Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[Ausuka]

No we're not lynching shadpearl.

[Ausuka]

Read the start of page 32 again, but, like, slower this time.

[Sando]

No we're not lynching shadpearl.

You, I like you.

[Ausuka]

Wait no I guess shadpearl is scum I didn't see the tracker claim. Ok.

[Sando]

Wait no I guess shadpearl is scum I didn't see the tracker claim. Ok.

I like you less.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Shadpearl
Obvious play is to lynch this today and if he flips town we go for profii tomorrow.

[Sando]

VOTE: Shadpearl
Obvious play is to lynch this today and if he flips town we go for profii tomorrow.

Congrats on ignoring everything that's been said...great contribution.

[havingfitz]

UNVOTE: for claim + results.

Would vote Shad but not sure what count is so I'll hold off for now.

[texcat]

@Texcat Profii and Taly are both on the Shad!SK boat, but you say we've caught scum. Why do you think it's scum and not SK? What do you think of Profii and Taly assuming SK?

I don't think that. We don't know. That's one of the reasons to resolve the situation now. I don't understand if you honestly don't get it, or if you're trying to protect a scum buddy for one more night.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Fitz has given us zero reasons to town read him, but I can't help but think that he'd be trying harder if he were scum.

Intent to hammer Profii.

Maybe but he has been busy. He just may not be capable of putting the effort required to play scum due to time.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

tbh I'm townreading Shadpearl because I don't think scum would've hammered yesterday.

I thought the majority of his ISO is town but the way he spoke about Almost50 and my predecessor at the start of Day 2 strongly implies he isn’t the last doctor.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

UNVOTE:

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Sando, talk to me about texcat.

[Kopherald]

We might be SK-dependent at this point, but whatever.

Kop was saying this same thing in our PT yesterday. I still don't get how that would work. Could you explain, please?

-Brass

[Creature]

I mean like SK at this point would want mafia dead before they find him/her.

[texcat]

We might be SK-dependent at this point, but whatever.

Creature, you're not suggesting that we leave the SK alive in hopes that they kill mafia for us, are you?

[Shadpearl]

I guess I miscounted earlier?

Also- This is hilarious.

Firstly- We have a tracker? What? ( ._.) I thought it was just doctors and serial killer this game? (I'm not a tracker or a doctor. Sorry, Taly)

Secondly- Profii, you actually just shot yourself in the foot, smart one. I TOWNREAD Aneninen like forever ago. (Someone ISO and find that for me please). Shoulda said I tried to kill Taly or Doom or someone that I haven't actually already given a firm read on.

Thirdly- TRACKER WHY HAVEN'T YOU BEEN HELPFUL THIS GAME?!

Obviously, my vote goes here. Phew. Didn't expect an easy day today.

VOTE: Profii

I may not make it until I'm back tonight, but I'm cool if I go down. I've had a great time playing with you all. :) Thank you for the fun and I hope to see you guys in more games! ^-^

Side Note: Still have to get Days 4&5 right! 4 will be easy, but try to do your best on 5! :3 Good Luck!

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Shadpearl
Obvious play is to lynch this today and if he flips town we go for profii tomorrow.

Congrats on ignoring everything that's been said...great contribution.

There's a guilty with no CC. We lynch the guilty. It's not a revolutionary concept.

[Shadpearl]

Ah! Just double checked the first page - We DO actually have a tracker. Well, derp. I feel smart x)

Tracker claim IS a lie though. If I was scum, Aneninen would be really helpful to keep around since her posts are more confusing than helpful. You have to really work at them to get stuff. And, you know, why would I kill someone I townread? D'oy!

[Almost50]

@Shad: I should learn to play games without reading the setup. That must be fun because a lot of players are doing it of late.

[Kopherald]

At this point, I don't want to lynch Shad or Profii.

If Profii is telling the truth, we could potentially lynch the last doctor, or lynch a SK which isn't a bad thing you would think but he could be beneficial for one night because he could take down another scum member.

If lynching Shad flips over the last doctor, we are going to lose a doctor, and a tracker. That would royally fuck us.

Shad flipping doctor, obviously discredits A50 claim, but A50 could have claimed it to try bait the night kill as a VT knowing that he wouldn't be CC.

- Kop

[profii]

Ok so we’ve had some significant reactions to my claim.

Taly-
Had a think about it and vote parked feeling that lynching the guilty is a good idea. I’m to towning this because I did the same

Texcat-
Practically a naked vote on shadpearl and then almost a change of subject from the claim to my previous reads. I am reading the thread in order, I’ve flicked through but now writing down my reads - first impression is this is the most anti town reaction.

Creature-
Wants to town side the SK- i have not experienced this happening but the idea seems pro town if it’s possible to leash a SK - KopHerald is in the boat too.


A50 is going on the principle guilty + no cc = proceed. As is Ausuka, more on this later


Sando looks mainly into the possibility that I am fake claiming. This is good I think because it’s certainly something I want to look at too, he has opened my eyes up to some reasons for not lynching the guilty more on this to come...


LUV and HavingFitz - tentatively removed votes and didn’t do much else

So for me

Town bin : Creature / KopHerald / Sando

Town lean : Taly, almost 50

Anti-town potentials: Shadpearl, Ausuka, Texcat, HavingFitz, LUV


So, I think there is legs in not voting ShadPearl. From both anti town points of view, I am now a threat to them, so they may both target me meaning 1 night kill. That’s obviously better than 2 and the tracker flip confirms Shad so insta lynch or if he is the SK if you can leash then wonderful

The alternative is the anti-town team target Shad pearl and it confs me, so the doc can help me play follow the tracker.

I would probably say I am differentiating Ausuka and A50 based on the gambit. I don’t think anti town would gambit so even though they had similar reactions, a50 has that in town points column.

HavingFitz and Luv I would say have identical reactions so this feels like waiting to see where the game will go and being non commital


So let’s consider the numbers

11 player
2 vs 1 vs 8

We lynch a guilty (10)
Worst case 2 NKs if he’s scum rather than SK (8)

Then next day it could go down to 5 players if we don’t get any help


I think overall I’d like to lynch the guilty - if it is the SK then we stop a Nk which could give us an extra lynch and we may get tracker conf towns out of it


If we are not voting the guilty I think I’d lean towards that naked vote of Texcat but I’d need convincing to do so

[Ausuka]

Shadpearl has claimed VT, there is no tracker counterclaim, and we're not letting go of scum because they could potentially be a SK.

[Sando]

Sando, talk to me about texcat.

Lynching within the profii/shad pool is a bad idea, and there's probably 99% chance of 2 non-town outside of that, so we should look for that possibility, here's my reasoning on Tex/Aus:

Scum-Profii probably does not have scum on his wagon.

Fitz pretty much conftown here
A50 close to conftown, I don't believe A50 busses here, leaves him solo-scum with at least one person, maybe 2, promising to seriously look at lynching him at that point, I think he relies on his doc claim for now. Ok fine A50 can be conftown in this world.
Scum probably don't put both in the same wagon, Kop and Creature get town-points
Leaves Aus, Tex, Shad uninvolved in either wagon <- scum in here.
Shad isn't scumpartner with Profii
Leaves Aus/Tex as scum

Tracker-Profii has probably one scum on wagon.

Taly/LUV/Sando main protagonists
Fitz puts L-2 and A50 puts L-1
L-2 vote most scummy, although with Shad in the game could be baiting the quickhammer from A50 (semi-joking only)
I still don't believe Taly and/or LUV are scum.
Fitz very likely scum, Shad is scum/SK, A50 further muddies the water and inexplicably survives the night
Left-over = Creature/Kopherald/Aus/Tex <--- Scum in here
Kopherald has pushed hard for anti-Profii wagon, townpoints here
Creature is that guy
Aus/Tex have sidelined themselves, scumpoints here

So in my mind we've got:
Scum!Profii = Aus/Tex as scumbuddy
Tracker!Profii = Fitz+Shad, A50 just itching for a lynch, but inexplicably survives yet another night. Aus/Tex again to my mind most likely scum partners.

[Creature]

We might be SK-dependent at this point, but whatever.

Creature, you're not suggesting that we leave the SK alive in hopes that they kill mafia for us, are you?

Definitely not. If Shadpearl is SK he's likely useless now.