Open 717: C9++ [GAME OVER:TOWN WINS]


User avatar
Hoopla
Hoopla
User avatar
User avatar
Hoopla
Posts: 10788
Joined: October 12, 2008

Post Post #675 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:22 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 673, UglyDuck wrote:No one in confirmed yet. And you don't call the shots either. The only difference between your opinion vs my opinion on when I reveal my information is that my opinion is the one that matters.

Also, you should absolutely limit discussion on this topic prior to full claim list being completed.
Well, everyone has claimed now, so the dynamics of today essentially become "is this cop claim truthful or not", or as I like to call it: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Cop.

Nobody acts or votes until your information is revealed, so there's no point waiting. I don't care if you think you can glean ~reactions~ or whatever -- if you have a guilty, cool. Tell us, then we lynch you or the guilty. If you have innocents, cool -- we can now potentially work out the game from a PoE perspective. Either way, we're going to need a lot of time to deduce whether your results seem likely and your claim is truthful. The more time you faff about, the less time we have to work the game out together.
User avatar
UnaBombaH
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6538
Joined: June 27, 2017
Location: Finland

Post Post #676 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:24 pm

Post by UnaBombaH »

In post 673, UglyDuck wrote:No one in confirmed yet.
No one is confirmed until the flip at this point.. :facepalm:
Don't try to be a "hero" at this - I've seen enough games lost because of an investigative who tried to mystify their play, or make the game more dramatic.
Your next post ought to hold your FULL CLAIM.
I'm going to nitpick your ISO anyway, in case you crumbed or ever went against the results you're about to claim. :]

If you refuse to share results now, or there are any contradictions.. :]
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed."
-Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
User avatar
Hoopla
Hoopla
User avatar
User avatar
Hoopla
Posts: 10788
Joined: October 12, 2008

Post Post #677 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:38 pm

Post by Hoopla »

So, if there's no SK, it means we're either in setup TTTT (no additional PR's and UglyDuck is lying) or TT (UglyDuck is actually a Cop). Looking at the odds of each setup occurring from a purely statistical standpoint gives us this:

TTTTTTT - 0.7%
TTTTTT - 5.4%
TTTTT - 16.4%
TTTT - 27.4%
TTT - 27.4%
TT - 16.4%
T - 5.4%
0T - 0.7%


If we rule out all the setups except TTTT and TT, here are the odds of each setup being true:

TTTT - 62.5%
TT - 37.5%


Cop always claims Cop in TT as that is his truthful role. TTTT comes up more frequently, but scum won't always fakeclaim -- so it legit is a close call, a near coinflip imo, and it's why UglyDuck needs to get on with claiming results, so we can interrogate him.
User avatar
Myloninja13
Myloninja13
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Myloninja13
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2302
Joined: January 5, 2018

Post Post #678 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:24 pm

Post by Myloninja13 »

I'm sorry UglyDuck, but I see zero reason to hold back on results. Assuming you're telling the truth, if you have a guilty result, you should show that as early as possible so we can utilise this day to find any links or focus on details. If you leave it until the last day to say a guilty or even a clear, it'll mean we waste time in the day period not looking for specific information.

But aside from that, we've all claimed so it's time to get LYLO on the road. The rules are simple, no voting until we've all had time to analyse and ask questions to each other.
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #679 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:25 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

@Kop, who do you think the mafia is?
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #680 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:27 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

I want everyone's opinion on lynching Kop.
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #681 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:52 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

I wonder why did mafia kill Pinturricchio and Gamma Emerald instead of an experienced and helpful player like Hoopla.
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #682 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:24 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

In post 367, Hoopla wrote:Hang on, let me try it on someone else. This is just a normal vote.

UNVOTE:
Vote: Kop
Why did you vote Kop at this point? While lynching Sesq?
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #683 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:34 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

@laser
your Una read and
@una
your laser read, please.
LaserGuy
LaserGuy
Goon
LaserGuy
Goon
Goon
Posts: 465
Joined: November 2, 2017

Post Post #684 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:50 am

Post by LaserGuy »

In post 683, Ok Nyeo wrote:
@laser
your Una read and
@una
your laser read, please.
Post-reread, I think Una and Kop are probably both mafia. Unsure about the third... was thinking it was Duck before the claim.
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #685 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:57 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

Ugly, why you did not CC when JDD claimed cop?

Una, what do you claim?
LaserGuy
LaserGuy
Goon
LaserGuy
Goon
Goon
Posts: 465
Joined: November 2, 2017

Post Post #686 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:58 am

Post by LaserGuy »

Una claimed VT in 674
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #687 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:58 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

In post 674, UnaBombaH wrote:VT here.
Delaying claiming your results makes it seem as if you need time to come up with "results". :]

And as this is LyLo, this is the moment where scum would def. fakeclaim.
Sorry, I missed this.

Ugly, what is your results?
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #688 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:02 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

In post 487, Kop wrote:Town reads on you, Pin, Gamma.

Null on Neyo, laser, ugly.

Suspicious of JJD, Mylo, Una, Fred.
Why did you scumread Una?
LaserGuy
LaserGuy
Goon
LaserGuy
Goon
Goon
Posts: 465
Joined: November 2, 2017

Post Post #689 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:07 am

Post by LaserGuy »

In post 675, Hoopla wrote:we can now potentially work out the game from a PoE perspective.
This is an odd oversight on your part. If we are in a TT setup, then that guarantees that there is a mafia godfather. We need to be very careful trusting any innocent results even if we believe Duck's claim.
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #690 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:14 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

I believe that the game will be solved once Ugly posts his results and people answers my questions.
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #691 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:21 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

In post 665, LaserGuy wrote:
In post 487, Kop wrote:Suspicious of JJD, Mylo, Una, Fred.
Why are you scumreading Una here?
Oh I also wondered that.
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #692 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:26 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

I have 2 scumteams at this point with 1 people changing. This means I have 2 confirmed scums.

I am excited to see Ugly's result
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #693 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:52 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

Oh wait there is actually only 1 scumteam possible.
User avatar
UnaBombaH
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6538
Joined: June 27, 2017
Location: Finland

Post Post #694 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:57 am

Post by UnaBombaH »

In post 684, LaserGuy wrote:Post-reread, I think Una and Kop are probably both mafia.
Interested in hearing what landed you here! :]

What interests me even further though, is your implementation of UglyDuck into this.

1. Why do you think me/Kop/UglyDuck would work as a team?

2. If you honestly thought he was a likely part of a scum-trio, why would him claiming PR in assumed LyLo mean anything?
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed."
-Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
User avatar
UnaBombaH
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6538
Joined: June 27, 2017
Location: Finland

Post Post #695 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:59 am

Post by UnaBombaH »

In post 692, Ok Nyeo wrote:I have 2 scumteams at this point with 1 people changing. This means I have 2 confirmed scums.

I am excited to see Ugly's result
Don't want to come across rude, but after your earlier posting, I have to say I'm feeling a bit sceptical.. :]
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed."
-Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
User avatar
UnaBombaH
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6538
Joined: June 27, 2017
Location: Finland

Post Post #696 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:04 am

Post by UnaBombaH »

In post 680, Ok Nyeo wrote:I want everyone's opinion on lynching Kop.
I reread D1 during the night phase, and was wondering whether it would make sense in LyLo.. I assume we should've (and probably WOULD've) ended there D2/D3 if that whole JJD-debacle hadn't happened, but at this gamestate I'm not sure what to do with him..

He is in my second lynchpool, but then again, so are you. :]
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed."
-Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
User avatar
UnaBombaH
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6538
Joined: June 27, 2017
Location: Finland

Post Post #697 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:09 am

Post by UnaBombaH »

Furthermore, what on earth happened here?
In post 663, LaserGuy wrote:*Sigh*

This is such a troll game.

Off the top of my head, my reads are something like:
Town
Hoopla
Unabomber
Kop
Myloninja
Ok Nyeo
Ugly Duck
Scum
INTO
In post 684, LaserGuy wrote:Post-reread, I think Una and Kop are probably both mafia. Unsure about the third... was thinking it was Duck before the claim.
So..I know you said you apparently reread, but 2/3 of your top-townreads just flopped into "probably both mafia"?
Feels weird.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed."
-Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Ok Nyeo
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Ok Nyeo
Goon
Goon
Posts: 122
Joined: March 10, 2018

Post Post #698 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:15 am

Post by Ok Nyeo »

In post 697, UnaBombaH wrote:Furthermore, what on earth happened here?
In post 663, LaserGuy wrote:*Sigh*

This is such a troll game.

Off the top of my head, my reads are something like:
Town
Hoopla
Unabomber
Kop
Myloninja
Ok Nyeo
Ugly Duck
Scum
INTO
In post 684, LaserGuy wrote:Post-reread, I think Una and Kop are probably both mafia. Unsure about the third... was thinking it was Duck before the claim.
So..I know you said you apparently reread, but 2/3 of your top-townreads just flopped into "probably both mafia"?
Feels weird.
What is your Laser read?
User avatar
UnaBombaH
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
UnaBombaH
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6538
Joined: June 27, 2017
Location: Finland

Post Post #699 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:15 am

Post by UnaBombaH »

In post 681, Ok Nyeo wrote:I wonder why did mafia kill Pinturricchio and Gamma Emerald instead of an experienced and helpful player like Hoopla.
This is a reasonable line of thought in a way, but it always leads us into an endless swamp of WIFOM.
My personal guess is that Gamma/Pintu were more accurate with their reads than Hoopla has been..?
Or Hoopla is a godtier scum, who has also been ballsy enough to ride every mislynch so far.. :lol:

Hoopla has been one of the two obv.towns so far this game, Gamma was the other.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed."
-Flavor Leaf to scum!Una

Return to “Completed Open Games”