Arch says that Creature was the one that wanted UCV to push Skirt, but UCV repeatedly says it's Mulch. The focus is actually incredibly Mulch-centric, and Creature is left out of it until after Dino starts hounding UCV. UCV explodes on Dino, specifically asking if Mulch is not good enough, but you'd think with a focus from the playerlist on what Creature is thinking, that if Creature was actually giving feedback, UCV wouldn't have a problem just giving that straightaway. I don't know. It just doesn't feel right.

Also, for those I asked about if UCV was a clinical player: He gave percentages on how sure his team mates were on Skirt being scum. They're all 100%, except for Creature, who is 99%. He repeats this again later. I've played with Creature, and I've never seen him display that level of doubt if he had a strong scum read. Maybe I just haven't played with him enough, and I've been wrong before, but I don't think Creature is one to say "I'm 99% sure this guy is scum.". He'd just scream "X is scum!" over and over again.

early town reads on dunker bins and a50.
keychain looks bad, thus he makes the first scum team guess of {lld, skirt, keychain}

This is where Mina gets that UCV and Arch are consistent. Compare the above to this UCV post:

I'm not asking you to have Creature read the thread literally this second.

I'm asking you when he has provided input in the past, and if he has been reading this thread.

I've twice requested specifically him to be reading this game.

) Elena is most likely to choose scum from her team 2) eddie succesfully pocketed someone 3) Mathdino's reads seem pretty good 4) We want eddie cane pushed but I'm not 99% 5) Keychain was scummy but then he thinks he must be misreading them 6) LLD is scummy 7) Early game called LLD, skirt skirt, keychain 8) bulba is town 9) almost50 is town cause playing like open 707 10) Bins is town 11) Dunkerdoodles feels town
all posted by creature



here

Scum reads and town reads are the same. I didn't really see it at first, but that's because you have to rearrange what's being said about the town reads. This is also consistent to what he said earlier about Creature's strength on Skirt (something I just covered), but again, that seems like a really weird thing for Creature to say. And given how much Dino had to push to get this, I'm really not sure about the whole thing.

25th says {elena LLD transcend}
also thinks TBone doesn't pick scum and then lurk 'til lynched.

I checked the timeline here, and this doesn't match up. I'm not sure about the team suggestion, but more on the suggestion that Creature thinks T-Bone is town. If that was the case, apparently UCV didn't get the memo, because he started pushing the slot on the 25th.

29th thinks bins being dino's top lynch is wtffff
thinks NSG and dino are the most likely people on your team to pick scum.

I looked all over the UCV ISO from the 29th on, and there's no evidence of a Math scumread.

on the first of feb, thought about pushing chess for scum, then retracted and said stay on havingfitz.

The Chess scumread lines up here. UCV was scumreading Chess at the time. Other than that, "stay on Havingfitz" makes zero sense. UCV wasn't voting the Fitz slot at the time, and hadn't the entire day phase. In fact, his vote was still on Titus at the time. UCV wouldn't vote Fitz until the next day, at which point the wagon was gaining a lot of attention.

A50's post 2053 has a solid case on chesskid scum.

Here's the case being referenced:

CK not using the alleged program in this game is pinging me, and the swap in itself could've been strategically done to play down suspicion on Smocaine (maybe Smocaine couldn't handle it anymore. I don't know). CK may have felt he's done a good job already and could now try to bring his team the in in here.

I actually had to do a Chess ISO dive for a reference, as I'd only read the Inventions scum chat, so thanks for that trip into the jaws of insanity (although it was slightly amusing). Finally found it, and I'm not sure how A50 thinks it'd be any use here. 1.) It was made clear that Chess did not have access to the program, but had seen info on certain select players that were likely to be in the tourney. 2.) He only had the info on those players. 3.) The info was on high level players that would be difficult to read. I'm not sure if anyone thought we actually had anyone that would fit on that list and that Chess/Elli would have tried looking up. T-Bone maybe? CDB? The list would be very small, and that's assuming those names were one of the few that he looked up before Elli took over the tourney.

It makes sense that A50 would be zeroed in on it, since he was trying to break the tournament via tourney-wide VCA. It's conceivable that Creature would have expected something similar, but again, in that same game, Chess made it clear that his having info on Mastina from the program was a fluke and likely not repeatable. In other words, the application of such knowledge was limited, and it was unlikely to be useful again. If Chess did have information to use in this game, he'd likely push it, although he did seem to want to do so at a minimum, as he wasn't sure of the legality of the whole thing. When he brought it up in Inventions, it was more of a "Hey guys! I actually have more proof than what I've presented, and I'm 100% sure, but I can't go any further on this. Just do what I ask, because I didn't want to bring this up in the first place.". So not something he's going to rush in this game and advertise if he did have such info.

Also, he was on vacation at the time. So...

The big thing I took away at the time and after going through ISOs was how hard it was to get any sort of supposed Creature response. It was like pulling teeth. And when UCV finally relented, he acted all angry about it, asking why Mulch wasn't good enough.

six:

in creature's game, town!chesskid caught scum!mastina through his so called "program."
why did he not do that in this game?

This was in the spoilers, but just in case anyone missed it:

I actually had to do a Chess ISO dive for a reference, as I'd only read the Inventions scum chat, so thanks for that trip into the jaws of insanity (although it was slightly amusing). Finally found it, and I'm not sure how A50 thinks it'd be any use here. 1.) It was made clear that Chess did not have access to the program, but had seen info on certain select players that were likely to be in the tourney. 2.) He only had the info on those players. 3.) The info was on high level players that would be difficult to read. I'm not sure if anyone thought we actually had anyone that would fit on that list and that Chess/Elli would have tried looking up. T-Bone maybe? CDB? The list would be very small, and that's assuming those names were one of the few that he looked up before Elli took over the tourney.

It makes sense that A50 would be zeroed in on it, since he was trying to break the tournament via tourney-wide VCA. It's conceivable that Creature would have expected something similar, but again, in that same game, Chess made it clear that his having info on Mastina from the program was a fluke and likely not repeatable. In other words, the application of such knowledge was limited, and it was unlikely to be useful again. If Chess did have information to use in this game, he'd likely push it, although he did seem to want to do so at a minimum, as he wasn't sure of the legality of the whole thing. When he brought it up in Inventions, it was more of a "Hey guys! I actually have more proof than what I've presented, and I'm 100% sure, but I can't go any further on this. Just do what I ask, because I didn't want to bring this up in the first place.". So not something he's going to rush in this game and advertise if he did have such info.

Again, pretty sure this is a red herring that scum want to focus on. The narrative that Arch is trying to spin about "the program" isn't real, and was taken out of context in the original game.

why, instead, did he lay low as he did in other scum games (ie: Beneath the Mask)

Pretty sure Chess wasn't laying low from d2 onward and actively pushed his scumspects.

Seven:

Bulba doesn't bus. ever.

Um...Isn't your whole argument that I bussed Fitz?

[Archwing]

You talked about how much "effort" Bulba had put into his case against me.

but look at what creature just compiled. That amount of effort does not exist in scum!creature. if this slot was scum there is no way he'd be able to pull this shit.