Team Mafia 2018: Game 3 - Random GIFs Game Over

[Archwing]

Um...Isn't your whole argument that I bussed Fitz?

um... no?

[Archwing]

when scum!bulba gets to lylo, scum!bulba doesn't bus, rather goes for the semi-perfect scum win

[Archwing]

you're better in 5p lylo than 3p lylo

[Archwing]

creature wasn't allowed to swap in because he was already in his second nightphase in his game by the time day two started in this one. mod denied the request to swap

[Bulbazak]

So I never ever bus. But somehow, scum me bussed Fitz. So which is it, Arch? Do I bus or not?

P-edit: Sounds like a change in story. And I'm pretty sure if I looked hard enough I'd find an instance of bussing in Lylo under the right cicumstances. But you're right, I normally try not to bus in Lylo. But it's that I don't think anyone should bus in that circumstance unless they have no choice.

Why didn't he try swapping in earlier? I'm pretty sure Inventions was locked down by that point.

[Bulbazak]

Like d1 of this game, there was no reason why he shouldn't have swapped. If he wanted to swap, that was the time to do so: When Math was making a big fuss about it.

[Bulbazak]

And yeah, let's talk about what you've posted, because it's just noise.

[Archwing]

also chess knows you pretty well, bulba. it seems kinda odd that Chess never really wanted to work with you in this game. as well as being teammates with Mastina, you also are a pretty good candidate for his tell-system. town!chess doesn't not-interact with you the way he did in this game.

pedit:

re: Inventions Quote

creature was going to say his final words, and then swap in. "tomorrow" in that context refers to the start of d2 in this game.


re: "22nd creature wanted UCV to push lld and skirt"
creature was sheeping mulch on this, 'cause mulch had heard from some source that both LLD and Skirt wanted to play scum this year.

[Archwing]

UCV was pretty inactive (obviously, as you all know) so it was really hard for creature to get active in this game, and get his reads heard.

[Archwing]

re: swapping

creat was just trying to make sure that town wasn't going to do shit after he had swaped out of his game... and obviously he missed his window because of it.

[Archwing]

its makes so much sense from scum!your perspective to push me and leave the hammer to bins or dunker. they're both really likely to game throw in this situation with a lazy hammer.

[Archwing]

@Dunker

does boon have anything to say about creatures reads or comments? i'm especially curious about the replacing business, too.
same goes for your team representatives, ie: did srceenplay have anything to say about this?

[Archwing]

@Bins, Dunker

do you guys believe this is coming from creature right now?

[Archwing]

i need you guys to just take some time and read through all of this.
don't make any hasty decisions.
still >8 days on deadline at this point.

don't let this quicklynch through... we have time on our side.

[Bulbazak]

Okay, so what mastina said in-depth:

Smith's game is meant to be comparatively balanced to Ether's game.
Ether's game had a Doctor, Backup Doctor, and Neapolitan--this allowed for a game-winning follow-the-cop, and is one of the numerous reasons why Smith hates cop-type roles. The scum were all power roles, including two 1x roleblockers to break the follow-the-cop strategy. But while the scum might have held power, that power was made specifically as a counter to the existing town power.

In Smith's game, we have a Fruit Vendor and a Tracker, with a Backup Tracker and a Doctor claimed--this does not allow for a game-winning follow-the-cop, unless there is only one scum left alive. Smith's balance/design philosophy IS in fact, more or less--"if scum let themselves get into that position/town manage to get in that position, they should be (respectively) punished/rewarded".

There is no scum power flipped, but this is not in of itself damning because MOST Normal games with three scum only have one scum power role (and said scum player is usually who the scum team protects the most)--thus, the town probably only had an AT BEST 1/3 chance of lynching a scum power role, assuming one even exists; the setup's balance works fairly similarly either way with scum power we haven't witnessed or without scum power. (Given a lack of block, the most likely scum power would be a rolecop of some kind, likely gated with an even or odd night modifier.)

Smith's game, without either the Backup Tracker or the Doctor, is still significantly weaker than Ether's game. You CAN make that work if all scum are in fact goons, which is why it's not an absolute surefire thing. The game CAN be made to work with only three PRs...but this is incredibly unlikely given the fairly limited strength of the PRs. Fruit Vendor is a power easily used by scum, so claiming it is not inherently town. It proves that the fruit vendor didn't perform the kill, but this is redundant with the tracker, rather than being augmented by the tracker. (The tracker tracking a VT to nowhere serves the

exact same function

as a fruit vendor giving out fruit does.)

[editor note: mastina went on a tangent where it seems she forgot that scum can both kill and perform an action. I've cut anything related to this speculation out.]

Basically, the tracker serves as the town investigative; the doctor serves as the town protective...but this still leaves the town underpowered, especially if the scum manage to take out the tracker early-on. If the scum manage to take out the tracker on, say, N1...then how is the town ever meant to win if their only other PRs are a (now-useless) Doctor and Fruit Vendor?

...Thus, the backup tracker helps to reduce swing. One of Smith's main problems with cops IS swing, in that if they live long enough to produce results the scum are screwed; if they are taken out too early, the town is screwed. The role being a TRACKER solves the former; the role having a backup solves the latter. YES, this does boost the town to levels of strength which are a little bit on the higher end of things...

...But this is both
-Comparable to Ether's game,
-Acceptable given town general competency level in Normals,
-And doesn't account for how scum very well COULD have that scum PR.

More or less, the answer when boiled down to it remains the same.

The setup CAN make sense without one of the two claims being genuine...but it makes MORE sense with both being true.

While I feel this analysis is good, setup spec is not an exact science. You can get a general feel for a game, but the exact specifics aren't possible to reliably pin down. Which is why I strongly recommend playing off of play rather than roleclaim. If the PLAY makes more sense as coming from town, then it makes more sense coming from town.

In short--setup spec does LOOSELY suggest DV is town, but can't confirm it. Given that it's ambiguous on whether he's town via the setup, play should determine this, and his play is by FAR more likely to be town than Archwing's.

[Archwing]

bulba is a really strong player, he's good at persuading players.

i'm complete garbage, and creature is only good as town. neither of us can formulate this kind of defense unless its the truth.

[Archwing]

ya okay but setup specc'ing mhsmith0 isn't that reliable, because he's pretty unpredictable.

[Archwing]

@dunker, bins

lets say roles were flipped, and you got fake-guiltied tracking to Keychain last night.
how would you react instantly?
how would you compose yourself this deep into the day phase?

[Archwing]

literally, scum!bulba/scum!Deas 's only strategy is to votepark me, the fake guilty, and hopefully one of you two comes along and lolhammers me.

[Archwing]

btw this is still 99% creature dialogue, being paraphrased.

[Bulbazak]

also chess knows you pretty well, bulba. it seems kinda odd that Chess never really wanted to work with you in this game.

I'm pretty sure Chess thinks I'm garbage. Sure, he has more respect for me after Surreptitious, where I nailed 3 of the scum, but I figure that just accounts for him not mocking me and being generally toxic, which I'm thankful for. I think he tried to get me to join him on a wagon a couple of times, but that's going to be the extent of our working together. There's no way he's going to ask me about reads.

as well as being teammates with Mastina, you also are a pretty good candidate for his tell-system.

Nope. I'm more independent than some of the other players, and I think Chess would know that. If I was scum, I'm pretty sure he'd expect me to filter my team mates in a way to eliminate potential tells, if I listened to them at all.

re: Inventions Quote

creature was going to say his final words, and then swap in. "tomorrow" in that context refers to the start of d2 in this game.

its makes so much sense from scum!your perspective to push me and leave the hammer to bins or dunker. they're both really likely to game throw in this situation with a lazy hammer.

If I was scum, I wouldn't leave that up in the air. Bins especially is unpredictable (seriously, most towns would have hammered after you scum told). You don't vote and hope town hammers. You make sure you control the hammer, because towns are stupid and fickle.

i need you guys to just take some time and read through all of this.
don't make any hasty decisions.
still >8 days on deadline at this point.

don't let this quicklynch through... we have time on our side.

We're halfway through the day. I think trying to frame this as a quick lynch is disningenous.

Oh, and you're still not voting the player you should think is 100% scum.

P-edit: I can drop the links, but it looks like Smith is pretty consistent in his design philosophy.

[Bulbazak]

Links:
viewtopic.php?t=68243&f=53&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=67307&f=5&st=0&sk=t&sd= ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?f=123&t=68864&hilit=hider%2A
viewtopic.php?t=68863&f=123&st=0&sk=t&s ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=70108&f=94&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=69499&f=123&st=0&sk=t&s ... er_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=69237&hilit=hider%2A
viewtopic.php?t=72962&f=94&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

[Archwing]

keep in mind, Bulba, you're just as conf!scum to me as Deas is.

[Bulbazak]

What? Do you have a result on Dunker that you've told no one about?

[Archwing]

and it's pretty easy for you to say you'd like to control the lynch, but aren't you controlling the lynch by putting me to L-1? it's a common fallacy to think that the person closer to the lynch is more likely to be scum.